Bolsonaro, Jair (1955- )

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      Election Deniers in U.S. Push Idea of Voting Fraud in Brazil

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      The false specter of an election rife with conspiracy and fraud — this one in Brazil — is spreading around American right-wing media channels from prominent election denialists still fixated on the fiction that Donald J. Trump was robbed of the presidency two years ago. Some used the voting in Brazil on Sunday to try to whip up concern about the approaching midterm elections in the United States.“Dear Brazil, please watch those vote counts at 3 a.m.,” Mark Finchem, the Republican candidate for Arizona secretary of state, wrote on his Telegram channel on Sunday, Election Day in Brazil. “They are a doozy.”Mr. Finchem also warned of “suitcases coming out under tables” and “pizza boxes up in front of windows to block poll watchers.” These motifs were based on debunked but prominent conspiracy theories pushed by allies of Mr. Trump who tried to overturn the results of the election in 2020.President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, whose candidacy Mr. Trump and his supporters favored, outperformed expectations, forcing an Oct. 30 runoff election against his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Some of the Trump allies sowing doubt in elections helped export their strategy to Brazil after the 2020 election. Donald Trump Jr. warned about Chinese meddling in a speech in Brazil last year, while Mr. Bolsonaro’s son appeared at an event in South Dakota last year hosted by the pillow entrepreneur Mike Lindell, a prominent promoter of election conspiracy theories.As our colleagues in Brazil have written, Mr. Bolsonaro has been attacking the election system for months and suggesting that if he did not win, it would be due to fraud. There is no evidence of past widespread fraud and Brazil election officials maintained that these allegations are false.Despite attempts by American election deniers to draw parallels between the two countries, Brazil’s voting system is markedly different from that in the U.S. Rather than using different procedures and equipment in each state, Brazilian voters use the same machines nationwide, and there is no voting by mail. As a result, results can be delivered in a matter of hours.On Monday, even after the better-than-expected results, some allies of Mr. Trump were in the strange position of continuing to push the idea of election fraud even while celebrating the outcome.Stephen K. Bannon said on his show on Monday morning that the Brazilian election was an “absolutely central and very stark warning to MAGA and to all the Republicans of the games being played in these elections.” He referred American viewers to a list of vigilante activities they could participate in for the upcoming election in their own country.Gateway Pundit, a right-wing website, described the election in a headline as experiencing “MASSIVE Fraud” while hailing its outcome. More

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      Brazil Braces for ‘White-Knuckle Race’ Between Bolsonaro and Lula

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      President Jair Bolsonaro had once looked doomed in the country’s high-stakes election. But now, in a runoff, the right-wing incumbent has a path to re-election.RIO DE JANEIRO — In the early morning hours on Monday, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil went to bed vindicated. The night’s election results had shown, just as he had claimed, that the polls had severely underestimated the strength of his right-wing movement.Hours later, he awoke to a new challenge: How to obtain millions more votes in just four weeks?On Oct. 30, Mr. Bolsonaro will face a leftist challenger, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in a runoff election to lead Latin America’s largest nation.Now the contest — a matchup between Brazil’s two biggest political heavyweights — could swing either way and promises to prolong what has already been a bruising battle that has polarized the nation and tested the strength of its democracy.“Lula is still the favorite, but you can totally imagine this becoming a Bolsonaro victory,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a Brazilian political scientist. “If you add up all the numbers of the third-party candidates, there are sufficient votes out there.”Mr. da Silva, known universally as Lula, finished first on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the vote, versus 43.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro. That put Mr. da Silva about 1.85 million votes shy of the 50 percent he needed for an outright victory in the first round, while Mr. Bolsonaro came up 8 million votes short.What now makes the race unpredictable is that so many other votes appear up for grabs. Nearly 10 million people cast ballots on Sunday for candidates who are now out of the contest, with roughly a third of those votes going to a center-left candidate and two-thirds to center-right candidates. An additional 38 million people cast blank ballots or did not vote.The former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished first on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the vote, versus 43.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesAs the campaign enters a second phase, both sides have expressed confidence. Mr. da Silva said he welcomed the opportunity to finally debate Mr. Bolsonaro head-to-head, while Mr. Bolsonaro said he believed his campaign had the momentum and a plan for victory.On Monday, Mr. Bolsonaro was already using the tools of his office to his advantage. He moved up to next week the delivery of $115 checks for low-income Brazilians, part of a monthly welfare program that he recently expanded in a last-minute bid to lure more support. On Sunday night, Mr. Bolsonaro cited that assistance as one reason he outperformed predictions by polls.Pollsters had forecast that Mr. Bolsonaro would receive roughly 36 percent of the vote, more than 7 percentage points below his actual tally. They had overestimated Mr. da Silva’s support only slightly.The question of why the polls had underestimated Mr. Bolsonaro’s support confounded Brazilian political circles on Monday. Pollsters speculated that voters were dishonest because they were ashamed to admit they were voting for the president, whose false claims on a variety of issues have made him a pariah in some circles, or that they simply lied to sabotage the forecasts. Mr. Bolsonaro has railed against the polling industry — on Sunday night he called them liars — and many of his supporters have followed suit.Things could get even more complicated ahead of the runoff. Mr. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira, urged the president’s supporters to reject any pollsters wanting to interview them.The vote on Sunday delivered good news for conservatives in most governor and congressional elections, including many candidates closely aligned with Mr. Bolsonaro. Dado Galdieri for The New York Times“That way, it’ll be certain from the start that any of their results are fraudulent,” he wrote on Twitter to his 100,000 followers. He then suggested the pollsters got it wrong on purpose. “Only a deep investigation will tell,” he said.Antonio Lavareda, the president of Ipespe, a top polling company, said he needed to examine the effect of voters staying home; 21 percent of the electorate did not vote, the highest share since 1998. He also speculated that many people who said they would vote for third-party candidates switched to Mr. Bolsonaro at the last minute.But despite his firm’s inaccurate forecasts for the president in the first round, Mr. Lavareda still made a bold prediction: Mr. da Silva’s 48.4 percent support on Sunday meant that “it’s practically impossible” he does not win on Oct. 30.Still, the fallout from the polls left a bad taste for many Brazilians and experts.“I’ve sworn off polls for the next four weeks,” said Brian Winter, a Latin America analyst with Americas Society/Council of the Americas, a group that pushes free trade in the Americas. “Their methodology is broken.”The survey forecasts and lack of clarity in the race could lead to a tense situation when the results are revealed on Oct. 30. Mr. Bolsonaro has for months told his supporters to suspect voter fraud — despite offering no evidence — and he has suggested that the only way he could lose is if the election is stolen.Those unsubstantiated claims appear to have persuaded millions of voters in Brazil. On Sunday night, many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters were already claiming foul play. “It’s fraud. Lula can’t be ahead of Bolsonaro,” said Yasmin Simões, 28, a retail employee gathered with other supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro outside his home in a beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro. “If Lula is elected — by fraud — there’s definitely going to be a revolt, and I’m in.”The success of Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies and his stronger-than-expected support also shows that he maintains a firm grip on the conservative movement in Brazil.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesSome prominent conservative pundits also began pushing claims, without evidence, that something fishy had occurred in Sunday’s voting.“I think it’s VERY possible that there was fraud,” Rodrigo Constantino, a right-wing Brazilian pundit who lives in Florida, wrote to his 1.3 million followers on Twitter. “The ONLY GOAL has to be to win so many votes for Bolsonaro that not even a strange algorithm can change it!”The vote on Sunday delivered good news for conservatives in most governor and congressional elections, including many candidates closely aligned with Mr. Bolsonaro. At least eight of his former ministers were elected to Congress, including several who were once shrouded in scandal. Overall, Mr. Bolsonaro’s political party picked up 29 seats in Congress, giving it 112 in total, the biggest party in both the House and Senate.As a result, if elected to a second term, Mr. Bolsonaro could be emboldened by his effective control of Congress and more significantly remake Brazilian society in his vision. For Mr. da Silva, the conservative Congress could complicate his efforts to govern.The success of Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies and his stronger-than-expected support also shows that he maintains a firm grip on the conservative movement in Brazil.“Brazil’s moderate right is a political wasteland,” Mr. Stuenkel said. “Part of the extreme polarization in Brazil is that, on the right, Bolsonaro reigns supreme.”Over the next four weeks, Mr. Bolsonaro’s team plans to target the swing state of Minas Gerais, where it believes it can pick up one million votes, and looks to improve its results in Mr. da Silva’s stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, said Fábio Faria, Brazil’s communications minister and a senior adviser to the president. “We are really confident,” he said.Mr. da Silva’s campaign plans to highlight Mr. Bolsonaro’s string of false statements and show that the economy performed far better during Mr. da Silva’s two terms, from 2003 through 2010, than during Mr. Bolsonaro’s tenure.Mr. da Silva during a rally on Saturday. Analysts predict that he will moderate his stump speech in order to attract more centrist voters.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“It will be the first chance for us to have a tête-à-tête debate with the president,” Mr. da Silva told supporters Sunday night. “Is he going to keep telling lies or will he, at least once in his life, tell the truth to the Brazilian people?”Mr. da Silva had focused his campaign on raising taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, but — after Sunday’s results — analysts predicted that he would moderate his stump speech in order to attract more centrists.“You have to go to the Bolsonaro corners of the country,” said Senator Jean-Paul Prates, a senior adviser to Mr. da Silva’s campaign. “You have to show your face, smile at these people in the south, the midwest, and talk about the things that concern their lives.”In the eight previous presidential elections in Brazil’s modern democracy, the candidate that has led in the first round has never lost in the second. But the 5 percentage points separating Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. da Silva are also the slimmest margin between two candidates in a runoff.As a result, Mr. Winter said, “this is going to be a white-knuckle race.” More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Indonesia Investigates Its Soccer Tragedy

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      Plus Brazil’s elections move to a runoff and Ukraine surges forward in the Donbas.Relatives mourn victims killed at a soccer match in Malang, Indonesia.Mast Irham/EPA, via ShutterstockAnger mounts in IndonesiaAn independent commission in Indonesia will investigate the deaths of at least 125 people, including 33 children, who were killed at a soccer game on Saturday. After soccer fans at a stadium in Malang rushed onto the field following a 3-2 home-game defeat, the police fired tear gas into the stands. Panic ensued.The authorities have interviewed 18 officers who fired tear gas. Military personnel who were seen hitting fans would face punishment, according to the national police chief. The police chief in Malang was among nine local officers suspended yesterday.The deadly clash has inspired widespread accusations that the police helped turn minor unrest into one of the deadliest stadium catastrophes in history. Indonesia said that officers suspected of wrongful violence would face criminal charges.New details: Many people were trampled as they rushed for the exits, only two of which were open, according to a human rights official. Some victims died in the stadium’s changing rooms, where players tried to help them.Analysis: Members of Indonesia’s police system are almost never held accountable for their actions. Under the government of President Joko Widodo, officers have used brute force to suppress crowds, accepted bribes and largely operated with impunity.Background: At the stadium in Malang, tear gas fired by the police had also turned deadly in 2018.Brazilians use soccer jerseys as a show of support for Jair Bolsonaro, the president.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesA runoff in BrazilBrazil’s national elections went to a runoff after Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right president, outperformed in the polls. He received 43.23 percent of the vote; his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president, received 48.4 percent.The two political titans will face off again on Oct. 30, for what is widely regarded as the most important vote in decades for the largest nation in Latin America. Over the next four weeks, Bolsonaro will have to make up ground on Lula.The election is considered across the world as a major test for democracy. For months, Bolsonaro has criticized, without any evidence, electronic voting machines as rife with fraud, suggesting that the only way he would lose is if the election were rigged.The State of the WarAnnexation Push: After Moscow’s proxies conducted a series of sham referendums in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, President Vladimir V. Putin declared the four territories to be part of Russia. Western leaders, including President Biden in the United States, denounced the annexation as illegal.Retreat From Key City: Russian forces withdrew from the strategically important city of Lyman, in Donetsk Province, on Oct. 1. The retreat was a significant setback for Moscow, coming just a day after Mr. Putin declared the region to be Russian territory.Putin’s Nuclear Threats: For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, top Russian leaders are making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should Mr. Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon.Russia’s Draft: The Kremlin has acknowledged that its new military draft is rife with problems, as protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have left the country.Issues: Brazil faces environmental threats, rising hunger, a sputtering economy and a deeply polarized population. The two candidates radically differ in their approaches to each issue.Region: A victory by Lula would extend a string of left-wing victories across Latin America, fueled by anti-incumbent backlash. Brazil could become the sixth of the region’s seven largest countries to elect a leftist leader since 2018.After capturing Lyman over the weekend, Ukrainian forces moved toward new positions.Nicole Tung for The New York TimesUkraine advances in the DonbasRussian forces in Ukraine were on the run across the frontline yesterday, as the Ukrainian military pressed toward the eastern Donbas region and made gains in the south.Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces captured Lyman, in the Donetsk region, before word of Vladimir Putin’s illegal annexation of the territory a day earlier could even reach its residents.With Russian troops in disarray on the battlefield, the Kremlin fared no better. It acknowledged that it does not even know the boundaries of two regions it recently declared to be part of Russia — a move that Kyiv and Western leaders said was illegal.“In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, told reporters yesterday.Russia also continued to struggle with its military draft. Half of the several thousand residents who had been drafted in the far eastern region of Khabarovsk were returned home. The region’s governor, Mikhail Degtyarev, said they “did not meet the criteria for military service.”Background: Since Putin announced a “partial mobilization” last month, protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have fled the country.In other updates:Denmark said that the Nord Stream pipelines have stopped leaking. The cause remains unknown, but political leaders in Europe and the U.S. have speculated it was an act of sabotage by Russia.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificBrittany Higgins was 26 when she accused a colleague, Bruce Lehrmann, of rape.Jamila Toderas/Getty ImagesBrittany Higgins, a former employee of Australia’s government, said that a colleague raped her in the country’s Parliament in 2019. His trial begins today.The U.S. is preparing to announce new measures to try to cut China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology.Heavy rains are worsening floods in Thailand, The Associated Press reports.The Associated Press found that as many as 52 people died in a suicide bombing last week in Kabul, more than twice the Taliban’s official count of 25.World NewsThe last Supreme Court term ended with a bombshell decision that eliminated the right to abortion.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesIn the U.S., a new Supreme Court term began yesterday. The six-justice conservative supermajority is expected to continue steering the court right on issues including affirmative action and gay rights.Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, reversed plans to cut tax rates on high earners, after her proposal sent the British pound into a tailspin.Oil prices jumped yesterday after news that OPEC Plus may cut production. The move would reverse increases that had pushed prices down.What Else Is HappeningSvante Pääbo, a Swedish geneticist, won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for sequencing the Neanderthal genome.Sacheen Littlefeather, the Apache activist and actress who declined Marlon Brando’s Academy Award on his behalf in 1973, has died at 75.Kim Kardashian will pay $1.26 million as part of a settlement for not disclosing that she had been paid to promote a crypto token.A Morning ReadFor Kana Komatsubara, 26, a nail stylist, a tiny apartment offered a gateway to long-deferred independence from her parents.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesSome young people in Japan are choosing to live in teeny tiny apartments. They’re stylish and located in trendy neighborhoods near subway stations, perfect for those who work long hours and are rarely at home.“I wouldn’t live anywhere else,” said Yugo Kinoshita, 19, who uses a lint roller to clean his floor.Lives lived: Antonio Inoki, a Japanese wrestler who faced Muhammad Ali in an anticlimactic stunt match in 1976, later became an unlikely diplomat. He died at 79.ARTS AND IDEASA rabbi for allRabbi Delphine Horvilleur is one of only five female rabbis in all of France. And she has a particular preoccupation with death — one she attributes to officiating at least two funerals a week and being a grandchild of Holocaust survivors.In 2020, when the coronavirus forced Paris to shut down, she found herself conducting funerals over Zoom, while her two youngest children watched cartoons in the next room. With Passover under lockdown, she decided to deliver weekly talks about Jewish texts. Her reflections on the Talmud, Jewish mysticism and death have since reached well beyond her congregation of 1,200 in the French capital, drawing thousands of Jews, Muslims, Christians, believers and nonbelievers.“She is my rabbi,” said Edith Gillet, 49, a French atheist with a Catholic grandmother and no plans to convert. “I got hooked on her because she’s so inspirational in such dark times,” Gillet, who watches Rabbi Horvilleur from her home in California, said. “I’m drawn more to her philosophy than to any notion of God.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York TimesMake Yossy Arefi’s peanut-butter chocolate-chip cookies in just 30 minutes.What to WatchThe British filmmaker Peter Strickland crafts strange, unconventional cinematic universes. His latest, “Flux Gourmet,” reveals his affinity with sound in new ways.RomanceDating with chronic illness involves unique challenges.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Thai currency (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — Jessica and AmeliaP.S. The Times won five Emmys, and three Gerald Loeb Awards for business journalism.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Latino voters in the U.S.You can reach Jessica, Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Bolsonaro supera los pronósticos y va a segunda vuelta con Lula

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      Dos titanes políticos se enfrentarán a finales de este mes en unas elecciones que se consideran una prueba importante para una de las mayores democracias del mundo.RÍO DE JANEIRO —Durante meses, encuestadores y analistas habían dicho que el presidente Jair Bolsonaro estaba destinado al fracaso. Se enfrentaba a una desventaja amplia e inquebrantable en la contienda presidencial de Brasil, y en las últimas semanas, las encuestas habían sugerido que incluso podría perder en la primera ronda, con lo que habría concluido su presidencia después de solo un mandato.En cambio, era Bolsonaro quien estaba celebrando. Aunque el contendiente, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un expresidente de izquierda, terminó la noche con más votos, Bolsonaro superó con creces los pronósticos y envió la contienda a una segunda vuelta.Da Silva recibió el 48,4 por ciento de los votos el domingo, frente al 43,23 por ciento de Bolsonaro, con el 99,87 por ciento de los votos contados, según la agencia electoral de Brasil. Da Silva necesitaba superar el 50 por ciento para ser elegido presidente en la primera vuelta.Se enfrentarán el 30 de octubre en la que se considera la votación más importante en décadas para el país más grande de América Latina.Esto se debe en parte a las visiones dramáticamente distintas que los dos candidatos plantean para este país de 217 millones de habitantes, y también a que Brasil enfrenta una serie de desafíos en los años por venir, entre ellos las amenazas ambientales, el aumento del hambre, una economía inestable y una población profundamente polarizada.El expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva da un mensaje tras el anuncio de los resultados electorales el domingo. Da Silva y el presidente Jair Bolsonaro se enfrentarán en una segunda vuelta a finales de este mes.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesPero la elección también ha llamado la atención en Brasil y en el extranjero porque ha supuesto una gran prueba para una de las mayores democracias del mundo. Bolsonaro ha criticado las máquinas de votar del país, ha dicho que están plagadas de fraude —a pesar de que no haya pruebas de ello— y había insinuado que la única forma en la que perdería era si la elección resultaba amañada.Bolsonaro le dijo a los periodistas el domingo por la noche que había “superado las mentiras” de las encuestas y que sentía que ahora tenía una ventaja en la segunda vuelta. Incluso con los resultados favorables, también sugirió que podría haber habido fraude y advirtió que esperaría a que los militares verificaran los resultados.“Nuestro sistema no está blindado al 100 por ciento”, dijo. “Siempre existe la posibilidad de que suceda algo anormal en un sistema completamente computarizado”.Durante meses, Bolsonaro había dicho que las encuestas estaban subestimando su apoyo y como evidencia apuntaba a sus enormes mítines. Sin embargo, todas las encuestas confiables lo mostraban en desventaja. El domingo quedó claro que tenía razón. Con la mayoría de los votos contados, se desempeñó mejor en los 27 estados de Brasil de lo que Ipec, una de las encuestadoras más prestigiosas de Brasil, había pronosticado un día antes de las elecciones, al exceder las proyecciones por al menos ocho puntos porcentuales en 10 estados.Parece que los encuestadores estimaron mal la fuerza de los candidatos conservadores en todo el país. Los gobernadores y legisladores respaldados por Bolsonaro también superaron las expectativas de las encuestas y ganaron muchas de sus contiendas el domingo.Cláudio Castro, gobernador del estado de Río de Janeiro, fue reelecto de forma contundente, con el 58 por ciento de los votos, 11 puntos porcentuales por encima de lo previsto por el Ipec. Al menos siete exministros de Bolsonaro también fueron elegidos para el Congreso, entre ellos su exministro de Medioambiente, quien supervisó la deforestación vertiginosa en la Amazonía, y su exministro de Salud, quien fue criticado de manera generalizada por la demora de Brasil al comprar vacunas durante la pandemia.Antonio Lavareda, el presidente de Ipespe, otra gran encuestadora, defendió la investigación de su empresa al indicar que había predicho que Da Silva terminaría con 49 por ciento, frente al 48 por ciento que obtuvo.Sin embargo, Ipespe también anticipaba que Bolsonaro recibiría el 35 por ciento del voto, más de 8 puntos porcentuales abajo del apoyo que en realidad recibió. El margen de error de la encuesta era de 3 puntos porcentuales. (Dicha tendencia se notó en todas las encuestas: fueron casi exactas en lo referente al apoyo a Da Silva, pero muy desacertadas sobre Bolsonaro).Lavareda especuló que muchos votantes que dijeron que votarían por candidatos menos populares al final se inclinaron por Bolsonaro, o que habían mentido en las encuestas.Afuera de la casa de Bolsonaro, en un barrio acomodado junto a la playa en Río de Janeiro, sus seguidores se reunieron para celebrar, bailar y beber cerveza. Muchos llevaban la camiseta verde amarela de la selección nacional de fútbol de Brasil, que se ha convertido en una especie de uniforme para muchos de los seguidores de Bolsonaro. (El presidente usó una para votar, sobre lo que parecía ser un chaleco antibalas o un chaleco protector).“Esperábamos que tuviera una ventaja del 70 por ciento” de los votos, dijo Silvana Maria Lenzir, de 65 años, una mujer jubilada que llevaba calcomanías del rostro de Bolsonaro que cubrían su pecho. “Las encuestas no reflejan la realidad”.El presidente Jair Bolsonaro en un mitin en Campinas, estado de Sao Paulo, el mes pasadoVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesAún así, durante las próximas cuatro semanas, Bolsonaro tendrá que recuperar terreno frente a Da Silva, quien obtuvo más votos el domingo. El presidente de derecha está tratando de evitar convertirse en el primer presidente en funciones que pierde la reelección desde el inicio de la democracia moderna en Brasil, en 1988.Al mismo tiempo, Da Silva intenta completar un sorprendente resurgimiento político que hace años parecía impensable.Aunque terminó la noche como el candidato más votado, el discurso que pronunció ante sus seguidores tomó un tono sombrío. Pero dijo que agradecía la oportunidad de debatir ahora con Bolsonaro frente a frente.“Podemos comparar el Brasil que él construyó y el Brasil que construimos nosotros”, dijo. “Mañana comienza la campaña”.Antiguo obrero metalúrgico y líder sindical que estudió hasta quinto grado, Da Silva dirigió Brasil durante su auge en la primera década del siglo. Luego fue condenado por cargos de corrupción después de dejar el cargo y pasó 580 días en prisión. El año pasado, el Supremo Tribunal Federal anuló esas condenas, al dictaminar que el juez de sus casos era parcial, y los votantes apoyaron al hombre conocido simplemente como Lula.Los dos hombres son los políticos más prominentes —y polarizantes— del país. La izquierda brasileña ve a Bolsonaro como una amenaza peligrosa para la democracia del país y su posición en la escena mundial, mientras que los conservadores del país ven a Da Silva como un exconvicto que fue parte central de un vasto esquema de corrupción que ayudó a corromper las instituciones de Brasil.Da Silva, de 76 años, propone a los votantes un plan para aumentar los impuestos a los ricos a fin de ampliar los servicios para los pobres, incluido un aumento al salario mínimo y alimento y vivienda para más personas.Simpatizantes del Partido de los Trabajadores de Da Silva reaccionando a los resultados electorales en Brasilia, el domingo.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesDa Silva ha hecho su campaña con promesas amplias para un futuro mejor, que incluye el compromiso de que los brasileños disfruten de tres comidas al día. Sus mítines se han apoyado mucho en su imagen de hombre común, con bastantes referencias a la cerveza, la cachaza y la picaña, el corte de carne más famoso de Brasil.Bolsonaro, de 67 años, ha basado su campaña en proteger las tradiciones conservadoras de Brasil de lo que califica como amenazas de las élites de izquierda. Su lema de campaña fue “Dios, familia, patria y libertad”, y prometió luchar contra cosas como la legalización de las drogas, el aborto legalizado, los derechos de las personas transgénero y las restricciones a la libertad de religión y de expresión.Además, Bolsonaro quiere aumentar aún más el acceso a las armas de fuego, repitiendo en su discurso de campaña que “las personas armadas nunca serán esclavizadas”. Uno de sus principales logros durante su primer mandato fue el aumento vertiginoso de la posesión de armas.Para enfrentar la amplia brecha que mostraban las encuestas, Bolsonaro amplió recientemente los programas de bienestar social para las familias pobres y se comprometió a continuar con esas políticas durante su segundo mandato.Bolsonaro también ha dicho que quiere vender la compañía petrolera estatal de Brasil, facilitar la explotación minera en la selva amazónica y seguir reduciendo las regulaciones de la industria. Muchas empresas han acogido con agrado el enfoque de libre mercado de Bolsonaro, pero ha provocado un aumento de la destrucción medioambiental.Simpatizantes del presidente Jair Bolsonaro festejando en Brasilia, el domingo.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesLa elección podría tener importantes consecuencias para la mayor selva tropical del mundo. Aunque Bolsonaro ha dicho que tomará medidas enérgicas contra las violaciones al medio ambiente, ha recortado los fondos y el personal de los organismos encargados de hacer cumplir las leyes medioambientales, al tiempo que ha puesto en duda las estadísticas que muestran la destrucción de la selva durante su primer mandato.Da Silva hizo campaña con la promesa de erradicar la minería y la tala ilegales, y dijo que presionaría a los agricultores para que utilizaran las zonas de la selva que ya habían sido taladas.La elección de Da Silva ampliaría una serie de victorias de la izquierda en toda América Latina, alimentada por una ola de reacción contra los gobernantes en el poder. Si es elegido, seis de los siete países más grandes de la región habrán escogido líderes de izquierda desde 2018.El primer mandato de Bolsonaro ha estado marcado por la agitación, incluidos enfrentamientos con los tribunales, escándalos de corrupción y una pandemia que mató a más personas que en cualquier otro lugar, excepto Estados Unidos. Pero lo que ha alarmado a muchos brasileños y a la comunidad internacional han sido sus insinuaciones de que no abandonará el poder si no gana.El año pasado, Bolsonaro dijo a sus partidarios que había tres resultados en las elecciones: gana, lo matan o lo arrestan. Luego añadió: “Díganle a los bastardos que nunca seré apresado”.Bolsonaro lleva años poniendo en duda la seguridad del sistema de votación electrónica de Brasil, a pesar de que no ha habido pruebas de un fraude generalizado en el sistema desde que Brasil empezó a usarlo a finales de los años noventa.Cuatro días antes de la votación del domingo, su partido político publicó un documento de dos páginas en el que afirmaba, sin pruebas, que algunos trabajadores y contratistas del gobierno tenían el “poder absoluto de manipular los resultados electorales sin dejar huella”. Los funcionarios electorales respondieron que las afirmaciones “son falsas y deshonestas” y “un claro intento de obstaculizar y trastocar” las elecciones.Un día después, en el debate final antes de la votación del domingo, se le preguntó a Bolsonaro si aceptaría los resultados de las elecciones. No respondió.Inspección, prueba y sellado de máquinas de votación electrónicas en São Paulo, el mes pasado.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesFlávia Milhorance More

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      Bolsonaro Outperforms Polls and Forces Runoff Against Lula in Brazil’s Presidential Election

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      The two political titans will face off again later this month in a race widely seen as a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies.RIO DE JANEIRO — For months, pollsters and analysts had said that President Jair Bolsonaro was doomed. He faced a wide and unwavering deficit in Brazil’s high-stakes presidential race, and in recent weeks, the polls had suggested he could even lose in the first round, ending his presidency after just one term.Instead, it was Mr. Bolsonaro who was celebrating. While the challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president, finished the night ahead, Mr. Bolsonaro far outperformed forecasts and sent the race to a runoff.Mr. da Silva received 48.4 percent of the votes, and Mr. Bolsonaro 43.23 percent, with 99.87 percent of the ballots counted, according to Brazil’s elections agency. Mr. da Silva needed to exceed 50 percent to be elected president in the first round.They will face off on Oct. 30 in what is widely regarded as the most important vote in decades for Latin America’s largest nation.That is partly because of the starkly different visions the two men set forth for this country of 217 million people, and partly because Brazil faces a host of challenges, including environmental threats, rising hunger, a sputtering economy and a deeply polarized population.The former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking after election results were announced on Sunday. Mr. da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro will face each other in a runoff later this month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesBut the election will also be widely watched in Brazil and abroad because it is seen as a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies. For months, Mr. Bolsonaro has criticized the nation’s electronic voting machines as rife with fraud — without any evidence — and has suggested that the only way he would lose is if the election is rigged.Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters late Sunday that he “overcame the lies” in the polls and that he felt he now had an advantage in the second round. Even with the positive results, he also suggested there could have been fraud, saying he would wait for the military to check the results. “Our system is not 100 percent ironclad,” he said. “There’s always the possibility of something abnormal happening in a fully computerized system.”Mr. Bolsonaro had claimed for months that the polls were underestimating his support, using his enormous rallies as evidence. Yet, virtually every poll showed him behind. On Sunday, it was clear that he was right. He performed better in all of Brazil’s 27 states than what Ipec, one of Brazil’s biggest polling firms, had predicted a day before the election, exceeding the projections by at least 8 percentage points in 10 states.Pollsters appeared to misjudge the strength of conservative candidates across the country. Governors and lawmakers supported by Mr. Bolsonaro also outperformed polls, winning many of their races on Sunday.Cláudio Castro, the right-wing governor of Rio de Janeiro state, was re-elected in a landslide, with 58 percent of votes, 11 percentage points more than Ipec’s projection. At least seven of Mr. Bolsonaro’s former ministers were also elected to Congress, including his former environment minister, who oversaw skyrocketing deforestation in the Amazon, and his former health minister, who was widely criticized for Brazil’s delay in buying vaccines during the pandemic.Antonio Lavareda, the president of Ipespe, another top polling company, defended his firm’s research, pointing out that it had predicted Mr. da Silva would finish with 49 percent, versus the 48 percent he received. Yet Ipespe also predicted Mr. Bolsonaro would receive 35 percent of the vote, more than 8 percentage points below his actual support. The poll’s margin of error was 3 percentage points. (That trend played out across the polls; they were nearly accurate on Mr. da Silva’s support, but far off on Mr. Bolsonaro’s.)Mr. Lavareda speculated that many voters who had said they would vote for less popular candidates had switched to Mr. Bolsonaro — or that they had lied to the pollsters.Outside Mr. Bolsonaro’s home in a rich, beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro, his supporters gathered to celebrate, dancing and drinking out of plastic cups of beer. Many were wearing the bright yellow jerseys of Brazil’s national soccer team, which has become a sort of uniform for many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters. (The president wore one to vote, over what appeared to be a flak jacket or protective vest.)“We expected he would have an advantage of 70 percent” of the votes, said Silvana Maria Lenzir, 65, a retiree with stickers of Mr. Bolsonaro’s face covering her chest. “Polls do not reflect reality.”President Jair Bolsonaro at a rally in Campinas, São Paulo state, last month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesStill, over the next four weeks, Mr. Bolsonaro will have to make up ground on Mr. da Silva, who held the top spot on Sunday. The right-wing president is trying to avoid becoming the first incumbent to lose his re-election bid since the start of Brazil’s modern democracy in 1988.At the same time, Mr. da Silva is trying to complete a stunning political revival that years ago had seemed unthinkable.While Mr. da Silva ended the night as the front-runner, his speech to supporters took on a somber tone. But he said he welcomed the chance to now debate Mr. Bolsonaro one-on-one.“We can compare the Brazil he built and the Brazil we built,” he said. “Tomorrow the campaign starts.”A former metalworker and union leader with a fifth-grade education, Mr. da Silva led Brazil during its boom in the first decade of the century. He was then convicted on corruption charges after he left office and spent 580 days in prison. Last year, the Supreme Court threw out those charges, ruling the judge in his cases was biased, and voters have since rallied behind the man known simply as Lula.The two men are the country’s most prominent — and polarizing — politicians. The left in Brazil views Mr. Bolsonaro as a dangerous threat to the nation’s democracy and its standing on the world stage, while the country’s conservatives see Mr. da Silva as an ex-convict who was a central part of a vast corruption scheme that helped rot Brazil’s institutions. Mr. da Silva, 76, is pitching voters on a plan to raise taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, including widening the social safety net, increasing the minimum wage and feeding and housing more people.Supporters of Mr. da Silva’s Workers’ Party reacting to election results in Brasília, on Sunday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. da Silva has built his campaign around broad promises for a better future, including a pledge that all Brazilians should be able to enjoy three meals a day. His rallies have also heavily leaned on his Everyman image, with plenty of references to beer, cachaça and picanha, Brazil’s most famous cut of meat.Mr. Bolsonaro, 67, has made his campaign about protecting Brazil’s conservative traditions from what he says are threats from leftist elites. He has made his campaign slogan “God, family, homeland and liberty,” and he has vowed to fight against things like legalized drugs, legalized abortion, transgender rights and restrictions on freedom of religion and free speech. Mr. Bolsonaro wants to further increase access to firearms, repeating in his stump speech that “armed people will never be enslaved.” One of his main accomplishments during his first term was soaring gun ownership.Facing a wide gap in polls, Mr. Bolsonaro recently expanded social welfare for poor families, and he has pledged to continue those policies during his second term.Mr. Bolsonaro has also said he wants to sell Brazil’s state-owned oil company, make it easier to mine in the Amazon rainforest and continue to reduce regulations on industry. Many businesses have welcomed Mr. Bolsonaro’s free-market approach, but it has led to soaring environmental destruction.Supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro cheering in Brasília, on Sunday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesThe election could be consequential for the world’s largest rainforest. While Mr. Bolsonaro has said he would crack down on environmental violations, he has cut funding and staffing for the agencies tasked with enforcing environmental laws, while casting doubt on statistics that show the destruction of the forest during his first term.Mr. da Silva campaigned on a promise to eradicate illegal mining and logging, and said he would push farmers to use areas of the forest that had already been cleared.Mr. da Silva’s election would extend a string of leftist victories across Latin America, fueled by a wave of anti-incumbent backlash. If elected, six of the region’s seven largest countries will have chosen leftist leaders since 2018.Mr. Bolsonaro’s first term has been marked by turmoil, including clashes with the courts, corruption scandals and a pandemic that killed more people than anywhere other than the United States. But it has been his suggestions that he won’t relinquish power if he is voted that has alarmed many Brazilians and the international community.Last year, Mr. Bolsonaro told his supporters there were three outcomes to the election: He wins, he is killed or he is arrested. He then added, “Tell the bastards I’ll never be arrested.”Mr. Bolsonaro has questioned Brazil’s electronic voting machines for years, despite the fact that there has been no evidence of widespread fraud in the system since Brazil began using it in the late 1990s.Four days before Sunday’s vote, his political party released a two-page document that claimed, without evidence, that some government employees and contractors had the “absolute power to manipulate election results without leaving a trace.” Election officials called those claims “false and dishonest” and “a clear attempt to hinder and disrupt” the election.A day later, at the final debate before Sunday’s vote, Mr. Bolsonaro was asked directly if he would accept the election’s results. He did not answer.Inspecting, testing and sealing electronic voting machines in São Paulo, last month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesFlávia Milhorance More

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      Your Monday Briefing: Indonesia’s Stadium Tragedy

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      Plus Brazil votes in national elections and China wrestles with Covid fatigue.Soccer fans carried an injured man away from the stadium.Yudha Prabowo/Associated PressAn Indonesian stadium tragedyAt least 125 people died when soccer fans rushed the field after a professional soccer match in Malang, Indonesia, on Saturday. Many were trampled.The police fired tear gas into the tightly packed crowds, leading to a stampede. Survivors said that the gas was fired indiscriminately into the stands, forcing the overcapacity crowd to rush for the exits. Many are angry at the police response, which observers said had made the situation worse.“If there wasn’t any tear gas shot into the stands, there would have not been any casualties,” one man said, adding that people had “panicked” and rushed to the field to save themselves. When he tries to sleep, he said, he still hears people screaming.Reaction: Rights organizations condemned the use of tear gas, which is prohibited by FIFA, soccer’s global governing body. One policing expert said that using tear gas, which is designed to disperse crowds, in secure areas where people have nowhere to go is “incredibly, incredibly dangerous.”Analysis: The combination of large crowds and aggressive policing can prove disastrous, writes Rory Smith, my colleague who covers soccer, in an analysis. When tragedies occur, he writes, “they tend to be the consequence not of fan violence but of failures of policing, security and crowd management.”Background: Soccer violence has long been a problem for Indonesia, where violent rivalries between major teams are common. Worldwide, Saturday’s match was among the deadliest episodes in the history of the sport. After a decade of overlapping crises, Brazilians lined up to cast votes yesterday. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBrazil votes in national electionsBrazilians cast votes yesterday in the country’s most consequential election in decades. Here are live updates.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president once imprisoned amid a corruption scandal, is seeking to oust Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right populist president who has questioned the election’s integrity and has long trailed in the polls. (It’s basically a two-man race, although nine other people are on the ballot.) The State of the WarAnnexation Push: After Moscow’s proxies conducted a series of sham referendums in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, President Vladimir V. Putin declared the four territories to be part of Russia. Western leaders, including President Biden in the United States, denounced the annexation as illegal.Retreat From Key City: Russian forces withdrew from the strategically important city of Lyman, in Donetsk Province, on Oct. 1. The retreat was a significant setback for Moscow, coming just a day after Mr. Putin declared the region to be Russian territory.U.S. Military Aid: The Pentagon seems to be preparing to overhaul how the United States and its allies train and equip the Ukrainian military, reflecting what officials say is the Biden administration’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine in the war.Russia’s Draft: The Kremlin has acknowledged that its new military draft is rife with problems, as protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have left the country.The next president will face an economic crisis, surging Amazon deforestation and lingering questions over the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies. An alarming question now hangs over the vote: Will Bolsonaro accept the results?Context: Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the security of Brazil’s electronic voting system for months. On the eve of the election, his party did so again. He has, in effect, said that the only way he would lose is if the election were stolen from him.Climate: The future of the Amazon rainforest may be at stake. Deforestation of the world’s largest rainforest has hit 15-year highs under Bolsonaro, who has weakened environmental protections and wants the rainforest opened up to mining, ranching and agriculture.Pakistani farmers tried to salvage what is left from a cotton field.Kiana Hayeri for The New York TimesPakistan’s floods worsen debtsPakistan’s recent, record-shattering floods have submerged its fields and its small farmers deeper into debt with their landlords.Many are in sharecropping arrangements and already owed hundreds or thousands of dollars. Landlords offer farmers loans to buy seeds and fertilizer each planting season. In exchange, farmers cultivate their fields and earn a small cut of the harvest, a portion of which goes toward repaying the loan.Now, their summer harvests are in ruins. Unless the water recedes, they will not be able to plant the wheat they harvest each spring. Even if they can, the land is certain to produce less after being damaged by the floodwaters.Details: One 14-year-old recently waded through waist-deep water filled with snakes to pick cotton. “It was our only source of livelihood,” she said. In the hardest-hit regions, where the floods drowned villages, authorities warn that the waters may not fully recede for months.Analysis: As extreme weather events become increasingly common, the cycle is worsening. Pakistan’s floods were especially cataclysmic because of a combination of heavy glacier melt and record monsoon rains, which scientists say were both intensified by climate change.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificLiu Jingyao filed a civil suit against Richard Liu. Lawyers said the parties had agreed to “set aside their differences” in order to avoid further pain and suffering. Caroline Yang for The New York TimesRichard Liu, a Chinese billionaire, reached a settlement with Liu Jingyao, a former University of Minnesota student who had accused him of rape. The case has been seen as a landmark in China’s struggling #MeToo movement.North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the ocean on Saturday, the country’s fourth test since Sunday of last week.Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled on Friday that Prayuth Chan-ocha, the prime minister who took control in a 2014 coup, can stay in power. The decision is expected to revive the pro-democracy protests that rocked Bangkok in 2020.A suicide attack in Kabul on Friday killed at least 19 people, mostly young female students. The U.S. and 14 Pacific Island nations signed a broad partnership agreement last week designed to counter China.The War in UkraineHere are live updates.Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a key Ukrainian city, one day after Vladimir Putin illegally declared control of the Donbas region. The loss further imperils the Kremlin’s grip on Donbas.Pope Francis appealed yesterday to Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to end the war.Ukraine applied to join NATO. Yesterday, nine European leaders expressed support for the bid, which is likely to face hurdles.Each day, about 10,000 Russian men are trying to cross into Georgia to flee draft orders. “I do not support the war, and I do not want to go kill Ukrainians,” one said.World NewsDamage from Hurricane Ian in Florida.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesThe death toll in Florida from Hurricane Ian grew to about 80. Burkina Faso has weathered its second coup in ten months. Yesterday, the army officer who seized power in January conceded that he too had been ousted by mutinying soldiers.Uganda is racing to control a deadly Ebola outbreak.Venezuela and Iran released American prisoners over the weekend.What Else Is HappeningIran’s long economic decline is fueling a widespread protest movement, which continues despite heavy crackdowns.Nick Kyrgios, the Australian tennis star, is set to face a charge of assaulting a former girlfriend.“Saturday Night Live” kicked off its new season. Eight veteran cast members have left the show this year.A Morning ReadA line at a Covid testing site in Beijing in June.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesMy colleague Vivian Wang, a Times correspondent in China, described the grinding reality of life under Covid. People schedule lunch breaks around completing mandatory tests and buy second freezers to stock up on groceries for future lockdowns.“The disruptive becomes typical; the once-unimaginable, reality,” she writes.ARTS AND IDEASAsia beckons againSeveral Asian destinations are loosening their Covid restrictions on international travel. Our Travel desk looked at how four destinations were preparing for the return of tourism.Kyoto, one of Japan’s most-visited cities, wants to bring back tourists but avoid Instagram-driven excesses. (“Kyoto isn’t a tourist city, it’s a city that values tourism,” the mayor said.) Koh Tao, a Thai island, is trying to balance tourism with an environmental focus. On the edge of Delhi, a contemporary art scene and a burgeoning cosmopolitan class are taking shape. And rural South Korea offers serene, unhurried nature.The Travel desk also asked five photographers who live in Asia to share their favorite foods from India, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. And they offer advice on budget travel, translation apps and some great new hotels.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChris Simpson for The New York TimesMini bibingkas — Filipino coconut cakes — are fluffy and perfect for sharing, Ligaya Mishan writes.What to ReadRead your way through Rome.What to WatchIn “Bros,” a gay romantic comedy, a man who has sworn off relationships finds himself falling in love.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: In the know (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. I am now officially the lead writer of this newsletter! If you have feedback or suggestions, I’d welcome them. Please write to me: amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Hurricane Ian.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Brazilians Vote for Their Next President

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      Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesLula, who is universally known by that name alone, has built his pitch around raising taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor. Bolsonaro has campaigned on protecting conservative values, under the slogan “God, family, homeland and liberty.” More

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      A choice between two heavyweights

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      Brazil votes for president today. Jack Nicas, the bureau chief there, explains what’s at stake.Brazilians are voting for president today in an election between two political heavyweights: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president. To help you understand the election, I spoke to Jack Nicas, The Times’s Brazil bureau chief, who lives in Rio de Janeiro.Claire Moses: Hi Jack. This is quite an election.Jack Nicas: It is. We reporters often say any given election is a big deal — but everyone here seems to agree that this one really is Brazil’s biggest vote in decades. Bolsonaro and Lula are perhaps the most prominent names in the modern history of Brazilian politics, and they come with a lot of baggage. They’re either loved or hated. People aren’t usually in-between on either.Bolsonaro is a right-wing populist who has divided the country. He has fervent supporters on the right, and the left just abhors him and wants him out. Lula led Brazil during a time of tremendous growth, but then he served time in prison on corruption charges, which were later thrown out. He’s been leading in the polls.Is it mostly political junkies who are obsessed with the election — or ordinary people, too?It’s everyone. People are wearing their political colors visibly. If you see people wearing yellow and green, the colors of the Brazilian flag, you can probably bet that they’re Bolsonaro supporters. On the other side, people are wearing red, the color of the left-wing Workers’ Party, which is Lula’s party. People are eager to show off their political leanings and happy to debate them. The campaign is kind of in-your-face that way.Beach towels are another example. You see vendors selling these towels with enormous prints of Lula’s or Bolsonaro’s face. Some of the vendors keep track of sales and post them on a sign — a sort of informal presidential poll.There have been huge rallies across the country. Just down the street from me here in the Copacabana neighborhood, thousands of people gathered last month to celebrate Brazil’s 200 years of independence. In name it was a national celebration, but in practice it was a political rally for Bolsonaro. To avoid confrontations, Lula asked his supporters to attend a different rally on another day.Towels for sale with the candidates’ faces.Ernesto Benavides/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe fact that people wear the national colors to support Bolsonaro makes me wonder about soccer jerseys. Will people still wear the iconic jerseys of Brazil’s national team even if they don’t support Bolsonaro?The national team has been the pride of Brazil for so long. But now its jersey is also a symbol of Bolsonaro supporters. How will Brazil cope with that during the upcoming World Cup in November, weeks after such a contentious election?You’ve also reported on Bolsonaro’s antidemocratic moves, such as casting doubt on the country’s voting system, despite no evidence of fraud. American readers might see similarities with Donald Trump, with whom Bolsonaro has forged close ties. Is the state of democracy as big a topic in Brazil as it is in the U.S.?It’s one of the biggest questions overhanging this election (along with a sputtering economy, rising hunger and the destruction of the Amazon). People saw what happened in the U.S. in 2020, and they know about the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. On the left, people are worried about a similar situation here because of Bolsonaro’s rhetoric. He was one of the last world leaders to recognize Joe Biden as the winner of the election.Bolsonaro has said repeatedly that he sees three possible outcomes in this election for him: He wins, he’s put in jail or he’s dead. Those are aggressive words that worry a lot of people. From our reporting, it appears that institutions like the courts and Congress are prepared to stand up to an election challenge by Bolsonaro. And the armed forces, which had also been questioning the voting systems, now also don’t seem to have any interest in backing a coup.The bigger threat may be that Bolsonaro’s supporters take to the streets if he doesn’t accept a loss. Many Bolsonaro supporters believe that Lula’s team and election officials are set on rigging the election. That belief doesn’t have any basis in the truth, but years of false claims by Bolsonaro have persuaded a large portion of the population.What about Lula’s campaign strategy?In a way, Lula’s campaign has been very Biden-esque. Even though Lula is much more of a leftist than Biden, he has also tried to build a broad coalition and appeal to the center. And like Biden, given his time as vice president, Lula has already spent eight years in the presidential offices. He’s a well-known face, and he’s trying to play it safe against an unpopular incumbent.We should know the result, and whether there will be a runoff, around 7 p.m. Eastern tonight. Just because Lula is leading in the polls doesn’t mean something unpredictable can’t happen here.Jack Nicas leads The Times’s coverage of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. Brazilians were fascinated by his efforts to translate the Portuguese words “tchutchuca” and “imbrochável” in his election coverage — two slightly vulgar words that each had their campaign moments.For moreBrazil’s Supreme Court has expanded its power to counter Bolsonaro’s antidemocratic stances. But some experts are worried the court itself has become repressive.If Bolsonaro loses and his supporters react violently, how will police respond? The Times’s Amanda Taub looks at the possibilities.Lula is trying to complete a stunning political comeback.You can follow election results here.NEWSHurricane IanDestruction in Bonito Beach, Fla., on Friday.Jason Andrew for The New York TimesHurricane Ian’s death toll in Florida climbed, with at least 35 people killed. Officials in Florida’s hardest-hit county delayed telling people to flee. Now they’re encountering mass death.Other Big StoriesRussian forces retreated from Lyman, a key city in eastern Ukraine, one day after Vladimir Putin illegally declared control of the region.At least 170 people died after a soccer match in Indonesia as the police tried to quell a riot with tear gas. Many people were trampled.Venezuela released seven Americans after Biden agreed to grant clemency to two nephews of the country’s first lady.Congress members of both parties are experiencing a surge in threats. In the months since the Jan. 6 attack, they have faced stalking, vandalism and assaults.China’s Covid rules are becoming more entrenched, dictating the patterns of daily life.The recent flooding in Pakistan has plunged farmers further into debt with their landlords.“Saturday Night Live” kicked off its new season with a cold open that was also a commentary on the expectations it faces this year.FROM OPINIONWant less inflation? Try a consumption tax on the rich, Ezra Klein says.Putin is less a guilt-ridden Raskolnikov than a vengeful Medea, Maureen Dowd writes.When paying for an elite private school gets you into an elite college, how dare we call American education a meritocracy? Sophie Callcott asks.Liz Truss, Britain’s new prime minister, is floundering because she has nostalgic answers to modern problems, Ross Douthat argues.“It is the role of faith to counter evil.” Pinchas Goldschmidt, Moscow’s former chief rabbi, on his first Yom Kippur in exile.The Sunday question: Could Iran’s protests bring down its government?Outrage over a woman’s death in police custody, an economic crisis and Iran’s out-of-touch clerical leaders have created a serious legitimacy crisis, Sanam Vakil writes in Foreign Affairs. The Guardian’s Jason Burke is doubtful; dissent appears less widespread than in 1979, when Iranians last ousted their government, and the regime remains strong enough to crush it.MORNING READSRabbi Delphine Horvilleur, center left, in black, at a bar mitzvah.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesMusing on mortality: A feminist French rabbi is drawing atheists, Christians and Jews to her talks on death.Well: Can supplements replace cranberry juice as a U.T.I. treatment? Experts aren’t sure.Nuclear fashion: Climate consciousness and abortion activism are on the runway at Paris Fashion Week.Sunday routine: The immigrant rights leader Murad Awawdeh greets arrivals from Texas at the Port Authority or he’s with his family.Advice from Wirecutter: Pay attention to iPhone permissions.A Times classic: Facial exercises to make you look younger.BOOKSMichela ButtignolRomance novels: Finding wonderful books that bring to mind old favorites is one of the genre’s greatest pleasures.By the Book: The Swedish novelist Fredrik Backman has learned to read while distracted.Times best sellers: “Dreamland,” by Nicholas Sparks, is a No. 1 debut on the hardcover fiction best-seller list, which also includes the latest from Richard Osman, Elizabeth Strout and Andrew Sean Greer. See all our lists.THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINERuth Ossai for The New York TimesOn the cover: Whoopi Goldberg refuses to hold anything back.“Stolen babies”: Thousands of Spanish children were taken from hospitals and sold to wealthy Catholic families. This is Ana Belén Pintado’s story.Recommendation: The end of life is often invisible. There’s another way.Eat: These little coconut cakes are fluffy and perfect for sharing.Read the full issue.THE WEEK AHEADWhat to Watch ForThe Nobel Prizes will be announced this week, including literature on Thursday and peace on Friday.Canada’s Quebec province will hold elections tomorrow. François Legault, the incumbent premier, is expected to win by appealing to nationalism — without advocating for independence.The 2022 Miss USA Pageant is tomorrow. It will honor Cheslie Kryst, the 2019 winner who died in January.The Australian tennis player Nick Kyrgios is set to face a charge of assaulting a former girlfriend.The government will release new monthly jobs numbers on Friday.What to Cook This WeekJim Wilson/The New York TimesFall seems to have arrived in New York, and Emily Weinstein has ideas for autumnal dishes this week: “I made a crumble after I went apple picking and brought home a ridiculous (some might say crazy) number of apples, and I simmered kabocha squash with scallions, too.” You can also use squash for soup; this recipe is amazing.NOW TIME TO PLAYHere’s a clue from the Sunday crossword:64 Across: Candy bar whose name is an exclamationTake the news quiz to see how well you followed the week’s headlines.Here’s today’s Spelling Bee. Here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More