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    Explosions Outside Brazil’s Supreme Court Leave 1 Dead

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    Two blasts, coming 20 seconds apart, rocked an area of Brasília near the heart of the government’s offices.Two explosions near Brazil’s Supreme Court in the nation’s capital, Brasília, left at least one person dead on Wednesday.The explosions, which were 20 seconds apart, happened around 7:30 p.m. local time, Celina Leão, vice governor of the Federal District, said at a news conference on Wednesday evening.The first explosion occurred in a car in a nearby parking lot, Ms. Leão said. Soon after, another explosion occurred in the plaza outside Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was not at the site at the time of the explosion.The suspect had attempted, but failed, to enter the building housing the Supreme Court, Ms. Leão said. Images from the scene showed the body of a casualty in the plaza, which is known as Three Powers Square. Firefighters confirmed that one person had been killed, although they had not yet removed and analyzed the body because of concerns over additional unexploded devices.Military police and anti-bomb squads were sweeping the area.This is a developing story. More

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      Así comenzó el ataque en Brasilia

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      Mientras el autobús se dirigía desde el corazón agrícola de Brasil a la capital, Andrea Barth sacó su teléfono para preguntar a sus compañeros de viaje, uno por uno, qué pensaban hacer cuando llegaran.“Derrocar a los ladrones”, respondió un hombre.“Sacar al ‘Nueve Dedos’“, dijo otro, en referencia al presidente de izquierda de Brasil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien hace décadas perdió parte de un dedo en un accidente de trabajo sucedido en una fábrica.Mientras los pasajeros describían sus planes de violencia, más de cien autobuses llenos de simpatizantes de Jair Bolsonaro, el expresidente de extrema derecha, también descendían en Brasilia, la capital.Video posted on social media shows dozens of supporters of Jair Bolsonaro arriving in Brasília by bus.Jakelyne Loiola, via TwitterUn día después, el 8 de enero, una turba pro-Bolsonaro desató un caos que conmocionó al país y que dio la vuelta al mundo. Los agitadores invadieron y saquearon el Congreso, el Supremo Tribunal Federal y el palacio de gobierno del país, con la intención, según muchos de ellos, de incitar a los líderes militares a derrocar a Lula, quien había asumido el cargo una semana antes.El ataque caótico tuvo un parecido inquietante con el asalto al Capitolio de Estados Unidos el 6 de enero de 2021: cientos de manifestantes de derecha, alegando que una elección estuvo amañada, entraron a los pasillos del poder.Ambos episodios impactaron a dos de las democracias más grandes del mundo, y casi dos años después del ataque de Estados Unidos, el asalto del domingo de hace un par de semanas mostró que el extremismo de extrema derecha, inspirado por líderes antidemocráticos e impulsado por teorías de la conspiración, sigue siendo una grave amenaza.Lula y las autoridades judiciales actuaron con rapidez para recuperar el control y detuvieron a más de 1150 alborotadores, desalojaron los campamentos donde se refugiaron, buscaron a sus financiadores y organizadores y, el viernes de la semana pasada, abrieron una investigación sobre cómo Bolsonaro pudo haberlos inspirado.The New York Times habló con las autoridades, servidores públicos, testigos y participantes en las protestas y revisó decenas de videos y cientos de publicaciones en las redes sociales para reconstruir lo sucedido. El resultado de la investigación muestra que una turba superó con rapidez y sin esfuerzo a la policía.También muestra que algunos agentes de la policía no solo no actuaron contra los alborotadores, sino que parecían simpatizar con ellos, ya que se dedicaron a tomar fotos mientras la turba destruía el Congreso. Un hombre que fue a ver qué estaba pasando dijo que la policía simplemente le indicó que se dirigiera a los disturbios.El desequilibrio entre los manifestantes y la policía sigue siendo uno de los puntos centrales de la investigación de las autoridades y las entrevistas con los agentes de seguridad han generado acusaciones de negligencia grave e incluso de complicidad activa en el caos. Tras los disturbios, las autoridades federales suspendieron al gobernador responsable de la protección de los edificios públicos y detuvieron a dos altos funcionarios de seguridad que trabajaban para él. More

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      How a Mob Tried to Oust Brazil’s Lula

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      As the bus made its way from Brazil’s agricultural heartland to the capital, Andrea Barth pulled out her phone to ask fellow passengers, one by one, what they intended to do once they arrived.“Overthrow the thieves,” one man replied.“Take out ‘Nine-Finger,’” said another, referring to Brazil’s leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who lost part of a finger decades ago in a factory accident.“You might escape a lightning strike,” another man said, as if confronting Mr. Lula himself. “But you won’t escape me.”As the passengers described their plans for violence, more than a hundred other buses bulging with supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president, were also descending on Brasília, the capital.Video posted on social media shows dozens of Bolsonaro supporters arriving in Brasília by bus.Jakelyne Loiola, via TwitterA day later, on Jan. 8, a pro-Bolsonaro mob unleashed mayhem that shocked the country and was broadcast around the world. Rioters invaded and ransacked Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices, intending, many of them said, to spur military leaders to topple Mr. Lula, who had taken office just a week earlier.The chaotic attack bore an unsettling resemblance to the Jan. 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol: Hundreds of right-wing protesters, claiming an election was rigged, stomping through the halls of power.Each episode rattled one of the world’s largest democracies, and almost two years to the day after the U.S. attack, last Sunday’s assault showed that far-right extremism, inspired by antidemocratic leaders and fed by conspiracy theories, remains a grave threat.Mr. Lula and judicial authorities have moved swiftly to reassert control, arresting more than 1,150 rioters, clearing the encampments that gave them refuge and searching for their funders and organizers.But questions continue to swirl about how a relatively small band of unarmed protesters, who had largely publicized their plans, were able so easily to storm the country’s most important government buildings.The New York Times spoke with law enforcement, government officials, eyewitnesses and protesters, and reviewed dozens of videos and hundreds of social media posts to piece together what happened. The reporting shows that a mob, led by what appeared to be a relatively small group of extremists bent on destruction, swiftly and effortlessly overwhelmed a drastically outnumbered police presence.It also shows that some officers not only failed to take any action against rioters, but, in at least one case, waved a spectator toward Congress.The imbalance between protesters and the police remains a central focus of the authorities’ investigation, and interviews with security officials yielded accusations of gross negligence and even active complicity in the mayhem. After the riot, federal authorities suspended the governor responsible for protecting the buildings and ordered the arrest of two top security officials who worked for him. More

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      Video Shows Brazil Rioters Breaching Inadequate Security

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      It was an unfair fight in front of Brazil’s Congress. On one side of a metal barrier were a few dozen police officers, some armed with pepper spray, others with clubs. On the other was a rapidly growing mob of more than 1,000 angry protesters, falsely convinced that the presidential election had been stolen and dead-set on doing something about it.At 2:42 p.m. on Sunday, almost in unison, protesters at one end of the street easily pulled down the metal barrier, while at the other end, protesters pushed right through a plastic roadblock, according to a video obtained by The New York Times. A few police officers sprayed chemical agents, but within seconds, the crowd was surging through.The moment was the start of a riot that left Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices ransacked and the nation’s democracy under its worst threat in decades. The previously unpublished video of the moment lays bare the woefully inadequate security at some of the nation’s most important institutions, which is now at the center of the wider investigation into how the mayhem could have occurred, despite ample warning signs.Federal authorities have laid much of the blame on the handful of men who run the federal district that includes Brazil’s capital, Brasília. They accuse the district’s governor and security chief of being either negligent or, worse, complicit, and they have already taken action against them.Police inspecting the damage to the Supreme Court on Tuesday in Brasília, the capital.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesIn the hours after the riot, Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice, suspended Ibaneis Rocha, the district’s governor, from his post for at least 90 days. Mr. Moraes then approved an arrest warrant from the federal police for the district’s security chief, Anderson Torres, as well as its police chief, Fabio Augusto Vieira. In votes on Wednesday, the Supreme Court confirmed both orders.Mr. Moraes, a controversial figure who has been criticized for overstepping his authority, said evidence showed the men knew that protesters were planning violence, but did little to stop it.Neither he nor other federal authorities have disclosed that specific evidence. Instead, he cited the inadequate number of security forces and the fact that roughly 100 buses of protesters were allowed to enter Brasília with little monitoring.What is clear is that the federal government largely ceded responsibility to the district to protect the capital in the face of protests that, according to a slew of social media posts in the days prior, appeared likely to turn violent. The federal government pays the district roughly $2 billion a year to provide security, and the district had successfully protected the capital during several large, tense political events in recent months.A four-page security plan obtained by The Times showed that, during the planned protests on Sunday, much of the responsibility for protecting the federal government’s buildings fell on the district police.Understand the Riots in Brazil’s CapitalThousands of rioters supporting Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president of Brazil,  stormed the nation’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices on Jan. 8.Anatomy of a Mass Attack: After Mr. Bolsonaro lost the presidential election in October, many believed that the threat of violence from his supporters would recede. Here is what went wrong.The Investigations: Authorities face several major questions as they piece together how rioters briefly seized the seats of Brazil’s government.Digital Playbook: Misinformation researchers are studying how the internet was used ahead of the riots in Brazil. Many are drawing a comparison to the Jan. 6 attack.World Leaders React: Governments in Latin America and beyond were swift to condemn the unrest. President Biden called the attack “outrageous.”The document, which was signed Friday afternoon and sent to more than a dozen top security officials in Brasília, tasked the district police to keep demonstrators out of Three Powers Plaza, which includes Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential offices, and to “maintain reinforcement of personnel” throughout the protests.But that plan did not please Flávio Dino, Brazil’s justice minister, when he heard about it on Saturday morning in a phone call with Mr. Rocha, the district governor, according to an official in Mr. Dino’s office who spoke on the condition of anonymity because officials had not yet agreed to release the details of the call.Mr. Dino did not want protesters on the national esplanade, Brazil’s version of the National Mall in Washington, a long grassy stretch that leads directly to Brazil’s most important government buildings. In response, Mr. Rocha agreed to change the plan accordingly and make the esplanade off limits, according to the official in Mr. Dino’s office.Later that night, according to the official, Mr. Dino was surprised when he saw a news article that said Mr. Rocha would let the protest go forward on the esplanade with “tranquillity and security.”Supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro stormed the presidential office in Brasília on Sunday.Eraldo Peres/Associated PressThe protests went forward, but the tranquillity and security was lacking.On Sunday, thousands of supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, the ousted far-right president, marched onto the esplanade, dressed in the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag and carrying signs that demanded a military coup and that referenced voter-fraud conspiracy theories long peddled by Mr. Bolsonaro.The district police was there, but not in full force. Authorities have not provided the precise number of police officers present on Sunday, but according to videos and eyewitness accounts, there were far fewer officers than for other recent demonstrations in the capital..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.By contrast, there were several hundred thousand people in the same spot a week earlier for the inauguration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. While those crowds were there to celebrate, rather than wreak havoc, the district deployed all of its more than 10,000 police officers, far more than were on the ground on Sunday.Why there were so few police officers is now a central question for investigators. The security plan did not list a number of officers, but instead just suggested that the police should have sufficient personnel to handle the protests.Federal authorities have pointed the finger at Mr. Torres and Mr. Vieira, the district’s security chief and police chief, who have been ordered arrested.Mr. Torres, in particular, has come under scrutiny. He was Mr. Bolsonaro’s former justice minister and started in his new post in the district on Jan. 2. He quickly replaced much of the district’s security staff, despite its recent track record of success during the elections, and then left for vacation in Florida, where Mr. Bolsonaro has also been staying in recent weeks.On the day of the protests, Mr. Torres, who was ostensibly in charge of the capital’s security, was thousands of miles away.Mr. Torres said Tuesday that he would return to Brazil to defend himself. “I have always guided my actions with ethics and legality. I believe in the Brazilian justice system and in the strength of the institutions. I am certain that the truth will prevail,” he said on Twitter. Mr. Rocha, the district governor, has now also begun to point the finger at his deputies for the security lapses.Alberto Toron, Mr. Rocha’s lawyer, said in an interview on Wednesday that the security plans were adequate, but that the security forces failed to carry them out, even suggesting that they did so deliberately.“We saw videos, for example, of police fraternizing with demonstrators,” he said. “There is a hidden hand here, which not only demobilized the police and the Army not to act, but it seems that there was an orchestration for something broader to happen.”“The governor was deceived,” he added. “He suffered a process of sabotage.”Several videos appear to show the police as indifferent to the protests. In one, a man asks a group of chatting police officers if he can walk all the way to the end of the esplanade and take a bath in the reflecting pool in front of Congress. “Everything is open today?” he asks. The police appear to respond affirmatively, and wave him in the direction of Congress.Another video shows that after protesters ascend onto the roof of Congress and break into the building, about 10 relaxed police officers watch the scene, chatting with protesters, texting and filming the scene themselves.It was not until the protesters had broken inside the government buildings that military and federal law enforcement arrived to retake control.Federal security officials in charge of protecting the presidential offices had not expected violence during the protests, and only asked for reinforcements from the Army after rioters broke inside the building, according to an Army general who spoke anonymously to discuss a sealed investigation.Federal police said late Wednesday that they had arrested 1,159 people, nearly all under the suspicion of taking part in the riots. Authorities have said in recent days that they are now turning their attention to the political and business elites who helped organize, fund and aid the riots.The actions of security officials and police officers are expected to remain a central focus of investigators in the months ahead. Brazil’s Senate plans to begin a congressional investigation next month. On Wednesday, 60 U.S. and Brazilian members of Congress released a joint statement, condemning extremism in both countries that led to attacks on their capitols.Lis Moriconi More

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      Brazil’s Authorities Race to Identify Organizers of Brasília Riot

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      With more than 700 people arrested after supporters of Jair Bolsonaro ransacked Brazil’s seats of government, the authorities began to search for those who funded and aided the rioters.A day after arresting hundreds of people over the riot at Brazil’s capital, the Brazilian authorities turned their focus on Tuesday to the political and business elites suspected of inspiring, organizing or funding the rioters, who seized the seats of government in support of the far-right former president.In the most dramatic example of that turn, prosecutors on Tuesday asked a federal court to freeze the assets of the former president, Jair Bolsonaro, on Tuesday, citing “the accountability process and the vandalism that occurred” in the capital, Brasília, on Sunday, when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked the Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices.The petition was one of several moves by the authorities that highlighting the scope of the hunt to identify the ideological, logistical and financial architects of Sunday’s chaos, the worst attack on Brazil’s institutions since a military dictatorship ended in 1985.A Supreme Court justice issued arrest warrants for two prominent security officials, stating that they were under investigation for terrorism, criminal association, violent abolition of the democratic rule of law and coup. And the attorney general’s office was expected to take action against more than 100 companies thought to have helped the protesters.The request to freeze Mr. Bolsonaro’s assets is now in the hands of a judge, but it is unclear whether the court has the legal power to block his accounts. And freezing assets, even if it were not challenged in court, could prove to be a lengthy and complex process in its own right.The justice minister, Flavio Dino, said on Tuesday that the police were already seeking arrest warrants for “people who did not come to Brasília but participated in the crime, who are organizers, financiers.”Riot police on Monday in Brasília.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesA day earlier, he said the authorities had zeroed in on companies in at least 10 states that were suspected of providing financial aid for those who took part in the attack. The attorney general’s office is also expected to ask a federal court to freeze the financial assets of more than 100 companies believed to have transported rioters to the capital or provided them with free food and shelter, according to press reports.Both Mr. Dina and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have suggested that the country’s powerful agriculture industry, which largely backed Mr. Bolsonaro in the election, played a role.“These people were there today, the agribusiness,” Mr. Lula said after the attacks, adding that “all these people will be investigated, found out, and will be punished.”Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro had camped out for weeks outside the army headquarters in Brasília, espousing the false claim that the presidential election in October was stolen, and some called for the military to step in. The military and independent experts found no credible evidence of voter fraud in the election, which was won by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president who defeated Mr. Bolsonaro and took office on Jan. 1.Mr. Bolsonaro had for years asserted, without evidence, that Brazil’s election systems were plagued by fraud, but after the October election he authorized a transition of power to Mr. Lula. Mr. Bolsonaro, who has been in the United States since before the inauguration, criticized the rioters on Sunday, saying that peaceful demonstrations were part of democracy but the “destruction and invasions of public buildings” was not.In the wake of the riot, investigators also face difficult questions about why rioters were able to enter federal government buildings so easily — and whether the authorities were blindsided, negligent or somehow complicit.Some officials have been quick to place most of the blame on Anderson Torres, who served as Mr. Bolsonaro’s justice minister before becoming the public security secretary of the Federal District, which includes Brasília.Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued warrants for the arrest of Mr. Torres and Fabio Augusto Vieira, the chief of the military police in the Federal District, who was responsible for the police forces on Sunday. Justice de Moraes, who has been accused in the past of severe overreach, wrote in his order that there were “strong indications that those investigated were colluding with a criminal association.”.Ricardo Capelli, who is temporarily in charge of security in the Federal District under an emergency decree signed by Mr. Lula on Sunday, accused Mr. Torres of “sabotaging” security in the capital.Some 599 people who were detained for questioning were released from custody.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“There is no security force without command,” Mr. Capelli told reporters on Tuesday. As soon as Mr. Torres took over on Jan. 2, Mr. Capelli said, “Chaos ensues. Coincidence? I don’t think so.”The attorney general has requested the arrest of Mr. Torres and prosecutors are asking a judge to freeze his assets, along with those of Mr. Bolsonaro and the district’s governor, Ibaneis Rocha, who was suspended from his post after the riot.As justice minister, Mr. Torres took part in attempts to undermine confidence in electronic voting machines. In a two-hour livestream on social media in July 2021, in which Mr. Bolsonaro claimed that the election process was rife with fraud, Mr. Torres stood by him and presented videos claiming to show how voting machines could be hacked.State officials have said they accepted responsibility, but have not explained why security was light, despite warnings of the possibility of violent protests.By Tuesday, the police had arrested 727 people in connection with the riots and were still questioning hundreds of others, the federal police said in a statement. Some 599 people who were detained for questioning had been released from custody.Hamilton Mourão, a former Army general who was Mr. Bolsonaro’s vice president, criticized what he called “indiscriminate detention.” The crackdown, he wrote on social media, “shows that the new government, consistent with its Marxist-Leninist roots, acts in an amateurish, inhumane and illegal manner.”Some of those who invaded federal buildings filmed themselves and each other during the riot, giving the authorities a body of evidence with which to build a case. Augusto de Arruda Botelho, national justice secretary, said police had also collected DNA samples and fingerprints from the buildings.But prosecuting many of those who took part could prove difficult, legal experts said, given the need to link defendants to specific crimes.A person’s presence at the protest camp in Brasília, or even on the avenue of the federal buildings, may not be enough to convict, said Bruno Baghin, a public defender and a law professor at the School of Public Defense of São Paulo State.“Without attributing specific conduct to each individual,” he said, prosecution cases could be “very fragile.”Flávia Milhorance More

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      ¿Qué impulsó el ataque a la capital de Brasil?

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      Durante las últimas 10 semanas, los seguidores del expresidente de extrema derecha Jair Bolsonaro habían acampado afuera de la sede del ejército brasileño, exigiendo que los militares revirtieran las elecciones presidenciales de octubre. Y, durante las últimas 10 semanas, los manifestantes encontraron poca oposición por parte del gobierno.Luego, el domingo, muchos de los ocupantes del campamento salieron de sus carpas en Brasilia, la capital del país, condujeron algunos kilómetros y, al unirse cientos de otros manifestantes, invadieron el Congreso, el Supremo Tribunal Federal y las oficinas presidenciales.Para la mañana del lunes, las autoridades estaban barriendo el campamento. Desmantelaron las carpas, retiraron pancartas y detuvieron a 1200 de los manifestantes, llevándoselos en autobuses para interrogarlos.Por qué se había permitido que un campamento que exigía un golpe militar creciera durante más de 70 días era parte de un conjunto más amplio de preguntas que los funcionarios enfrentaban el lunes, entre ellas:¿Por qué se permitió que las protestas se acercaran tanto a las sedes del poder de Brasil? ¿Y por qué las fuerzas de seguridad habían sido superadas de tal manera que multitudes de manifestantes pudieron irrumpir fácilmente en las instalaciones gubernamentales?Más de mil partidarios del expresidente Jair Bolsonaro que supuestamente participaron en los disturbios estaban detenidos en Brasilia.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEl ministro de Justicia de Brasil, Flávio Dino, indicó que varias agencias de seguridad se habían reunido el viernes para prepararse ante la posibilidad de violencia en las protestas previstas para el domingo. Pero, dijo, la estrategia de seguridad urdida en la reunión, que incluía mantener a los manifestantes alejados de los principales edificios estatales, para el domingo había sido parcialmente abandonada y había muchos menos agentes de la ley de lo previsto.“El contingente policial no fue lo que se había acordado”, dijo, y añadió que no estaba claro por qué se habían cambiado los planes.Algunos en el gobierno federal culpaban al gobernador de Brasilia, Ibaneis Rocha, y sus funcionarios, dando a entender que habían sido negligentes o cómplices en la falta de personal de las fuerzas de seguridad alrededor de las protestas.El domingo por la noche, Alexandre de Moraes, juez del Supremo Tribunal Federal, suspendió a Rocha de su cargo como gobernador durante al menos 90 días, argumentando que el levantamiento “solo podía ocurrir con el consentimiento, e incluso la participación efectiva, de las autoridades de seguridad e inteligencia”.Independientemente de los fallos de seguridad que hayan ocurrido, los disturbios del domingo dejaron al desnudo de forma sorprendente el principal desafío que enfrenta la democracia de Brasil. A diferencia de otros intentos por derrocar gobiernos en la historia de América Latina, los ataques del domingo no fueron ordenados por un solo gobernante autoritario o un ejército decidido a tomar el poder, sino que más bien fueron impulsados por una amenaza más insidiosa y arraigada: un engaño masivo.Agentes de la policía militar desmantelando un campamento utilizado por seguidores de Bolsonaro frente a una sede del ejército en Río de JaneiroDado Galdieri para The New York TimesMillones de brasileños parecen estar convencidos de que las elecciones presidenciales de octubre estuvieron amañadas en detrimento de Bolsonaro, a pesar de que las auditorias y los análisis realizados por expertos no han hallado nada de ese tipo. Dichas creencias en parte son producto de años de teorías conspirativas, afirmaciones engañosas y falsedades explícitas que Bolsonaro y sus aliados propagaron al afirmar que el sistema de votación totalmente electrónico de Brasil estaba plagado de fraude.Los partidarios de Bolsonaro han estado repitiendo las afirmaciones durante meses, y luego las ampliaron con nuevas teorías de conspiración transmitidas en chats grupales de WhatsApp y Telegram, muchos de los cuales se enfocaron en la idea de que el software de las máquinas de votación electrónica fue manipulado para hacer fraude a la elección. El domingo, los manifestantes se pararon en el techo del Congreso con una pancarta que tenía una sola exigencia: “Queremos el código fuente”.La mañana del lunes, Orlando Pinheiro Farias, de 40 años, salía del campamento de manifestantes y dijo que había ingresado a los despachos presidenciales el domingo junto a otros compañeros en busca de documentos relacionados con “las investigaciones del código fuente, que legitiman que Jair Messias Bolsonaro es el presidente de Brasil”.Recitó varias siglas gubernamentales e investigaciones secretas sobre las que había leído en internet, y luego dijo que tenía que volver a su tienda de campaña para recuperar una bandera brasileña que se había robado del edificio.Los delirios sobre las elecciones también se extendían a las explicaciones de muchos manifestantes sobre lo que había sucedido en los disturbios. Las personas que salían del campamento el lunes por la mañana, con colchones de aire enrollados, cables de extensión y taburetes, tenían un mensaje claro: los partidarios de Bolsonaro no habían saqueado los edificios. Más bien, dijeron, los que causaron el daño eran izquierdistas radicales disfrazados, empeñados en difamar a su movimiento.Trabajadores de la oficina presidencial durante la limpieza del lunesVictor Moriyama para The New York Times“¿Escuchaste alguna vez del Caballo de Troya?”, preguntó Nathanael S. Viera, de 51 años, que había viajado más de 1400 kilómetros para participar en las protestas del domingo. “Los infiltrados fueron y armaron todo y la maldita prensa le mostró a la nación brasileña que nosotros los patriotas somos vándalos”.Las escenas del domingo —manifestantes de derecha envueltos en la bandera nacional deambulando por los pasillos del poder— resultaban sorprendentemente similares a las del asalto al Capitolio de los Estados Unidos el 6 de enero, al igual que las creencias confusas que llevaron a los manifestantes en ambos países a invadir edificios federales y a filmarse mientras lo hacían.“A Donald Trump lo sacaron con una elección amañada, sin duda, y en aquel momento lo sacaron y yo dije ‘al presidente Bolsonaro lo van a derrocar’”, dijo Wanderlei Silva, de 59 años, trabajador hotelero retirado que estaba el lunes afuera del campamento.Silva hallaba sus propias similitudes entre los disturbios del domingo y los del 6 de enero de 2021. “Los demócratas armaron eso e invadieron el Capitolio”, dijo. “Igual que aquí lo armaron”.Durante mucho tiempo, Brasil se ha visto a sí mismo como un país similar a Estados Unidos: diverso y vasto, rico en recursos naturales, distribuido en una colección de estados federales y gobernado por un gobierno federal fuerte. Pero su tumultuosa historia política nunca imitó verdaderamente el sistema estadounidense, hasta los últimos años.“Sin Trump no habría Bolsonaro en Brasil. Y sin la invasión al Capitolio no habría la invasión que vimos ayer”, dijo Guga Chacra, comentarista en la mayor cadena de televisión de Brasil, quien vive en Nueva York y monitorea la política en ambos países. “El bolsonarismo intenta copiar al trumpismo y los seguidores de Bolsonaro en Brasil intenta copiar lo que hacen los seguidores de Trump en Estados Unidos”.Incluso una descripción de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2022 se lee como un resumen de las elecciones estadounidenses de 2020: un mandatario populista de extrema derecha con gusto por los insultos y tuits improvisados contra un contrincante septuagenario de izquierda que se postula con su probada trayectoria política y una promesa de unir a una nación dividida.El lunes, en las afueras del Supremo Tribunal FederalVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesPero lo que pasó después de cada elección fue distinto.Si bien el expresidente Donald Trump luchó para revertir los resultados y llamó a sus seguidores a descender al Capitolio el 6 de enero, Bolsonaro de hecho se había rendido y marchado a Florida para cuando sus votantes entraban a la fuerza a las oficinas que había ocupado alguna vez.Según dijo su esposa en redes sociales, Bolsonaro pasó parte del lunes en un hospital de Florida debido a dolores abdominales derivados de un apuñalamiento que sufrió en 2018. Bolsonaro planea quedarse en Florida durante las próximas semanas o meses, con la esperanza de que se enfríen las investigaciones en Brasil sobre su actividad como presidente, según un amigo.Ned Price, el vocero del Departamento de Estado de EE. UU., no quiso hacer comentarios sobre el estatus de la visa de Bolsonaro, aludiendo a las leyes de privacidad. Pero indicó que se esperaba que cualquier persona que ingresara al país con una visa diplomática y que “ya no esté involucrada en asuntos oficiales en nombre de su gobierno” saliera del país o solicitara otro tipo de visa dentro de 30 días.“Si un individuo no tiene bases para estar en Estados Unidos, dicho individuo es sujeto de ser expulsado”, dijo Price.En un discurso grabado en los últimos días de su presidencia, Bolsonaro dijo que había intentado y fracasado en usar la ley para anular las elecciones de 2022, y sugirió que sus seguidores deberían seguir adelante. “Vivimos en una democracia o no”, dijo. “Nadie quiere una aventura”. El domingo, publicó un mensaje en Twitter condenando la violencia.Pero sus años de retórica contra las instituciones democráticas de Brasil, y su estrategia política de infundir miedo a la izquierda entre sus seguidores, ya habían dejado una marca imborrable.Entrevistas con manifestantes realizadas en semanas recientes parecían mostrar que el movimiento de Bolsonaro avanzaba sin él. Ahora es impulsado por creencias profundamente arraigadas entre muchos brasileños de derecha según las cuales las élites políticas amañaron el voto para instalar como presidente a Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a quien consideran un comunista que convertirá a Brasil en un estado autoritario como Venezuela.El presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva en reunión con integrantes del Supremo Tribunal y el Congreso el lunesVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesLula, el nuevo presidente, es un izquierdista pero no un comunista. Y los expertos de seguridad independientes dijeron que no había pruebas de irregularidades en las votaciones de 2022. Un análisis aparte realizado por el ejército de Brasil solo halló una posible vulnerabilidad en el sistema de votación de Brasil, que es completamente digital. Dicha vulnerabilidad requeriría la coordinación de numerosos funcionarios electorales, un escenario que según los expertos en seguridad era extremadamente improbable.Lula, que había hecho campaña para unificar a un país dividido, se enfrenta ahora a la investigación y el enjuiciamiento de muchos de los seguidores de sus oponentes políticos apenas a una semana de haber juramentado. Las autoridades indicaron que, hasta el lunes por la noche, alrededor de 1500 manifestantes habían sido detenidos y que serían retenidos al menos hasta terminar la investigación.El lunes, Lula habló con el presidente Joe Biden, quien le transmitió “el apoyo inquebrantable de Estados Unidos para la democracia de Brasil y la libre voluntad del pueblo brasileño”, según funcionarios de la Casa Blanca. Biden invitó a Lula a la Casa Blanca para principios de febrero. (Con Bolsonaro le tomó más de 18 meses llevar a cabo un encuentro en una cumbre en Los Ángeles).En un discurso televisado la noche del lunes, Lula dijo que su gobierno procesaría a quienquiera que haya atacado la democracia de Brasil el domingo. “Ellos quieren un golpe de Estado y golpe no habrá”, dijo. “Tienen que aprender que la democracia es lo más complicado que podemos hacer, porque nos exige aguantar a los demás, nos exige convivir con los que no nos caen bien”.Él y muchos de los principales funcionarios del gobierno de Brasil luego fueron caminando juntos desde los despachos presidenciales hasta el Supremo Tribunal Federal, cruzando la misma plaza que un día antes estaba atestada de turbas que pedían derrocar a su gobierno.El Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil el lunesVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesAna Ionova, More

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      What Drove the Brazil Riots? Mass Delusion and Conspiracy Theories

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      For the past 10 weeks, supporters of the ousted far-right President Jair Bolsonaro had camped outside Brazilian Army headquarters, demanding that the military overturn October’s presidential election. And for the past 10 weeks, the protesters faced little resistance from the government.Then, on Sunday, many of the camp’s inhabitants left their tents in Brasília, the nation’s capital, drove a few miles away and, joining hundreds of other protesters, stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential offices.By Monday morning, the authorities were sweeping through the encampment. They dismantled tents, tore down banners and detained 1,200 of the protesters, ferrying them away in buses for questioning.Why an encampment demanding a military coup was allowed to expand for over 70 days was part of a larger set of questions that officials were grappling with on Monday, among them:Why were protests allowed to get so close to Brazil’s halls of power? And why had security forces been so outnumbered, allowing throngs of protesters to easily surge into official government buildings?More than a thousand supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro alleged to have taken part in the unrest were being detained in Brasília.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesBrazil’s justice minister, Flávio Dino, said various security agencies had met on Friday to plan for possible violence in the planned protests on Sunday. But, he said, the security strategy hatched in that meeting, including keeping protesters away from the main government buildings, was at least partly abandoned on Sunday and there were far fewer law enforcement officers than had been anticipated.“The police contingent was not what had been agreed upon,” he said, adding that it was unclear why plans had changed.Some in the federal government blamed the governor of Brasília, Ibaneis Rocha, and his deputies, suggesting that they had been either negligent or complicit in understaffing the security forces around the protests.Late Sunday, Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice, suspended Mr. Rocha from his job as governor for at least 90 days, saying that the upheaval “could only occur with the consent, and even effective participation, of the security and intelligence authorities.”Whatever security lapses may have occurred, Sunday’s riot laid bare in shocking fashion the central challenge facing Brazil’s democracy. Unlike other attempts to topple governments across Latin America’s history, the attacks on Sunday were not ordered by a single strongman ruler or a military bent on seizing power, but rather were fueled by a more insidious, deeply rooted threat: mass delusion.Military police officers dismantling a camp used by Bolsonaro supporters in front of an army facility in Rio de Janeiro.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMillions of Brazilians appear to be convinced that October’s presidential election was rigged against Mr. Bolsonaro, despite audits and analyses by experts finding nothing of the sort. Those beliefs are in part the product of years of conspiracy theories, misleading statements and explicit falsehoods spread by Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies claiming Brazil’s fully electronic voting systems are rife with fraud.Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have been repeating the claims for months, and then built on them with new conspiracy theories passed along in group chats on WhatsApp and Telegram, many focused on the idea that the electronic voting machines’ software was manipulated to steal the election. On Sunday, protesters stood on the roof of Congress with a banner that made a single demand: “We want the source code.”Walking out of the protest encampment on Monday morning, Orlando Pinheiro Farias, 40, said he had entered the presidential offices on Sunday with fellow protesters to find documents related to “the investigations into the source code, which legitimize that Jair Messias Bolsonaro is the president of Brazil.”He rattled off several government acronyms and secret investigations that he had read about on the internet, and then said that he had to go back to his tent to retrieve a Brazilian flag he had stolen from the building.Delusions over the election extended to many protesters’ explanations of what had happened in the riots. People filing out of the encampment on Monday morning, carrying rolled-up air mattresses, extension cords and stools, each had a clear message: Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters had not ransacked the buildings. Rather, they said, those causing the damage were radical leftists in disguise, bent on defaming their movement.Employees of the presidential office during the clean-up on Monday.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“Have you ever heard of the Trojan Horse?” said Nathanael S. Viera, 51, who had driven 900 miles to take part in the protests on Sunday. “The infiltrators went in and set everything up, and the damn press showed the Brazilian nation that we patriots are the hooligans.”The scenes on Sunday of right-wing protesters draped in their national flag roaming through the halls of power were strikingly similar to those from the Jan. 6 storming of the United States Capitol, and so were the confused beliefs that drove protesters in both countries to invade federal buildings and film themselves doing so.“Donald Trump was taken out with a rigged election, no question about it, and at the time he was taken out, I said, ‘President Bolsonaro is going to be taken down,’” said Wanderlei Silva, 59, a retired hotel worker standing outside the encampment on Monday.Mr. Silva saw his own similarities between the riots on Sunday and those on Jan. 6, 2021. “The Democrats staged that and invaded the Capitol,” he said. “The same way they staged it here.”Brazil has long seen itself in the mold of the United States: a sprawling, diverse country rich in natural resources, spread across a collection of independent states and governed by a strong central government. But its tumultuous political history never truly mimicked the American system, until the past several years.“If there was no Trump, there would be no Bolsonaro in Brazil. And if there was no invasion of the Capitol, there wouldn’t have been the invasion we saw yesterday,” said Guga Chacra, a commentator for Brazil’s largest television network, who lives in New York and tracks politics in both countries. “Bolsonarismo tries to copy Trumpism, and Bolsonaro supporters in Brazil try to copy what Trump supporters do in the United States.”Even a description of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election reads like a summary of the 2020 American one: a far-right populist incumbent with a penchant for insults and off-the-cuff tweets against a septuagenarian challenger on the left running on his proven political track record and a promise to unite a divided nation.Outside the Federal Supreme Court on Monday.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesBut the election’s aftermath was different.While former President Donald J. Trump fought to overturn the results and urged his supporters to march on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, Mr. Bolsonaro had effectively given up and decamped for Florida by the time his voters were forcing their way into the offices he once occupied.Mr. Bolsonaro spent part of Monday in the hospital in Florida, dealing with abdominal pains stemming from a stabbing he suffered in 2018, his wife said on social media. Mr. Bolsonaro is planning to stay in Florida for the next several weeks or months, hoping investigations in Brazil into his activity as president will cool off, according to a friend. Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, would not comment specifically on Mr. Bolsonaro’s visa status, citing privacy laws. But he said that any person who came to the United States under a diplomatic visa and who “is no longer engaged in official business on behalf of their government” was expected either to depart the country or request a different type of visa within 30 days.“If an individual has no basis on which to be in the United States, an individual is subject to removal,” Mr. Price said.In a recorded address in the final days of his presidency, Mr. Bolsonaro said that he had tried and failed to use the law to overturn the 2022 election, and suggested that his supporters should now move on. “We live in a democracy or we don’t,” he said. “No one wants an adventure.” On Sunday, he posted a message on Twitter, criticizing the violence.But his years of rhetoric against Brazil’s democratic institutions — and his political strategy of instilling fear of the left in his supporters — had already left an indelible mark.Interviews with protesters in recent weeks appeared to show that Mr. Bolsonaro’s movement was moving beyond him. It is now driven by deeply held beliefs among many right-wing Brazilians that political elites rigged the vote to install as president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom they regard as a communist who will turn Brazil into an authoritarian state like Venezuela.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meeting with members of the Supreme Court and the National Congress on Monday.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Lula, the new president, is a leftist but is not a communist. And independent security experts said there was no evidence of irregularities in the 2022 vote. A separate analysis by Brazil’s military found just one potential vulnerability in Brazil’s fully digital voting system, which would require the coordination of multiple election officials to exploit, a scenario that security experts said was extremely unlikely.Mr. Lula, who had campaigned on unifying the divided nation, is now faced with investigating and prosecuting many of his political opponents’ supporters just a week into his presidency. The authorities said that roughly 1,500 protesters had been detained by Monday evening, and that they would be held until at least the investigation was finished.On Monday, Mr. Lula spoke with President Biden, who conveyed “the unwavering support of the United States for Brazil’s democracy and for the free will of the Brazilian people,” White House officials said. Mr. Biden invited Mr. Lula to the White House in early February. (It took more than 18 months for him to meet with Mr. Bolsonaro at a summit in Los Angeles.)In a televised speech on Monday night, Mr. Lula said that his government would prosecute anyone who had attacked Brazil’s democracy on Sunday. “What they want is a coup, and they won’t have one,” he said. “They have to learn that democracy is the most complicated thing we do.”He and many of Brazil’s top government officials then walked together from the presidential offices to the Supreme Court, crossing the same plaza that a day before was thronged with mobs calling for the overthrow of his government.Brazil’s Supreme Court on Monday.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesReporting was contributed by Ana Ionova, More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Brazil Arrests Rioters

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      Also, heavy fighting rages around Bakhmut and scientists say the ozone layer is healing.Protesters vandalized the facade of Brazil’s presidential office.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesBrazil reels from Sunday’s riotsAt least 1,200 people have been detained after rioters stormed government offices on Sunday in Brazil’s capital, officials said yesterday.The detentions came after one of the worst attacks on Brazil’s democracy in the 38 years since its military dictatorship ended. On Sunday, thousands of people broke into government offices, falsely claiming the October election was stolen from Jair Bolsonaro, the former president. Here are videos of the Sunday riots.Yesterday, authorities also began dismantling the tent city where Bolsonaro supporters had been camping out since he lost the election. The dispersal was peaceful, despite fears that it could have fueled further tensions.Brazil’s justice minister said that authorities had identified about 40 buses that brought rioters to Brasília and that the financial backers of the trips would be tracked down and held responsible. Voices on social media had offered free transportation and food to protesters.Details: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed an emergency decree that put federal authorities in charge of security in Brazil’s capital. And a Supreme Court judge suspended the district’s governor while investigations take place into security failures.Bolsonaro: The former president has long attacked Brazil’s election process. After the vote, independent experts and Brazil’s military found no credible evidence of fraud. On Sunday, he criticized the protests.Ukrainian military analysts near Bakhmut reviewed videos obtained by drone operators last week.Nicole Tung for The New York TimesHeavy fighting near BakhmutFierce fighting raged yesterday around Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine that Russia has tried to capture since the summer. The fighting appeared to be focused on Soledar, a nearby town.Russia claimed to have taken a village near Soledar. Ukraine said that it had repelled Russian attempts to storm Soledar, where the deputy defense minister said that “fierce battles” were raging. Ukraine usually avoids battles with the risk of high casualties. But in Bakhmut, without hesitation, it’s going toe-to-toe with Russia.The State of the WarBattling for Bakhmut: Ukraine and Russia are going toe to toe in the key eastern city. That stands in contrast to Ukraine’s strategy elsewhere along the front line, where it succeeded by avoiding direct confrontations.New Equipment: The Western allies’ provision to Ukraine of infantry fighting vehicles signals their support for new offensives in coming months.Sexual Crimes: After months of bureaucratic and political delays, Ukrainian officials are gathering pace in documenting sexual crimes committed by Russian forces during the war.Adapting to Survive: The war has taken a severe toll on Ukraine’s economy. But it has also pushed Ukrainians to restructure parts of the economy at lightning speed.If Russian forces capture Soledar, it would mark their most significant advance in Ukraine in months. But fighting in the east is slow and relentless, and there is little sign that dug-in Ukrainian forces will relinquish the city anytime soon.Bakhmut: The city has become a symbol of Ukraine’s defiance. Some worry that could cloud military judgment, but analysts say Ukraine’s aggressive strategy has paid off, weakening Russia.The Wagner Group: The group’s Kremlin-aligned founder said that Soledar “is being taken solely by Wagner units,” which Western security officials and analysts say operate largely outside the Russian military’s chain of command.A refrigerator factory in 2018 in a part of China where businesses had defied restrictions on ozone-depleting chemicals.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesThe ozone layer is on the mendA U.N.-backed report found that the ozone layer could be restored within a few decades, now that China has begun successfully cracking down on rogue emissions of a banned chemical.That’s big news: In 2018, scientists revealed that global emissions of CFC-11, a chemical most likely used to make foam insulation, had increased since 2012. Investigations by The Times and others strongly suggested that small factories in Eastern China disregarding the global ban were the source.In 2018, the head of the U.N. Environment Program said the rogue emissions, if they continued, could delay ozone recovery by a decade. But now, scientists said that ozone levels between the polar regions should reach pre-1980 levels by 2040. Ozone holes should also recover.Ozone: The protective layer in the upper atmosphere blocks ultraviolet radiation from the sun, which can cause skin cancer.Context: The Montreal Protocol, the treaty negotiated in the 1980s to phase out the use of such chemicals, is generally considered to be the most effective global environmental pact ever enacted.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificA wallaby passed through floodwaters last week.Callum Lamond, via ReutersThe Kimberley region, in Australia’s western outback, is suffering a “one-in-100-year flood,” Sky News reports.Thailand dropped a rule that would have required visitors to present proof of a Covid vaccine, Reuters reports. Officials had announced the rule on Saturday, as the country prepared for Chinese visitors.Australia is doing well economically, but a recession is still possible.Around the WorldPresident Biden visited the U.S.-Mexico border for the first time since taking office. He’s in Mexico City now.In a landmark lawsuit, environmental groups in France are suing Danone, the dairy giant, for failing to sufficiently reduce its plastic footprint.Prince Harry’s memoir comes out today. In it, he claims that he killed 25 Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.Other Big StoriesThe Republican approach to running the U.S. House suggests there will be more gridlock and legislative instability, not less.About one in 12 working-age adults in Britain has a long-term health condition and is not working or looking for work. That’s a problem for the economy.Rome opened a skatepark right next to the Colosseum. It’s a triumph.A Morning ReadThe Ocean Canda nightclub feels more beachfront shack than ritzy club.Joao Silva/The New York TimesSouth Africa’s townships, born of racist apartheid-era social engineering, once kept nonwhite citizens segregated from economic opportunities and basic infrastructure.Now, they’re home to a vibrant nightlife scene. Instead of Cape Town — with its traffic, expensive drinks and whiter population — Black professionals party in Khayelitsha, a nearby township that they say better suits their culture and tastes.ARTS AND IDEASNoma is closingA signature of Noma and its cuisine is its luxurious, modern-rustic aesthetic.Ditte Isager for The New York TimesMy colleagues have a major scoop in the world of fine dining: Noma will close for regular service at the end of 2024. The Copenhagen restaurant, which repeatedly tops lists of the world’s best restaurants, will become a full-time food laboratory focused on its e-commerce operation. It will open to diners only for periodic pop-ups.Noma has fundamentally changed gastronomy: Foodies often book flights to Denmark’s capital only after they clinch a reservation. And its creator, René Redzepi, has been hailed as his era’s most brilliant and influential chef.But Redzepi said that the current model, which changed fine dining forever, was “unsustainable.” Staff at Noma work grueling hours. The workplace culture is intense, and the restaurant long relied on an army of unpaid interns. One alumnus compared the industry to ballet, another elite pursuit that has abuse built into its very model.“We have to completely rethink the industry,” Redzepi told The Times. “This is simply too hard, and we have to work in a different way.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookLinda Xiao for The New York Times. Food stylist: Maggie Ruggiero. Prop stylist: Sophia Pappas.This poppy seed tea cake is simple and earthy.What to ReadIn “The Bandit Queens,” wives in rural India get the ultimate revenge on their no-good husbands.What to Listen toHere are seven songs we nearly missed in 2022.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Dummy (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Mara Hvistendahl is joining The Times from The Intercept as a new investigative correspondent focused on China and Asia.“The Daily” is on Kevin McCarthy, the new House speaker.You can always reach me at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Brazil’s President Lula Has No Easy Choices

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      Brazil’s new president is hemmed in by protesters on one side and financial markets on the other. He needs to spend money to please the public, but he needs to demonstrate fiscal responsibility to keep investors from abandoning Brazilian assets, which could cause interest rates to soar and cripple the economy. Unfortunately, it will be extremely difficult to do both at once.It’s a tough spot for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leftist who served two terms from 2003 to 2010 and narrowly won election to a third term in October over the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro. On Sunday, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters broke into government buildings in the capital, Brasília, to protest what they falsely believe was a stolen election.Lula, as he is known, was able to spend generously on social programs during his first period in office in part because of high prices for many of the commodities that Brazil exports. Brazil is a major producer of steel as well as agricultural products such as citrus and soybeans. Now commodity prices are faltering because of expectations of a global economic downturn. On top of that, Brazil’s central bank has raised its key lending rate to nearly 14 percent in an effort to extinguish inflation, which is running around 6 percent.Bolsonaro, although far right in his politics, governed as a free-spending populist. His government bolstered fuel subsidies last year, which won him votes but worsened the government’s financial situation.Lula, who was inaugurated on Jan. 1 in the company of his adopted pet dog, Resistência, has handed the vital job of finance minister to Fernando Haddad, a fellow leftist who hasn’t (at least yet) won the confidence of investors.With Bolsonaro’s supporters roiling Brasília and other cities, “The capital flow of foreign buyers that entered the Brazilian market recently is likely to be undone,” Matthew Ryan, the head of market strategy at Ebury, a financial services firm, wrote in a note on Monday.In a warning to investors, Filippos Papasavvas, a markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a client note on Monday that “any worries about widespread protests could see Lula double down on the more popularist (and less market-friendly) parts of his agenda, such as significant increases to social spending.”For a closer look at Lula’s dilemma, I interviewed Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. A native of Brazil, she was named an honored economist by the Order of Brazilian Economists in 2014 for her contributions to the Brazilian policy debate.“He has no room to do the kinds of things that people expected him to do,” de Bolle told me. On the spending side, investors who worry about deficts spending will rebel if the government increases social spending or puts through a big increase in the minimum wage. Conversely, the public will rebel if he attempts to roll back subsidies on fuel that Bolsonaro put in place.De Bolle said that Brazil’s Wall Street is thick with Bolsonaro supporters. She argued that they gave Bolsonaro the benefit of the doubt but aren’t cutting Lula any slack. I told her that sounded like a great opportunity for investors from outside Brazil: If indeed domestic investors are overly pessimistic about Lula’s ability to rein in spending, then prices of Brazilian debt must be too low, presenting a good deal for buyers. She agreed. “Brazil will certainly present that opportunity,” she said.Then again, if Ebury’s Ryan is correct, foreign investors will be reluctant to scoop up Brazilian assets as long as the political situation remains uncertain. There’s no second honeymoon for Lula.Outlook: Georges Ugeux“Why is nobody talking about the debt?” Georges Ugeux, the chairman and chief executive of Galileo Global Advisors, a New York-based company that advises on mergers, acquisitions and management, asked in an article posted on Medium on Thursday. Rising interest rates have increased the burden of debt. It isn’t just a problem for emerging markets, he wrote. “The over-indebtedness of the United States, Europe, Japan and China could create a much more severe debt crisis, both at sovereign and at corporate levels.” He predicted that 2023 will be “the year where we will start paying the cost of our inconsiderate addiction to debt.”Quote of the Day“Japan’s experience of prolonged deflation suggests that it takes a great deal of effort to dispel anxiety over deflation. Nevertheless, there was no need to give up the challenge of overcoming deflation simply because the economy fell into deflation; against the background of the Bank’s monetary policy measures adopted since 2013, the economy has improved and is currently no longer in deflation.”— Masazumi Wakatabe, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, in his keynote speech at the annual meeting of the Japan Association of Business Cycle Studies, Dec. 3, 2022Have feedback? Send a note to coy-newsletter@nytimes.com. More