Elections

Gail Collins: Bret, as you know, I always try to avoid discussing foreign affairs — never been my specialty — but I do want to ask you about the British, um, situation.Bret Stephens: You mean the country that seems to have switched places with Silvio Berlusconi’s Italy, politically speaking, and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s Argentina, economically speaking, and Groucho Marx’s Freedonia, comically speaking? Go on.Gail: The Tory prime minister, Liz Truss, set a record for failure before she slunk out of office last week. She came into 10 Downing Street promising to cut taxes on the rich, and she did, and she … nose-dived.Any message there for the rest of us?Bret: When Margaret Thatcher was pressed on whether she would switch course on her free-market policies, she famously said, “The lady’s not for turning.” She went on to be one of the longest-serving prime ministers in British history. Truss turned against her own policies almost immediately and wound up being turned out of office almost immediately.So the first lesson is that if you announce a policy, have the guts to stick to it or face political destruction.Gail: Well, in this case I think we’d have seen political destruction either way. The tax cut idea was disastrous.Bret: I’d say it was the execution, not the idea: Tax cuts usually stimulate a sluggish economy. The second lesson is that Britain’s economic mess isn’t the result of a month and a half of Truss but 12 years of big-government Toryism under David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson. Britain just isn’t an attractive country to live or invest in anymore, particularly after it made the foolish decision to leave the European Union.Bottom line: Have the courage of your convictions and the wit to defend them. Your take?Gail: That cutting taxes on the rich isn’t the magic answer to economic problems. I believe in a lot of what you’d call big government, but sooner or later, you’ve gotta pay for stuff.Bret: Gail Collins, fiscal conservative …Gail: Speaking of debt, President Biden’s plan to start his program of canceling student loans to poor and middle-class borrowers is facing a slew of Republican court challenges.I’m rooting for him to win the fight — a matter on which I believe we disagree.Bret: Totally against loan forgiveness. We’ve increased the national debt from $20 trillion to $31 trillion in barely five years and now higher interest rates are going to make it more expensive to service that debt. And we are supposed to write off $400 billion in college loans — including to couples making up to $250,000 — without even giving Congress an opportunity to weigh in? It’s bad policy and worse politics.Gail: Let me quickly point out that many of the folks who are spending their lives paying off big student loans signed up for the deal when they were little more than kids, some not ready for the programs they were recruited into, and some who were assured that their major in medieval history would lead to high-income jobs that would make it easy to pay off the debt. The system did not work.Bret: I probably shouldn’t say this, but anyone who thought, at any age, that a degree in medieval history would lead to a life of riches needs stupidity forgiveness, not loan forgiveness.I guess we’ll find out soon enough if the courts even allow the plan to go through, though I did find it interesting that Amy Coney Barrett effectively sided with the administration on this issue. Nice to see a Trump nominee show some independence.Gail: Agreed. Meanwhile, I’ve been wanting to ask you about the Senate races. The whole world is watching! Or at least the politically obsessed part of America. Anything grabbing your interest?Bret: The most interesting Senate race is in Ohio. I really don’t see Tim Ryan beating J.D. Vance, but the fact that he’s even competitive in a state Trump won in 2020 by eight points suggests he’s found a formula for how Democrats win back white, working-class votes from the Republicans. Mainly that means running as far away as possible from Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and the progressive wing of his party.How about you?Gail: Since Cincinnati is my hometown, I’ve been watching Ohio pretty intently. I think Ryan has a chance — he’s in a pretty red state, but one that’s elected Democrats before. Including the state’s other senator, Sherrod Brown, who’s considered liberal.Bret: True. And just by outperforming expectations Ryan is forcing Republicans to pour a ton of money in the race just to hold the seat.Gail: Plus Ryan is running against a truly terrible candidate. Vance seems to have an unending supply of mini-scandals about his financial dealings.Bret: I thought Vance did fine in the debate last week. What bothers me about him aren’t his financial dealings. It’s the crass opportunism it took for him to flip almost overnight from Never Trumper to MAGA Republican. And the fact that he represents the isolationist wing of the conservative movement. Hard to overstate how dangerous that is in the face of the new axis of evil in Moscow, Tehran and Beijing.Gail: Also interested in New Hampshire, where the Democratic incumbent, Maggie Hassan, seemed doomed in a Republican-leaning year, given that she won her last election by only about 1,000 votes.But her opponent, the retired general Don Bolduc, has been another awful candidate — all over the map, trying to be a right-wing stalwart in the primaries and now metamorphosing into a moderate who wants to raise Social Security taxes on the wealthy.Who would you vote for there?Bret: Hassan, no question. She’s a good senator, willing to work across the aisle. I would have supported the Republican governor, Chris Sununu, if he’d decided to run, but apparently the sanity gene runs too strongly in his family so he stayed out of the race. And Bolduc isn’t just an election denier or even an election-denier denier — in that he retracted his denialism after he won the primary. It’s that he subsequently denied that he denied being a denier. Which means he should be denied the election.Gail: Bret, either you are the most fair-minded commentator in the country or this is yet another marker for how far the Republican Party has sunk. Even its defenders can’t defend many of this year’s candidates.I’m inclined to say both are true, by the way.Bret: Thanks! Can we switch to some of the races for governor? In New York the Republican candidate, Lee Zeldin, seems to be zooming up in the polls.Gail: Aauugh. If this was a New York Republican like your old fave George Pataki, I’d be unshocked — Gov. Kathy Hochul hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. But Zeldin is terrible! If you want to get a really good feel for this contest, read our editorial board’s very powerful Hochul endorsement.Bret: Zeldin is doing well because New Yorkers are doing badly. We have the highest overall tax burden in the country if you count income, property, sales and excise taxes, but we are very far from having the best school districts, the best infrastructure or the safest streets. The only area in which we lead the country is in losing people to other states. And one-party rule is bad for governance. There are things I don’t like about Zeldin, starting with his proximity to Donald Trump, but I’ll vote for him next month.Gail: Looking elsewhere — how about Arizona? The race pits Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state, against Kari Lake, a Republican TV personality. I certainly think Hobbs would make the better governor. But if Lake wins I could see her turning into a possible vice-presidential candidate on a Trump ticket.Bret: Our news-side colleague Jack Healy wrote a devastating report about Hobbs, whose personal strengths apparently don’t include campaigning. She refuses to debate her opponent on the grounds that Lake is an election denier, which seems to me like an especially good reason to debate. My bet is that the governorship stays in Republican hands — and that it might push Blake Masters to victory in his Senate race against the incumbent Democrat, Mark Kelly.Gail: It was a great piece, which did note that Lake refuses to answer any questions from the state’s major newspaper.Bret: Bigger picture, Gail, I suspect it’s going to be a pretty good November for Republicans, despite all of the lousy candidates they’ve put forward. Do you see this as just part of a natural cycle in which the incumbent party usually does badly in midterms? Or would you put some blame on the way Biden has handled the presidency so far?Gail: In a world full of war, energy shortages, health crises and political polarization, our president is doing a decent job of keeping things calm. Wish he had a more electric personality, but we’ve certainly learned there are worse things than a chief executive who isn’t great on camera.It is true that the incumbent party usually does poorly during the midterms. Fortunately, the Republicans under Trump have nominated so many terrible candidates that there’s a chance the results won’t be quite as dire for Biden’s side.What do you think? And more important, which side are you rooting for?Bret: I’m rooting for Biden to succeed because we can’t allow Trump to come back, Vladimir Putin to win or the country to come even more unglued and unhinged than it already is.Of course my way of rooting for success is to scold Biden nonstop whenever I think he’s screwing up. It’s a formula my mom has been using with me for nearly 49 years. She’s confident that in a few years more, she might even succeed.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

Ted Cruz took refuge in supply closet during January 6 riot, book revealsTexas senator wrote he ‘vehemently disagreed’ with colleagues’ call to allow certification of 2020 election As a mob of Donald Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol during the January 6 attack in a desperate attempt to keep him in the Oval Office, Ted Cruz hid in a closet next to a stack of chairs, but he never thought twice about continuing to sow doubt about the former president’s electoral defeat, the Republican senator from Texas has revealed.Cruz revealed his whereabouts on the day of the deadly Capitol attack – which unsuccessfully aimed to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in the 2020 presidential election – in a new book. The news was first reported by Newsweek.The book – titled Justice Corrupted – recounts how Cruz was listening to his colleague James Lankford of Oklahoma speak in the Senate chamber when a terrible commotion erupted outside. Capitol police rushed in to escort Trump’s vice-president, Mike Pence, whom the mob wanted to hang, off the dais, and the session was paused.“In the fog of the confusion, it was difficult to tell exactly what was happening,” Cruz wrote. “We were informed that a riot had broken out and that rioters were attempting to breach the building.“At first, Capitol Police instructed us to remain on the Senate floor. And so we did. Then, a few minutes later, they instructed us to evacuate rapidly.”Cruz said he was met with hot tempers after he and his fellow senators were led to a secure location, with some blaming him and his allies in the chamber “explicitly for the violence that was occurring”. After all, Cruz was among those who had helped spread the ousted Republican president’s lies that the election had been stolen from him, fueling the mob that now was invading the Capitol.“While we waited for the Capitol to be secured, I assembled our coalition in a back room (really, a supply closet with stacked chairs) to discuss what we should do next,” Cruz continued, according to Newsweek.Cruz said several of those in his coalition wanted to suspend their objections to the certification, but he “vehemently disagreed”.“I understood the sentiment,” Cruz added. “But … I urged my colleagues that the course of action we were advocating was the right and principled one.”Cruz later was one of just six Republican senators who voted against certifying Trump’s electoral college defeat in Arizona. He was one of seven GOP senators who voted against certifying Trump’s electoral college loss in Pennsylvania.Such stances have helped make Cruz unpalatable in some quarters. He attended a baseball playoff game Sunday between his home state’s Houston Astros and the New York Yankees in the Bronx.One cellphone video showed New York fans roundly booing Cruz, flipping him off and cursing him out, including one who called him a “loser,” before the Astros won and eliminated the Yankees.Officials have since linked nine deaths, including suicides among traumatized law enforcement officers, to the Capitol attack. More than 900 rioters have been charged in connection with the attack, some with seditious conspiracy.In a series of televised hearings this year, a bipartisan US House committee has publicly aired evidence seeking to establish that Trump had a direct role in the Capitol attack. That committee recently issued a subpoena to the former president ordering him to testify before the panel as well as produce documents.Cruz’s term doesn’t end until 2025, meaning his office is not at risk during the 8 November midterm elections in which Biden’s fellow Democrats are trying to preserve thin numerical advantages in both congressional chambers.TopicsTed CruzUS Capitol attackUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

Investors appeared heartened by the prospect of Rishi Sunak, Britain’s former chancellor, becoming prime minister — but he must still solve huge economic problems.The front-runner.Isabel Infantes/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMeet Britain’s (likely) new leader After weeks of turmoil, British politics appears headed for some stability, as Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, is poised to succeed the ill-fated Liz Truss as prime minister. The British pound and government bonds rose a bit on the news — but the economic problems that trouble the country aren’t likely to be cured quickly.Sunak has the numbers, with over 164 Conservative Party lawmakers backing him for prime minister as of Monday. (Conservative Party rules require candidates to have at least 100 pledged supporters to be considered.) The only remaining challenger, Penny Mordaunt, trails with roughly 90 pledged supporters, she says. But the clock is ticking. She has until 2 p.m. London time on Monday to reach the needed support threshold.Sunak’s most potent challenger was Boris Johnson, the former prime minister who was ousted after his own cabinet ministers — including Sunak, then chancellor — quit in protest over a series of scandals. Johnson pulled out of the race on Sunday, despite claiming to have the support of 102 lawmakers (with the BBC estimating he had just 57 public backers).Investors expect relative predictability from a Sunak government. During the race for prime minister this summer, Sunak defended his plans for higher taxes as fiscally responsible, compared with Truss’s promises of tax cuts to spur economic growth. The markets’ virulent reaction to Truss’s plans, which led to sweeping efforts by the Bank of England to prop up the government bonds known as gilts, suggest investors favor a less revolutionary approach, like what Sunak has promised.Investors appear particularly relieved that Johnson — a notably divisive figure in Britain and abroad, who still faces a parliamentary inquiry into whether he lied to lawmakers about breaking Covid lockdown rules — is out of the running.But Britain still faces enormous challenges. The Bank of England remains likely to raise interest rates to tamp down inflation that has reached 10 percent; Britain is still facing a huge cost-of-living crisis, owing largely to soaring energy costs; and homeowners face significantly higher mortgage payments. On Friday, Moody’s downgraded Britain’s credit rating outlook to “negative” from “stable,” citing weak growth and “unpredictability” in policymaking.Sunak must also corral a Conservative Party that has splintered into several warring factions. Hard-right lawmakers favor cracking down on immigration and taking a hard line against the E.U. over the checking of goods crossing the trade border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. He may also face rebellion from Johnson loyalists who blame him for the downfall of the former prime minister.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Tesla cuts prices for key models in China. The electric carmaker has reduced the baseline prices for the Model 3 and the Model Y by as much as 9 percent, Reuters reports. The move appears to be tied to slowing demand in China, the world’s biggest E.V. market, and growing competition from domestic rivals.The Trump family business goes on trial on Monday. The Manhattan district attorney’s office has accused the Trump Organization of tax fraud and other crimes, focusing on undeclared perks for executives. Among the star witnesses of the trial will be Allen Weisselberg, the company’s former C.F.O.Japan struggles to prop up the yen. The currency continued to slide against the dollar on Monday, despite what investors suspect was another intervention by the Bank of England to curb volatility. Japan is in a difficult bind because it is trying to maintain ultralow interest rates, which could bolster the yen, to spur economic growth.Chip makers struggle with tighter U.S. restrictions on China. YMTC of China has reportedly asked American employees in key roles to leave, to comply with new rules from Washington that require U.S. citizens to get permission to work at Chinese fabrication plants. And TSMC of Taiwan is said to have stopped work for a burgeoning Chinese semiconductor start-up.Brace for a potential “tripledemic” this year. With pandemic lockdowns mostly in the past, experts predict a resurgence in Covid cases this winter — along with more traditional outbreaks of flu and, perhaps, of respiratory syncytial virus. “It’s going to be a rough winter,” one infectious disease specialist told The Times.An “even more dominant” Xi China released third-quarter economic data on Monday, laying bare the deep challenges facing the country days after Xi Jinping was appointed to an unprecedented third term as leader.Gross domestic product in the world’s second-biggest economy grew 3.9 percent compared to the same period last year. That is higher than expected, but short of the full-year target of 5.5 percent — China’s lowest annual target in three decades. The authorities unexpectedly delayed publication of the data last week.Financial markets tumbled. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed down more than 6 percent at a 14-year low on Monday, reflecting anxieties about the worsening economy, and after Xi stacked Communist Party leadership positions with loyalists. Chinese tech stocks listed in the U.S. are the worst performers there premarket, led by the e-commerce companies Pinduoduo and JD.com. Xi’s move to tighten control was widely expected, but it underscores his ambition to accelerate China’s rise as a military and technological superpower, despite the potential economic damage, write The Times reports. That could have big implications for business.“He was dominant already and is even more dominant now,” Dali Yang, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said of Xi. A newly energized Beijing is likely to remain defiant in the face of international criticism of its hard-line behavior. It still wants to become the pre-eminent military force in the region and to assert its claim over Taiwan. At the congress, Xi said China would promote its own initiatives to solve global development and security problems.Unchecked power could slow economic growth. Xi’s exceptionally stringent approach of imposing mass lockdowns and quarantines to eradicate Covid-19 outbreaks has throttled consumer spending and hit supply chains. The hugely important property market is also in a slump after he sought to curb speculation in the sector.The geopolitical divide between the U.S. and China is widening. President Biden has waged a crackdown on China’s access to U.S. technology — in particular, chips and chip production — and the threat of Russia-like economic sanctions looms. Some of the Western world’s biggest corporations are now evaluating how to reduce the business they do in China. Goldman Sachs, though, hasn’t closed the door. On Monday, it announced a joint venture in China to boost investment in local infrastructure-related real estate assets.Critics come after S.B.F. for his stance on crypto rules Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the crypto exchange FTX, got skewered by his crypto colleagues after proposing voluntary digital asset standards to better protect consumers last week — and he’s still reeling from the experience. “Whelp, that was an interesting few days,” the billionaire wrote on Twitter on Sunday, responding to complainants denouncing him as “S.B.F. — The Regulator.”Industry insiders are growing wary of S.B.F. The head of a sprawling global empire mostly built beyond the reach of U.S. regulators, the 30-year-old billionaire has donated about $40 million to various PACs and candidates in the 2022 election cycle and become a fixture on Capitol Hill. Some advocates for decentralized finance have grown increasingly concerned about Bankman-Fried’s high-profile support for a newish Senate Agriculture Committee bill on digital assets, which they feel could set back the DeFi movement. Bankman-Fried also got into hot water for suggesting that DeFi adopt “know your customer” mandates to appease authorities. Opponents say this would undermine the decentralized crypto ethos, and would force DeFi firms to adopt rules associated with traditional finance. Some users and influential industry voices, meanwhile, have called for a boycott of FTX.The crypto exec relented after the onslaught. S.B.F. thanked his critics for their input, which he used to revise some of his proposals. Among the most prominent was Erik Vorhees, the libertarian-leaning founder of the platform ShapeShift, who argued that DeFi should remain distanced from regulatory oversight, as it “transcends humans and their political machinations.”“The devil is in the details,” Kristin Smith, the executive director of the Blockchain Association, an industry trade group representing about 100 companies, told DealBook. The industry agrees that centralized exchanges are ready for regulation, she said, but DeFi is new and nuanced and regulating this area would require more time. Translation: S.B.F. should stop speaking for DeFi.Bankman-Fried thinks congressional action is coming. “It’s important to protect customers and to get federal oversight,” he wrote in an email to DealBook, adding that it’s equally important that code remain free. There’s still “some chance” that a narrow crypto bill that leaves DeFi untouched gets congressional approval after the November election, he predicted. “I think that, if it’s well-drafted (which I’m optimistic it will be!), it would make sense to pass it this year.”“This is a moment of truth for education. How we respond to this will determine not only our recovery, but our nation’s standing in the world.” — Miguel Cardona, the secretary of education, warning that a pandemic-fueled drop in the math and reading scores of U.S. students has deeper economic and societal implications.The week ahead What’s on the agenda this week? It will be a busy one for earnings — big banks in Europe, plus Big Tech in the U.S. We also have interest-rate-setting decisions and economic data releases.Tuesday: The Saudi Arabia-sponsored “Davos in the Desert” begins. Despite tensions between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over oil, many U.S. executives still plan to attend.Wednesday: Meta reports earnings. An advertising slump and new privacy rules from Apple (which reports on Thursday) are expected to have eaten further into its revenue, which in the second quarter dropped for the first time since the company went public.Thursday: Credit Suisse presents a plan to fix itself. A broad strategic review is set to conclude with a restructuring that will likely involve thousands of layoffs and an overhaul of its investment bank. Elsewhere: The U.S. reports third-quarter G.D.P., and it’s rates decision day for the European Central Bank.Friday: deadline day for Elon Musk and his $44 billion Twitter deal. Last week, the Washington Post reported that he planned to cut Twitter’s staff by as much as 75 percent after taking the company private. In Asia, the Bank of Japan wraps up a two-day rate-setting meeting where no change in policy is expected.THE SPEED READ DealsMagic Johnson is reportedly in talks to buy a minority stake in the Las Vegas Raiders N.F.L. team. (Semafor)The banks tasked with financing Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter are expected to keep the $13 billion worth of debt on their books and try to sell it later, rather than immediately booking a $500 million loss. (WSJ)Amazon will take a stake in the parent of Hawaiian Airlines as part of a cargo-hauling deal. (Bloomberg)PolicyThe Republican National Committee sued Google, accusing it of directing the party’s political emails to users’ spam folders. (Axios)The White House is hoping that plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will spur new domestic oil production, but energy companies are skeptical. (WSJ)Best of the restIsraelis and their adopted feral dogs — what could go wrong? (WSJ)“Rebranding is hard but there is no excuse for disemvowelling.” (FT)The British economy is reeling, but the country’s whisky makers are having a banner year. (NYT)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected]. More

Asthaa Chaturvedi and Mike Benoist and Dan Powell, Marion Lozano and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | StitcherThis episode contains strong language. Hundreds of candidates on the ballot in November still deny that President Biden won in 2020 — a level of denialism that is fueling harassment and threats toward election workers. Few have experienced those attacks as viscerally as election workers in Arizona. Today, we speak with the top election official in the state’s largest county. On today’s episodeStephen Richer, the recorder of Maricopa County in Arizona. Stephen Richer is the top election official in Maricopa Country, Ariz. Many of the voters in the state doubt the legitimacy of the electoral process.Michael Chow/The Arizona Republic, via Associated PressBackground readingElection officials are on alert as voting begins for midterm elections, the biggest test of the American election system since former President Donald J. Trump’s lies about the 2020 results launched an assault on the democratic process.Over 370 Republican candidates have cast doubt on the 2020 election despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, according to a New York Times investigation.There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.The Daily is made by Lisa Tobin, Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Dave Shaw, Sydney Harper, Robert Jimison, Mike Benoist, Liz O. Baylen, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Rachelle Bonja, Diana Nguyen, Marion Lozano, Corey Schreppel, Anita Badejo, Rob Szypko, Elisheba Ittoop, Chelsea Daniel, Mooj Zadie, Patricia Willens, Rowan Niemisto, Jody Becker, Rikki Novetsky, John Ketchum, Nina Feldman, Will Reid, Carlos Prieto, Sofia Milan, Ben Calhoun and Susan Lee.Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Paula Szuchman, Lisa Tobin, Larissa Anderson, Cliff Levy, Lauren Jackson, Julia Simon, Mahima Chablani, Desiree Ibekwe, Wendy Dorr, Elizabeth Davis-Moorer, Jeffrey Miranda, Renan Borelli, Maddy Masiello and Nell Gallogly. More

As headlines shift in the weeks before the midterms, so do voters’ top concerns.Two weeks before November’s midterm elections, many voter surveys suggest Republicans are gaining momentum toward retaking one or both chambers of Congress.Every major Senate race, except for Georgia’s, has been trending toward Republicans. There are even warning signs for Democrats in House districts in Oregon and Rhode Island where Republicans are rarely competitive. And now, more voters say they intend to vote for Republicans instead of Democrats for Congress in their districts.In such a polarized country, understanding how one party can gain an advantage so quickly can sometimes be hard. In this case, the explanation is straightforward: It’s about the issues on the minds of voters.Over the summer, the dominant headlines and resulting public debate were focused on issues that helped Democrats, like abortion, gun violence and threats to democracy. These issues helped Democrats stay highly competitive, despite President Biden’s low approval ratings and a tendency for the sitting president’s party to get drubbed in midterm elections.But the spotlight on those matters is fading. Voters are less frequently citing them as top concerns while expressing worries about the economy, crime and immigration — issues that tend to favor Republicans. In a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week, the share of voters citing the economy, inflation, crime or immigration as the “most important problem” facing the country increased to 52 percent, up 14 points from a July version of the poll. The share citing the Democratic-friendly issues of abortion, democracy or guns dropped to 14 percent from 26 percent.Attitudes in fluxLooking back, it’s easy to see why the mood of the nation’s electorate has shifted.Our July poll was taken just a couple weeks after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Abortion was in the headlines nearly every day, as the nation grappled with the fallout and state bans went into effect. But relevant news developments have slowed, and that affects the public’s attention. Google searches for “abortion” are now at about the level they were in early spring, before the ruling hit the headlines.In last week’s Times/Siena poll, just 5 percent of voters said that abortion was the most important problem facing the country.Other issues playing to Democrats’ strengths had similar trajectories. The House committee investigating the Capitol attack held eight public hearings in June and July, but only one after Labor Day (and it was on Oct. 13, after we conducted our most recent poll). Firearms restrictions are another core issue for Democrats that they often highlight in response to gun violence. The Times cataloged at least nine mass shootings in the two months before our July poll, including the horrific massacres at a grocery store in Buffalo and at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. The spate of such mass shootings has, fortunately, faded as well.Now on voters’ mindsEconomic concerns are resurgent. The summer’s falling gas prices and somewhat optimistic inflation news have given way to renewed concerns about the rising cost of living and drops in the stock market.Crime and immigration are in a somewhat different category. These are longstanding problems, but they don’t usually dominate the front pages alongside major news stories, save for mass shootings. Republicans have nonetheless elevated them as campaign issues, including with high-profile gambits like the decision by Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis to fly migrants to the liberal bastion of Martha’s Vineyard.The swing votersIf you’re an ideologically consistent voter who agrees with your party on almost every issue, it can be hard to believe that other voters can be so fickle. But millions of Americans — perhaps even most of them — hold conflicting views. They can be drawn to different candidates or parties, depending on what they consider most important in a particular election.Take abortion: If you believe the polls that 60 percent of Americans think it should be mostly legal, then a huge share of the voters who back Republicans in any given election must support legal abortion. These voters presumably back Republicans for another reason, whether it’s the economy and taxes or an issue like immigration. But if abortion is at the top of their minds, perhaps a sliver of them will defect.In polling over the summer, some did. But in the more recent surveys, many of them came back to the Republican fold.More midterms newsA shrinking white majority is a shared feature of the congressional districts held by Republicans who rejected Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat.The Republican candidate for New York governor, Lee Zeldin, agreed to a single debate set for tomorrow against Gov. Kathy Hochul.To win Ohio’s Senate race, Representative Tim Ryan is running as a Democrat who doesn’t have much in common with his party.THE LATEST NEWSBritainBoris Johnson led Britain until early last month.Toby Melville/ReutersBoris Johnson pulled out of the race to become Britain’s prime minister, making his former finance minister, Rishi Sunak, the favorite.Sunak’s financial agenda made him unpopular with his Conservative Party. But after weeks of economic chaos, it could be the reason he gets the job.Britain’s new prime minister could be announced as early as today. Follow our updates here.InternationalXi Jinping, China’s leader, appointed loyalists to top government jobs, giving him nearly absolute power.The authorities in Brazil, which holds a presidential runoff on Sunday, have granted its elections chief the power to remove online misinformation.The Ukrainian military is rapidly learning how to shoot down the kind of drones that Russia has begun deploying in recent weeks.Other Big StoriesU.S. students recorded deep declines in math and a dip in reading on a national exam, the clearest picture yet of the pandemic’s impact on education.A Vermont town’s water superintendent resigned after admitting that he had been lowering fluoride levels for more than a decade.A solar eclipse will be visible tomorrow across Europe and Asia.OpinionsGail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss British politics and the Republicans’ midterm advantage.Terms like “queer” and “L.G.B.T.Q.” are intended to be inclusive. But not everyone they’re meant to include feels that way, says Pamela Paul.The U.S. should make pandemic preparedness a more permanent priority, like national defense, Dr. Craig Spencer says.Retaliating against Saudi Arabia for cutting oil production would only hurt American consumers, Ellen Wald argues.MORNING READSMichelle Groskopf for The New York TimesDecades of addiction: In a new memoir, the “Friends” actor Matthew Perry estimated he has spent $9 million trying to get sober.Well: Sex therapy is misunderstood. Here’s what it actually entails.Quiz time: Take our latest news quiz and share your score (the average was 8.6).Metropolitan diary: A helpful man welcomes a stranger to the neighborhood.A Times classic: What really killed President William Henry Harrison?Advice from Wirecutter: These inexpensive screen protectors will keep your iPhone safe.Lives Lived: All four of Louis Gigante’s brothers were mobsters. He chose a different path as a priest and a developer who helped revive the South Bronx. Gigante died at 90.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICThe World Series is set: Both the Astros and Phillies clinched spots yesterday, setting up a battle between juggernaut Houston and upstart Philadelphia. The Phillies star Bryce Harper is building his legacy in this season’s playoffs, The Times’s Tyler Kepner writes.Back on the field: The Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led Miami to a 16-10 win over the Steelers last night in his first game back since a scary concussion three weeks ago. Brady and Rodgers in disarray: Two of the N.F.L.’s best quarterbacks — Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers — find themselves mired in 3-4 starts early in the season. For Green Bay, it’s a disaster. For Tampa Bay, it leaves a recent Super Bowl champion wondering whether it can even make the playoffs.ARTS AND IDEAS EJ Hill under his roller coaster.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesThe art of the rideMost people look at roller coasters and see fun, or fear. EJ Hill sees art. The rides have inspired his artwork — photography, painting, sculpture and performances — for years. His latest exhibit, “Brake Run Helix,” will feature a working roller coaster that runs through the inside of the Massachusetts Museum of Contemporary Art, in the Berkshires. It opens Sunday.Hill, who is Black and queer, hopes the ride will help visitors connect with the “bodily threat” that he feels anytime he leaves his home. “There are things that I believe you have to feel to understand,” Hill said. “Certain ideas can be communicated via language and land really well; other things you have to feel in your gut.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChris Simpson for The New York TimesBrunswick stew, a hearty fall dish from the South, combines tomatoes, corn, beans and shredded chicken.TheaterA new show from Jill Sobule, best known for her 1995 hit song “I Kissed a Girl,” is part autobiography, part rock concert.TravelA guide to the beaches, bars and bookshops of Santa Cruz, Calif.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was painful. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tall and thin (5 letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.P.S. Vox named Zeynep Tufekci, a Times Opinion columnist, to its inaugural list of 50 people working to make the future better.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about election denial. “Popcast” remembers Loretta Lynn.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at [email protected] up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

President Jair Bolsonaro and conservative lawmakers in Brazil are trying to make it illegal to publish polls that later do not match the election results.BRASÍLIA — In the first round of Brazil’s closely watched elections this month, the polls were off the mark. They significantly underestimated the support for the far-right incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro, and other conservative candidates across the country.Many on the right were furious, criticizing the pollsters as out of touch with the Brazilian electorate.That response was expected. What happened next was not.At the urging of Mr. Bolsonaro, some of Brazil’s leaders are now trying to make it a crime to incorrectly forecast an election.Brazil’s House of Representatives has fast-tracked a bill that would criminalize publishing a poll that is later shown to fall outside its margin of error. The House, which is controlled by Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies, is expected to vote and pass the measure in the coming days.The bill’s final shape and fate is unclear. House leaders have suggested they may soften the legislation, and its prospects in the Senate, where opponents of Mr. Bolsonaro are in the majority, appear far less certain.Still, whatever the measure’s fate, the proposal and other efforts to investigate pollsters for their recent miscalculations are part of a broader narrative pushed by Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies, without evidence, that Brazil’s political establishment and the left are trying to rig the election against him.As Brazil prepares to vote in a presidential runoff on Oct. 30, the surveys continue to show Mr. Bolsonaro trailing his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, though the race seems to be tightening.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva celebrating the results of the first round of elections in São Paulo earlier this month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesFor his part, Mr. Bolsonaro has taken to calling the polling firms “liars,” claimed that their mistakes swung up to three million votes to Mr. da Silva in the first round, and has advocated for the firms to face consequences. “Not for getting it wrong, OK? An error is one thing,” he said. “It’s for the crimes they committed.”He has not said what crimes he believes were committed.The Brazilian Association of Pollsters said in a statement that it was “outraged” at the attempts to criminalize surveys that turn out to be inaccurate.“Starting this type of investigation during the runoff campaign period, when the polling companies are carrying out their work, demonstrates another clear attempt to impede scientific research,” the group said.Polling firms added that their work was not to predict elections, but to provide a snapshot of voters’ intentions at the time a survey is conducted.The bill in Congress is not the only effort to target pollsters. Following a request from Mr. Bolsonaro’s campaign, Brazil’s justice minister ordered the federal police to open an investigation into polling firms over their surveys before the first election round. And Brazil’s federal antitrust agency opened its own inquiry into some of the nation’s top polling institutions for possible collusion.Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice and Brazil’s elections chief, quickly ordered both of those investigations halted, saying that they lacked jurisdiction and that they appeared to be doing the president’s political bidding. In turn, Mr. Moraes ordered Brazil’s election agency to investigate whether Mr. Bolsonaro was trying to use his power over federal agencies inappropriately.Mr. Moraes has emerged as the top check on Mr. Bolsonaro’s power over the past year, drawing criticism at times for measures that, according to experts in law and government, represent a repressive turn for Brazil’s top court.Among other moves, he has jailed five people without a trial for posts on social media that he said attacked Brazil’s institutions. On Thursday, election officials further expanded his power by giving him unilateral authority to suspend social media platforms in Brazil that do not quickly comply with his orders to remove misinformation.Alexandre de Moraes in Brasília before the first round of elections earlier this month.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. Moraes and Brazil’s Senate appear poised to protect polling firms from measures that target their surveys.Yet repeated claims that pollsters are corrupt could further weaken their ability to provide the best possible gauge of public opinion. Some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s top advisers have urged his supporters to ignore survey takers in order to sabotage their results.“Do not respond to any of them until the end of the election!!! That way, it’ll be certain from the start that any of their results are fraudulent,” Ciro Nogueira, Mr. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, wrote on Twitter. “Was their absurd screw-up criminal? Only a deep investigation will tell.”The top polling firms had forecast that Mr. Bolsonaro would receive roughly 36 percent of the vote in the first round. He received 43.2 percent, a seven-point gap that was outside virtually all polls’ margins of error.Their performance was even worse in many down-ballot races. In Rio de Janeiro, the polls showed that the conservative candidate for governor was ahead by about 9 percentage points. Instead, he won by 31 points.In São Paulo, some polls showed that a left-wing candidate for Senate was ahead of his opponent by 14 percentage points heading into the first election round. Instead, a right-wing candidate won by nearly that same margin — a swing of 28 percentage points from what the pre-election polls had found.The polling firms have blamed a variety of factors for their flawed forecasts, including outdated census data that hampered their ability to survey a statistically representative sample of voters. The firms said their polls were also undercut because a larger-than-expected wave of voters switched their ballots to Mr. Bolsonaro from third-party candidates at the last minute.Some polling firms also said they believed that many conservative voters were unwilling to answer their surveys.The share of older voters far exceeded expectations, potentially because of a government announcement this year that voting was a new way to establish proof of life and keep retirement benefits active. Polls on the eve of the election showed that older voters supported Mr. Bolsonaro over Mr. da Silva.Brazil is far from the only country where polls struggle to give an accurate picture of the electorate, particularly the strength of conservative support.In 2016, polls in the United States did not accurately forecast the support for Donald J. Trump, and the firms gave similar reasons for the miss, including that some right-wing voters were unwilling to answer surveys.President Jair Bolsonaro in São Paulo earlier this month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesThe credibility of Brazil’s polling firms was damaged after the election’s first round, and some journalists have become more hesitant to share surveys ahead of Sunday’s runoff.Ricardo Barros, a conservative congressman who is helping to push the bill to criminalize faulty polls, said the legislation would force polling companies to be more careful with their findings. Under the proposed law, only polls that err outside their margin of error would face liability.“If you’re not sure of the outcome, then place a margin of error of 10 percent,” he said. “It loses credibility, but it doesn’t misinform voters. The problem is that today it’s always being presented as an absolute truth.”Lawmakers in both the House and Senate have also gathered enough signatures to open congressional investigations into the polling firms, although the leader of the Senate is expected to move to block that chamber’s investigation.Alexandre Cordeiro Macedo, the head of Brazil’s federal antitrust agency and an appointee of Mr. Bolsonaro, tried to go further than Mr. Barros in taking aim at polling firms.Before Mr. Moraes intervened and stopped the inquiry, Mr. Cordeiro Macedo had accused top polling companies of collusion based on what he said was the statistical improbability that they all had underestimated Mr. Bolsonaro’s support by such a significant margin. He claimed that the scenario was about as likely as winning the lottery several times.But Alexandre Patriota, a statistics professor at the University of São Paulo, disputed that, saying proving collusion based solely on that single measure would be nearly impossible.“Even if all the institutes got it wrong in the same way, this is not an indication of a cartel,” he said. “To have a hint of malice, you need something more than numbers.” More

OCONOMOWOC, Wis. — Tom Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl champion, has for years been the subject of public affection from former President Donald J. Trump.But according to Tim Michels, the Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor, Mr. Brady is now on texting terms with another Republican seen as a White House contender: Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.Mr. DeSantis attended a Green Bay Packers football game last month and spent part of the game texting with Mr. Brady, according to Mr. Michels, who hosted the Florida governor in Green Bay and told supporters in Wisconsin last week about their time together. Mr. Brady first expressed support for Mr. Trump in 2015, when he was quarterback of the New England Patriots. He signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020.“I took Governor DeSantis to the Packer game at Lambeau Field,” Mr. Michels told a gathering of the Lake Country Patriots, a far-right group, on Thursday at a brewery in Oconomowoc, Wis. The New York Times was denied entry to the publicly advertised event, but obtained a recording of Mr. Michels’s remarks.Mr. DeSantis, who on the day of the Packers game had appeared at a rally for Mr. Michels and Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, “had never been to Lambeau Field before and he wanted to go,” Mr. Michels said. “We’re sitting there, you know, we’re watching the game and all of a sudden, I look over and he’s texting and he says, ‘How do you spell Lambeau?’”More on Ron DeSantis and His AdministrationReshaping Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has turned the swing state into a right-wing laboratory by leaning into cultural battles.Voter Fraud: A crackdown on voter fraud announced by Mr. DeSantis seems to have ensnared former felons who were puzzled that they were accused of violating voting laws.Migrant Flights: The governor’s move to fly migrants to Martha’s Vineyard from Texas, which appears to be part of a political strategy to lay the groundwork for a 2024 presidential bid, is under criminal investigation.Heir to Trump?: Mr. DeSantis has been signaling his desire to take over former President Donald J. Trump’s political movement. But is that what Republican voters want?Mr. Michels continued: “I say, ‘Who are you texting with?’ He says, ‘I’m texting with Tom Brady.’ The governor of Florida gets to text with Tom Brady.”Mr. Michels added, “I’m hoping that when I’m governor of Wisconsin, I can text Aaron Rodgers,” the longtime Packers quarterback.What Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Brady were discussing by text, beyond the governor’s location at that moment, remains a mystery. Representatives for Mr. Brady did not respond to requests for comment. A DeSantis spokeswoman declined to comment.There’s a bit to unpack here.In September 2015, Mr. Brady was among the first mainstream celebrities to promote Mr. Trump’s presidential candidacy. He was spotted with a red “Make America Great Again” hat in his locker and said “it would be great” if Mr. Trump, a longtime golfing partner, took the White House.But Mr. Brady — perhaps at the suggestion of his wife, Gisele Bündchen, who said she and her husband did not vote for Mr. Trump in 2016 — later kept his distance. When the Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2017, Mr. Brady did not attend the subsequent reception at the White House.Mr. Brady and Ms. Bündchen have in recent weeks reportedly hired divorce lawyers.Then there’s the idea that Mr. DeSantis, a Harvard- and Yale-educated former college athlete who has privately teased a 2024 presidential run, needed help spelling the name of the most storied stadium in the National Football League — and a hallowed place for many voters in a critical presidential battleground state. At least Mr. DeSantis didn’t need help pronouncing Lambeau, a name that has tripped up past presidential aspirants.For Mr. Michels, whose campaign also did not respond to inquiries about his remarks, it is good but perhaps risky politics to seek a friendship with Mr. Rodgers, himself a Super Bowl-winning quarterback (albeit only once, to the consternation of much of Wisconsin) who is unquestionably the most popular figure in the state.Mr. Rodgers, like Mr. Brady, has dabbled in politics with some complications. In 2011, he supported unionized public school teachers in their fight with Gov. Scott Walker. Later, he said the quarterback Colin Kaepernick belonged in the N.F.L. after Mr. Trump called for his banishment for kneeling during the pregame playing of the national anthem to protest police violence against Black people.But last year, Mr. Rodgers, who refused to be vaccinated against Covid, became a source of misinformation about the vaccines. That made him a hero to Wisconsin’s fellow vaccine skeptics, in particular Senator Johnson, who thanked him “for his courage in defending personal freedom and health autonomy.”This month, Mr. Johnson campaigned with Packers fans while wearing Mr. Rodgers’s jersey.Mr. Michels, who is locked in a tight battle with Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, was with Mr. Johnson outside Lambeau Field, though he was conspicuous in his lack of Packers gear. A local Democrat pointed out that Mr. Michels, a Wisconsin native who spent more than a decade living in Connecticut and Manhattan before moving back home to run for governor, was wearing a green vest that was the shade worn by the visiting Jets, not the hometown Packers. More

To regain power, Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving Israeli prime minister, will most likely need the support of Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right leader with a history of extreme views.TEL AVIV — He was barred as a teenager from serving in the Israeli Army because he was considered too extremist. He admires a hard-line rabbi who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship. Until recently, he hung a portrait in his home of Baruch Goldstein, who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994.Itamar Ben-Gvir, a rising far-right lawmaker, has long occupied the fringes of Israeli politics and been widely vilified for his extreme views. But now, as Israel prepares for its fifth election since 2019, and with the polls predicting a deadlock, he is likely to become a major player in Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid to regain power in the vote on Nov. 1.At a recent election rally for Mr. Ben-Gvir in southern Tel Aviv, supporters of Mr. Netanyahu were cheering on a candidate they knew would be critical for him.“We are from the same side,” said Limor Inbar, 58, an activist from Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party. “We share the same ideology.”Israeli voters face a choice between Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing parties — including Mr. Ben-Gvir’s far-right alliance — and the governing coalition of right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties, led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, that share little more than opposition to Mr. Netanyahu. Mr. Lapid’s alliance lost its parliamentary majority in the summer, a year after ousting Mr. Netanyahu, giving him another chance at power.A Ben-Gvir election poster last week in Jerusalem.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesAt the last election, in 2021, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s alliance only scraped into Parliament. This time, polls suggest it will be the second biggest group in Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc, and the third largest in the country.While right-wing dominance of Israeli politics is not new, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s rise illustrates how Mr. Netanyahu’s camp within the Israeli right has become more extreme and religious.As his traditional allies abandoned him, Mr. Netanyahu — though secular himself — has been forced to forge a stronger bond with ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. And though wary of appearing in public with them, he has become more reliant on ultranationalists like Mr. Ben-Gvir.Three decades ago, Likud, then a more traditional conservative party, shunned Mr. Ben-Gvir’s ideological forbear, Meir Kahane, for being too extreme. Today, Likud has moved further to the right, Mr. Ben-Gvir has cooled his support for Mr. Kahane, and Mr. Netanyahu has few other potential partners.If Mr. Ben-Gvir helps return Mr. Netanyahu to power, the government will be dependent on a lawmaker who hopes to upend Israel’s judicial system, grant legal immunity to Israeli soldiers who shoot at Palestinians, and deport rival lawmakers he accuses of terrorism.Less than two years after entering Parliament, “Ben-Gvir is the most important figure in the Israeli right wing after Netanyahu,” said Nadav Eyal, a leading Israeli political commentator.“We are from the same side,” said Limor Inbar, 58, left, an activist from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. “We share the same ideology.”Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times“He is not only popular with right-wing voters,” Mr. Eyal said. “He’s getting out the votes of people who never voted before.”For more than a quarter-century, Mr. Ben-Gvir, 46, was relevant only on Israel’s far-right fringe. In 1995, he was filmed holding an emblem ripped from the car of Yitzhak Rabin, the Israeli prime minister who signed the Oslo peace accords.“Just as we got to this emblem, we’ll get to Rabin,” he said at the time. Mr. Rabin was later assassinated; Mr. Ben-Gvir had no connection to his murder.Mr. Ben-Gvir is an admirer of Meir Kahane, an Israeli American extremist assassinated in 1990 who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship, segregate Israeli public space, and ban marriage between Jews and non-Jews.Mr. Ben-Gvir has often attended memorial events for Mr. Kahane, and has several convictions for incitement to racism and support for a terrorist group, as Mr. Kahane’s party is designated in Israel. A lawyer, Mr. Ben-Gvir has represented followers of Mr. Kahane and settlers accused of violence.Mr. Ben-Gvir in Israel’s Supreme Court this month.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesToday, Mr. Ben-Gvir still calls Mr. Kahane “a hero,” but has distanced himself from Mr. Kahane’s most extreme policies.“I have no problem, of course, with the minorities here,” he said in a brief voice message, after declining a full interview. “But whoever is a terrorist, whoever commits terror — and anyone who wants jihad and to annihilate Jews, and not only that, also hurts Arabs — I have a problem with him.”In other interviews, he has said he has become more moderate.The portrait of Mr. Goldstein, who killed the Palestinians in 1994, no longer hangs in Mr. Ben-Gvir’s home. He regrets the episode involving Mr. Rabin’s car, he said in September. If he had actually “got to” Mr. Rabin himself, he would have only shouted at him, Mr. Ben-Gvir added.He has told his supporters to chant, “Death to terrorists,” instead of, “Death to Arabs.” He does not support expelling all Arabs, only those he calls terrorists.“This is a Jewish country,” he said in his voice message. But, he added, “I also want this country to be a safe country for all its citizens.”In May 2021, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s visit to a Palestinian area of East Jerusalem, Sheikh Jarrah, exacerbated unrest in the neighborhood that contributed to an 11-day war between Israel and militants in Gaza. This month, he returned to the neighborhood and encouraged the police to open fire on Palestinian stone-throwers.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesThe sincerity of Mr. Ben-Gvir’s shift was placed in doubt in September by a senior member of his party, Jewish Power. In a leaked video, that party member, Almog Cohen, appeared to present his leader’s moderation as an election ploy.“Those who don’t use tricks, lose,” Mr. Cohen told a young supporter. Asked to elaborate by phone, Mr. Cohen declined to comment.But to many of his supporters, Mr. Ben-Gvir’s shift seems credible.He has moved “a long way” from Mr. Kahane’s ideas, said Sheffi Paz, a former leftist activist who now works with Jewish Power.Regardless, even the prospect of a reformed Mr. Ben-Gvir has drawn concern.In May 2021, his visits to a Palestinian area of East Jerusalem, Sheikh Jarrah, exacerbated unrest in the neighborhood that contributed to an 11-day war between Israel and militants in Gaza. This month, he returned to the neighborhood and encouraged the police to open fire on Palestinian stone-throwers.“Friends, they’re throwing rocks at us,” he said, pulling out his handgun. “Shoot them.”Some Israelis link his growing popularity to a gradual normalization of far-right thinking. The Israeli news media has granted Mr. Ben-Gvir more airtime this year than even some senior cabinet ministers, enhancing his profile.Supporters of Mr. Ben-Gvir this month in Tel Aviv.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times“The mainstream, average opinion in Israel has become closer to him,” said Ilan Rubin Fields, a documentary film director who interviewed Mr. Ben-Gvir in 2018. “I don’t think he’s that much more radical than the average person you’d stop in the street,” Mr. Fields added.Others attribute Mr. Ben-Gvir’s prominence to Mr. Netanyahu’s desperation.Mr. Netanyahu refused to leave office after being placed on trial for corruption in 2020, prompting right-wing allies to abandon him. That forced him to look for allies elsewhere.Since 2019, Mr. Netanyahu has helped broker alliances between far-right groups, including Mr. Ben-Gvir’s, that would have struggled to enter Parliament alone. His interventions helped legitimize Mr. Ben-Gvir, gave him a bigger platform and ultimately got him elected.The most recent intervention, in August, ensured another far-right party could benefit from Mr. Ben-Gvir’s now rocketing popularity.“Because of the threats Netanyahu feels for his very immediate and personal future, he is willing to lay his hand on Ben-Gvir and include him in his camp,” said Tomer Persico, a research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, a research group in Jerusalem. “That changes the whole of the Israeli political map.”A Ben-Gvir rally last week in Tel Aviv.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesMr. Ben-Gvir’s rise has also been propelled by young ultra-Orthodox voters who have grown disenchanted with traditional religious parties and right-wing secular Israelis who voted in the last election for Naftali Bennett.A former settler leader, Mr. Bennett was expected to help extend Mr. Netanyahu’s tenure. But he angered his base by forming a coalition with Mr. Lapid instead, as well as, for the first time in Israel history, a party from the country’s Arab minority.To his former supporters, the decision endangered the country’s Jewish identity and stifled the government’s ability to deal with Arab militants. It drove some of them to Mr. Ben-Gvir.“We have to save our Jewish state,” said Ms. Inbar, the activist.She stood behind Mr. Ben-Gvir at his rally, holding up a placard that suggested that only a right-wing government could block Arab influence on Israeli politics.“Yameen o Falasteen,” the sign said in Hebrew. “The Right — or Palestine.”Mr. Ben-Gvir entering the Supreme Court to discuss a petition he filed against the signature of the maritime border agreement with Lebanon.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesGabby Sobelman More