More stories

  • in

    Joe Biden lands in Saudi Arabia seeking to halt shift towards Russia and China

    Joe Biden lands in Saudi Arabia seeking to halt shift towards Russia and ChinaAnalysis: US president aiming to convince Jeddah to increase oil supply in order to calm global energy markets00:24Joe Biden landed in the Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah to a tepid welcome from the Saudi crown prince whose country he once pledged to make a “pariah” on the world stage.While Saudi Arabia announced it would open its airspace to flights from Israel, making Biden the first US president to fly directly from Tel Aviv to the kingdom, expectations of further gains during his visit remained low. The US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told journalists onboard Air Force One not to expect any bilateral announcements in response to American demands that Saudi Arabia pump more oil to calm global energy markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Fist bumps as Joe Biden arrives to reset ties with ‘pariah’ Saudi ArabiaRead moreSaudi Arabia is keen to prove its independence from US interests as it increasingly courts Russia and China.“From the start, my aim was to reorient – but not rupture – relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years,” Biden wrote in the Washington Post prior to his visit, sidestepping his pledge on the campaign trail to make Saudi Arabia “a pariah”, and the later release of a US intelligence report stating that Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince, “approved” an operation to capture and murder the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.“It’s a completely different Saudi Arabia, one that in many ways has modernised and opened up a bit, but is also seeing greater crackdowns – and the Biden administration is brutally aware of all this,” said Dina Esfandiary of the NGO Crisis Group.Biden’s visit means carefully stage-managing relations with Prince Mohammed, the Kingdom’s powerful de facto ruler, who observers say has the upper hand as Biden courts his goodwill at a time of rising global oil prices mounting a challenge to his presidency domestically.The two shared a fist bump on Biden’s arrival, although the president later warmly shook hands with the king, Salman bin Abdulaziz. At the start of the president’s Middle East trip, officials said he would avoid close contact such as shaking hands as a precaution against Covid.The US president is under intense pressure to repair the fragile relationship between two nations, one that traditionally relied on the kingdom liberally supplying oil to the global market in exchange for the US’s backing in areas of security and defence.This has increasingly shifted in recent years, exacerbated as the relationship between Biden and Prince Mohammed has soured and Saudi Arabia looks to Russia and China to diversify its interests.“The message from Saudi is you can’t tell us what to do, we’ll help you as far as it suits us but we won’t go against our own interests,” said Esfandiary.Cinzia Bianco, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, agreed. “The Saudi leadership has learned to do without seeking validation from the United States, and Bin Salman in particular – he’s learned to survive and maybe even thrive within the region and to some degree internationally, without getting validation from the US administration,” she said.Khashoggi’s fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, said that, with the visit to Saudi Arabia, Biden was reneging on previous promises to prioritise human rights. “It’s a very huge backing down actually,” Cengiz told the Associated Press. “It’s heartbreaking and disappointing. And Biden will lose his moral authority by putting oil and expediency over principles and values.”Saudi Arabia’s recent cooperation with Russia has included an agreement for Rosatom, a Russian state company, to build a nuclear power plant in the kingdom, as well as signing an agreement last year to “explore ways to develop military to strengthen the military and defence cooperation” between the two countries according to the deputy defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman.China is historically the largest importer of Saudi Arabian oil, while the kingdom has bought Chinese arms including drones and fighter aircraft. Last November, US intelligence agencies concluded that Saudi Arabia is manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with the help of China, according to satellite imagery.Bianco stressed that the US administration saw Biden’s visit as a vital opportunity to intervene and warm relations before Saudi Arabia moves ahead with Chinese and Russian deals that largely remain in their infancy. “The US administration sees an opportunity to undo all of that or take a step back and create some space,” she said. “There’s a lot on paper rather than in reality, and there’s still space for the administration to try to create some distance between Saudi Arabia, Russia and China.”Yet as Biden landed in Jeddah to discuss how to increase the global supply of oil in order to bring down prices, doubts persisted as to whether he would fly home with anything to show for his visit at all. Shortly before his arrival, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia had more than doubled its imports of Russian oil in order to free up more of its own crude for export, shunning demands for sanctions from the west while increasing profit margins amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.“Maybe the US administration had good intentions when it began setting up this trip, but ultimately it’s making them look bad – they’re losing the public relations war,” said Esfandiary. “It’s not clear that they’re going to make any gains, my sense is that everyone will walk away disappointed.”TopicsUS foreign policyJoe BidenUS politicsSaudi ArabiaMiddle East and north AfricaBiden administrationMohammed bin SalmananalysisReuse this content More

  • in

    The Guardian view on Biden’s risky gamble: betting on lowering oil prices | Editorial

    The Guardian view on Biden’s risky gamble: betting on lowering oil pricesEditorialThe climate agenda risks being derailed by energy market disruptions caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia this month highlights the paradox of American power. The US has the economic heft to punish an opponent – but not enough to alter the behaviour of a determined adversary. Sanctions will see Russia’s economy contract by 9% next year. But Washington needs more nations to join its camp to halt Moscow’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. Mr Biden has been forced to prioritise war objectives over ethics in meeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who the CIA says ordered the barbaric murder of the prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi.The havoc that Russia’s war has caused on the world’s energy markets is contributing to an economic crisis that is playing into the hands of Mr Biden’s domestic opponents. This highlights the west’s failure to confront the climate emergency with a less carbon-intensive economic model. The green agenda risks being derailed by sky-high hydrocarbon prices. This scenario could have been averted if western nations had accelerated their net zero agendas by driving down energy demand – the lack of UK home insulation is one glaring failure – and spending on renewables to achieve energy security. Instead, this week the G7 watered down pledges to halt fossil fuel investment over fears of winter energy shortages as Moscow squeezes supplies.Boycotts and bans against Russia, even as they take a toll on the global economy, will cause ordinary Russians hardship. But this has not moved Vladimir Putin. Soaring crude prices fuel Moscow’s war machine. A price cap on Russia’s petroleum exports might choke off the cash. But a concern is that China and India will buy Mr Putin’s oil at a price that still lets the Kremlin profit. Clever technical solutions mask hard choices. Sanctions drive up energy prices for consumers unless there are alternative supplies available. Right now, to bring down oil prices means producing more planet-destroying energy. That requires US engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which bear responsibility for the disastrous Yemen war. Washington might have to woo Venezuela and Iran, nations which will play Moscow off against the west.The US is pursuing a three-pronged strategy: increasing pressure on Russia; getting more oil into markets to bring prices down; and allowing central banks to raise interest rates to levels that look as if they might cause a recession. The latter is designed to signal to oil producers that energy prices will collapse. The painful recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s played a part in bringing down oil prices after energy shocks – and contributed to the Soviet Union’s disintegration. But this took 15 years. Mr Putin’s Russia may not be as powerful as its forerunner. It might be more brittle than the Soviet Union. But there are few signs of imminent collapse.As the west seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons, there seems to be a global “gold rush” for new fossil fuel projects defended as temporary supply measures. The risk, with the US as the largest hydrocarbon producer, is that the world becomes locked into an irreversible climate catastrophe. Europe might become as reliant on US gas as it once was on Russian gas. Donald Trump proved America could be an unreliable ally. Rightwing supreme court justices have hobbled Mr Biden’s power to limit harmful emissions. Meanwhile, China has emerged as a world leader in renewable energy as well as the metals on which it depends. Mr Biden had wanted to transition the US away from oil. Yet during his time in office the sector’s market value has doubled because prices have risen. Jarringly, as the climate emergency grows ever more urgent, fossil fuel appears the pivot on which the war in Ukraine will turn.TopicsUkraineOpinionClimate crisisJoe BidenUS politicsSaudi ArabiaMohammed bin SalmanOileditorialsReuse this content More

  • in

    ‘Tuve que irme’: Hong Kong se debate entre el legado británico y el futuro autoritario de China

    HONG KONG — El día en que Hong Kong fue devuelto a China hace un cuarto de siglo, el fabricante de fideos de Queen’s Road trabajaba como lo había hecho durante días y décadas previas, transformando harina y agua en el sustento de una ciudad llena de refugiados del continente. Para satisfacer los diversos gustos, elaboraba tiernos fideos de Shanghái y pasta al huevo cantonesa, resbaladizos envoltorios de wonton del sur de China y gruesas masas de dumpling muy apreciadas en Pekín.Cuando la bandera de cinco estrellas de la República Popular China sustituyó a la Union Jack el 1 de julio de 1997, llovió y llovió, y el agua subió rápidamente por Queen’s Road y sus afluentes. Algunos tomaron el diluvio como un presagio del control comunista, otros como un ritual de purificación para limpiar Hong Kong del imperialismo occidental.La tormenta no tuvo mayor significado para To Wo, quien administraba la tienda de fideos con su familia. To seguía trabajando todos los días del año, introduciendo la masa en máquinas ruidosas y vaciando tantos sacos de harina que todo quedaba empolvado de blanco, incluso el santuario del dios de la cocina.“Estaba ocupado”, dijo. “No tenía mucho tiempo para el miedo”.En los 25 años transcurridos desde el traspaso, la única constante ha sido el cambio, tan definido como desafiado por los habitantes de Queen’s Road, la avenida con más historia de Hong Kong. A su alrededor, la ciudad se ha transformado: por la vertiginosa expansión económica de China continental, que amenaza con hacer innecesario esta ciudad portuaria internacional, pero también por el aplastamiento de las libertades por parte de los actuales gobernantes de Hong Kong, que han llenado las cárceles de jóvenes que ahora son presos políticos.A medio camino de 2047, fecha oficial en el que finalizará el periodo  “un país, dos sistemas”, Hong Kong ha entrado en un purgatorio incierto.Para el fabricante de fideos To Wo, la ciudad ofrecía la esperanza de una vida mejor que la que tenía cuando huyó de China.A los 20 años, To escapó de las privaciones del sur de China para instalarse en Queen’s Road, la primera vía construida por los británicos tras tomar Hong Kong como botín de la Guerra del Opio.Bautizada en honor a la reina Victoria, la carretera trazaba la línea costera de una avariciosa potencia colonial. A medida que las instituciones del imperio —bancos, casas comerciales, escuelas, lugares de culto— brotaban a lo largo de ella, Queen’s Road fue evolucionando, y cada afluencia de nuevos habitantes modificaba su carácter. A pesar de la permanencia de los hitos de la calle, sus habitantes estaban menos arraigados, con escaso control sobre el futuro de la ciudad.En 1997, el gobierno chino prometió a Hong Kong una importante autonomía durante 50 años para preservar las libertades que la convirtieron en una capital financiera mundial, por no hablar de una de las metrópolis más emocionantes del planeta.Mientras To ha vivido ahí, Queen’s Road y sus estrechos callejones han sido una encrucijada mundial. Había casas financieras construidas sobre las fortunas del comercio del opio, tiendas de oro que prometían sólidas inversiones a los sobrevivientes de la agitación política, marcas de lujo europeas y comerciantes de aletas de tiburón y hierbas utilizadas en la medicina tradicional china.Rush hour on Queen’s Road Central.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesEn los primeros años tras el traspaso, los legisladores se deleitaron con un poder del que habían carecido durante la mayor parte del gobierno británico, en un edificio diseñado por los arquitectos responsables de una parte del Palacio de Buckingham. En el Tribunal Superior, en un tramo de Queen’s Road llamado Queensway, los jueces usaban pelucas siguiendo la moda británica. La clase empresarial, procedente de la élite de Shanghái, Londres y Bombay, entre otras ciudades, se sentía segura en el imperio de la ley.Durante más de una década, Pekín respetó en gran medida este acuerdo político que rige Hong Kong, llamado “un país, dos sistemas”. La fecha límite de 2047, cuando Pekín tomaría el control político total, parecía convenientemente lejana, aunque los hongkoneses tienen la costumbre de ser prevenidos.Los últimos tres años han comprimido el tiempo. En 2019, millones de manifestantes marcharon por Queen’s Road y otras avenidas, tal y como habían hecho en el pasado para frustrar las impopulares restricciones del gobierno. Esta vez, los enfrentamientos entre la policía y los manifestantes cortaron cualquier filamento de confianza. Durante meses, el gas lacrimógeno, el gas pimienta y las balas de goma envolvieron los centros comerciales. Una ley de seguridad nacional de dos años de antigüedad ha criminalizado la disidencia, y se ha detenido a personas por aplaudir en apoyo de un activista encarcelado.Ahora, a mitad de camino hacia 2047, Hong Kong ha entrado en un purgatorio incierto. Su desaparición ya se ha proclamado antes. En todas esas ocasiones —después de las plagas y los disturbios apoyados por los comunistas, la represión británica y el nerviosismo previo a la entrega— el territorio se ha regenerado.A pesar de la permanencia de los hitos que caracterizan a la avenida, su gente está menos arraigada y tiene poco control sobre el futuro de la ciudad.Queen’s Road fue la primera vía construida por los británicos cuando llegaron, y ha sido una encrucijada mundial durante más de cien años.Una metrópolis que rivaliza con Nueva York, Tokio o Londres no desaparecerá de la noche a la mañana. Pero la promesa de Pekín de mantener la ciudad en una campana de cristal política durante 50 años se ha hecho añicos. Los pobres de Hong Kong son cada vez más pobres, y el número de personas que se apresuran a marcharse ha aumentado.Los cambios sísmicos en Hong Kong están obligando a los residentes a reflexionar sobre lo que significa ser de este lugar en constante evolución. A lo largo de Queen’s Road —la avenida más antigua de una ciudad programada para reinventarse— esta cuestión de identidad resuena de forma muy diferente para un político, un manifestante y un fabricante de fideos.“Todo ha cambiado en Hong Kong”, dijo To. “Todos tenemos destinos diferentes”.‘Enfrentar la realidad’El 30 de junio de 1997, mientras sonaba por última vez “God Save the Queen”, Eunice Yung, entonces estudiante de secundaria, estaba enfurruñada en su casa, en un apartamento de Queen’s Road. Sus decepcionantes resultados en los exámenes, que le impedían obtener un cupo universitario en Hong Kong, ocupaban su mente.“Cuando pienso en el traspaso, me quedo en blanco”, dijo Yung. “Es una pena”.Al igual que muchos niños nacidos de inmigrantes recientes, Yung comenzó a trabajar cuando tenía 4 o 5 años, sentada con su bisabuela en una mesa, haciendo estallar discos de metal en la parte posterior de imanes de juguete. Cuando caminaba a su escuela católica, pasaba por los mercados de Queen’s Road, donde se vendían mariscos secos, y por un templo al que los pescadores acudían a rendir culto en barco, antes de que las obras de recuperación empujaran la avenida tierra adentro.Eunice Yung distribuyendo regalos del Día del Padre a sus electores. “En Hong Kong tenemos que enfrentar la realidad de que somos parte de China”.Los cambios sísmicos en Hong Kong están obligando a los residentes a reflexionar sobre lo que significa ser de este lugar en constante evolución.Yung terminó por encontrar cupo universitario en Vancouver para estudiar computación. Sin saberlo, se unió a la corriente de hongkoneses que emigraban por miedo a los nuevos gobernantes del territorio.Después de cada paroxismo en China —la caída de la dinastía Qing, la toma del poder por los comunistas, la Revolución Cultural, la masacre de Tiananmen— la población de Hong Kong se llenó de refugiados. Los años que precedieron al traspaso de poderes, cuando cientos de miles de personas huyeron a Occidente en busca de seguridad, fueron el único momento, hasta ahora, en que la población disminuyó.Yung no estaba en Canadá porque tuviera miedo por Hong Kong. Regresó a su país, se licenció en Derecho y compareció en los tribunales de Queensway. En 2016, ganó un escaño en el Consejo Legislativo como miembro de una fuerza política pro-Pekín.Yung, de 45 años, ha criticado las obras de arte en los museos financiados por el gobierno que desprecian al Partido Comunista Chino. Dijo que la ridiculización pública de los líderes chinos es el resultado de que “la gente perdió la cabeza”.En el museo M+. “En vez de expresarnos sin límites, debemos defender la dignidad de nuestro país”, dijo Yung, la funcionaria.Desde 2019, la ciudad se ha dividido entre los que apoyaron a los manifestantes y los que temían que se estuviera destruyendo la reputación favorable para los negocios de Hong Kong.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York Times“Algunos de los medios de comunicación extranjeros dicen que ‘China es siempre una cosa monstruosa, y que estás bajo su control y no tienes libertad’”, dijo Yung. “Pero en Hong Kong tenemos que enfrentar la realidad de que somos parte de China”.Sin pruebas, los políticos a favor de Pekín han acusado a quienes se unieron a las protestas de estar en connivencia con la Agencia Central de Inteligencia. La temible ley de seguridad ha llevado a los sindicatos y a los periódicos a cerrar por miedo a penas de prisión perpetua. Casi 50 políticos y activistas por la democracia han sido encarcelados en virtud de las nuevas normas. Comparecerán ante el Tribunal Superior de Queensway a finales de este año.En la actualidad, no hay protestas masivas en Queen’s Road ni en ningún otro lugar de Hong Kong.Queen’s Road West in the evening.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times“Creo que Hong Kong sigue siendo una ciudad muy libre”, dijo Yung. “Este tipo de manifestaciones, si las permitimos hasta cierto punto, dañarán nuestros sentimientos hacia nuestro país”.Hong Kong se ha dividido entre los que apoyaron a los manifestantes y los que se preocuparon por la destrucción de la reputación favorable a los negocios de Hong Kong. En 2019, HSBC, el banco más venerable de Hong Kong y uno de los primeros parangones de la globalización, fue acusado de cerrar una cuenta vinculada al financiamiento participativo pro democracia. Los manifestantes salpicaron con pintura roja los leones gigantes que custodian la sede del banco en Queen’s Road.Hong Kong no desaparecerá de la noche a la mañana. Pero la promesa de Pekín de mantener a la ciudad en una campana de cristal política durante 50 años se ha hecho añicos.En la actualidad no hay protestas masivas en Queen’s Road ni en ningún otro lugar de Hong Kong.“Cuando la gente le enseña a sus hijos a faltarle el respeto a su país, a decirles que vamos a derrocar a nuestro gobierno, eso hace daño”, dijo Yung. “En vez de expresarnos sin límites, debemos defender la dignidad de nuestro país”.‘Cuestionar nuestra identidad’El 1 de julio de 2019, el aniversario del traspaso, cientos de miles de residentes de Hong Kong se reunieron para una marcha a favor de la democracia a lo largo de Queen’s Road. Había familias de clase media con termos de agua, pensionistas en camiseta y estudiantes con paraguas amarillos que simbolizaban el movimiento de protesta.Separándose de la multitud, Brian Leung se desvió por una calle lateral que llevaba al nuevo edificio del Consejo Legislativo, uniéndose a otros manifestantes que ocultaban su identidad con máscaras. Asediaron el edificio, rompieron cristales, retorcieron las puertas metálicas y garabatearon grafitis contra el partido comunista.Mientras la policía se acercaba, Leung se subió a una mesa, se quitó la máscara y pronunció un manifiesto democrático. Fue el único manifestante que dio la cara.Oficiales de policía frente al Parque Victoria en el aniversario de la masacre de la Plaza de Tiananmen. En años anteriores, grandes multitudes se reunieron en el parque para conmemorar ese día.Una imagen de teléfono celular de una vela encendida y números que conmemoran el aniversario de la masacre de la Plaza de Tiananmen, que comenzó hace 33 años el 4 de junio.Hijo de migrantes chinos que nunca terminó la secundaria, Leung, que ahora tiene 28 años, es un ejemplo de la promesa de Hong Kong. Creció en una vivienda pública y fue el primer miembro de su familia en asistir a la Universidad de Hong Kong.Era una época en la que muchos jóvenes de Hong Kong se sentían orgullosos de su doble identidad: chinos, sí, pero de un tipo especial que apreciaba el derecho consuetudinario británico y los pasteles de nata de origen portugués.Cuando Pekín celebró los Juegos Olímpicos de verano en 2008, Leung animó a los equipos de Hong Kong y de China.“Creo que todos queríamos darle una oportunidad a China, y pensamos que con la vuelta a la madre patria, en Hong Kong podríamos formar parte de aquella gran nación”, dijo.La sociedad civil de Hong Kong, impulsada por la juventud, marcó la diferencia. Un grupo de adolescentes ayudó a convencer al gobierno de que archivara un plan de estudios pro-Pekín.Las marchas del verano de 2019, al igual que un plantón estudiantil cinco años antes, tuvieron un desenlace más doloroso. La policía respondió a los manifestantes sin líderes con una fuerza cada vez mayor, deteniendo a miles de adolescentes. Para cuando la pandemia de coronavirus restringió las concentraciones en 2020, una quietud había caído sobre Hong Kong.An intersection on Queensway..En la actualidad, solamente el dos por ciento de los jóvenes de Hong Kong se consideran “chinos”, según una encuesta local. Más de tres cuartas partes se identifican como “hongkoneses”. Hay orgullo en el cantonés, el patois de Hong Kong, en lugar del mandarín del continente.“Cuando quedó claro que China ya no estaba interesada en las reformas liberales, empezamos a cuestionar nuestra identidad como chinos”, dijo Leung, que editó una colección de ensayos llamada Hong Kong Nationalism. “Empezamos a pensar: ‘somos hongkoneses’”.Para los millones de personas que huyeron de la agitación en China, Hong Kong sirvió durante más de un siglo como refugio, pero también como estación de paso hacia un lugar mejor. Con el tiempo, la transitoriedad de Hong Kong se asentó. El territorio se convirtió en el hogar de millones de chinos, muchos de los cuales adoptaron nombres occidentales para facilitar la burocracia británica: Kelvin y Fiona, Gladys y Alvin, Brian y Eunice.​​Ahora, Hong Kong se está deshaciendo de sus residentes. En un mes de este año, salieron del aeropuerto tantas personas como las que emigraron a Hong Kong en todo 2019. Las continuas restricciones por el coronavirus hacen que casi nadie venga. Muchos de los activistas que no están en prisión están en el exilio. Taxistas, contadores y profesores se han marchado a nuevas vidas en el extranjero.Después de cada paroxismo en China —la caída de la dinastía Qing, la toma del poder por los comunistas, la Revolución Cultural, la masacre de Tiananmen— la población de Hong Kong se llenó de refugiados.Ahora, la ciudad se está deshaciendo de sus residentes. En un mes de este año, salieron del aeropuerto tantas personas como las que emigraron a Hong Kong en todo 2019.Horas después de que la policía desalojara el Consejo Legislativo con gases lacrimógenos en julio de 2019, Leung abandonó Hong Kong, con el corazón acelerado mientras el avión se elevaba en el aire.“No pude contener las lágrimas”, dijo Leung, que ahora vive en Estados Unidos. “Quiero mucho a Hong Kong. Por eso luché por ella y por eso tuve que irme”.No ha vuelto desde entonces.‘Ese era mi destino’To, el fabricante de fideos, arriesgó su vida para escapar de China en 1978. Se entrenó durante más de un año, perfeccionando su natación y aumentando su volumen para la caminata a través de las colinas. Su primera tentativa fracasó. En la segunda, las lluvias llenaron de hongos los pasteles de luna empaquetados para el viaje. Finalmente, tras siete noches en los bosques, vio a Hong Kong al otro lado del agua.“Nadamos hacia la luz”, dijo.Para los millones de personas que huyeron de la agitación en China, Hong Kong sirvió durante más de un siglo como refugio, pero también como estación de paso hacia un lugar mejor.Era una época en la que muchos jóvenes de Hong Kong se sentían orgullosos de su doble identidad: chinos, sí, pero de un tipo especial que apreciaba el derecho consuetudinario británico y los pasteles de nata de origen portugués.Queen’s Road deslumbró a To con sus coloridos carteles que anunciaban todo tipo de delicias: abulón y té blanco agujas de plata, whisky escocés y pasteles de crema.La China que había dejado era desesperadamente pobre. Sólo en dos ocasiones durante su infancia se sintió completamente lleno. Cuando la hermana de su esposa visitaba a su familia en China, hacía equilibrios con cañas de bambú cargadas de jarras de aceite de cocina sobre los hombros y se ponía varias capas de ropa para repartir entre sus parientes.Hoy en día, en algunas zonas de Guangdong, la provincia del sur de China vecina de Hong Kong, el auge económico más rápido y sostenido del mundo ha elevado el nivel de vida por encima del de algunos habitantes de la antigua colonia británica. A lo largo de Queen’s Road, los alquileres abusivos y la ralentización de los negocios han hecho que las familias de artesanos tengan que abandonar sus antiguas tiendas.A market on Queen’s Road East.To ya superó la edad de jubilación en China. Su hijo, To Tak-tai, de 35 años, se hará cargo algún día de la tienda de fideos, rezando al mismo dios de la cocina cubierto de harina.A diferencia de sus padres, él nació en Hong Kong. No piensa en irse.“Hong Kong es el hogar”, dice.Por ahora, To trabaja día tras día, alimentando las máquinas de hacer fideos. Hong Kong tiene una red de seguridad social irregular. No recuerda la última vez que disfrutó de unas buenas vacaciones.To vive con su familia en un estrecho apartamento, pero ha construido una mansión de seis pisos en su pueblo natal de Guangdong. Sus hermanos, que nunca salieron de China, viven cómodamente de las pensiones estatales. Él también sueña con jubilarse allí.“En Hong Kong, si no trabajo, no tengo nada”, dijo To, con el torso desnudo y las pestañas escarchadas de harina. “Pero venir a Hong Kong, ese era mi destino”.El lema de un cartel que dice: “Celebrando la entrega. Mano a mano. Comenzando un nuevo capítulo”.Tiffany May More

  • in

    Biden’s Golden Opportunity to Reverse Course on China

    The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

  • in

    Your Friday Briefing: A Crucial Moment in the Ukraine War

    Plus the U.S. begins Jan. 6 hearings and Chinese pilots provoke U.S. allies.Good morning. We’re covering Ukraine’s fight for the Donbas and the start of Jan. 6 hearings in the U.S.A bridge, now destroyed by Russian forces, that once led into Sievierodonetsk.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesDonbas’s fate is ‘being decided’President Volodymyr Zelensky described the battle for Sievierodonetsk as a crucial moment in what is increasingly a war of attrition in eastern Ukraine. “The fate of our Donbas is being decided there,” he said.Ukrainian forces are outgunned by the Russians. The city is burning as the sounds of gunfire echo from vicious street-by-street combat. If Sievierodonetsk and its sister city Lysychansk fall, Russia will control all of Luhansk, one of two provinces in the Donbas region.Ukraine’s defense minister said his country “desperately needs heavy weapons, and very fast.”Both sides are still struggling to control what Zelensky has called “dead cities” as Russian bombardment further destroys the metropolises in the east. Here are live updates.Deaths: Ukraine is keeping its casualty numbers secret. But on the front lines, fresh graves show how relentless the fighting has become.Rep. Dan Kildee, a committee member, spoke before the start of the hearing.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe U.S. begins Jan. 6 hearingsThe House panel investigating the attack on the U.S. Capitol will open public hearings in Washington to begin setting out the findings from its nearly yearlong investigation.Lawmakers plan to start the session by presenting previously unreleased video testimony from people close to Donald Trump. They will also share footage revealing the role of the far-right group the Proud Boys in the riot on Jan. 6, 2021.The committee intends to paint a picture of Trump at the center of a coordinated effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election that led to the attack. We have live updates.“We’ll demonstrate the multipronged effort to overturn a presidential election, how one strategy to subvert the election led to another, culminating in a violent attack on our democracy,” said Representative Adam Schiff of California, a Democrat and a member of the committee.Details: The first hearing begins at 8 p.m. Eastern time (that’s 8 a.m. in Hong Kong). A total of six hearings are planned for this month.Resources: The Times has constructed an exhaustive timeline of the attack — the planning beforehand, the events at the Capitol and the preparation for the hearings.Trump: Lawyers plan to question the former president under oath as part of a separate investigation into his business practices led by the New York State attorney general’s office.A Chinese J-16 fighter jet.Taiwan Ministry of Defense, via Associated PressChinese pilots provoke U.S. alliesAustralia and Canada say Chinese military jets have harassed their planes in recent weeks, sometimes flying so close that the pilots could see each other.Beijing says the maneuvers are reasonable responses to foreign military patrols that threaten its security. But the two U.S. allies worry the pilots’ actions could lead to midair collisions.Any such mishap in the Asia Pacific could ignite an international incident at a time when tensions are rising between China and the West.Background: In 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. Navy surveillance plane, leading to tense negotiations and an apology from the U.S. Beijing has honored the fallen pilot, Wang Wei, whose confrontational way of flying is held up as a model for new Chinese pilots to emulate, an expert said.Details: The Chinese pilots have repeatedly buzzed a Canadian plane monitoring North Korea in recent weeks, and one plane sprayed metallic chaff in the path of an Australian surveillance aircraft.THE LATEST NEWSAsiaSouth Korean rescue teams and firefighters on the scene yesterday.Lee Mu-Yeol/NEWSIS, via Associated PressAn explosion killed at least seven people at a law firm in Daegu, South Korea. The police suspect arson.Vietnam’s health minister and Hanoi’s mayor were arrested in connection with a corruption scandal involving coronavirus test kits.Thailand became the first Asian country to legalize growing and possessing marijuana, The Associated Press reported.World NewsThe U.S. House passed a package of gun control measures, but the bill stands no chance of becoming law because of Republican opposition in the Senate.President Biden opened the Summit of the Americas, which is focused on immigration and regional economic ties. Several prominent Latin American leaders are skipping the meeting. Here are live updates.As inflation continues to rise, the European Central Bank says that it will raise interest rates next month for the first time in 11 years.The Middle EastIran began dismantling the U.N. monitoring system of its nuclear program, just as the U.N. nuclear agency said it was only weeks away from producing enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon.Israel’s prime minister, Naftali Bennett, made an impromptu visit to Abu Dhabi as his country and the U.A.E. presented a united front against Iran.What Else Is HappeningAn American tourist pushed an electric scooter down the Spanish Steps, causing 25,000 euros (about $27,000) in damage to the Roman landmark.Asteroid samples brought back to Earth by the Japanese space mission Hayabusa2 in December 2020 could shed new light on the chemistry of the solar system.The sale of single-use plastic products at U.S. national parks and on other public lands will be phased out over the next decade.A Morning ReadDom Phillips, center, interviewing Indigenous Brazilians in 2019.Joao Laet/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesDom Phillips, a British journalist, and Bruno Pereira, a Brazilian expert on Indigenous groups, disappeared in the Amazon after facing threats. They had gone to interview Indigenous people who patrol parts of the dense jungle plagued by illegal fishing, hunting and mining, a problem exacerbated by government budget cuts under President Jair Bolsonaro. They have not been seen since Sunday.Russia-Ukraine War: Key DevelopmentsCard 1 of 4The battle for Sievierodonetsk. More

  • in

    US sues casino mogul Steve Wynn to compel him to register as an agent of China

    US sues casino mogul Steve Wynn to compel him to register as an agent of ChinaJustice department says Wynn lobbied the Trump administration for China to protect his business interests in Macau The US Department of Justice on Tuesday sued Steve Wynn, the billionaire former casino mogul and senior Republican fund raiser, to compel him to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act as an agent of China.The department said Wynn, 80, had contacted then-US president Donald Trump and members of his Republican administration in 2017 to convey China’s request to cancel the visa of or otherwise remove a Chinese businessperson who had sought political asylum in the United States.In a statement the Department of Justice said it was seeking to compel Wynn to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (Fara) as the agent of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and a senior official of the PRC’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS).“The filing of this suit – the first affirmative civil lawsuit under Fara in more than three decades – demonstrates the department’s commitment to ensuring transparency in our democratic system,” said assistant attorney general Matthew Olsen of the justice department’s national security division. “Where a foreign government uses an American as its agent to influence policy decisions in the United States, Fara gives the American people a right to know.”‘Sinkhole of corruption’: Trump Organization sells Washington hotelRead moreAccording to the complaint, in June and August 2017 Wynn contacted Trump and members of his administration to “convey the PRC’s request to cancel the visa or otherwise remove from the United States a Chinese businessperson who left China in 2014, was later charged with corruption by the PRC and sought political asylum in the United States”.The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the person was Chinese businessman Guo Wengui, who has been accused by the Chinese authorities of a range of criminal offenses including bribery and sexual assault, charges he has denied. Guo has said he is the subject of a witch hunt after accusing senior PRC figures of having corrupt ties with China’s business leaders.The complaint alleges that Wynn engaged in these efforts at the request of Sun Lijun, then-vice minister of the MPS. “Wynn conveyed the request directly to the then-president over dinner and by phone, and he had multiple discussions with the then-president and senior officials at the White House and National Security Council about organizing a meeting with Sun and other PRC government officials,” according to the justice department.Wynn’s company owned and operated casinos in Macau, a special administrative region in the PRC and the department alleges that “Wynn acted at the request of the PRC out of a desire to protect his business interests in Macau”.Wynn’s lawyers denied the charges.“Steve Wynn has never acted as an agent of the Chinese government and had no obligation to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. We respectfully disagree with the Department of Justice’s legal interpretation of Fara and look forward to proving our case in court,” said a statement from his attorneys, Reid Weingarten and Brian Heberlig.In 2018, Wynn resigned as finance chair of the Republican National Committee, a day after it was reported that he faced multiple of allegations of sexual misconduct.Days later he resigned from his luxury casino and hotel company, Wynn Resorts. He denied the allegations of sexual harassment and assault.In 2020, Elliott Broidy, a venture capitalist and former deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Congress, pleaded guilty of acting as an unregistered foreign agent, accepting millions of dollars to lobby the Trump administration for Malaysian and Chinese interests. Broidy admitted to working with Chinese officials attempting to return Guo to his home country.The complaint alleges Wynn was drawn into the lobbying effort by Broidy. Broidy was later pardoned by Trump.Agencies contributed reporting.TopicsChinaGamblingDonald TrumpTrump administrationUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

  • in

    Your Tuesday Briefing: Russia’s Faltering Campaign

    Plus climate’s role in Australia’s upcoming election and a Covid-19 protest at Peking University.Good morning. We’re covering Russia’s struggling military campaign, Australia’s halting recovery from bush fires and a Covid-19 protest at Peking University.A damaged apartment complex in Kharkiv.Finbarr O’Reilly for The New York TimesRussia scales back its charge eastAfter a series of military setbacks, Moscow now appears to be focusing on a narrow objective: widening its holdings in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas. But even there Russia may be forced to scale back its ambition to take most of eastern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War.Russia still controls the wide swath of southern Ukraine it seized early in the war, including Kherson, and continues to impose a naval blockade that is strangling the Ukrainian economy. But Russia has not secured a major strategic gain in the east.On Sunday, the Ukrainian military released a video purporting to show a small group of soldiers reaching the Russian border near Kharkiv — a powerful symbolic moment. Russian forces had to retreat from the city, Ukraine’s second-largest, earlier this month.NATO: The alliance is preparing to fast-track admission for Finland and Sweden, which formally announced that they will seek membership. On Monday, NATO forces from 14 countries held a large, long-planned military exercise on Russia’s doorstep in Estonia, a tough Kremlin critic.Vladimir Putin: The Russian president is increasingly isolated. He met with his five closest allies on Monday; only Belarus spoke up in support of Putin’s war.Soldiers: Russia has likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing it to draw from private companies and militias, the institute reported. But to many Russians, defeat remains inconceivable.Other updates:As the U.S. and Europe seek to deprive Russia of oil and gas income, their leaders hope Qatar can help fill the void.After 32 years, McDonald’s is selling its Russian business, once a symbol of globalization.Olga Koutseridi, a home cook from Mariupol who now lives in Texas, is fighting to preserve her city’s distinctive cuisine.Jamie Robinson, who lost everything during the 2019 fires, has been struggling to rebuild his house.Matthew Abbott for The New York TimesAustralia’s bush fire reckoningIn late 2019 and early 2020, fires tore through southeastern Australia. Barely one in 10 families in the affected region of southeastern Australia have finished rebuilding, local government data shows. Most have not even started.The halting recovery efforts could have profound political import. The ruling conservative coalition holds a one-seat majority in Parliament and is already expected to lose some urban seats.The once-conservative rural towns south of Sydney could also defect. Angered by a lack of government support after the bush fires, they may vote for the opposition Labor party in the Australian election on Saturday.Background: The record-setting “black summer” bush fires killed 34 people, destroyed 3,500 homes and burned more than 60 million acres over two months.Analysis: Our Sydney bureau chief, Damien Cave, spoke to the Climate Forward newsletter about climate’s role in the Australian election.The U.S.: Half of all addresses in the lower 48 states are at risk of wildfire damage. Climate change will make the U.S. even more combustible.Peking University has a history of occasional organized unrest.Thomas Peter/ReutersPeking University’s Covid protestStudents at one of China’s most elite academic institutions protested strict Covid-19 lockdown requirements on Sunday, arguing that the measures were poorly communicated and unfair.Students are upset that they cannot order food and are required to isolate, while teachers and their families can leave the campus freely. On an online forum, one student called the policy contradictory. Another said it was “a joke indeed.”In response to student frustrations, the authorities tried to put up a wall separating students from faculty and staff. More than 200 people left their dorms to protest.Reaction: The government quickly moved to censor videos and photos from the brief protest, which quickly spread on China’s internet.Analysis: Peking University, which has a history of occasional organized unrest, holds a special place in Beijing’s cultural and political life. The demonstration underscores a growing challenge for officials, who must assuage anger while fighting the highly infectious Omicron variant.In other news:Evidence is growing that Covid-19 has mutated to infect people repeatedly, sometimes within months, a potentially long-term pattern.THE LATEST NEWSWorld NewsTensions were high in the Somali capital ahead of Sunday’s presidential election. Malin Fezehai for The New York TimesPresident Biden approved plans to redeploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia and target Al Shabab leaders. Conservatives kept Germany’s most populous state, a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party.President Emmanuel Macron of France named a new, left-leaning and climate-focused prime minister: Élisabeth Borne. Currently the minister of labor, she will be the second woman to occupy the position.Buffalo ShootingInvestigators searched for evidence at the supermarket.Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersHere are live updates from the Saturday mass shooting in upstate New York.The accused shooter, an 18-year-old white man, had previously been investigated for a violent threat. He had planned to attack a second target.Officials released the full list of victims, almost all of whom were Black.The gunman published a hate-filled racist screed before the attack, connecting it to the livestreamed murder of 51 people by a gunman at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2019.Some right-wing politicians have helped promote “replacement theory,” the racist ideology that the gunman espoused. In recent years, other perpetrators of mass shootings have also cited the idea, popularized on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show.In other news: A gunman killed one person and critically wounded four others at a Southern California church before congregants overpowered him and tied him up. He has been charged with murder.A Morning Read“I keep telling the other sisters, ‘Get on TikTok!’” Sister Monica Clare said. “‘If we’re hidden, we’re going to die out.’”Daniel Dorsa for The New York TimesNuns are joining TikTok, offering a window into their cloistered experiences. “We’re not all grim old ladies reading the Bible,” one said.Lives lived: Pandit Shiv Kumar Sharma single-handedly elevated the santoor, a 100-string instrument little known outside Kashmir, into a prominent component of Hindustani classical music. He died last week at 84.Russia-Ukraine War: Key DevelopmentsCard 1 of 4Mariupol steel plant. More

  • in

    John Lee Wins Hong Kong’s Rubber-Stamp Election

    John Lee, who won a rubber-stamp leadership election on Sunday, will implement the next stage of China’s agenda for the former British colony.HONG KONG — John Lee “will make Hong Kongers and international investors feel relaxed, at ease and full of confidence,” a pro-Beijing newspaper declared. He will help the city “start anew to achieve greater glories,” the state-run China Daily wrote, in one of a series of articles praising him. His rise to the top leadership position is “a concentrated embodiment of public opinion,” said China’s official arm in Hong Kong, though only 1,424 members of a government-vetted committee voted for him on Sunday, in an uncontested race controlled by Beijing.Having officially become the next chief executive, Mr. Lee is now Beijing’s man, a security-minded official who can be relied on to follow orders and keep Hong Kong in line.His political agenda is the next chapter in China’s vision for the former British colony, set in motion by the sweeping national security law imposed two years ago, which quashed dissent in a city once known for its vibrant civil society and freewheeling press.Mr. Lee, a top architect of the crackdown on the antigovernment protests that roiled Hong Kong in 2019, inherits a city that has been tamed and cowed, with Beijing’s most outspoken critics behind bars or in exile. Unlike his predecessor, he will encounter little resistance to a legislative slate that prioritizes social stability and bureaucratic loyalty, the ideals of China’s ruling Communist Party.Police officers on Sunday outside Hong Kong’s convention center, where the election committee met to vote.Isaac Lawrence for The New York TimesBut he will also face a city embattled by the coronavirus and some of the world’s toughest pandemic restrictions. The economy is shrinking, unemployment is rising and growing numbers of people are leaving the city, imperiling Hong Kong’s status as a global financial center.Mr. Lee waved and bowed to applauding voters on Sunday after being declared the winner. “Having restored order from chaos, it is high time that Hong Kong starts a new chapter of development, a chapter that will be geared toward greater prosperity for all,” he said.Since Hong Kong was reclaimed by China in 1997, Beijing has always let it be known who it wants in the top job, though it did so more subtly in the past.Jiang Zemin, China’s then-leader, gave his tacit support to Tung Chee-hwa, the first chief executive, by singling him out for a long handshake at a 1996 meeting in Beijing. In 2012, the Central Liaison Office, which officially represents the Chinese government in Hong Kong, quietly told electors to pick Leung Chun-ying, the eventual winner.When Mr. Lee announced his intention to run, he noted that he first needed Beijing’s permission to step down as chief secretary, the city’s No. 2 job. It was a simple matter of procedure, but also a public declaration of who was calling the shots.A Covid-19 testing station outside a Hong Kong building under lockdown in March. The city has been battered by the virus and by tough pandemic restrictions.Billy H.C. Kwok for The New York TimesMr. Lee’s ascension was all but assured a month ago when his predecessor, Carrie Lam, said she would not seek a second term and Beijing approved his candidacy. Nobody else garnered enough nominations to make the ballot.The process has always been tightly controlled, but China removed any veneer of competition or opposition this time. Between new electoral rules and the national security law, the pro-democracy camp was effectively neutered. As chief secretary, Mr. Lee led a panel that vetted the election committee members for loyalty last year. On Sunday, 1,416 members of them voted for Mr. Lee, with just eight opposed. He will be sworn in on July 1, the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China.“Beijing has completely stacked the election committee with its loyalists and further twisted the process into a meaningless competition,” said Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. “Even in Iran, there is more of a contest for the head of government.”Mr. Lee’s pedigree reinforces Beijing’s intentions in Hong Kong. After joining the police as a probationary inspector at 19, he rose through the ranks, eventually becoming the security secretary in 2017.Empty seats in a Hong Kong classroom in September. Residents have been leaving the city.Anthony Kwan for The New York TimesMr. Lee will be the first former police officer to assume Hong Kong’s top job in more than a century, and security remains a priority for him. He plans to push through a package of new laws on treason, secession, sedition and subversion, known collectively as Article 23. The laws are required by Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law, but its leaders have never managed to pass them. The government tried in 2003, only to retreat after hundreds of thousands of people protested.This time, Mr. Lee won’t face similar opposition.News outlets, unions, political parties and human rights groups have closed under government pressure and national security investigations. Dozens of pro-democracy politicians and activists are in custody awaiting trial on national security charges.“In order to deal with future national security risks, it is urgent to complete the legislation of Article 23, and the legislation must be a ‘tiger with teeth,’” the state-owned Ta Kung Pao newspaper said last month.Mr. Lee helped to lead the crackdown on the protests that roiled Hong Kong in 2019.Lam Yik Fei for The New York TimesMr. Lee has been a staunch advocate of security legislation. He told the United Nations Human Rights Council in March that the 2020 security law had “restored peace and stability” by ending the “violence, destruction and chaos” of the protests.He also wants to root out critics in Hong Kong’s civil service, which has been under attack from pro-Beijing politicians since some government employees joined the 2019 demonstrations. Beijing loyalists have also accused the bureaucracy of resisting efforts to carry out mainland-style coronavirus controls, including lockdowns and mandatory testing.As chief secretary, Mr. Lee expanded a requirement for public office holders to take fealty pledges similar to those required for bureaucrats on the mainland. And he headed a committee to vet candidates for elected office, to ensure that they were sufficiently loyal (the same panel that vetted his future voters).“We need to make sure the civil service will faithfully implement the policies of the government,” said Lau Siu-kai, an adviser to Beijing on Hong Kong policy. Dozens of pro-democracy activists and politicians still await trial in Hong Kong on national security charges.Kin Cheung/Associated PressMr. Lee has also embraced the idea, popular among mainland Chinese officials, that a lack of housing and economic opportunities helped ignite the protests of 2019.Last month, he toured a crowded Hong Kong housing block. Pledging to create more public housing, he described the bleak conditions there, mentioning a mother and two children who lived in a 150-square-foot apartment “with cockroaches that sometimes climb in through the water pipes.”“Their greatest wish is to be allocated public housing as soon as possible to improve their living environment,” he said. The waiting time for public housing is the longest it has been in two decades.The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the challenges Mr. Lee will soon face in one of the world’s most expensive and unequal cities.Life came to a standstill this year as the Omicron variant infected more than a million residents and engulfed hospitals. Officials turned to the “zero Covid” strategy, shutting down bars, gyms and schools and reducing restaurant hours. The city’s working class has been hit hard by such measures, which have left the service industry reeling. A shuttered Hong Kong restaurant in February. Pandemic restrictions have hit the service industry hard.Billy H.C. Kwok for The New York TimesThe coronavirus policies, which have largely isolated Hong Kong, have also prompted a reassessment of the city by international companies. Business leaders say they are struggling to hire and keep executives in Hong Kong. A growing number of companies have relocated, while others have temporarily moved top executives to cities like Singapore.“This was the city of opportunity; everyone wanted to come here,” said Eugenia Bae, a headhunter for international banks and financial firms. “Now it is no longer a popular city anymore.”Mr. Lee, who is largely unknown to the business community, has promised to restore Hong Kong’s status as a thriving global hub. He has also said he would strengthen its financial ties with mainland China.“We have the hope and the expectation that the next leadership will lead Hong Kong out of the pandemic and back on track,” said Frederik Gollob, chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.Mr. Lee has said he will push for more public housing in Hong Kong.Billy H.C. Kwok for The New York TimesFelix Chung, a former lawmaker, met with Mr. Lee in early 2019, when the future chief executive was drafting a bill that would allow extradition to mainland China and other places — legislation that would soon trigger the citywide protests.At the time, many business leaders took issue with the bill’s scope, worrying that it would make them vulnerable to charges on the mainland, where a corruption crackdown was underway. When China first opened up its economy, Mr. Chung said, many businesses operated in legally dubious ways.After several meetings, Mr. Lee agreed to remove 9 of the 46 categories of crimes originally cited in the bill, largely easing the business leaders’ concerns. Whether Mr. Lee will be so willing to negotiate as chief executive is unclear, Mr. Chung said. “We cannot use our past experience to analyze the present situation because a lot of decisions are being made by Beijing,” he said.Tiffany May contributed reporting.A bridge linking Hong Kong to mainland China. The city of Shenzhen is in the background. Billy H.C. Kwok for The New York Times More