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      The economic paradox of the Biden presidency

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      Employers have been adding jobs since Joe Biden took office, but will the good news translate into votes?Labor painsOne of the more puzzling aspects of the U.S. economy is that employers have been on an almost uninterrupted hiring spree since President Biden took office — and analysts see no signs that the trend will reverse any time soon.The paradox is that there is no guarantee that the jobs boom will keep Biden in the White House beyond November, completely scrambling the adage “It’s the economy, stupid” that wins elections.For 39 straight months, employers have added jobs despite many predictions that the United States was destined for a recession. They have also faced a long list of challenges, that have hobbled many of America’s peers, including high inflation and interest rates; wars in Ukraine and Gaza that have sent energy prices soaring; and shipping turmoil in the Panama Canal, Red Sea and now the Port of Baltimore.March was another blockbuster for jobs. The latest data released Friday overshot analysts’ expectations by a huge margin, with employers adding 303,000 jobs. That takes the tally over the past 12 months to more than 2.8 million hires — and economists expect the upward course to continue. “We do think there’s still room for growth” into next year, Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura, told DealBook.It’s less certain if Biden will be able to capitalize on that in his race with Donald Trump. The White House heralded the latest numbers as “a milestone in America’s comeback,” and held it up as proof that the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act, two signature pieces of Biden’s agenda, were growing the economy.But the red-hot labor market could just as easily exacerbate two of Biden’s big vulnerabilities: inflation, with strong wages fueling a surge in spending that pushes up prices on everything from gasoline to concert tickets; and higher-for-longer interest rates to counteract those price rises. A growing chorus of Wall Street analysts were forecasting that the Fed would be in no rush to reduce borrowing costs after yesterday’s report.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden Reports Major Cash Haul in March as Trump Looks to Catch Up

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      President Biden continued to build on his commanding financial advantage over former President Donald J. Trump, raising more than $90 million in March together with the Democratic Party and affiliated committees, his campaign said.Mr. Biden, the party and their shared accounts now have $192 million on hand going into April, according to his campaign — more than double what Mr. Trump reported in his coffers this week. Since Mr. Biden began his re-election bid, 1.6 million Americans have donated money to him, his campaign said, reflecting a broad base of financial support.These are “real investments that real Americans are making into this campaign,” said Rufus Gifford, the Biden campaign’s finance chair.Mr. Gifford suggested that the campaign’s fund-raising strength was more important than polls that have consistently showed Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump.“You can’t lie about the numbers,” Mr. Gifford said. “They’re not theoretical. It’s not a random poll that is just one moment in time.”The president’s numbers were fueled by a $26 million haul from a fund-raiser at Radio City Music Hall in New York City that featured former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. His campaign also said he raised $10 million in the 24 hours after his State of the Union address on March 7.Mr. Trump has increased the pace of his own fund-raising, hosting wealthy donors at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla. His campaign said it and the Republican National Committee raised $65.6 million in March, Mr. Trump’s best fund-raising month so far. Trump campaign aides say they plan to out-raise Mr. Biden’s three-president bash with a major fund-raiser of their own on Saturday in Palm Beach.But Mr. Biden’s prodigious March may take some of the wind out of Mr. Trump’s sails.“We’ve got all the momentum now, and I think you’re going to continue to see it,” said Jeffrey Katzenberg, a co-chair of the Biden campaign. “These are spectacular outcomes for the campaign and a vote of confidence for the president and vice president.”Of course, having the most money does not guarantee victory. And there are signs that Mr. Trump may continue to up his fund-raising.March was the first month that Mr. Trump, now his party’s presumptive nominee, started to raise money in joint accounts with the R.N.C. Those accounts can accept far larger donations than Mr. Trump was allowed to in the primary.Mr. Trump, the R.N.C. and their shared accounts roughly doubled their available cash on hand going into April. That figure now stands at $93.1 million, although it is still far less than Mr. Biden and the Democrats.Shane Goldmacher More

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      When Food, War and Politics Collide

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      It is usually an afterthought in politics, but the power of food was made clear this week.The deadly Israeli strike on an aid convoy that killed seven workers for the relief group World Central Kitchen in the Gaza Strip shook official Washington this week. It prompted President Biden to issue his sharpest public criticism of Israel to date and spurred Israel’s military to make a rare admission of fault.It also revealed the power of something that is usually an afterthought in national and global politics: food.José Andrés, the celebrity chef who built World Central Kitchen from a scrappy outfit feeding hurricane victims to a $500 million relief organization operating in war zones, dialed up political pressure on both Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. He spoke directly with Biden, White House officials said on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, in an interview with Reuters, he accused the Israel Defense Forces of “systematically” attacking the three-car convoy.On Thursday, Biden held a tense call with Netanyahu, threatening to place conditions on future support for the country. Hours later, Israel said it would permit more aid deliveries in Gaza. It also promised new steps to reduce civilian casualties and broker a temporary cease-fire in exchange for the release of hostages who are being held in Gaza by Hamas militants after they attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 people.I spoke with my colleague Kim Severson, a reporter who covers food for The New York Times and has written extensively about Andrés, about the celebrity chef’s political activism and why the deaths of these seven workers have drawn so much attention in a war that has already been so deadly. The interview was edited and condensed.JB: We know José Andrés as a celebrity chef who brings relief efforts all over the world, and who doesn’t hesitate to wade into politics. How did his message evolve over the course of this week?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      What to Know About RFK. Jr. and His Threat to Biden and Trump

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      Mr. Kennedy has become the most prominent independent or third-party presence in the 2024 race.The independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has emerged as a wild card of the 2024 election, attracting a motley mix of ideologically diverse supporters, raising piles of cash and drawing legal attacks from Democrats and verbal barrages from former President Donald J. Trump.Mr. Kennedy, 70, the son of Robert F. Kennedy and an heir to an American political dynasty, had a troubled youth and young adulthood marked by drug abuse. He became an environmental lawyer, most famous for suing corporate polluters in an effort to clean up the Hudson Valley watershed.In the past decade, he has become a prominent voice in the anti-vaccine movement, promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories about the risks of childhood vaccinations and other public health measures. That work gave him a large platform during the coronavirus pandemic, when he questioned the safety of Covid vaccines and the official narratives of the virus’s origins.With the centrist group No Labels announcing on April 4 that it would not run a presidential ticket, Mr. Kennedy is the most prominent independent or third-party presence in the 2024 race. Here’s what to know about him, his supporters and how President Biden’s and Mr. Trump’s campaigns are approaching him.What party is R.F.K. Jr. affiliated with?Mr. Kennedy is running as an independent, so he is not affiliated with an established political party — he is not even, technically speaking, a “third-party candidate.” In keeping with his family’s political legacy, Mr. Kennedy was a lifelong Democrat, and when he entered the race in April 2023, he sought to challenge Mr. Biden for the party’s nomination. Six months later, he announced that he would run as an independent, saying the Democrats had corruptly blocked his efforts.He has flirted with the Libertarian Party, which is on the ballot in about three dozen states. If he were to join its ticket, his efforts to get on states’ ballots would become much simpler.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Opposition to Muslim Judicial Nominee Leaves Biden With a Tough Choice

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      Adeel Mangi would be the first Muslim American to be a federal appeals court judge, but has faced vitriolic attacks from the G.O.P. The president could run out of time to fill the seat.The nomination of the first Muslim American to a federal appeals court judgeship is in deep trouble in the Senate, leaving President Biden with a painful choice between withdrawing the name of Adeel Mangi or trying to overcome the opposition at the risk of losing the chance to fill the crucial post before the November elections.Three Democrats have said they intend to oppose the confirmation of Mr. Mangi to the Philadelphia-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in response to objections from local law enforcement groups. He has also faced what his backers label an unfounded bigoted assault from Republicans who have accused him of antisemitism and sympathy with terrorists.If Republicans remain united against him, as expected, and the Democrats cannot be persuaded to change their position, Mr. Mangi would lack the votes to be confirmed.The showdown is a new obstacle for the Biden administration and Senate Democrats as they try to fill as many federal court openings as they can before November. It has also angered Democrats who believe Mr. Mangi, a litigator from New Jersey and partner in a New York law firm, has been subjected to a baseless and ugly assault by Republicans because of his religion.“This has been the most brutal attack I have ever seen on anyone — and that is saying something,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Senate Democrat and chairman of the Judiciary Committee. He dismissed any notion of antisemitism on the part of Mr. Mangi, saying, “There is no basis whatsoever for even suggesting he has that point of view.”The seat that Mr. Mangi was nominated for is notable since the court, which hears matters from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and the Virgin Islands, is currently divided 7-6 in favor of judges nominated by Republican presidents. Mr. Biden could even the court’s makeup by filling the vacancy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Israel Agrees to Open Erez Crossing for Gaza Aid After Biden Pressure, U.S. Says

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      Israel agreed to open another crossing for aid to get into Gaza, the Biden administration said late Thursday, a move seemingly aimed at tempering the U.S. president’s growing frustration over the dire humanitarian crisis in the enclave.The Israeli government did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the announcement, which came hours after President Biden had a tense phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the call, Mr. Biden threatened to condition future support for Israel on how it addresses his concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian situation in Gaza.In a statement, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council said that Israel had agreed to open the Erez crossing to allow aid into northern Gaza, to use the port of Ashdod to direct aid into the enclave and to significantly increase deliveries from Jordan — “at the president’s request.”“These steps,” the spokeswoman, Adrienne Watson, said, “must now be fully and rapidly implemented.” More

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      Why Some Billionaires Will Back Trump

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      Donald Trump’s campaign is reportedly strapped for cash. Small-dollar donations are running far behind their 2020 pace. Big Trump rallies aren’t yielding his biggest cash hauls. Some large-dollar donors are hesitant, in part because they worry (with good reason) that their money will be used not for the campaign but to pay his legal bills. So he has been wooing right-wing billionaires.I have no idea how successful he’ll be, but it seems highly likely that at least some billionaires will provide substantial sums to a man who tried to overturn the last election and has been open about his authoritarian intentions — using the Justice Department to go after his political opponents, rounding up millions of undocumented immigrants and putting them into detention camps and more.Which raises the question: Why would billionaires support such a person?After all, it’s not as if they’ve been suffering under President Biden. Economists, myself included, often remind people that the stock market is not the economy. Low unemployment and rising real wages — both of which, by the way, the Biden economy has delivered, even if many people don’t believe it — have much more relevance to most people’s lives.But stock prices are probably a much better indicator of how the very wealthy, who hold a lot of financial assets, are doing. And although in 2020 Trump predicted a stock crash if Biden won, the market has, in fact, been hitting record highs under the current administration.Why, then, back a candidate who more or less promises to unleash social and political chaos?One straightforward answer is that the wealthy will almost certainly pay lower taxes — and corporations will be less regulated — if Trump wins than if Biden stays in office.If you believe, like some leftists, that Republicans and Democrats are basically the same — that both serve the interests of corporations and the elite — you’re wrong. The modern Democratic Party isn’t, despite what prominent Republicans say, Marxist or socialist. It does, however, have a track record of raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for social programs. Notably, the Affordable Care Act used new taxes on high-income individuals to pay for health care subsidies.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Spoke Recently With Saudi Leader

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      It is not clear what the former president discussed with Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but news of their call came amid Biden administration negotiations with the Saudis over a Middle East peace plan.Former President Donald J. Trump spoke recently with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, their first publicly disclosed conversation since Mr. Trump left office in January 2021, according to two people briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to speak publicly about it.It was unclear what the two men discussed and whether it was their only conversation since Mr. Trump’s departure from the White House. Neither representatives for Mr. Trump nor an official of the Saudi government responded to requests for comment.But news of their discussion comes at a time when the Biden administration is engaged in delicate negotiations with the Saudis aimed at establishing a lasting peace in the Middle East, building on diplomatic ties between Israel and a number of Arab states forged through the work of the Trump administration.If President Biden manages to clinch a trilateral megadeal — which would probably include a Saudi-Israeli peace agreement, an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution, a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty and U.S.-Saudi understandings on a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia — he will need support from two-thirds of senators to ratify the U.S.-Saudi treaty. Mr. Trump, as the presumptive Republican nominee in firm command of his party, could potentially either block any deal or greenlight it for congressional Republicans.Mr. Trump has other reasons to maintain warm relations with Prince Mohammed. The former president and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and former senior White House adviser, established close ties with the crown prince while in office and have capitalized on that good will in their private businesses since leaving government.Saudi Arabia was the first stop on Mr. Trump’s first foreign trip as president — a sign of the value Mr. Trump placed on the relationship. Mr. Trump pursued major deals with the Saudis, including arms sales, and he defended Prince Mohammed at his moment of greatest international pressure, after the C.I.A. concluded that the crown prince had ordered the killing of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More