UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailMore than a hundred seats across the UK could be ripe for tactical voting at the general election, according to a new analysis by The Independent.Based on a major poll from YouGov, published on Monday, almost half of the Conservatives’ projected wins come with a margin under 5 points. The Tories themselves may have an eye on 50 seats Labour and the Liberal Democrats are projected to win, if they can persuade Reform UK voters to back them.YouGov’s MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll suggested Labour were on course to win 422 seats on 4 July – a majority of 194. The Tories would win just 140, followed by the Lib Dems (48), the SNP (17), Plaid Cymru (2) and the Green Party (2).‘Tactical voting’ is a term used when a voter makes a choice on the ballot based on who is more likely to defeat a candidate to whom they object, rather than choosing the one they actively support. Close counts would make tactical voting a bigger factor.While some tactical voting websites have used the 2019 general election results to identify constituencies with the tightest margin, the Independent has looked at YouGov’s projections, which combine polling with constituency-level characteristics such as demographics, past vote choice, and current candidates.The Independent’s wider analysis has identified seats where a lead of under 10 per cent is projected for the winning party. Of the Tories’ 140 projected wins, 68 show a margin lead over either Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP of under 5 per cent. Tactical decisions by left-wing voters in these constituencies could make the difference.Dr Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at Trinity College, Oxford, said: “Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens all like each other’s parties reasonably enough to consider voting tactically for each other.“The seats that are most likely to be affected by tactical voting in substantial numbers are for the Lib Dems. I do think they’re hoping to pick up a lot of tactical votes from Labour supporters in their target seats, and Labour are not going to dissuade people from voting tactically. You had a lot of coordination between those two parties in the by-elections.”Polling expert Mark Pack is president of the Lib Dems, who have put their resources into targeting winnable seats. “I think that the thing that matters at this stage for all parties is to concentrate on maximising the number of seats you get,” he said.“And the more you get, the better you end up after polling day. It’s the intensive effort in the target seats that really makes a difference one way or another.”Luke Tryl, director of think tank More In Common, said voters are more clued in than ever on tactical voting.“The ‘time for change’ mood is so strong,” he said. “70% of voters say it’s time for change, versus 30% who say ‘stick with the plan’. More people will be inclined to vote tactically to get that change,” Mr Tryl told The Independent.He added: “What we’ve been seeing in by-elections is that voters have been very savvy about knowing who is best placed to defeat the Conservatives. So we’ve seen seats where the Lib Dems were the clear challengers, and Labour’s vote was squeezed, or vice versa.”While the Conservatives could be vulnerable to tactical voting, around 50 of YouGov’s projected wins for Labour and Lib Dems are also within the 5-point margin.Dr Fisher said: “In the vast majority of seats they’re defending, [the Tories] need the Reform vote to come back to the Conservatives. “You already do have the Conservatives arguing that a vote for anyone other than Conservatives is a vote for Keir Starmer. That was clearly targeted at anyone thinking of voting for Reform.”However, the Tories may struggle to attract Reform voters. A YouGov poll in May found that 43 per cent of intended Reform voters are not at all likely to vote Conservative.Tactical voting websites and resources have a unique role in modern elections, according to Mr Pack, because “broadly speaking, in a democracy, the more information voters have, the better informed voter outcomes will be”.He said: “There’s quite a big educational challenge to make sure that people know about tactical voting. It will be quite interesting to see how tactical voting [resources] play out, because they will potentially have quite an important role to play. “We’ve not really seen that opportunity in an election previously – where there’s such a strong anti-government mood.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAngela Rayner has accused the Conservatives of smearing a Labour general election candidate who parachuted into Normandy to raise money for the Royal British Legion.Tory councillor Daniel Nelson is under fire after mocking Labour’s Southend East and Rochford candidate Bayo Alaba for being out of the country on the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Follow our politics live blog for all the latest general election updatesIn a provocative post on X, Mr Nelson said he had been on “fantastic door knocking sessions” in the constituency. He said it was great to be with Tory candidate Gavin Haran “in the constituency talking to residents”.Angela Rayner accused the Tories of ‘smearing’ the Labour candidate More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tory candidate to replace Michael Gove has boasted about moving into a home in the constituency, only for it emerge the property was seemingly an AirBnb.Councillor Ed McGuinness, who is running to be the Conservative MP for Surrey Heath, said he is “now a resident of St Paul’s ward”.Alongside pictures of himself entering a house, Mr McGuinness said Surrey Heath residents “rightly expect their MP to be a part of their community”.Follow our politics live blog for all the latest general election updatesBlaming Mr Gove’s last minute decision to step down when the snap summer general election was called, Mr McGuinness said it has been “hard to get a place so quickly”.But users on social media platform X quickly posted pictures of an AirBnB listing that appeared to show the same house.The property is described on the rental site as “a light and airy self contained annex”.One said it was “a bit weird to do a ‘getting the keys’ shot for an AirBnb’”.A community note on X said: “The property featured here appears on AirBnb and is therefore not indicative of the user being a ‘resident’ of the local community.“Moreover the availability of the property does not indicate a long-term booking has been made.”At the time of Mr McGuinness’s post about the home, it still appeared to be available to book on several days in July.Ed McGuinness hopes to succeed Michael Gove, who is not standing in Surrey Heath at the General Election More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters across the European Union are going to the polls on the final day of voting for the European parliamentary elections to choose their representatives for the next five-year term.Polls opened in 20 EU countries early Sunday for the June 6-9 elections for a new European Parliament, the legislative branch of the 27-member bloc.Hundreds of millions of Europeans have been casting their ballots this week in one of the biggest global democratic events.Far-right parties are looking to gain more power amid a rise in the cost of living and farmers’ discontent, while the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are also key topics weighing on the minds of voters.The economy, jobs, poverty and social exclusion, public health, climate change and the future of Europe are also prominent issues. Official results are not expected before the last polling stations in all 27 EU nations close late Sunday.Currently:— An assault on the Danish prime minister is the latest in a recent spate of political violence in Europe— Italy’s hard-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni tells the EU’s traditional center parties their time is up— What’s at stake: AP’s explainer on how it works and the main issues— Overwhelmed by the elections? A guide to the key races to watchHere’s the latest: POLAND VOTES WITH WAR IN UKRAINE AND MIGRATION ISSUES IN FOCUS WARSAW, Poland — Poles are voting at a time of great insecurity for the nation, which is located along the eastern flank of both the European Union and NATO.The war just across the border in Ukraine has created fears that if Russia were to prevail, Poland and neighboring nations that were once under Moscow’s control could be targeted next.A migration crisis is also playing out along another stretch of the eastern border with Belarus. Poland accuses Belarus and Russia of luring large numbers of migrants to the border to create instability. The crisis has been deadly, with a migrant recently stabbing to death a Polish soldier. Dozens of migrants, if not more, have also died in the swampy forest area since 2021.Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stressed national security, promising to strengthen border controls as he seeks a good showing for his centrist, pro-EU party.On the minds of some Poles is the nature of the EU itself. In a nation under foreign rule for long spans in the past, some Poles fear that the 27-member bloc is taking away too much power from individual nations.“We know that the European Union is in crisis, so maybe our elections will change something in the decision-making and efficiency of this body,” said Anna Grzegorczyk-Łuczak, a 60-year-old architect who voted early in Warsaw. She would not say which party she voted for. BULGARIANS CAST BALLOTS FOR NEW PARLIAMENT AND IN EU ELECTIONS SOFIA, Bulgaria — Bulgarians are choosing a new parliament Sunday while also participating in European Union elections that have been overshadowed by domestic political instability and economic inequality as well as growing concern over the war in nearby Ukraine.It was Bulgaria’s sixth parliamentary election in three years. There were worries that voter fatigue and wide disillusionment with politicians who do not fulfill promises to fight corruption and introduce reforms could result in a low turnout and another fragmented parliament.Preliminary results are expected Monday in the voting for the 240 seats in the National Assembly and for 17 members in the European Parliament.The front-runners in the National Assembly elections were seen as the GERB center-right party led by three-time Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the reformist coalition We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria. After running neck and neck in last July’s election, the two rival groups sought to break the political stalemate by forming an uneasy governing coalition, but it survived only nine months. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak’s decision to skip a D-Day memorial has been openly criticised by a second cabinet minister before he then cancelled a press event as the row engulfing the prime minister over the blunder deepened.Mr Sunak is said to be “despondent” over the backlash to him missing the international ceremony attended by other world leaders, including US president Joe Biden and French president Emmanuel Macron, to mark the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings.The prime minister did not take media questions on Saturday’s campaign trail after his awkward exchange with broadcasters the previous day. A scheduled opportunity for reporters to quiz him did not take place as was originally planned, with the Conservatives calling off the “huddle” citing time constraints, as Mr Sunak toured County Durham and Yorkshire.Rishi Sunak is claimed to be despondent over the furious backlash to his missing the international ceremony attended by other world leaders to mark the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings More