UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe winner of the next general election will have to raise taxes to maintain the current provision for public services, according to new analysis by a leading think tank.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) added that there is “essentially no fiscal headroom for any further tax cuts” amid slow economic growth and easing inflation.The UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent in 2023 after pressure from higher interest rates and hikes by ratesetters at the Bank of England to slow rampant inflation.In its latest economic outlook report, NIESR said it forecasts GDP (gross domestic product) will have grown 0.4 per cent over the first quarter of 2024 and will rise 0.8 per cent for the year as a whole, compared with 2023.Nevertheless, it said this still represents an “anaemic UK GDP growth trend”.It comes a week after the UK’s economic growth prospects were downgraded for the next two years by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), adding that it is on track for the weakest growth of the G7 group of countries next year.Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at NIESR, said: “Despite the welcome fall in inflation, UK growth remains anaemic.“This will make it difficult for any incoming government to carry out the much-needed investment in infrastructure and the green transition, as well as increase spending on public services and defence, without either raising taxes or rewriting the fiscal rules.“This makes clear the need to reform the fiscal framework to enable the government to do what is needed for the economy in a fiscally sustainable way.”It is currently widely expected that the next UK general election will take place in the second half of 2024, with the Labour Party shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves saying earlier this week that they plan to fight the next election on the state of the economy.NIESR also said in the report that it predicts there will next be an interest rate cut, from the current level of 5.25 per cent, in August. It has factored in two cuts this year.The forecasts also indicated that average living standards are due to improve by around 6 per cent in 2024/25 compared with the previous year, but stressed this picture varies significantly between the income distribution.The poorest tenth of households will experience a 2 per cent decline in disposable income, while households in deciles four to nine will see a 7 per cent-8 per cent improvement.Adrian Pabst, NIESR deputy director for public policy, said: “While real wages are rising, households in the bottom half of the income distribution continue to feel the impact from the cost-of-living crisis, with housing costs wiping out the benefits from higher real wages.“Similarly, the freezing of the personal allowance and tax bands is making low and middle-income households worse off despite the cut to National Insurance Contributions.“Despite some efforts, regional inequalities are persistent and, in some cases, getting worse.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA former UK national security adviser has criticised Rishi Sunak for failing to suspend arms sales to Israel after the US paused a shipment of bombs overnight. Crossbench peer Peter Ricketts said it was unfortunate that Britain had not taken a stand, adding that it should have been “ahead of the US” on the decision. The prime minister is facing mounting pressure, including from within his own party, to immediately suspend arms to Israel amid a growing outcry at the number of Palestinian civilians killed in its war on Hamas.The Biden administration halted the munitions shipment as concerns grew about Israel’s plan to launch a full-scale assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. More than a million civilians are sheltering in the area after they were forced to leave other parts of the strip. A senior official in the US – a huge contributor of military aid to Israel – said a final decision had not yet been taken on whether the shipment of 1,800 2,000lb bombs and 1,700 500lb bombs would go ahead as planned. Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on buildings near the separating wall between Egypt and Rafah More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak was rocked by another day of drama in parliament as Tory MP Natalie Elphicke ambushed him at the start of Prime Minister’s Questions by crossing the floor to Labour.The shock move by a previously hard-right Conservative was kept secret to the last second by Sir Keir Starmer’s inner circle, but left MPs on both sides of the House stunned.Ms Elphicke’s decision came on a day when the prime minister had hoped to re-galvanise his party back into a fighting machine with the first of two briefings on the local elections.But with scores of Tory MPs boycotting the event, it emerged later that a group is in discussions to get the 52 letters needed to trigger a vote of confidence in Mr Sunak. Plotters are understood to have set a deadline of Wednesday next week (15 May) to get the necessary letters in.The prime minister and senior party figures avoided any direct mention of Ms Elphicke at the No 10 briefing, but her defection to Labour also left many in opposition questioning why Sir Keir had accepted her.Natalie Elphicke’s defection to Labour left many of her new colleagues on the opposition benches asking questions More

Natalie Elphicke appeared to join in with protesters’ chants as she attended a demonstration against P&O Ferries’ decision to sack 800 seafarers, resurfaced footage from March 2022 shows.The video was re-posted on social media after the MP for Dover defected from the Tories to Labour, heavily criticising the prime minister and her former party.Footage showed Ms Elphicke being heckled by union members outside Maritime House in the Kent town, with other protesters shouting “You voted for fire and rehire,” and “Shame on you.”Elaborating on her decision to defect, Ms Elphicke hit out at the “broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSuspended Labour MP Kate Osamor has had the party whip restored four months after a controversial Holocaust Memorial Day post suggesting the Israeli action in Gaza is genocide. Ms Osamor, a shadow minister under Jeremy Corbyn, subsequently apologised and instead referred to a “humanitarian disaster”. But she was placed under investigation over the post, which also likened Israel’s war in the beseiged enclave to genocides in Cambodia, Rwanda and Bosnia.Labour confirmed Ms Osamor had been given the whip following “a full investigation”. For her part she said she wanted to “unreservedly apologise again for my comments. I made remarks which were insensitive, inappropriate, and which I apologise for and regret.” The Independent revealed late last month that Ms Osamor would be given the Labour whip again within days. But the decision has been condemned by the Jewish Labour Movement, one of the oldest socialist societies affiliated to the Labour Party. A JLM spokesperson said: “Kate Osamor’s original actions and non-apology were disgraceful and smeared the memory of all those who died in the Holocaust and subsequent genocides in Cambodia, Darfur, Rwanda and Bosnia, as commemorated by the Holocaust Memorial Day Trust.” He added that the onus was “now on her to engage with her local Jewish community… and the wider community, properly. Given her previous record and comments in this area, this will require a sincere and honest approach. Until and unless this happens, the jury is still out.”Edmonton MP Kate Osamor has had the Labour whip reinstated (Richard Townshend/UK Parliament/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNatalie Elphicke’s defection to Labour has raised concerns among some in Kier Starmer’s party who condemned her defence of her former husband who was imprisoned after being charged with sexual assault.After Charlie Elphicke was found guilty of three counts of sexual assault against two women, the MP for Dover said he had been punished for being “attractive” and being “attracted to women”.Ms Elphicke, who defected to the Labour Party on Wednesday, was temporarily suspended from the Commons in 2021 for trying to influence his trial and was forced to apologise.Charlotte Cornell, a Labour councillor who ran against Ms Elphicke in Dover in 2019, told The Independent: “Her comments minimised what was predatory behaviour and sexual abuse. “It is one of the reasons I find today really hard to understand. I know there will be women in the local area who are incredibly upset by today’s decision.”Ms Cornell, who is a cabinet member on Canterbury City Council, accused Ms Elphicke of “gaslighting other women during and around“ the time of the trial of her former husband.She added: “She has held fervent anti-union positions. She has mocked Marcus Rashford and anti-child poverty initiatives.”Ms Elphicke criticised Mr Rashford for missing a penalty in the Euro 2020 final, saying he should be “perfecting his game” rather than “playing politics” after he campaigned against child food poverty.Ms Cornell argued there are “huge questions“ surrounding the political views which Ms Elphicke holds.Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with former Tory MP Natalie Elphicke in his parliamentary office (Stefan Rousseau/PA) More

Sir Keir Starmer declined to comment on Natalie Elphicke’s past remarks about Charlie Elphicke’s conviction for sexually assaulting two women.Her then-husband, the former MP for Dover, was jailed for two years in 2020.In an interview with The Sun, Ms Elphicke defended him, saying he was “attractive, and attracted to, women” and that that made him “an easy target for dirty politics and false allegations”, claiming he was the victim of a “terrible miscarriage of justice”.When pressed on Ms Elphicke’s remarks on Wednesday, 8 May, the Labour leader declined to comment and said: “I’m delighted to welcome Natalie Elphicke to the Labour party.”She’s got a strong track record on issues such as housing.” More

Starmer Welcomes Natalie Elphicke After Labour MP Deflects From ConservativesSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTory MP Natalie Elphicke has defected to Labour, hitting out at the “broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic Government”.The Dover MP crossed the floor in the Commons just moments before Prime Minister’s Questions.She said in a statement: “I have carefully considered this decision. The change has been dramatic and cannot be ignored.”For me key deciding factors have been housing and the safety and security of our borders.”In a humiliating blow for Rishi, Ms Elphickle has joined Dr Dan Poulter and Christian Wakeford in crossing to the Labour side. In the first face-to-face since last week’s local election results, Sir Keir Starmer hit out at the Conservatives for losing nearly 500 council seats in last week’s elections.The heated exchange saw the Labour leader call the PM a “dodgy salesman” as he pushed him on small boat crossings.Show latest update 1715180141Kate Osamor gets Labour whip back The MP for Edmonton was suspended after posting a message on Holocaust Memorial Day referring to other genocides.After a huge wave of criticism, she tweeted an apology “for any offense caused” by her references.The Labour party has now readmitted Osamor with the condition she engages with the local Jewish community.A spokesperson said: “Kate Osamor’s original actions and non-apology were disgraceful and smeared the memory of all those who died in the Holocaust and subsequent genocides in Cambodia, Darfur, Rwanda and Bosnia, as commemorated by the Holocaust Memorial Day Trust. It is right that, as we understand,  she has received a formal written warning from the Labour Party. “The onus is now on her to engage with her local Jewish community in Enfield and the wider community, properly. Given her previous record and comments in this area, this will require a sincere and honest approach. Until and unless this happens, the jury is still out.”Salma Ouaguira8 May 2024 15:551715179272Tory minister sorry for e-gate airport chaos MP Tom Pursglove has apologised to passengers for Tuesday’s glitch that saw long queues and delays across UK airports.He said the incident was caused by “technical issues within the Home Office network” after a cyber attack was ruled out. Mr Pursglove said: “The relevant teams quickly swung into action, and a technical response was underway within six minutes. Once the fault was identified, officials worked closely with partners to rectify the problem and restore service. “At this stage, I can assure the House and the wider public that all security checks were maintained throughout. Border security was not compromised at any point and there is no indication of malicious cyber activity. Police access to operational systems was unaffected.“I sincerely apologise for the disruption that occurred. I can assure the House that the Home Secretary and I will be unswerving in our determination to ensure that every possible lesson is learned, to ensure that this does not happen again.”Heathrow travellers cheer after e-passport gates reopen following nationwide outageSalma Ouaguira8 May 2024 15:411715177978Labour ‘safe heaven’ for Tories National Executive Committee member for Labour Mish Rahman has slammed the party for accepting Natalie Elphicke. He questioned the former Tory member’s stand on Rwanda and said it is a “new low” for Starmer. Salma Ouaguira8 May 2024 15:191715177163Labour backlash over Natalie Elphicke’s defection Natalie Elphicke has caused a stir after crossing the floor to take a seat alongside Keir Starmer during today’s fiery PMQs. But not everyone has welcomed the former Conservative MP for Dover and Deal with open arms. Frustrated Labour supporters took to social media to vent out their disappointment. Salma Ouaguira8 May 2024 15:061715176908Audio of Reeves saying Elphicke can ‘f**k off’ resurfaces after defectionAn audio clip of Rachel Reeves appearing to say Natalie Elphicke can “f**k off” for criticising Marcus Rashford after he missed a penalty for England has resurfaced after the Dover MP defected to Labour.Ms Elphicke had criticised England footballer and social campaigner Marcus Rashford in 2020 after his crucial penalty miss at the Euro 2020 final, messaging colleagues: “They lost – would it be ungenerous to say Rashford should have spent more time perfecting his game and less time playing politics.”In the audio clip, Ms Reeves can be heard paraphrasing Ms Elphicke’s comments before saying she could “f**k off”.Matt Mathers8 May 2024 15:011715176215Watch: Sunak tells Starmer he can be ‘as cocky as he likes’ after Tory election defeats More