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      Nicolás Maduro Is President of Venezuela Whether the U.S. Likes It or Not

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      When the United States arranged an exchange of prisoners with President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela last week — sending home two nephews of Mr. Maduro’s wife who had been convicted of drug trafficking in a swap for seven Americans held in Venezuelan jails — it exposed the incoherence of U.S. policy toward Venezuela.Even as it negotiates with Mr. Maduro, the White House continues to insist that Juan Guaidó, an opposition politician, is the real president of Venezuela. The United States has no formal diplomatic relations with the Maduro government, and the embassy in Caracas has been closed since early 2019, shortly after President Donald Trump recognized Mr. Guaidó as president in an unsuccessful, long-shot bid to force Mr. Maduro from power.It is time for the Biden administration to accept that the Guaidó gambit has failed and that most Venezuelans, and most of the international community, have moved on. The White House needs a Venezuela policy based on fact, not fiction. And the fact is that Mr. Maduro is president of Venezuela and Mr. Guaidó is not.Accepting reality will have many potential benefits — not least to the Venezuelan opposition, which is in the midst of a turbulent effort to remake itself.After Mr. Trump announced his support for Mr. Guaidó in January 2019, dozens of other countries followed Washington’s lead. But today, only a dwindling handful continue to recognize Mr. Guaidó as Venezuela’s president, and, like the United States, eschew direct diplomatic ties with Mr. Maduro’s government.And that list is getting shorter.Gustavo Petro, the newly elected leftist president of Colombia, moved quickly after taking office in August to abandon his country’s recognition of Mr. Guaidó and reopen its embassy in Caracas. That change is crucial because Colombia has long been Washington’s most important ally in South America and a key supporter of Mr. Guaidó.Brazil, another powerful backer of Mr. Guaidó, could be next, if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva retakes the presidency in a runoff election later this month.Mr. Guaidó was always president in name only — he had no government and no power to act inside Venezuela. He showed courage when he defied Mr. Maduro’s repressive regime, but he never had a viable plan, beyond vague hopes for a military coup or for U.S. intervention. And he was wedded to Mr. Trump’s sanctions-heavy approach, which exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis.Mr. Guaidó’s claim to an alternate presidency rested on his role as head of the National Assembly, but his legislative term ended last year, and at that point many of his supporters inside and outside of Venezuela gave up on the notion.Today, Mr. Maduro is stronger than he was three years ago, and the opposition is in disarray.Dropping the pretense that Mr. Guaidó is president would set U.S. policy on a rational foundation but would not be an endorsement of Mr. Maduro. It could facilitate talks with Mr. Maduro over key areas, including the wave of Venezuelan refugees entering the United States and possible changes to economic sanctions related to oil exports. A resumption of consular activities would make it possible for citizens to obtain or renew visas and passports.One of the greatest beneficiaries could be the Venezuelan opposition, which is in a turbulent, and necessary, state of flux. The opposition has been harshly repressed by a Maduro government committed at all costs to staying in power; while the opposition has made many missteps, it is the primary political force in the country committed to democracy and the defense of human rights, and it is therefore critical to finding a solution to the country’s crisis.Over the last two years, most mainstream Venezuelan opposition parties have been thrown into crisis, hemorrhaging activists, splitting apart in leadership squabbles or watching once-loyal voters defect.The government has frequently stepped in to stir the pot, using the courts or electoral authorities to order the takeover of parties by substitute leadership that is considered suspect by the rest of the opposition. But in most cases, the divisions were there to be exploited.Venezuelans are fed up with opposition parties that often seem more interested in fighting with each other than in improving the country’s fortunes.At the same time, new parties have emerged, organizing around new leaders.The political changes were evident in elections held last November. The opposition won a third of the mayorships around the country, after previously holding fewer than one in ten. And although the opposition won just four governorships out of 23, it received a majority of votes in all but a few states. The reason it didn’t win more governorships was that multiple opposition candidates split the vote, essentially handing victory to candidates allied with Mr. Maduro.The lessons of November were powerful. The election showed that Venezuelans still see the ballot box as a way out of the nation’s troubles. It unmasked the weakness of the government party among voters. It demonstrated, once again, that lack of unity is the opposition’s Achilles’ heel.And it revealed gains for the nontraditional opposition, with about half of total opposition votes going to candidates outside the coalition led by the four mainstream parties, according to Eugenio Martínez, a journalist who specializes in election analysis.Venezuelan politics are now aimed at a presidential election that will take place in 2024.Will the opposition come together to choose a single candidate, or will it remain divided? The United States has urged Mr. Maduro and the opposition to resume negotiations that could lead to improved electoral conditions. But who will sit across the table from Mr. Maduro’s negotiators?So far, Washington has thrown its weight behind the Unitary Platform, a rebranded coalition led by Mr. Guaidó and the traditional parties, which is seeking to steer the choice of a 2024 candidate and which controls the team that would negotiate conditions with Mr. Maduro.But by continuing to uphold the fiction that Mr. Guaidó is president of Venezuela, the administration makes it harder for the opposition to go through the necessary process of reforming itself. The United States must acknowledge reality — as it relates to who actually governs in Venezuela and the need for Venezuelans to fashion the opposition that they choose. That is the only way that Washington can play a constructive role in solving Venezuela’s crisis.William Neuman is a former New York Times reporter and Andes region bureau chief, and the author of “Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Colombia’s First Black Vice President Spotlights Afro-Caribbean Fashion

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      The wardrobe of Francia Márquez, Colombia’s first Black vice president, is the creation of a young designer at the center of an Afro-Colombian fashion explosion.CALI, Colombia — At a premier fashion event in the coastal city of Buenaventura this year, a pair of towering models strutted down the boardwalk, one in a red minidress with a fluted top inspired by an open seashell and the other wearing a blue-and-gold gown fit for a modern queen.The models were Black and the fabrics imported from Africa — unusual for a major fashion show in Colombia. But what most distinguished them was the designer himself: Esteban Sinisterra Paz, a 23-year-old university student with no formal design training who is at the center of an Afro-Colombian fashion explosion.“Decolonization of the human being,” is the aim of his work, he said, along with showing the world an expansive view of “the elegance of identity.”Mr. Sinisterra is the man behind the wardrobe of Francia Márquez, an environmental activist and lawyer who on Sunday will become Colombia’s first Black vice president.The wardrobe of Francia Márquez, who on Sunday will become Colombia’s first Black vice president, is largely designed Mr. Sinisterra, a 23-year-old social work student with no formal design training who is at the center of an Afro-Colombian fashion explosion.Federico Rios for The New York TimesIn a nation where race and class often define a person’s status, Ms. Márquez, 40, has made a remarkable leap from profound poverty to the presidential palace, emerging as the voice of millions of poor, Black and Indigenous Colombians.In a matter of months, she has not only pushed racism and classism to the center of the national conversation, she has also revolutionized the country’s political aesthetic, rejecting starched shirts and suits in favor of a distinctly Afro-Colombian look that she calls a form of rebellion.Natural hair. Bold prints. Dresses that highlight her curves.But Ms. Márquez and Mr. Sinisterra are just the most visible ambassadors of an Afro-Colombian aesthetic boom that proponents say is part of a larger movement demanding greater respect for millions of Black Colombians.Mr. Sinisterra with some of the pieces that he uses to create a distinctly Afro-Colombian look.Nathalia Angarita for The New York TimesIn a nation where 40 percent of households live on less than $100 a month — a percentage that has grown during the pandemic — Afro-Colombians are among the poorest groups, with the regions where they predominate, including the Pacific Coast, some of the most neglected by generations of politicians.Officially, Black Colombians make up between 6 to 9 percent of the population. But many say that is an undercount that perpetuates a lack of recognition.“Colonization tried to erase Black people,” said Lia Samantha Lozano, 41, who began outfitting her hip-hop and reggae band, Voodoo Souljahs, in African fabrics more than a decade ago, positioning her as a pioneer in the movement.In 2014, she became the first Black woman with a runway show at Colombiamoda, the country’s biggest fashion event. Today, politically oriented Afro-descendant brands have proliferated on the internet, and in shops across Cali, a major hub of Afro-Colombian culture, with Black celebrities, models, politicians and activists increasingly using clothing as a political tool. And the Petronio Álvarez Festival, an annual celebration of Afro-Colombian culture that draws hundreds of thousands of people to Cali, has emerged as the movement’s fashion week. Ms. Lozano now sells a bright, hip-hop inspired line at a major shopping mall in the capital of Bogotá.“A big part of the plan was to make us feel ashamed of who we are, of our colors, of our culture, of our features,” she went on. “To wear this every day, not as ‘fashion,’ not to dress up for a special occasion, but as a way of life, as something you want to communicate every day — yes, it is political. And, yes, it is a symbol of resistance.”Mr. Sinisterra at a fashion show in Buenaventura with a model wearing one of his designs, which he called “Royal Imperialism.”Augusto GalloAmong the movement’s signatures are bright patterned fabrics called wax, which are wildly popular across West, East and Central Africa and famous for telling stories and sending messages through their pictures and designs. (Prints can celebrate everything from pop culture to religion and politics, featuring tubes of lipstick, the faces of religious figures or portraits of politicians and celebrities.)Afro-Colombian aesthetic often references nature — Mr. Sinisterra has a dress with sleeves like wings inspired by Colombia’s famous butterflies — and can incorporate elaborate beaded jewelry and woven bags by artists from Colombia’s many Indigenous communities.The movement’s leaders include not just Ms. Márquez, but also Emilia Eneyda Valencia Murraín, 62, a mentor of Mr. Sinisterra’s who in 2004 started Weaving Hope, a multiday celebration of Black hair in Cali.Emilia Eneyda Valencia Murraín, 62, is a mentor of Mr. Sinisterra’s.Nathalia Angarita for The New York TimesColombia’s sartorial moment is years, many would say centuries, in the making, drawing on activism in Latin America, Africa and the United States; the baggy street style of hip-hop and the sparkly astral vibes of Afrofuturism; the turbans of Colombian market women; the mermaid silhouettes of Senegal and Nigeria; and even the influence of Michelle Obama, who famously used clothing to make political statements.The aesthetic is also expansive and fluid, including everyday clothing — like tunics from the brand Baobab by Consuelo Cruz Arboleda — and showpieces like Mr. Sinisterra’s Royal Imperialism, a tight, ruffled strapless gown whose grandeur he said embodies the modern-day cultural empire that the descendants of Africa have constructed in the Colombian Pacific.“We are transforming the image that we have of power,” said Edna Liliana Valencia, 36, a popular Afro-Colombian journalist, poet and activist.Edna Liliana Valencia is an Afro-Colombian journalist, poet and activist.Nathalia Angarita for The New York TimesMr. Sinisterra is among this movement’s newest stars. Born into a poor family in the small town of Santa Bárbara de Iscuandé, near the Pacific Ocean, his family was forcibly displaced by armed men when he was 5, among the millions of Colombians victimized by the country’s decades-long internal conflict.In the nearby town of Guapi, and later in the port city of Buenaventura, Mr. Sinisterra learned to sew from his aunt and grandmother, whom he called “the designers of the neighborhood.”“Esteban African,” he said of his clothing line, “began out of a necessity to bring money home.”Mr. Sinisterra wanted to study fashion, but his father thought that was only for girls, so he entered university as a social work student.But he began building a name designing increasingly elaborate pieces for a growing list of customers, finding inspiration online and selling his work on Instagram and Facebook. Then, in 2019, Ms. Márquez called. She had been referred to him by a mutual friend and needed an outfit. Mr. Sinisterra is in his seventh of eight semesters at university. When he’s not in class, he sews the vice president’s outfits in a windowless room in his small apartment in Cali. His boyfriend, Andrés Mena, 27, is a former nurse who switched careers to become general manager of Esteban African.Mr. Sinisterra with his boyfriend, Andrés Mena, left.Nathalia Angarita For The New York TimesAmong the brand’s best known items are two pairs of earrings. One features the map of Colombia, etched with its 32 departments. A second looks like two gold orbs meant to evoke the mining pans Ms. Márquez used as a child miner in the mountains of Cauca, near the Pacific Coast, long before she became a household name.Ms. Márquez once slept on a dirt floor beside her siblings. She later worked as a live-in maid to support her children, went to law school and eventually won a prize known as the environmental Nobel.In an interview, she called Mr. Sinisterra’s work a critical part of her political identity. “He’s showing young people that they can succeed, using their talent, they can get ahead,” she said.Mr. Sinisterra has never been to Africa. A visit is his dream, along with studying fashion in Paris and “building a school where the children of the Pacific can have alternatives,” he said, “and their parents, unlike mine, will not think that sewing and cutting and making clothes is only for girls.”Today, he said, his father is proud of his work.Lately, he has been barraged by media and customer requests, and he manages his newfound fame by working around the clock.One day in July, barefoot and sweating, he laid a pair of fabrics on the floor, cut them freehand, then stitched them together using a new Jinthex sewing machine he’d bought with his now improving wages. He was making another dress for Ms. Márquez.On Election Day in June, he outfitted her in kente cloth, a Ghanaian print whose interlocking lines evoke basket weavings, to symbolize vote collection.Ms. Márquez wearing a kente cloth dress on Election Day in June.Federico Rios for The New York TimesThe dress had a ruffle down the front, representing the rivers in Ms. Márquez’s home region, and the jacket on her shoulders, all white, symbolized peace, he said, “in this country so torn up by political postures.”He’s made three outfits for inauguration day. “Whichever she chooses is fine with me,” he said.As he ironed the newly stitched piece, he said he was both excited and anxious about Ms. Márquez’s ascension to power.In the last few months, he has come to feel like a part of her political project, and she has made enormous promises to transform the country after decades of injustice.“The responsibility is going to grow,” he said.“My responsibility, Francia’s responsibility, backing this process so that the people — our people — don’t feel betrayed.” More

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      Francia Márquez lleva la moda afro a Palacio en Colombia

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      El guardarropa de Francia Márquez, la primera vicepresidenta negra del país, es creación de un joven diseñador que protagoniza la explosión de la moda afrocolombiana.CALI, Colombia — En un destacado evento de moda en la ciudad costera de Buenaventura este año, un par de altísimas modelos se lucían en la pasarela ataviadas con un minivestido de torso acanalado inspirado en una concha marina abierta y un atuendo azul marino con dorado digno de una reina moderna.Las modelos eran negras y las telas habían sido importadas de África, algo inusual para un gran evento de moda en Colombia. Pero lo que más destacaba era el diseñador: Esteban Sinisterra Paz, un estudiante universitario de 23 años sin formación profesional en diseño que protagoniza la explosión de la moda afrocolombiana.El objetivo de su trabajo es la “decolonialidad del ser”, dijo Sinisterra. Así como mostrarle al mundo una visión más amplia de “la elegancia de la identidad”.Sinisterra es el hombre detrás del guardarropa de Francia Márquez, la abogada y activista ambiental que el domingo se convertirá en la primera vicepresidenta negra de Colombia.El guardarropa de Francia Márquez, que se convertirá en la primera vicepresidenta negra de Colombia, es diseñado en gran medida por Sinisterra, un estudiante universitario de 23 años que no tiene formación en diseño y que protagoniza la explosión de la moda afrocolombiana.Federico Rios para The New York TimesEn un país donde la raza y la clase a menudo definen el estatus de una persona, Márquez, de 40 años, ha dado un notable salto de la pobreza profunda al palacio presidencial para convertirse en la voz de millones de colombianos pobres, negros e indígenas.En cuestión de meses, no solo ha llevado el racismo y el clasismo al centro del debate nacional, también ha revolucionado la estética política del país al rechazar las blusas y sastres almidonados en favor de un look distintivamente afrocolombiano que ella considera una forma de rebelión.Pelo natural. Estampados audaces. Vestidos que destacan sus curvas.Pero Márquez y Sinisterra solo son los embajadores más visibles del auge de una estética afrocolombiana que, según sus partidarios, se inserta en un movimiento más amplio que exige respeto para millones de colombianos negros.Sinisterra con algunas de las piezas que usa para crear una apariencia distintivamente afrocolombiana.Nathalia Angarita para The New York TimesEn un país donde 40 por ciento de los hogares vive con menos de 100 dólares al mes —un porcentaje que ha crecido durante la pandemia— los afrocolombianos se ubican entre los grupos más pobres, y las regiones donde predominan, entre ellas la costa Pacífico, son algunas de las más olvidadas por los políticos.Oficialmente, los colombianos negros constituyen entre el 6 y el 9 por ciento de la población. Pero hay quienes dicen que se trata de un sub registro que perpetúa la falta de reconocimiento.“La colonización pretendía acabar con la gente negra”, dijo Lía Samantha Lozano, de 41 años, quien empezó a vestir a su banda de hip-hop y reggae, Voodoo Souljahs, con textiles africanos hace más de una década, posicionándose como pionera del movimiento.En 2014 se convirtió en la primera mujer negra con un desfile de pasarela en Colombiamoda, el principal evento de moda del país.Hoy abundan en internet las marcas afrodescendientes de orientación política y en boutiques por todo Cali, un gran centro de cultura afrocolombiana. Cada vez hay más celebridades, modelos, políticos y activistas negros que usan el guardarropa como una herramienta política. Y el Festival Petronio Álvarez, una celebración anual de la cultura afrocolombiana que atrae a cientos de miles de asistentes a Cali, se ha convertido en la principal semana de la moda del movimiento.Lozano ahora ofrece una línea colorida de inspiración hiphopera en un gran centro comercial de la capital, Bogotá.“Y gran parte de ese plan era que nosotros mismos nos sintiéramos avergonzados de lo que somos, de nuestros colores, de nuestra cultura, de nuestros rasgos”, continuó. “Llevar esto todos los días, no por una moda, no por disfrazarse para un evento especial, sino como un estilo de vida, como parte de lo que quieres comunicar todos los días, sí lo hace político. Y sí es un símbolo de resistencia”.Sinisterra en un desfile de moda en Buenaventura con una modelo ataviada con uno de sus diseños, “Imperialismo Real”.Augusto GalloEntre los elementos insignia del movimiento está el wax, esos textiles de patrones radiantes, tremendamente populares en África Oriental, Occidental y Central, y conocidos porque cuentan historias y envían mensajes a través de sus diseños e imágenes. (Los estampados pueden homenajear de todo: desde la cultura pop hasta la religión y la política y mostrar labiales, rostros de figuras religiosas o retratos de políticos y celebridades).La estética afrocolombiana a menudo hace referencia a la naturaleza —Sinisterra tiene un vestido con mangas como alas, inspiradas en las famosas mariposas colombianas— y puede incorporar joyería intrincada de chaquiras y bolsos tejidos elaborados por artistas de las muchas comunidades indígenas de Colombia.El liderazgo del movimiento no solo recae en Márquez, sino también en Emilia Eneyda Valencia Murraín, de 62 años y mentora de Sinisterra, quien en 2004 lanzó Tejiendo Esperanzas, una celebración del pelo negro que tiene lugar en Cali y dura varios días.Emilia Eneyda Valencia Murraín, de 62 años, mentora de SinisterraNathalia Angarita para The New York TimesEste momento sartorial en Colombia venía gestándose desde hace años, muchos dirán siglos, y se nutre del activismo en América Latina, África y Estados Unidos; del estilo holgado y urbano del hiphop y las ondas astrales brillantes del afrofuturismo; los turbantes de las mujeres en los mercados colombianos; las siluetas de sirena de Senegal y Nigeria e incluso de la influencia de Michelle Obama, quien célebremente usó su vestimenta para expresar posturas políticas.La estética también es amplia y fluida e incluye ropa de diario —como las túnicas de la marca Baobab de Consuelo Cruz Arboleda— y piezas de fantasía como Imperialismo Real, un vestido de noche creación de Sinisterra strapless, ajustado y con volantes cuya grandeza, según él, encarna el imperio cultural moderno que los descendientes de África han construido en el Pacífico colombiano.“Estamos transformando la imagen que tenemos del poder”, dijo Edna Liliana Valencia, de 36 años, una popular periodista, poeta y activista afrocolombiana.Edna Liliana Valencia, activista, poeta y periodista afrocolombianaNathalia Angarita para The New York TimesSinisterra está entre las más nuevas estrellas de este movimiento. Nacido en una familia pobre en la pequeña ciudad de Santa Bárbara de Iscuandé, cerca del océano Pacífico, su familia fue desplazada a la fuerza por hombres armados cuando él tenía 5 años, al igual que tantos millones de víctimas del prolongado conflicto interno del país.En el cercano pueblo de Guapi, y más tarde en la ciudad portuaria de Buenaventura, Sinisterra aprendió a coser con su tía y su abuela, a las que llamaba “las diseñadoras del barrio”.“Esteban African”, dijo sobre su línea de ropa, “nace de esa necesidad de poder aportar ingresos a mi casa”.Sinisterra quería estudiar moda, pero su padre pensaba que eso era solo para chicas, así que entró a la universidad como estudiante de trabajo social.Pero comenzó a hacerse de un nombre al diseñar piezas cada vez más elaboradas para una lista creciente de clientas, encontrando inspiración en internet y vendiendo su trabajo a través de Instagram y Facebook. Entonces, en 2019, Márquez lo llamó. Una amistad en común se lo había recomendado y necesitaba un traje.Sinisterra cursa el séptimo de ocho semestres en la universidad. Cuando no está en clases, cose los trajes de la vicepresidenta en una habitación sin ventanas de su pequeño apartamento en Cali. Su novio, Andrés Mena, de 27 años, es un exenfermero que cambió de profesión para convertirse en director general de Esteban African.Sinisterra con su  novio, Andrés Mena, a la izquierdaNathalia Angarita para The New York TimesEntre los artículos más conocidos de la marca hay dos pares de aretes. Uno de ellos muestra el mapa de Colombia, con sus 32 departamentos grabados. El segundo simula dos orbes de oro, concebido para evocar las bateas mineras que Márquez usaba de niña en las montañas del Cauca, cerca de la costa del Pacífico, mucho antes de convertirse en una figura conocida.Márquez alguna vez durmió en un suelo de tierra junto a sus hermanos. Más tarde trabajó como empleada doméstica para mantener a sus hijos, estudió derecho y acabó ganando un premio conocido como el Nobel del medio ambiente.En una entrevista, calificó el trabajo de Sinisterra como una parte fundamental de su identidad política. “Le muestra a la juventud que se puede”, dijo, “usando su talento se puede salir adelante”.Sinisterra nunca ha estado en África. Sueña con ir, así como estudiar moda en París y “montar una escuela donde los jóvenes del Pacífico tengan alternativas”, señaló, “y los papás, no como el mío, no piensen que solamente coser, cortar y hacer ropa es de chicas”.Hoy, contó, su padre está orgulloso de su trabajo.Últimamente, los medios de comunicación y los clientes lo bombardean, y él gestiona su nueva fama trabajando las 24 horas del día.Un día de julio, descalzo y sudoroso, puso un par de telas en el suelo, las cortó a mano alzada y luego las hilvanó con una nueva máquina de Jinthex que había comprado con sus mejorados ingresos. Estaba haciendo otro vestido para Márquez.El día de las elecciones, en junio, la vistió con tela kente, un estampado ghanés cuyas líneas entrelazadas evocan los tejidos de las cestas, para simbolizar la recolección de los votos.Márquez con un vestido en kente el día de las elecciones presidencialesFederico Rios para The New York TimesEl vestido tenía un volante en la parte delantera, que representaba los ríos de la región natal de Márquez, y la chaqueta sobre los hombros, toda blanca, simbolizaba la paz, explicó, “en este país que está tan desintegrado por las posturas políticas”.Ha confeccionado tres trajes para el día de la toma de posesión. “La que ella decida para mí está bien”, aseguró.Mientras planchaba la pieza recién ensamblada, dijo que estaba a la vez emocionado y ansioso por el ascenso de Márquez al poder.En los últimos meses, ha llegado a sentirse parte de su proyecto político, y ella ha hecho enormes promesas para transformar el país tras décadas de injusticia.“La responsabilidad va a crecer”, dijo.“Mi responsabilidad, la de Francia, respaldando el proceso en que la gente —nuestra gente— no se sienta engañada”.Julie Turkewitz es jefa del buró de los Andes, que cubre Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Perú, Surinam y Guyana. Antes de mudarse a América del Sur, fue corresponsal de temas nacionales y cubrió el oeste de Estados Unidos. @julieturkewitz More

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      As Latin America Shifts Left, Leaders Face a Bleak Reality.

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      All six of the region’s largest economies could soon be run by presidents elected on leftist platforms. Their challenge? Inflation, war in Europe and growing poverty at home.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — In Chile, a tattooed former student activist won the presidency with a pledge to oversee the most profound transformation of Chilean society in decades, widening the social safety net and shifting the tax burden to the wealthy.In Peru, the son of poor farmers was propelled to victory on a vow to prioritize struggling families, feed the hungry and correct longstanding disparities in access to health care and education.In Colombia, a former rebel and longtime legislator was elected the country’s first leftist president, promising to champion the rights of Indigenous, Black and poor Colombians, while building an economy that works for everyone.“A new story for Colombia, for Latin America, for the world,” he said in his victory speech, to thunderous applause.After years of tilting rightward, Latin America is hurtling to the left, a watershed moment that began in 2018 with the election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico and could culminate with a victory later this year by a leftist candidate in Brazil, leaving the region’s six largest economies run by leaders elected on leftist platforms.A combination of forces have thrust this new group into power, including an anti-incumbent fervor driven by anger over chronic poverty and inequality, which have only been exacerbated by the pandemic and have deepened frustration among voters who have taken out their indignation on establishment candidates.During the height of a coronavirus wave in Peru last year, people waited to refill oxygen tanks for loved ones on the outskirts of Lima. Marco Garro for The New York TimesBut just as new leaders settle into office, their campaign pledges have collided with a bleak reality, including a European war that has sent the cost of everyday goods, from fuel to food, soaring, making life more painful for already suffering constituents and evaporating much of the good will presidents once enjoyed.Chile’s Gabriel Boric, Peru’s Pedro Castillo and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro are among the leaders who rode to victory promising to help the poor and disenfranchised, but who find themselves facing enormous challenges in trying to meet the high expectations of voters.Unlike today, the last significant leftist shift in Latin America, in the first decade of the millennium, was propelled by a commodities boom that allowed leaders to expand social programs and move an extraordinary number of people into the middle class, raising expectations for millions of families.Now that middle class is sliding backward, and instead of a boom, governments face pandemic-battered budgets, galloping inflation fed by the war in Ukraine, rising migration and increasingly dire economic and social consequences of climate change.In Argentina, where the leftist Alberto Fernández took the reins from a right-wing president in late 2019, protesters have taken to the streets amid rising prices. Even larger protests erupted recently in Ecuador, threatening the government of one of the region’s few newly elected right-wing presidents, Guillermo Lasso.“I don’t want to be apocalyptic about it,” said Cynthia Arnson, a distinguished fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “But there are times when you look at this that it feels like the perfect storm, the number of things hitting the region at once.”Protesters in Santiago, Chile, in 2019, demanding economic changes to address systemic inequality. The country’s new president, elected last year, has become deeply unpopular among Chileans angry over rising prices.Tomas Munita for The New York TimesThe rise of social media, with the potential to supercharge discontent and drive major protest movements, including in Chile and Colombia, has shown people the power of the streets.Beginning in August, when Mr. Petro takes over from his conservative predecessor, five of the six largest economies in the region will be run by leaders who campaigned from the left.The sixth, Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, could swing that way in a national election in October. Polls show that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a fiery leftist, has a wide lead on the right-wing incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro.New leaders in Colombia and Chile are far more socially progressive than leftists in the past, calling for a shift away from fossil fuels and advocating for abortion rights at a time when the United States Supreme Court is moving the country in the opposite direction.But taken together, this group is extremely mixed, differing on everything from economic policy to their commitment to democratic principles.Mr. Petro and Mr. Boric have vowed to vastly expand social programs for the poor, for example, while Mr. López Obrador, who is focused on austerity, is reducing spending.What does link these leaders, however, are promises for sweeping change that in many instances are running headlong into difficult and growing challenges.Gustavo Petro and his running mate, Francia Márquez, celebrated their victory in June in Colombia’s national election. They will lead a country where 40 percent of the people lives on less than half of the monthly minimum wage.Federico Rios for The New York TimesIn Chile late last year, Mr. Boric beat José Antonio Kast, a right-wing establishment politician associated with Chile’s former dictator, Augusto Pinochet, by pledging to jettison the neoliberal economic policies of the past.But just months into his term, with an inexperienced cabinet, divided Congress, rising consumer prices and unrest in the country’s south, Mr. Boric’s approval ratings have plummeted.Ninety percent of poll respondents told the polling firm Cadem this month that they believed the country’s economy was stuck or going backward.Like many neighbors in the region, Chile’s yearly inflation rate is the highest it has been in more than a generation, at 11.5 percent, spurring a cost-of-living crisis.In southern Chile, a land struggle between the Mapuche, the country’s largest Indigenous group, and the state has entered its deadliest phase in 20 years, leading Mr. Boric to reverse course on one of his campaign pledges and redeploy troops in the area.Catalina Becerra, 37, a human resources manager from Antofagasta, in northern Chile, said that “like many people of my generation” she voted for Mr. Boric because Mr. Kast “didn’t represent me in the slightest.”Students taking part in an anti-government protest in June in Santiago.Javier Torres/Agence France-Presse, via Getty Images“But I wasn’t convinced by what he could do for the country,’’ Ms. Becerra added. “He has not achieved what he said he would.”In September, Chileans will vote on a remarkably progressive constitution that enshrines gender equality, environmental protections and Indigenous rights and that is meant to replace a Pinochet-era document.The president has bound his success to the referendum, putting himself in a precarious position should the draft be rejected, which polls show is for now the more likely outcome.In neighboring Peru, Mr. Castillo rose last year from virtual anonymity to beat Keiko Fujimori, a right-wing career politician whose father, former President Alberto Fujimori, governed with an iron fist and introduced neoliberal policies similar to those rejected by Chilean voters.While some Peruvians supported Mr. Castillo solely as a rejection of Ms. Fujimori, he also represented real hopes for many, especially poor and rural voters.As a candidate, Mr. Castillo promised to empower farmers with more subsidies, access to credit and technical assistance.But today, he is barely managing to survive politically. He has governed erratically, pulled between his far-left party and the far-right opposition, reflecting the fractious politics that helped him win the presidency.Supporters of Peru’s leftist presidential candidate Pedro Castillo during a protest against his rival’s effort to annul votes in 2021. Mr. Castillo won the election but is barely managing to survive politically. Marco Garro for The New York TimesMr. Castillo — whose approval rating has sunk to 19 percent, according to the Institute of Peruvian Studies — is now subject to five criminal probes, has already faced two impeachment attempts and cycled through seven interior ministers.The agrarian reform he pledged has yet to translate into any concrete policies. Instead, price spikes for food, fuel and fertilizer are hitting his base the hardest.Farmers are struggling through one of the worst crises in decades, facing the biggest planting season of the year without widespread access to synthetic fertilizer. They normally get most of it from Russia, but it is difficult to obtain because of global supply disruptions related to the war.Eduardo Zegarra, an investigator at GRADE, a research institute, called the situation “unprecedented.”“I think this is going to unfold very dramatically, and usher in a lot of instability,” he said.In a poor, hillside neighborhood in Lima, the capital, many parents are skipping meals so their children have more to eat.“We voted for Castillo because we had the hope that his government would be different,” said Ruth Canchari, 29, a stay-at-home mother of three children. “But he’s not taking action.”In Colombia, Mr. Petro will take office facing many of the same headwinds.President Gabriel Boric of Chile flashed a victory sign after his swearing-in ceremony at Congress in Valparaiso in March.Esteban Felix/Associated PressPoverty has risen — 40 percent of households now live on less than $100 a month, less than half of the monthly minimum wage — while inflation has hit nearly 10 percent.Still, despite widespread financial anxiety, Mr. Petro’s actions as he prepares to assume office seem to have earned him some support.He has made repeated calls for national consensus, met with his biggest political foe, the right-wing former president Álvaro Uribe, and appointed a widely respected, relatively conservative and Yale-educated finance minister.The moves may allow Mr. Petro to govern more successfully than, say, Mr. Boric, said Daniel García-Peña, a political scientist, and have calmed down some fears about how he will try to revive the economy.But given how quickly the honeymoon period ended for others, Mr. Petro will have precious little time to start delivering relief.“Petro must come through for his voters,” said Hernan Morantes, 30, a Petro supporter and environmental activist. “Social movements must be ready, so that when the government does not come through, or does not want to come through, we’re ready.”Julie Turkewitz More

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      in Elections

      ¿Qué prometió Gustavo Petro?

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      Durante su campaña, el candiato de izquierda Gustavo Petro propuso importantes reformas. Después de ganar las elecciones del domingo tendrá que demostrar que es capaz de implementar esos cambios.BOGOTÁ — En un estadio repleto de Bogotá, en medio de una explosión de confeti y debajo de un cartel que decía “Colombia ganó”, Gustavo Petro celebró el domingo su victoria como el primer presidente de izquierda que ha sido elegido en Colombia.“Llegó el gobierno de la esperanza”, dijo el exguerrillero y veterano senador, en medio de una cascada de aplausos y vítores.Durante décadas, Colombia ha sido uno de los países más conservadores de América Latina, donde la izquierda se ha asociado con una insurgencia violenta y algunos candidatos presidenciales de izquierda anteriores fueron asesinados durante sus campañas electorales.En ese contexto, la victoria de Petro fue histórica, una señal de la frustración de los votantes con el establecimiento político de derecha que, según muchos, no logró atender los problemas de generaciones que vivieron en condiciones de pobreza y desigualdad que solo empeoraron durante la pandemia.El hecho de que Petro eligiera como compañera de fórmula a Francia Márquez, una activista ambiental que será la primera vicepresidenta negra del país, hizo que la victoria fuese aún más excepcional. Algunas de las tasas de participación electoral más altas se registraron en varias zonas de las regiones más pobres y abandonadas del país, lo que sugiere que muchas personas se identificaron con los llamados repetidos de Márquez a la inclusión, la justicia social y la protección del medioambiente.Como candidato, Petro prometió cambiar algunos de los sectores más importantes de la sociedad colombiana en una nación que se encuentra entre las más desiguales de América Latina.Pero ahora que ocupará el palacio presidencial, pronto tendrá que convertir esas promesas, algunas de las cuales los críticos califican como radicales, en acciones.“Hay un programa de transformaciones muy profundas”, dijo Yann Basset, profesor de ciencias políticas en la Universidad del Rosario en Bogotá. “En todos esos temas va a necesitar de un apoyo importante del Congreso, lo que promete ser bastante difícil”.Simpatizantes de Petro en Bucaramanga, Colombia, el domingo.Nathalia Angarita para The New York TimesPetro ha prometido ampliar los programas sociales, proporcionar un subsidio significativo para las madres solteras, garantizar trabajo y un ingreso para las personas desempleadas, reforzar el acceso a la educación superior, aumentar la ayuda alimentaria, cambiar el país a un sistema de salud controlado públicamente y rehacer el sistema de pensiones.Dice que los fondos para esos cambios, en parte, se obtendrán de aumentar los impuestos a las 4000 familias más ricas del país, eliminando algunos beneficios fiscales corporativos, aumentando algunos aranceles de importación y atacando a los evasores de impuestos.Una parte central de su plataforma es un plan para pasar de lo que él define como la “vieja economía extractivista” de Colombia, basada en el petróleo y el carbón, a una enfocada en otras industrias, en parte para luchar contra el cambio climático.Algunas de las políticas de Petro podrían causar tensión con Estados Unidos que ha invertido durante las últimas dos décadas miles de millones de dólares en Colombia para ayudar a sus gobiernos a detener la producción y exportación de cocaína, con poco éxito. Petro ha prometido rehacer la estrategia del país contra las drogas, alejándose de la erradicación de los cultivos de coca, el producto base de la cocaína, para enfatizar el desarrollo rural.Washington ya ha comenzado a moverse en la dirección de priorizar el desarrollo, pero Petro podría chocar con los funcionarios estadounidenses por su visión precisa sobre ese tema.Petro también se ha comprometido a implementar por completo el acuerdo de paz de 2016 con el grupo rebelde más grande del país, las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, o FARC, y a frenar la destrucción de la Amazonía colombiana, donde la deforestación ha alcanzado nuevos máximos en los últimos años.Uno de los mayores desafíos de Petro será financiar su ambiciosa agenda, especialmente encontrar nuevos ingresos para compensar la pérdida de dinero del petróleo y el carbón mientras se expanden los programas sociales.Recientemente, otros dos políticos de izquierda, Gabriel Boric en Chile y Pedro Castillo en Perú, asumieron la presidencia con promesas de extender los programas sociales, pero su popularidad se desplomó, entre otros factores, en medio de la creciente inflación.Colombia recauda menos impuestos en proporción de su producto interno bruto en comparación con casi todos los demás países de la región.El país ya tiene un déficit elevado, y el año pasado, cuando el presidente actual, Iván Duque, intentó impulsar un plan fiscal para ayudar a bajarlo, cientos de miles de personas salieron a las calles a protestar.“Las cifras presupuestarias simplemente no cuadran”, escribió James Bosworth, fundador de Hxagon, una firma de consultoría de riesgo político en Bogotá, en un boletín enviado el lunes. “Es probable que los costos de los programas sociales propuestos por Petro consuman el presupuesto y dejen un déficit que crecerá con rapidez”.“Para el segundo o tercer año de su gobierno”, continuó Bosworth, “tendrá que tomar decisiones difíciles debido a las restricciones financieras y eso terminará molestando a una parte de la coalición que lo eligió”.Mauricio Cárdenas, exministro de Hacienda, dijo que el primer paso que debe dar Petro es anunciar un ministro de Hacienda con experiencia que pueda sosegar los temores del mercado y de los inversionistas al asegurarle a la gente que no incentivará un gasto descontrolado o una intervención gubernamental excesiva.Otro reto importante podría ser trabajar con el Congreso. La coalición de Petro, Pacto Histórico, tiene la mayor cantidad de integrantes en la legislatura. Pero no tiene una mayoría, que necesitará para impulsar su agenda. Ya se ha acercado a líderes políticos fuera de su coalición, pero no está claro cuánto apoyo obtendrá y si la formación de nuevas alianzas lo obligará a renunciar a algunas de sus propuestas.“Yo creo que tendrá que abandonar ciertas partes de este programa”, dijo Basset. “De todos modos, yo creo que no tiene una mayoría para implementar todo lo que ha prometido”.Petro también heredará una sociedad profundamente polarizada, dividida por clase, raza, región y etnicidad y marcada por años de violencia y conflicto.Durante décadas, el gobierno de Colombia luchó contra las FARC, y el conflicto armado se convirtió en un enfrentamiento intrincado entre grupos guerrilleros de izquierda, paramilitares de derecha y militares, todos los cuales han sido acusados de abusos contra los derechos humanos.A pesar del acuerdo de paz de 2016 con las FARC, muchas de las líneas divisorias del conflicto continúan, y han sido amplificadas por las redes sociales, que permitieron que los rumores y la desinformación circularan.Las encuestas previas a las elecciones mostraban una desconfianza en aumento en casi todas las instituciones importantes.“En mi opinión, esta elección es, por mucho, la más polarizada que hemos visto en Colombia en muchos años”, dijo Arlene B. Tickner, politóloga de la Universidad de Rosario. “Creo que será un desafío clave el solo hecho de calmar las aguas y hablarle en particular a los votantes y sectores de la sociedad colombiana que no votaron por él y que tienen temores considerables sobre la presidencia de Petro”.Una de las tareas más difíciles de Petro podría ser abordar la violencia en el campo.A pesar del acuerdo de paz, los grupos armados han seguido creciendo, especialmente en áreas rurales, alimentándose del narcotráfico, la industria ganadera, el tráfico de personas y otras actividades.Los homicidios, las masacres y los asesinatos de líderes sociales aumentaron en los últimos años, y el desplazamiento interno sigue siendo alto: 147.000 personas fueron obligadas a huir de sus hogares el año pasado, según datos del gobierno.Muchas personas afectadas por esta violencia votaron por Petro y Márquez, quien nació en el Cauca, una de las zonas más afectadas de Colombia.El plan de Petro para enfrentar la violencia incluye una reforma agraria que desalentaría con impuestos la propiedad de grandes parcelas de tierra y otorgaría títulos de propiedad a los pobres, cuya falta de recursos a menudo los obliga a unirse a grupos armados.Pero, presidencia tras presidencia, los intentos de emprender una reforma agraria han sido obstaculizados, y Petro admitió en una entrevista de este año que puede ser “lo más duro” de cumplir de sus promesas de campaña.“Es alrededor del tema en el que en Colombia se han hecho las guerras”, dijo.Megan Janetsky More

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      in World Politics

      France and Colombia: The Center Keeps Trying (but Failing) to Hold

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      The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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      in Elections

      He Promised to Transform Colombia as President. Can He Fulfill That Vow?

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      During his campaign, Gustavo Petro proposed major reforms if he was elected. After winning Sunday’s presidential election, he’ll now have to prove he can carry out those changes.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — In a packed arena in Bogotá on Sunday, amid a burst of confetti and below a sign that read “Colombia won,” Gustavo Petro celebrated his victory as the first leftist ever elected president of Colombia.“The government of hope has arrived,” said the former rebel and longtime legislator, to a cascade of cheers.For decades, Colombia has been one of the most conservative countries in Latin America, where the left has long been associated with a violent insurgency and past leftist presidential candidates have been assassinated on the campaign trail.Against that backdrop, Mr. Petro’s win was historic, signaling voters’ frustration with a right-wing establishment that many said had failed to address generations of poverty and inequality that have only worsened during the pandemic.Mr. Petro’s choice for running mate, Francia Márquez, an environmental activist who will be the country’s first Black vice president, made the victory all the more exceptional. Some of the highest voter turnout rates were recorded in some of the poorest and most neglected parts of the country, suggesting that many people identified with her prominent and repeated calls for inclusion, social justice and environmental protection.As a candidate, Mr. Petro promised to reshape some of the most important sectors of Colombian society in a nation that is among the most unequal in Latin America.But now that he will occupy the presidential palace, he will soon have to turn those pledges — some of which critics call radical — into action.“This is a program of very deep transformations,” said Yann Basset, a political science professor at Rosario University in Bogotá. “On all these issues he is going to need significant support from Congress, which promises to be quite difficult.”Supporters of Mr. Petro on Sunday in Bucaramanga, Colombia.Nathalia Angarita for The New York TimesMr. Petro has vowed to vastly expand social programs, providing a significant subsidy to single mothers, guaranteeing work and a wage to unemployed people, bolstering access to higher education, increasing food aid, shifting the country to a publicly controlled health care system and remaking the pension system.He will pay for this, in part, he says, by raising taxes on the 4,000 wealthiest families, removing some corporate tax benefits, raising some import tariffs and targeting tax evaders.A core part of his platform is a plan to shift from what he calls Colombia’s “old extractive economy,” based on oil and coal, to one focused on other industries, in part to fight climate change.Some of Mr. Petro’s policies could cause tension with the United States, which has poured billions of dollars into Colombia in the last two decades to help its governments halt the production and export of cocaine, to little effect. Mr. Petro has promised to remake the country’s strategy on drugs, shifting away from the eradication of the coca crop, the base product in cocaine, to emphasizing rural development.Washington has already begun moving in the direction of prioritizing development, but Mr. Petro could clash with U.S. officials on precisely what this looks like.Mr. Petro has also pledged to fully implement the 2016 peace deal with the country’s largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and to slow the destruction of the Colombian Amazon, where deforestation has risen to new highs in recent years.One of Mr. Petro’s biggest challenges will be paying for his ambitious agenda, in particular finding new revenue to compensate for lost oil and coal money while expanding social programs.Two other leftists, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Pedro Castillo in Peru, have taken office recently with ambitious promises to expand social programs, only to have their popularity plummet amid rising inflation, among other issues.Colombia collects less in taxes as a proportion of its gross domestic product compared with almost every other country in the region.The country already has a high deficit, and last year, when the current president, Iván Duque, attempted to pursue a tax plan to help lower it, hundreds of thousands of people took to the street in protest.“The budget numbers just don’t add up,” James Bosworth, the founder of Hxagon, a political risk consulting firm in Bogotá, wrote in a newsletter on Monday. “The costs on Petro’s proposed social programs are likely to burn through the budget and leave a rapidly widening deficit.”“By year two or three of his administration,” Mr. Bosworth continued, “he’s going to have to make tough choices due to financial restrictions and that will end up angering some portion of the coalition that elected him.”Mauricio Cárdenas, a former finance minister, said that the first step Mr. Petro should take is to announce an experienced finance minister who can calm market and investor fears by assuring the public that he will not be engaging in runaway spending or excessive government intervention.Another major challenge could be working with Congress. Mr. Petro’s coalition, called the Historic Pact, has the largest number of lawmakers in the legislature. But he does not have a majority, which he will need to push through his agenda. He has already reached out to political leaders outside his coalition, but it’s unclear how much support he will gain — and whether forming new alliances will force him to give up some of his proposals. “I think he is going to have to abandon certain parts of this program,” Mr. Basset said. “In any case, I believe that he does not have a majority to implement everything he has promised.”Mr. Petro will also inherit a deeply polarized society, divided by class, race, region and ethnicity and scarred by years of violence and war.For decades, Colombia’s government fought the FARC, and the war grew into a complex battle among left-wing guerrilla groups, right-wing paramilitaries and the military, all of which have been accused of human rights abuses.Despite the 2016 peace accord with the FARC, many of the fault lines of the conflict remain, which has been supercharged by social media, allowing rumor and misinformation to fly.Polls before the election showed growing distrust in almost all major institutions.“This election in my mind is by far the most polarized that we’ve seen in Colombia in many years,” said Arlene B. Tickner, a political scientist at Rosario University. “So simply calming the waters and speaking to in particular those voters and those sectors of Colombian society that did not choose him, and that have significant fears about a Petro presidency, I think is going to be a key challenge.”One of Mr. Petro’s most difficult tasks could be addressing violence in the countryside.Despite the peace deal, armed groups have continued to flourish, mostly in rural areas, feeding off the drug trade, the cattle industry, human trafficking and other activities.Homicides, massacres and the killings of social leaders are all up in recent years, and internal displacement remains high, with 147,000 people forced to flee their homes last year, according to government data.Many people affected by this violence voted for Mr. Petro and Ms. Márquez, who was born in Cauca, one of the hardest hit parts of Colombia.Mr. Petro’s plan to address the violence includes a land reform that would discourage the ownership of large land parcels through taxation and give land titles to poor people whose lack of resources often indentures them to armed groups.But land reform has stymied president after president, and Mr. Petro admitted in an interview this year that it may be “the hardest” part of his campaign pledges to fulfill.“Because it’s this topic that has caused Colombia’s wars,” he said.Megan Janetsky contributed reporting. 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