UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The U.K. general election on July 4 is just days away now, no doubt to the relief of the party leaders who have crisscrossed the country in a grueling month of campaigning.This campaign doesn’t seem to have shifted the political dial much, if at all, with the left-of-center Labour Party still the clear favorite to defeat the Conservatives of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and return to power for the first time in 14 years.If the polls are broadly accurate — and even the Tories have acknowledged their likely defeat — then Labour leader Keir Starmer will at some point on July 5 be driven to meet King Charles III at Buckingham Palace in order to get the go-ahead to form a government. The Conservatives’ campaign, already lacklustre, was beset this week by growing claims about election betting. Betting slips The investigation into widespread betting on the date and outcome of the general election by figures connected with Sunak is still rumbling on.For general elections in the U.K., there’s a market to predict the date of the vote. Unlike most other democracies, that decision rests solely in the hands of the prime minister. In the United States, for example, everyone knows that the presidential and congressional elections will take place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.People close to Sunak within the Conservative Party ranks and even police officers connected with his protection have been caught up in the inquiry.Reports suggest the total number of parliamentary candidates and officials could be 15. The Gambling Commission, the industry’s regulator, hasn’t confirmed the numbers involved. But it has said it has made “rapid progress” and will continue to work closely with London’s Metropolitan Police force, which is also investigating the actions of seven of its officers.Whatever the number, it’s a tawdry affair and has highlighted a culture of betting at Parliament. And not just on the date.Starmer suspended a Labour candidate this week too — for betting against himself in the coming election. Really the best? There were more debates again. Luckily, it’s fair to say, there are no more.When the U.K. finally had its first debate between leaders in the 2010 general election, there was the novelty factor. This year, it’s often felt like there’s been a debate every other day — for soccer fans, there’s at least been the European Championship from Germany to provide alternative viewing, however disappointing England and Scotland have been. The latest, and the last, debate aired on the BBC on Wednesday evening, and both Sunak and Starmer repeated the things that they’ve been saying for weeks. A Labour government, according to Sunak, will lead to higher taxes, while Starmer said now was the time for change.Perhaps the biggest round of applause came from neither of them. That was reserved for audience member Robert Blackstock.“Are you two really the best we’ve got to be the next prime minister of our great country?” he asked. Economic luck Whoever is prime minister come next Friday, it’s clear that’s the economic backdrop won’t be the easiest, given the dual impact of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.But many experts have said that the two main parties haven’t been entirely truthful in their manifestos about the challenges to come. “Regardless of who takes office following the general election, they will — unless they get lucky — soon face a stark choice,” said Paul Johnson, director of the well respected Institute for Fiscal Studies. “Raise taxes by more than they have told us in their manifesto. Or implement cuts to some areas of spending. Or borrow more and be content for debt to rise for longer.”Luck is probably the most undervalued political commodity, and that’s why many Conservatives were clearly against Sunak’s decision to call an early election — he could’ve waited until January.And there are signs that the economy is improving, though not being felt by the voters after years of duress. Official figures showed that the U.K. economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year from the previous three-month period — more than most leading economies.Had Sunak waited, it is argued, voters may have started to feel better about their situation — to the potential benefit of the Tories. Persistent polls A few hours after the polls close at 10 p.m. local time on Thursday, the overall result of the election will be known.In fact, the first constituency results will likely be known before the clock strikes midnight. It’s a race that many constituencies take seriously. Blyth and Ashington is expected to be the first to announce its result at around 11:30 p.m., closely followed by nearby Houghton and Sunderland South.But it’s a race and there will be bragging rights between the neighbors.Whoever wins that race, Labour remains favorite to win the most seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. While major pollsters give varying figures, all show a double-digit Labour lead, with relatively little change since Sunak called the election in the rain on May 22.Starmer is about 40 to 1 odds on to become prime minister. That’s not much of a bet — one would need to put on 40 pounds to get one pound in return! More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA Reform UK activist filmed making a racial slur about prime minister Rishi Sunak claims he cannot be racist as “he has had Muslim girlfriends”.Andrew Parker was recorded by a Channel 4 undercover reporter saying army recruits should use migrants arriving by small boats in Kent as “target practice”, and labelling Islam a “disgusting cult” in widely condemned comments. Referring to Mr Sunak, who is of Indian descent, he said: “I’ve always been a Tory voter. But what annoys me is that f****** p*** we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F****** useless.”Speaking on Friday, Mr Parker claimed he had made the comments in “the heat of the moment” because he was being “goaded on” and said they were “off-the-cuff”.“Of course I regret what I said,” he added. “Christ, I’m not a racist. I’ve had Muslim girlfriends. It was typical chaps-down-the-pub talk.”Andrew Parker’s racist comments were exposed by a Channel 4 News operation More

Labour set up a faux “Rishi’s Mega Mortgages” shopfront on the campaign trail in south London on Friday 28 June.The tagline on the bright blue signage, which includes pictures of prime minister Rishi Sunak’s floating head with a wheeler-dealer style glinting tooth, reads in bright yellow: “Every deal will leave you worse off!”The number “£4,800” was also featured in the biggest font, emblazoned across the front, with one window for each digit.“Here’s my deal of the day. Your mortgage up £4,800”, the shopfront reads underneath.The signage also said “Rishi’s latest raw deals” and “you should be grateful”. More

Nigel Farage said a Reform UK campaigner who made homophobic remarks did so because he’d “watched England play football” and “was drunk.”An undercover Channel 4 reporter’s recording in Clacton showed a canvasser describing the Pride flag as “degenerate” and suggesting members of the LGBT community are paedophiles.“People when they’re drunk often turn quite nasty. It was unforgivably nasty,” the party leader told Loose Women panellists on Friday, 28 June.The Channel 4 footage also captured campaigners using a racial slur and suggesting migrants should be used as “target practice”.Mr Farage has sought to distance himself from the comments, saying he was “dismayed” by the “appalling sentiments” expressed. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has revealed his hurt and anger after his daughters were exposed to their father being called a p*** by a Reform UK canvasser.Andrew Parker was caught using the racial slur while canvassing in Clacton, Essex, where Nigel Farage is standing as an MP in the general election.Mr Parker, who was filmed as part of an undercover investigation by Channel 4 News, said: “I’ve always been a Tory voter. But what annoys me is that f****** p*** we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F****** useless”.On a campaign visit to a school in Teesside, the prime minister told broadcasters: “My two daughters have to see and hear Reform people who campaign to Nigel Farage calling me an effing p***. It hurts and it makes me angry, and I think he has some questions to answer.Andrew Parker More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVeterans minister Johnny Mercer has said this will be his final election campaign due to the abuse his family have suffered – including a recent incident in which a man told his daughter: “Your dad’s a c***.”The Conservative candidate for Plymouth Moor View is the latest politician to open up about abuse and threatening behaviour, revealing it has left him feeling drained despite his love for the job. The 42-year-old won the seat from Labour in 2015, and has grown his majority to almost 13,000 over two subsequent elections.After three tours in Afghanistan, Mr Mercer said he entered politics to speak up for armed service veterans and the city he described as the “Jewel of the South West”. And despite an “up and down” time in government – he was relieved of his job twice as Veterans Minister before his latest stint under Rishi Sunak – Mr Mercer was “incredibly proud” of what he’d achieved.But he said abuse directed at him and his family has gone too far, and that if he wins his seat for a fourth successive term, it will be his last.Johnny Mercer speaking to a Conservative voter in Ernesettle in Plymouth during canvassing on Thursday More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJeremy Corbyn has accused Sir Keir Starmer of ‘not being honest’ when the current party leader said he knew that Labour would lose the 2019 general election.In an awkward exchange on the Sky News election debate earlier this month, Sir Keir was pressed by Beth Rigby about ditching his left wing policies once becoming leader of Labour. Asked whether he had meant it when he said his predecessor would make a great prime minister, Sir Keir replied: “I was certain we would lose the 2019 election. We were not ready. I was certain we would lose it.”He added: “I did campaign for Labour, of course I did. I will openly say I campaigned for Labour. I wanted good colleagues to be returned into the Labour Party, and I wanted a party that was capable of being changed so we can face the future again.”Then Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn (right) alongside shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer during a press conference in central London in 2019 Jonathan Brady/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA leading pollster has warned that defeat for the Tories in the general election next week is now unavoidable and the only question remaining is how much Rishi Sunak’s party loses by.The assessment by Techne UK’s chief executive Michela Morizzo – Italy’s equivalent of Professor Sir John Curtice – comes as her company’s tracker poll for The Independent shows that Labour goo into the final seven-day stretch with a 22 point lead over the Tories.Labour are on 41 per cent (down one) with the Tories languishing on 19 per cent for a third week in a row and Reform UK just two points behind still on 17 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent and Greens on 5 per cent meaning that the five main parties almost completely unchanged from last week.It means that the final onslaught unleashed by Rishi Sunak in the head-to-head debate on Wednesday attacking Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on tax and immigration had almost no impact,, the same as most of his tactics throughout a problematic campaign.Instead, the Tories continue to be dogged by their own self inflicted wounds particularly the gambling scandal and before that Mr Sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations early.Ms Morizzo now believes that there is nothing he can do to turn things around in such a small space of time.She told The Independent: “With less than one full week before the British electorate go to the general election ballot boxes our regular tracker poll of Westminster voting intentions confirms what we have known now for sometime. There continues to be no closing of any gap between Labour and Conservatives continuing at a 22 per cent Labour lead. “If this wasn’t bad enough though for the Conservatives the steady rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK throughout the campaign to its position now 17 percent points of national vote – a rise of four to five polling points across the last four weeks will further squeeze and damage the Conservatives already faltering chances. Rishi Sunak has been mentioned in barely 1% of the Conservatives’ online adverts (Phil Noble/PA) More