UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPeter Mandelson has poured cold water on Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of a 1997-style election landslide, warning Labour’s poll lead is “artificial” and “is going to contract”.The grandee, one of the architects of New Labour, said people “are not pricing in sufficiently” the possibility of Sir Keir failing to win a majority.He added that if Labour fails to maintain its current momentum, it is on course for “a somewhat more ambivalent result than than the opinion polls are currently suggesting”.Lord Mandelson’s comments come as his party holds a 20-point poll lead over Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, with an election expected this autumn.Lord Mandelson poured cold water on Labour’s hopes of a landslide election win But the former spin doctor to the party said Labour’s current lead is “artificial”.And, speaking on his How to Win An Election podcast, Lord Mandelson added: “Believe me, it’s going to contract. And if you consider the swing that is required by Labour to get an overall majority, at the election it is something like 11 or 12, per cent, this is huge.”He dismissed the likelihood of Labour forming a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, but said that if voters are “unsure” about Labour the Liberal Democrats would “come into play”.“What you might find this year is if Labour falls back from its current lead, if Labour fails to maintain its present momentum and political appeal, you may find the Liberal Democrats doing better than expected,” he said.In that case “the result is somewhat more ambivalent”, he added.Lord Mandelson was known as the prince of darkness during his time as Labour’s director of communications from 1985 to 1990. He went on to serve as the Labour MP for Hartlepool from 1992 to 2004 and was elevated to the Lords in 2008.His comments come days after a major poll predicted Labour is on track for a 1997-style general election landslide.The YouGov survey said the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.And, in an upset that would be reminiscent of the notorious Portillo moment when then cabinet minister Michael Portillo lost his safe Tory seat, the poll suggested chancellor Jeremy Hunt could lose his seat.Other ministers under threat include education secretary Gillian Keegan and defence secretary Grant Shapps.It was one of a series of polls showing the Conservatives facing an election nightmare, with a survey last week showing Labour an incredible 34 points ahead of Rishi Sunak’s party in 150 key marginal seats it needs to win. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist has advised the U.K. government to avoid further tax cuts amid expectations Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s battered administration will do just that to win over voters in an election year.Instead of reducing taxes, the government should ensure it is prepared to meet increasing demands for spending on the National Health Service, social care and education as Britain faces sluggish economic growth and the lingering effects of high inflation, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters after the IMF released its latest outlook for the world economy.U.K. Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt is widely expected to cut taxes in the coming months as part of an effort to boost support for his Conservative Party, which trails badly in most opinion polls. The next general election must be held by Jan. 28, 2025, and is expected to take place this year.But Gourinchas said cutting taxes would be a mistake. Britain needs to make sure its finances are strong enough to accommodate increased spending demands without increasing debt as a proportion of economic output, he said.“In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now,” Gourinchas said.His comments came after the IMF downgraded its outlook for the U.K. economy, forecasting growth of 0.6% this year and 1.6% in 2025. In October, the IMF forecast that the U.K.’s gross domestic product would grow 2% in 2025.Hunt is focusing on longer-term projections, noting that the IMF expects growth to strengthen over the next few years.“It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth,” he said.Concerns about responsible fiscal policies are especially sensitive for Sunak and Hunt as they came to power after their predecessors were widely criticized for announcing millions of pounds in tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.Former Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign after less than two months in office when concern about her policies sent the pound tumbling to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar and forced the Bank of England to intervene in bond markets to protect pension funds. More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightNo 10 has said the agreement struck with the DUP to change post-Brexit checks for Northern Ireland will not need Rishi Sunak to re-open his Windsor Framework deal with the EU.DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has claimed the new agreement – which has won the backing of his unionist party – will involve “substantive” changes to trade arrangements.Sir Jeffrey insisted it would remove all post-Brexit checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from Great Britain under a deal to restore power-sharing at Stormont.As well as claiming “zero checks, zero customs paperwork” on goods moving over the Irish Sea, the DUP chief also said Northern Ireland would no longer automatically have to follow EU laws.Mr Sunak’s Northern Ireland’s secretary Chris Heaton-Harris said the changes were “significant” – but refused to be drawn on the details, and made clear they would not need any approval by the EU.Mr Heaton-Harris said he would set out the full agreement with the DUP on Wednesday – and revealed that more than £3bn would be spent in Northern Ireland if the parties get back to Stormont.The DUP, Sinn Fein and other Northern Ireland parties are due to meet later on Tuesday to discuss the next steps to get the executive back up and running after the unionists two-year blockade.Sir Jeffrey Donaldson sets out DUP backing for new post-Brexit deal Mr Sunak and EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen agree a new post-Brexit deal in February 2023 – the Windsor Framework – aimed at reducing checks on Irish Sea trade.No 10 declined to confirm DUP leader Sir Jeffrey’s claim the new deal would result in “zero checks, zero customs paperwork” on goods moving within the UK.But Mr Sunak’s official spokesman said it would not affect the PM’s Windsor Framework agreement with Brussels. “It will not change the powers and freedoms we agreed … in the Windsor Framework.”Mr Heaton-Harris – asked if the Windsor deal would now have to be renegotiated – told broadcasters: “I don’t believe so.”The Northern Ireland secretary said there were “some significant changes” and the new agreement had achieved “a vast array of decent improvements to make sure our internal market works properly”.It is understood the Sunak government will introduce two statutory instruments at Westminster on Wednesday so parliament can sanction the DUP agreement – with possible changes to the Internal Market Act, rather the Windsor deal with the EU.Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris speaks to media about DUP deal on Tuesday EU chiefs warned against any changes to the Windsor deal. Asked about the new agreement with the DUP, a European Commission spokesperson said officials in Brussels would “examine those texts when the time comes”.They added: “We’ve said before, we expect the UK government to fulfil its obligations under the [Windsor] framework, as it has been doing.”Sir Jeffrey expressed hope that the Stormont institutions could be back up within days after he secured the backing of his party executive for proposals on Monday night.The DUP leader told BBC Radio Ulster that the “new arrangements remove those restrictions” set out in the Northern Ireland Protocol, part of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.“Zero checks, zero customs paperwork on goods moving within the United Kingdom,” Sir Jeffrey claimed. “That takes away the border within the UK between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and that is something that’s very important.”Sir Jeffrey announced his support for a Stormont return at post-1am press conference. He said there was “decisive” backing from the 130-strong party executive after a five-hour meeting on Monday night.Sinn Fein representatives MLA Conor Murphy, president Mary Lou McDonald and vice-president Michelle O’NeillBut support for the deal is not unanimous within the DUP – as several senior figures remain fiercely opposed to the proposed agreement to restore powersharing.Around 50 loyalist and unionist protesters assembled outside Monday night’s meeting, many carrying posters and banners warning against a DUP “sellout”. Some shouted at DUP members as they drove into the grounds of the venue.DUP efforts to keep details of Monday’s executive meeting secret were seriously undermined when Jamie Bryson, a loyalist activist and vocal opponent of the government deal, posted on X, formerly Twitter. The posts that included details of apparent attempts to find out who was leaking the information to Mr Bryson.Sinn Fein would be in line to take the first minister’s job in any restored ministerial executive in Belfast. Vice-president Michelle O’Neill will take on that role.Party president Mary Lou McDonald said she was optimistic Stormont could return before the next legislative deadline for forming an administration, next Thursday – 8 February.Mr Heaton-Harris said he hoped all the parties would agree to the changes. “I believe that all the conditions are now in place for the [Northern Ireland] assembly to return.”The return of Stormont will also see the Treasury release a £3.3bn package to support under-pressure public services in Northern Ireland. The financial package includes money to settle the demands of striking public sector workers in the region this year. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailForeign secretary David Cameron has sparked a backlash from Tory MPs after he suggested Britain could bring forward formal UK recognition of a Palestinian state.The former PM has said such a move could help to make a two-state solution – currently stalled, with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu firmly opposed – an “irreversible” process.Lord Cameron – speaking ahead of his latest visit to the Middle East – spelled out how the UK and its allies could add to pressure on Israel by considering recognising a Palestinian state at the United Nations.Palestinian ambassador to the UK Husam Zomlot pounced on his words as “significant” – but senior Conservatives warned Rishi Sunak’s foreign secretary not to push too far or too fast.Ex-Tory cabinet minister Theresa Villiers said bringing forward the recognition of a Palestinian state would “reward Hamas’ atrocities” after the 7 October terror attack.Fellow senior Tory Sir Michael Ellis said the move could risk equipping “dangerous actors” with the “trimmings and capabilities of a state”.And Stephen Crabb, another ex-cabinet minister, dsaid the gesture may be “noble”, but questioned what “talk about early recognition” of Palestinian statehood would achieve.Foreign secretary Lord David Cameron faces a backlashLord Cameron told a London reception there was a need to give the Palestinian people “a political horizon” to end the Israeli-Hamas war as he addressed a reception for Arab ambassadors in parliament.The foreign secretary suggested that Britain and others could formally recognise a Palestinian state during peace negotiations – rather than wait for a final peace deal with Israel.“We should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like – what it would comprise, how it would work,” he said on Monday night.“As that happens, we, with allies, will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. This could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible,” Lord Cameron said.The foreign secretary last week pushed Mr Netanyahu to re-consider talks aimed at a two-state solution to bring about peace for both Israeli and Palestinian people.Mr Netanyahu has rebuffed the push from western allies, including the US – saying the plan would “endanger the state of Israel”. The Israeli PM also criticised what he described as an “attempt to coerce us”.On Tuesday Mr Netanyahu ruled out an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza or the release of thousands of militants – both key Hamas demands in ongoing ceasefire talks. The Israeli leader once again vowed that the war will not end without “absolute victory” over Hamas, in remarks to reporters.Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected two-state solution Both No 10 and junior Foreign Office minister Andrew Mitchell responded to Lord Cameron’s remarks on Tuesday by insisting that there has been “no change” in UK policy. Mr Sunak’s spokesman said recognition of a Palestinian state will take place “at a time it best serves the cause of peace”.However, Labour welcomed Lord Cameron’s suggestion. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy told MPs: “As Keir Starmer has said, statehood is not the gift of a neighbour – it is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people.”Mr Lammy added: “I welcome the foreign secretary adopting this position and rejecting the notion that recognition can only follow the conclusion of negotiations.”But as Tory MPs shared their concerns in the Commons on Tuesday, Ms Villiers said it was “really disturbing” that Lord Cameron appeared to have “changed the UK government’s approach on recognition of a Palestinian state”.“Will the minister agree with me that bringing forward and accelerating unilateral recognition of Palestinian state would be to reward Hamas’ atrocities?” she asked.Mr Mitchell replied: “There is no question of rewarding Hamas for the appalling acts they perpetrated in a pogrom on October 7.”“But the point the foreign secretary has been making is that we must give the people of the West Bank and Gaza a credible route to a Palestine state and a new future, but we must do so when the time is right.”Sir Michael also warned that “unilateral recognition of Palestinian state now” risked “equipping those dangerous actors … with the trimmings and capabilities of a state”.David Cameron has pushed Benjamin Netanyahu to consider two-state solution The Palestinian ambassador to the UK described Lord Cameron’s words as a “significant” moment – and even referred to “the Cameron Declaration” in a social media statement.Mr Zomlot said: “It is the first time a UK foreign secretary considers recognising the state of Palestine, bilaterally and in the UN, as a contribution to a peaceful solution rather than an outcome.”He said: “If implemented, the Cameron Declaration would remove Israel’s veto power over Palestinian statehood, would boost efforts toward a two-state outcome.”Lord Cameron, whose latest trip starts in Oman, is expected to say Britain will do “everything it can” to prevent the conflict from “spilling over borders” during a visit to the Middle East.In Oman, the foreign secretary is expected to meet his Omani counterpart, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, to discuss de-escalating rising tensions across the region.An attack by Iran-backed militia in Jordan over the weekend that killed three US troops and left dozens injured has stoked fresh fears of a Western confrontation with Tehran.Meanwhile, Lord Cameron is preparing to make his first major speech since returning to government in the coming weeks, according to the i.He is expected to warn the world is now more dangerous than at any time since the Cold War and say world leaders were too complacent about the long-term dominance following the fall of the Soviet Union. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Jeremy Hunt that he cannot afford to cut taxes in his March Budget.The financial agency said any tax cuts would be “very challenging to achieve” considering Britain’s ageing population and mounting debt pile. It said funding the transition to net zero and protecting the UK’s public services would need higher spending in the medium term than current government plans.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has vowed to cut taxes at his March Budget (Daniel Leal/PA)“It is in this context that staff advise against further tax cuts,” an IMF spokesman said.But as the report came out at lunchtime, Mr Hunt said he would still consider planned tax cuts on March 6. His plans expose the split between the government and the IMF, with Mr Hunt and the Treasury arguing in favour of tax cuts to fuel growth, and the international body claiming strong public services were needed to boost the economy.The chancellor said “smart tax reductions” would help grow Britain’s ailing economy. He said it is “too early to know whether further tax reductions will be affordable, but said “we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth”.Despite squeezed public finances, Mr Hunt has vowed a giveaway in March, claiming the government’s “careful management of the economy” means he can “start cutting taxes again”. His hopes were boosted last week as official figures showed government that borrowing was lower than expected. The chancellor and Rishi Sunak want to lower taxes to draw a dividing line with Labour, arguing that Sir Keir Starmer would raise taxes if he wins the keys to Downing Street.It is widely thought that the chancellor will opt for either a further cut to national insurance or lower the basic rate of income tax.IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier-Gourinchas said: “There is a need to put in place medium-term fiscal plans that will accommodate a very significant increase in spending pressures.“In the case of the UK, you might think of spending on healthcare and modernising the NHS; spending on social care; on education; you might think about critical public investment to address the climate transition; but also to boost growth.”So, it’s very important to have in place medium-term fiscal plans that accommodate these pressures at the same time ensuring that debt dynamics remain stable and contained.”That requires a combination of tax and spending measures to make sure that you can allocate the resources where they need to be allocated, but at the same time preventing your debt levels from increasing.”In that context we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now.”Labour said the IMF warning was “yet more evidence of 14 years of Conservative economic failure”.Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “The Tories have left Britain with high debt, flatlining growth, high taxes and working people worse off.”And the Liberal Democrats said the “damning” IMF verdict showed the government’s “failure on the economy”.Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative Government is a disaster for our economy and needs to leave Downing Street before even more damage is done.”It came as the IMF said Britain’s economy will grow slower than expected over the next two years and will be among the worst performers in the G7 group of advanced economies. The body’s economists expect UK growth to hit 0.6 per cent this year, and 1.6 per cent next.It would make the economy the second-worst performer in the G7 this year and the joint third-worst performer in 2025.The IMF’s forecast for this year is unchanged since its past report in October, but has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points for next year. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has insisted he is “absolutely confident” ahead of the 2024 general election, despite being 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer in the polls.The prime minister told ITV’s This Morning that he was ready for the contest and said Britain has “turned a corner”.Mr Sunak’s assertion comes amid warnings from major pollsters that he faces a 1997-style election wipeout, and despite several relaunches of his leadership failing to make a dent in Labour’s poll lead.Rishi Sunak laughed when asked if he is going to win this year’s general election“We have clearly been through a tough time over the last year as a country,” Mr Sunak said.He added: “We are still dealing with the legacy of Covid, backlogs in the NHS, the war in Ukraine driving energy bills, but I really believe that at the start of this year we have turned a corner and are heading in the right direction.”Asked by presenters Rylan Clark and Rochelle Humes if he is “confident” about the general election, Mr Sunak said: “I am, absolutely.”He said “the plan we have put in place is working”, pointing to the reduction in inflation as evidence.And he added: “By tomorrow, everyone will have had a tax cut by the way because of our management of the economy. If you are earning £35,000 you are going to get a tax cut worth £450.“That is what we are starting to deliver, if we stick with this plan I will be able to give everyone that peace of mind that there is a brighter future for them and their children.”But despite optimism about this year’s contest, Mr Sunak played down the prospect of a longer stint in Downing Street.“With the best will in the world, I am probably not going to be here in 13 or 14 years,” Mr Sunak said.His comments came weeks after a major YouGov survey predicted the Tories are on track for a 1997-style general election wipeout.According to the poll, the Tories could retain as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.Alarmingly for the Tories, it said chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats, in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.Other ministers under threat include education secretary Gillian Keegan and defence secretary Grant Shapps.As well as trailing Labour in the polls, the Tories are facing an assault on the right from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.The party, formerly called the Brexit Party, risks splitting the vote in tens of Tory seats, opening the door to Labour and adding to the scale of Mr Sunak’s losses. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWatch as Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, speaks to the press on Tuesday 30 January after a deal was struck between the DUP and British government.A deal to restore Stormont powersharing will remove all post-Brexit checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, the leader of the DUP has insisted.Sir Jeffrey Donaldson expressed hope that the Stormont institutions could be back up within days after he secured the backing of his party executive for government proposals aimed at addressing the DUP’s concerns over Brexit’s so-called Irish Sea border.The parties eligible to participate in a revived ministerial executive are due to meet later on Tuesday to discuss the next steps.Sir Jeffrey conceded that his party had not got everything it wanted in the negotiations with the UK government, but he said the deal provided the basis for the DUP to drop its two-year blockade on devolution in Belfast. More

Angela Rayner said she would “do everything I possibly could” to stop what’s happening in the Middle East, as she explained why she abstained from a ceasefire vote in November 2023.Labour’s deputy leader said her party wants to see Hamas release Israeli hostages taken on 7 October and that Labour are “pushing” for more humanitarian aid to get into Gaza.“Realistically what we are trying to do is bring about a ceasefire. Bring about the release of those hostages and bring about a two-state solution for that area,” Ms Rayner said.“I would give everything to make that happen.” More