Coups D’Etat and Attempted Coups D’Etat

Subterms

    More stories

    • 75 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Your Monday Briefing: Indonesia’s Stadium Tragedy

      by

      Plus Brazil votes in national elections and China wrestles with Covid fatigue.Soccer fans carried an injured man away from the stadium.Yudha Prabowo/Associated PressAn Indonesian stadium tragedyAt least 125 people died when soccer fans rushed the field after a professional soccer match in Malang, Indonesia, on Saturday. Many were trampled.The police fired tear gas into the tightly packed crowds, leading to a stampede. Survivors said that the gas was fired indiscriminately into the stands, forcing the overcapacity crowd to rush for the exits. Many are angry at the police response, which observers said had made the situation worse.“If there wasn’t any tear gas shot into the stands, there would have not been any casualties,” one man said, adding that people had “panicked” and rushed to the field to save themselves. When he tries to sleep, he said, he still hears people screaming.Reaction: Rights organizations condemned the use of tear gas, which is prohibited by FIFA, soccer’s global governing body. One policing expert said that using tear gas, which is designed to disperse crowds, in secure areas where people have nowhere to go is “incredibly, incredibly dangerous.”Analysis: The combination of large crowds and aggressive policing can prove disastrous, writes Rory Smith, my colleague who covers soccer, in an analysis. When tragedies occur, he writes, “they tend to be the consequence not of fan violence but of failures of policing, security and crowd management.”Background: Soccer violence has long been a problem for Indonesia, where violent rivalries between major teams are common. Worldwide, Saturday’s match was among the deadliest episodes in the history of the sport. After a decade of overlapping crises, Brazilians lined up to cast votes yesterday. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBrazil votes in national electionsBrazilians cast votes yesterday in the country’s most consequential election in decades. Here are live updates.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president once imprisoned amid a corruption scandal, is seeking to oust Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right populist president who has questioned the election’s integrity and has long trailed in the polls. (It’s basically a two-man race, although nine other people are on the ballot.) The State of the WarAnnexation Push: After Moscow’s proxies conducted a series of sham referendums in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, President Vladimir V. Putin declared the four territories to be part of Russia. Western leaders, including President Biden in the United States, denounced the annexation as illegal.Retreat From Key City: Russian forces withdrew from the strategically important city of Lyman, in Donetsk Province, on Oct. 1. The retreat was a significant setback for Moscow, coming just a day after Mr. Putin declared the region to be Russian territory.U.S. Military Aid: The Pentagon seems to be preparing to overhaul how the United States and its allies train and equip the Ukrainian military, reflecting what officials say is the Biden administration’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine in the war.Russia’s Draft: The Kremlin has acknowledged that its new military draft is rife with problems, as protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have left the country.The next president will face an economic crisis, surging Amazon deforestation and lingering questions over the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies. An alarming question now hangs over the vote: Will Bolsonaro accept the results?Context: Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the security of Brazil’s electronic voting system for months. On the eve of the election, his party did so again. He has, in effect, said that the only way he would lose is if the election were stolen from him.Climate: The future of the Amazon rainforest may be at stake. Deforestation of the world’s largest rainforest has hit 15-year highs under Bolsonaro, who has weakened environmental protections and wants the rainforest opened up to mining, ranching and agriculture.Pakistani farmers tried to salvage what is left from a cotton field.Kiana Hayeri for The New York TimesPakistan’s floods worsen debtsPakistan’s recent, record-shattering floods have submerged its fields and its small farmers deeper into debt with their landlords.Many are in sharecropping arrangements and already owed hundreds or thousands of dollars. Landlords offer farmers loans to buy seeds and fertilizer each planting season. In exchange, farmers cultivate their fields and earn a small cut of the harvest, a portion of which goes toward repaying the loan.Now, their summer harvests are in ruins. Unless the water recedes, they will not be able to plant the wheat they harvest each spring. Even if they can, the land is certain to produce less after being damaged by the floodwaters.Details: One 14-year-old recently waded through waist-deep water filled with snakes to pick cotton. “It was our only source of livelihood,” she said. In the hardest-hit regions, where the floods drowned villages, authorities warn that the waters may not fully recede for months.Analysis: As extreme weather events become increasingly common, the cycle is worsening. Pakistan’s floods were especially cataclysmic because of a combination of heavy glacier melt and record monsoon rains, which scientists say were both intensified by climate change.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificLiu Jingyao filed a civil suit against Richard Liu. Lawyers said the parties had agreed to “set aside their differences” in order to avoid further pain and suffering. Caroline Yang for The New York TimesRichard Liu, a Chinese billionaire, reached a settlement with Liu Jingyao, a former University of Minnesota student who had accused him of rape. The case has been seen as a landmark in China’s struggling #MeToo movement.North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the ocean on Saturday, the country’s fourth test since Sunday of last week.Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled on Friday that Prayuth Chan-ocha, the prime minister who took control in a 2014 coup, can stay in power. The decision is expected to revive the pro-democracy protests that rocked Bangkok in 2020.A suicide attack in Kabul on Friday killed at least 19 people, mostly young female students. The U.S. and 14 Pacific Island nations signed a broad partnership agreement last week designed to counter China.The War in UkraineHere are live updates.Russian forces retreated from Lyman, a key Ukrainian city, one day after Vladimir Putin illegally declared control of the Donbas region. The loss further imperils the Kremlin’s grip on Donbas.Pope Francis appealed yesterday to Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to end the war.Ukraine applied to join NATO. Yesterday, nine European leaders expressed support for the bid, which is likely to face hurdles.Each day, about 10,000 Russian men are trying to cross into Georgia to flee draft orders. “I do not support the war, and I do not want to go kill Ukrainians,” one said.World NewsDamage from Hurricane Ian in Florida.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesThe death toll in Florida from Hurricane Ian grew to about 80. Burkina Faso has weathered its second coup in ten months. Yesterday, the army officer who seized power in January conceded that he too had been ousted by mutinying soldiers.Uganda is racing to control a deadly Ebola outbreak.Venezuela and Iran released American prisoners over the weekend.What Else Is HappeningIran’s long economic decline is fueling a widespread protest movement, which continues despite heavy crackdowns.Nick Kyrgios, the Australian tennis star, is set to face a charge of assaulting a former girlfriend.“Saturday Night Live” kicked off its new season. Eight veteran cast members have left the show this year.A Morning ReadA line at a Covid testing site in Beijing in June.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesMy colleague Vivian Wang, a Times correspondent in China, described the grinding reality of life under Covid. People schedule lunch breaks around completing mandatory tests and buy second freezers to stock up on groceries for future lockdowns.“The disruptive becomes typical; the once-unimaginable, reality,” she writes.ARTS AND IDEASAsia beckons againSeveral Asian destinations are loosening their Covid restrictions on international travel. Our Travel desk looked at how four destinations were preparing for the return of tourism.Kyoto, one of Japan’s most-visited cities, wants to bring back tourists but avoid Instagram-driven excesses. (“Kyoto isn’t a tourist city, it’s a city that values tourism,” the mayor said.) Koh Tao, a Thai island, is trying to balance tourism with an environmental focus. On the edge of Delhi, a contemporary art scene and a burgeoning cosmopolitan class are taking shape. And rural South Korea offers serene, unhurried nature.The Travel desk also asked five photographers who live in Asia to share their favorite foods from India, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. And they offer advice on budget travel, translation apps and some great new hotels.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChris Simpson for The New York TimesMini bibingkas — Filipino coconut cakes — are fluffy and perfect for sharing, Ligaya Mishan writes.What to ReadRead your way through Rome.What to WatchIn “Bros,” a gay romantic comedy, a man who has sworn off relationships finds himself falling in love.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: In the know (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. I am now officially the lead writer of this newsletter! If you have feedback or suggestions, I’d welcome them. Please write to me: amelia.nierenberg@nytimes.com.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Hurricane Ian.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

    • 138 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Bolsonaro podría ser derrotado. Y parece demasiado bueno para ser verdad

      by

      SÃO PAULO, Brasil — “Si Dios quiere, seguiré”, dijo Jair Bolsonaro a mediados de septiembre. “Si no, me quitaré la banda presidencial y me retiraré”.Parece demasiado bueno para ser verdad. Después de todo, Bolsonaro ha pasado buena parte de este año sembrando dudas sobre el proceso electoral y al parecer preparando el terreno para rechazar los resultados. El ejército, de manera ominosa, quiere llevar a cabo un recuento paralelo de los votos. La amenaza se respira en el aire: el 67 por ciento de los brasileños temen que haya violencia política y puede que algunos no se arriesguen a ir a votar (algo muy importante en un país donde es obligatorio votar). Todo el mundo habla de un posible golpe de Estado.En medio de esta incertidumbre, hay un hecho al cual aferrarse: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, el expresidente de izquierda, encabeza las encuestas, con un 50 por ciento de intención de voto en comparación con el 36 por ciento de Bolsonaro. Cuatro años después de que fue expulsado de la escena política, con acusaciones de corrupción y lavado de dinero, que luego se demostró que, en el mejor de los casos, fueron dudosas desde el punto de vista procesal y, en el peor, que tuvieron motivaciones políticas, Da Silva está de vuelta para terminar el trabajo. Teniendo en cuenta las pruebas disponibles, todo parece indicar que ganará: si no el mismo domingo, con más del 50 por ciento de los votos, entonces en la segunda vuelta electoral, el 30 de octubre.Los brasileños estamos conteniendo el aliento. Las próximas semanas podrían poner fin a una época sombría, liderada por uno de los peores mandatarios de nuestra historia, o podrían llevarnos aún más a la catástrofe y la desesperación. Hay mucho que digerir. En lo personal, decidí pasar más tiempo durmiendo y limpiando la casa, mis cortinas nunca se habían visto tan blancas (originalmente eran color crema). Sin embargo, sin importar lo mucho que me distraiga, nada alivia mi aprehensión de que las cosas puedan salir terriblemente mal.En apariencia, todo parece estar en calma. Un extranjero que camine por las calles no sentiría que estamos a punto de celebrar elecciones presidenciales. Al mirar por la ventana, observo que las banderas brasileñas —que han llegado a representar el apoyo a Bolsonaro— han sido retiradas de las fachadas vecinas. Una señal ambigua: podría ser una respuesta anticipada a la derrota o la calma antes de la tormenta. Ni siquiera entre amigos y familiares se habla mucho sobre las elecciones; las líneas se trazaron en 2018 y no se han movido gran cosa desde entonces.Sin embargo, a pesar de toda la polarización social, sigue habiendo aquí un enorme apoyo a la democracia: el 75 por ciento de los ciudadanos piensa que es mejor que cualquier otra forma de gobierno. Desde el principio, Da Silva ha intentado explotar ese sentimiento común y abrir un amplio frente contra Bolsonaro. Escogió a un antiguo adversario de centroderecha, Geraldo Alckmin, como su compañero de fórmula; se acercó con insistencia a los líderes empresariales y se aseguró de contar con el apoyo de figuras importantes de centro. En este ambiente de camaradería, los partidarios del candidato de centroizquierda, Ciro Gomes, que en estos momentos tiene alrededor de un 6 por ciento del voto en las encuestas, podrían incluso dar su voto al expresidente. Si eso ocurre, es casi seguro que Bolsonaro pierda las elecciones.Esa gloriosa posibilidad no ayuda a disipar la ansiedad que envuelve al país. Es físicamente imposible no obsesionarse con lo que podría suceder. Las posibilidades son aterradoras: las encuestas podrían equivocarse y Bolsonaro podría ganar. Las encuestas podrían estar en lo cierto y Bolsonaro podría negarse a aceptar la derrota e incluso dar un golpe de Estado. Cada día parece tener la duración de un día en Venus —de alrededor de 5832 horas— a juzgar por la agitación de mi feed de Twitter.Sencillamente, hay demasiado en juego. Por un lado, el proceso democrático mismo, que el propio presidente ha puesto en entredicho. Por otro, está el futuro de nuestro poder judicial. El año próximo, habrá dos lugares vacantes en el Supremo Tribunal Federal, de un total de 11 magistraturas. Si Bolsonaro se mantiene en el poder seguramente aprovechará la oportunidad de elegir a jueces de extrema derecha como lo hizo con sus dos últimos nombramientos. Estaríamos ante una reconfiguración del poder judicial al estilo de Trump.Luego, está la cuestión del medioambiente. En lo que va del año, se han registrado más incendios forestales en la Amazonía brasileña que en todo 2021, que fue de por sí bastante catastrófico. Desde comienzos de septiembre, densas columnas de humo cubren varios estados del país. Durante la presidencia de Bolsonaro, la deforestación ha aumentado, las agencias ambientales han sido desmanteladas y las muertes de indígenas se han incrementado. Revertir estas políticas ambientales desastrosas no podría ser más urgente.Además, un nuevo gobierno podría cambiar el fatídico destino de 33 millones de personas que viven en un estado de privación de alimentos y hambruna, por no hablar de los 62,9 millones de personas (o un 29 por ciento de la población) que vive por debajo de la línea de la pobreza. También podría disminuir la cantidad de armas de fuego en nuestras calles, que, con Bolsonaro, ha alcanzado la preocupante cifra de 1,9 millones. Y, por último, los brasileños podrían comenzar a sanar el trauma de las 685.000 muertes por COVID-19.Pero antes de todo eso, hay un primer paso necesario: obligar a Jair Bolsonaro a salir. Luego, podremos volver a respirar tranquilos.Vanessa Barbara es editora del sitio web literario A Hortaliça, autora de dos novelas y dos libros de no ficción en portugués y colaboradora de la sección de Opinión del Times. More

    • 125 Shares119 Views

      in Elections

      If Bolsonaro Loses Brazil’s Election, Will He Respect the Result?

      by

      SÃO PAULO, Brazil — “If it’s God’s will, I will continue,” Jair Bolsonaro said in mid-September. “If it’s not, I’ll take off the presidential sash and I will retire.”It feels too good to be true. After all, Mr. Bolsonaro has spent much of the year casting doubt on the electoral process and seemingly preparing the ground to reject the results. The military, ominously, wants to conduct a parallel counting of the votes. Menace hangs in the air: 67 percent of Brazilians fear political violence, and some may not risk voting at all (a big deal in a country where voting is mandatory). Talk of a coup is everywhere.Amid this uncertainty, there’s one fact to cling to: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s leftist former president, leads in the polls, with 50 percent of intended votes to Mr. Bolsonaro’s 36 percent. Four years after he was expelled from the political scene, on corruption and money laundering charges later shown to be at best procedurally dubious and at worst politically motivated, Mr. da Silva is back to complete the job. On all available evidence, he is poised to win: if not outright on Sunday, by taking more than 50 percent, then on the election’s second round, on Oct. 30.We Brazilians are holding our breath. The next few weeks could end a dark period, overseen by one of the worst leaders in our history, or they could usher us even further into catastrophe and despair. It’s all a bit much to take in. I’ve personally decided to spend more time sleeping and cleaning the house — the drapes have never been so white (they were originally beige). Yet no matter how much I distract myself, nothing can relieve me from the apprehension that something may go terribly wrong.On the surface, things seem calm. An outsider walking through the streets would not get the impression that a presidential election is about to be held. Looking out the window, I notice that the Brazilian flags — which have come to represent support for Mr. Bolsonaro — have been removed from the neighboring facades. An ambiguous sign: It could be a pre-emptive response to defeat, or the calm before the storm. There’s not even much talk among friends and family concerning the election; the lines were drawn in 2018 and have not moved much since then.Yet for all the social polarization, there is still enormous support for democracy here: 75 percent of citizens think it is better than any other form of government. Right from the beginning, Mr. da Silva has been trying to exploit that common feeling and open up a broad front against Mr. Bolsonaro. He picked a former adversary from the center-right, Geraldo Alckmin, as his running mate; assiduously courted business leaders; and secured endorsements from prominent centrists. In this comradely atmosphere, supporters of the center-left candidate, Ciro Gomes, currently about 6 percent in polls, may even throw their votes behind the former president. If that happens, Mr. Bolsonaro will surely be beaten.That glorious prospect does little to dispel the anxiety enveloping the country. It’s physically impossible not to dwell on what might happen. The possibilities are terrifying: The polls might be wrong, and Mr. Bolsonaro could win. The polls might be right, and Mr. Bolsonaro could refuse to concede defeat, and even initiate a coup. Each day now seems to be the length of a day on Venus — around 5,832 hours — to go by the agitation of my Twitter feed.There’s simply too much at stake. For one, there’s the democratic process itself, which has been put through the wringer by Mr. Bolsonaro. For another, there’s the future of our judiciary. Just next year, there will be two vacant seats on the Supreme Court, out of a total of 11 seats. If in power, Mr. Bolsonaro would surely seize the chance to make pick hard-right justices as he did with his last two appointees. A Trump-style remaking of the judiciary could be coming down the line.Then there’s the environment. So far this year, more forest fires have been recorded in the Brazilian Amazon than in all of 2021, which was already catastrophic enough. Since the start of September, dense plumes of smoke have covered several Brazilian states. Under Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration, deforestation has increased, environmental agencies have been dismantled and Indigenous deaths have risen. Reversing these disastrous environmental policies could not be more urgent.What’s more, a new government could address the appalling fate of the 33 million people living in a state of food deprivation and hunger — to say nothing of the 62.9 million people (or 29 percent of the population) living below the poverty line. It could also draw down the number of firearms on our streets, which, under Mr. Bolsonaro’s watch, has reached the troublingly high figure of 1.9 million. And, at last, Brazilians might begin to heal from the trauma of 685,000 Covid-19 deaths.But before all that, there’s a necessary first step: pushing Jair Bolsonaro into retirement. Then we can begin to breathe again.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

    • 75 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      Os brasileiros estão prendendo a respiração

      by

      SÃO PAULO, Brasil — “Se essa for a vontade de Deus, eu continuo”, disse Jair Bolsonaro em meados de setembro. “Se não for, a gente passa a faixa e eu vou me recolher.”Parece bom demais para ser verdade. Afinal, Bolsonaro passou boa parte do ano lançando dúvidas sobre o processo eleitoral e aparentemente preparando o terreno para rejeitar o resultado. Os militares, de forma alarmante, querem conduzir uma contagem paralela dos votos. A ameaça paira no ar: 67% dos brasileiros temem a violência política, e alguns até podem nem se arriscar a ir votar (uma questão importante em um país onde o voto é obrigatório). Rumores de golpe estão por toda parte.Em meio a essa incerteza, há um fato em que se agarrar: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, o ex-presidente brasileiro de esquerda, lidera as pesquisas, com 50% das intenções de votos válidos contra 36% para Bolsonaro. Quatro anos depois que ele foi afastado da cena política após acusações de corrupção e lavagem de dinheiro, acusações que posteriormente se revelaram, na melhor das hipóteses, procedimentalmente duvidosas e, na pior, politicamente motivadas, Lula está de volta para concluir o trabalho. A julgar pelas evidências disponíveis, ele está prestes a vencer: se não diretamente no domingo, obtendo mais de 50% dos votos válidos, então no segundo turno, no dia 30 de outubro.Nós, brasileiros, estamos prendendo a respiração. As próximas semanas podem encerrar um período tétrico, conduzido por um dos piores líderes da nossa história, ou podem nos afundar ainda mais na catástrofe e no desespero. Tudo isso me parece um pouco demais para absorver. Eu pessoalmente decidi passar mais tempo dormindo e limpando a casa — as cortinas nunca foram tão brancas. (E são originalmente beges.) E ainda assim, não importa o quanto eu tente me distrair, nada é capaz de atenuar o meu temor de que algo pode dar terrivelmente errado.Na superfície, as coisas parecem estar calmas. Um forasteiro andando pelas ruas não teria a impressão de que uma eleição presidencial está prestes a acontecer. Olhando pela janela, percebo que as bandeiras do Brasil — que acabaram por representar um apoio a Bolsonaro — foram retiradas das fachadas dos vizinhos. Um sinal ambíguo: pode ter sido uma reação preventiva à derrota ou a calmaria antes da tempestade. Não há muita conversa entre amigos e familiares sobre as eleições; as linhas foram demarcadas em 2018 e não se moveram muito desde então.E a despeito de toda a polarização social, ainda há um enorme apoio à democracia por aqui: 75% dos cidadãos acham que ela é melhor do que qualquer outra forma de governo. Desde o início, Lula tentou explorar esse sentimento comum e abrir uma frente ampla contra Bolsonaro. Ele escolheu um antigo adversário da centro-direita, Geraldo Alckmin, como seu vice-presidente; cortejou assiduamente empresários; e assegurou o apoio de centristas proeminentes. Nessa atmosfera amistosa, apoiadores do candidato de centro-esquerda Ciro Gomes, que tem atualmente cerca de 6% nas pesquisas, podem até dar seus votos para o ex-presidente. Se isso ocorrer, Bolsonaro certamente será derrotado.Essa gloriosa perspectiva faz pouco para dissipar a ansiedade que envolve o país. É fisicamente impossível não se deter no que pode acontecer. As possibilidades são aterrorizantes: as pesquisas podem estar erradas e Bolsonaro pode vencer. As pesquisas podem estar certas e Bolsonaro pode recusar-se a conceder a derrota, e até mesmo iniciar um golpe. Cada dia agora parece ter a duração de um dia em Vênus — em torno de 5.832 horas — a julgar pela agitação no meu feed do Twitter.Há simplesmente muita coisa em jogo. De um lado, há o processo democrático em si, que tem sido posto à prova por Bolsonaro. De outro, há o futuro do nosso Judiciário. Só no próximo ano, teremos duas cadeiras vagas no Supremo Tribunal Federal, de um total de onze. Se estiver no poder, Bolsonaro certamente aproveitará a chance para escolher ministros da linha-dura conservadora, como fez com suas duas últimas indicações. Uma remodelagem do Judiciário à moda de Trump pode estar a caminho.E há o meio ambiente. Até o momento, este ano, mais incêndios florestais foram registrados na Amazônia brasileira do que em todo o ano de 2021, que já tinha sido catastrófico. Desde o início de setembro, nuvens densas de fumaça cobriram inúmeros estados brasileiros. Sob a administração de Bolsonaro, o desmatamento cresceu, as agências regulatórias foram desmanteladas e as mortes de indígenas aumentaram. Reverter essas desastrosas políticas ambientais não poderia ser mais urgente.Além disso, um novo governo poderia enfrentar o terrível destino das 33 milhões de pessoas vivendo em um estado de fome e insegurança alimentar — isso para não mencionar os 62,9 milhões de pessoas (ou 29% da população) que se encontram abaixo da linha da pobreza. Também poderia reduzir a quantidade de armas de fogo em circulação, que, sob os auspícios de Bolsonaro, atingiu a cifra perturbadora de 1,9 milhão. Por último, os brasileiros talvez comecem a se recuperar do trauma de 685 mil mortes por Covid-19.Mas, antes de tudo isso, há um necessário primeiro passo: conduzir Jair Bolsonaro à aposentadoria. Então nós poderemos começar a respirar de novo.Vanessa Barbara é a editora do sítio literário A Hortaliça, autora de dois romances e dois livros de não-ficção em português, e escritora de opinião do The New York Times. More

    • 163 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      ¿La policía de Brasil apoyaría un golpe de Estado a favor de Bolsonaro?

      by

      Si las elecciones del domingo provocan disturbios masivos, se llamaría a la policía militar del país a restaurar el orden, dándole un tremendo poder para incidir en los resultados.El domingo, los brasileños acuden a las urnas para elegir a su próximo presidente. Pero desde hace meses, la cuestión que se plantea en el país no es quién ganará, sino si Jair Bolsonaro, el actual líder del país, intentará dar un golpe de Estado si pierde.Bolsonaro, quien va a rezagado en las encuestas, ha hecho todo lo posible por sembrar dudas sobre la validez de las elecciones brasileñas, al afirmar, por ejemplo, que las máquinas de votación electrónica del país serán manipuladas para inclinar el voto a favor de su oponente de izquierda, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.A pesar de las relaciones amistosas de Bolsonaro con los militares, parece carecer del apoyo institucional que necesitaría para dar un golpe de Estado exitoso. Y si pierde por un amplio margen, puede llegar a la conclusión de que es más prudente aceptar el resultado que intentar anularlo.Pero a muchos les sigue preocupando la posibilidad de un levantamiento violento por parte de sus partidarios, similar al que experimentó Estados Unidos el 6 de enero de 2021, pero potencialmente a mayor escala.Y eso ha llamado la atención sobre el papel potencialmente importante de la fuerza policial de Brasil en cualquier levantamiento postelectoral. Si se producen disturbios masivos, la llamada policía militar del país, una fuerza de aproximadamente medio millón de oficiales, sería llamada a restaurar el orden. La policía militar está separada de la policía federal, una fuerza más pequeña bajo el mando del Ministerio de Justicia. A pesar de su nombre, las fuerzas de la policía militar están bajo el mando de los gobernadores estatales y no de las fuerzas armadas.Bolsonaro ha pasado años cultivando su apoyo.¿Controlar la crisis, o no?Puede ser fácil olvidar que la policía es un actor político. Los militares y los altos tribunales tienden a recibir mucha atención en las especulaciones sobre si los golpes de Estado podrían o no ser inminentes. La policía, por el contrario, suele ser vista como funcionarios municipales de bajo nivel, importantes cuando se trata de cuestiones de orden público cotidiano, pero no decisivos en cuestiones de supervivencia democrática.Esto puede ser razonable cuando se trata de golpes de Estado tradicionales, que casi siempre requieren el control de los militares para tener éxito, y a menudo también recurren a los altos tribunales para reforzar su legitimidad. (Hay una razón por la que se oye hablar mucho de “golpes militares” y poco de “golpes policiales”).Agentes de policía patrullando a principios de este verano en la Amazonía brasileña.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesPero las revueltas, los levantamientos populares y otras formas de disturbios masivos son diferentes de los golpes tradicionales. La policía suele ser la primera línea de respuesta a estas acciones masivas. Y eso les da un enorme poder para influir en los resultados, por una razón sencilla: pueden decidir si aparecen o no.En la Revolución naranja de Ucrania de 2014, por ejemplo, se produjo un momento decisivo cuando la policía antidisturbios del país, que había perdido la fe en la capacidad del gobierno para aislarlos de la persecución u otras consecuencias, se negó a desalojar a los manifestantes de la plaza que habían ocupado en la capital. Su abandono del gobierno resultó ser un punto de inflexión, y este se derrumbó poco después.En cambio, durante los disturbios del 6 de enero en el Capitolio de Estados Unidos, la actuación decisiva de la Policía del Capitolio protegió a los integrantes del Congreso y a su personal, y acabó por controlar los disturbios.Por supuesto, la policía también puede desempeñar un papel más directo en las crisis electorales. En Kenia, en 2007, por ejemplo, el país estalló en violencia tras acusaciones creíbles de manipulación de votos contra el presidente en funciones. Más tarde, una investigación oficial encontró pruebas de que el gobierno había desplegado 1600 agentes de policía vestidos de civil “para actuar como agentes del gobierno en la interrupción de los procesos electorales o su participación en ellos”, y que los agentes de policía habían matado posteriormente a más de 400 personas y participado en violaciones, saqueos y otros delitos durante la violencia postelectoral.‘Activaron un sistema de frenos’En Brasil, Bolsonaro ha pasado años cortejando el apoyo de los oficiales de la policía militar del país, unidades fuertemente armadas que alguna vez fueron parte del ejército durante los años de dictadura del país, pero que ahora dependen de los gobernadores civiles, dijo Yanilda María González, una politóloga de la Universidad de Harvard que estudia la policía en el continente americano. Esto ha suscitado la preocupación de que la policía pueda respaldar a Bolsonaro en un intento de golpe de Estado, negarse a actuar contra un levantamiento de sus partidarios o ir a la huelga si su oponente es declarado ganador.Adilson Paes de Souza, un teniente coronel retirado de la policía militar que ahora es investigador de psicología policial, dijo que cree que la policía militar es, como individuos, en su mayoría pro-Bolsonaro. Pero el apoyo personal no significa necesariamente que la policía como institución participaría, o se negaría a intervenir, en un levantamiento o golpe de Estado después de las elecciones.En el último año, las autoridades estatales han tomado medidas para reprimir la actividad política de la policía, que tiene prohibido hacer declaraciones políticas públicas. En agosto de 2021, por ejemplo, el gobernador de São Paulo despidió a un comandante de la policía que había publicado un llamamiento público en Facebook para que la gente asistiera a un mitin de Bolsonaro el 7 de septiembre, día de la independencia de Brasil. Esa misma semana, los gobernadores de los estados del país plantearon la cuestión del apoyo de la policía a Bolsonaro en una reunión, y reiteraron la importancia de garantizar que se mantuvieran dentro de los límites legales y constitucionales.El Supremo Tribunal Federal también ha enviado fuertes señales de que no cooperará con ningún intento de golpe de Estado por parte de Bolsonaro o sus partidarios. El tribunal ha ampliado fuertemente sus propios poderes en los últimos años en un esfuerzo por contrarrestar a Bolsonaro, aunque muchos expertos ahora advierten que los esfuerzos de los tribunales han tomado un giro autoritario, que socava la legitimidad de una institución crucial de la democracia brasileña.Paes de Souza dijo que hasta el año pasado, se había sentido “totalmente seguro” de que si el líder de extrema derecha intentaba un golpe, la policía lo acompañaría. Pero después de la reacción institucional de los gobernadores y otros, tiene más confianza en que la democracia prevalecerá. “Las autoridades en estas situaciones han despertado. Y han actuado como instituciones democráticas”, me dijo Paes de Souza. “Dijeron ‘basta’. Activaron un sistema de frenos”.Pero si ese sistema de frenos falla, las consecuencias podrían ser catastróficas.“Las fuerzas policiales, a diferencia de las militares, están repartidas por todo el país”, me dijo González. “Son números enormes. Solo la policía de São Paulo tiene más de 100.000 integrantes”.Y añadió: “Me preocupa mucho la magnitud del daño que podrían causar en poco tiempo los agentes de policía, si participaran en algún tipo de golpe”. More

    • 200 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Turkish Author Ece Temelkuran Sees a Contested U.S. Election Through the Lens of an Attempted Coup

      by

      Ece Temelkuran, a Turkish author, sees parallels between Donald Trump’s claims of election theft and the 2016 attempt to depose Recep Tayyip Erdogan.This article is from a special report on the Athens Democracy Forum, which convenes this week in the Greek capital to examine the ways in which self-governance might evolve.When President Donald J. Trump announced in November 2020 that he had been robbed of victory in the presidential election that month, the author and political commentator Ece Temelkuran (pronounced eh-jeh) drew direct parallels with her homeland, Turkey.“Make no mistake, this is an attempted coup,” she wrote in an editorial for The Guardian. “If it were happening in Turkey, the world’s media would not think twice about calling it so.”Ms. Temelkuran spoke from experience. She lived through the July 2016 coup attempt against the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and left the country to avoid the crackdown that followed. Three years later, she published “How to Lose a Country: The 7 Steps from Democracy to Dictatorship,” a nonfiction book that charted a democratic country’s potential slide into authoritarianism.Ms. Temelkuran was born into a political family. Her mother was a student activist who was imprisoned after a military coup in Turkey in the 1970s and rescued by a young lawyer whom she would go on to marry.When she was 16, Ms. Temelkuran started writing for a feminist magazine and went on to become one of Turkey’s most widely read political commentators.She remains a high-profile commentator today while she lives in Hamburg, Germany, where she is a fellow at the New Institute’s Future of Democracy program.In a recent interview, Ms. Temelkuran spoke of the threats to democracy in the West and in her native Turkey. This conversation has been edited and condensed.Since you published your book “How to Lose Your Country,” a few things have happened. Mr. Trump is no longer in power. Nor is the British prime minister Boris Johnson, who championed Britain’s exit from the European Union. How do you view the world today?I think there’s too much optimism, and also too much pessimism. The optimists think that if they get rid of Boris Johnson or Trump, everything will be back to normal in terms of democracy — that we can just fix a few mechanisms in the democratic machine, and we will be fine after that. I think this is a deeper crisis: a cluster of crises, actually, that we have to look deeper into.The crisis of democracy is very much intertwined with the crisis of capitalism. There is no way out, unless we address the issue of social equality.Ece Temelkuran is an author and political commentator who lives in Hamburg, Germany, where she is a fellow at the New Institute’s Future of Democracy program.Roberto Ricciuti/Getty ImagesYou say democracy in its present form is dead, because capitalism is essentially incompatible with democracy. Can you explain?Right-wing populist movements did not suddenly appear in the last 10 years. We have to go back to the 1980s to understand what really is happening in the world today, especially in terms of democracy.Democracy stands on the fundamental promise of equality and social justice. Capitalism does not promise social justice. If people are not equal in real terms, meaning financially and economically, how can you promise them equality as citizens?Why do you believe that capitalism is at odds with social justice?People pretend as if the rights that workers enjoy — Sundays off, eight-hour work days, etc. — are all thanks to capitalism. In fact, whatever the working classes have achieved or earned has come after a very long and hard struggle against the ruling classes.The depoliticization of society in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to an infantilization of citizens — to their perception of politics as being dirty. This massive depoliticization contributed to the right-wing populist movements of today. That’s why we have all these masses who believe that Trump is the savior, or that Brexit will make Britain great again.Another consequence was that we were made to be afraid of words like socialism, social democracy, regulation, financial regulation. These words became taboo after the 1970s.We’ve ended up in a place where we don’t even allow ourselves to think of a better system than capitalism. It is as if the end of capitalism were to lead to the end of the world.You use the word fascism to describe political realities in the West. That word has serious historical resonance. Why use it?Because I think we should use that word. We were made to believe that fascism was buried in the battlefields of the Second World War. The version that wears boots and uniform was buried, yes. But fascism does not just come in a uniform and boots, marching in goose step. If freedom of speech, freedom of organization, and the rights of the working classes are oppressed, that builds up to fascism.In countries such as the United States and Britain, the democratic establishment is powerful enough to protect itself. But in countries where the political and democratic establishment is not mature enough, you see fully formed oppression. There is no doubt that these are regimes that we can easily call fascism — in Turkey, in India, and in several other countries.Parliamentary democracies aren’t suddenly going to turn Hitlerian, are they?They don’t need to. At the time of Hitler, there was a need to be oppressive and violent because there was a massive union movement in Germany and the rest of Europe, a socialist movement. Nowadays, there is no such thing. So why use violence? They can use post-truths or social media to manipulate people, to spread misinformation and so on.If we can shift global politics to being more progressive, then we can get rid of these movements. At the moment, the center of the political spectrum is empty. Centrist politicians don’t have a story with which to mobilize and organize people. There’s a vacuum.Take French President Emmanuel Macron, for example. Why is he there? Because everybody is so afraid of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. For the last decade, at least, voting has become a tool to protect us from the worst.This is not politics. It’s a survival reaction.Unless the center opens its arms to the left and to progressives, there is no way out for democracy in the world.Turkey was for a long time a model when it came to the transition to democracy in the Muslim world. What’s going on there now?It’s a massive form of dictatorship. But then these dictatorships do not have to use violence. Now they’re using a different political tool, which is this very wide web of political money that spans the entire country. Even the smallest sympathizer to the party is getting this money. They have a good life. If you are part of the party, or in the party circle, you have a life. Otherwise, it’s not just economic transactions that are impossible. You cannot exercise your basic rights as a citizen.There are first-class citizens who are submissive to the party or Erdogan, and the others. The others, as Erdogan has said, are welcome to leave, and they are leaving. There is a massive brain drain from Turkey at the moment. It’s another tragic story. Doctors, nurses, well-educated people, academics: They’re all leaving.What’s the way out?The way out, which Turkish political forces are in a very inadequate way trying at the moment, is coming together: for all the opposition parties, despite their political differences, to come together and, in the interests of democracy, participate in elections. More

    • 88 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is Preparing for a Revolution

      by

      RIO DE JANEIRO — It’s election season in Brazil, and the usual buzz of activity fills the air. The press is eagerly following the campaigns, running profiles of candidates and speculating about future coalitions. Supporters of the candidate in the lead, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, are heatedly debating who the next cabinet ministers will be. And all involved are crisscrossing the country for rallies, in an energetic effort to get out the vote.Yet Jair Bolsonaro, the country’s far-right president, stands apart. While his challengers have spent months looking forward to the election, he has sought to preemptively discredit it. He has questioned the role of the Supreme Court and cast doubt, volubly and often, on the electoral process. He speaks as if the election is an encumbrance, an irritation. He says he will not accept any result that is not a victory.To some, this looks like the groundwork for a coup. In this view, Mr. Bolsonaro intends to refuse any election result that does not please him and, with the help of the military, install himself as president permanently. The reading is half right: Mr. Bolsonaro doesn’t intend to leave office, regardless of the election results. But it’s not a coup, with its need for elite consensus and eschewal of mass mobilization, he’s after. It’s a revolution.Since the beginning of his term, Mr. Bolsonaro has behaved more like a revolutionary leader than a president. In his first month in office, he said that his role was not to build anything, but to “undo” everything. Rather than run a government, he’s tried to disrupt it. He refused to fill roles in crucial regulatory agencies, placed supporters with no technical expertise in high positions, underfunded social programs, punished civil servants for doing their jobs and neglected to provide a coordinated response to the pandemic, which killed over 680,000 Brazilians.It’s not destruction for its own sake, however. Dismantling the state is how Mr. Bolsonaro galvanizes his supporters. By identifying clear enemies and antagonizing them, he excites his followers and, crucially, enlists their support. Everything he does — decrees, bills, pronouncements, demonstrations, alliances — is framed for the digital infrastructure of YouTube, Telegram and WhatsApp. The more radical his actions and words, the more engagement he generates.Support for Mr. Bolsonaro may start online, but it leads to the streets. For the past year, Mr. Bolsonaro has conducted a bimonthly “motociata,” a march with thousands of motorcycles that looks very much like a brute show of strength. His presidency, in fact, aspires to be a permanent rally. On Sept. 7 last year, Brazil’s Independence Day, he gathered almost half a million people to protest against the Supreme Court. On the same day this year, he has promised a big military parade to show the army’s support for his government.It’s not just the military. Many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most fervent supporters are notable for their power over common citizens. He is popular among police officers — a 2021 study estimated that 51 percent of Brazilian street-level police officers were active members of pro-Bolsonaro groups online — and he is also a favored candidate among gun owners. Of those who approve of his government, 18 percent say they already have a gun at home and almost half would like to have one.They may get their wish. One of the major achievements of the Bolsonaro administration has been to weaken gun control, flooding the country with firearms. In 2018, there were around 115,000 people with special licenses to carry a gun in the country. Now there are over 670,000 people holding these licenses — more than in the police and the armed forces. A substantial number of them adore Mr. Bolsonaro and are organized into a vast network of nearly 2,000 gun clubs.Militant and committed, these are the foot soldiers of any future revolution. There’s a lot we don’t know about how that might come about. But it’s clear that if a contingent of supporters, armed and determined to keep Mr. Bolsonaro in power, burst into Brasília, the capital, it would create chaos. In many major cities, it’s not impossible to imagine an insurrection led by police forces — while truck drivers, overwhelmingly pro-Bolsonaro, could block the roads as they did in 2018, creating havoc. Evangelical pastors, whose congregants by large margins support the president, could bless those efforts as part of the fight for good against evil. Out of such anarchy, Mr. Bolsonaro could forge dictatorial order.Who will stop him? Probably not the army. Mr. Bolsonaro, after all, has many supporters in the military and over 6,000 military personnel working in his government, filling civilian roles. For its part, the army seems to be relatively relaxed about a possible takeover and has — to put it mildly — no special attachment to democracy. There is no sign, as far as can be seen, that the armed forces could be protagonists of a coup. But neither is there a sign that they would resist an attempt at revolution.Democratic forces are unlikely to fare much better. For all Mr. da Silva’s popularity, left-wingers seem to have lost their capacity to rally the masses. The 13 years of a left-led government that ended in 2016 did much to disperse and weaken social movements, and they have struggled in the years since to recover their dynamism. Demonstrations against Mr. Bolsonaro, for example, have been poorly attended. And political violence is on the rise: A member of Mr. da Silva’s party, for example, was recently killed by a Bolsonaro supporter. People would certainly think twice before going to the streets to defend a Lula victory.The best bulwark against a revolution, curiously, might be the United States. The Biden administration could make clear the profound costs, in the form of sanctions and international isolation, that would follow any seizure of power. That in turn could frighten big Brazilian businesses — which, as influential backers, can exert considerable pressure on Mr. Bolsonaro — into defending democracy. If the difficulties of executing a revolution are too great and the rewards seem slim, it’s conceivable that Mr. Bolsonaro will back down — or simply stage a performance, as former President Donald Trump did, to maintain control over his followers and prepare the ground for the next election.The last time Brazil experienced similar political chaos was in 1964, when a military coup removed a democratic government that was trying to carry out progressive reforms. It took just a few hours for the United States, then led by Lyndon Johnson, to recognize the new government of Brazil.A lot hinges on the hope that the United States now values democracy a bit more.Miguel Lago is the executive director of the Institute for Health Policy Studies and teaches at Columbia University.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More