Castillo, Pedro (1969- )

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      Leftists Are Ascendant in Latin America as Key Elections Loom

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      Growing inequality and sputtering economies have helped fuel a wave of leftist victories that may soon extend to Brazil and Colombia.RIO DE JANEIRO — In the final weeks of 2021, Chile and Honduras voted decisively for leftist presidents to replace leaders on the right, extending a significant, multiyear shift across Latin America.This year, leftist politicians are the favorites to win presidential elections in Colombia and Brazil, taking over from right-wing incumbents, which would put the left and center-left in power in the six largest economies in the region, stretching from Tijuana to Tierra del Fuego.Economic suffering, widening inequality, fervent anti-incumbent sentiment and mismanagement of Covid-19 have all fueled a pendulum swing away from the center-right and right-wing leaders who were dominant a few years ago.The left has promised more equitable distribution of wealth, better public services and vastly expanded social safety nets. But the region’s new leaders face serious economic constraints and legislative opposition that could restrict their ambitions, and restive voters who have been willing to punish whoever fails to deliver.The left’s gains could buoy China and undermine the United States as they compete for regional influence, analysts say, with a new crop of Latin American leaders who are desperate for economic development and more open to Beijing’s global strategy of offering loans and infrastructure investment. The change could also make it harder for the United States to continue isolating authoritarian leftist regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.With rising inflation and stagnant economies, Latin America’s new leaders will find it hard to deliver real change on profound problems, said Pedro Mendes Loureiro, a professor of Latin American studies at the University of Cambridge. To some extent, he said, voters are “electing the left simply because it is the opposition at the moment.”Poverty is at a 20-year high in a region where a short-lived commodities boom had enabled millions to ascend into the middle class after the turn of the century. Several nations now face double-digit unemployment, and more than 50 percent of workers in the region are employed in the informal sector.Corruption scandals, dilapidated infrastructure and chronically underfunded health and education systems have eroded faith in leaders and public institutions.Homeless people lining up to receive lunch from volunteers in São Paulo in August. “The issue now is the frustration, the class system, the stratification,” one analyst said.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesUnlike the early 2000s, when leftists won critical presidencies in Latin America, the new officeholders are saddled by debt, lean budgets, scant access to credit and in many cases, vociferous opposition.Eric Hershberg, the director of the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University, said the left’s winning streak is born out of widespread indignation.“This is really about lower-middle-class and working-class sectors saying, ‘Thirty years into democracy, and we still have to ride a decrepit bus for two hours to get to a bad health clinic,’” Mr. Hershberg said. He cited frustration, anger and “a generalized sense that elites have enriched themselves, been corrupt, have not been operating in the public interest.”Covid has ravaged Latin America and devastated economies that were already precarious, but the region’s political tilt started before the pandemic.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s leftist ex-leader, has a sizable advantage over Mr. Bolsonaro in a head-to-head matchup, according to a recent poll.Mauro Pimentel/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe first milestone was the election in Mexico of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who won the presidency by a landslide in July 2018. He declared during his election night address: “The state will cease being a committee at the service of a minority and it will represent all Mexicans, poor and rich.”The next year, voters in Panama and Guatemala elected left-of-center governments, and Argentina’s Peronist movement made a stunning comeback despite its leaders’ legacy of corruption and economic mismanagement. President Alberto Fernández, a university professor, celebrated his triumph over a conservative incumbent by promising “to build the Argentina we deserve.”In 2020, Luis Arce trounced conservative rivals to become president of Bolivia. He vowed to build on the legacy of the former leader Evo Morales, a socialist whose ouster the year before had briefly left the nation in the hands of a right-wing president.Last April, Pedro Castillo, a provincial schoolteacher, shocked Peru’s political establishment by narrowly defeating the right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori for the presidency. Mr. Castillo, a political newcomer, railed against elites and presented his life story — an educator who worked in a rural school without running water or a sewage system — as an embodiment of their failings.In Honduras, Xiomara Castro, a socialist who proposed a system of universal basic income for poor families, handily beat a conservative rival in November to become president-elect.Xiomara Castro, who won election in Honduras, has proposed a system of universal basic income for poor families.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesThe most recent win for the left came last month in Chile, where Gabriel Boric, a 35-year-old former student activist, beat a far-right rival by promising to raise taxes on the rich in order to offer more generous pensions and vastly expand social services.The trend has not been universal. In the past three years, voters in El Salvador, Uruguay and Ecuador have moved their governments rightward. And in Mexico and Argentina last year, left-of-center parties lost ground in legislative elections, undercutting their presidents.But on the whole, Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College, said that in his memory there had never been a Latin America “as dominated by a combination of leftists and anti-U. S. populist leaders.”“Across the region, leftist governments will be particularly willing to work with the Chinese on government-to-government contracts,” he said, and possibly “with respect to security collaboration as well as technology collaboration.”Jennifer Pribble, a political science professor at the University of Richmond who studies Latin America, said the brutal toll of the pandemic in the region made leftist initiatives such as cash transfers and universal health care increasingly popular.“Latin American voters now have a keener sense of what the state can do and of the importance of the state engaging in a redistributive effort and in providing public services,” she said. “That shapes these elections, and clearly the left can speak more directly to that than the right.”Gabriel Boric, a former student activist, has promised a vast expansion of social services in Chile. Marcelo Hernandez/Getty ImagesIn Colombia, where a presidential election is set for May, Gustavo Petro, a leftist former mayor of Bogotá who once belonged to an urban guerrilla group, has held a consistent lead in polls.Sergio Guzmán, the director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a consulting firm, said Mr. Petro’s presidential aspirations became viable after most fighters from the FARC, a Marxist guerrilla group, laid down their weapons as part of a peace deal struck in 2016. The conflict long dominated Colombian politics, but no more.“The issue now is the frustration, the class system, the stratification, the haves and have-nots,” he said.Just before Christmas, Sonia Sierra, 50, stood outside the small coffee shop she runs in Bogotá’s main urban park. Her earnings had plummeted, she said, first amid the pandemic, and then when a community displaced by violence moved into the park.Ms. Sierra said she was deep in debt after her husband was hospitalized with Covid. Finances are so tight, she recently let go her only employee, a young woman from Venezuela who earned just $7.50 a day.“So much work and nothing to show for it,” Ms. Sierra she said, singing a verse from a song popular at Christmastime in Colombia. “I’m not crying, but yes, it hurts.”In Recife, Brazil, supplementing income by harvesting shellfish.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesIn neighboring Brazil, rising poverty, inflation and a bungled response to the pandemic have made President Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent, an underdog in the vote set for October.Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist firebrand who governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010, an era of remarkable prosperity, has built a 30 percentage point advantage over Mr. Bolsonaro in a head-to-head matchup, according to a recent poll.Maurício Pimenta da Silva, 31, an assistant manager at a farming supplies store in the São Lourenço region of Rio de Janeiro state, said that he regretted voting for Mr. Bolsonaro in 2018, and that he intended to support Mr. da Silva.“I thought Bolsonaro would improve our life in some aspects, but he didn’t,” said Mr. Pimenta, a father of four who is no relation to the former president. “Everything is so expensive in the supermarkets, especially meat,” he added, prompting him to take a second job.With voters facing so much upheaval, moderate candidates are gaining little traction, lamented Simone Tebet, a center-right senator in Brazil who plans to run for president.“If you look at Brazil and Latin America, we are living in a relatively frightening cycle of extremes,” she said. “Radicalism and populism have taken over.”Ernesto Londoño and Flávia Milhorance reported from Rio de Janeiro. Julie Turkewitz reported from Bogotá. More

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      Pedro Castillo es declarado ganador en las elecciones presidenciales de Perú

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      El líder de izquierda, quien ha prometido renovar el sistema político y económico para abordar la pobreza y la desigualdad, derrotó por muy pocos votos a la hija de un expresidente encarcelado.LIMA, Perú — Sus padres eran campesinos que no aprendieron a leer. Cuando era niño, y antes de convertirse en maestro, caminaba durante horas para asistir a la escuela. Después, hace dos meses, irrumpió en la escena política de Perú como un candidato antisistema con un cautivador llamado a las urnas: “No más pobres en un país rico”.Y el lunes en la noche, casi un mes después de la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales, los funcionarios declararon a Pedro Castillo, de 51 años, como el próximo presidente de Perú. Con una votación muy cerrada, Castillo venció a Keiko Fujimori, la hija de un expresidente de derecha que se ha convertido en un símbolo prominente de la élite peruana.La victoria de Castillo, pese a haberse producido por un margen muy estrecho, es el repudio más claro a las clases dirigentes del país en 30 años. También fue la tercera derrota consecutiva para Fujimori.Castillo, un socialista, se convertirá en el primer presidente de izquierda de Perú en más de una generación, y el primero en haber vivido la mayor parte de su vida como campesino en una región andina pobre.En su discurso de victoria, desde un balcón en el centro de Lima mientras sus simpatizantes gritaban “sí se pudo”, Castillo prometió trabajar para todos los peruanos.“Llamo a la más amplia unidad del pueblo peruano, llamo a la unidad”, dijo Castillo. “Compartiremos juntos esta lucha, este emprendimiento y este esfuerzo para hacer un Perú más justo, más soberano, más digno, más humano y más unido”.Dirigiéndose a Keiko Fujimori, agregó: “No pongamos más barreras en esta travesía y no pongamos más obstáculos para sacar adelante este país”.El anuncio de su victoria se produjo después de un mes de esfuerzos por parte de Fujimori para anular unos 200.000 votos en áreas donde Castillo ganó de manera abrumadora, una medida que habría privado de sus derechos a muchos peruanos pobres e indígenas.Poco antes de que las autoridades declararan a Castillo como el presidente electo, Fujimori dijo en un discurso televisado el lunes por la noche que reconocería los resultados por respeto a la ley, pero calificó la proclamación de su contrincante como “ilegítima” e insistió de nuevo en que el partido de Castillo le había robado miles de votos.Hizo un llamado a sus simpatizantes para entrar en “una nueva etapa” en la que se mantendrán políticamente activos porque “el comunismo no llega al poder para soltarlo. Es por eso que quieren imponernos ahora una nueva Constitución”. Y añadió: “Me siento en la obligación de dejar claro que no podemos caer en ningún tipo de violencia. Tenemos derecho a movilizarnos, pero de manera pacífica”.Keiko Fujimori mientras subía al escenario poco antes de pronunciar su discurso televisado, el lunes por la noche.Sebastian Castaneda/ReutersFujimori acusó a los partidarios de Castillo de alterar las actas en todo el país. Pero en las semanas que siguieron a la votación, nadie se presentó para corroborar su afirmación central: que las identidades de cientos de trabajadores electorales habían sido robadas y sus firmas fueron falsificadas.La disputa llevó a miles de simpatizantes de los dos candidatos a las calles de Lima en un duelo de protestas cerca de la sede de la junta electoral. Muchos de los partidarios de Castillo de las regiones rurales pasaron semanas acampando para esperar su proclamación oficial como ganador.Al final, las autoridades electorales rechazaron todas las solicitudes del partido de Fujimori que exigía descontar las boletas de un recuento oficial que ubicaba a Castillo con una ventaja de 40.000 votos.“El voto del ciudadano que está en La Molina, en Miraflores, en San Isidro, tiene el mismo peso ciudadano y cívico que el pobre que está en el último rincón del país”, dijo Castillo a una multitud de simpatizantes el mes pasado, refiriéndose a distritos exclusivos de Lima.“Nunca se burlen de un hombre cuando viene con sombrero. No se burlen más de un campechano, no se burlen más de un obrero, de un rondero, de un maestro. Porque así se hace patria”, dijo Castillo. “Hoy tenemos que enseñar a la juventud, a la niñez, que todos somos iguales ante la ley”.Muchos simpatizantes de Castillo dijeron que votaron por él con la esperanza de que renueve el sistema económico neoliberal impuesto por el padre de Keiko Fujimori, Alberto Fujimori, un sistema que, según dijeron, condujo a avances iniciales en el pasado pero que al final fracasó en ayudar a millones de las personas más empobrecidas del país.Esa dolorosa disparidad se hizo más evidente cuando llegó el coronavirus. El virus ha devastado a Perú, que tiene la cifra per cápita de fallecimientos por COVID-19 más alta del mundo. Casi el 10 por ciento de su población ha caído en la pobreza en el último año.“Treinta años en los que los grandes capitalistas se han enriquecido más y en Perú hay más pobreza”, dijo Manuel Santiago, el dueño de 64 años de una tienda que votó por Castillo. “Estamos cansados de lo mismo”.Pero Castillo enfrentará enormes desafíos.Castillo mientras hablaba con sus simpatizantes desde su sede de campaña en Lima, el mes pasado.Harold Mejía/EPA vía ShutterstockEn los últimos años, la corrupción y las venganzas políticas han convulsionado al país que en un periodo de cinco años tuvo cuatro presidentes y dos congresos.Quizás de manera más significativa, Castillo, quien nunca ha ocupado un cargo público, carece de la experiencia política y del respaldo generalizado y organizado que tuvieron otros líderes de izquierda que llegaron al poder en Sudamérica.“Él como figura política representa problemas que abonarían a la inestabilidad”, dijo el politólogo peruano Mauricio Zavaleta.En la Bolivia de 2005, Evo Morales, quien se convirtió en el primer presidente indígena del país, “ganó en la primera vuelta con más del 50 por ciento del voto”, dijo Zavaleta. En Venezuela en 1998, Hugo Chávez “fue un vendaval electoral”. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, en Brasil en 2002, y Rafael Correa, en Ecuador en 2006, fueron figuras de la política tradicional que la primera vez que contendieron a la presidencia fueron elegidos con márgenes grandes.Castillo “no es de esos fenómenos”, dijo Zavaleta.Y agregó que es poco probable que Castillo cuente con el apoyo del Congreso, el ejército, los medios de comunicación, la élite o un movimiento político amplio. “Simplemente no tiene el músculo para llevar a cabo las reformas ambiciosas que ha propuesto”.Castillo había prometido reevaluar el sistema político y económico para reducir la pobreza y la desigualdad, y remplazar la Constitución vigente por una que incrementara el papel del Estado en la economía. Hizo campaña con un sombrero de campesino y, a veces, apareció a caballo o bailando con los votantes.“Es alguien que no tiene que ir a visitar un pueblo para estar en contacto con la gente y conocer sus problemas, porque viene de un pueblo”, dijo Cynthia Cienfuegos, especialista en asuntos políticos de Transparencia, una organización de la sociedad civil.“Su triunfo refleja una demanda de cambio que se ha pospuesto durante mucho tiempo”, dijo.Castillo creció en la zona montañosa del norte de Perú y, durante su juventud, limpiaba habitaciones de hotel en Lima. Después de asistir a la universidad en una ciudad en el norte del país decidió regresar a la misma provincia de las tierras altas donde creció para trabajar en una escuela sin agua corriente ni alcantarillado.Una simpatizante de Pedro Castillo en Lima, el mes pasado.Paolo Aguilar/EPA vía ShutterstockDespués de convertirse en representante sindical de los maestros, Castillo ayudó a liderar una huelga de 2017 en la que los educadores pidieron mejores salarios.Posteriormente, desapareció en buena medida del ojo público hasta este año cuando se unió a un partido marxista-leninista para postularse a la presidencia y emergió de manera sorpresiva como el líder —aunque por un estrecho margen— de la primera ronda de la contienda electoral.Durante la campaña viajó por todo el país para escuchar a los votantes, y a menudo cargaba un lápiz enorme bajo el brazo para recordarles su promesa de garantizar la igualdad de acceso a una educación de calidad.Difícilmente podría ser más distinto de Keiko Fujimori, quien tuvo una crianza privilegiada y se convirtió en la primera dama del país a los 19 años, luego de que sus padres se separaron.El padre de Keiko Fujimori, de manera similar a Castillo, llegó a la presidencia como una figura al margen de la política tradicional en uno de los momentos más complejos de la historia del país. Si bien al principio se le atribuyó a Fujimori el apaciguamiento de las violentas insurgencias de izquierda en la década de 1990, ahora muchos lo consideran como un autócrata corrupto.En una serie de juicios, Fujimori fue condenado por dirigir las actividades de un escuadrón de la muerte, por delitos de corrupción y otros crímenes. Está encarcelado desde 2007, con una breve interrupción.Su hija también se enfrenta a un proceso judicial, acusada de dirigir una organización criminal que traficaba con donaciones ilegales durante una campaña presidencial anterior. Ella niega los cargos. Si la encuentran culpable, podría ser condenada a 30 años de prisión.Castillo, quien asumirá el cargo el 28 de julio en el bicentenario de la Independencia de Perú de España, se ha presentado como un nuevo comienzo para un país con una larga historia de amiguismo y corrupción.Julie Turkewitz es jefa del buró de los Andes, que abarca Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Perú, Surinam y Guyana. Antes de mudarse a América del Sur, fue corresponsal de temas nacionales y cubrió el oeste de Estados Unidos. @julieturkewitz More

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      Pedro Castillo, Leftist Political Outsider, Wins Peru Presidency

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      Mr. Castillo, who has vowed to overhaul the political and economic system to address poverty and inequality, narrowly defeated the daughter of a jailed former president.LIMA, Peru — His parents were peasant farmers who never learned to read. As a child, he walked hours to school, before becoming a teacher himself. Then, two months ago, he burst onto Peru’s national political scene as an anti-establishment candidate with a captivating call to the ballot box: “No more poor people in a rich country.”And on Monday night, nearly a month since the second round of the presidential election, officials declared Pedro Castillo, 51, the next president of Peru. In a very close vote, he defeated Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a right-wing former president and herself a towering symbol of the Peruvian elite.Mr. Castillo’s victory, however narrow the margin, is the clearest repudiation of the country’s establishment in 30 years. It was also the third straight loss for Ms. Fujimori.Mr. Castillo, a socialist, will become Peru’s first left-wing president in more than a generation, and its first to have lived most of his life as a “campesino” — or peasant — in a poor Andean region.In a victory speech from a balcony in downtown Lima, with his supporters chanting “yes, we could” in the streets below, Mr. Castillo promised to work for all Peruvians.“I call for the broadest unity of the Peruvian people,” Mr. Castillo said. “Together we’ll share this struggle and this effort to make a more just, dignified and united Peru.”Addressing Ms. Fujimori, he added “Let’s not add more obstacles to moving this country forward.” The announcement of his victory came after a more than monthlong effort by Ms. Fujimori to have about 200,000 votes tossed out in areas where Mr. Castillo won by a landslide, an action that would have disenfranchised many poor and Indigenous Peruvians.Shortly before authorities declared Mr. Castillo president-elect, Ms. Fujimori said in a televised speech Monday evening that she would acknowledge the results out of respect for the law, but called his pending proclamation as president-elect “illegitimate” and insisted again that his party had stolen thousands of votes from her.She called on her supporters to enter into “a new phase” in which they remained politically active to “defend the Constitution and not let communism destroy it to take power definitively.” She added: “We have the right to mobilize as we have been doing and we should continue to do — but peacefully, and within the law.”Keiko Fujimori climbing onstage shortly before making her televised address on Monday evening.Sebastian Castaneda/ReutersMs. Fujimori accused Mr. Castillo’s supporters of tampering with tally sheets across the country. But in the weeks that followed the vote, no one came forward to corroborate her central claim: that the identities of hundreds of poll workers had been stolen and their signatures falsified. The dispute brought thousands of the two candidates’ supporters to the streets of Lima in dueling protests since the election. Many of Mr. Castillo’s supporters from rural regions spent weeks camping out to await the official proclamation that he had won.In the end, the election authorities dismissed all requests by Ms. Fujimori’s party to discount ballots from an official tally that put Mr. Castillo 44,163 votes ahead, with a total of 8,836,280 votes to Ms. Fujimori’s 8,792,117.“Votes from the highest mountain and farthest corner of the country are worth the same as votes from San Isidro and Miraflores,” Mr. Castillo told throngs of supporters last month, referring to two upscale districts in Lima.“No more making fun of workers, peasant leaders or teachers,” Mr. Castillo said. “Today we must teach the youth, the children, that we are all equal before the law.”Many of Mr. Castillo’s supporters said they had voted for him in the hope that he would reform the neoliberal economic system put in place by Ms. Fujimori’s father, Alberto Fujimori. That system, they said, delivered steady economic growth and tamed inflation, but ultimately failed to help millions of poor people.The painful disparity became more glaring still when the coronavirus struck. The virus has ravaged Peru, which has the highest documented per capita Covid-19 death toll in the world. Nearly 10 percent of its population has been pushed into poverty in the last year.“Thirty years of the big businessmen getting richer — and in Peru we have more poverty,” said Manuel Santiago, 64, a shop owner who voted for Mr. Castillo. “We’re tired of the same thing.”But Mr. Castillo now faces enormous challenges.Mr. Castillo speaking to supporters from his campaign headquarters in Lima last month.Harold Mejia/EPA, via ShutterstockCorruption and political vendettas have convulsed the nation in recent years, and the country has cycled through four presidents and two congresses in the past five years.Perhaps most critically, Mr. Castillo, who has never held office, lacks the political experience and popularity that buoyed other left-wing leaders who took power in South America.“As a political figure, he has a lot of problems that lead to instability,” said Mauricio Zavaleta, a Peruvian political scientist.In Bolivia in 2005, Evo Morales, who became the country’s first Indigenous president, won in the first round with more than 50 percent of the vote, he pointed out. In Venezuela in 1998, Hugo Chávez “was an electoral storm.” Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in Brazil in 2002, and Rafael Correa, in Ecuador in 2006, were established figures first elected president by wide margins.“Castillo is not part of those phenomena,” Mr. Zavaleta said.Moreover, he said, Mr. Castillo is unlikely to have the support of Congress, the military, the media, the elite or a large political movement. “He simply doesn’t have the muscle to carry out the ambitious reforms he’s proposed,” Mr. Zavaleta said.Mr. Castillo has promised to overhaul the political and economic system to address poverty and inequality, and to replace the current Constitution with one that would increase the state’s role in the economy. He campaigned wearing a traditional farmer’s hat, and sometimes appeared on horseback, or dancing with voters.“He’s someone who doesn’t have to go visit a village to be in touch with people and get to know their problems, because he comes from a village,” said Cynthia Cienfuegos, a political affairs specialist with the Peruvian civil society group Transparencia.“His triumph reflects a demand for change that’s been postponed for a long time,” she said.Mr. Castillo grew up in Peru’s northern highlands, and as a young man, he cleaned hotel rooms in Lima. After attending university at a city in northern Peru, he chose to move back to the same highland province where he grew up to run a school without running water or a sewage system. A supporter of Pedro Castillo in Lima last month.Paolo Aguilar/EPA, via ShutterstockAfter becoming a union activist for schoolteachers, Mr. Castillo helped organize a 2017 strike to push for better salaries.Then he largely disappeared from public view — until this year, when he joined with a Marxist-Leninist party to launch a bid for the presidency and emerged as the surprise leader, if by a narrow margin, in the first round of the race.As a candidate, Mr. Castillo traveled the country widely to hear from voters, often carrying a giant pencil under his arm to remind them of his promise to ensure equal access to a quality education.He could hardly be more different from Ms. Fujimori, who grew up in privilege, becoming Peru’s first lady at age 19, after her parents had separated.Like Mr. Castillo, her father swept into office as an outsider at one of the most difficult points in the country’s history. While Mr. Fujimori was initially credited with beating back violent leftist insurgencies in the 1990s, he is now scorned by many as having been a corrupt autocrat.Mr. Fujimori was convicted in a series of trials on corruption and other charges, including directing the activities of a death squad. He has been in prison, with a brief interruption, since 2007.His daughter, too, now faces prosecution, accused of running a criminal organization that trafficked in illegal campaign donations during a past presidential bid. She denies the charges. If found guilty, she could be sentenced to as long as 30 years in prison.Mr. Castillo, who will take office on July 28, the 200th anniversary of Peru’s independence from Spain, has portrayed himself as a clean start for a country with a long history of cronyism and corruption.“Let’s end this bicentennial, which has had a lot of problems along the way, and open the door so the next bicentennial is full of hope, with a future and a vision for a country in which we all enjoy and eat from the bread of the country,” Mr. Castillo told a plaza full of supporters last month. “Let’s take back Peru for Peruvians.” More

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      Fraud Claims, Unproved, Delay Peru’s Election Result and Energize the Right

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      A month after polls closed, officials have yet to declare a victor in the presidential vote, as they consider Keiko Fujimori’s demand that ballots be thrown out.LIMA, Peru — They showed up for the rally by the thousands in red and white, the colors of their right-wing movement, swapping conspiracy theories and speaking ominously of civil war, some brandishing shields with crosses meant to exalt European heritage.On the stage, their leader, the presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori, let loose on her headline issue: election fraud.Though electoral officials say her opponent, the leftist union leader Pedro Castillo, leads by more than 40,000 votes with all the ballots counted, they have yet to declare a victor a month after the polls closed, as they consider Ms. Fujimori’s demand that tens of thousands of ballots be thrown out.No one has come forward, even weeks later, to corroborate Ms. Fujimori’s claims of fraud; international observers have found no evidence of major irregularities; and both the United States and the European Union have praised the electoral process.But Ms. Fujimori’s claims have not only delayed the certification of a victor, they have also radicalized elements of the Peruvian right in a way that analysts say could threaten the country’s fragile democracy, just as it struggles to beat back the pandemic and mounting social discontent.Many in Peru have pointed out that Ms. Fujimori’s assertions echo those made by Donald J. Trump in 2020, and by Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this year. The difference, they say, is that Peru’s democratic institutions are far weaker, leaving the country more susceptible to increasing turmoil, a coup or an authoritarian turn.In Peru, those who think the election was stolen are concentrated in the upper classes of the capital, Lima, and include former military leaders and members of influential families. Some of Ms. Fujimori’s supporters have openly called for a new election, or even a military coup if Mr. Castillo is sworn in.Ms. Fujimori during a rally in Lima last month. She wants as many as 200,000 votes to be thrown out.Marco Garro for The New York Times“It’s a danger for democracy,” said the Peruvian political scientist Eduardo Dargent, calling Ms. Fujimori part of a growing “denialist global right.”“I think in the end Keiko will leave the stage,” he went on. “But a very complicated scenario for the next government has been built.”Going into the June election, Peru’s two-decade-old democracy was badly in need of a boost. The country had cycled through four presidents and two Congresses in five years, as lawmakers became enmeshed in corruption scandals and score-settling that diminished trust in political institutions.Peru has also recorded the world’s highest per capita death toll from Covid-19 and has seen the virus push nearly 10 percent of its population into poverty, highlighting cracks in the country’s economic and social safety nets.Voters could hardly have faced a starker choice when they went to the polls on June 6 to decide between Mr. Castillo, the son of peasant farmers who enjoys broad Indigenous and rural support, and Ms. Fujimori, a towering symbol of the Peruvian elite and the heir to a right-wing populist movement started three decades ago by her father, the former President Alberto Fujimori.Millions of Peruvians who did not feel represented by previous governments were eager to celebrate the rise of Mr. Castillo, who has lived most of his life in an impoverished rural region.Since the election, supporters of both candidates have taken to the streets in competing rallies.Supporters of the leftist candidate Pedro Castillo. He enjoys broad support among the nation’s Indigenous people. Marco Garro for The New York Times“We’re Peruvians, too. We want to take part in the country’s political and economic decisions,” said Tomás Cama, 38, a teacher and Castillo supporter from southern Peru, standing outside the election office on a recent day.But Mr. Castillo’s links to more radical politicians — his party is headed by a man who has praised President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela for consolidating power — and his proposal to change the Constitution to give the state a greater role in the economy have fanned fears among affluent Peruvians. Such fears have fertile ground in Peru after decades in which a violent insurgency with communist aims, the Shining Path, terrorized much of the country. They have also allowed Ms. Fujimori’s unsubstantiated fraud claims to gain strength: One recent poll showed that 31 percent of Peruvians thought the claims were credible.Alleging that Mr. Castillo’s party manipulated official tallies at polling stations across the country, Ms. Fujimori is seeking to toss out up to 200,000 votes, mainly from rural and Indigenous regions where Mr. Castillo won by a landslide.With a new president scheduled to be sworn in on July 28, many members of Peru’s elite are backing Ms. Fujimori’s efforts to nullify the votes. Hundreds of retired military officers have sent a letter to top military chiefs urging them to not recognize “an illegitimate president.” A former Supreme Court justice filed a lawsuit requesting that the entire election be annulled.The country’s best-known public intellectual, the Nobel Prize-winning author and former presidential candidate Mario Vargas Llosa, has said he supports Ms. Fujimori’s efforts because a win by Mr. Castillo would be a “catastrophe.”“That is evident to the immense majority of Peruvians,” he told a local television channel, “especially Peruvians from cities and Peruvians who are better informed.”The narrative of a stolen election has taken on racist and classist flourishes at times. On the eve of the vote, false news reports circulated on the messaging application WhatsApp that Indigenous people had surrounded Lima, implying that they would use violence if Ms. Fujimori won.In the crowd at one recent Fujimori rally, a group of young men wearing bulletproof vests and helmets marched with makeshift shields painted with the Cross of Burgundy, a symbol of the Spanish empire popular among those who celebrate their European heritage. One man flashed what looked like a Nazi salute.A Fujimoro rally in Lima last month. The narrative of a stolen election has taken on racist and classist flourishes at times. Marco Garro for The New York TimesMs. Fujimori, the granddaughter of Japanese immigrants, part of a larger Peruvian-Japanese community, has allied herself closely with the country’s often European-descended elite, just as her father eventually did.A number of her supporters have talked casually about their hope that the military will intervene.“Just for a moment, until the military can say: ‘You know what? New elections,’” said Marco Antonio Centeno, 54, a school administrator. “The alternative is totalitarianism.”At another pro-Fujimori rally, Mónica Illman, also 54, a translator who lives in an affluent part of Lima, said that until this year she had never taken part in a protest. But, citing assertions she had seen on Willax, a right-wing news outlet, she said she had been pushed to the streets by “an immense, terrible fraud.”If Mr. Castillo is declared president, she said, “there’s going to be a crisis, a civil war.”Ms. Fujimori’s election claims have also raised the profile of young right-wing activists like Vanya Thais, 26, who has been among the opening speakers at the candidate’s rallies and has used Twitter to summon some of her 40,000 followers to the streets.Vanya Thais recording a video for her social media followers last month. “This movement is here to stay,” she said.Marco Garro for The New York TimesIn an interview, Ms. Thais said she had no doubt Mr. Castillo would revive the Maoist insurgency that terrified much of Peru in the 1980s and 1990s.Ms. Thais said right-wing politicians and the business community had not taken a tough enough stance in recent years. But those days are over, she said: “This movement is here to stay.” More

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      Tácticas trumpianas amenazan la democracia en Perú

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      “Solo quiero encontrar 11.780 votos”.Fue la frase que el expresidente Donald Trump le dijo al funcionario electoral de más alto rango en Georgia mucho después de que se hiciera claro que había perdido la reelección. Todo lo que hizo Trump para darle la vuelta a las elecciones estadounidenses de 2020 fracasó. Por desgracia, sus tácticas, como subrayó hace poco Anne Applebaum en The Atlantic, les sirven de inspiración a los políticos antidemocráticos de todo el mundo. Y en ningún lugar es más evidente que en Perú.El 6 de junio, Perú celebró las elecciones presidenciales de segunda vuelta más polarizadas en 30 años. Se enfrentaron en la contienda Keiko Fujimori, hija del antiguo dictador Alberto Fujimori, y Pedro Castillo, un maestro provincial y líder sindical de izquierda. Al partido de Fujimori, Fuerza Popular, desde hace tiempo se le ha relacionado con prácticas corruptas y autoritarias, y el partido de Castillo, Perú Libre, es abiertamente marxista. Ambos candidatos tienen credenciales democráticas dudosas.Fujimori planteó su campaña como una lucha contra el comunismo basada en advertencias a los electores de que Castillo convertiría a Perú en otra Venezuela (una estrategia que convenció a muchos votantes de clase media en Lima y otras ciudades costeras). Por su parte, Castillo resonó con los electores pobres de las áreas rurales que se sienten ignorados por la élite política concentrada en Lima y profundamente decepcionados por el statu quo.Con el 100 por ciento de los votos contados, los resultados muestran que Castillo ganó por un margen minúsculo de unos 44.000 votos del total aproximado de 19 millones. El problema es que Fujimori se ha negado a aceptar la derrota, argumentando, sin fundamento alguno, que las elecciones fueron un fraude. Las autoridades electorales de Perú no han encontrado ninguna prueba de fraude y no existen motivos para dudar de su independencia. Los observadores internacionales y expertos electorales también concluyeron que las elecciones fueron limpias. A pesar de ello, el bando de Fujimori ha impulsado un movimiento equiparable a un intento de golpe electoral, que tiene a la democracia de Perú al borde del abismo.En vez de encontrar votos a su favor, como intentó hacer Trump, Fujimori ha tratado de hacer desaparecer los votos de su contrincante. Un equipo de abogados enviados a la caza de irregularidades en los bastiones rurales de Castillo identificaron 802 registros electorales, cada uno de entre 200 y 300 votos, que quieren anular con base en pequeñas irregularidades técnicas. En total, Fujimori pretende eliminar más de 200.000 votos de su rival en sus bastiones, sustentándose en criterios dudosos sin aplicación en el resto del país.Las acusaciones rayan en lo ridículo. Si existiera fraude sistémico, se habría descubierto el día de las elecciones. Habría requerido organización y coordinación, y no hay pruebas de que haya sido así. Las mesas de votación en Perú cuentan con vigilancia de agentes de policía y funcionarios electorales, observadores internacionales y, crucialmente, miles de ciudadanos y representantes de los partidos, que habrían hecho circular cualquier prueba de fraude en las redes sociales.Estas razones no han bastado para detener a Fujimori. Acusaciones infundadas de fraude han inundado las redes sociales y se repiten sin cesar en los canales de televisión, cuya abrumadora mayoría está a su favor. Los partidarios de Fujimori incluso han acosado a las autoridades electorales con manifestaciones frente a sus oficinas. Muchos incluso quieren que se anulen las elecciones.La estrategia es clara: Fujimori ha lanzado una campaña de desinformación estilo Trump con el propósito de deslegitimar las elecciones y crear una atmósfera de temor e incertidumbre. En un clima cada vez más polarizado, estas tácticas podrían generar actos violentos e incluso hacer necesaria una intervención militar.Los rumores sobre un posible golpe no son mera especulación. El pasado 16 de junio, cientos de oficiales militares retirados les enviaron a las fuerzas armadas de Perú una carta en la que declaraban, sin pruebas, que las elecciones fueron fraudulentas y exigían que los militares se abstuvieran de reconocer a Castillo como presidente.Darle la vuelta a las elecciones sería un error garrafal. Si al candidato que representa a los votantes que han sido marginalizados desde hace mucho tiempo se le niega ilícitamente la victoria, podrían desatarse manifestaciones sociales generalizadas, lo que conduciría a una crisis de gobernabilidad similar a la que sufren las naciones vecinas, Chile y Colombia. En esas circunstancias, la única opción para que Fujimori (o cualquier otra persona) lograra gobernar sería represión.¿Por qué ocurre todo esto? La campaña de Fujimori cuenta con el respaldo de prácticamente toda la clase dominante de Lima, desde líderes empresariales y medios de comunicación importantes hasta gran parte de la clase media. Estos grupos temen que Castillo lleve a Perú por un rumbo similar al de Venezuela. No obstante, Castillo también les inspira miedo porque no es uno de ellos. En un país marcado por una enorme desigualdad social, racial y regional, Castillo es un advenedizo cuyo ascenso, para muchos peruanos privilegiados, resulta amenazante.Algunos de los temores de la élite son comprensibles. Durante la década de 1980, políticas económicas estatalistas fallidas combinadas con una brutal insurgencia maoísta sumieron a Perú en un estado de hiperinflación y violencia espantosa. Algunos de los aliados de Castillo, de hecho, son izquierdistas radicales, y su programa económico original era improvisado y excéntrico.Luka Gonzales/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSin embargo, estos temores también son exagerados. Es difícil considerar a Castillo como un hombre fuerte. No tiene ni la experiencia necesaria ni una base partidista firme, y su popularidad no llega en absoluto a los niveles de la de Hugo Chávez en Venezuela, Evo Morales en Bolivia o la de otros populistas que se convirtieron en autócratas. Su partido solo ostenta 37 de los 130 escaños del nuevo Congreso, que en su mayoría corresponden a políticos de centroderecha. Castillo cuenta con pocos aliados en el poder judicial y las fuerzas armadas, y una poderosa élite empresarial y gran parte de los medios de comunicación se oponen a sus posturas. Frente a tanta oposición, casi es seguro que cualquier estrategia radical fracasaría.El temor en torno a Castillo va más allá de lo razonable. Ha transformado a contendientes legítimos de Castillo en peligrosos opositores de la democracia.Es hora de parar en seco esta locura. En vez de sacrificar a la democracia en el altar del antizquierdismo, las élites de Perú deberían aprovechar los mecanismos democráticos para moderar o bloquear las propuestas más extremas de Castillo. Dada la debilidad de Castillo, no debería ser difícil.Por su parte, Castillo debe reconocer que no resultó electo debido a sus ideas radicales, sino a pesar de ellas. Los peruanos lo consideraron el menor de dos males. Para gobernar, debe construir puentes con las fuerzas centristas y de la centroizquierda. Si no lo hace, su presidencia (y la democracia de Perú) estará en peligro.El gobierno de Joe Biden conoce bien los peligros de las acciones con miras a anular el resultado legítimo de unas elecciones. Por esta razón, destacó hace poco que las elecciones fueron un “modelo para la democracia en la región”. La comunidad internacional no debería quedarse callada ante el paulatino golpe que va tomando forma en Perú. Las democracias amenazadas necesitan nuestro apoyo.Steven Levitsky es profesor de gobierno en Harvard y coautor de How Democracies Die. Alberto Vergara es profesor de la Universidad del Pacífico, en Lima, y coeditor de Politics after Violence: Legacies of the Shining Path Conflict in Peru. More

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      After a Fraught Election, Peru’s Democracy is Hanging By a Thread

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      “I just want to find 11,780 votes.”That’s what former President Donald Trump told Georgia’s top elections official long after he had clearly lost re-election. Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 U.S. election failed. But his tactics, as Anne Applebaum recently observed in The Atlantic, have inspired anti-democratic politicians around the world. Nowhere is that more clear than in Peru.On June 6, Peru held its most polarized presidential runoff election in 30 years. The election pitted Keiko Fujimori, a daughter of the former dictator Alberto Fujimori, against Pedro Castillo, a leftist provincial teacher and union leader. Ms. Fujimori, who leads her party, Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), has long been implicated in corrupt and authoritarian practices, and Mr. Castillo’s party, Perú Libre (Free Peru), is openly Marxist. Both candidates have dubious democratic credentials.Ms. Fujimori framed her campaign as a fight against communism, telling voters that Mr. Castillo would convert Peru into another Venezuela — a strategy that won over many middle-class voters in Lima and other coastal cities. Meanwhile, Mr. Castillo appealed to poor voters in rural areas who felt ignored by the Lima-centered political elite and were deeply dissatisfied with the status quo.With 100 percent of votes counted, Mr. Castillo won by a razor-thin margin of about 44,000 votes out of nearly 19 million. But Ms. Fujimori has refused to accept defeat, baselessly claiming the election was fraudulent. Peru’s electoral authorities have found no evidence of fraud, and there is no reason to doubt their independence. International observers and election experts have also concluded that the election was clean. Nevertheless, the Fujimori camp has begun what amounts to an electoral coup attempt, pushing Peru’s democracy to the brink of collapse.Rather than find votes for herself, like Mr. Trump sought to do, Ms. Fujimori is trying to make her opponent’s votes disappear. A team of lawyers sent to hunt for irregularities in Mr. Castillo’s rural strongholds uncovered 802 election records each containing 200 to 300 votes, which they sought to have annulled based on minor technical irregularities. In total, Ms. Fujimori seeks to wipe out more than 200,000 of her rival’s votes in his strongholds based on dubious criteria not applied elsewhere in the country.The claims are preposterous. If there were systemic fraud, it would have been uncovered on Election Day. It would have required organization and coordination, of which no evidence has been found. Peruvian polling places are patrolled by electoral and law enforcement officials, international observers and, crucially, thousands of citizens and partisan representatives who would have circulated evidence of any fraud on social media.This hasn’t deterred Ms. Fujimori. Baseless claims of fraud have flooded social media and are ceaselessly repeated on television channels, which are overwhelmingly in her favor. Fujimori supporters are even harassing electoral authorities by organizing demonstrations outside their offices. Many are calling for the entire election to be annulled.The strategy is clear: Ms. Fujimori has initiated a Trump-like disinformation campaign aimed at delegitimizing the election and creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. In an increasingly polarized climate, these tactics could lead to violence and even military intervention.Talk of a coup is not mere speculation. Last Thursday, hundreds of retired military officers sent a letter to leaders of Peru’s armed forces declaring without evidence the election fraudulent and demanding that the military not recognize Mr. Castillo as president.Overturning the election would be a colossal mistake. If the candidate representing long-marginalized voters is illegitimately denied victory, it could set off widespread social protest, creating a governability crisis like those in neighboring Chile and Colombia. Under such circumstances, the only way Ms. Fujimori — or anyone else — could govern would be through repression.Why is this happening? Ms. Fujimori’s campaign is backed by nearly the entire Lima establishment, including business leaders and major media outlets, as well as much of the middle class. These groups fear that Mr. Castillo will take Peru down a path toward Venezuela. But they also fear Mr. Castillo because he is not one of them. In a country marked by vast social, racial and regional inequality, Mr. Castillo is an outsider whose ascent, for many privileged Peruvians, feels threatening.Some of the elite’s fears are understandable. During the 1980s, failed statist economic policies and a brutal Maoist insurgency plunged Peru into hyperinflation and terrible violence. Some of Mr. Castillo’s allies are indeed radical leftists, and his original economic program was improvised and outlandish.Luka Gonzales/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut these fears are also exaggerated. Mr. Castillo is hardly a strongman. He lacks experience or a solid party base, and he is nowhere near as popular as Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, Bolivia’s Evo Morales or other populists-turned-autocrats. His party holds only 37 of 130 seats in the new Congress, a majority of which are filled by right-of-center politicians. Mr. Castillo has few allies in the judiciary or the military, and he is opposed by a powerful business elite and much of the media. In the face of such opposition, a radical strategy would almost certainly fail.Fear of Mr. Castillo exceeds the bounds of reason. It has transformed legitimate opponents of Mr. Castillo into dangerous opponents of democracy.It is time to stop the insanity. Rather than sacrifice democracy on the altar of anti-leftism, Peru’s elites should use democratic politics to moderate or block Mr. Castillo’s more extreme proposals. Given Mr. Castillo’s weakness, it should not be difficult.For his part, Mr. Castillo must recognize that he was elected not because of his radical ideas but despite them. Peruvians considered him the lesser of two evils. To govern, he must build bridges to center-left and even centrist forces. If he does not, his presidency — and Peru’s democracy — will be imperiled.The Biden administration knows the danger of efforts to overturn a legitimate election result. For this reason, it recently praised the election as a “model for democracy in the region.” The international community should not remain silent in the face of Peru’s slow-moving coup. The world’s beleaguered democracies need our support.Steven Levitsky is a professor of government at Harvard and co-author of “How Democracies Die.” Alberto Vergara is a professor at Universidad del Pacífico, in Lima, Peru, and co-editor of “Politics After Violence: Legacies of the Shining Path Conflict in Peru.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Peruvian Election, Still Undecided, Pushes a Democracy to Its Brink

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      The two presidential candidates are locked in a near tie. One claims fraud and is seeking to have tens of thousands of votes nullified. The other has called his supporters into the streets.LIMA, Peru — Peru has been through a year of profound turmoil: it cycled through three presidents, suffered one of the world’s highest coronavirus death rates and watched its economy shrink more than any in the region under the weight of the pandemic.Many in the country hoped against the odds that the presidential election last Sunday would offer a new start. Instead, nearly a week after the votes were cast, Peru is again gripped by uncertainty.The two candidates are locked in a near tie. One candidate is alleging fraud and calling for as many as 200,000 votes to be nullified — a move that would disenfranchise many poor and Indigenous voters. The other has called his supporters into the streets to defend those votes.The tension is pushing democracy to the limit, analysts said, exacerbating the fissures running through a deeply divided society and raising concern about the country’s future.The country is enduring “this nuclear war in which Peruvian politics has been plunged,” said the political scientist Mauricio Zavaleta, one in which politicians believe that “the ends justify the means.”With 99 percent of votes counted, Pedro Castillo, a leftist former teacher with no past governing experience, leads Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former right-wing President Alberto Fujimori, and a symbol of the country’s establishment, by about 70,000 votes. Mr. Castillo has won about 50.2 percent of the votes counted, Ms. Fujimori 49.8 percent.But Ms. Fujimori has asked officials to toss out thousands of votes, claiming without concrete evidence that her opponent’s party has violated the voting system “in a systematic way.”Electoral authorities and observers say there has been no evidence presented yet of systematic fraud, and analysts say Ms. Fujimori’s effort will likely fail to turn the results in her favor.Electoral authorities have until Saturday to review requests from Ms. Fujimori’s party to nullify the vote tallies at 802 polling stations, where she is accusing Castillo supporters of various types of illegal activity, including changing vote counts in his favor.The polling stations are in regions Mr. Castillo won with strong margins — mainly poor and historically marginalized rural Andean areas, including Mr. Castillo’s hometown.By Thursday, a crowd of Castillo supporters had gathered outside the office of the national electoral authority. Some had traveled from far away, and said they were frustrated and worried that Ms. Fujimori was trying to steal the election.“Defend the vote!” some chanted.“These are the most disastrous elections that I have ever seen,” said Antonio Gálvez, 37, a taxi driver working by the protest. “Ms. Keiko Fujimori represents everything that is bad about Peruvian politics.”Police officers guarding the national electoral authority on Thursday.Angela Ponce/ReutersOn Thursday, the crisis intensified when a prosecutor asked a judge to jail Ms. Fujimori, who is facing corruption charges related to a previous run for president.Accused of running a criminal organization that trafficked in illegal campaign donations, Ms. Fujimori could be sentenced to 30 years in prison. Detained and released three times as the case proceeds, she is now accused by the prosecution of having contact with case witnesses, a violation of her release.If she wins the election, she will be shielded from prosecution during her five-year term.The election, and the tensions it has fueled, are exacerbating the divides in Peruvian society.Despite consistent economic growth rates over the past two decades, Peru remains a deeply unequal and divided nation, with the wealthier and whiter population in its cities reaping most of the benefits of a neoliberal economic model put in place in the 1990s by Ms. Fujimori’s father.When the pandemic ripped through Peru, it exacerbated those social and economic gaps, hitting hardest those who could not afford to stop working, who lived in cramped conditions, or who had limited access to health care in a country with a weak safety net.The elections played along the same economic, racial and class lines, with Ms. Fujimori drawing most of her support from urban areas, and Mr. Castillo finding his base in the rural highlands, home to more mixed-race and Indigenous Peruvians.Mr. Zavaleta, the political scientist, said he thought the chaos of the election, including Ms. Fujimori’s attempts to overturn votes, had “deepened the differences between Peruvians.”“And I believe that it will have relatively long-lasting effects,” he went on.Outside the election authority on Thursday, Max Aguilar, 63, said he had traveled hours by bus, from the northern city of Chimbote, to defend Mr. Castillo.“We believe that the far right has already had enough time to show us that things can be better — and they haven’t done it,” he said.“So we, the people, are saying no, that is enough. And we are betting on a change. We have a lot of confidence in Professor Castillo.”Sofía Villamil contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia. More

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      Elecciones en Perú: un modelo económico en disputa

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      En la segunda vuelta por la presidencia, la izquierda postula a un exmaestro sin experiencia de gobierno y la derecha a la hija de un exmandatario encarcelado.LIMA, Perú — En el papel, los candidatos en la boleta presidencial en Perú el domingo son un exmaestro de escuela de izquierda sin experiencia de gobierno y la hija de derecha de un expresidente encarcelado que dirigió el país con mano de hierro.Sin embargo, los votantes de Perú se enfrentan a una elección aún más elemental: seguir o no con el modelo económico neoliberal que ha dominado el país durante las últimas tres décadas, con algunos éxitos anteriores, pero que en última instancia, según los críticos, no ha proporcionado un apoyo significativo a millones de peruanos durante la pandemia.“El modelo ha fallado a un montón de gente”, dijo Cesia Caballero, de 24 años, una productora de video. La pandemia, dijo, “ha sido la gotita que rebosó el vaso”.Perú ha tenido la peor contracción económica de la región durante la pandemia, empujando a casi el diez por ciento de su población a la pobreza. El lunes, el país anunció que el número de muertos por el virus era casi el triple de lo que se había informado anteriormente, lo que elevó repentinamente su tasa de mortalidad per cápita a la más alta del mundo. Millones de personas se quedaron sin trabajo y muchas otras sin hogar.El candidato de izquierda, Pedro Castillo, de 51 años, activista sindical, promete modificar el sistema político y económico para hacer frente a la pobreza y la desigualdad, al sustituir la actual constitución por otra que otorgue al Estado un mayor papel en la economía.Su contrincante, Keiko Fujimori, de 46 años, promete mantener el modelo de libre mercado construido por su padre, Alberto Fujimori, a quien se le atribuyó inicialmente el mérito de haber hecho retroceder a las violentas insurgencias izquierdistas en la década de 1990, pero que ahora es despreciado por muchos como un autócrata corrupto.Keiko Fujimori y Pedro Castillo al final del debate la semana pasada en Arequipa.Sebastian Castaneda/ReutersLas encuestas muestran que los candidatos están casi empatados. Pero muchos votantes están frustrados por sus opciones.Castillo, quien nunca ha ocupado un cargo, se asoció con un exgobernador radical condenado por corrupción para lanzar su candidatura. Fujimori ha sido encarcelada tres veces en una investigación de lavado de dinero y se enfrenta a 30 años de prisión, acusada de dirigir una organización criminal que traficaba con donaciones ilegales de campaña durante una anterior candidatura presidencial. Ella niega los cargos.“Estamos entre el precipicio y el abismo”, dijo Augusto Chávez, de 60 años, un joyero artesanal de Lima que se inclina por votar nulo, una manera de protesta. El voto en Perú es obligatorio. “Los extremos hacen daño al país. Y son dos extremos”.Castillo y Fujimori obtuvieron cada uno menos del 20 por ciento de los votos en una saturada primera vuelta en abril que forzó la segunda vuelta del domingo.La elección sigue a un periodo de cinco años en el que el país ha pasado por cuatro presidentes y dos congresos. Y se produce en un momento en que la pandemia ha llevado el descontento de los votantes a nuevos niveles, poniendo de manifiesto la ira por la desigualdad en el acceso a los servicios públicos y la creciente frustración con los políticos señalados de escándalos de corrupción que parecen interminables y ajustes de cuentas políticos.El sistema hospitalario se ha visto tan afectado por la pandemia que muchas personas han muerto por falta de oxígeno, mientras que otras han pagado a los médicos para conseguir un lugar en las unidades de cuidados intensivos, solo para ser rechazadas en agonía.Cilindros de oxígeno vacíos en las afueras de Lima. El sistema hospitalario se ha visto tan afectado por la pandemia que muchos pacientes han muerto por falta de oxígeno.Marco Garro para The New York TimesGane quien gane el domingo, dijo la socióloga peruana Lucía Dammert, “el futuro del Perú es un futuro muy turbulento”.“Se han despertado las profundas inequidades y las profundas frustraciones de la población, y no hay una organización o un actor, llamémoslo empresa privada, Estado, sindicatos, alguien que puede darle voz a eso”.Cuando el padre de Fujimori llegó al poder en 1990 como un populista al margen de la política tradicional, no tardó en incumplir su promesa de no imponer las políticas de “choque” del libre mercado propuestas por su rival y economistas occidentales.Las medidas que aplicó —desregulación, recortes del gasto público, privatización de la industria— contribuyeron a poner fin a años de hiperinflación y recesión. La Constitución que promulgó en 1993 limitaba la capacidad del Estado para participar en actividades empresariales y acabar con los monopolios, reforzaba la autonomía del banco central y protegía las inversiones extranjeras.Los gobiernos posteriores firmaron más de una docena de acuerdos de libre comercio, y las políticas proempresariales de Perú fueron declaradas un éxito, y se les atribuyó la reducción récord de la pobreza en el país durante el auge de las materias primas de este siglo.Pero poco se hizo para solucionar la dependencia de Perú de las exportaciones de materias primas y las antiguas desigualdades sociales, o para garantizar la atención a la salud, la educación y los servicios públicos para su población.La pandemia expuso la debilidad burocrática de Perú. El país solo tenía una pequeña fracción de las camas de las unidades de cuidados intensivos que tenían sus pares, y el gobierno era lento e inconsistente a la hora de proporcionar incluso una pequeña ayuda en efectivo a los necesitados. Los trabajadores informales se quedaron sin red de seguridad, lo que llevó a muchos a recurrir a préstamos con altos intereses de bancos privados.Personas hacen fila frente a un banco en Lima. Perú ha sufrido la peor contracción económica en la región durante la pandemia, lo que ha llevado a casi el 10 por ciento de su población a la pobreza.Angela Ponce para The New York Times“La pandemia ha mostrado que el problema de fondo fue el orden de prioridades”, dijo David Rivera, economista y politólogo peruano. “Supuestamente habíamos ahorrado mucho tiempo para poder usarlo cuando hubiese crisis, y lo que hemos visto en el manejo de la pandemia… es que la prioridad seguía en lo macroeconómico y no en evitar que la gente muera y pase hambre”.Keiko Fujimori ha culpado de los problemas del país no a su modelo económico, sino a la forma en que los anteriores presidentes y otros líderes lo han utilizado. Aun así, asegura, se necesitan algunos ajustes, como aumentar el salario mínimo y los pagos de pensión para los pobres.Enmarcó su campaña contra Castillo como una batalla entre la democracia y el comunismo, y usó a veces como ejemplo al gobierno de Venezuela, de inspiración socialista, un país ahora inmerso en una crisis. Castillo, quien es de la sierra norte de Perú, se ganó el reconocimiento nacional al liderar una huelga sindical de maestros en 2017. Hace campaña con el sombrero de ala ancha de los campesinos andinos, y ha aparecido montando a caballo y bailando con sus partidarios.Keiko Fujimori en un acto de campaña. La candidata enfrenta 30 años de prisión por cargos de corrupción.John Reyes/EPA vía Shutterstock“Para nosotros que vivimos en el campo, queremos alguien que sabe lo que es trabajar en la chacra”, dijo Demóstenes Reátegui.Cuando comenzó la pandemia, Reátegui, de 29 años, fue uno de los miles de peruanos que caminaron y pidieron aventón desde Lima hasta la casa de su familia en el campo, después de que un confinamiento ordenado por el gobierno expulsó de sus puestos de trabajo a los trabajadores migrantes como él.Le llevó 28 días.Castillo ha revelado poco sobre cómo cumplir con las vagas promesas de garantizar que los recursos de cobre, oro y gas natural del país beneficien a los peruanos en general. Ha prometido no embargar los activos de las empresas, sino renegociar los contratos.Ha dicho que quiere detener las importaciones de productos agrícolas para apoyar a los agricultores locales, una política que los economistas han advertido que llevaría a un aumento de los precios de los alimentos.Pedro Castillo se dirige a sus seguidores en su último evento de campaña el jueves en Lima, Perú.Liz Tasa/ReutersSi gana, será el más claro repudio a la élite política del país desde que Alberto Fujimori asumió el poder en 1990.“¿Por qué tanta desigualdad? ¿No les indigna?”, dijo Castillo en un mitin celebrado hace poco en el sur de Perú, refiriéndose a las élites del país.“No nos pueden engañar más. El pueblo se ha despertado”, dijo. “¡Podemos recuperar el país!”.Julie Turkewitz es jefa del buró de los Andes, que cubre Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Perú, Surinam y Guyana. Antes de mudarse a América del Sur, fue corresponsal de temas nacionales y cubrió el oeste de Estados Unidos. @julieturkewitz More