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    'Help is on the way': Joe Biden introduces economic team as pandemic rages

    Joe Biden, the US president-elect, formally introduced his top economic advisers on Tuesday, as his incoming administration prepares to deal with the worst financial crisis in decades and a resurgent coronavirus pandemic.Wearing a black boot on the right foot he recently fractured while playing with one of his dogs, Biden appeared in his home city, Wilmington, Delaware, for an event that stressed the gravity of the situation but sought to offer hope.“We’re going to create a recovery for everybody,” Biden said. “Our message to everybody struggling right now is this: help is on the way.”Biden’s nominations would put several women in top economic roles, drawing a clear contrast with Donald Trump and reflecting his commitment to diversity.They include Janet Yellen, who if confirmed by the Senate will be the first woman to lead the US treasury in its 231-year history. Biden said he “might have to ask Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote the musical about the first treasury secretary, [Alexander] Hamilton, to write another musical” about his new nominee.Yellen led the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018, focusing on maximising employment and less on price inflation. In remarks on Tuesday, she noted the damage caused by the pandemic.“Lost lives, lost jobs, small businesses struggling to stay alive or closed for good,” she said. “So many people struggling to put food on the table and pay bills and rent.“It’s an American tragedy and it’s essential we move with urgency. Inaction will cause a self-reinforcing downturn, causing yet more devastation. And we risk missing the obligation to address deeper structural problems.” More

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    Has political consensus become a pipe dream? | Letters

    Perhaps the liberal democratic managed capitalism desired by Martin Kettle did exist in the 1950s, including the new welfare state in the UK (The toxic polarisation of our politics can be reversed, but it will take humility, 26 November). It didn’t prove robust – the Conservatives moved to the right and embraced free-market capitalism; regulation exists but is weak and largely captured by “experts” from the relevant market sectors.It is difficult to see how the idealised consensus can be created today, especially within one state. Multinational companies moving activities to poorly regulated locations and tax havens means that regulation must be multinational. The EU is attempting to regulate and tax tech and online firms, cooperation with which the UK has abandoned. The replacement of Donald Trump by Joe Biden doesn’t mean that economic nationalism will go out of fashion.Kettle is right that respect for the truth is indispensable. The problem is that honest conservatism has gone and, internationally, the right has adopted untruth as a weapon. This approach will continue as it has proved successful. Trump has lost the election, but the size of his vote and support for his untruths demonstrate just how successful.Talking – and listening – to each other in a truthful and respectful way is a good thing, but it needs that approach from all parts of the political spectrum. Kettle implies that such consensus-seeking would inhibit the left from offering radical solutions to our problems, because that may destroy any consensus. Is that how democracy works?Doug SimpsonTodmorden, West Yorkshire• Martin Kettle rightly highlights polarisation and the growth of the “I” society since the 1960s. Surely it is no coincidence that this coincided with a digital revolution that changed all our lives? Last year, I revisited California 50 years after doing an MBA at Stanford University. The wealthiest state in the world has failed to solve homelessness in the streets or congestion on the roads. Black people have been displaced by escalating house prices.All the talking and listening in the world will be of little value unless governments get control of the land and finance needed to build a fairer society. We should be using technology to map inequalities and invest in bridging the gaps rather than consoling ourselves with webinars and games.Dr Nicholas FalkExecutive director, The Urbed Trust• It is possible to share Martin Kettle’s hope for a less divided America without romanticising the 1950s. One need only recall those who left for Europe when “cooperation” was not shown to their differing political beliefs. The 50s also saw the enlargement of the attorney general’s list of subversive organisations. A loyalty oath was required by anyone wishing to enter a graduate programme or benefit from a scholarship, and the House Committee on Un-American Activities destroyed careers. Dwight Eisenhower was no Donald Trump, but neither was he a hero to those not in the political mainstream.Susan ZagorLondon• On reading how Labour’s general secretary has banned local parties from discussing the loss of the whip from Jeremy Corbyn (Report, 27 November), I was reminded of how Joseph Stalin tried to make Leon Trotsky a non-person in Russia. It is marvellous where the party leadership takes its inspiration from.Terry WardWickford, Essex More

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    The US is on ‘inequality autopilot’ – how can Biden's treasury pick help change course?

    Teresa Marez has never heard of Janet Yellen, likely to be the next treasury secretary of the United States. But she and millions of other Americans have a lot riding on the decisions Yellen will make if and when she is confirmed next year.The coronavirus has upended Marez’s life. Her savings are almost exhausted and she is worried about her unemployment benefits, which run out next week. “It’s so hard. It’s just such a mess,” said the mother of two in San Antonio, Texas. “We just need Congress to make a decision,” Marez said. “As long as they are in limbo, we are in limbo.”Marez, 45, is one of the millions of Americans still suffering from the economic devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic and whose plight will be the top priority of incoming president Joe Biden and his treasury secretary pick.The situation is dire. About 20 million Americans are currently unemployed. For many hunger has become a major issue. Government figures show that the week before Thanksgiving – America’s biggest feast day – 5.6m households struggled to put enough food on the table. Huge, haunting lines have formed at food banks across the country and years of neglect and underfunding of the systems to help those in need have worsened their plight.Last week Marez spent three and a half hours on hold waiting to speak with someone at a Texas unemployment office to hear whether she would get a new form of unemployment when her existing funds expire. The answer was a noncommittal maybe. “Three and a half hours on hold in mid-morning just to get that answer,” she said.According to the Century Foundation, 12 million Americans will be cut off from their jobless benefits on 26 December. A disproportionate number of those people will be women and Latino, like Marez, or Black and young, the groups hardest hit by the economic downturn. More

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    Former Fed chair Janet Yellen set to become first female treasury secretary

    Janet Yellen, the first woman to chair the US Federal Reserve, is set to achieve another first, becoming the country’s first female treasury secretary.
    The 74-year-old economist is expected to be named as President-elect Joe Biden’s choice on Tuesday.
    Yellen will take the job during one of the most trying economic times in modern history.
    US unemployment hit a postwar record in April, in the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and while the jobs situation has improved, the recovery has slowed in recent months as rates of infection have increased.
    Millions remain out of work, and women and people of color have been hit disproportionately hard by the downturn.
    Congress has struggled to reach agreement on a new round of economic spending, the US national debt is at record levels, and relations with the US’s major trading partners are frayed after the Trump administration’s trade wars.
    Donald Trump declined to reappoint Yellen to the Fed chair after his election in 2016, making her the first central bank chief not to serve two terms since the Carter administration. During his campaign Trump said Yellen should be “ashamed” of her policy actions and accused her of keeping interest rates low in order to bolster President Barack Obama’s legacy.
    Cautious and carefully spoken Yellen has made few comments about Trump although when asked last year if she thought Trump “had a grasp” of macroeconomic policy she said: “No I do not.”
    Yellen has recently advocated for more federal spending from Congress to tackle the economic devastation caused by the virus.
    “There is a huge amount of suffering out there. The economy needs the spending,” Yellen said in a September interview.
    Yellen, professor emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley, a former assistant professor at Harvard and a lecturer at the London School of Economics, is an expert in labor markets who has highlighted the economic impact of uneven growth in the jobs market.
    She is married to the Nobel-winning economist and frequent co-author George Akerlof.
    Progressives had been hoping Senator Elizabeth Warren, a staunch critic of Wall Street, might get the job. But with control of the Senate still in the balance, Yellen is a safer pick. After the news broke Warren called Yellen “an outstanding choice.”

    Elizabeth Warren
    (@SenWarren)
    Janet Yellen would be an outstanding choice for Treasury Secretary. She is smart, tough, and principled. As one of the most successful Fed Chairs ever, she has stood up to Wall Street banks, including holding Wells Fargo accountable for cheating working families.

    November 23, 2020

    Biden said last week that his Treasury nominee would be accepted by both the progressive and moderate wings of the Democrat party. Yellen has also in the past attracted bipartisan support, receiving 11 Republican votes for her 2014 confirmation as Fed chair, including the backing of three sitting Republican senators.
    She is also one of the best-connected economists in the world, leading the Fed from 2014 to 2018 after a long career in economic policymaking.
    If appointed, Yellen will not only be the first female Fed chair and treasury secretary, but the first person to have headed both organizations and the White House council of economic advisers. More

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    Fight for $15 minimum wage boosted in Florida but Biden faces tough task

    It has been a long time coming but Hector Rivera is hopeful that one day soon he will be able to take a day off work. The 61-year-old works as a janitor in Miami, Florida, making just over $9 an hour. Because the pay is so low, Rivera works two janitorial jobs and scrambles to find gig jobs on the weekends in order to cover his rent and bills every month.“Trying to survive on this salary is extremely difficult because I’m constantly looking for more work,” said Rivera, a Dominican and one of the millions of Latino and Black Americans who are disproportionately represented in the low-wage sector.On 3 November Rivera, and the millions of Americans fighting for a raise for low-wage workers, were given a boost when Florida passed a resolution to increase its minimum wage to $15 an hour.Raising the minimum wage was a central plank of Joe Biden’s election campaign and Florida’s vote came even as the state voted for Donald Trump. But while workers and activists are cheering the victory, the road ahead for Biden and a raise in the minimum wage looks tough.It’s been eight years since fast-food workers walked off their jobs in New York City and began calling for a $15 minimum wage. In that time the Fight for $15 movement grew to be the largest protest movement for low-wage workers in US history and has won some important victories.Florida is the first state in the south and the eighth state overall to adopt such a measure. And some big corporations including Amazon, Target and Walt Disney have raised, or promised to raise, their minimum wages to $15.After Biden’s win, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime supporter of the movement, urged the incoming Biden administration to use all the “tools in their toolbox” to push a raise through and Biden has promised to back unions who are also pushing hard for a statewide raise for low-wage workers.Rivera was among the low-wage workers who got involved with a union organizing drive for change at his workplace with Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ. The Florida ballot, known as amendment two, will gradually increase the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026 from its current minimum wage set at $8.56 an hour.“With amendment two passing, I’ll be able to spend more time with my family,” said Rivera, who recently spent 35 hours working straight without any sleep. “Hopefully now I’ll be able to take a day off,” Rivera added. “The only way we can live a decent life here in Miami is if they raise our wages because everything is expensive. It’s impossible to save money without making more.”A raise has broad support in the US, even in Republican states. Over 60% of Florida voters approved the measure. In Louisiana, another Republican state where the minimum wage is just $7.25 an hour, a Louisiana State University poll 59% of residents support raising it to $15.Nor is there much evidence that a raise would be bad for business. A UC Berkeley report published in July 2019 found even low-wage areas in the US can afford a $15 minimum wage, which would reduce poverty and have no adverse effects, such as job losses. Most economic research on the subject has demonstrated little to no negative consequences to employment while providing positive gains for the low-wage workforce. The last time Florida increased its state minimum wage in 2004, unemployment dropped and 200,000 jobs were added the following year. More

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    UK budget won’t be balanced this decade, says head of Institute for Fiscal Studies

    The UK’s ravaged public finances are unlikely to be brought into balance before the end of the decade at the earliest thanks to the lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).In his Conservative Party speech in October the Chancellor Rishi Sunak said he had a “sacred responsibility” to leave the public finances strong and that “this Conservative government will always balance the books”.Yet, ahead of Mr Sunak’s Spending Review next Wednesday, Paul Johnson, the head of the IFS, told Econ Films’ CoronaNomics show, that this was a distant prospect indeed.“[It] was a very, very strange thing to say because I don’t think there’s any possibility of the books being balanced this decade, if not for longer,” said Mr Johnson.
    The government has borrowed £215bn since April, according to the Office for National Statistics, up from £46bn in the same period in 2019.  The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s independent forecaster, estimated in August (before the furlough extension was announced) that total borrowing for the full 2020-21 financial year would come in at around £372bn, around 19 per cent of UK GDP.This would be the biggest annual deficit in peacetime.  Most of that borrowing is expected to disappear automatically as the economy ultimately recovers and the emergency support for the economy, such as the furlough scheme, comes to end.But most forecasters, including the Bank of England, now expect the UK economy to be considerably smaller in the middle of the decade than was expected before the crisis, which will open up a “structural” deficit in the public finances, meaning a deficit that will not be automatically closed when the economy is running at normal speed.The size of that deficit will depend on the speed of the recovery and how much extra spending on health in the crisis becomes permanent, but in its “Green Budget” earlier this year the IFS laid out scenarios of public borrowing by 2024-2025, with the optimistic scenario showing a deficit of 3.5 per cent and the pessimistic scenario showing a deficit of  8.5 per cent.Many analysts are pencilling in a long-run structural deficit of around 2 per cent of GDP, or £40bn in today’s money. There has been speculation that Rishi Sunak is examining tax rises in anticipation of needing to take action to repair the public finances and there have been reports the Treasury plans to freeze the pay of non-health public sector employees in 2021-22 in the Spending Review.Yet Mr Johnson, in line with just about every independent economist, argues that the Treasury should not be implementing any tax rises or spending cuts until the economy has recovered, as such consolidation measures, at the moment, would merely make the country’s fiscal hole deeper.“There was some very odd briefing over the summer, where there was lots of press speculation about a budget in the Autumn announcing tax rises for next year, which were supposedly coming from the Treasury, though I find that very hard to believe,” Mr Johnson told CoronaNomics.“Clearly they should not have been – and I’m amazed that they were – talking about that kind of thing at that time. It was clearly an inappropriate moment to be doing that.” More

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    The 'market' won't save us from climate disaster. We must rethink our system | Robert S Devine

    The massive wildfires that have been rampaging across the American west this year are not purely natural disasters. They are partly products of the unnatural disaster of climate change – “unnatural”, in that the ultimate responsibility for global warming belongs not to physics but to our economic system. Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist of the World Bank, calls climate change the “greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen”. Sadly, climate change is only one – albeit a whopper – of the countless market failures that degrade our lives.
    Though it sounds like a generic phrase, “market failure” is actually a technical term. It doesn’t refer to scams like insider trading or corporate fraud. A failure occurs when the marketplace allocates resources in a way that does not optimally deliver wellbeing. We understandably focus a lot of attention on the depredations of greedy tycoons and corporations, but many of the most consequential market failures stem from innate characteristics of our current market system.
    Many of us probably already have a gut feeling that our current market system often fails. In order to build a more sustainable, just and prosperous economy, however, it’s vital that we better comprehend the shortcomings deep in the market’s DNA. Greater awareness would reduce blind faith in the market and enable people to see the market for what it is: a tool. It can be an excellent tool when used for the right job, but relying on the market to deal with something like climate change is like trying to pound nails with a saw.
    One major inherent flaw involves communication. In an ideal version of the market, continuous indirect communication between consumers and producers leads to the best allocation of society’s resources. Consumers make their desires known by the prices they’re willing to pay, and producers convey their costs by the prices they charge.
    However, producers only communicate a narrow range of costs. For example, an oil company will account for typical expenses, like payments to its employees, and then set its prices accordingly. Consumers will receive those price signals and decide whether to buy that company’s gasoline. But markets enable businesses to scrub most social and environmental costs from these signals, which garbles communication with consumers. For instance, the price of gas doesn’t reflect the cost of the revved-up wildfires we suffer due to the additional global warming caused by burning that oil company’s gasoline. Numerous studies estimate that the true cost of gas is two to four times higher than what we pay at the pump.
    Incomplete communication misleads us consumers into buying products laden with hidden costs. Countless goods and services bear the stains of harms such as pollution, habitat destruction, floods, child labor, extinctions and disease. When we fill up at the gas station the price we are charged doesn’t tell us that our purchase increases the odds that a wildfire will burn down our community. Making such partially informed choices is like buying a house having seen only the kitchen.
    Another characteristic of the market that leads to failure is its inability to provide incentives for businesses to produce or protect public goods, such as fire departments or city parks. Most important, the market doesn’t generate the public goods sometimes known as “ecosystem services”, such as nutrient cycling, soil formation, oxygen creation and a livable climate. Many of these essential services operate in the background; like plumbing and wiring, they go unnoticed and unappreciated unless they fail.
    Take the flooding that drowned parts of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina thrashed the Gulf coast. More than 1,800 people died, cherished communities disintegrated, and the price tag swelled to more than $100bn. Much of the devastation occurred because oil and gas development had decimated the coastal marshes that previously had tamed storm surges. The protection those marshes provide is an extremely valuable ecosystem service, yet no entrepreneurs hustle to produce that protection.
    And why would they? The market doesn’t give private businesses a profit motive to produce public goods. For example, even if a company were to restore a marsh, they wouldn’t be able to sell that service because they couldn’t exclude anyone living on that coast from using that protection for free.
    Private restoration companies exist, of course, and some make a profit by rehabilitating marshes. But market forces didn’t spawn these outfits. At some point somebody recognized the value of the marshes and made a conscious choice to try to preserve or restore them. Most likely a number of somebodies made that choice and pressed their government to hire a restoration company. More broadly, environmental and social projects happen when a great many somebodies vote for candidates who support such efforts. Such purposeful collective action is the overarching solution to market failures. Instead of passively counting on supply and demand to provide everything we need, we sometimes need to exert our judgment.
    And there it is, the J-word: “judgment”. Free-enterprise disciples view most efforts to use our collective judgment to shape the economy as central planning that will foul the gears of the market. But banishing judgment about how to allocate our resources will result in a world with plenty of video game consoles and fashionable shoes and precious little biodiversity and climate stability – and, all too soon, biological poverty and climate chaos will also cripple the economy of stuff, and video game consoles and shoes will become scarce, as well.
    Citizens who scorn judgment should note that we’ve exercised some collective judgment to help guide the economy since the advent of government. The problem is that we’re not exercising it enough. In recent decades we’ve gotten out of balance and are leaning too far toward an unrestrained market even when it’s the wrong tool for the job.
    Consider your toaster. It’s loaded with hidden costs that the market doesn’t communicate and that individual consumers can’t be expected to discover. But government (well, good government that pays attention to science) has the expertise to evaluate your toaster. If we citizens decide that we want to address climate change and air pollution, then government can do our bidding by devising energy efficiency standards for our appliances.
    In fact, they did, decades ago. According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, those regulations have saved more than $1tn to date and have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of the annual emissions of 800m cars. And we don’t even know the standards are there – hardly the heavy hand of government that haunts free-marketeers’ fever dreams.
    So let’s use our judgment to create an economy that better aligns with our values. Instead of surrendering our autonomy to the soulless mechanics of the market, we can freely choose to grow beyond being mere consumers and become forceful citizens.
    Robert S Devine is the author of Bush Versus the Environment and The Sustainable Economy: The Hidden Costs of Climate Change and the Path to a Prosperous Future More