Elections

For our podcast The Run-Up, Astead Herndon and his team are talking with voters of all stripes. For many of them, frustration with politics is tied to their worries about democracy.Today’s newsletter is a guest piece from Astead Herndon, a reporter for The New York Times who is hosting our political podcast The Run-Up, which returned this week. Listen to the first episode here. You can follow The Run-Up on platforms including Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher and Amazon Music.Voters in both parties think the United States is heading in the wrong direction, public opinion surveys show — and, more alarming, large majorities of Americans believe democracy is in danger of collapse.The Run-Up, a political podcast that I host, explores how Democratic and Republican voters came to agree on that worry and how these midterm elections might break from the historical mold.For our first episode, we called dozens of voters who had participated in New York Times polling to talk about their concerns in greater detail. The conversations made clear that for many people, frustration with politics is tied to worries about democracy.Photo illustration: The New York Times; Photo: Samuel Corum for The New York TimesHere are four types of voters who could be pivotal in the midterms and from whom we’ll be hearing more on The Run-Up as November approaches:The skeptical Trump voter“The voting system is not secure, and I’m just having doubts as to whether or not it’ll make a difference if I vote at all.” — Belinda SchoendorfIn several nonpresidential elections since the 2020 contest between Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, a dip in enthusiasm from Trump’s voters has hurt Republican candidates. Most notably, in the two Senate elections that took place in Georgia before Biden’s inauguration, Republican voters failed to turn out in large numbers for their party’s candidates.Worries about election integrity, stoked by the false conspiracy theories Trump and his allies have embraced, have discouraged some of the most energized conservative voters from casting ballots or supporting candidates who do not reflect Trump’s wild claims. The result is a Republican quandary: a midterm landscape with candidates who reflect Trump’s grievances but have not motivated his voters to the same degree that he did.In this year’s midterm elections so far, Democratic energy has surged — in what appears to be a result of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. If Republicans are to turn their hopes around, they will need their most passionate voters to match Democrats’ newfound enthusiasm, even though Trump won’t be on the 2022 ballot himself.The court’s decision has scrambled the typical midterm circumstances, in which the party out of power enjoys the benefits of an energized voting base.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries winding down, both parties are starting to shift their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Battleground Pennsylvania: Few states feature as many high-stakes, competitive races as Pennsylvania, which has emerged as the nation’s center of political gravity.The Dobbs Decision’s Effect: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women signing up to vote has surged in some states and the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage are hard to see.How a G.O.P. Haul Vanished: Last year, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans was smashing fund-raising records. Now, most of the money is gone.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to former President Donald J. Trump or to adjust their stances on abortion.The young voterBiden “isn’t taking the action that needs to be taken on things like health care, climate change, etc. And I don’t feel like he’s using the tools he could use if he wanted to, you know, make good on his campaign promises.” — Lucy Ackerman, 23Biden’s approval rating hit rock bottom this summer, to the point where even many Democratic voters expressed frustration with his administration.But in the past month, he has improved his historically low standing among voters by appearing to win back some of these same Democrats — those who believed that the president and his administration should do more for those who elevated him to power.This comes after the White House has notched a series of legislative victories in recent weeks — most notably a sweeping climate, tax and drug-pricing package that followed through on several campaign promises. Biden also moved to cancel billions of dollars in student debt for borrowers.However, the constituencies among whom student debt relief polls the best — particularly young people — do not always turn out in big numbers during midterm elections. Democrats are hoping that changes in November.Lucy Ackerman, 23, a recent college graduate, said she felt young people weren’t receiving an adequate return on their vote for Biden. The reasons extended beyond policy to a fear that Democrats weren’t doing enough to address problems she believed were distorting democracy, including gerrymandering, the Senate filibuster and the Electoral College.Will young voters reward Democrats for Biden’s major move on student debt? Or will it not be enough to change their traditional behavior, considering that the president, who served in Congress for nearly half a century, represents the political establishment to many of these voters?President Biden’s approval ratings have risen lately after dropping into the 30s.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesThe disillusioned Democrat“I think democracy is much more fragile than I thought.” — Ramiro MartinezIf Biden’s actions on student debt could energize young people, other policies would be more relevant to moderate Democrats.Beyond the climate and tax bill, Democratic candidates are promoting the party’s legislative accomplishments on gun control, infrastructure and coronavirus relief. The party has taken to promoting its ability to “deliver” in advertisements across the country, an acknowledgment that the midterms could be a judgment on their policy agenda.However, voter decisions aren’t made only on policy grounds. Ramiro Martinez, a Democrat who lives in Massachusetts, said that he appreciated Biden’s focus on Trump in the Democratic primary but that he had been disillusioned by the country’s direction since Biden’s inauguration. Recent Supreme Court decisions have rocked his faith in electoral politics, and he has also been frustrated with some cultural changes he sees in the Democratic Party.In fact, Ramiro framed his voting decision in those terms, balancing the threats to democracy he believes Republicans pose with frustrations he has with a Democratic Party that has — in his words — become “woke,” embracing ideas on race and social justice that he felt were rigid and uncompromising.Still, Ramiro said he expected to back Democratic candidates, particularly after watching the Jan. 6 committee hearings in the House of Representatives. Democrats are hoping that moderate liberals across the country make a similar calculation.The non-MAGA Republican“I tended to support Trump for a long time. But he’s just, he has gone too far negative.” — Clair CowdenThe most important demographic in the midterms could be the moderate Republican voter.Although Trump has continued to dominate the Republican Party, whose base reflects his interests and grievances, some G.O.P. voters have tired of his constant headlines. Need proof? Trump’s favorability rating has dipped among Republicans — and potential rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, notably Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, have started to emerge.Clair Cowden, who once voted for Trump, said she had been turned off by what she learned during the Jan. 6 committee hearings about his actions.Biden and other Democrats have bet their electoral hopes in part on moderate attrition from the Republican Party. In races for Senate and governor — particularly in states with Trump-like candidates on the ballot, such as Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin — Democrats have asked moderate Republicans to put ideological differences aside in the name of preserving democracy.However, as issues like inflation and the economy continue to dominate voters’ lists of concerns, the question for Democrats is one of urgency. Will voters see protecting democracy to be as pressing a political challenge as Biden does? Or will other issues — where Democrats poll worse — take greater precedence?We’ll be listening to their answers. For today’s, tune in here.What to readIn one of the nation’s most prominent governor’s races, Democrats in Georgia are increasingly worried about Stacey Abrams’s chances of beating Gov. Brian Kemp as she consistently trails him in polls. Maya King and Reid Epstein dove in.A review by The New York Times of about 400 voting-fraud charges filed nationwide since 2017 underscores that actual prosecutions are exceedingly rare, and that penalties can be wildly inconsistent and are often harsher for poor and Black people. Michael Wines has the details.Election officials are beefing up security for themselves, their employees, polling places and even drop boxes as violent language from the right intensifies. Neil Vigdor surveys the protective steps.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at [email protected]. More

President Jair Bolsonaro called his supporters and the military to the streets to celebrate Brazil’s 200th anniversary. Then he softened his campaign tone.RIO DE JANEIRO — On the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence, President Jair Bolsonaro had roughly half the country celebrating and half the country on edge.Tanks rolled down the streets of São Paulo, the country’s largest city, on Wednesday. Warships paraded off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Jets soared over the nation’s capital, Brasília. And more than a million of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters took to the streets across the vast nation, draped in the green and yellow of Brazil’s flag.For months, the bicentennial had been billed as a test of Brazil’s democracy.The left in Brazil feared that Mr. Bolsonaro would use the moment to declare war on Brazil’s democratic institutions and preview an attempt to hold onto power if he loses the presidential election next month. The right said it would simply be a peaceful Independence Day celebration — with a clear tilt toward the nation’s president — as it had been in years past.In the end, the atmosphere was more of a party than an uprising. And Mr. Bolsonaro — who for months has made worrisome comments about the security of the elections and his willingness to accept the results — took a markedly softer tack in two speeches to his supporters.An aircraft team performing acrobatics over Copacabana beach during Independence Day celebrations in Rio de Janeiro.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesHe touted what he said were his accomplishments — cheap fuel, relatively low inflation — and focused on campaign promises, including keeping abortion and drugs illegal and fighting what he calls “gender ideology,” or the movement to re-examine the concept of gender.Perhaps his most forceful comments were calling his political rivals “evil” and warning that they would try to break the laws in the Constitution. “Wait for the re-election and see if everyone plays by the rules,” he said. At one point, he appeared to reflect on his past comments: “We all change. We all improve. We can all be better in the future.”The shift in tone was in line with advice Mr. Bolsonaro has been receiving from some senior advisers, who have warned him that attacking the country’s elections systems and democratic institutions is not particularly popular with the moderate voters he needs to win over to prevail in October’s election, according to one senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential meetings.There have also been recent signs of a truce between election officials and Brazil’s armed forces, which have backed Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that Brazil’s elections systems are vulnerable.Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters have repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that the election in Brazil will be rigged.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesYet Mr. Bolsonaro has shifted tones frequently in the past. The morning before the bicentennial celebrations, he was casting doubt on Brazil’s voting machines in an interview with a right-wing news network. And last Independence Day, his speech caused a brief institutional crisis after he said he would not respect the decisions of one Supreme Court justice. Days later, he walked those comments back.The election, pitting Mr. Bolsonaro against the former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will be one of the most closely watched votes in Latin America in decades. Brazilians will cast their ballots on Oct. 2 and, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, again on Oct. 30 in a runoff. Mr. da Silva has held a steady and comfortable lead in the polls.Mr. Bolsonaro, a right-wing nationalist, has made attacks on Brazil’s Supreme Court and its elections systems central to his political rhetoric for years. He has argued, with little evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting machines are vulnerable to fraud, and he has accused several Supreme Court justices of political persecution..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.Those judges cleared corruption charges against Mr. da Silva, freeing him from prison and allowing him to run in this year’s election. They have forced social networks to take down inflammatory or false posts from Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters (as well as from Mr. da Silva). And they are investigating Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies in a number of cases, including for accusations of spreading misinformation and leaking classified information.One judge, Alexandre de Moraes, who is also Brazil’s new elections chief, stoked tensions further last month when he ordered several prominent businessmen’s homes to be searched, their bank accounts to be frozen and some of their social-media accounts to be blocked. His evidence supporting the action was a series of leaked text messages that suggested the businessmen would support a military coup if Mr. da Silva won the presidency.A military parade on Wednesday commemorating the 200th anniversary of Brazilian independence in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro has called Mr. Moraes’s actions against the businessmen a gross abuse of power. On Wednesday, he said the men’s privacy was violated. Earlier in the day, one of those businessmen, Luciano Hang, the owner of a Brazilian department-store chain, stood between Mr. Bolsonaro and the president of Portugal for a period as they watched the military parade in Brasília.Mr. Bolsonaro had called his supporters to the streets to celebrate “our sacred liberty.” Political analysts and leaders on the left had worried about the prospects of violence; a group of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters had tried and failed to get past the barricades of the Supreme Court during similar Independence Day celebrations last year.Yet the festivities were peaceful. There were families with children, older people in wheelchairs, and vendors selling beer, snacks, Brazilian flags and shirts with Mr. Bolsonaro’s face. Authorities had increased security, including deploying snipers and drones, and there were few signs that supporters were planning to challenge the country’s institutions beyond chants that Mr. da Silva belonged in jail and that Mr. Moraes should be impeached.Despite Mr. Bolsonaro’s toned-down rhetoric, his supporters still wanted to focus on the Supreme Court and the voting machines.“The Supreme Court is supposed to be the guardian of the Constitution, and yet every day they’re finding a new way to rip it up,” said Gabriel Miguel, 32, a real-estate lawyer draped in a Brazilian flag and wearing a camouflage hat. He accused Mr. da Silva’s party of cheating in past elections, and said there would be consequences if they attempted fraud this year. “They wouldn’t dare to do anything against democracy,” he said.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro in São Paulo on Wednesday, where merchants peddled Bolsonaro-related items.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMany Brazilians on the left accused Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters of co-opting Brazil’s bicentennial celebrations for a political event. Mr. da Silva told his supporters to instead join him for a rally in Rio on Thursday.Mr. Bolsonaro arrived at his speech in Rio on a motorcycle, leading a parade of motorcycles driven by supporters. Such “motociatas,” or motorcycle rallies, have been a hallmark of his political brand, featured prominently in his campaign videos, and his way of visiting areas of Brazil outside major population centers.In Brasília, he watched the military parade from a stage with his wife, Michelle, and a phalanx of government and military officials. “We are here to fulfill God’s calling,” Michelle Bolsonaro told the crowd. “The enemy shall not win.”In his speech there, Mr. Bolsonaro continued his strategy of making his masculinity a central part of his campaign. “I’ve been telling single men, singles who are tired of being unhappy, find a woman,” he said. “A princess. Marry her.” He then kissed Michelle.The crowd began chanting “imbrochável,” a slightly vulgar Portuguese word that translates roughly to “never limp” that Mr. Bolsonaro has adopted as part of his political brand.Mr. Bolsonaro joined the crowd and chanted: “Never limp! Never limp! Never limp!”More than a million supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro turned out across the country on Wednesday, including in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesAndré Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília, and Lis Moriconi from Rio de Janeiro. More

Plus India’s growing economy and China’s “zero-Covid” trap.“I hope to see Chairman Xi Jinping soon,” Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said.Pool photo by Greg BakerPutin and Xi are expected to meetVladimir Putin, Russia’s leader, said yesterday that he expected to meet next week with Xi Jinping, his counterpart in China.Putin will attend a gathering of Asian leaders in Uzbekistan on Sept. 15 and 16. Chinese officials did not immediately confirm that Xi would attend; he has not left China since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. But Russia’s ambassador to China described the session as the leaders’ “first full-fledged summit during the pandemic.”An in-person conversation could help the Kremlin expand its strengthening partnership with China. Russia reoriented its economy toward Asia after European and American countries severed economic ties with Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.Context: Putin said he also hoped to have a joint meeting with the president of Mongolia, where Russia is considering building a natural gas pipeline that would reach China.Diplomacy: Beijing has not endorsed the invasion, but it has echoed Kremlin talking points in describing the U.S. as the “main instigator” of the conflict and provided Russia with much-needed economic support. Russia has offered geopolitical backing to China, including in the escalating tensions around Taiwan.Other updates:In a speech, Putin appeared to brush off the toll of the war, which U.S. officials estimate has killed or wounded 80,000 Russian soldiers. “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything,” he said.European countries are growing more confident that they can move away from Russia’s fossil fuels. Yesterday, the European Commission said it would ask countries to approve a price cap on Russian gas.Despite the war, daily life in Moscow seems almost unchanged.India’s economy must support 1.4 billion people.Atul Loke for The New York TimesIndia’s resilient economyIndia’s government expects the economy to grow 7 percent or more this year. That’s more than double the projections for global growth, which has slowed sharply as major economies stall.The rapid expansion partly reflects the depths to which the economy had fallen during the most devastating shocks of the pandemic, which forced an exodus of laborers from cities. It also reflects the nature of India’s economy, which is partially insulated from global trends because it is driven more by local demand than exports.Many also credit a suite of government policies — including increased public investment, relief to debtors and credit guarantees — which have helped keep inflation relatively in check and cushion the public from economic shocks. And discounted oil from Russia, against the wishes of Western allies, have helped buffer rising energy prices.The State of the WarZaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: After United Nations inspectors visited the Russian-controlled facility last week amid continuing shelling and fears of a looming nuclear catastrophe, the organization released a report calling for Russia and Ukraine to halt all military activity around the complex.An Expanding Military: Though President Vladimir V. Putin ordered a sharp increase in the size of Russia’s armed forces, he seems reluctant to declare a draft. Here is why.Russia’s Military Supplies: According to newly declassified American intelligence, Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea — a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states.Far From the War: Though much of Russia’s effort on the battlefield has not gone as Mr. Putin had planned, at home he has mostly succeeded in shielding Russians from the hardships of war — no draft, no mass funerals, no feelings of loss or conflict.Data: India’s economy is now the fifth largest economy in the world. It surpassed Britain, its former colonizer.Challenges: India’s economy remains unable to create enough jobs for the waves of educated young people who enter the labor force each year, and its growth remains top-heavy, analysts said. Growth is projected to slow next year to about 6 percent.In Chengdu, roads were nearly empty as a lockdown continued.CNS, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesChina’s “zero Covid” bindAlmost every country in the world has moved past Covid restrictions. But tens of millions of people in China are again under some form of lockdown as the country continues its total commitment to fighting the coronavirus.Economic and social costs are mounting. Youth unemployment reached a record 20 percent in August, according to official statistics. But Beijing has backed itself into a corner.It has repeatedly prioritized politics over science: China has been relying only on homegrown vaccines, which are less effective than foreign ones. And buoyed by its early success at containment, Beijing was slow to encourage shots, leaving a disproportionate number of older people unvaccinated.Since few Chinese people have natural immunity, the risks of loosening controls may be even higher. “That sort of makes the zero-Covid policy self-sustaining,” a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations said.Politics: Xi Jinping, the country’s leader, has tied support for the “zero Covid” policy to support for the Communist Party, ahead of a meeting in October where he is all but assured to extend his rule.THE LATEST NEWSNatural Disasters in AsiaXi Jinping, China’s leader, personally ordered that the government will “spare no effort to rescue” people.Ye Xiaolong/Xinhua, via Associated PressThe death toll from the earthquake in southwestern China has risen to 74, The Associated Press reports. People in Chengdu, which is under lockdown, were prevented from leaving their homes even as their buildings shook.At least 10 people died after Typhoon Hinnamnor hit South Korea, BBC reports.Flooding in Pakistan damaged Mohenjo-daro, a UNESCO World Heritage site that is at least 4,500 years old, The South China Morning Post reports. Reuters reports that Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, said some areas look “like a sea.”Other Asia and Pacific NewsFive speech therapists in Hong Kong were found guilty of sedition, Reuters reports. Authorities said they planned to publish anti-government children’s books.At least 32 people died in a fire in a karaoke parlor in Vietnam, BBC reports.Archaeologists found a 31,000-year-old skeleton in Borneo, which appeared to have the earliest known evidence of surgery, The Guardian reports.The Japanese yen continues to slide, Bloomberg reports. It is on track for its worst year on record.Around the World“It is great to be back,” Barack Obama said at the ceremony.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe White House unveiled the long-delayed official portraits of Barack and Michelle Obama.Liz Truss, Britain’s new prime minister, is assembling a racially diverse but ideologically uniform cabinet. Most are conservatives loyal to her.France expelled a Moroccan imam accused of hate speech after a legal fight and debate over civil liberties.What Else Is Happening“I feel like I’ve let so many people down,” Nick Kyrgios said. Julian Finney/Getty ImagesNick Kyrgios, the temperamental Australian, lost at the U.S. Open after beating Daniil Medvedev, the top seed.Apple unveiled its new iPhone and expanded its line of smartwatches.Jaap van Zweden, the New York Philharmonic’s music director, will lead the Seoul Philharmonic Orchestra.A Morning ReadPresident Xi Jinping, in his trademark blue wind jacket with oversize trousers, has not been seen as a fashion influencer. Until now.Li Xueren/Xinhua, via Associated PressYoung men in China are donning an understated, middle-aged “office and bureau style”: Oversized trousers, dull colors, maybe a small briefcase.Some trend followers may be poking fun at China’s conformity. But others are earnest: They say that the unabashedly conservative look suggests a stable career path and a respectable lifestyle — sort of a Communist Party version of preppy.Lives lived: Dr. Ronald Glasser, a U.S. Army physician, wrote the acclaimed book “365 Days” about wounded soldiers. He died last month at 83.ARTS AND IDEASBooker finalistsSix novels have been named finalists for this year’s Booker Prize. Several of them use humor to address painful chapters of history: In “Glory,” the Zimbabwean author NoViolet Bulawayo writes about the fall of an African dictator from the perspective of talking animals. Percival Everett’s story of Black detectives, “The Trees,” lampoons the inescapable nature of American racism.The authors come from four continents and have a wide range of styles — from quiet, introspective fiction to fantasy. “The prize is a moment for everyone to pause and to marvel at what English as a language can actually do,” Neil MacGregor, the chair of this year’s judges, said.Read more about the finalists.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York TimesThis baek kimchi jjigae, or white kimchi stew, is deeply savory with a gingery bite.What to Listen toTake five minutes to experience Alice Coltrane’s spiritual jazz.What to Read“Strangers to Ourselves,” by the New Yorker writer Rachel Aviv, is an intimate and revelatory account of mental illness.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Dead Sea and Caspian Sea, despite their names (five letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The Times is launching a new team focused on data analysis of U.S. elections.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on the nuclear plant standoff in Ukraine.You can reach Amelia and the team at [email protected]. More

La destreza ideológica de la nueva líder británica, que algunos críticos califican de oportunismo, la ha ayudado a avanzar peldaños en la política. Ahora necesitará toda su habilidad para tener éxito.LONDRES — Cuando era una apasionada estudiante de 19 años en Oxford en 1994, Elizabeth Truss pidió un referéndum para abolir la monarquía británica, diciendo a una audiencia de compañeros demócratas liberales: “No creemos que la gente deba nacer para gobernar”.El martes, tres décadas después, Truss, quien ahora tiene 47 años y es conocida como Liz, viajó a un castillo escocés para ser ungida por la reina Isabel II como la nueva primera ministra del Reino Unido, con lo que completa así una odisea política que la ha llevado de ser una republicana bulliciosa a convertirse en la líder del Partido Conservador, revestida de tradición.Hace tiempo que Truss se decantó por la monarquía por considerarla buena para la democracia británica, y también hace tiempo que abandonó el ala liberal-demócrata por el ala conservadora. Más recientemente, cambió de bando en lo que respecta al brexit: antes del referéndum de 2016 se oponía al esfuerzo para que el Reino Unido abandonara la Unión Europea, y luego revirtió el rumbo y se convirtió en una de sus más fervientes evangelizadoras.Su destreza ideológica —los críticos lo llamarían oportunismo— ha contribuido a impulsar a Truss a la cúspide de la política británica. La preparación de Truss para los rigores del trabajo es otra cuestión, teniendo en cuenta las graves tendencias económicas que envuelven al país, y un partido tory que parece dividido entre el deseo de un nuevo comienzo y el arrepentimiento por haber echado a su extravagante predecesor, Boris Johnson.Simpatizantes animando a Truss en un acto de campaña en Manchester, Inglaterra, en agosto. Su mensaje se centró en bajar los impuestos y reducir el gobierno.Molly Darlington/ReutersTruss, según ella misma admite, no tiene el carisma de Johnson. Es torpe socialmente, mientras que él es de trato fácil, es vacilante en su modo de hablar, mientras que él es fluido. Pero Truss avanzó las filas del partido con lo que sus colegas describen como resistencia, empuje y un apetito por la política disruptiva. Cuando Johnson tuvo problemas, se posicionó con destreza: no rompió nunca públicamente con él y se mantuvo en el centro de la atención como una secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores de línea dura.“Tiene mucha confianza en sus instintos”, dijo Marc Stears, un politólogo que fue tutor de Truss cuando estaba en Oxford. “Está dispuesta a correr riesgos y a decir cosas que otros no están dispuestos a decir. A veces, eso le funciona; otras veces, la perjudica”.Acartonada en público, Truss es divertida en privado, dicen sus amigos, con un trato directo e informal, una debilidad por el karaoke y un amor sin reparos por la estrella del pop Taylor Swift. Una vez compartió una selfi con Swift en una entrega de premios, añadiendo la leyenda “Look what you made me do” (Mira lo que me hiciste hacer), el título de una de las exitosas canciones de Swift.Truss necesitará todo su instinto y agilidad para desempeñar el trabajo que hereda de Johnson. Expulsado del cargo por los legisladores de su partido tras una serie de escándalos, ha dejado tras de sí una pila de problemas de enormes proporciones, no muy diferentes de los que tuvo que afrontar Margaret Thatcher cuando se convirtió en la primera mujer en asumir el gobierno del Reino Unido en 1979, durante un periodo anterior de dificultades económicas.Truss se ha inspirado en Thatcher, posando sobre un tanque como lo hizo su heroína en Alemania Occidental y vistiendo blusas de seda con lazos, un elemento básico del vestuario de Thatcher. Pero sus ideas políticas son más parecidas a las de otro héroe de la derecha, Ronald Reagan: las promesas de bajar los impuestos y reducir el gobierno, junto con una celebración del Reino Unido posbrexit como una “nación de aspiración”.Ese mensaje atrajo a los cerca de 160.000 miembros del Partido Conservador, en su mayoría blancos y de edad avanzada, que la eligieron por encima de las duras verdades ofrecidas por su oponente, Rishi Sunak, exministro de Economía. Ahora, tendrá que volver a pivotar para liderar un país diverso y dividido que se enfrenta a sus peores noticias económicas en una generación.Truss se ha inspirado en Margaret Thatcher, pero sus ideas políticas se parecen más a la de otro héroe de la derecha, Ronald Reagan.Helmuth Lohmann/Associated Press“Una de las cosas que ha beneficiado a Liz Truss es que es tribal”, dijo Jill Rutter, investigadora principal de U.K. in a Changing Europe, un instituto de investigación de Londres. “Está muy dispuesta a abrazar todo lo relacionado con un equipo. El problema de ser una jugadora de equipo es que ahora tiene que definir la agenda”.Nacida en 1975, cuatro años antes de que Thatcher llegara al poder, Truss creció en una familia declaradamente de izquierda, con un padre matemático y una madre profesora y enfermera. Habla a menudo de su paso por una secundaria pública en la dura ciudad de Leeds, que, según ella, “defraudaba” a sus alumnos con bajas expectativas, escasas oportunidades y un ayuntamiento atrapado en las garras de lo políticamente correcto.Algunos de sus contemporáneos cuestionan su relato de la época escolar. Señalan que creció en un barrio acomodado de la ciudad que durante mucho tiempo votó por los conservadores. También la acusan de demeritar a sus profesores, que la ayudaron a ser admitida —después de vivir un año en Canadá con su familia— en el Merton College, uno de los colegios más rigurosos académicamente de Oxford.En Oxford, Truss estudió filosofía, política y economía, un programa de estudios de élite del que ha salido un club de políticos prominentes, incluido un ex primer ministro, David Cameron. Algunos han criticado el programa por dar prioridad a la facilidad de palabra y al estudio rápido. Pero Stears dijo que Truss no se ajustaba al cliché de una estudiante de ese programa.“Su habilidad particular no consistía en dominar un encargo ni en ser simplista o fácil, sino en dar con algo inesperado”, dijo. “Cada obra que realizaba era provocativa. Se deleita en la controversia y en provocar a la gente”.Rishi Sunak, rival de Truss por el liderazgo del Partido Conservador, perdió por unos 21.000 votos.Susannah Ireland/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLa política la atrajo pronto, y Truss se convirtió en presidenta de los Demócratas Liberales de la Universidad de Oxford, donde hizo campaña para legalizar la marihuana. Sin embargo, poco después de graduarse en 1996, se pasó a los conservadores, un partido que entonces deambulaba hacia el páramo de la política. Trabajó en el sector privado, para el gigante energético Shell y para Cable & Wireless, y obtuvo el título de contadora pública.En el año 2000, Truss se casó con Hugh O’Leary, un contador al que conoció en una conferencia del partido y con el que ahora tiene dos hijas. Su vida personal amenazó brevemente su carrera en 2005, después de que mantuviera una relación extramatrimonial con un miembro del Parlamento, Mark Field, quien también estaba casado, al que el partido había nombrado su mentor político. El matrimonio de Field se rompió; el de Truss sobrevivió.Elegida al Parlamento en 2010 como diputada por el suroeste de Norfolk, Truss llegó a ocupar seis puestos ministeriales durante los gobiernos de tres primeros ministros conservadores. Su historial político, según la gente que la conoce, era variado, y le costaba hablar en público.Mientras ocupaba el cargo de secretaria de Medio Ambiente en 2014, fue objeto de muchas burlas por un discurso en el que señaló con ligereza que el Reino Unido importaba dos tercios de su queso, para luego fruncir el ceño y añadir portentosamente: “¡Eso es una vergüenza!”.Fue más persuasiva en la campaña contra la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea. En un discurso ante un grupo de la industria de la alimentación y las bebidas, Truss dijo: “Creo que los británicos son gente sensata. Entienden fundamentalmente que, desde el punto de vista económico, al Reino Unido le conviene permanecer en una Unión Europea reformada”.Truss haciendo campaña para el Partido Conservador en West Walton, Norfolk, en 2010.Chris Radburn/Press Association vía Associated PressTras la votación de 2016, Truss dio marcha atrás para convertirse en una entusiasta del brexit. “Me equivoqué, y estoy dispuesta a admitir que me equivoqué”, dijo recientemente, al sostener que las advertencias sobre los efectos calamitosos del brexit habían sido exageradas y que, de hecho, había desencadenado beneficios.Aunque pocos culpan a Truss por su cambio juvenil de liberal-demócrata a conservadora, muchos critican su apoyo retroactivo al brexit. “Esa no es una respuesta seria”, dijo Rutter, de U.K. in a Changing Europe. “Se acumulan las pruebas de que si dificultas el comercio con tu mayor socio comercial, eso perjudica a tu economía”.Ese cambio de postura no ha sido un obstáculo en su carrera. Truss pasó por puestos en el Departamento de Justicia y el Tesoro antes de que Johnson la nombrara ministra de Comercio Internacional en 2019. Recorrió el mundo, firmó acuerdos comerciales posbrexit con Japón, Australia y otros países. Los analistas señalaron que eran en gran medida versiones cortadas y pegadas de los acuerdos de la Unión Europea, pero ella supo beneficiarse de la publicidad.“Muy pronto me pareció que era una probable candidata a primera ministra”, dijo Robert E. Lighthizer, quien, como representante comercial del entonces presidente estadounidense Donald Trump, inició conversaciones sobre un acuerdo transatlántico con Truss.Por el camino, Truss ha mostrado intéres por las fuerzas disruptivas, como el servicio de Uber. Una vez publicó en Twitter que la generación más joven de británicos era “#Uber-riding #Airbnb-ing #Deliveroo-eating #freedomfighters”.La campaña por el liderazgo del partido incluyó una visita a una planta de producción de Jaguar el mes pasado.Foto de consorcio de Jacob King“Ha estado muy dispuesta a definirse a sí misma como una disruptora y a establecer un vínculo entre eso y un enfoque político que beneficie al país”, dijo Bronwen Maddox, directora de Chatham House, la institución de investigación londinense. “Eso tiene algo de refrescante, además de ser obviamente un peligro”.Al igual que Thatcher, también se presenta como una férrea defensora de la democracia occidental. Elevada a secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores en 2021, Truss superó incluso a Johnson en su línea dura contra Rusia. “Putin debe perder en Ucrania”, declaró el pasado marzo durante una visita a Lituania. En vísperas de la guerra, mantuvo una famosa y gélida reunión con el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores ruso, Serguéi Lavrov.Según sus colegas, Truss estará encantada de enfrentarse a Putin. Pero algunos predicen que su mayor némesis será Johnson. Ambicioso y todavía popular entre las bases conservadoras, es probable que siga siendo un personaje noticioso, que podría burlarse de Truss desde los bancos del Parlamento o en una columna de prensa, según Gavin Barwell, quien fue jefe de gabinete de la predecesora de Johnson, Theresa May.“Va a ser como el fantasma de Banquo”, dijo Barwell, en referencia a la aparición que atormentaba al Macbeth de Shakespeare. “En el momento en que se vea en dificultades políticas, habrá un movimiento para traer de vuelta a Boris”.Mark Landler es el jefe de la oficina de Londres. En 27 años en el Times, ha sido jefe de la oficina en Hong Kong y Fráncfort, corresponsal en la Casa Blanca, corresponsal diplomático, corresponsal económico europeo y reportero de negocios en Nueva York. @MarkLandler More

WASHINGTON — After 15 years of scrapes with the police, the last thing that 33-year-old Therris L. Conney needed was another run-in with the law. He got one anyway two years ago, after election officials held a presentation on voting rights for inmates of the county jail in Gainesville, Fla.Apparently satisfied that he could vote, Mr. Conney registered after the session, and cast a ballot in 2020. In May, he was arrested for breaking a state law banning voting by people serving felony sentences — and he was sentenced to almost another full year in jail.That show-no-mercy approach to voter fraud is what Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has encouraged this year during his re-election campaign. “That was against the law,” he said last month about charges against 20 other felons who voted in Florida, “and they’re going to pay a price for it.”But many of those cases seem to already be falling apart, because, like Mr. Conney, the former felons did not intend to vote illegally. And the more typical kind of voter-fraud case in Florida has long exacted punishment at a steep discount.Last winter, four residents of the Republican-leaning retirement community The Villages were arrested for voting twice — once in Florida, and again in other states where they had also lived.Despite being charged with third-degree felonies, the same as Mr. Conney, two of the Villages residents who pleaded guilty escaped having a criminal record entirely by taking a 24-hour civics class. Trials are pending for the other two.Florida is an exaggerated version of America as a whole. A review by The New York Times of some 400 voting-fraud charges filed nationwide since 2017 underscores what critics of fraud crackdowns have long said: Actual prosecutions are blue-moon events, and often netted people who didn’t realize they were breaking the law.Punishment can be wildly inconsistent: Most violations draw wrist-slaps, while a few high-profile prosecutions produce draconian sentences. Penalties often fall heaviest on those least able to mount a defense. Those who are poor and Black are more likely to be sent to jail than comfortable retirees facing similar charges.The high-decibel political rhetoric behind fraud prosecutions drowns out how infrequent — and sometimes how unfair — those prosecutions are, said Richard L. Hasen, an expert on election law and democracy issues at the U.C.L.A. School of Law.“It’s hard to see felons in Gainesville getting jail terms, and then look at people in The Villages getting no time at all, and see this as a rational system,” he said.The Times searched newspapers in all 50 states, internet accounts of fraud and online databases of cases, including one maintained by the conservative Heritage Foundation, to compile a list of prosecutions in the last five years. But there is no comprehensive list of voter fraud cases, and The Times’ list is undoubtedly incomplete.Election workers in Riviera Beach, Fla., prepared ballots to be counted by machine after the November 2020 general election.Saul Martinez for The New York TimesThe number of individuals charged — roughly one and one-half per state per year — is infinitesimal in a country where more than 159.7 million votes were cast in the 2020 general election alone.For all the fevered rhetoric about crackdowns on illegal voting, what’s most striking about voter fraud prosecutions is how modest the penalties for convictions tend to be.Most fraud cases fall into one of four categories: falsely filling out absentee ballots, usually to vote in the name of a relative; voting twice, usually in two states; votes cast illegally by felons; or votes cast by noncitizens.Edward Snodgrass, a trustee in Porter Township, Ohio, said he was trying to “execute a dying man’s wishes” when he filled out and mailed in his deceased father’s ballot in the 2020 election. He was fined $800 and sentenced to three days in jail.Charles Eugene Cartier, 81, of Madison, N.H. and Attleboro, Mass., pleaded guilty in New Hampshire to voting in more than one state, a Class B felony, in the 2016 election. He was fined $1,000 plus a penalty assessment of $240, and had his 60-day prison sentence suspended on condition of good behavior.At least four Oregonians cast votes in two states in 2016; none were fined more than $1,000, and felony charges were reduced to violations, akin to traffic tickets.Two federal prosecutors in North Carolina, Matthew G.T. Martin and Robert J. Higdon, made national headlines in 2018 with a campaign to prosecute noncitizens who voted illegally. In the end, around 30 charges were brought, out of some 4.7 million votes cast in 2016. But prison sentences in those cases were few, and usually measured in months; fines, usually in the hundreds of dollars or less.Still, there are exceptions, often apparently meant to send a message in states where politicians have tried to elevate fraud to a major issue.Foremost is Texas, where convictions that would merit probation or fines elsewhere have drawn crushing prison sentences. Rosa Maria Ortega, a green-card holder who cast illegal votes in 2012 and 2014, was sentenced to eight years in prison for a crime she says she unknowingly committed. Crystal Mason, who cast a ballot in 2016 while on federal probation for a tax felony, drew five years for violating felon voting laws. The court has been ordered to reconsider her case.Both prosecutions were the work of the state attorney general, Ken Paxton, perhaps the nation’s most zealous enforcer of voter-fraud laws. Mr. Paxton runs a $2.2 million-a-year election integrity squad that claims a 15-year record of prosecutions, though some of its high-profile cases, like a lengthy one against a South Texas mayor, ended in acquittals.Many of the squad’s cases have turned out to be decidedly small-bore affairs. Mr. Paxton’s integrity sleuths recorded 16 prosecutions in 2020, all of them Houston-area residents who put wrong addresses on registration applications, The Houston Chronicle has reported. None resulted in jail time. A handful of states have followed Texas’s lead. In Tennessee, Pamela Moses, a Black activist who violated a ban on voting by felons — mistakenly, she said — drew a six-year prison sentence in 2021. Prosecutors abandoned the charge after she won a new trial.In Florida, Kelvin Bolton, 56 and homeless, attended the same presentation that Mr. Conney did, and also voted in 2020. He has been awaiting trial in the Gainesville jail for five months, unable to make the $30,000 bond slapped on him by a county judge.“I said, ‘Kelvin, why did you vote?’” his sister, Derbra Bolton Owete, said in an interview. “And he said, ‘Well, they told me I could vote, so I voted.’ ”An amendment to the Florida Constitution that voters approved in 2018 restored voting rights to Mr. Bolton and other former felons who had completed their sentences. But the Republican legislature passed a law requiring full payment of fines and court fees to complete a sentence. The state has no central record of what former felons owe, adding another hurdle to their efforts to regain voting rights.Because Mr. Bolton owes fines or court costs, he faces felony charges of perjury and casting illegal votes.People of means usually fare better.In Kansas, a Republican member of the House of Representatives, Steve Watkins, railed during his 2020 re-election campaign against a “corrupt” prosecutor after Mr. Watkins was charged with illegally misstating his residence for voting and with lying to law enforcement officers, both felonies. Mr. Watkins later quietly accepted a diversion plea, escaping a criminal record in return for paying court costs and hewing to requirements like staying out of legal trouble. (Mr. Watkins lost his re-election bid.)Steve Watkins, a Kansas state legislator, faced felony voting fraud charges in 2020 and lost his bid for re-election. He spoke at a rally in Topeka with President Donald Trump in 2018.Scott Olson/Getty ImagesIn North Carolina, prosecutors have yet to decide after six months of scrutiny the seemingly straightforward question of whether Mark Meadows, the former chief of staff to President Donald J. Trump and a former North Carolina congressman, essentially did the same thing.Mr. Meadows stated on a 2020 voter registration form that his residence for voting purposes was a mobile home in the western part of the state, although there is no public evidence that he ever actually lived there. A few prosecutions have approached the sort of broader allegations of fraud that are common in political messaging, though all were local affairs.A convoluted tale of election shenanigans in the Canton, Miss., city government produced charges against at least nine people in 2019, though punishment was minimal, and one woman was cleared. An absentee-ballot scheme that forced a rerun of the 2018 Ninth Congressional District race in North Carolina led to seven fraud indictments. The alleged ringleader, Leslie McCrae Dowless, a Republican operative, died before he could stand trial.In Florida, where attacks on voter fraud have been a staple of Mr. DeSantis’s term as governor, prosecutors have adjudicated at least 25 voting law cases since 2017. Until recently, penalties have been mild — probation, small fines, jail time served concurrent with other sentences.The 20 cases of voting by felons announced last month nearly double that total. But those prosecutions appear endangered, because the state itself approved the felons’ applications to vote and even issued them registration cards. The Republican who sponsored the state law requiring felons to pay court costs, State Senator Jeff Brandes, told The Miami Herald that he believed those who were charged had no intent to break the law.Asked about that, a spokesman for Mr. DeSantis noted that the governor said that local election officials vet registration applications, not the state. That contradicts what his own former secretary of state, Laurel Lee, told journalists in 2020, The Herald reported.“When people sign up” to vote, “they check a box saying they’re eligible,” Mr. DeSantis said at a news conference last week. “If they’re not eligible and they’re lying, then they can be held accountable.”Critics of Mr. DeSantis say his goal is less to stop fraud than to make political hay from Republican voters’ obsession with the subject, something the party has relentlessly stoked for years.“This is political grandstanding,” said Daniel Smith, an expert on elections and voting at the University of Florida. “Individuals are registering, being told they can vote, handed registration cards and then told they’ve committed a felony. It’s tragic.”Sometimes the focus on voter fraud can become self-fulfilling.An Iowa woman, Terri Lynn Rote, said she cast two ballots for Mr. Trump in 2016 because she believed her first vote would be switched to favor Hillary Clinton. “I wasn’t planning on doing it twice — it was spur of the moment,” she later told The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. “The polls are rigged.”A judge fined her $750 and sentenced her to two years’ probation.Kitty Bennett, Isabella Grullón Paz and Heather Bushman contributed research. More

Blackpool contains one of the most deprived areas to turn to the Conservatives in Britain’s last general election. But with costs rising, there are already signs of cracks in that support.BLACKPOOL, England — The famed annual light show still illuminates the sky each night in the seaside town of Blackpool in England’s northwest, having survived the nationwide effort to conserve energy. But beneath the glitter, the evidence of decades of decline is everywhere.The signs on the small hotels that line long stretches of the coastline have faded, and “vacancy” notices flash in their front windows. Shuttered storefronts‌ dot‌ the roads in the center of town. The doorways of defunct nightclubs are crowded with those sleeping rough.Liz Truss, who took over as Britain’s prime minister on Tuesday, will have no shortage of issues to address in a country facing grave economic crises. On Thursday, Ms. Truss is set to announce a plan to limit the sharp rise in energy costs.But the most daunting challenges will come in towns like Blackpool, already one of the most deprived in England, according to government statistics.Blackpool South, where the popular Pleasure Beach amusement park stands, long supported the Labour Party but switched to backing the Conservative Party in the 2019 election that brought Boris Johnson to power. It was one of the poorest areas of England to switch parties.But with costs for nearly everything rising, and worries that energy bills could skyrocket to thousands of pounds a year for the average household, there are already indications of cracks in the Conservative coalition.Liz Truss after winning the Conservative Party leadership in London on Monday. She has promised relief for struggling towns like Blackpool.Frank Augstein/Associated Press“I do not think that having Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak would have made any difference to the economy of Blackpool,” said Ava Makepeace, a resident, referring to Ms. Truss’s opponent in the leadership race that ended this week in her victory.Ms. Makepeace, 51, was critical of Conservative policies, and said that Brexit, which Blackpool overwhelmingly favored in a 2016 referendum, had also had a negative effect on the town.“No one can get decent staff anymore,” she said of the restaurants and hotels that had relied on overseas workers. “And poverty in certain areas of central Blackpool are the worst they have ever been.”The Fall of Boris Johnson, ExplainedCard 1 of 5The Fall of Boris Johnson, ExplainedTurmoil at Downing Street. More

NEWNAN, Ga. — Georgia Democrats have grown increasingly pessimistic about Stacey Abrams’s chances of ousting Gov. Brian Kemp from office, pointing to her struggles to rally key parts of her party’s coalition and her inability to appeal to a slice of moderate Republican voters who can decide the state’s elections.Public and private polls have consistently shown her trailing Mr. Kemp, a Republican seeking a second term. And, in a particularly worrying sign for Ms. Abrams, polls also show she is drawing less support than the other high-profile Democrat on the ballot, Senator Raphael Warnock, who is seeking a first full term.The gap between the two Democrats, which is within the margin of error in some recent surveys and as wide as 10 points in others, highlights the extent of her struggles. Though she is beloved by Democratic voters, she has lost some ground with Black men, who provided crucial backing in her narrow loss to Mr. Kemp in 2018. And while Mr. Warnock draws some support from Republican moderates, Ms. Abrams — who has been vilified more by the G.O.P. than any other statewide figure — has shown little sign of peeling off significant numbers of disaffected Republicans.Ms. Abrams’s standing — consistently trailing Mr. Kemp in polls by around five percentage points — has alarmed Democrats who have celebrated her as the master strategist behind Georgia’s Democratic shift.For years, she worked to register and turn out Democratic voters, narrowly losing her first bid for governor in 2018 and helping fuel President Biden’s victory in 2020. Now, her struggles have some Georgia Democrats wondering if the Abrams model — seeking to expand the universe of voters to fit her politics — is truly better than trying to capture 50 percent of the voters who exist now.“Right now, people are concerned — kind of looking sideways,” said Erick Allen, a Democratic state representative, who said he hoped enthusiasm would pick up in the fall sprint. “There’s a lot of energy around the Warnock campaign. I’m not sure if the same energy that we had four years ago is around the Abrams campaign yet.”In an interview last week, Ms. Abrams defended her strategy, noting that her Democratic turnout operation helped carry the state for Mr. Biden, Mr. Warnock and Senator Jon Ossoff in the 2020 election cycle. “I imagine an electorate that is possible, not the electorate as if the election was held today,” she said.She and her top aides believe her standing is improving, buoyed by voter anger over the Supreme Court decision overturning the federal right to an abortion. She is planning a broader campaign to highlight Mr. Kemp’s signing of a 2019 law — which went into effect in July — that bans abortion in Georgia after the sixth week of pregnancy.Ms. Abrams’s allies said the comparisons between her and Mr. Warnock overlooked stark differences. Ms. Abrams is a Black woman contending with sexist stereotypes about leadership, they note. She is also running against an incumbent governor with a well-built political apparatus, while Mr. Warnock’s rival, the former football star Herschel Walker, is a political novice. (Both Mr. Kemp and Mr. Walker’s campaigns declined to comment.)“We have to work harder as women, as African American women,” said former Mayor Shirley Franklin of Atlanta, who added that women “just have a harder time capturing the imagination as executives.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries winding down, both parties are starting to shift their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Battleground Pennsylvania: Few states feature as many high-stakes, competitive races as Pennsylvania, which has emerged as the nation’s center of political gravity.The Dobbs Decision’s Effect: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women signing up to vote has surged in some states and the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage are hard to see.How a G.O.P. Haul Vanished: Last year, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans was smashing fund-raising records. Now, most of the money is gone.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to former President Donald J. Trump or to adjust their stances on abortion.The Abrams and Warnock campaigns have pursued different strategies. Mr. Warnock is betting on winning over just enough moderate, white Republican voters to get himself past Mr. Walker. Ms. Abrams needs a big turnout from base Democrats and new voters to oust Mr. Kemp.Last week, Mr. Warnock demurred when asked by The New York Times during a news conference if he would campaign with Ms. Abrams, delivering the sort of practiced non-answer Democrats have been reciting when asked if they would welcome help from an unpopular President Biden.“The pundits want to know who I’m campaigning for and who I’m campaigning with,” Mr. Warnock said. “I’m focused on my campaign.”The next morning, Ms. Abrams announced she would join Mr. Warnock for a campaign stop that very afternoon.“We need Stacey Abrams,” Mr. Warnock told supporters at the event, calling her “a visionary leader” and “my dear friend.”Senator Raphael Warnock at a barbershop in Newnan, Ga. Polls suggest Mr. Warnock is ahead in his race, while Ms. Abrams is struggling to keep pace.Erik S Lesser/EPA, via ShutterstockDemocrats have largely kept quiet on their concerns about Ms. Abrams’s campaign. But several county elected officials and community leaders in Georgia have privately expressed their worries to the campaign directly, according to interviews with more than two dozen Democratic officials who asked not to be named discussing private conversations. They have complained that the campaign was slow to reach out to key constituencies and underestimated Mr. Kemp’s strength in an already difficult year for Democratic candidates.Ms. Abrams has in recent weeks focused attention on winning support from Black men, voters who have inched toward Republicans during the Trump era. More

Ross Douthat, a Times Opinion columnist, hosted an online conversation with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, and the conservative writer and radio host Erick Erickson, to discuss whether Republicans are blowing the fall campaign — or whether a red wave is still possible.Ross Douthat: Kristen, Erick, thanks so much for joining me. Let’s start with the big picture. From early 2022 through the middle of the summer, Republicans consistently led the generic ballot for Congress, by around two and a half points. Today, the same generic ballot is either tied or gives Democrats a slight edge. Kristen, what changed?Kristen Soltis Anderson: The biggest thing that I’ve seen shift is enthusiasm on the Democratic side. During the winter and spring, Republicans had an advantage when voters were asked how motivated they were to vote. Key parts of the Democratic coalition were just not as tuned in or interested in participating.That’s a relatively normal dynamic in a midterm year, but the last two or three months have seen Democrats close that enthusiasm gap.Erick Erickson: I underappreciated how much the Dobbs decision would play a role in that.But the RealClearPolitics polling averages go back about two decades. For midterm elections where Republicans have done well, at this time of year, the polling has narrowed. Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics had a good piece on it last week. I actually told my radio listeners that we should expect a tying of the generic ballot in August, and here it is. I would wait to really assess the direction of the race until late September.Douthat: If we assume Dobbs has boosted Democratic enthusiasm, Kristen, how heavily should we weight that effect relative to, say, falling gas prices?Anderson: The Dobbs decision was the big turning point. It has been less about changing voters’ minds from Republican to Democratic and more about activating voters who might have been tuned out and less engaged. It has also given Democrats a message to run on that changes the topic from inflation and gas prices. I still see the economy as a huge driver of this midterm, which is why I still think at this point Republicans are in an OK position. But there’s a reason Democratic candidates have been running ads about abortion.Douthat: Erick, you just said you might have underestimated the Dobbs effect. Do you think G.O.P. politicians were actually prepared to have abortion back in democratic debate?Erickson: I have been more than a bit perplexed at the G.O.P.’s surprise over the Dobbs decision, considering it leaked weeks before it was official. They had time to prepare for it and find some common ground and never seemed to get on the same page. By not being prepared, they allowed more aggressive voices on the issue to spook voters. When you have loud voices in the G.O.P. start talking about making abortion a criminal offense after Dobbs, that tends to spook people.Still, I do continue to think the economy is going to be disproportionately at play in the election. As Kristen said, more Democrats will turn out than otherwise would have pre-Dobbs, but the G.O.P. should be OK if the party focuses on the economy and inflation.Douthat: Well, unless inflation continues to diminish, right? It seems like Republicans have pushed a lot of chips onto that issue. Do you both think the G.O.P. needs a highly inflationary economy or a potential recession to win Congress this fall?Anderson: I’m certainly not rooting for a bad economy. But there is typically a link between people’s perceptions of the economy and their willingness to stick with the party in power. It is worth noting that inflation and rising gas prices were an issue where even Democrats were expressing concerns before Dobbs. Republicans rightly saw it as an issue on which their party had two key things going for them: Independents thought it was a top issue, and voters trusted Republicans more on it.Erickson: We are not going to see deflation, so reduced inflation is still inflation.Anderson: It’s also worth noting that even though the chatter in Washington seems to be that inflation is fading fast as an issue for voters, I’m not necessarily buying that that’s the case.Erickson: Yeah, as a dad who does a lot of the grocery shopping and cooking, milk and meat are still expensive, even if not as expensive as they were a few months ago, and wage increases for Americans have not offset the costs of many consumer goods.Douthat: Have Republicans focused too much on the economy at the expense of other issues that might have worked for them — crime, immigration, even education?Anderson: Crime and immigration are areas where Republicans have an advantage with voters, but those issues just haven’t been as salient with them.Erickson: Republicans have a comprehensive story to tell about the deterioration of the quality of life in America.Douthat: Let’s talk about the candidates who are trying to tell that story. Erick, you’re in Georgia, where Herschel Walker is the G.O.P. nominee for Senate and not exactly impressing on the campaign trail. Popular Republican governors in swing states passed up Senate races, presumably because they didn’t want to deal with the demands of Trumpism, and now you’ve got G.O.P. candidates trailing in the polls everywhere from Arizona to Pennsylvania to Wisconsin.How bad is the candidate problem, and can a Walker or a Dr. Oz still win?Erickson: I’ll take the last part first. The G.O.P. has managed to nominate some clunkers of candidates. But yes, Republicans can still win. This is actually why I am a bit hesitant now to embrace the national narrative of this election.Walker is a flawed candidate, but the national narrative has the race worse than it actually is. Walker has actually been ahead in some recent polls. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair recently mentioned races he expected to do well in, and Georgia was not on the list. On the ground in Georgia, Walker has retooled his campaign, brought in new people, and the crowds are growing as his air war likely intensifies.Oz and Blake Masters are not great. But the political environment can get some of these flawed candidates elected. Remember, in 1980, a bunch of Republicans got elected as “accidental” senators; they were swept into office by Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory and because the national mood was so dour. Also, it is worth noting that in 2020, the G.O.P. exceeded expectations, and pollsters still do not have good answers for why they missed that. We could be experiencing part of that again.Douthat: Let me pitch that point to you, Kristen: Not only Republicans but a lot of liberals are very hesitant to trust polls showing big Democratic advantages in Senate races, especially in Midwestern states, given the record Erick mentions. How doubtful should we be about polling in this cycle?Anderson: I’m far from a poll truther or unskewer or what have you. But I am keenly aware of the ways in which public polling can miss the mark. And it is notable that in some of the last few election cycles, we’ve had public polls that told a very rosy story about Democratic Senate candidates that did not pan out and lost to incumbent Republicans. Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins, anyone? I’m also thinking of 2018, where states like Indiana and Missouri were considered tossup or close races in a blue-wave year and yet Republicans won.At the same time, those 2018 examples show that it is possible for candidates to outperform expectations even in the face of a wave that is supposed to be crashing the other direction.Douthat: Do you think the polling industry has substantially adjusted since 2020? Are the polls we’re seeing of, say, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin more trustworthy than past polling, in your view?Anderson: I’ll use a recent example to highlight my concerns. In Florida we just had a big primary election, and one of the major polls that got released before the primary showed in the governor’s race, the more progressive candidate, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, ahead of the more centrist Democrat and former Republican, Charlie Crist. The poll was very transparent in its methodology, but the underlying data had a large number of college-educated voters. Even if you do the appropriate things with data weighting, that underlying data is skewing quite progressive. Crist actually defeated Fried by a wide margin.I don’t say this to criticize those pollsters, as they were transparent about their data, but if Democrats are extra fired up to vote right now, there’s a chance they’re also extra fired up to take polls.Douthat: But we do have a few actual results, from the abortion referendum in Kansas to the recent special election in New York, where liberal causes and Democratic candidates have done well in real voting, not just in polls.How much do you read into those kinds of election results?Anderson: The Kansas result was a wake-up call for Republicans. It showed Democrats making real strides in speaking to voters in the center about abortion using language those voters might use and tapping into values those centrist voters might hold. But I’m reluctant to say that special election results are transferable to other races in other states on other issues.Erickson: I’m doubtful we can really extrapolate Kansas to the rest of the nation.Douthat: Erick, let’s talk about Donald Trump, because the other big change from the summer is that the former president is back in the headlines. Assuming, as seems likely, that the classified-documents scandal is somewhat frozen from here till Election Day, how long a shadow does Trump cast over the midterms?Erickson: Democrats have said for some time they wanted Trump to be an aspect of their 2022 argument. He, of course, wants to be part of it as well. Republicans have been terrible about taking the bait and talking about Trump. To the extent the G.O.P. is willing to ignore their reflexive “stand by your man” impulse and instead focus on the economy, education, crime, etc., they can move past his shadow quickly.I’m just not optimistic Republicans can do that, given their prior behavior on the matter.Douthat: And Kristen, as Erick says, from the Democratic side and especially the Biden White House, there seems to be a clear desire to make the midterms about Trumpism. That didn’t work particularly well for Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor’s race last year. Is it a better strategy now?Anderson: In a midterm, the party out of power always wants it to be a referendum, while the party in power wants it to be a choice.The problem with Trump becoming more in the news is that it helps Democrats try to make it a choice. It gives them a prominent foil. But simply saying, “Don’t vote for candidate X because of Trump” isn’t foolproof.Douthat: If a bunch of Trump-picked candidates lose their Senate or governor races, does it weaken him for 2024 at all?Erickson: I have resigned myself to Trump’s core supporters insisting the G.O.P. establishment undermined those candidates in order to stop Trump and the only way to chart a better course is to double down on Trump. They will blame Mitch McConnell and others before Trump gets blame.Anderson: It is notable that when my firm asked Republican voters if they thought Trump was helping or hurting Republican candidates in the midterms, 61 percent said he was helping, and only 27 percent said hurting. This was from a survey we did in August.Even among Republicans who don’t think of themselves as “Trump first,” putting him before their party, a majority view him as helping. Granted, some of this may be Republican respondents circling the wagons in response to the question. But I doubt a poor showing in the midterms will lead to blaming Trump.Erickson: If Democrats really do want Trump to go away, they should just ignore him. Before the F.B.I. going to Mar-a-Lago, Republicans were doing their slow walk away from Trump. I somewhat suspect Democrats really want to keep Trump’s position in the G.O.P. elevated because independent voters just do not seem to care for the guy, and that gives Democrats an edge while making a 2024 Republican primary messy.The bigger issue for Trump is major donor support. Those people will see a need to move on. Trump will be less able to rely on larger dollar donors to build out 2024 than he did in 2020, though he won’t need them as much, since he can raise a lot from small-dollar donors. If they, however, consolidated behind someone else, it could cause problems for Trump.Douthat: OK, time to ask for predictions. Out of the competitive Senate races where G.O.P. candidates are seen as struggling or the race is just close — let’s say Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, because I think J.D. Vance will win Ohio — which ones do you think are the most likely G.O.P. wins, and which the most likely Democratic victories?Erickson: The G.O.P. takes Georgia. The Democrats take Pennsylvania and hold Arizona. The G.O.P. takes Nevada. I continue to think Ron Johnson wins his re-election in Wisconsin, too. I agree on Vance and think the national narrative there is out of sync with Ohio voters, who’ve moved more Republican.Anderson: I have the same choices as Erick: Republicans taking Georgia and Democrats taking Pennsylvania. That’s not to say I think those are rock solid, and the Pennsylvania race is just strange in general.Douthat: And if the economy worsens and the possibility of a red wave returns, what could be the most unexpected G.O.P. pickup?Anderson: I keep hearing buzz around this Washington Senate race. Republicans are very happy with their candidate there, Tiffany Smiley, who is a former triage nurse. A female candidate with a health care background could be powerful in this cycle.Erickson: I would keep my eye on the Colorado Senate race and the Oregon gubernatorial race. Also, New Hampshire remains in play, though the G.O.P. needs to settle on a candidate.Douthat: Final predictions — give me House and Senate numbers for Republicans.Erickson: I’m going with 51 in the Senate and 235 in the House.Anderson: I’ll say 230 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate. But I would also like to note that we are two months away.Douthat: Your sensible humility is duly noted, Kristen. Thanks to you both for a terrific discussion.Ross Douthat is a Times columnist. Kristen Soltis Anderson, the author of “The Selfie Vote,” is a Republican pollster and a co-founder of the polling firm Echelon Insights. Erick Erickson, the host of the “Erick Erickson Show,” writes the newsletter Confessions of a Political Junkie.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More