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      He Promised Change in Thailand. But Will He Be Allowed to Lead?

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      Pita Limjaroenrat led his party to victory in the Thai election and seems poised to become the next prime minister, unless the military blocks him.When Pita Limjaroenrat was a student at Harvard in 2008, he shadowed his American classmates who were campaigning at the time for former President Barack Obama. The experience gave him a window into electoral politics, from phone banks and polling data to knocking on doors and putting campaign flags on front lawns.Fifteen years later, Mr. Pita said he used what he learned in Massachusetts to help his recent campaign in Thailand, where he stunned the country’s political establishment by leading his progressive Move Forward Party to a momentous victory.For decades, Thai voters had known only two dominant political forces: one led by conservative royalists and militarists and the other by a populist billionaire living in exile. Supporters saw Mr. Pita, 42, as the candidate who represented change and a return to democracy after nine years of military rule that was preceded by a coup. On the stump, he promised to undo the military’s grip on Thai politics and revise a law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.But his path to prime minister remains uncertain.Mr. Pita greeting supporters during a voter thank you parade culminating in Owl Market in Nonthaburi, on Thursday.Lauren DeCicca for The New York Times“What I need to do now is to find a road-map that bridges that gap between a functioning democracy and half-baked democracy at the very end of nine-year rule by a military coup,” he said in an interview with The New York Times.In order to take the role, Mr. Pita needs to gather enough support in the 500-member House of Representatives to overcome a 250-member, military-appointed Senate. To be precise, he needs 376 votes. So far, he only has 314.Already, several senators have said they would not support a candidate who so threatens the status quo. Now, Thais are waiting to see if their choice will be allowed to lead or if he will be blocked from becoming prime minister by prevailing powers, an outcome that could plunge the country into political chaos.Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 so a Senate stacked with military allies could jointly determine the top leader. Conservatives are counting on an Election Commission complaint that has been filed against Mr. Pita for failing to disclose that he owned shares of a now-defunct media company that he inherited from his father.So far, Mr. Pita has brushed off the petition to investigate him, saying he had already reported the shares to the authorities. He also said he believed there was a group of senators who had “felt their conscience” and understood the consequences of going against the 25 million Thais who voted for change. Only 14 senators have indicated that they would vote for him.Mr. Pita said that watching friends at Harvard campaigning for Barack Obama in 2008 helped inform his campaign this year.Lauren DeCicca for The New York TimesMr. Pita graduated with a joint degree from the Harvard Kennedy School and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’ Sloan School of Management. From his time in the United States, he learned how to map out a campaign strategy, which he put to use in this election by using data to reach voters in 160 districts.Most of Mr. Pita’s career was in consulting and business, as a managing director of the rice-bran oil business that his father started, and then as a senior executive for Grab, the ride-hailing company that acquired Uber in Southeast Asia.As a candidate, Mr. Pita developed a reputation for being a clear orator, winning the public over with his speeches and polished looks.He said he admires José Alberto “Pepe” Mujica Cordano, the former president of Uruguay, who was tortured and imprisoned during the country’s military dictatorship. He is reading “It’s OK to Be Angry About Capitalism” by Senator Bernie Sanders. Some of his favorite bands are Metallica, The Strokes, and Rage Against the Machine. One viral video on TikTok shows a Thai woman holding a mock marriage ceremony with a cutout of Mr. Pita, who is divorced and has a young daughter.Supporters cheer for Mr. Pita and his Move Forward Party during the rally in Nonthaburi on Thursday.Lauren DeCicca for The New York Times“For a lot of the middle class, especially upper-middle class Thais, he’s like the ideal son-in law that you’d like to have — very educated, accomplished, good-looking, poised,” said Duncan McCargo, a political science professor at the University of Copenhagen.Mr. Pita was drawn to the ideas of the founder of the Future Forward party, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, in 2018, and within a few months was asked to join. He became the leader of Move Forward after Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved Future Forward in 2020 and barred its senior executives from politics for 10 years.If his bid for prime minister is successful, Mr. Pita has promised to reset Thailand’s foreign policy, saying the country would “not be part of the Chinese umbrella or the American umbrella,” but will have the ability to determine its own destiny, Mr. Pita said. In March 2022, after Moscow invaded Ukraine, he wrote on Twitter that the Russians must “retrieve” their troops immediately.“A lot of it is personal,” said Fuadi Pitsuwan, a fellow at Chiang Mai University and foreign policy adviser to Mr. Pita, referring to the candidate’s strong reaction to the invasion. “He will be a foreign policy leader, which, in Thailand, is rare.”Mr. Pita takes a moment for an iced latte in Bangkok before heading to Nonthaburi Province on Thursday.Lauren DeCicca for The New York TimesMr. Pita’s reputation has not gone unscathed. His ex-wife, Chutima Teepanart, an actress with whom he shares a daughter, accused him of domestic violence in 2019. A family court found Mr. Pita not guilty of the charge. Ms. Chutima did not respond to multiple requests for comment.In an interview, Mr. Pita said “there was no domestic violence, whether it’s physical abuse or emotional abuse, ever in my family.”Mr. Pita was born to a wealthy, well-connected family. His late father served as an adviser to the agriculture minister, and his uncle was once a close aide to Thaksin Shinawatra, the populist billionaire whose youngest daughter was one of Mr. Pita’s rivals in the election.His uncle was a former commerce minister in the early 1980s but was later jailed for misconduct when he was a banker, a case that Mr. Pita described as politically motivated. A salient childhood memory includes visiting his uncle in prison, which made him see “how dirty or how brutal politics could be,” he said.Over the years, Mr. Pita said he was struck by how Thailand seemed constantly trapped in a cycle of political turmoil, precipitated either by people “using the king to destroy a political opponent or using the monarchy as an excuse to fight for something.”He started studying other countries with constitutional monarchies including England, Japan and Norway, and said he began to see why the relationship between the Thai monarchy and the people was “going downhill” with each passing decade.Mr. Pita entering a news conference on Thursday, to speak with journalists about forming a coalition with other political parties.Lauren DeCicca for The New York TimesWith Move Forward, he wants “to have a comprehensive discussion in Parliament about what the role of the monarchy in a constitutional democracy should be in modern Thailand,” an idea that was once considered taboo among many Thais for whom the royal family has become a fixture in daily life.In a response to calls for checks on the monarchy’s power — precipitated by protests in 2020 — the military and royalists have come together to defend the institution.In the aftermath of the protests, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who led the previous coup and whose party was trounced in the election, ordered a crackdown. More than 200 protesters, including 17 minors, have since been detained for criticizing the monarchy.During a final rally before the vote, Mr. Pita reminded the crowd that even a 15-year-old girl had been among those detained for violating the royal criticism law. On Monday, he spoke in front of thousands of his supporters as they celebrated his election victory.Standing in front of a giant portrait of the king in the center of Bangkok, he addressed the crowd, telling them “a new day for the people has arrived.”Ryn Jirenuwat More

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      In Blow to Junta, Thai Voters Overwhelmingly Back Opposition Parties

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      Thais on Sunday cast votes against their military leaders, backing instead a populist political mainstay and a progressive upstart bent on shaking up the status quo.Voters in Thailand overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule on Sunday, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of the country’s powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted early Monday morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.In most parliamentary systems, the two parties would form a new governing coalition and choose a prime minister. But under the rules of the current Thai system, written by the military after its 2014 coup, the junta will still play kingmaker.The election had widely been seen as an easy victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. A billionaire tycoon, Mr. Thaksin, 73, was ousted in a coup in 2006 after accusations of corruption, but he is still fondly remembered as a populist champion for the rural poor. Polls had showed that Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, was the leading choice for prime minister.But in a surprise, the Move Forward Party, a progressive political party that called for upending old power structures and amending a law that criminalizes public criticism of the monarchy, made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and the capital, Bangkok.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “People want change, and not just a change of government, they want structural reform.”Supporters of the Move Forward Party react as they watch results come in at the party headquarters in Bangkok on Sunday night.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe key question that many Thais now have is whether the military establishment, which has long kept an iron grip on Thailand’s politics, will accept the result.Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including mandatory military conscription and the laws that protect the king from criticism. And having the Pheu Thai Party in government could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics.The results were a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who governed Thailand for almost nine years, the longest stretch of military governance in a nation used to coups.Mr. Prayuth has presided over a lagging economy, and in 2020 waged a harsh crackdown on protesters who gathered in the streets of Bangkok to call for democratic reforms. Although Thailand is one of two formal U.S. allies in Southeast Asia, he distanced himself from Washington and leaned closer to Beijing.As of early Monday, it remained unclear who would ultimately lead the country. The junta rewrote the country’s Constitution in 2017 so that selecting the prime minister would come down to a joint vote between the 250-member military-appointed Senate and the popularly elected House of Representatives. The decision could take weeks or months.Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with each other and other parties to establish a coalition. Analysts said Move Forward’s stance on changing the royal protection law might complicate negotiations for forming a coalition. Before the vote, Move Forward attempted to moderate its position on the measure, toning down its calls for reform.Pheu Thai Party’s prime ministerial candidates Paetongtarn Shinawatra, center, and Srettha Thavisin, third from left, in Bangkok on Sunday night.Manan Vatsyayana/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut on Sunday, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward made it clear that the amendment was still high on his party’s agenda, saying they now have enough members of Parliament to push it forward.“So it’s not conditional, it’s already absolute that we are going with it,” he said.Mr. Pita, 42, a former businessman, was fielded as Move Forward’s leader after the country’s Constitutional Court dissolved the party’s previous iteration, the Future Forward Party, in 2020, and barred the party’s senior executives from politics for 10 years. A graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Pita is a charismatic speaker, who called on voters to create “a new history in Thai politics.”His background as a technocrat contrasts with the leading contender from Pheu Thai, which has sought to promote Ms. Paetongtarn, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter.Ms. Paetongtarn, an executive in her family’s hotel management company with little political experience, was selected to run after her father said people “wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.”She proved to be an effective campaigner, stumping even in the last weeks of her pregnancy. (She gave birth on May 1 and quickly returned to the campaign trail.) The strong showing for Move Forward was remarkable for a party that was thought to be too radical for the general population. Move Forward ran on a platform that included legalizing same-sex marriage and a $13 daily minimum wage.The election was cast as an existential struggle for the future of the country. Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward campaigned on pledges to return Thailand to the path of electoral democracy, calling on people to reject the “uncles” or the “Three Ps,” referring to the generals who have governed Thailand since the coup: Mr. Prayuth, Deputy Prime Minister General Prawit “Pom” Wongsuwan and Interior Minister General Anupong “Pok” Paochinda.United Thai Nation Party’s candidate Prayut Chan-O-Cha in Bangkok on Sunday.Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMove Forward was even more emphatic in saying that it would never work with military-backed parties, a stance that drew more voters to the party. Several youths who had joined the 2020 protests campaigned as first-time candidates for Move Forward in the election.The vote underscored just how politically fragmented the nation of 72 million is now. No longer is it split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite. Now it is divided along generational lines.On Sunday, millions of Thais lined up in roughly 100-degree heat to cast their vote.“I really hope for change,” said Saisunee Chawasirikunthon, 48, an employee at a telecommunications company. “We have lived with the same old thing for the past eight years.”During his final rally on Friday, Mr. Prayuth, the former general, urged voters to choose continuity, playing a video that showed graffiti on the Democracy Monument in Bangkok and a young girl uploading a pornographic clip of herself because she had “freedom.”“We don’t need change that flips the country,” he said.For the past century, Thailand has swung between civilian democracy and military control, with the armed forces engineering a dozen coups within that period. On Thursday, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, Thailand’s army chief, took pains to assure the public that things would be different this time.He said that the country had learned its lessons from its past, and that “politics in a democratic system must continue,” although he added that he “cannot guarantee” that another coup would not happen. More

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      Thailand’s Election: What to Watch and What’s at Stake

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      The vote is seen as a referendum on the military, which has ruled Thailand for nine years. Results could determine the path for democracy in the country.Thai voters headed to the polls on Sunday in a hotly contested election that will determine whether Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who seized power in a coup in 2014, is unseated by his rivals.An observer of Thai politics has called the election the most consequential one in his lifetime.Opinion polls show that many voters want change, backing opposition parties that have promised to restore democratic rule in Thailand and roll back some of the authoritarian policies introduced by Mr. Prayuth.There is a broad sentiment that Mr. Prayuth has done little to boost the economy after nine years in power. His harsh crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020 has also alienated many voters.Thailand’s prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, center, campaigning for the United Thai Nation Party in Narathiwat on Monday.Madaree Tohlala/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“If we end up with more or less the same kind of government that we’ve had for years, there’ll be a lot of unhappiness, a lot of grievances in Thailand,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, referring to the country’s economic stagnation.Here is what you need to know about the election.Who is the front-runner?Paetongtarn Shinawatra, of the populist Pheu Thai Party, is the current front-runner for prime minister, according to most opinion polls. The 36-year-old — known in Thailand as “Ung Ing” — is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, and much of her appeal rests on her family name.Mr. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and is still fondly remembered by many Thais for starting a $1 universal health care program and for distributing subsidies to farmers. Since 2001, the populist political parties he founded, including Pheu Thai, have consistently won the most votes in every election.But Mr. Thaksin, a billionaire tycoon, remains widely disliked by wealthy conservatives and the military. The army overthrew him in a coup in 2006, and Mr. Thaksin fled the country. (His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, also met a similar fate eight years later, after her tenure as prime minister.) Mr. Thaksin, who lives mostly in Dubai, was sentenced in absentia to 12 years for corruption and abuse of power.The Pheu Thai Party’s prime minister candidate, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, greeting the media with her newborn son at a news conference at a Bangkok hospital in May.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockMs. Paetongtarn’s rise has fueled questions about whether she would bring her father back to Thailand, and many Thais are now bracing for a possible repeat of the instability that defined the two previous Shinawatra administrations.Ms. Paetongtarn, who gave birth to a baby boy on May 1 before immediately returning to the campaign trail, is also facing stiff competition from Pita Limjaroenrat, a candidate with the progressive Move Forward Party. In one recent poll, Mr. Pita emerged as the top choice for prime minister.What does the electoral process look like?The prime minister is not selected through popular vote, but by the 500-member House of Representatives and the 250-member military-appointed Senate.In 2019, the Senate backed Mr. Prayuth unanimously and is likely to align itself with a military proxy candidate again. If it votes as a bloc, an opposition politician would need to cobble together a huge majority in the lower house — at least 376 votes — to lead the country.Already, Senator Wanchai Sornsiri has said he and a group of fellow senators “definitely would not choose” Ms. Paetongtarn as prime minister. But it remains unclear whom exactly the military would choose.The vote could be split.One major surprise this election was the separation of Mr. Prayuth from his comrade-in-arms, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Mr. Prayuth joined the United Thai Nation Party, which was established solely to field him as a candidate in the election. Mr. Prawit stayed with Palang Pracharath, Mr. Prayuth’s former party.Pheu Thai, the populist party of the former prime minister’s daughter, has been dogged by speculation that it could combine forces to form a coalition with the party of Mr. Prawit. He is widely considered one of the most powerful politicians in Thailand and was the previous army chief under Mr. Thaksin.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand, left, greeting Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan at Parliament in 2022.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressPheu Thai has consistently denied these rumors, but many skeptical Thais say they would vote for the progressive Move Forward Party to prevent such an outcome.What are the major issues?The Move Forward Party has proposed amending a strict law that forbids defaming, insulting or threatening the king and other members of the royal family in Thailand after the authorities charged more than 200 people for violating the law during mass pro-democracy protests in Bangkok in 2020.Conviction under the law, known as Article 112, carries a minimum sentence of three years and a maximum sentence of up to 15. It is the only crime in Thailand for which a minimum jail term is imposed.Bread-and-butter issues are also at the forefront of voters’ minds. Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, and the country reported the slowest economic growth last year among other major economies in Southeast Asia.This is why nearly every political party is relying on populist policies, such as cash handouts and subsidies, to lure voters.How does the military come into play?If history is any indicator, the military, which has dominated Thai politics for decades, is unlikely to relinquish power easily.In addition to engineering a dozen coups within a century, Thai generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would have the power to determine the country’s prime minister.Even if Mr. Prayuth loses the popular vote, he could still end up with the top job, leading a minority government.“When everything is so well planned, I don’t think we can be optimistic about change after this election,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.In 2020, the country’s Constitutional Court disbanded the Future Forward Party, the previous iteration of the Move Forward Party, after it unexpectedly finished third in the 2019 elections. Mr. Thaksin’s two previous political parties were also dissolved by military leaders. (Conservative officials have also threatened to disband the Move Forward Party this election.)Pita Limjaroenrat, the Move Forward Party’s candidate for prime minister, greeting his supporters at a rally in Bangkok in April.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesWanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said parties have to be wary of the junta’s “stealth authoritarianism” after the election. “This will be the great challenge for the new government,” he said. “Every step will be watched, will be under scrutiny.”Muktita Suhartono More

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      Thaksin Shinawatra’s Daughter Enters Thailand Election

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      An ousted populist’s daughter seeks office, fueling concerns that the return of a divisive political dynasty may revive instability, too.For close to two decades, the military and conservative establishment in Thailand has sought to keep former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters out of power. Mr. Thaksin, a populist politician and a business tycoon, was ousted in a coup in 2006 before he fled the country. Several years later, his sister succeeded him as prime minister and then suffered the same fate.Now, conservatives are watching warily as his political party looks set to dominate next month’s election. The party’s star campaigner: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter and a strong contender for prime minister.With a formidable last name but little in the way of political experience, Ms. Paetongtarn, 36, has revived the prospect of her father’s return from exile and the resurgence of the most politically polarizing dynasty in Thai politics. Critics have tried to seize on her family’s past scandals — and on her current pregnancy, eight months along — but she has galvanized crowds during campaign events and fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy.Ms. Paetongtarn’s rise has stirred concerns that if she were elected, Thailand might return to the political instability that characterized the terms of her father and aunt, both of whom faced opposition from the military. Questions have dogged her campaign: What are her credentials besides her family name? Would she prioritize ending her father’s exile?Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in Samut Prakan Province in April.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockJatuporn Prompan, a longtime ally of Mr. Thaksin’s, now estranged, said the candidacy of his daughter is a reflection of “how Mr. Thaksin thinks, that he doesn’t trust anyone but his family.”“She will face tremendous pressure from the opposition, be scrutinized and criticized,” Mr. Jatuporn said. “Mr. Thaksin shouldn’t do this to his children.”It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn, a deputy chief executive of a family-run hotel management company, will ultimately get the top job. Pheu Thai, the party founded by her father, has named two other candidates for prime minister in addition to her: a real estate mogul and a former attorney general.It is likely that the 250-member military-appointed Senate, which ultimately votes for the prime minister, would resist choosing the daughter of a longtime nemesis. She also faces a challenge from the Move Forward Party, a progressive party that has appealed to the young.But there is no disputing that Mr. Thaksin’s political brand continues to be a force to be reckoned with in Thailand, even 17 years after he went into exile abroad.Pheu Thai supporters at a rally in Bangkok this month. Ms. Paetongtarn has galvanized crowds and fueled nostalgia for her family’s legacy.Lauren DeCicca/Getty ImagesSince 2001, the political parties he founded have consistently won the most votes in every election. (Pheu Thai is the third incarnation of Mr. Thaksin’s party after the previous two were dissolved.) Many Thais still recall fondly his populist agenda, in particular his $1 health care program and the disbursement of loans to farmers when he was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.“The whole sense of caring for the poor and the downtrodden and the ability of Thaksin to communicate in a simple Thai language to the 47 million Thai people — the have-nots — there has not been any Thai politician that has been able to give an alternative,” said Kasit Piromya, a former foreign minister who later became an outspoken critic of Mr. Thaksin.But that same popularity made Mr. Thaksin, 73, a threat to the conservative establishment: a nexus of Thai royalists; the wealthy and the military; and the Thais who support them. His political rivals have consistently accused him of trying to overthrow the Thai monarchy.Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha — the general who seized power from Ms. Thaksin’s sister in a 2014 coup and has ruled the country since as a staunch royalist — walked out of a news conference in January when a reporter tried to ask him about the possibility of Mr. Thaksin’s return. “Don’t talk about that person,” he said. “I don’t like it.”Despite Mr. Thaksin’s political misfortunes, he remains one of Thailand’s wealthiest people, with a net worth in 2022 of about $2.1 billion.In a 2001 photo, Thaksin Shinawatra, then the newly elected prime minister, stands with his wife, Potjaman; son, Parntongtae; and daughters, Paetongtarn and Pintongta.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressMs. Paetongtarn has said there are “no plans” for her father, who lives mostly in Dubai, to return to Thailand, though Mr. Thaksin has said previously he would “definitely return” this year. Ms. Paetongtarn’s press team declined to make her available for an interview with The New York Times.Some Thais are frustrated that Mr. Thaksin’s possible return has once again become an election issue, for his popularity is not universal, particularly among younger voters.Accusations of corruption dogged Mr. Thaksin’s second term in office. In 2006, there were months of protests in Bangkok after reports that his family had netted $1.9 billion from the tax-free sale of their stake in Shin Corporation, a vast telecommunications conglomerate run by the family, to Singapore’s Temasek. The unrest culminated in a coup that year.In 2008, Mr. Thaksin fled to England, saying he could not get a fair trial on a series of corruption charges; he was later sentenced to a total of 12 years in prison.In 2013, Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, who had become prime minister in 2011, proposed an amnesty bill to pardon people who committed offenses during the turmoil after the 2006 coup. This triggered violent protests. After another coup in 2014, Ms. Yingluck fled Thailand in 2017, shortly before she was to appear in court on negligence charges over a rice subsidy scheme.Protesters in Bangkok in 2006 calling for Mr. Thaksin’s resignation over the family’s $1.9 billion tax-free sale of stock of the Thaksin-founded communications giant Shin Corp. to a Singapore company.Narong Sangnak/European Pressphoto AgencyThe country has become more polarized in the years since Mr. Thaksin and his sister left. The split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite remains. A new political divide has also emerged — one that runs along generational lines.In 2020, tens of thousands of mostly young protesters gathered in the streets of Bangkok, calling for democratic reform, and, most surprisingly, checks on the monarchy’s power, a previously taboo subject in a country where criticism of the institution can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence.Once a stable ally of the United States, Thailand has moved closer to China under the military junta that ousted the Shinawatras. The country reported the slowest economic growth in Southeast Asia last year compared with other major economies in the region. Many Thais blame Prime Minister Prayuth, who is trailing in the polls.Echoing Mr. Thaksin’s populist policies, Pheu Thai has pledged cash handouts and an increase in the minimum wage to $18 a day from the current average of $10.Known widely by her nickname, “Ung Ing,” Ms. Paetongtarn is the third child of Mr. Thaksin and Potjaman Na Pombejra, who divorced Mr. Thaksin in 2008. As a little girl, she shadowed her father while he campaigned and played golf. She graduated with a degree in political science from Chulalongkorn University and then studied international hotel management at the University of Surrey in England.In a 2022 television interview, Ms. Paetongtarn recalled the day the army launched the coup against her father, when she was 20. She was studying with a friend when her mother called and told her to come home: “The tanks are out.” “Confused, I thought to myself: ‘What is a tank?’” Ms. Paetongtarn recalled. She said she cried and feared for the safety of her family.“The country needs to move forward,” she said in the same television interview.Mr. Thaksin said his daughter was drafted into politics after people said, “they wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.” They had asked for a volunteer, “and Paetongtarn answered the call,” he told Nikkei Asia, a Japanese news outlet.The three candidates for prime minister from the Pheu Thai party, Srettha Thavisin, Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitsiri, at a rally in Bangkok this month.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesNattawut Saikua, director of the “Pheu Thai Family,” said he believes in Ms. Paetongtarn’s potential, citing her ability to galvanize crowds. “She will succeed” with the help of advisers, he said in an interview.It remains unclear if Ms. Paetongtarn’s campaign will resonate among Thai youths. Last month during a Pheu Thai rally, youth activists asked if Pheu Thai would amend the law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.Two activists present at the rally, Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong, said that the group asked Ms. Paetongtarn to mark on a board if she agreed that the law, known as Article 112, should be abolished. According to Ms. Tantawan and Ms. Orawan, Ms. Paetongtarn told the activists: “I don’t want to participate in this activity.”Then she walked away.Ryn Jirenuwat More

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      Junta Disbands Aung San Suu Kyi’s Political Party in Myanmar

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      The regime has dissolved dozens of opposition parties ahead of the next general election, including the popular National League for Democracy.The political party of Myanmar’s imprisoned opposition leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, has been officially dissolved, in yet another blow to the Southeast Asian nation’s democracy.The party, the National League for Democracy, was disbanded by Myanmar’s military-appointed election commission, state media said late Tuesday night. The announcement set the stage for an upcoming election that will almost certainly keep the junta in power for years to come.Before Tuesday’s announcement, the N.L.D. had already made it clear that it would not participate in the election, calling it a sham. When the party failed to register with the election commission, Myanmar’s state television said that the N.L.D. — as well as 39 other opposition parties — would be dissolved.U Kyaw Htwe, a spokesman for the N.L.D., said the party would continue its activities, despite the announcement from the election commission. “As Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said before, if there are people, the N.L.D. party will exist,” said U Tun Myint, another N.L.D. spokesman. “The N.L.D. is already in the hearts of the people.”Mr. Tun Myint said that the military has burned down over 200 N.L.D. offices, killed more than 90 party members and supporters and arrested more than 1,300 party members since the generals seized power in a coup two years ago.“There is nothing darker than midnight,” he said, using a Burmese phrase that means things are as bad as they can get.The N.L.D. clinched landslide victories in three previous elections. In the last election, held in November 2020, the party won 82 percent of the available seats in Parliament. But before the new Parliament could be sworn in on Feb. 1. 2021, the military staged its coup, detaining Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other top N.L.D. officials.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, 77, has since been given a 33-year prison sentence. The military regime accused her of a range of charges, including corruption and violating the Official Secrets Act. The United Nations and international human rights groups have condemned the prosecutions, calling them politically motivated with the intent of keeping Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi out of power.Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s former leader, in 2020. The country’s military leaders have long seen her as a threat to their power.Aung Shine Oo/Associated PressAfter the coup, N.L.D. leaders who escaped arrest — as well as politicians from other parties — formed a new government called the National Unity Government. The organization, which operates in exile and has not been recognized by any international body, has supported armed rebel groups engaged in violent clashes against the military.Battling against the People’s Defense Force, as the armed rebel groups are known, the military now struggles to control territory throughout the country.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has long been a thorn in the side of Myanmar’s generals, who see her overwhelming popularity as a threat to military power. She was previously kept under house arrest for nearly 15 years until 2010, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 in recognition of her struggle for democracy.Although Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is still revered by many in Myanmar, a large swath of the population is now looking beyond her for guidance. In the two years since the coup, a younger, more progressive — and confrontational — generation has emerged, reshaping politics and society.The junta initially said this year’s general election would be held by August, but in February it announced a six-month extension of the post-coup state of emergency, delaying the vote without providing a new date. Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the junta, said the military could not guarantee voters’ safety on election day because dozens of townships were not under military control.Fifty political parties have registered to contest the election, and 13 parties have applied to register, according to state media. The United Nations’ Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, has urged international organizations and election monitoring groups not to provide technical support in the election and to avoid lending legitimacy to the regime.“Instead, they should explicitly denounce what will be a farcical exercise designed to perpetuate military control of Myanmar’s political system,” Mr. Andrews said in a report. More

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      Biden’s Defense of Global Democracies Is Tested by Political Turmoil

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      The administration’s Summit for Democracy begins this week amid crises in several countries allied with the United States, including Israel.WASHINGTON — A political crisis in Israel and setbacks to democracy in several other major countries closely allied with the United States are testing the Biden administration’s defense of democracy against a global trend toward the authoritarianism of nations like Russia and China.President Biden will deliver remarks on Wednesday at the second White House-led Summit for Democracy, which Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken kicked off on Tuesday morning.The three-day, in-person and virtual event comes as Mr. Biden has boasted, more than once, that since he became president “democracies have become stronger, not weaker. Autocracies have grown weaker, not stronger.”Casting a cloud over the long-planned gathering is a move by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government to weaken the power of Israel’s judiciary, a plan that his opponents call an existential threat to the country’s 75-year democratic tradition.But that is only the most vivid sign of how autocratic practices are making inroads around the world.Proposed changes to Israel’s judiciary have starkly divided society and ignited huge protests this week.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesBiden administration officials are also warily eyeing countries like Mexico, which has moved to gut its election oversight body; India, where a top opposition political leader was disqualified last week from holding a post in Parliament; and Brazil, where the electoral defeat last year of the autocratic president, Jair Bolsonaro, was followed by a riot in January that his supporters orchestrated at government offices in Brasília, the capital.Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to postpone the proposed judicial changes under intense political pressure may slightly ease the awkwardness of Israel’s participation in the summit, where he is set to deliver prerecorded video remarks. Mexico, India and Brazil will also participate.Mr. Netanyahu’s retreat came after private admonitions from Biden officials that he was endangering Israel’s cherished reputation as a true democracy in the heart of the Middle East.In a briefing for reporters on Monday, John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, said that Mr. Biden had “strongly” urged Israel’s government to find a compromise to a judicial plan that has starkly divided society and ignited huge protests. Asked whether the White House might disinvite Israel from the summit, Mr. Kirby said only that Israel “has been invited.”But the larger troubles remain for Mr. Biden, who asserted in his State of the Union address last month that the United States had reach “an inflection point” in history and that during his presidency had begun to reverse a worldwide autocratic march.Democracy activists call that a debatable proposition, and U.S. officials acknowledge that the picture is nuanced at best.On the positive side of the ledger, U.S. officials and experts say, Mr. Biden has rallied much of the democratic world into a powerful coalition against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a speech during his visit to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, last month marking the anniversary of the invasion, Mr. Biden repeated his assertion about the growing strength of democracies against autocracies and said that the war had forced the United States and its allies to “stand up for democracy.”Damage in Siversk, Ukraine, this month. U.S. officials and experts say Mr. Biden has rallied much of the democratic world into a powerful coalition against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Tyler Hicks/The New York TimesMr. Biden has also rallied democratic nations to take firmer stands against Chinese influence around the world at a time when experts say Beijing is looking to export its model of governance.And some argue that Mr. Biden has been a savior of democracy by winning the 2020 presidential election — defeating President Donald J. Trump, a U.S. leader with authoritarian tendencies — and by containing for now Mr. Trump’s efforts to reject the results of that election and myriad other democratic norms.“Without suggesting that the fight has been won, or that Biden is doing everything right, I think we need to give him credit for helping to save American democracy and standing up to the great authoritarian powers,” said Tom Malinowski, a former Democratic congressman from New Jersey.But Mr. Biden’s claim that autocracies have grown weaker faces a stark reality in some nations.President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia may find himself economically isolated and militarily challenged in Ukraine. But he still has strong political support in Russia and has even consolidated power through a crackdown on dissent that has driven hundreds of thousands of Russians from the country.In Beijing, Xi Jinping was awarded a third five-year term this month not long after suppressing protests against his government’s coronavirus policies. In its latest official worldwide threat assessment, the U.S. intelligence community found that arms of the Chinese Communist Party “have become more aggressive with their influence campaigns” against the United States and other countries.President Xi Jinping of China was awarded a third five-year term this month not long after suppressing protests against his government’s coronavirus policies. Wu Hao/EPA, via ShutterstockBiden officials conceived a democracy summit during the 2020 campaign to address a belief that autocratic influence had been spreading for years, destabilizing and undermining Western governments. They also worried about a growing perception that political chaos and legislative paralysis in places like Washington and London — or in Israel, which held five elections in three years before Mr. Netanyahu narrowly managed to form his coalition — was creating a sense around the world that democracies could not deliver results for their people.Mr. Biden’s first Summit for Democracy, in December 2021, featured uplifting language from world leaders and group sessions on issues like media freedom and rule of law in which countries could trade best practices on strengthening their democracies and share advice on countering foreign efforts to manipulate politics and elections.The summit this week will include about 120 countries and will be hosted by Costa Rica, the Netherlands, South Korea and Zambia in addition to the United States.Recent democratic trends can be described as mixed at best. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual democracy index found last year that in 2021, the first year of Mr. Biden’s presidency, “global democracy continued its precipitous decline.” More recently, the same survey found that in 2022, democracy had “stagnated.”Mr. Biden hosted a Summit for Democracy from the White House in 2021.Doug Mills/The New York TimesSimilarly, a report released this month by Freedom House, a nonprofit group that monitors democracy, human rights and civil liberties around the world, found that global freedom had slipped for the 17th year in a row, by its measurement. But the group also reported that the steady decline might have plateaued and that there were just slightly more countries showing a decrease in freedoms compared with those whose records were improving.“This seems like a critical moment,” said Yana Gorokhovskaia, an author of the Freedom House report. “The spread of decline is clearly slowing. It hasn’t stopped.”That has been clear in some countries. Last month, Mexican lawmakers passed sweeping legislation hobbling the election oversight body that is widely credited with steering the country from decades of one-party rule. Critics say the country’s populist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has shown some troubling autocratic tendencies.In India, opponents of the country’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, have complained for years that he is weakening the democratic tradition of the world’s second-largest country by population by cracking down on critics and religious minorities. The concerns reached a new level with the expulsion from Parliament of Rahul Ghandi, a prominent opponent of Mr. Modi’s, a day after a court found him guilty of criminal defamation for a line in a campaign speech in 2019 in which he likened Mr. Modi to two thieves with the same name.And after supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro — who blamed electoral fraud for his narrow defeat in December — stormed government buildings in Brazil’s capital, Mr. Biden condemned “the assault on democracy.”Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil stormed government buildings in Brasília, the capital, in January.ReutersDemocratic setbacks have also occurred in West Africa, where there have been coups in Mali and Burkina Faso in recent years. In Nigeria, a country of 220 million people, experts say that the presidential election in February appeared suspect.In Europe, thousands of people in the Republic of Georgia have taken to the streets to protest a measure that would curb what the government calls “foreign agents,” but which activists say is an effort to crack down on nongovernmental organizations and news media groups. The State Department called a March 7 parliamentary vote approving the measure “a dark day” for democracy in Georgia, which U.S. officials have tried to support against the influences of Russia, its neighbor.The tumult over Israel’s democracy has been particularly shocking to U.S. officials and experts who have long seen the country as a paragon of democratic values and an especially bright example in a region long plagued by dictatorship.And the summit this week will notably exclude two members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Hungary and Turkey, whose autocratic political systems have grown no less repressive during Mr. Biden’s tenure.Still, some people who track democratic trends say they are optimistic.“Perhaps the most striking indication of democracy’s forward movement over the last two years has been the election of President Biden, and the election of President Lula in Brazil,” said Sarah Margon, the director of foreign policy at Open Society-U.S.Those events “sent a critical message to people who are looking to defeat autocrats or leaders with autocratic tendencies,” added Ms. Margon, whom Mr. Biden nominated last year to the State Department’s top position for human rights and democracy. (Her nomination expired after Republican opposition and was not renewed in January.)But many world leaders profess to be unmoved by critiques from democracy advocates, especially from U.S. officials.“If they want to have a debate on this issue, let’s do it,” Mr. López Obrador said last month. “I have evidence to prove there is more liberty and democracy in our country.” More

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      Aung San Suu Kyi Gets 33 Years in Prison in Myanmar

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      Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has faced a series of charges since being detained in a coup in early 2021. Her trials came to an end on Friday, capping months of legal proceedings.Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s ousted civilian leader, was found guilty of corruption on Friday and sentenced to seven years in prison, almost two years after she was first detained by the military in a coup.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, 77, a Nobel laureate, had already begun serving a 26-year prison sentence in connection with more than a dozen charges she has faced since being detained. The additional sentence she received on Friday makes it likely that she will remain behind bars for the rest of her life, unless the junta reduces her sentence to house arrest, overturns its own ruling, or falls from power. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s lawyers plan to appeal, according to a source familiar with the proceedings.Friday’s verdict, delivered in a courtroom that sits inside a prison in the capital, Naypyidaw, was expected to draw international condemnation.“The verdicts were unsurprising — this was purely a show trial,” said Richard Horsey, a senior adviser on Myanmar for the International Crisis Group. “As with the coup itself, the regime’s objective has been to silence Aung San Suu Kyi and remove her from the political landscape.”There is widespread speculation in Myanmar that the junta wanted to finish Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s trials by the end of the year so that it could focus on another goal: installing Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the military leader behind last year’s coup, as president when the country holds its next general election in mid-2023. A shadow government established by ousted civilian leaders after the February 2021 coup is immensely popular but has been unable to compete politically against the military or to gain international recognition. General Min Aung Hlaing’s military-backed party is almost certain to win the next election.Myanmar has been racked by violence since the coup. Protests erupted across the country as the junta’s opponents mounted a civil disobedience movement and national strike. The military responded with brutal force, shooting and killing protesters in the streets. Thousands of armed resistance fighters have continued to battle the Tatmadaw, as the army in Myanmar is known, using guerrilla tactics and training in the jungle.A protester with an image of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in Yangon, Myanmar, weeks after the military coup in February 2021.The New York TimesLast week, the United Nations’ Security Council adopted a resolution condemning the junta’s rights abuses in the aftermath of the coup and demanding the release of political prisoners. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is one of more than 16,000 people who have been arrested since the coup for opposing military rule, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The group says more than 13,000 of them are still detained.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has been charged with a series of crimes by the junta, including corruption, election fraud, inciting public unrest and breaching Covid-19 protocols. A number of other government leaders have also stood trial in recent months, and the regime has executed some pro-democracy activists as it continues to crack down on opponents.The military-controlled Election Commission first brought election fraud charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi in November 2021, about a year after her political party won in a landslide. During that trial, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior government officials were accused of manipulating voter lists to secure their victory over the military-backed party. She has denied all of the charges against her.Friday’s sentencing pertained to a set of charges separate from the election-fraud case. She was found guilty of five counts of corruption that caused a loss of state funds. Prosecutors had argued that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi did not follow the proper protocols when she rented one helicopter and bought a second, sometime between 2019 and 2021.While the junta has insisted that the charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi are not politically motivated, the military has long considered her a threat and sought to minimize her influence in Myanmar, said U Kyee Myint, a human rights lawyer in Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city.A United Nations Security Council meeting this month in New York during a vote on a draft resolution calling for an immediate end to violence in Myanmar and the release of political prisoners.Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“As long as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in politics, the military will never win,” Mr. Kyee Myint said. “That’s why long-term prison terms are imposed — to remove Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence in politics.”Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is the daughter of Gen. Aung San, the country’s independence hero, who was assassinated when she was 2 years old. As an adult, she was one of many people who spent years in jail for their political opposition to the military junta that seized power in 1962 and ruled the country for decades.In 1991, she won a Nobel Peace Prize for her nonviolent resistance to the generals who had locked her up, turning her into an icon for global democracy. She eventually began a power-sharing arrangement with the military when her party, the National League for Democracy, won its first landslide election victory in 2015. Because the country’s military-drafted Constitution bars her from the presidency, she named herself foreign minister and state counselor, positions that gave her broad executive authority.By the time she was detained in 2021, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi had lost some of her luster, in large part because she had downplayed the army’s murderous campaign against Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslim minority, who have been forced to flee the country by the hundreds of thousands. But Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi still has legions of devoted followers in a country now ruled by General Min Aung Hlaing.“I think Min Aung Hlaing wanted Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to suffer and die in prison, so he sentenced her to a long prison term,” said Daw Nge Nge Lwin, the owner of a gas station in Yangon and the aunt of a student activist who has been detained at the city’s notorious Insein prison. “But Daw Aung San Suu Kyi ruled the country with love and is loved by the people. I don’t think she’s someone who will die, depressed, in prison.”Renaud Egreteau, an expert on civil-military relations in Myanmar and a professor at the City University of Hong Kong, said that he expected her reputation to endure for years among her followers.Just as protesters carried banners featuring images of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s father decades after his assassination, he said, “We can assume that her own portrait will continue to be used as a call to collective action and protest against those holding illegitimate power, regardless of her own action.”“She is still the matriarchal figure that invokes resistance against the army,” Professor Egreteau added. “I doubt a farcical trial can change that.”People protesting as security forces blocked off the parimeter around NLD headquarters, in Yangon, Myanmar, in February.The New York TimesSince being detained in 2021, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has been allowed to speak only with her lawyers. They have been banned from speaking to the news media during the trials. Earlier this year, the country’s military-backed Supreme Court announced that it would auction off the residence where she spent nearly 15 years under house arrest during the previous military regime.“A time may come when the military sees advantages in allowing Suu Kyi to move to some form of house arrest, or even grant access to her for international envoys,” Mr. Horsey said. “But that time is not now, and the decision may fall to a postelection, military administration.” More

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      Aung San Suu Kyi Trial in Myanmar Nears End

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      The prosecution of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has drawn international condemnation. The latest set of corruption charges could put her in prison for the rest of her life.Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s ousted civilian leader, is expected to appear in court on Friday to receive the last of several verdicts handed down to her by the military regime, capping off a secretive 13 months of trial proceedings during which the 77-year-old Nobel laureate has already been sentenced to decades in prison.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was detained in a coup in February 2021. Since that time, the junta has charged her with a series of crimes, including corruption, election fraud, inciting public unrest and breaching Covid-19 protocols. Friday’s verdict stemmed from a set of corruption charges related to what prosecutors argue was Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s improper purchase of one helicopter and rental of another.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party won the November 2020 election in a landslide. Independent international observers declared the results free and fair. But less than three months after her election victory, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was detained by the military, a move that has drawn international condemnation.Since the military seized power on Feb. 1, 2021, Myanmar has been racked by violence. Protests erupted across the country as the junta’s opponents mounted a civil disobedience movement and national strike. The military responded with brutal force, shooting and killing protesters in the streets. Thousands of armed resistance fighters have continued to battle the Tatmadaw, as the army in Myanmar is known, using guerrilla tactics and training in the jungle.Last week, the United Nation’s Security Council adopted a resolution condemning the junta’s rights abuses in the aftermath of the coup.The military-controlled Election Commission first brought election fraud charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi in November 2021. During that trial, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior government officials were accused of manipulating voter lists to secure their victory over the military-backed party.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has denied all of the charges against her. The United Nations and other international organizations have demanded her freedom, though the junta has insisted that the charges are not politically motivated and has refused to let Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi speak with global leaders who have visited Myanmar in recent months.By Friday, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi had already begun serving a 26-year prison sentence in connection with more than a dozen charges she has faced since the coup. In the most recent case, prosecutors argued that an investigation found Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi did not follow the proper protocols when she rented one helicopter and bought a second, some time between 2019 and 2021.The latest verdicts come as the military seeks to minimize Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence in Myanmar, said U Kyee Myint, a human rights lawyer based in Yangon, Myanmar. Despite the regime’s efforts, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is still revered by many in the country.“As long as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in politics, the military will never win,” Mr. Kyee Myint said. “That’s why long-term prison terms are imposed — to remove Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence in politics.”Earlier this year, the country’s military-backed Supreme Court announced that it would auction off Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s residence, where she spent nearly 15 years under house arrest during a previous military regime. Since being detained in 2021, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has been allowed to speak only with her lawyers. They have been banned from speaking to the news media during the trials. More