Coups D’Etat and Attempted Coups D’Etat

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      Os brasileiros estão prendendo a respiração

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      SÃO PAULO, Brasil — “Se essa for a vontade de Deus, eu continuo”, disse Jair Bolsonaro em meados de setembro. “Se não for, a gente passa a faixa e eu vou me recolher.”Parece bom demais para ser verdade. Afinal, Bolsonaro passou boa parte do ano lançando dúvidas sobre o processo eleitoral e aparentemente preparando o terreno para rejeitar o resultado. Os militares, de forma alarmante, querem conduzir uma contagem paralela dos votos. A ameaça paira no ar: 67% dos brasileiros temem a violência política, e alguns até podem nem se arriscar a ir votar (uma questão importante em um país onde o voto é obrigatório). Rumores de golpe estão por toda parte.Em meio a essa incerteza, há um fato em que se agarrar: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, o ex-presidente brasileiro de esquerda, lidera as pesquisas, com 50% das intenções de votos válidos contra 36% para Bolsonaro. Quatro anos depois que ele foi afastado da cena política após acusações de corrupção e lavagem de dinheiro, acusações que posteriormente se revelaram, na melhor das hipóteses, procedimentalmente duvidosas e, na pior, politicamente motivadas, Lula está de volta para concluir o trabalho. A julgar pelas evidências disponíveis, ele está prestes a vencer: se não diretamente no domingo, obtendo mais de 50% dos votos válidos, então no segundo turno, no dia 30 de outubro.Nós, brasileiros, estamos prendendo a respiração. As próximas semanas podem encerrar um período tétrico, conduzido por um dos piores líderes da nossa história, ou podem nos afundar ainda mais na catástrofe e no desespero. Tudo isso me parece um pouco demais para absorver. Eu pessoalmente decidi passar mais tempo dormindo e limpando a casa — as cortinas nunca foram tão brancas. (E são originalmente beges.) E ainda assim, não importa o quanto eu tente me distrair, nada é capaz de atenuar o meu temor de que algo pode dar terrivelmente errado.Na superfície, as coisas parecem estar calmas. Um forasteiro andando pelas ruas não teria a impressão de que uma eleição presidencial está prestes a acontecer. Olhando pela janela, percebo que as bandeiras do Brasil — que acabaram por representar um apoio a Bolsonaro — foram retiradas das fachadas dos vizinhos. Um sinal ambíguo: pode ter sido uma reação preventiva à derrota ou a calmaria antes da tempestade. Não há muita conversa entre amigos e familiares sobre as eleições; as linhas foram demarcadas em 2018 e não se moveram muito desde então.E a despeito de toda a polarização social, ainda há um enorme apoio à democracia por aqui: 75% dos cidadãos acham que ela é melhor do que qualquer outra forma de governo. Desde o início, Lula tentou explorar esse sentimento comum e abrir uma frente ampla contra Bolsonaro. Ele escolheu um antigo adversário da centro-direita, Geraldo Alckmin, como seu vice-presidente; cortejou assiduamente empresários; e assegurou o apoio de centristas proeminentes. Nessa atmosfera amistosa, apoiadores do candidato de centro-esquerda Ciro Gomes, que tem atualmente cerca de 6% nas pesquisas, podem até dar seus votos para o ex-presidente. Se isso ocorrer, Bolsonaro certamente será derrotado.Essa gloriosa perspectiva faz pouco para dissipar a ansiedade que envolve o país. É fisicamente impossível não se deter no que pode acontecer. As possibilidades são aterrorizantes: as pesquisas podem estar erradas e Bolsonaro pode vencer. As pesquisas podem estar certas e Bolsonaro pode recusar-se a conceder a derrota, e até mesmo iniciar um golpe. Cada dia agora parece ter a duração de um dia em Vênus — em torno de 5.832 horas — a julgar pela agitação no meu feed do Twitter.Há simplesmente muita coisa em jogo. De um lado, há o processo democrático em si, que tem sido posto à prova por Bolsonaro. De outro, há o futuro do nosso Judiciário. Só no próximo ano, teremos duas cadeiras vagas no Supremo Tribunal Federal, de um total de onze. Se estiver no poder, Bolsonaro certamente aproveitará a chance para escolher ministros da linha-dura conservadora, como fez com suas duas últimas indicações. Uma remodelagem do Judiciário à moda de Trump pode estar a caminho.E há o meio ambiente. Até o momento, este ano, mais incêndios florestais foram registrados na Amazônia brasileira do que em todo o ano de 2021, que já tinha sido catastrófico. Desde o início de setembro, nuvens densas de fumaça cobriram inúmeros estados brasileiros. Sob a administração de Bolsonaro, o desmatamento cresceu, as agências regulatórias foram desmanteladas e as mortes de indígenas aumentaram. Reverter essas desastrosas políticas ambientais não poderia ser mais urgente.Além disso, um novo governo poderia enfrentar o terrível destino das 33 milhões de pessoas vivendo em um estado de fome e insegurança alimentar — isso para não mencionar os 62,9 milhões de pessoas (ou 29% da população) que se encontram abaixo da linha da pobreza. Também poderia reduzir a quantidade de armas de fogo em circulação, que, sob os auspícios de Bolsonaro, atingiu a cifra perturbadora de 1,9 milhão. Por último, os brasileiros talvez comecem a se recuperar do trauma de 685 mil mortes por Covid-19.Mas, antes de tudo isso, há um necessário primeiro passo: conduzir Jair Bolsonaro à aposentadoria. Então nós poderemos começar a respirar de novo.Vanessa Barbara é a editora do sítio literário A Hortaliça, autora de dois romances e dois livros de não-ficção em português, e escritora de opinião do The New York Times. More

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      ¿La policía de Brasil apoyaría un golpe de Estado a favor de Bolsonaro?

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      Si las elecciones del domingo provocan disturbios masivos, se llamaría a la policía militar del país a restaurar el orden, dándole un tremendo poder para incidir en los resultados.El domingo, los brasileños acuden a las urnas para elegir a su próximo presidente. Pero desde hace meses, la cuestión que se plantea en el país no es quién ganará, sino si Jair Bolsonaro, el actual líder del país, intentará dar un golpe de Estado si pierde.Bolsonaro, quien va a rezagado en las encuestas, ha hecho todo lo posible por sembrar dudas sobre la validez de las elecciones brasileñas, al afirmar, por ejemplo, que las máquinas de votación electrónica del país serán manipuladas para inclinar el voto a favor de su oponente de izquierda, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.A pesar de las relaciones amistosas de Bolsonaro con los militares, parece carecer del apoyo institucional que necesitaría para dar un golpe de Estado exitoso. Y si pierde por un amplio margen, puede llegar a la conclusión de que es más prudente aceptar el resultado que intentar anularlo.Pero a muchos les sigue preocupando la posibilidad de un levantamiento violento por parte de sus partidarios, similar al que experimentó Estados Unidos el 6 de enero de 2021, pero potencialmente a mayor escala.Y eso ha llamado la atención sobre el papel potencialmente importante de la fuerza policial de Brasil en cualquier levantamiento postelectoral. Si se producen disturbios masivos, la llamada policía militar del país, una fuerza de aproximadamente medio millón de oficiales, sería llamada a restaurar el orden. La policía militar está separada de la policía federal, una fuerza más pequeña bajo el mando del Ministerio de Justicia. A pesar de su nombre, las fuerzas de la policía militar están bajo el mando de los gobernadores estatales y no de las fuerzas armadas.Bolsonaro ha pasado años cultivando su apoyo.¿Controlar la crisis, o no?Puede ser fácil olvidar que la policía es un actor político. Los militares y los altos tribunales tienden a recibir mucha atención en las especulaciones sobre si los golpes de Estado podrían o no ser inminentes. La policía, por el contrario, suele ser vista como funcionarios municipales de bajo nivel, importantes cuando se trata de cuestiones de orden público cotidiano, pero no decisivos en cuestiones de supervivencia democrática.Esto puede ser razonable cuando se trata de golpes de Estado tradicionales, que casi siempre requieren el control de los militares para tener éxito, y a menudo también recurren a los altos tribunales para reforzar su legitimidad. (Hay una razón por la que se oye hablar mucho de “golpes militares” y poco de “golpes policiales”).Agentes de policía patrullando a principios de este verano en la Amazonía brasileña.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesPero las revueltas, los levantamientos populares y otras formas de disturbios masivos son diferentes de los golpes tradicionales. La policía suele ser la primera línea de respuesta a estas acciones masivas. Y eso les da un enorme poder para influir en los resultados, por una razón sencilla: pueden decidir si aparecen o no.En la Revolución naranja de Ucrania de 2014, por ejemplo, se produjo un momento decisivo cuando la policía antidisturbios del país, que había perdido la fe en la capacidad del gobierno para aislarlos de la persecución u otras consecuencias, se negó a desalojar a los manifestantes de la plaza que habían ocupado en la capital. Su abandono del gobierno resultó ser un punto de inflexión, y este se derrumbó poco después.En cambio, durante los disturbios del 6 de enero en el Capitolio de Estados Unidos, la actuación decisiva de la Policía del Capitolio protegió a los integrantes del Congreso y a su personal, y acabó por controlar los disturbios.Por supuesto, la policía también puede desempeñar un papel más directo en las crisis electorales. En Kenia, en 2007, por ejemplo, el país estalló en violencia tras acusaciones creíbles de manipulación de votos contra el presidente en funciones. Más tarde, una investigación oficial encontró pruebas de que el gobierno había desplegado 1600 agentes de policía vestidos de civil “para actuar como agentes del gobierno en la interrupción de los procesos electorales o su participación en ellos”, y que los agentes de policía habían matado posteriormente a más de 400 personas y participado en violaciones, saqueos y otros delitos durante la violencia postelectoral.‘Activaron un sistema de frenos’En Brasil, Bolsonaro ha pasado años cortejando el apoyo de los oficiales de la policía militar del país, unidades fuertemente armadas que alguna vez fueron parte del ejército durante los años de dictadura del país, pero que ahora dependen de los gobernadores civiles, dijo Yanilda María González, una politóloga de la Universidad de Harvard que estudia la policía en el continente americano. Esto ha suscitado la preocupación de que la policía pueda respaldar a Bolsonaro en un intento de golpe de Estado, negarse a actuar contra un levantamiento de sus partidarios o ir a la huelga si su oponente es declarado ganador.Adilson Paes de Souza, un teniente coronel retirado de la policía militar que ahora es investigador de psicología policial, dijo que cree que la policía militar es, como individuos, en su mayoría pro-Bolsonaro. Pero el apoyo personal no significa necesariamente que la policía como institución participaría, o se negaría a intervenir, en un levantamiento o golpe de Estado después de las elecciones.En el último año, las autoridades estatales han tomado medidas para reprimir la actividad política de la policía, que tiene prohibido hacer declaraciones políticas públicas. En agosto de 2021, por ejemplo, el gobernador de São Paulo despidió a un comandante de la policía que había publicado un llamamiento público en Facebook para que la gente asistiera a un mitin de Bolsonaro el 7 de septiembre, día de la independencia de Brasil. Esa misma semana, los gobernadores de los estados del país plantearon la cuestión del apoyo de la policía a Bolsonaro en una reunión, y reiteraron la importancia de garantizar que se mantuvieran dentro de los límites legales y constitucionales.El Supremo Tribunal Federal también ha enviado fuertes señales de que no cooperará con ningún intento de golpe de Estado por parte de Bolsonaro o sus partidarios. El tribunal ha ampliado fuertemente sus propios poderes en los últimos años en un esfuerzo por contrarrestar a Bolsonaro, aunque muchos expertos ahora advierten que los esfuerzos de los tribunales han tomado un giro autoritario, que socava la legitimidad de una institución crucial de la democracia brasileña.Paes de Souza dijo que hasta el año pasado, se había sentido “totalmente seguro” de que si el líder de extrema derecha intentaba un golpe, la policía lo acompañaría. Pero después de la reacción institucional de los gobernadores y otros, tiene más confianza en que la democracia prevalecerá. “Las autoridades en estas situaciones han despertado. Y han actuado como instituciones democráticas”, me dijo Paes de Souza. “Dijeron ‘basta’. Activaron un sistema de frenos”.Pero si ese sistema de frenos falla, las consecuencias podrían ser catastróficas.“Las fuerzas policiales, a diferencia de las militares, están repartidas por todo el país”, me dijo González. “Son números enormes. Solo la policía de São Paulo tiene más de 100.000 integrantes”.Y añadió: “Me preocupa mucho la magnitud del daño que podrían causar en poco tiempo los agentes de policía, si participaran en algún tipo de golpe”. More

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      Turkish Author Ece Temelkuran Sees a Contested U.S. Election Through the Lens of an Attempted Coup

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      Ece Temelkuran, a Turkish author, sees parallels between Donald Trump’s claims of election theft and the 2016 attempt to depose Recep Tayyip Erdogan.This article is from a special report on the Athens Democracy Forum, which convenes this week in the Greek capital to examine the ways in which self-governance might evolve.When President Donald J. Trump announced in November 2020 that he had been robbed of victory in the presidential election that month, the author and political commentator Ece Temelkuran (pronounced eh-jeh) drew direct parallels with her homeland, Turkey.“Make no mistake, this is an attempted coup,” she wrote in an editorial for The Guardian. “If it were happening in Turkey, the world’s media would not think twice about calling it so.”Ms. Temelkuran spoke from experience. She lived through the July 2016 coup attempt against the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and left the country to avoid the crackdown that followed. Three years later, she published “How to Lose a Country: The 7 Steps from Democracy to Dictatorship,” a nonfiction book that charted a democratic country’s potential slide into authoritarianism.Ms. Temelkuran was born into a political family. Her mother was a student activist who was imprisoned after a military coup in Turkey in the 1970s and rescued by a young lawyer whom she would go on to marry.When she was 16, Ms. Temelkuran started writing for a feminist magazine and went on to become one of Turkey’s most widely read political commentators.She remains a high-profile commentator today while she lives in Hamburg, Germany, where she is a fellow at the New Institute’s Future of Democracy program.In a recent interview, Ms. Temelkuran spoke of the threats to democracy in the West and in her native Turkey. This conversation has been edited and condensed.Since you published your book “How to Lose Your Country,” a few things have happened. Mr. Trump is no longer in power. Nor is the British prime minister Boris Johnson, who championed Britain’s exit from the European Union. How do you view the world today?I think there’s too much optimism, and also too much pessimism. The optimists think that if they get rid of Boris Johnson or Trump, everything will be back to normal in terms of democracy — that we can just fix a few mechanisms in the democratic machine, and we will be fine after that. I think this is a deeper crisis: a cluster of crises, actually, that we have to look deeper into.The crisis of democracy is very much intertwined with the crisis of capitalism. There is no way out, unless we address the issue of social equality.Ece Temelkuran is an author and political commentator who lives in Hamburg, Germany, where she is a fellow at the New Institute’s Future of Democracy program.Roberto Ricciuti/Getty ImagesYou say democracy in its present form is dead, because capitalism is essentially incompatible with democracy. Can you explain?Right-wing populist movements did not suddenly appear in the last 10 years. We have to go back to the 1980s to understand what really is happening in the world today, especially in terms of democracy.Democracy stands on the fundamental promise of equality and social justice. Capitalism does not promise social justice. If people are not equal in real terms, meaning financially and economically, how can you promise them equality as citizens?Why do you believe that capitalism is at odds with social justice?People pretend as if the rights that workers enjoy — Sundays off, eight-hour work days, etc. — are all thanks to capitalism. In fact, whatever the working classes have achieved or earned has come after a very long and hard struggle against the ruling classes.The depoliticization of society in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to an infantilization of citizens — to their perception of politics as being dirty. This massive depoliticization contributed to the right-wing populist movements of today. That’s why we have all these masses who believe that Trump is the savior, or that Brexit will make Britain great again.Another consequence was that we were made to be afraid of words like socialism, social democracy, regulation, financial regulation. These words became taboo after the 1970s.We’ve ended up in a place where we don’t even allow ourselves to think of a better system than capitalism. It is as if the end of capitalism were to lead to the end of the world.You use the word fascism to describe political realities in the West. That word has serious historical resonance. Why use it?Because I think we should use that word. We were made to believe that fascism was buried in the battlefields of the Second World War. The version that wears boots and uniform was buried, yes. But fascism does not just come in a uniform and boots, marching in goose step. If freedom of speech, freedom of organization, and the rights of the working classes are oppressed, that builds up to fascism.In countries such as the United States and Britain, the democratic establishment is powerful enough to protect itself. But in countries where the political and democratic establishment is not mature enough, you see fully formed oppression. There is no doubt that these are regimes that we can easily call fascism — in Turkey, in India, and in several other countries.Parliamentary democracies aren’t suddenly going to turn Hitlerian, are they?They don’t need to. At the time of Hitler, there was a need to be oppressive and violent because there was a massive union movement in Germany and the rest of Europe, a socialist movement. Nowadays, there is no such thing. So why use violence? They can use post-truths or social media to manipulate people, to spread misinformation and so on.If we can shift global politics to being more progressive, then we can get rid of these movements. At the moment, the center of the political spectrum is empty. Centrist politicians don’t have a story with which to mobilize and organize people. There’s a vacuum.Take French President Emmanuel Macron, for example. Why is he there? Because everybody is so afraid of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. For the last decade, at least, voting has become a tool to protect us from the worst.This is not politics. It’s a survival reaction.Unless the center opens its arms to the left and to progressives, there is no way out for democracy in the world.Turkey was for a long time a model when it came to the transition to democracy in the Muslim world. What’s going on there now?It’s a massive form of dictatorship. But then these dictatorships do not have to use violence. Now they’re using a different political tool, which is this very wide web of political money that spans the entire country. Even the smallest sympathizer to the party is getting this money. They have a good life. If you are part of the party, or in the party circle, you have a life. Otherwise, it’s not just economic transactions that are impossible. You cannot exercise your basic rights as a citizen.There are first-class citizens who are submissive to the party or Erdogan, and the others. The others, as Erdogan has said, are welcome to leave, and they are leaving. There is a massive brain drain from Turkey at the moment. It’s another tragic story. Doctors, nurses, well-educated people, academics: They’re all leaving.What’s the way out?The way out, which Turkish political forces are in a very inadequate way trying at the moment, is coming together: for all the opposition parties, despite their political differences, to come together and, in the interests of democracy, participate in elections. More

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      Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is Preparing for a Revolution

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      RIO DE JANEIRO — It’s election season in Brazil, and the usual buzz of activity fills the air. The press is eagerly following the campaigns, running profiles of candidates and speculating about future coalitions. Supporters of the candidate in the lead, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, are heatedly debating who the next cabinet ministers will be. And all involved are crisscrossing the country for rallies, in an energetic effort to get out the vote.Yet Jair Bolsonaro, the country’s far-right president, stands apart. While his challengers have spent months looking forward to the election, he has sought to preemptively discredit it. He has questioned the role of the Supreme Court and cast doubt, volubly and often, on the electoral process. He speaks as if the election is an encumbrance, an irritation. He says he will not accept any result that is not a victory.To some, this looks like the groundwork for a coup. In this view, Mr. Bolsonaro intends to refuse any election result that does not please him and, with the help of the military, install himself as president permanently. The reading is half right: Mr. Bolsonaro doesn’t intend to leave office, regardless of the election results. But it’s not a coup, with its need for elite consensus and eschewal of mass mobilization, he’s after. It’s a revolution.Since the beginning of his term, Mr. Bolsonaro has behaved more like a revolutionary leader than a president. In his first month in office, he said that his role was not to build anything, but to “undo” everything. Rather than run a government, he’s tried to disrupt it. He refused to fill roles in crucial regulatory agencies, placed supporters with no technical expertise in high positions, underfunded social programs, punished civil servants for doing their jobs and neglected to provide a coordinated response to the pandemic, which killed over 680,000 Brazilians.It’s not destruction for its own sake, however. Dismantling the state is how Mr. Bolsonaro galvanizes his supporters. By identifying clear enemies and antagonizing them, he excites his followers and, crucially, enlists their support. Everything he does — decrees, bills, pronouncements, demonstrations, alliances — is framed for the digital infrastructure of YouTube, Telegram and WhatsApp. The more radical his actions and words, the more engagement he generates.Support for Mr. Bolsonaro may start online, but it leads to the streets. For the past year, Mr. Bolsonaro has conducted a bimonthly “motociata,” a march with thousands of motorcycles that looks very much like a brute show of strength. His presidency, in fact, aspires to be a permanent rally. On Sept. 7 last year, Brazil’s Independence Day, he gathered almost half a million people to protest against the Supreme Court. On the same day this year, he has promised a big military parade to show the army’s support for his government.It’s not just the military. Many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most fervent supporters are notable for their power over common citizens. He is popular among police officers — a 2021 study estimated that 51 percent of Brazilian street-level police officers were active members of pro-Bolsonaro groups online — and he is also a favored candidate among gun owners. Of those who approve of his government, 18 percent say they already have a gun at home and almost half would like to have one.They may get their wish. One of the major achievements of the Bolsonaro administration has been to weaken gun control, flooding the country with firearms. In 2018, there were around 115,000 people with special licenses to carry a gun in the country. Now there are over 670,000 people holding these licenses — more than in the police and the armed forces. A substantial number of them adore Mr. Bolsonaro and are organized into a vast network of nearly 2,000 gun clubs.Militant and committed, these are the foot soldiers of any future revolution. There’s a lot we don’t know about how that might come about. But it’s clear that if a contingent of supporters, armed and determined to keep Mr. Bolsonaro in power, burst into Brasília, the capital, it would create chaos. In many major cities, it’s not impossible to imagine an insurrection led by police forces — while truck drivers, overwhelmingly pro-Bolsonaro, could block the roads as they did in 2018, creating havoc. Evangelical pastors, whose congregants by large margins support the president, could bless those efforts as part of the fight for good against evil. Out of such anarchy, Mr. Bolsonaro could forge dictatorial order.Who will stop him? Probably not the army. Mr. Bolsonaro, after all, has many supporters in the military and over 6,000 military personnel working in his government, filling civilian roles. For its part, the army seems to be relatively relaxed about a possible takeover and has — to put it mildly — no special attachment to democracy. There is no sign, as far as can be seen, that the armed forces could be protagonists of a coup. But neither is there a sign that they would resist an attempt at revolution.Democratic forces are unlikely to fare much better. For all Mr. da Silva’s popularity, left-wingers seem to have lost their capacity to rally the masses. The 13 years of a left-led government that ended in 2016 did much to disperse and weaken social movements, and they have struggled in the years since to recover their dynamism. Demonstrations against Mr. Bolsonaro, for example, have been poorly attended. And political violence is on the rise: A member of Mr. da Silva’s party, for example, was recently killed by a Bolsonaro supporter. People would certainly think twice before going to the streets to defend a Lula victory.The best bulwark against a revolution, curiously, might be the United States. The Biden administration could make clear the profound costs, in the form of sanctions and international isolation, that would follow any seizure of power. That in turn could frighten big Brazilian businesses — which, as influential backers, can exert considerable pressure on Mr. Bolsonaro — into defending democracy. If the difficulties of executing a revolution are too great and the rewards seem slim, it’s conceivable that Mr. Bolsonaro will back down — or simply stage a performance, as former President Donald Trump did, to maintain control over his followers and prepare the ground for the next election.The last time Brazil experienced similar political chaos was in 1964, when a military coup removed a democratic government that was trying to carry out progressive reforms. It took just a few hours for the United States, then led by Lyndon Johnson, to recognize the new government of Brazil.A lot hinges on the hope that the United States now values democracy a bit more.Miguel Lago is the executive director of the Institute for Health Policy Studies and teaches at Columbia University.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Myanmar’s Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Gets More Prison Time

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      Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the politician and Nobel laureate, was found guilty of election fraud on Friday, a sign that the junta has no intention of easing its pressure on her.Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s ousted civilian leader who was detained in a coup last year, was sentenced to three more years in prison, with hard labor, on Friday when a court found her guilty of election fraud in a case that the army brought against her after her political party won in a landslide in 2020.The latest sentence brings her total prison term to 20 years, an indication that the junta is not easing its pressure on Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi despite international condemnation. The guilty verdict comes as the military seeks to erase her influence in the country. Last month, Myanmar’s military-backed Supreme Court announced that it would auction off her residence, where she spent nearly 15 years under house arrest under a previous regime.The election fraud case stems from a November 2021 charge brought by the junta-controlled Election Commission: Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior officials were accused of manipulating voter lists to clinch the 2020 election. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, the National League for Democracy, crushed the military-backed party in that vote, which independent international observers declared free and fair.The election commission’s previous members also pushed back against the claim of voter fraud, saying there was no evidence. A day after announcing the coup in February 2021, the army dismissed all the members of the commission and installed their own people. It later announced that the election results had been canceled.In July, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi testified for the first time on the election fraud charge, saying she was not guilty. On Friday, a judge in Naypyidaw, the capital, also sentenced U Win Myint, the country’s ousted president, to three years, the maximum term, on the same charge.The junta, which has long rejected criticisms that the charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi were politically motivated, has accused her of breaking the law. In the election fraud case, it said it had found nearly 10.5 million instances of irregularities and had identified entries where a person’s national identification number had been repeated — either under the same name or a different one. It also said it found ballots with no national identification number listed at all.Supporters of the National League for Democracy, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, celebrating her victory in Yangon in November 2020. A court found her guilty of election fraud after her political party won in a landslide in 2020.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe U.S.-based Carter Center, which had more than 40 observers visiting polling stations on Election Day, said voting had taken place “without major irregularities being reported by mission observers.”Friday’s sentencing was the fifth verdict meted out against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, 77, who has already stood trial on a series of other charges that include inciting public unrest and breaching Covid-19 protocols. It was the first time she had been sentenced to hard labor, which forces convicts to carry heavy rocks in quarries, a practice international rights groups have denounced. She is appealing the sentence, according to a source familiar with the legal proceedings.She had already been sentenced to a total of 17 years in prison, starting in December 2021. She still faces eight more charges relating to corruption and violating the official secrets act. If found guilty on all remaining charges, she could face a maximum imprisonment of 119 years.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate, has denied all of the charges against her, while the United Nations and many other international organizations have demanded her freedom.No one has heard from Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi since she was detained, except for her lawyers, who are banned from speaking to the media. She is being held in solitary confinement, whereas previous military regimes allowed her to remain under house arrest.Despite the regime’s effort to make her disappear, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is still revered by many in Myanmar. A paper fan that belonged to her sold in an online auction for more than $340,000 last month to help a victim who had been burned by the military in an arson attack. Her son, Kim Aris, auctioned off a piece of art that sold for more than $1 million, money that will go toward helping victims of the military’s brutality.Myanmar has been wracked by widespread protests since the coup. Thousands of armed resistance fighters are battling the army, carrying out bombings and assassinations that have handicapped the military in some parts of the country. The civil disobedience movement, started by striking doctors, teachers and railway workers, is still going strong.Protestors in Yangon in March 2021. Myanmar has been wracked by widespread protests since the coup.The New York TimesOn Friday, the junta sentenced Vicky Bowman, a former British ambassador, and her Burmese husband, Ko Htein Lin, to one year in prison for breaching immigration laws, according to a prison official.The Tatmadaw, as Myanmar’s army is known, has long resented Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, whose widespread popularity threatens military rule. Before her most recent arrest, she had kept a distance from Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the army and the general behind the coup.The two leaders were part of a delicate power-sharing arrangement in which Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi headed the civilian side of government and General Min Aung Hlaing maintained absolute control over the military, the police and the border guards. The two rarely spoke, choosing instead to send messages through an intermediary.Many political experts point to the time in 2016 when Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, the N.L.D., introduced a bill in Parliament to create a new post for her as state counselor as a moment when ties fractured between the army and Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. As state counselor, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi declared herself above the president and named herself foreign minister, a move that the military saw as a power grab.In November 2020, the N.L.D. won by an even greater margin compared with its previous election showing. Three months later, and hours before the new Parliament was scheduled to be sworn in, soldiers and the police arrested Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other party leaders.General Min Aung Hlaing announced the coup later that day, declaring on public television that there had been “terrible fraud” during the vote. More

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      Elecciones en Brasil: ¿Habrá un golpe de Estado de Bolsonaro?

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      El presidente Bolsonaro ha advertido la posibilidad de fraude e insinuado que impugnará los resultados si pierde. La élite política considera que no tiene respaldo para intentar aferrarse al poder.Una pregunta simple pero alarmante domina el discurso político en Brasil cuando faltan apenas seis semanas para las elecciones nacionales: ¿Aceptará el presidente Jair Bolsonaro los resultados?Durante meses, Bolsonaro ha atacado a las máquinas de votación electrónica de Brasil diciendo que están plagadas de fraude —a pesar de que prácticamente no hay pruebas— y a los funcionarios electorales de Brasil por estar alineados contra él. Ha insinuado que disputaría cualquier derrota a menos que se realicen cambios en los procedimientos electorales. Ha alistado a los militares brasileños en su batalla. Y ha dicho a sus decenas de millones de seguidores que se preparen para luchar.“Si es necesario”, dijo en un discurso reciente, “iremos a la guerra”.Con la votación del 2 de octubre, Brasil se sitúa ahora en la vanguardia de las crecientes amenazas globales a la democracia, impulsadas por líderes populistas, extremismo, electorados muy polarizados y desinformación en internet. La cuarta democracia más poblada del mundo se prepara para la posibilidad de que su presidente se niegue a dejar el poder por acusaciones de fraude que podrían ser difíciles de desmentir.Sin embargo, según entrevistas con más de 35 funcionarios del gobierno de Bolsonaro, generales militares, jueces federales, autoridades electorales, miembros del Congreso y diplomáticos extranjeros, la élite del poder en Brasil se siente confiada de que, aunque Bolsonaro pudiera disputar los resultados de las elecciones, carece del apoyo institucional para dar un golpe de Estado exitoso.El último golpe de Brasil, en 1964, condujo a una brutal dictadura militar que duró 21 años. “La clase media lo apoyó. Los empresarios lo apoyaron. La prensa lo apoyó. Y Estados Unidos lo apoyó”, dijo Luís Roberto Barroso, juez del Supremo Tribunal Federal y ex jefe de la autoridad electoral de Brasil. “Pues bien, ninguno de estos actores apoya un golpe ahora”.Personas preparándose para un paseo en moto celebrado en apoyo de Bolsonaro en Salvador, Brasil.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEn cambio, los funcionarios se preocupan por el daño duradero a las instituciones democráticas de Brasil —las encuestas muestran que una quinta parte del país ha perdido la fe en los sistemas electorales— y por la violencia en las calles. Las afirmaciones de fraude de Bolsonaro y su potencial negativa a aceptar una derrota se hacen eco de las de su aliado Donald Trump; los funcionarios brasileños mencionaron repetidamente el ataque del 6 de enero de 2021 en el Capitolio de Estados Unidos como un ejemplo de lo que podría suceder.“¿Cómo tenemos algún control sobre esto?”, dijo Flávio Bolsonaro, senador e hijo de Bolsonaro, en una entrevista con el periódico brasileño Estadão en referencia a la violencia potencial. En Estados Unidos, dijo, “la gente estuvo al tanto de los problemas del sistema electoral, se indignó e hizo lo que hizo. No hubo orden del presidente Trump y no habrá orden del presidente Bolsonaro”.Este mes, más de un millón de brasileños, entre los que se encuentran expresidentes, académicos de alto nivel, abogados y estrellas del pop, firmaron una carta en defensa de los sistemas de votación del país. Los principales grupos empresariales de Brasil también publicaron una carta similar.El martes, en un acto al que acudieron casi todas las principales figuras políticas brasileñas, otro magistrado del Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes, asumió el cargo de nuevo jefe de elecciones del país y advirtió que castigaría los ataques al proceso electoral.“La libertad de expresión no es libertad para destruir la democracia, para destruir las instituciones”, dijo. Su reacción, añadió, “será rápida, firme e implacable”.La multitud se puso en pie y aplaudió. Bolsonaro se quedó sentado y frunció el ceño.Bolsonaro, cuyos representantes declinaron las solicitudes de entrevista, ha dicho que está tratando de proteger la democracia de Brasil mediante el fortalecimiento de sus sistemas de votación.Entre los funcionarios entrevistados, hubo un amplio desacuerdo sobre si al presidente derechista lo impulsaba una genuina preocupación por el fraude o simplemente el miedo a perder. Bolsonaro ha quedado constantemente por detrás del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un izquierdista, en las encuestas de opinión; si nadie gana la mayoría de los votos el 2 de octubre, está prevista una segunda vuelta para el 30 de octubre.Bolsonaro va por detrás del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva en las encuestas.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesSin embargo, hay cada vez más esperanzas de que suceda una transición sin sobresaltos si Bolsonaro pierde, porque el mandatario ahora parece estar dispuesto a una tregua.Sus aliados, incluyendo altos oficiales de las fuerzas armadas, están a punto de comenzar negociaciones con De Moraes sobre los cambios al sistema electoral diseñados para atender las críticas de seguridad del presidente, según tres jueces federales y un alto funcionario del gobierno cercano a las conversaciones previstas, que hablaron bajo la condición de anonimato porque son confidenciales.La idea es que Bolsonaro retroceda en sus ataques a las máquinas de votación, dijeron estas personas, si los funcionarios electorales aceptan algunos cambios solicitados por los militares de Brasil.“Tengo plena confianza en el sistema electoral de Brasil. Eso tampoco significa que sea infalible”, dijo Ciro Nogueira, jefe de gabinete de Bolsonaro. “Estoy seguro de que, como dice el presidente, el pueblo tendrá su opinión”. Y el sábado, Bolsonaro pareció insinuar en un mitin que aceptaría los resultados de las elecciones.Sin embargo, Bolsonaro ha hecho comentarios similares en el pasado y acordó una tregua similar el año pasado… y luego continuó sus ataques.Esos ataques han surtido efecto. Desde junio, los usuarios brasileños de Twitter han mencionado las máquinas de votación de Brasil más que la inflación o los programas de bienestar social en relación con las elecciones, y casi tanto como los precios de la gasolina, que han sido un punto importante del debate político, según un análisis realizado por investigadores de la Escuela de Comunicación de la Fundación Getúlio Vargas solicitado por The New York Times.Partidarios de Bolsonaro en Salvador, BrasilVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesUn sondeo realizado el mes pasado mostró que el 32 por ciento de los brasileños confía “un poco” en las máquinas de votación y el 20 por ciento no confía en ellas para nada.Y mientras que bastantes de los partidarios de Bolsonaro están convencidos de que el voto puede estar amañado, muchos más también tienen armas. Bolsonaro facilitó la compra de armas de fuego por parte de civiles con restricciones más laxas para los cazadores, y ahora más de 670.000 brasileños poseen armas bajo esas normas, 10 veces más que hace cinco años.Dentro de su gobierno, Bolsonaro se ha visto cada vez más dividido entre dos facciones.Una de ellas ha animado al presidente a dejar de atacar las máquinas de votación porque creen que el tema es impopular entre los votantes más moderados que necesita ganar y porque la economía de Brasil está repuntando, lo que ayuda a sus posibilidades de reelección, según dos altos asesores del presidente.Dijeron que el otro grupo, liderado por antiguos generales militares, ha alimentado al presidente con información errónea y lo ha instado a seguir advirtiendo de posibles fraudes.Los funcionarios electorales invitaron el año pasado a los militares a unirse a un comité para mejorar los sistemas electorales. Los militares sugirieron una serie de cambios, pero los funcionarios electorales dijeron que no podrían aplicarse a tiempo para la votación de octubre.Pero los líderes militares siguen presionando en busca de un cambio en particular: que las pruebas de integridad de las máquinas de votación se realicen con votantes reales, en lugar de con simulaciones.Durante meses, Bolsonaro ha acusado a los funcionarios electorales de estar alineados en contra suya.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesA los militares les preocupa que un pirata informático pueda implantar un software malicioso en las máquinas de votación que reconozca las simulaciones y permanezca inactivo durante esas pruebas, lo que le permitiría evadir la detección.Un experto en seguridad electoral dijo que tal hackeo es concebible pero improbable.De Moraes, el nuevo jefe de elecciones, ha señalado que estaría dispuesto a realizar cambios en los sistemas de votación, aunque no está claro lo que podría lograrse para el 2 de octubre.Bolsonaro lleva mucho tiempo en desacuerdo con De Moraes, que ha dirigido las investigaciones sobre las denuncias de desinformación y filtraciones de material clasificado que implican al presidente y a sus aliados. Bolsonaro ha criticado a De Moraes por considerarlo políticamente motivado, y dijo en un mitin el año pasado que ya no acataría sus dictámenes, declaración de la que luego se retractó.Por lo tanto, se esperaba que el ascenso de De Moraes a la presidencia del tribunal superior electoral de Brasil agravara aún más las tensiones.Pero en las últimas semanas, él y Bolsonaro han comenzado a chatear por WhatsApp en un esfuerzo por arreglar su relación, según una persona cercana al presidente. Cuando De Moraes le entregó en mano una invitación para su investidura como presidente del tribunal electoral este mes, Bolsonaro le regaló una camiseta del Corinthians, el equipo de fútbol favorito de De Moraes. (El Corinthians es el archienemigo del equipo favorito de Bolsonaro, el Palmeiras).Con las tensiones a flor de piel, los dirigentes brasileños decidieron hacer de la toma de posesión de De Moraes el martes de la semana pasada —normalmente un acto de trámite— una demostración de la fortaleza de la democracia brasileña.Las caravanas de motos se han convertido en algo habitual en los actos de apoyo al presidente en todo el país.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEn un anfiteatro modernista y subterráneo, los jefes del Congreso brasileño, el Supremo Tribunal Federal y los militares se unieron a cinco de los seis presidentes vivos de Brasil para la ceremonia, incluidos Bolsonaro y Lula da Silva.Las cámaras enfocaron a Bolsonaro junto a De Moraes en la mesa principal, una escena poco habitual. Conversaron en voz baja, a veces entre risas, durante todo el evento. Entonces De Moraes se levantó para su discurso. Antes del evento, había advertido a Bolsonaro que no lo disfrutaría, según una persona cercana al presidente.“Somos la única democracia del mundo que calcula y publica los resultados electorales en el mismo día, con agilidad, seguridad, competencia y transparencia”, dijo. “La democracia no es un camino fácil, exacto o predecible. Pero es el único camino”.La sala le dedicó una ovación de 40 segundos. Bolsonaro fue de los primeros en dejar de aplaudir.Después, los dos hombres posaron para una foto. No sonrieron.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía del Times en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Antes cubría tecnología desde San Francisco. Antes de unirse al Times, en 2018, trabajó durante siete años en The Wall Street Journal. @jacknicas • Facebook More

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      The Question Menacing Brazil’s Elections: Coup or No Coup?

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      President Bolsonaro has warned of voter fraud and suggested he would dispute a loss in October’s vote, but the political establishment believes he lacks support to stage a coup.BRASÍLIA — A simple but alarming question is dominating political discourse in Brazil with just six weeks left until national elections: Will President Jair Bolsonaro accept the results?For months, Mr. Bolsonaro has attacked Brazil’s electronic voting machines as rife with fraud — despite virtually no evidence — and Brazil’s election officials as aligned against him. He has suggested that he would dispute any loss unless changes are made in election procedures. He has enlisted Brazil’s military in his battle. And he has told his tens of millions of supporters to prepare for a fight.“If need be,” he said in a recent speech, “we will go to war.”With its vote on Oct. 2, Brazil is now at the forefront of the growing global threats to democracy, fueled by populist leaders, extremism, highly polarized electorates and internet disinformation. The world’s fourth-largest democracy is bracing for the possibility of its president refusing to step down because of fraud allegations that could be difficult to disprove.Yet, according to interviews with more than 35 Bolsonaro administration officials, military generals, federal judges, election authorities, members of Congress and foreign diplomats, the people in power in Brazil feel confident that while Mr. Bolsonaro could dispute the election’s results, he lacks the institutional support to stage a successful coup.Brazil’s last coup, in 1964, led to a brutal 21-year military dictatorship. “The middle class supported it. Business people supported it. The press supported it. And the U.S. supported it,” said Luís Roberto Barroso, a Supreme Court justice and Brazil’s former elections chief. “Well, none of these players support a coup now.”People preparing for a motorcycle ride in Salvador, Brazil, held in support of Mr. Bolsonaro. Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesInstead, the officials worry about lasting damage to Brazil’s democratic institutions — polls show a fifth of the country has lost faith in the election systems — and about violence in the streets. Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims of fraud and potential refusal to accept a loss echo those of his ally Donald J. Trump, and Brazilian officials repeatedly cited the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol as an example of what could happen.“How do we have any control over this?” Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and Mr. Bolsonaro’s son, said in an interview with the Brazilian newspaper Estadão in reference to potential violence. In the United States, he said, “people followed the problems in the electoral system, were outraged and did what they did. There was no command from President Trump, and there will be no command from President Bolsonaro.”This month, more than one million Brazilians, including former presidents, top academics, lawyers and pop stars, signed a letter defending the country’s voting systems. Brazil’s top business groups also released a similar letter.On Tuesday, at an event with nearly every major Brazilian political figure present, another Supreme Court justice, Alexandre de Moraes, took office as the nation’s new elections chief and warned that he would punish attacks on the electoral process.“Freedom of expression is not freedom to destroy democracy, to destroy institutions,” he said. His reaction, he added, “will be swift, firm and relentless.”The crowd stood and applauded. Mr. Bolsonaro sat and scowled.Mr. Bolsonaro, whose representatives declined requests for an interview, has said that he is trying to protect Brazil’s democracy by strengthening its voting systems.Among the officials interviewed, there was broad disagreement over whether the right-wing president was driven by genuine concern about fraud or just fear of losing. Mr. Bolsonaro has consistently trailed former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist, in opinion surveys; if no one wins a majority of the vote on Oct. 2, a runoff is scheduled for Oct. 30.Mr. Bolsonaro trails the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesYet there are increasing hopes for a smooth transition of power if Mr. Bolsonaro loses — because he now appears open to a truce.His allies, including top officials in the armed forces, are about to begin negotiations with Mr. de Moraes about changes to Brazil’s election system designed to address the president’s security critiques, according to three federal judges and one senior administration official close to the planned talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are confidential.The idea is that Mr. Bolsonaro would back off his attacks on the voting machines, these people said, if election officials agreed to some changes requested by Brazil’s military. More