UK Politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAll Nicola Sturgeon’s pandemic WhatsApp messages have been deleted, the Covid Inquiry has heard.At a hearing in Edinburgh, the official investigation into the crisis was told that the former first minister of Scotland, had “retained no messages whatsoever”. Jamie Dawson KC, counsel to the inquiry, made reference to a document provided by the Scottish Government about what WhatsApp messages it could provide, and said that all Ms Sturgeon’s messages had been deleted.He said: “Under the box ‘Nicola Sturgeon’, it says that messages were not retained, they were deleted in routine tidying up of inboxes or changes of phones, unable to retrieve messages. “What that tends to suggest is at the time that request was made Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister of Scotland, had retained no messages whatsoever in connection with her management of the pandemic.”Lesley Fraser, the director general corporate of the Scottish government, agreed saying: “That’s what that indicates to me.”Ms Sturgeon had repeatedly refused to reveal whether she deleted messages.A spokesman for the ex-SNP leader said on Thursday: “In the interests of everyone who has been impacted by the Covid pandemic, Nicola is committed to full transparency to both the UK and Scottish Covid inquiries.“Any messages she had, she handled and dealt with in line with the Scottish Government’s policies. Nicola has provided a number of written statements to the UK inquiry – totalling hundreds of pages – and welcomes the opportunity to give oral evidence to the inquiry again this month when she will answer all questions put to her.”The Covid inquiry is currently carrying out three weeks of hearings focusing on decisions in Scotland during the pandemic, with Ms Sturgeon set to be the star witness. The inquiry has been told 28,000 messages from 85 WhatsApp groups had been handed over to Baroness Hallett and her team. Last month Rishi Sunak said he had no messages remaining from the pandemic period. The prime minister said he was not advised that he should save WhatsApp messages from his phone. Boris Johnson also told the inquiry he had been unable to retrieve his own WhatsApp messages for a crucial period at the beginning of the crisis, suggesting this was because his phone had been reset.Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross said: “Nicola Sturgeon and (her deputy) John Swinney have huge questions to answer over their conduct in the wake of this devastating revelation.“By deleting all their WhatsApp messages, they defied the inquiry’s clear instructions from June 2021 that all relevant messages had to be retained.“Their actions may be illegal and beg a very simple question: what were they trying to hide? Shamefully and outrageously for families of those who died during the pandemic, we may never know.“Nicola Sturgeon’s reputation, which has been tarnished by a series of scandals in the last year, now lies in tatters. Secrecy and evasion were the hallmarks of her government – and this shameful cover-up, which amounts to a digital torching of vital evidence, is the most scandalous example of it. “ More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has said there is “more to come” in terms of tax cuts as he prepares a pre-election bid to win votes.The prime minister is plotting a tax giveaway in his March Budget, which could be the last before voters head to the polls this autumn.With Britain’s tax burden at a post-war high, despite a national insurance giveaway in November, Mr Sunak has signalled he wants to make a fresh offer to voters.He said on Friday the 2p cut to the main rate of national insurance that came into force this month had been a “tax cut for 27 million people in work”.He added: “And we said that we do want to cut taxes for future events when we can responsibly do so.“Our priorities are very clear. It is controlling spending and welfare so that we can cut people’s taxes. The plan is working, because we are already doing it — stick with it and there is more to come.”Mr Sunak hopes a giveaway will help eat into Labour’s 18-point poll lead over the Tories.Rishi Sunak has said there is ‘more to come’ in terms of tax cuts Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has also fuelled speculation about further tax cuts on the horizon. Just weeks after the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that personal taxes are still going up despite the national insurance cut, Mr Hunt said lower taxes was the “direction of travel we would like to go in”.Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said: “I look around the world and I see that the parts of the world like the United States, like Asia, that are growing the fastest, have the most dynamic economies, tend to be places with lower taxes,” he told Sky News.“And that was why in the autumn statement, we decisively cut taxes.“So my priority in the budget will be growth, because if I can grow the economy, that will mean that then we have more money for the NHS, we can relieve the pressure on families, we can invest in our brilliant armed forces.”Speculation about tax cuts has been rife since November’s autumn statement, with Tory backbenchers clamouring for the government to ease the burden.Mr Hunt had been considering cutting inheritance tax ahead of that statement, and could revive the plan before March’s statement.Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt (PA)He may also opt for a personal tax cut such as lowering the rate of income tax.Labour has accused Mr Sunak and the chancellor of offering voters a “raw deal”, claiming the PM has given out £2 worth of tax cuts for every £10 taken through higher taxes. Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves described the tax cut as a “cynical giveaway”.And Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation think tank, said: “For many, particularly those earning less than £26,000, the [national insurance cut] will be offset by the tax rise that is effectively coming in April, when personal tax thresholds are frozen again.”While chancellor, Mr Sunak controversially froze the thresholds at which taxes come into effect, dragging more households into paying tax or even into higher tax brackets.Under current plans, the Resolution Foundation says anybody earning under £26,000 will be worse off, with the tax cut benefiting those earning £50,000 a year the most – to the tune of almost £500.The IFS said a worker earning the average salary of £35,000 would be £440 worse off by 2028.And overall, the tax burden is still on course to be the highest since the Second World War. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe closure of two blast furnaces at Britain’s biggest steelworks will lead to thousands of job losses and leave the UK reliant on foreign steel imports for years to come.In a fresh blow to Rishi Sunak, Tata Steel said it was cutting 2,800 jobs at its plant in Port Talbot in south Wales as it confirmed the closing of both blast furnaces at the site.Amid outrage at the scale of the job losses, the Indian-owned steel giant said it was “not feasible or affordable” to adopt a plan put forward by the GMB and Community unions to keep the furnaces open.It means that 2,500 workers will lose their jobs in the next 18 months, with another 300 to come. As well as having a devastating impact on the local community, the closures will leave Britain reliant on foreign steel imports, including from India and China.Labour said foreign powers “won’t always have Britain’s best interests at heart”, as the party condemned Rishi Sunak for failing to take up a “better” union-led plan to transition to greener production.A replacement so-called electric arc furnace, a greener way of making steel, will not come online until 2027 at the earliest. In the meantime, Britain will be forced to plug the gaps left by the Port Talbot closures with imports from abroad, which critics say will lead to higher emissions until the replacement comes online. Experts said the UK’s domestic emissions would be as much as 3 per cent lower because of the closures, but that this would be offset and could even be surpassed by an increase in Britain’s global carbon footprint once imports are accounted for.A steelworker wears a badge on his jacket outside the UK’s largest steelworks in Port TalbotRoz Bulleid, research director at the Green Alliance think tank, told The Independent: “Exactly what happens to the UK’s wider carbon footprint during the transition depends on where we get the steel from to replace British production. “Europe has a mixture of blast furnaces and lower-carbon production, while Asia has more blast-furnace production. But over time, we will see European emissions fall. This is a race to low-carbon steelmaking that the UK risks missing out on.”And, in a damning indictment of UK industry, the closures will also mean that Britain is the only G20 country that can’t make virgin primary steel. Virgin steel is used in everyday products such as tin cans. These will now have to be produced abroad, and it is unlikely that they will be manufactured in the UK again in future. The closures and job cuts come despite Tata being promised up to £500m by the UK government in a bid to keep the plant open and produce steel using more environmentally friendly methods.The Port Talbot plant is the largest steelworks in the UK and currently employs 4,000 of the company’s 8,000-strong UK workforce. The move means almost 75 per cent of workers will lose their jobs. The GMB union said the job losses are a “crushing blow to Port Talbot and UK manufacturing in general”.Charlotte Brumpton-Childs, national officer for steel, said: “It doesn’t have to be that way – unions provided a realistic, costed alternative that would rule out all compulsory redundancies.” But she said the plan has “fallen on deaf ears” and that steelworkers and their families will now suffer.Andrew Gutteridge, chair of the Multi Unions Llanwern works, said it would cause “absolute ruin” in the community, with unions estimating that each job at the steelworks creates another three in the wider economy.“Your local newsagents, your chip shops, your supermarkets – everything in this area will be affected,” he said. “This is a massive, massive kick for the whole of south Wales, really.”Tata Steel said it was ‘not feasible or affordable’ to adopt a union plan to keep the furnaces open Sir Keir said he was “very concerned” by the job losses at Tata Steel – urging Mr Sunak to listen to the “better plan” offered by unions to prevent so many redundancies.“The government said it had a plan for steel. It transpires the plan involves thousands of redundancies. There’s a better plan – a multi-union plan – that the government needs to look at again,” the Labour leader told broadcasters.Asked if he agreed that the government’s £500m investment had helped limit redundancies, Sir Keir said: “I’m not against the government investment … but their plan involves all of these redundancies when there’s a different and better plan on the table.” Under the so-called multi-union plan put forward by the GMB and Community unions, it was hoped that Tata Steel could transition Port Talbot towards greener steelmaking over a longer timeline.Had it been adopted, there would have been no compulsory redundancies, and Britain’s domestic steel supply would have been protected.In a joint statement, GMB and Community said they were “extremely disappointed” that Tata had rejected the alternative plans they presented. The unions met Tata representatives on Thursday in a last-ditch attempt to push the multi-union plan.Rishi Sunak insisted the government is ‘absolutely committed’ to British steelmaking The two unions lashed out at Unite, which also represents workers at the plant, for “undermining” the plan and for “unilaterally campaigning for discredited fantasy solutions”.And they took aim at Tata and the UK government, saying it was a “disgrace” that they appeared to be “intent on pursuing the cheapest instead of the best plan for our industry, our steelworkers and our country”.Mr Sunak said the government is “absolutely committed” to British steelmaking, adding: “I know first of all that it will be a worrying time for everyone affected.”He said the alternative was the entire plant being closed, leading to 8,000 job losses overall. “But the government worked with the company,” he said.Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford’s office condemned Mr Sunak after No 10 said he was “not available” for urgent talks requested about the potential loss of thousands of jobs.Labour’s shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has previously attacked the government over the funding package, saying: “Only the Tories could spend £500m of taxpayers’ money to make thousands of British workers redundant.”Stephen Kinnock said the job cuts will be ‘utterly devastating’ to the community in AberavonStephen Kinnock, the Labour MP for Aberavon, home of the Port Talbot steelworks, said the losses will be “utterly devastating” as he described the situation as “deeply frustrating and unnecessary”.He said: “Global demand for steel is actually growing, but by pursuing a narrow electric-arc-furnace-only model, Tata Steel will be unable to seize the commercial opportunities of the future, while at the same time leaving Britain more dependent on imported steel from countries whose governments won’t always have Britain’s best interests at heart.”Tata chief executive TV Narendran said the decision was “difficult” but “we believe it is the right one”. “We recognise this proposed restructuring would have a major impact on the individuals and communities concerned, whom we will support with dignity and respect,” he added.Mr Narendran told Times Radio that the steel giant had been “struggling to survive for the last 15 years”, adding: “Obviously all that we did was not enough.”He claimed that the union plan would have cost £800m more – £600m to keep one blast furnace running, while £200m would have gone on the cost of building the electric arc furnace. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Home Office has hired an aircraft hangar and a dummy plane for security officials to practise forcing asylum seekers onto flights to Rwanda, it has emerged.As the government prepares for deportation flights to take off, security guards have undergone special training programmes to deal with disruptive people.Migrants are to be escorted one by one from a detention facility on an airbase, The Times reported, before staff mimic scenarios the Home Office expects them to encounter when putting them onboard.The first Rwanda flight is expected to take off from the Ministry of Defence airfield at Boscombe Down near Salisbury, Wiltshire, where a flight in June 2022 was grounded Scenarios staff are practising for include migrants violently refusing to board planes, Extinction Rebellion-style “play dead” protests to block flights and even dirty protests by campaigners outside the airbase.The Home Office believes five officers will be needed for each migrant being deported, The Times said.The training is taking place in an aircraft hangar normally hired for use as a film studio by production firms.The Home Office told the paper it is vital in order to ensure escorts can respond “professionally to the challenges of removing people with no right to be in the UK”.A spokesman added: “This includes practical sessions so escorts have the skills they need to deal with different scenarios. As we ramp up removal activity we will continue to ensure new escorts have the training facilities necessary.”The training emerged as Rishi Sunak gears up for a battle with the House of Lords in a bid to get planes off the ground as soon as possible.Almost two years after the deportation plan was initially announced, Mr Sunak wants to rush through a bill he believes will finally see asylum seekers deported to the east African nation.The PM said on Thursday his controversial plan is an “urgent national priority” and told the upper chamber it is “now time to pass this bill”.The prime minister urged peers to ‘get on’ and pass his Rwanda bill But peers are expected to challenge the Safety of Rwanda bill, which rules the country a safe place to send asylum seekers – despite prior attempts to do so being blocked by the Supreme Court.In a sign of the depth of opposition the prime minister faces, leading lawyer and crossbench peer Alex Carlile denounced the bill as “a step towards totalitarianism”.Mr Sunak has refused to say when flights to Rwanda will finally take off, declining to commit to them beginning before the general election expected this autumn.But Downing Street has insisted the government is planning on a timeline for the first planes to be in the air this spring.Tory former minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said he thought it was “unlikely” deportations would take place before the election because of potential legal challenges. More

Emily Thornberry was grilled during a heated debate on Rwanda on Thursday night’s BBC Question Time (18 January).The Shadow Attorney General for England and Wales was challenged to spell out Labour’s alternative when it came to stopping migrant boats crossing over the English Channel.A frustrated audience member aimed his comments directly at Ms Thornberry and said: “I have to say, I’m not too sure but Emily’s very quick to criticise the plan.“But then what’s your plan? You know, there has to be a plan. We’re a small island. We haven’t got room for everyone.”Ms Thornberry hit back by branding Mr Sunak’s plan a “gimmick” and saying Labour would target human-trafficking gangs. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAccording to the latest YouGov public opinion poll the Tories are supported by a mere 20 per cent of voters. It comes as Rishi Sunak’s party descended into chaos this week, divided by his controversial Rwanda bill.Meanwhile, the Labour Party is enjoying a commanding lead of near-unprecedented proportions in recent times. With a general election looming over the UK, we wanted to hear your predictions for the dramatic months ahead in the political sphere.While some were ready to say goodbye to a Conservative Government and welcome Sir Keir Starmer to Downing Street, others were not convinced of the Labour leader.Here’s what you had to say:‘The polls are an absolute disaster for Labour’This seems to be rather strange and none of it makes sense.I can see glaring assumptions being made and herds of elephants are being ignored.The polls are an absolute disaster for Labour.The polls have been showing 20% plus leads for months.The sheer number of ‘Don’t knows’ and ‘will not vote’ , over and above the normal level renders any analysis of the polls meaningless. It looks the Tory voters have move from the ‘Conservative’ to the do not know column to try and oust Sunak. They may be holding out hope for a Priti Patel or another unhinged Libertarian to swiftly move in.In any case the Tories are both pragmatic and loyal. Even if they go into the election with the hared Sunak up top, they will troop into polling booths. They might not want Sunak, but they do want the Tories to stay in power.Labour have no idea what is going on. A 20 point lead without doing any thing at all appears so seductive and believable. When polls start to tighten as they must surely do, Labour will have no idea what to do, given they have no idea why they are twenty points ahead.They assume that wavering Tories find the Rwanda scheme and Sunak as repugnant for the same reasons we do.I think this is wrong.As well as that, the left will see that 20 point lead as permission to ‘Send a message’ by voting fringe or not voting.Theresa May suffered by being too far in front of Corbyn to be able to use fear to motivate voters. Once May dropped her social care clanger, she lost what was looking like close a three figure majority.Jim987‘Sunak has prided himself on all the wrong points’While it’s true that a single poll doesn’t necessarily equate to results, the question of can Sunak win? The answer is a resounding no. This isn’t by any special charisma or likability on Starmer’s part.Sunak has prided himself on all the wrong points in an attempt to win over the UK’s far right, and effectively made himself hated by everyone else. He keeps touting the Rwanda bill as the solution to all the conservative’s problems, and while news articles point to inner party rebellions undermining his projection of power, it misses the broader point that the majority of the UK doesn’t even want it or anyone outside of his bubble thinks immigration is the single most important problem.When Sunak kept a single seat in the House of Lords after losing 2/3, he looked at the one he kept where the overwhelming majority said it was the climate tax and what he took away from that that is “trans people and immigrants.”Sunak absolutely can’t win due to his dedication to pick out all the most perfectly wrong topics and wrong sides of them, finding ways to annoy everybody who isn’t already a loyal conservative voter.Their hope is by waiting for longer this will suddenly make everyone change their minds but it’s actually more likely to do the opposite because it continues to give more time for Sunak to simply open his mouth and find new ways to remind people how much they hate him. He can keep trying to cling to the idea, “It’s just a media narrative people hate me”, and if he tells people to start liking him, they will, but that has failed to persuade or convince anybody, except for Sunak himself.Short summary, it doesn’t take any special competence or charisma on Starmer’s part, but for Starmer, simply not being Sunak is enough.AliYis‘It’s all about Brexit’It’s all about Brexit. The pro-Europe parties currently poll about 60% – which also ties up with Brexit/Rejoin polling. A small Labour working majority is currently the most likely outcome – and also pressures Starmer to pivot back to the SM and CU.sensitiveman‘Starmer will not fix much’Predictions!?1. It will take years for the country to recover from the damage caused by Brexit and the Tory “government”.2. Starmer will not fix much but will win the next election.3. Jenrick will position himself as leader4. Life will continue…Freedom‘He may as well be wearing a blue tie’I wouldn’t trust Starmer as far as I could throw him tbh. He may as well be wearing a blue tie, but honestly, what other options are there? In my opinion the only thing possible is get Thatcher’s sibling in then get shot of him! Chance would be a fine thing, but some of his ideas are verging upon the Tory songbook and I’m pretty sure if he goes any further towards the right he will rightly get the backlash.Terts‘Any change is better than the current mess’It is time for a change. The Tories are destroying themselves and the country. Time for a new chapter hopefully after the general election (sooner the better). There will be party with a clear majority to allow for a fresh start. Any change is better than the current mess.sameoldsameold‘Boot this awful, horrid government out’If we listen to the polling of the last 15 months, we would be looking at a 1997 Blair landslide, if we listen to Sky’s Sam Coates it suggests Labour needs a electoral swing of historic proportions to gain power, which one is the likely scenario?Personally all l want is for the electorate to boot this awful, horrid government out of power for a long, long time.Witchking‘The illusion of choice’I think it will be close, we currently have the illusion of choice with Starmer who is just a humourless version of Johnson to me.Many people who would have voted Labour or Conservative will be voting for different players, like Lib Dem, Greens, or Reform, which may well dilute the effect of the Tory’s ineptitude.Nicko‘An October election at the earliest’It seems that the disgraced philanderer Johnson still has supporters in the Tory party, probably the same ones who support the return of the rather stupid Truss – no surprise there, then….. Does this gang of corrupt incompetents who have ruined Britain and its international reputation really expect to win an election, now, or for a generation to come?I predict Sunak will hang on for as long as he can; he’s too careful to make any serious mistakes, and he loves the power and the helicopters that come with it… which suggests an October election at the earliest.Sarbu‘Better to lose to Labour than chucked by your own side’I think the election will happen quite soon. The Tories are focused on self-canibalisation rather than running the country and Sunak is desperate to protect his image in the history books. So I think Downing St will have its ear to the ground and, if they detect that nearly enough have written a letter to Graham, Sunak will dash for the palace to ask for Parliament to be dissolved. Better to lose an election to Labour than to be chucked on the scrap heap by your own side.Dean‘Closer than the pollsters are predicting’The election will be closer than any of the pollsters are predicting. They haven’t been correct for the past 10 years and the electorate seems to have consistently pushed further to the right in what can only be considered as a collective act of self-harm.The gerrymandering with the boundary changes doesn’t help anyone except the Conservatives. And Starmer isn’t doing himself any favours by not taking bigger steps to distinguish Labour from the Conservatives. There’ll be a lot of apathetic voters out there considering whether its even worth going out to vote.What may be the biggest factor is the timing so here is my theory. Sunak has no mandate for the Rwanda policy. Regardless of what happens in the Commons, the House of Lords knows this, is largely against the policy and can simply slap the brakes on it for a year. Sunak will then try and call a snap election to get a mandate while also claiming how the “undemocratic Lords are obstructing the will of the people”.TheMadGeologist‘Voters have simply switched off’I’d suggest the opinion out there is way worse for the Conservatives than the one commissioned by right-wing Tories.Haven’t they realised that voters have simply switched off and are no longer listening? Every household has an NHS calamity. Nobody knows where they stand with their finances. Good luck with those seats you think are safe.ReadyforchangeTo think we only had Brexit to stop the Tory Party splitting apart… now that we have left our trading partners, friends and neighbours in the EU and have only a cold, lonely future to look forward to, the Tory Party may well split into two as their minority but nasty rightwing again want total control of everything to push their narrow minded agenda on all of us.14U‘Whatever happens struggling remains on the cards’The path the Tories are walking has lost them a lot of support of the voters. The only realistic alternative, thanks to FPTP, is Labour, but Starmer is following Tory policies with a few minor changes … and that’s it!So, the electorate has to ask themselves, do I want to keep the blue incompetence and infighting or do I want the reds that are still drifting into the wrong direction and have no rock solid plan, more of some wishy-washy ideas.Any other party, e.g. Lib Dems and Greens, have no chance in a FPTP system to reach government, especially with undemocratic tactical voting practice.Neither Tories nor Labour want a change to PR (Labour had it high on their list, but Starmer pushed it off) and aren’t interested in the EU single market/custom union, when those two subjects are needed turning points for the British democracy and economy.Whatever happens struggling remains on the cards, prosperity and proper democracy remain unreachable targets.Rasputin007‘14 years of disastrous policies’All anyone needs to do to decimate any Conservative vote is to remind the public that 14 years of disastrous policies has made the vast majority both poorer and with reduced opportunities, while a few have benefited, getting very much richer, while exploiting everyone else.Meanwhile, it is becoming apparent that their supposed prior successes have actually produced short term but unsustainable gains, damaging the country for generations.Topsham1Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.The conversation isn’t over – there’s still time to have your say. If you want to share your opinion then add it in the comments of this story.All you have to do is sign up, submit your question and register your details – then you can then take part in the discussion. You can also sign up by clicking ‘log in’ on the top right-hand corner of the screen.Make sure you adhere to our community guidelines, which can be found here. For a full guide on how to comment click here. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailChancellor Jeremy Hunt has signalled he wants to cut taxes in the Budget, as the Tories gear up for an election in the face of dire poll ratings. Tory MPs are clamouring for a move that would win votes as the latest opinion poll by YouGov shows support for the Tories is at its lowest level since Liz Truss’s final days as prime minister.Holding out the prospect of more money for the NHS, families and the armed forces, Mr Hunt said he wanted to focus on growth in the Budget on 6 March.The chancellor made clear that only unexpected bad news would prevent him from announcing a generous giveaway before a general election, expected in the autumn.The new YouGov survey found that only 10 per cent of voters under the age of 50 intended to vote Conservative in the next general election.Only 20 per cent of more than 2,000 adults polled said they would vote for Rishi Sunak’s party, while fewer than half (49 per cent) of those who backed the Tories in 2019 intend to support them again.At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Hunt said that while he had yet to see the fiscal numbers before the budget, he was hopeful of reducing taxes.“I look around the world and I see that the parts of the world like the United States, like Asia, that are growing the fastest, have the most dynamic economies, tend to be places with lower taxes,” he told Sky News.“And that was why in the autumn statement, we decisively cut taxes.“So my priority in the budget will be growth, because if I can grow the economy, that will mean that then we have more money for the NHS, we can relieve the pressure on families, we can invest in our brilliant armed forces.”He said cutting taxes was “the direction of travel we would like to go in” but it was too early to say what he would do.The chancellor told political and business leaders at the summit that the UK was “on the up and open for business”.The chancellor arrived at the summit in Davos later than other world politicians because he stayed in London to vote on the Rwanda bill on Wednesday night.He said that by the time the vote was over the only way to get to Davos in time for his meetings on Thursday was to charter a private jet.Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “You see leaders from other countries around the world are here and without that leadership from the government, we’re missing out on investment, we’re missing out on jobs and prosperity.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailIt seems that Tory popularity has plummeted to a new low – at least if you’re to believe a seat-by-seat opinion poll which suggested that the Conservatives were facing a 1997-style landslide defeat.However, on Tuesday, just one day after the aforementioned poll results were unveiled, analysis of the new constituency boundaries was published, suggesting it would be hard for Labour to win a majority. With so much contradictory information out there, I’ve been answering readers’ questions on the polls, Conservative popularity amid the Rwanda bill vote and Labour’s position in the run up to the election.It is worth noting that there was no actual contradiction between the two pieces of research, but you could be forgiven for being confused. The new boundaries research, by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, estimated that Labour needs a 12.7 per swing to win a majority – a little more than under old boundaries, which were biased against the Tories.Rallings and Thrasher’s 12.7 per cent swing equates to a Labour lead in vote share of 13.6 points, compared with an average in current opinion polls of 19 points. But Peter Kellner and Electoral Calculus suggest that, because of Labour gains in Scotland and anti-Tory tactical voting everywhere, Labour may need to be only 5 points ahead to win a majority – even on new boundaries.Here are eight questions from Independent readers – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.Q: We keep hearing about ‘swing’. But we have VERY different parties/leaders compared with the last election. When was the last time that the party offerings were so different from at the previous election?Matt HoughtonA: One of the reasons swing is such a powerful tool of analysis is that it allows us to make comparisons between political situations that are, as Matt says, very different. Current opinion polls suggest a swing of 15% from Conservative to Labour compared with the 2019 election. If reflected in actual votes, that would be unprecedented in postwar British politics: the highest swing to date was 10.2% from Con to Lab in 1997.Q: Do you think a Labour majority or a coalition with the Lib Dems is more likely after the election?David GrantA: I now think a Labour majority is more likely than a hung parliament. The opinion polls haven’t moved for a year (see above), and although they might overstate Labour’s advantage when people come to make an actual choice between Starmer and Sunak as PM, the Conservative Party seems to have decided that its best approach to the election is for many of its MPs to take their heads off and run around in circles.A separate point: if there is a hung parliament, Starmer would be PM of a minority Labour government. The Lib Dems would vote with Labour on key votes, but they would not join a coalition – what happened after the last coalition was too painful.Q: Will Sunak do the only decent step when he gets defeated with his Rwanda Bill, resign and call an election?Rasputin007A: I fear that question assumes that the government will be defeated on the Rwanda bill tonight. I think they will win reasonably comfortably. If they do lose, it would be disaster and Sunak would bring it back tomorrow as a vote of confidence. He would win it then, but the damage to the government’s standing would be so much greater. Even so, he will limp on.Q: The Independent has run a series of pieces outlining recent dire predictions for the Tories over the last week but this is not really reflected in the Wikipedia graphical summary, Over the year it shows a downtrend in both parties with a slight recent uptick last week following a down trend the week before and the latest Deltapoll poll shows only a 16% lead. A Labour win but no wipe out. This is coupled with poor performance for both Starmer and Sunak as leaders. Where is this recent enthusiasm coming from?PaddlyA: I accept that headlines sometimes give the impression of change, when the reality is that the opinion polls have been broadly unchanged for the past year. The current average Labour lead is 18-19 percentage points, which is about the same as a year ago. If that were reflected in actual votes, the result would indeed be dire for the Conservatives, with Labour winning a majority of 180-230.What was surprising about the YouGov seat-by-seat poll that was used by the prime minister’s enemies to hint that he should be replaced, is that it put the Labour majority at “only” 120.As for enthusiasm, people don’t have to be thrilled by Keir Starmer to think that Labour deserve a chance.Q: The obsession with small boats makes them look irrelevant and silly. Would it not be better for Sunak to concentrate on those issues that actually affect our everyday lives. Have they no success stories to show us after 14 years in office?SWPeteA: I think Sunak is caught in a bind on this: he had to respond to the small boats issue, but the promise to “stop the boats” was too emphatic and it does seem strange to draw so much attention to something on which most people think the government has failed to deliver.But your question identifies the bigger problem, which is the thinness of the government’s positive record. Sunak can say he saved us from recession during the pandemic, and protected people from the worst of energy price rises, but the voters seem strangely reluctant to show any gratitude.Other possible success stories include the speed of the vaccines and the fact that average earnings are now outpacing inflation, but it seems that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss between them have destroyed the Tories’ reputation in some fundamental way.Q: The Conservative Party will split into two parties. This means there will be six significant choices come any election time. Tory 1, Tory 2, Labour, Lib Dems, Green, Reform plus Nationalist Parties in Wales and Scotland.I think this will lead to a system of PR voting. Suddenly these groups will realise it’s their only chance to win a significant number of seats. How realistic do you think this is?VoxtrotA: I disagree with your prediction, Voxtrot. The first-past-the-post voting system is a strong disincentive against breakaway parties – as Change UK discovered 5 years ago, and the Social Democratic Party found 41 years ago.Proportional representation would have to come first, before one of the major parties split, and it isn’t going to happen. Keir Starmer has been emphatic in rejecting it – interestingly, unlike Tony Blair, who pretended to be in favour as long as he was leading the Liberal Democrats up the garden path.Q: I’m no fan of Sunak, but I’m a little repelled by the personal nature of the reported findings. The quoted terms “spineless and false”, and “cringe” don’t, I think, crop up all that much in everyday language, and I wonder whether they reflect some loaded wording in the poll’s questions? It matters, because if people are over-persuaded of the Tories’ desperate situation, they might not bother to vote.PeterMA: I am a strong advocate of focus-group research, but I think it needs to be reported carefully. The JL Partners poll that The Independent reported the other day was a focus group of swing voters – a small and unrepresentative group, but one which could give us some insight into thinking behind bland quantitative polling. For example, Rishi Sunak records net satisfaction of minus 42 in Ipsos’s latest poll (21% satisfied, 63% dissatisfied), and the focus group gives some clue as to the strength of feeling that lies behind these numbers.Q: Do polls point to polarisation of the vote — do you think the prevailing winds reduce the chances of success for independent candidates?Matt HoughtonA: I think the chances of success for independent candidates are always extremely low in our voting system! I don’t know if public opinion has become more polarised: I think support for Reform UK and the Greens has increased for specific reasons, namely Tory turmoil and the growing sense of urgency among young people especially about the climate crisis. But the result is almost certain to be Reform 0 or 1 seat (if Nigel Farage stands in, say, Clacton); Greens 0, 1 or 2 seats (Brighton Pavilion and Bristol West).These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul on Wednesday 16 January Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.For more exclusive political insight sign up to John’s weekly Commons Confidential email, exclusively for Independent Premium subscribers.All you need to do to sign up is subscribe to Independent Premium, which you can do here.When you subscribe you will be asked to select the newsletters you would like to receive – make sure you pick Commons Confidential to receive my weekly email.If you’re already subscribed to Independent Premium and want to check out our full offering of Premium and free newsletters click here. More