Elections

SÃO PAULO, Brasil — Cuatro años de locura están cerca de terminar. En una tensa segunda vuelta, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva se impuso sobre el presidente Jair Bolsonaro con el 50,9 por ciento de los votos. A menos que las cosas tomen un giro radical —el temido golpe de Estado que lleva meses cerniéndose sobre el país—, Da Silva será, el 1 de enero, presidente de Brasil.No fue fácil. El mes pasado ha sido una síntesis de la era Bolsonaro. La desinformación ha estado desenfrenada. (El comité de campaña de Da Silva tuvo que confirmar, a raíz de los rumores difundidos en las redes sociales, que “no ha hecho un pacto con el diablo, ni ha hablado nunca con Satán”). También ha habido amplios debates sobre canibalismo, de francmasonería y de la supuestamente deseable política de la época medieval. Y, por supuesto, ha estado presente la amenaza de la violencia política, con la aparente bendición de las altas instancias.Al menos, por el bien de nuestra salud mental colectiva, podemos decir que Bolsonaro ha sido derrotado. No es que el país esté demasiado en sintonía con Da Silva y la política de centroizquierda del Partido de los Trabajadores, que gobernó el país durante 13 años, hasta 2016. Se trata más bien de que los últimos 4 años con Bolsonaro nos han demostrado lo bajo que puede caer un país, y estamos desesperados por salir de la ciénaga del abatimiento político.Hay muchas cosas que no echaré de menos de este gobierno: su desatención asesina, su arraigada corrupción, su fanatismo. Uno de los grandes alivios es que ya no tendremos que hablar de cosas demenciales. Brasil, al menos, puede volver a algo parecido a la cordura.Es difícil creer lo mucho que ha cambiado el debate público. Hace 9 años, los brasileños salieron a la calle a manifestarse en defensa del transporte público gratuito. ¿Cuánto nos hemos alejado hoy de ese tipo de mentalidad cívica? Ahora nos pasamos buena parte del tiempo afirmando (cada vez con más exasperación) que la virología existe y que el cambio climático no es un bulo globalista.Nos da miedo salir a la calle a manifestarnos y que eso le dé al gobierno una excusa para intentar dar un golpe de Estado. Creemos que cualquier civil que pasa a nuestro lado en coche puede ir armado. Sabemos que vestir de color rojo se considerará una declaración política. (Hace poco, un cardenal católico brasileño fue criticado por su tradicional vestimenta roja, lo que demuestra que ni siquiera el clero está libre de sospechas). No nos atrevemos a comentar las noticias con nuestros vecinos, por temor a lo que puedan decir. Nunca hubo tanto silencio en los ascensores.Lo cierto es que en la sociedad brasileña siempre han dominado las fuerzas conservadoras. Ninguno de los avances de las dos últimas décadas se consiguió con facilidad: el programa de ayudas sociales Bolsa Família, la discriminación positiva en las universidades y el sector público o el matrimonio igualitario. Todos fueron objeto de burlas, si no de la franca indignación, de la mayoría de los conservadores. Pero estas batallas las libraron la centroizquierda y la centroderecha, que entonces eran lo bastante razonables para entablar un debate democrático. Eso cambió cuando llegó Bolsonaro a la escena nacional. Poco a poco al principio, y luego súbitamente, estalló una represa de extremismo derechista reprimido.Día tras día, la integridad del discurso público se ha ido diluyendo con las afirmaciones conspirativas, turbopropulsadas por las redes sociales y alentadas por Bolsonaro. Nos hemos visto obligados a perder el tiempo refutando públicamente la teoría de que las vacunas contienen nanorrobots, o que la selva amazónica “no se puede incendiar”, como dijo él. Toda esa energía, que se podría haber dedicado a exigir un mejor sistema de salud pública, o unas medidas más rotundas contra el cambio climático, se perdió en combatir espeluznantes sinsentidos.Pero Bolsonaro no nos dejó más remedio en ningún momento, hasta las elecciones. Existen pocas dudas de que él aspiraba a la autocracia y que aprovecharía cualquier oportunidad para mantenerse en el poder; la necesidad de derrotarlo se volvió absoluta, con prioridad sobre cualquier otra preocupación. Eso explica la amplitud de la coalición en torno a la candidatura de Da Silva, compuesta incluso por antiguos adversarios del centroderecha. La contienda electoral se redujo a una simple disyuntiva: a favor o en contra de Bolsonaro.En realidad, no es tan sencillo. Para empezar, no existe una solución tangible al problema de que las redes sociales parezcan empujar a los ciudadanos a posturas más extremas, agravando así la polarización. Después, los políticos avalados por Bolsonaro son hoy parte consolidada del paisaje político. Más de una docena de gobernadores pro-Bolsonaro, de los 27 del país, ganaron las elecciones, y su partido es el mayoritario en el Senado, tras obtener 8 de los 27 escaños que se disputaban. (Algunos de los nuevos senadores, que permanecerán en el poder los siguientes 8 años, son exministros del gobierno de Bolsonaro.)La extrema derecha también ha aumentado su influencia en el Congreso: el partido del presidente obtuvo 99 escaños en la Cámara Baja, compuesta por 513 miembros. Puede que Bolsonaro abandone su cargo, pero el bolsonarismo no está ni mucho menos acabado.Esto plantea graves desafíos para el gobierno entrante. No solo una derecha envalentonada será una molestia constante para Da Silva, sino que además lo obligará a depender de los partidos de centro, lo que despeja el camino al intercambio de favores —que con frecuencia genera corrupción— que ha perjudicado a la democracia brasileña desde su origen. Aun así, no se debe infravalorar esta oportunidad para emprender una nueva trayectoria política. Se podría desplazar a la extrema derecha de vuelta a los márgenes, tras haber ocupado la presidencia. Como mínimo, quizá tengamos un gobierno más preocupado por la creciente desigualdad y el hambre que por el número de seguidores en sus carreras en motocicleta. Eso por sí solo ya es un bálsamo.Y lo que es fundamental: los brasileños deberían poder volver a hablar de temas más urgentes, como el déficit de vivienda del país, la educación pública, la policía militar y el racismo. Tal vez podríamos incluso hablar de cosas que nos interesan y nos asombran, que nos resultan placenteras. (Tortugas y astronomía, ¿se apunta alguien?) Después de todo lo que hemos pasado, nos merecemos disfrutar de un cierto respiro de la locura.Vanessa Barbara es editora del sitio web literario A Hortaliça, autora de dos novelas y dos libros de no ficción en portugués y colaboradora de la sección de Opinión del Times. More

As we approach the midterm elections, most political coverage I see frames the contest as a struggle between Republicans taking advantage of a bad economy and Democrats trying to scare voters about the G.O.P.’s regressive social agenda. Voters do, indeed, perceive a bad economy. But perceptions don’t necessarily match reality.In particular, while political reporting generally takes it for granted that the economy is in bad shape, the data tell a different story. Yes, we have troublingly high inflation. But other indicators paint a much more favorable picture. If inflation can be brought down without a severe recession — which seems like a real possibility — future historians will consider economic policy in the face of the pandemic a remarkable success story.When assessing the state of the economy, what period should we use for comparison? I’ve noted before that Republicans like to compare the current economy with an imaginary version of January 2021, one in which gas was $2 a gallon but less pleasant realities, like sky-high deaths from Covid and deeply depressed employment, are airbrushed from the picture. A much better comparison is with February 2020, just before the pandemic hit with full force.So how does the current economy compare with the eve of the pandemic?First, we’ve had a more or less complete recovery in jobs and production. The unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, is right back where it was before the virus struck. So is the percentage of prime-age adults employed. Gross domestic product is close to what the Congressional Budget Office was projecting prepandemic.This good news shouldn’t be taken for granted. In the early months of the pandemic, there were many predictions that it would lead to “scarring,” persistent damage to jobs and growth. The sluggish recovery from the 2007-9 recession was still fresh in economists’ memories. So the speed with which we’ve returned to full employment is remarkable, so much so that we might dub it the Great Recovery.Still, while workers may have jobs again, hasn’t their purchasing power taken a big hit from inflation? The answer may surprise you.In September, consumer prices were 15 percent higher than they were on the eve of the pandemic. However, average wages were up by 14 percent, almost matching inflation. Wages of nonsupervisory workers, who make up more than 80 percent of the work force, were up 16 percent. So there wasn’t a large hit to real wages overall, although gas and food — which aren’t much affected by policy, but matter a lot to people’s lives — did become less affordable.Obligatory note: There are other measures of both prices and wages, and if you pick and choose you can make the story look a bit worse or a bit better. More important, some Americans are especially exposed to prices that have gone up a lot. On average, however, there hasn’t been a huge hit to living standards.But won’t bringing inflation down require an ugly recession? Maybe, and widespread predictions of recession may be taking a toll on public perceptions. But they are predictions, not an established fact — and many economists don’t agree with those predictions. I won’t rehash that ongoing debate here, except to say that there are plausible arguments to the effect that disinflation will be much easier this time than it was after the 1970s.Despite what I’ve said, however, the public has very negative economic perceptions. Doesn’t that tell us that the economy really is in bad shape?No, it doesn’t. People know how well they, themselves, are doing. Their views about the national economy, however, can diverge sharply from their personal experience.A Federal Reserve survey found that in 2021 there was a huge gap between the rising number of people with a positive view of their own finances and the falling number with a positive view of the economy; perceptions about the local economy, which people can see with their own eyes, were somewhere in between. I suspect that when we get results for 2022 they’ll look similar.To be fair, the resurgence of inflation after decades of quiescence, combined with fears of possible recession, has unnerved many Americans. The point, however, isn’t that the public is wrong to be concerned; it is that negative public views of the economy don’t refute the proposition that the economy is doing well in many though not all dimensions.Now, I’m not suggesting that Democrats spend their final campaigning days telling voters that the economy is actually just fine. It isn’t.But Democrats shouldn’t concede that the overall economy is in bad shape, either. Some very good things have happened on their watch, above all a jobs recovery that has exceeded almost everyone’s expectations. And they have every right to point out that while Republicans may denounce inflation, Republicans have no plan whatsoever to reduce it.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

But he has not conceded Brazil’s presidential election.Supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro watched as the results of Brazil’s presidential election were announced on Sunday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesLula defeats Bolsonaro in BrazilBrazilians elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, to lead the country. Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s divisive far-right leader, narrowly lost the election.Far-right lawmakers, conservative pundits and many of Bolsonaro’s supporters recognized his opponent’s victory, but Bolsonaro himself has yet to concede. Here are live updates.Lula, as the president-elect is known, made climate a cornerstone of his campaign and has vowed to protect the Amazon. Lula will likely work to undo Bolsonaro-era policies that accelerated the destruction of the rainforest, but congressional opposition will probably limit his agenda.Analysis: Bolsonaro’s silence is becoming increasingly worrying because he has been warning for months that he might not accept defeat. His efforts to undermine Brazil’s election system drew concern at home and abroad.Lula: The 77-year-old president-elect also led Brazil during its boom in the first decade of the century. He left office with an 80 percent approval rating but then was convicted on corruption charges and spent 580 days in prison. The convictions were annulled last year after Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that the judge in his cases was biased.Bolsonaro: His volatile term was marked by clashes with the courts, attacks on democratic institutions and a pandemic that killed more people than any other country but the U.S. Bolsonaro’s political immunity ends once he leaves office on Jan. 1, and he faces a variety of investigations that could gain steam.Some people tried to swim to the fallen structure and climb up its tangled netting. Others were swept away.Ajit Solanki/Associated PressA deadly Indian bridge collapseAt least 134 people died on Sunday — many of them schoolchildren on vacation during Diwali — when a historic bridge collapsed in the western Indian state of Gujarat.In the midst of India’s most festive season, pedestrians had packed the suspension bridge, which was built in the Victorian era and had newly reopened. The 755-foot-long bridge (about 230 meters) is a famous tourist destination because of its sensation of swaying; people had bought tickets for about 20 cents.The State of the WarGrain Deal: After accusing Ukraine of attacking its ships in Crimea, Russia withdrew from an agreement allowing the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. The move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination aimed at lowering global food prices and combating hunger.Turning the Tables: With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has an artillery advantage over Russia in the southern Kherson region, erasing what had been a critical asset for Moscow.Fears of Escalation: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia repeated the unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb, as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was seeking a pretext to escalate the war.A Coalition Under Strain: President Biden is facing new challenges keeping together the bipartisan, multinational coalition supporting Ukraine. The alliance has shown signs of fraying with the approach of the U.S. midterm elections and a cold European winter.After people grabbed the netting to make the bridge shimmy, as countless others had done before them, the cables suddenly snapped, spilling people into the river.Now, India is asking why its infrastructure has failed so calamitously once again. The bridge had been opened without a “fitness certificate” or the authorities’ permission, an official told local news media. The company running the bridge blamed the victims, but it is unclear why it allowed so many on the bridge at once.Politics: Gujarat is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state. An opposition leader said that leaders of his party — which has governed the state for more than two decades — announced the bridge’s opening as a “Diwali gift” to the people of the town without ensuring its safety.How Russia pays for its warWestern nations imposed sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine. But the punishments may have only limited effect: The value of Russia’s exports actually grew after the invasion, a Times analysis shows.The volume of Russia’s imports has plunged as sanctions and trade limits went into effect, but a few countries have deepened their relationships with Russia since the war began. Imports from Turkey have increased by 113 percent, and Chinese imports have increased 24 percent.Russia remains one of the world’s most important producers of oil, gas and raw materials. Many countries have found living without Russian raw materials incredibly difficult, and the high price of oil and gas in the last year has offset revenue lost to sanctions. India and China have emerged as much bigger buyers of Russian crude, albeit at a discounted rate.Infrastructure: Russian strikes knocked out most of Kyiv’s water.Grain: After suspending its participation in a grain deal, Russia said it won’t guarantee security for any cargo vessels crossing the Black Sea. Some African countries face immediate pain from its suspension.THE LATEST NEWSThe Seoul CrushPeople came to a makeshift memorial for the victims in Seoul.Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesOnly 137 police officers were in the area in Seoul where more than 150 people died in a Halloween crowd crush. For comparison, the police dispatched 1,300 officers for a BTS performance last month in Busan, which drew 55,000.The authorities also underestimated the size of the crowd, which swelled to 130,000. A politician in the opposition called it a “man-made disaster.”More than 100 of the dead were in their 20s.Asia PacificChina launched the third and final module of its Tiangong space station.Chinese stocks whipsawed yesterday. The volatility may reflect investors’ unease about Xi Jinping’s tightening grip on power as China’s leader.Gautam Adani is Asia’s richest man. His business decisions could help determine whether India helps the world avert a climate catastrophe.U.S. NewsThe Supreme Court heard arguments on college admissions policies, and the conservative majority seemed skeptical of affirmative action. Legal abortions fell around six percent in the two months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.The trial of Donald Trump’s company began in New York yesterday.“This case is about greed and cheating,” a prosecutor told jurors.Science TimesAn artist’s impression of a “planet killer” asteroid, which had been hidden by the sun’s glare.DOE FNAL / DECam / CTIO / NOIRLab / NSF / AURA /J. da Silva – Space EngineScientists have identified an asteroid that poses a distant threat to Earth.Cholera is spreading: Droughts, floods and wars have forced many around the world to live in unsanitary conditions.A new study found that large groups of insects can create an atmospheric electrical charge as strong as those created by thunderstorms.In 2020, an enormous telescope in Puerto Rico collapsed. There is no plan to rebuild it, and astronomers and islanders are in mourning.A Morning ReadFor 8-year-old Shaffan Muhammad Ghulam to leave Australia would most likely be a death sentence, his doctors say.David Dare Parker for The New York TimesAustralia is considered a world leader in health care. But the country, along with neighboring New Zealand, is among the very few to routinely reject potential migrants on the basis of medical needs. That can leave families with one ill or disabled member stuck in legal limbo.CHINA INSIGHTIn the minutes before Hu Jintao was led away, he appeared to be reaching for a document on the table.The New York Times; video by CNA, via ReutersWhat happened to Hu Jintao?Nothing unscripted happens at the Communist Party congress in China. Nothing unscripted is allowed to happen.But last week, Hu Jintao, who once led China and was seated next to Xi Jinping, was abruptly led out of the closing ceremony. His apparently reluctant departure was the lone disruption in the meeting, where China’s leaders are anointed twice a decade, and analysts have said the chaos of the moment suggested that it was not planned.The moment led to wild speculation: Was Hu, 79, suffering from poor health, as Chinese state media would later report? Or was he being purged in a dramatic show by Xi, China’s current leader, for the world to see?A Times video analysis offers a clue. Hu — who was historically the only person with the stature to challenge the leader — was all but ignored by Xi; Li Keqiang, China’s premier; and other top politicians as he was escorted away. After he left, only Xi remained in the spotlight, an empty chair beside him.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookMichael Kraus for The New York TimesWelsh rarebit is an easy, cheesy late-night snack.Real EstateIf you’ve got a spare $4.6 million, check out this abandoned-fort-turned-estate in Rajasthan, in northwest India.PhotographyBoris Mikhailov is Ukraine’s greatest artist, our critic writes.The World Through a LensThere’s a circus at sea.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Bit of tomfoolery (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The U.S. tested the first hydrogen bomb 70 years ago in the Marshall Islands.“The Daily” is about Xi Jinping.You can reach Amelia and the team at [email protected]. More

PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Allan Fung, a former mayor who would be the first Republican in more than 20 years to represent this city in Congress, could hardly make it five feet without being stopped by a supporter on a recent Thursday evening as he tried to maneuver his way from the lobby of a Crowne Plaza to a tent where local business owners had gathered to meet him.In nearby Connecticut, George Logan, a Republican former state senator, switched effortlessly between Spanish and English as he went door to door telling voters in suburban New Britain that he wanted to lower their taxes.“I want to work with Democrats and Republicans,” Mr. Logan, a former state senator, said in an interview between door knocks. “There is no one congressman or woman that I agree with on every topic, 100 percent of the time.”Farther north in Maine, former Representative Bruce Poliquin says in his ads that he wants to bring “Maine common sense” back to Congress, working to distance himself from the far-right tilt of his party as he campaigns to reclaim the seat he lost to Representative Jared Golden four years ago.In an aggressive push in the homestretch of the midterm congressional campaign, Republicans have stepped up their efforts to lay claim to seats in New England, a region that once boasted a proud tradition of electing independent-minded Republicans, but that has more recently slid out of reach of a party that has lurched to the right.They have done so by promoting candidates who are billing themselves as centrists with broad appeal — a far different brand from the hard-right figures and election deniers who make up the critical mass of the G.O.P. — hoping to bolster their chances of winning a substantial House majority in a cycle that has favored Republicans.In Rhode Island, Allan Fung, the former mayor of Cranston and a two-time candidate for governor, is campaigning for Congress on fighting inflation and increasing public safety.Philip Keith for The New York TimesThe turf has hardly been friendly to the G.O.P. in recent years. Republican representation in New England was nearly wiped out in 2006, when only one of the region’s 22 House races was won by a Republican. By 2018, the party was shut out entirely after Mr. Poliquin lost his re-election campaign to Mr. Golden. That left Senator Susan Collins of Maine as the sole remaining congressional Republican in New England.Now, Republican leaders are working to revive the party’s standing with an estranged but critical swath of voters in the region who prefer politicians who do not operate in lock step with the national parties.And Democrats, who have watched with alarm as the Republicans have gained traction, are scrambling to persuade voters that however mainstream these New Englanders may seem, electing them would empower an extremist G.O.P.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.A Pivotal Test in Pennsylvania: A battle for blue-collar white voters is raging in President Biden’s birthplace, where Democrats have the furthest to fall and the most to gain.Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.Biden’s Agenda at Risk: If Republicans capture one or both chambers of Congress, the president’s opportunities on several issues will shrink. Here are some major areas where the two sides would clash.Ohio Senate Race: Polls show Representative Tim Ryan competing within the margin of error against his G.O.P. opponent, J.D. Vance. Mr. Ryan said the race would be “the upset of the night,” but there is still a cold reality tilting against Democrats.In an interview, Seth Magaziner, a Democrat and former teacher and state treasurer who is running against Mr. Fung for an open seat in southern and central Rhode Island, cited his opponent’s support for former President Donald J. Trump and his opposition to a state marriage equality law as evidence that Mr. Fung is no centrist.“The Republicans are trying to package someone who is not a moderate as a moderate,” said Mr. Magaziner, who has trailed Mr. Fung in recent polls. “That has never been his record.”Top Republicans are spending freely to try to strengthen the New England Republicans’ chances.Seth Magaziner, a Democrat, is a former teacher and state treasurer who is running against Mr. Fung.Philip Keith for The New York TimesMr. Magaziner has trailed Mr. Fung in recent polls.Philip Keith for The New York TimesLast week, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Representative Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican and minority leader, poured an additional $1 million into Mr. Fung’s race, tripling its investment. Calvin Moore, a spokesman for the group, said the PAC had spent $3.5 million for Mr. Logan and $5.5 million for Mr. Poliquin.Mr. McCarthy visited Rhode Island in August to raise money for Mr. Fung, and Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the minority whip, attended a fund-raiser for Mr. Fung last week..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, the third-ranking Republican who denies that the 2020 election was fair, also appeared with Mr. Logan this month at a fund-raising event.One reason the region appeals to Republicans as they look to expand their footprint into even the bluest of states is the makeup of the electorate: Between a third and half of registered voters in New England do not have a party affiliation. They have long been known for rewarding politicians who reach across the political aisle, like Ms. Collins and Senator Angus King, a Maine independent, both of whom have been involved in bipartisan negotiations and supported Democratic-led bills.Republicans are hoping that disaffected Democrats and independent voters will turn to “Republican candidates who are running local races and delivering a more pragmatic message” as a check on Democratic dominance in their states, said Samantha Bullock, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.At a recent debate, Mr. Logan, who is challenging Representative Jahana Hayes, a second-term Democrat, described himself as a “Connecticut Republican”: moderate on social issues, fiscally conservative. He admonished the Biden administration for its economic policies, blaming Democrats’ large spending bills for rising inflation. But he appeared to share Ms. Hayes’s views on some issues, saying he supported infrastructure investments and abortion rights.Mr. Logan appeared to share the views of Representative Jahana Hayes, the Democratic incumbent, on some issues, saying he supported infrastructure investments and abortion rights.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesMr. Logan later clarified to reporters that he did not think Congress had the constitutional power to codify Roe v. Wade, as Democrats sought to do after the Supreme Court decision this year overturning it.In Rhode Island, Mr. Fung, the first Chinese American to be elected mayor of Cranston and a two-time candidate for governor, is campaigning on fighting inflation and increasing public safety. Mr. Fung said in an interview that he would have supported the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law that President Biden signed last year, as well as an industrial policy measure enacted over the summer, and that he would back legislation to protect abortion access.He denied that he had shifted his positions to appear more moderate, saying that Democrats were “running a lot of this national cookie-cutter playbook, and I just don’t fit their mold.”Mr. Poliquin may be the least centrist of the three, having aligned himself more closely with Mr. Trump and embraced conservative positions on social issues, such as opposition to gun control measures.National Democrats have invested huge sums to counter the G.O.P.’s inroads into New England, working to portray Mr. Fung and the other Republican candidates as far outside the mainstream. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and allied political action committees have spent more than $2.3 million in the Rhode Island race, $3.6 million in Ms. Hayes’s district and nearly $10 million in Mr. Golden’s, according to a spokesman for the Democratic committee.Democratic ads show a smiling Mr. Fung wearing a Trump beanie. Ads against Mr. Poliquin emphasize his support for abortion bans, including his previous backing for legislation that would prohibit abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy.And in Waterbury, Conn., the campaign staff for Ms. Hayes held signs at a rally before a televised debate that read “Logan [hearts] Trump.” After the debate, Ms. Hayes told reporters that a moderate would not have invited House leaders to campaign in the district or appeared on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News program to share his message, as Mr. Logan did this month.Ms. Hayes tried to paint Mr. Logan as a conservative, referring to his ties to congressional leadership and an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s show on Fox News.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesMr. Logan’s campaign headquarters. Republicans are hoping that disaffected Democrats and independent voters will turn to moderate Republicans.Hilary Swift for The New York Times“He has inextricably connected himself to national Republican leadership,” she said. “They are propping up his campaign with millions of dollars.”Not all voters are swayed by the connection.Dr. Earl Bueno, an anesthesiologist and independent voter from Connecticut, said he supported Mr. Logan, likening the Republican candidate to one of the state’s Democratic senators.“I don’t see him as an extremist that people are painting him as right now,” Dr. Bueno said. “I’m pro-George Logan because, like Senator Chris Murphy, you can actually reach out and have a conversation with him.”Some Democrats are resorting in the final weeks of the campaign to reminding voters that electing any Republican — even a moderate one — could hand the G.O.P. control of Congress.Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Democrat of Rhode Island, made that point at a recent dinner for Mr. Magaziner at a golf course in Providence.“Please,” he told a group of voters at the dinner, “don’t make Allan Fung the vote that makes Kevin McCarthy speaker of the House of Representatives.” More

Respondents said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate, but individual matchups showed a different story.John Fetterman, left, holds a lead in our poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race, although most of the survey was held before his debate with Dr. Mehmet Oz./EPA, via ShutterstockEight days before the election, we have our final* midterm surveys: polls of the four states likeliest to determine control of the Senate.New York Times/Siena College pollsPennsylvania: John Fetterman (D) 49, Mehmet Oz (R) 44.Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) 51, Blake Masters (R) 45.Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) 47, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 47.Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D) 49, Herschel Walker (R) 46.All considered, this is a pretty good set of numbers for Democrats. If they win three of the four Senate seats, they hold the Senate if everywhere else goes as expected. Here, they lead in the magic three of four while remaining highly competitive in the fourth — though it’s very important to caution that most of this poll was taken before the Pennsylvania Senate debate.There’s also a bit of good news for Republicans: Respondents said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate. Democrats led anyway, presumably because of their distaste for some of the Republican nominees or their affection for Democratic incumbents. As we head down the stretch, Republicans can hope to lure some of these voters to their side.How the polls compareIf you compare our polls with the polling averages, they look even better for Democrats. Consider the current FiveThirtyEight averages:In Pennsylvania, Mr. Fetterman leads in the FiveThirtyEight average by one point, compared with our six-point lead (after rounding).In Arizona, Mr. Kelly leads in the average by 3.6 points, compared with our six-point lead.In Georgia, Mr. Warnock leads by 1.2 points, compared with our three-point edge.In Nevada, Ms. Cortez Masto leads by 0.4 points, compared with our tied race.There is a twist: Although our polls may look better for Democrats than the average, they look about the same as the other traditional polls that used to be considered the gold standard in survey research, like ABC/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, NBC, the university survey houses, and so on.In many of these states, our surveys are the first such poll in weeks. Consider the last such polls in the four states, and how much better they look for Democrats than the average — and how similar they look to our survey:Arizona: CNN/SSRS showed Mr. Kelly +6 about a month ago, in a poll conducted from Sept. 26 to Oct. 2.Nevada: USA Today/Suffolk showed Ms. Cortez Masto +2 in a poll taken from Oct. 4 to Oct. 7.Georgia: Quinnipiac showed Mr. Warnock up seven, in a poll taken from Oct. 7 to Oct. 10.Pennsylvania: Franklin and Marshall showed Mr. Fetterman +4 in a poll conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 23. In a survey fielded over a partly overlapping period, CNN/SSRS showed Mr. Fetterman up six from Oct. 13 to 17.The absence of surveys from reputable pollsters is remarkable. The drought is partly because of rising costs — our October national survey was eight times as expensive as our final polls in 2016, on a per-interview basis. But it’s also because of a crisis of confidence among the traditional pollsters — Times/Siena included — who don’t have a great explanation for the poor results in 2020 and are understandably treading a little lightly.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.A Pivotal Test in Pennsylvania: A battle for blue-collar white voters is raging in President Biden’s birthplace, where Democrats have the furthest to fall and the most to gain.Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.Biden’s Agenda at Risk: If Republicans capture one or both chambers of Congress, the president’s opportunities on several issues will shrink. Here are some major areas where the two sides would clash.Ohio Senate Race: Polls show Representative Tim Ryan competing within the margin of error against his G.O.P. opponent, J.D. Vance. Mr. Ryan said the race would be “the upset of the night,” but there is still a cold reality tilting against Democrats.The flip side: Most of the polling over the last few weeks is coming from partisan outfits — usually Republican — or auto-dial firms. These polls are cheap enough to flood the zone, and many of them were emboldened by the 2020 election, when their final results came close to the election results even as other pollsters struggled.A couple of the nontraditional firms are worth taking seriously — CBS/YouGov in particular — but a lot of the polls that are filling up the averages just aren’t underpinned by credible survey methods.They may have come close to the results in 2020 — and could easily come close yet again 2022 — but it’s not because they have a representative sample of the population. Imagine, for instance, a poll that is subject to the same pro-Democratic bias as the higher-quality surveys, but simply doesn’t call cellphones and misses people under 35.In that case, the headline results could be “right,” but it’s not because the pollster has some special sauce or has uncovered the secret to reaching Trump voters.To be clear: The point isn’t that our polls are right and the others are wrong. There’s plenty of reason to think Trump-era challenges still plague the survey industry. If so, the pollsters once considered gold standard may struggle yet again. And if so, the dearth of gold standard polls and the surge of partisan polling might just leave the polling averages closer to the results than the last election, even if it’s just as tough for pollsters as it was two years.Right or wrong, there’s not much question that Democrats would hold a more comfortable lead in the Senate if the pollsters who dominated the averages in the past were a bigger part of the averages this year.Note: *We will have one last set of findings for you: the results of a multi-survey study of Wisconsin. This study began in September, so it won’t exactly count as a final poll. But hopefully it will shed some light on the challenges facing pollsters and maybe even offer a path forward. I started to dig into this data only yesterday — and progress has been slow — but my goal is to report a few preliminary findings before the election. More

President Jair Bolsonaro has not yet recognized his election defeat after months of warning, without evidence, that opponents would rig the vote.BRASÍLIA — Brazil on Monday woke up to a moment that it had long been bracing for.President Jair Bolsonaro narrowly lost the presidential election to his leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but 12 hours later, he had yet to say anything publicly.His silence was becoming increasingly worrying because Mr. Bolsonaro, a far-right leader often compared to former President Donald J. Trump, has been warning for months that he might not accept defeat, raising concerns about the stability of Latin America’s largest country and one of the world’s biggest democracies.Mr. Bolsonaro has consistently claimed, without evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting system is rife with fraud and that the left was planning to rig the vote. As a result, millions of his supporters have lost faith in the integrity of their nation’s elections, according to polls, and many said publicly that they were prepared to take to the streets at his command.But in the hours after Mr. Bolsonaro’s election loss, Brazil remained relatively calm, aside from the dancing in the streets among Mr. da Silva’s joyful supporters.As of 9 a.m. local time Monday (8 a.m. E.S.T.), 13 hours after the race was called, Mr. Bolsonaro and his three politician sons, who are prolific users of social media, had not commented publicly since election results were announced.Just after 10 p.m. Sunday night, the lights were already out at the presidential palace and Mr. Bolsonaro’s closest aides had left.Voters in Brazil ousted President Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right leader, after just one term and elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, to replace him.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesYet in the meantime, some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s top allies were accepting Mr. da Silva’s victory, albeit begrudgingly.“The dream of freedom of more than 51 million Brazilians lives on,” Carla Zambelli, a far-right congresswoman who has warned of rigged elections for years, posted on Twitter on Sunday night. “And I PROMISE you, I will be the toughest opposition Lula has ever imagined,” she added, referring to Mr. da Silva.Ms. Zambelli is one of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most prominent allies in Congress, with millions of followers on social media, as well as one of Brazil’s most combative politicians. A day before the election, she made headlines for pulling a gun on a supporter of Mr. da Silva in São Paulo in a scene captured on video. She was not charged.Many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters appeared less ready to throw in the towel.Misinformation about potential voter fraud spread rapidly in conservative corners of the Brazilian internet in the hours after the election, including unattributed videos that purported to show voting machines malfunctioning and speculation that patterns in the vote returns suggested something was amiss. Brazil’s election officials said there was no evidence of fraud on Sunday.On the streets of some of Brazil’s biggest cities on Sunday night, many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters also shouted that the election was stolen — and then said they were returning home, dejected, to wait for word from the president.“I don’t know if my vote was counted nor the votes of the people here,” said Marcelo Costa Andrade, 45, a government worker scrolling through his phone at what he hoped would be a victory party in Mr. Bolsonaro’s wealthy beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro. “I feel robbed.”Mr. Bolsonaro, center, arriving to vote in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday. For months he had been warning that the country’s voting machines could be rigged. Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesBut, despite his suspicion that the election might have been stolen, he was preparing to leave. “Now I’ll go home, talk to my family, lean on God and wait for Bolsonaro to say something,” he said.There were signs, however, that some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters were not going to wait for him to speak before publicly rejecting the results. In Mato Grosso, the heart of Brazil’s farming region, near the center of the country, truckers started fires and tried to block parts of a main highway that is a vital link for shipping agricultural goods in the hours after the results were announced, according to videos posted on social media and local news reports.Brazil’s truckers broadly support Mr. Bolsonaro and, a year ago, some had attempted to stop working and block roads in protest of the Brazilian Supreme Court’s efforts to counter some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s policies.And on Monday morning, thousands of supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro joined more than a dozen groups on the messaging app Telegram that called for “paralyzing” the country to show they would not accept Mr. da Silva’s victory.In a group focused on Rio de Janeiro, they circulated plans to create a blockade outside one of the nation’s largest oil refineries, just north of the city, on Monday morning. In another group centered on Brasília, the nation’s capital, people posted calls for a military intervention and massive protests in the afternoon.Adding to some officials’ concerns on Monday was that Mr. Bolsonaro lost in the narrowest presidential election in the 34 years of Brazil’s modern democracy. Mr. da Silva won by 2.1 million votes, or 1.8 percentage points, in an election where more than 118 million Brazilians voted.In his acceptance speech on Sunday night, Mr. da Silva recognized the country’s deep division and said he would seek to unite the nation. “I will govern for 215 million Brazilians, and not just for those who voted for me,” he said. “There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great nation.”Mr. da Silva is set to take office on Jan. 1.Flávia Milhorance and Leonardo Coelho contributed reporting from Rio de Janeiro and André Spigariol from Brasília. More

SÃO PAULO, Brasil — Quatro anos de loucura chegaram praticamente ao fim. Em um segundo turno tenso, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva prevaleceu sobre o presidente Jair Bolsonaro, com 50,9 por cento dos votos. Exceto por uma reviravolta dramática — o temível golpe que há meses paira sobre o país, por exemplo — Lula se tornará, em 1 de janeiro, o presidente do Brasil.Não foi fácil. O último mês foi um resumo da era Bolsonaro. Houve uma quantia desenfreada de desinformação. (A campanha de Lula teve até de confirmar, em resposta a boatos insanos que circularam nas mídias sociais, que o candidato “não tem pacto nem jamais conversou com o diabo.”) Houve ampla discussão sobre canibalismo, maçonaria e o sistema político supostamente preferível da Idade Média. E, é claro, houve a ameaça de violência política, aparentemente encorajada pelo topo.Finalmente, para o bem da nossa saúde mental coletiva, podemos dizer que Bolsonaro foi derrotado. Não é que o Brasil esteja fortemente alinhado com Lula e a política de centro-esquerda do Partido dos Trabalhadores, que governou o país por 13 anos, terminando em 2016. É mais que os últimos quatro anos de gestão Bolsonaro nos mostraram o quão baixo uma nação pode ir, e estamos desesperados para emergir desse pântano de desalento político.Há muita coisa dessa gestão que não vai deixar saudades — a negligência assassina, a corrupção arraigada, o fanatismo. Um dos maiores alívios será não precisar mais participar de discussões loucas. O Brasil, enfim, pode voltar a ter uma aparência de sanidade.É difícil acreditar no quanto o debate público mudou. Nove anos atrás, os brasileiros foram às ruas para pedir a gratuidade no transporte público. Quão longe estamos desse tipo de mentalidade cívica hoje? Agora passamos boa parte do tempo garantindo (de uma forma cada vez mais exasperada) que a virologia de fato existe e a mudança climática não é uma farsa globalista.Temos medo de ir às ruas protestar e dar ao governo um motivo para tentar um golpe. Achamos que qualquer cidadão passando em um automóvel pode estar armado. Sabemos que usar vermelho será visto como uma declaração política. (Recentemente um cardeal católico brasileiro foi levado a prestar contas sobre suas vestimentas tradicionais, o que mostra que nem mesmo o clero está acima de qualquer suspeição.) Não ousamos discutir as notícias com os vizinhos, por medo do que eles poderão dizer. Os elevadores nunca estiveram tão silenciosos.A verdade é que a sociedade brasileira sempre foi dominada por forças conservadoras. Nenhum dos avanços das últimas duas décadas veio com facilidade — o programa de assistência social Bolsa Família, as cotas nas universidades e no setor público, ou o casamento entre pessoas do mesmo sexo. Todos foram recebidos com escárnio, se não com total indignação, pela maior parte dos conservadores. Mas foram batalhas travadas entre a centro-esquerda e a centro-direita, que então eram suficientemente razoáveis para se empenhar em um debate democrático. Isso mudou quando Bolsonaro entrou na cena política nacional. Primeiro aos poucos, e então de modo súbito, uma barragem de extremismo de direita reprimido se rompeu.Dia após dia, a integridade do debate público se liquefez em alegações conspiratórias, impulsionadas pelas mídias sociais e encorajadas por Bolsonaro. Fomos obrigados a gastar nosso tempo combatendo publicamente a teoria de que vacinas contêm nanobots ou que, como o presidente declarou, a floresta amazônica “não pega fogo.” Toda essa energia, que podia ser gasta exigindo a melhoria do sistema público de saúde ou uma resposta mais enérgica à mudança climática, foi, em vez disso, dissipada no combate a tolices obscuras.Mas Bolsonaro não nos deu outra chance, inclusive até o momento das eleições. Não há dúvida de que ele tinha como meta a autocracia e iria aproveitar qualquer oportunidade de se manter no poder; a necessidade de derrotá-lo se tornou uma prioridade absoluta, tomando precedência sobre qualquer outra preocupação. Isso explica a amplitude da coalizão em torno da candidatura de Lula, que incluiu até antigos oponentes da centro-direita. A batalha eleitoral foi reduzida a um binarismo: contra ou a favor de Bolsonaro.Na realidade, não é assim tão simples. De um lado, não há solução tangível para o quanto as redes sociais parecem empurrar os cidadãos a posições extremas, aprofundando a polarização. De outro, os políticos endossados por Bolsonaro agora são parte estabelecida do cenário político. O povo elegeu mais de uma dúzia de governadores que apoiam Bolsonaro, das 27 unidades da federação, e seu partido obteve maioria no Senado após ganhar oito dos 27 assentos à disposição. (Muitos dos novos senadores, que ficarão no poder pelos próximos oito anos, são ex-ministros da gestão Bolsonaro.) A extrema direita também aumentou sua influência no Congresso: o partido do presidente ganhou 99 assentos na Câmara, formada por 513 deputados. Jair Bolsonaro pode até deixar o cargo, mas o bolsonarismo está longe de acabar.Isso representa sérios desafios à próxima gestão. Não só porque uma extrema direita encorajada será um obstáculo constante para o lado de Lula, mas também porque irá forçá-lo a recorrer aos partidos do Centrão, abrindo caminho para a troca de favores — muitas vezes corrupta — que desfigurou a democracia brasileira desde sua concepção. Ainda assim, a oportunidade para uma nova trajetória política nacional não pode ser menosprezada. Após ocupar a Presidência do país, a extrema direita pode ser empurrada de volta às margens da política. No mínimo teremos um governo mais preocupado com o aumento da desigualdade e da fome, em vez do número de seguidores em suas motociatas de apoio. Só isso já é um alívio.De modo crucial, os brasileiros poderão voltar a discutir assuntos mais urgentes do país, como o déficit de moradia, a educação pública, a polícia militar e o racismo. Talvez também possamos falar de coisas que nos interessam e nos surpreendem, que nos dão satisfação. (Tartarugas e astronomia, alguém?) Depois de tudo o que passamos, merecemos algum respiro dessa loucura.Vanessa Barbara é a editora do sítio literário A Hortaliça, autora de dois romances e dois livros de não-ficção em português, e escritora de opinião do The New York Times. More