More stories

  • in

    Democrats Express Deep Anxiety as Polls Show Biden Trailing Trump

    President Biden’s team emphasized that polls have failed to predict the results of elections when taken a year ahead of time.White House officials on Sunday shrugged off weekend polling that showed President Biden trailing former President Donald J. Trump, even as Democrats said they were increasingly worried about Mr. Biden’s chances in 2024.The new polling from The New York Times and Siena College found Mr. Biden losing in one-on-one matchups with former President Donald J. Trump in five critical swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead by two percentage points in Wisconsin.Although the polling is worrisome for the president, Mr. Biden still has a year to campaign, which his team emphasized on Sunday. They noted that polls have historically failed to predict the results of elections when taken a year ahead of time.“Gallup predicted an eight-point loss for President Obama only for him to win handily a year later,” said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for Mr. Biden’s campaign. “We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll.”Still, the results of the poll, and other recent surveys showing similar results, are prompting public declarations of doubts by Democrats.David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist who has expressed concerns about Mr. Biden before, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the new polling “will send tremors of doubt” through the party.“Only @JoeBiden can make this decision,” Axelrod wrote, referring to whether the president would drop out of the race. “If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”In a follow-up interview, Mr. Axelrod said he believed Mr. Biden, 80, had achieved a lot during the past three years but was rapidly losing support largely because of concern about how his age affects his performance.“Give me his record and chop 10 to 15 years off, I’d be really confident,” Mr. Axelrod said. “People judge him on his public performance. That’s what people see. That’s where the erosion has been. It lends itself to Republican messaging.”Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program on Sunday that he was concerned “before these polls.”“And I’m concerned now,” he said.“These presidential races over the last couple of terms have been very tight,” he said. “No one is going to have a runaway election here. It’s going to take a lot of hard work, concentration, resources.”Donna Brazile, a former chair of the Democratic National Committee and a supporter of Mr. Biden, said, “don’t count out Joe Biden” on ABC’s “This Week” program. But she added that Democrats should be mindful of the polling from The Times.“I would say a wake-up call once again for Democrats to be reminded that they have to go back out there, pull the coalition that allowed Joe Biden to break new ground in 2020, especially in Arizona and Georgia, but more importantly to bring back that coalition,” she said. “Without that coalition, it’s going to be a very, very difficult race.”Mr. Munoz declined to comment on the specifics of the Times/Siena poll.Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, said in a memo released on Friday — before the Times poll was public — that it would be “crucial” for Mr. Biden to show strength among key parts of his coalition in order to win.The weekend poll results, including a 10-point deficit behind Mr. Trump in Nevada, strike at the heart of the argument the president’s campaign advisers have been making for a year: that voters will back Mr. Biden once they are presented with a clear choice between him and his predecessor.In her memo, Ms. Rodríguez said “voters will choose between the extremism, divisiveness and incompetence that extreme MAGA Republicans are demonstrating — and President Biden’s historic record of accomplishment.“The American people are on our side when it comes to that choice,” she wrote.Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Mr. Biden’s campaign manager, left, said in a memo released on Friday that it would be “crucial” for Mr. Biden to show strength among key parts of his coalition in order to win.Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times, via Getty ImagesThe Times polls presented voters with that choice, and many of them, including Democrats, said they would pick Mr. Trump if the election were held today.Already, there were signs that the campaign is scrambling to address the vulnerabilities on display in the poll among young, Black and Hispanic voters.Last month, the campaign quietly started two pilot programs aimed at bolstering support among Democrats in two key states, Arizona and Wisconsin. In each state, the campaign has hired 12 full-time staff members to test their assumptions about how Mr. Biden is viewed by particular groups and what he needs to do to earn their votes.In Arizona, the new staff members in two offices in Maricopa County will focus on Latino and female voters in that state. In Wisconsin, staff members will work out of an office in Milwaukee to evaluate the president’s message for Black and young voters in the state.Campaign officials say the idea is to use the next several months to test new ways of communicating to those voters. Those include the use of “microinfluencers” who are popular on social media platforms, and “relational” campaigning, in which the campaign reaches out to voters through their network of friends rather than impersonal ads.One of the central arguments of the Biden campaign is a belief that polls taken now, by definition, do not take into account the robust campaign that will unfold during the course of the next year.Mr. Biden has already generated a significant campaign war chest. The president and Vice President Kamala Harris have $91 million in cash on hand and are expected to raise hundreds of millions more for use during the general election campaign that will begin in earnest next summer.The president’s campaign aides say they are confident the polls will shift in Mr. Biden’s direction once that money is put to use attacking Mr. Trump (or another Republican, if Mr. Trump loses the nomination) and reaching out to voters.That is similar to the argument that Mr. Axelrod made in September 2011, when Mr. Obama was trailing badly in the polls.“The president remains ahead or in a dead heat with the Republican candidates in the battleground states that will decide the election in 2012,” Mr. Axelrod said at the time. “And ultimately it is in those battleground states where voters will choose, 14 months from now, between two candidates, their records, and their visions for the country.”But Mr. Axelrod said he believed Mr. Biden is further behind now than his candidate was in 2011.He said he believed Mr. Biden would continue to run for re-election, and would likely end up facing Mr. Trump again next year. He urged Mr. Biden and those around him to begin attacking Mr. Trump politically to make it clearer what a Trump victory in 2024 would mean for the country.That kind of “competitive frame” is more important now, Mr. Axelrod said, than trying to tell people about the accomplishments that Mr. Biden has made.“I think he’ll run,” Mr. Axelrod said. “I think he will be the nominee. If so, they need to throw the entire campaign into a very, very tough competitive frame very quickly.” More

  • in

    Julie Chávez Rodríguez, la jefa de campaña de Biden, en cinco pinceladas

    Comenzó en el activismo político cuando era una niña. Es nieta de César Chávez. Trabajó con Kamala Harris y se ganó un lugar entre las personas de confianza de Biden.El presidente Joe Biden nombró el martes a Julie Chávez Rodríguez como directora de su campaña de reelección y así elevó a una asesora de alto nivel, y a la latina de más alto rango en la Casa Blanca, a uno de los puestos más intensos y examinados de la política estadounidense.Chávez Rodríguez, de 45 años, veterana del gobierno de Barack Obama y de la órbita política de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris, también trabajó en la campaña presidencial de Biden en 2020 antes de convertirse en directora de la Oficina de Asuntos Intergubernamentales de la Casa Blanca. Es nieta de Cesar Chávez, el icónico líder sindical.A continuación analizamos las cinco cosas que hay que saber sobre la elección de Chávez Rodríguez:Ha navegado por el mundo de BidenBiden tiene un pequeño círculo de colaboradores cercanos, algunos de los cuales lo conocen desde hace años. Irrumpir en ese mundo puede ser un reto, y muchos demócratas esperan que asesores clave de la Casa Blanca supervisen la operación.Pero varios demócratas dijeron que Chávez Rodríguez había impresionado a Biden, de 80 años, y a sus principales asesores, y añadieron que era vista como una persona de confianza en el equipo, con sólidas relaciones políticas.Ella “no comenzó como una persona de Biden, pero siempre ha sido una intermediaria honesta”, dijo Cristóbal Alex, quien trabajó en la campaña de Biden en 2020 y en la Casa Blanca. En ambos lugares, dijo, algunos llegaron a usar el lema “en Julie confiamos”.Chávez Rodríguez no ha dirigido una campaña, lo que la aleja de los currículos de algunos directores de campañas presidenciales anteriores, que se habían presentado a las elecciones al Congreso o estaban inmersos en el trabajo de los comités de los partidos.Pero fue subdirectora de la campaña de Biden en 2020. En la Casa Blanca, tiene contacto con gobernadores, alcaldes y otros líderes estatales y locales y dirigió los esfuerzos de coordinación de respuesta de emergencia.“La capacidad de realizar varias tareas a la vez, la capacidad de adaptarse rápidamente, de dar un paso atrás y asimilar la complejidad y luego gestionar esa complejidad… No puedo imaginar un trabajo más difícil que el que ha tenido”, dijo el gobernador Phil Murphy, demócrata de Nueva Jersey y presidente de la Asociación Nacional de Gobernadores. “No estoy minimizando ni un segundo lo que implica dirigir una campaña presidencial. Es un gran trabajo. Pero ella ha hecho un gran trabajo”.… y en la órbita de HarrisTambién está muy vinculada a Harris, quien puede atraer la atención de los votantes debido a la edad de Biden.Chávez Rodríguez, quien es californiana, trabajó como directora estatal de Harris cuando era senadora por California y en su campaña presidencial.“Creo que sus profundas relaciones con el equipo central de Biden y su profunda relación con la oficina de la vicepresidenta, la convierten en la candidata ideal”, dijo Juan Rodriguez, un estratega que trabajó con ella (sin parentesco, dijo) bajo el mandato de Harris.Una mujer de color es el rostro de la campaña de reelección de BidenDurante la última campaña presidencial, Biden enfrentó críticas por la blancura de su círculo más cercano.Ahora que trata de revitalizar los elementos básicos de la coalición multirracial que lo llevó a la presidencia, algunos demócratas afirman que Chávez Rodríguez ofrece una representación vital en los niveles más altos de la política estadounidense.“La gente de la comunidad hispana lo está sintiendo”, dijo Cecilia Muñoz, que dirigió el Consejo de Política Interior durante el gobierno de Obama, la primera persona hispana en ocupar ese puesto.Se inició muy temprano en el activismo políticoChávez Rodríguez, que fue detenida a los 9 años durante una protesta, ha visto cómo su vida familiar y profesional coinciden.Valerie Jarrett, que trabajó como asesora principal del expresidente Obama, recordó que Chávez Rodríguez trabajó en la dedicación de un monumento nacional a su abuelo, pero se mostró reacia a posar para la foto, alegando que tenía obligaciones profesionales. (Dolores Huerta, que trabajó estrechamente con Chávez, insistió en que se uniera, dijo Jarrett).El momento demostró una “cualidad de no tener ego, lo que, digamos, es inusual en los altos niveles”, dijo Jarrett.Si ese legado familiar es significativo para los votantes es otro tema, dijo Matthew Garcia, un profesor de Dartmouth que ha escrito sobre Chávez, al señalar que United Farm Workers (UFW), el sindicato que cofundó, ha perdido influencia.“Puede que funcione con los baby boomers, pero las nuevas generaciones tienen ideas diferentes sobre la UFW, si es que tienen alguna idea”, dijo.Sin embargo, Biden puso un busto de Chávez en el Despacho Oval.Se enfrenta a una tarea difícilAunque Biden, como titular, tiene muchas ventajas, también tiene claras desventajas. Y en un país profundamente polarizado, las primeras encuestas muestran una campaña electoral competitiva.Con este telón de fondo, Chávez Rodríguez debe ayudar rápidamente a construir una gran operación y equilibrar las responsabilidades de gobierno de Biden con la campaña, mientras se adapta a dirigir una campaña por primera vez.“El currículum tradicional de un director de campaña para un candidato a la presidencia de Estados Unidos suele ser: ser blanco y ser hombre”, dijo Muñoz. “Si eres una mujer de color, casi por definición tienes que llegar por una vía no tradicional. Pero te diré una cosa: el presidente sabe lo que ella puede hacer”.Katie Glueck es reportera política nacional. Antes, fue corresponsal política sénior de Metro y reportera principal en el Times. También cubrió la política para la oficina de McClatchy en Washington y para Politico. @katieglueck More

  • in

    Julie Chávez Rodríguez: 5 Things to Know About Biden’s Campaign Manager

    President Biden on Tuesday named Julie Chávez Rodríguez as the campaign manager for his re-election effort, elevating a senior adviser and the highest-ranking Latina in the White House to one of the most intense and scrutinized jobs in American politics.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, 45, a veteran of the Obama administration and of Vice President Kamala Harris’s political orbit, also worked on Mr. Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign before becoming director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. She is the granddaughter of Cesar Chávez, the iconic labor leader.Here are five things to know about the selection of Ms. Chávez Rodríguez:She has navigated Bidenworld …Mr. Biden has a small circle of close aides, some of whom have known him for years. Breaking into that world can be a challenge, and many Democrats expect that key advisers at the White House will oversee the operation.But several Democrats said that Ms. Chávez Rodríguez had impressed Mr. Biden, 80, and his top advisers, adding that she was often seen as a trustworthy team player with strong political relationships.She “didn’t start off as a Biden person, but she’s always been an honest broker,” said Cristóbal Alex, who worked on the 2020 Biden campaign and in the White House. In both places, he said, some came to embrace the slogan “in Julie we trust.”She has not managed a campaign before, a departure from the résumés of some past presidential campaign managers who had run congressional races or were steeped in party committee work.But she was a deputy campaign manager on the 2020 Biden campaign. At the White House, she dealt regularly with governors, mayors and other state and local leaders and led emergency response coordination efforts.“The ability to multitask, the ability to move on a dime, to be able to step back and sort of take in the complexity and then manage through that complexity — I can’t imagine a more challenging job than the one she’s had,” said Gov. Phil Murphy, a New Jersey Democrat and the chair of the National Governors Association. “I’m not making light of what it’s like to run a presidential campaign for a second. It’s a big job. But she’s had a big job.”… and Harris’s orbit.She is also closely connected to Ms. Harris, who may draw particular attention from voters because of Mr. Biden’s age.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, a Californian, served as Ms. Harris’s state director when she was a California senator, and on her presidential campaign.“Her deep relationships with Biden’s core team and a deep relationship with the vice president’s office, I think, makes for the ideal candidate,” said Juan Rodriguez, a strategist who worked with her (no relation, he said) under Ms. Harris.A woman of color is now the face of Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign.During the last presidential campaign, Mr. Biden at times faced criticism over the whiteness of his inner circle.As he moves now to energize core elements of the multiracial coalition that delivered him the presidency, some Democrats said Ms. Chávez Rodríguez offered vital representation at the highest levels of American politics.“People in the Hispanic community are feeling that,” said Cecilia Muñoz, who directed the Domestic Policy Council during the Obama administration, the first Hispanic person to hold that job.She got an early start in political activism.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, who was arrested at age 9 during a protest, has seen her family and professional lives overlap.Valerie B. Jarrett, who served as a senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, recalled that Ms. Chávez Rodríguez worked at the dedication of a national monument to her grandfather, but was reluctant to join a family photo, citing professional obligations. (Dolores Huerta, who worked closely with Mr. Chávez, insisted she join, Ms. Jarrett said.)The moment demonstrated an “egoless quality, which is, let’s say, unusual oftentimes in high levels,” Ms. Jarrett said.Whether that family legacy is meaningful to voters is another matter, said Matthew J. Garcia, a Dartmouth professor who has written about Mr. Chávez, noting that the United Farm Workers, the union he co-founded, has lost clout.“It may work with baby boomers, but the newer generation have different ideas about the U.F.W., if they have any ideas at all,” he said.Mr. Biden, however, placed a bust of Mr. Chávez in the Oval Office.She is walking into a difficult job.While Mr. Biden, as the incumbent, has many advantages, he also has clear liabilities. And in a deeply polarized country, early surveys show a competitive general election race.Against that backdrop, Ms. Chávez Rodríguez must quickly help build a huge operation and balance Mr. Biden’s governing responsibilities with campaigning, while adjusting to leading a campaign for the first time.“The traditional résumé of a campaign manager for a candidate for president of the United States is usually to be white and to be male,” Ms. Muñoz said. “If you’re a woman of color, you, almost by definition, have to come up through a nontraditional route. But I’ll tell you what — the president knows what she can do.” More

  • in

    Biden Picks Julie Chávez Rodríguez as 2024 Campaign Manager

    As President Biden announced his re-election bid on Tuesday, he named Julie Chávez Rodríguez as his campaign manager, elevating a senior adviser and the highest-ranking Latina in the White House.Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, a veteran of the Obama administration and of Vice President Kamala Harris’s political orbit, also worked on Mr. Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign before becoming director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. She is the granddaughter of Cesar Chávez, the prominent labor leader for farmworkers.Mr. Biden has a small circle of close aides, many of whom have known him for decades, and breaking into that world can be a challenge. But several Democrats said that Ms. Chávez Rodríguez had impressed top advisers, adding that she was seen as a trustworthy team player with strong political relationships and experience.She is also closely connected to Ms. Harris. Ms. Chávez Rodríguez, a Californian herself, served as Ms. Harris’s state director when she was a California senator, and on her 2020 presidential campaign.Quentin Fulks, a Democratic strategist who served as campaign manager for Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia in his successful re-election bid last year, was named principal deputy campaign manager.“Julie and Quentin are trusted, effective leaders that know the stakes of this election and will bring their knowledge and energy to managing a campaign that reaches all Americans,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. More