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      Leftists Are Ascendant in Latin America as Key Elections Loom

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      Growing inequality and sputtering economies have helped fuel a wave of leftist victories that may soon extend to Brazil and Colombia.RIO DE JANEIRO — In the final weeks of 2021, Chile and Honduras voted decisively for leftist presidents to replace leaders on the right, extending a significant, multiyear shift across Latin America.This year, leftist politicians are the favorites to win presidential elections in Colombia and Brazil, taking over from right-wing incumbents, which would put the left and center-left in power in the six largest economies in the region, stretching from Tijuana to Tierra del Fuego.Economic suffering, widening inequality, fervent anti-incumbent sentiment and mismanagement of Covid-19 have all fueled a pendulum swing away from the center-right and right-wing leaders who were dominant a few years ago.The left has promised more equitable distribution of wealth, better public services and vastly expanded social safety nets. But the region’s new leaders face serious economic constraints and legislative opposition that could restrict their ambitions, and restive voters who have been willing to punish whoever fails to deliver.The left’s gains could buoy China and undermine the United States as they compete for regional influence, analysts say, with a new crop of Latin American leaders who are desperate for economic development and more open to Beijing’s global strategy of offering loans and infrastructure investment. The change could also make it harder for the United States to continue isolating authoritarian leftist regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.With rising inflation and stagnant economies, Latin America’s new leaders will find it hard to deliver real change on profound problems, said Pedro Mendes Loureiro, a professor of Latin American studies at the University of Cambridge. To some extent, he said, voters are “electing the left simply because it is the opposition at the moment.”Poverty is at a 20-year high in a region where a short-lived commodities boom had enabled millions to ascend into the middle class after the turn of the century. Several nations now face double-digit unemployment, and more than 50 percent of workers in the region are employed in the informal sector.Corruption scandals, dilapidated infrastructure and chronically underfunded health and education systems have eroded faith in leaders and public institutions.Homeless people lining up to receive lunch from volunteers in São Paulo in August. “The issue now is the frustration, the class system, the stratification,” one analyst said.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesUnlike the early 2000s, when leftists won critical presidencies in Latin America, the new officeholders are saddled by debt, lean budgets, scant access to credit and in many cases, vociferous opposition.Eric Hershberg, the director of the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University, said the left’s winning streak is born out of widespread indignation.“This is really about lower-middle-class and working-class sectors saying, ‘Thirty years into democracy, and we still have to ride a decrepit bus for two hours to get to a bad health clinic,’” Mr. Hershberg said. He cited frustration, anger and “a generalized sense that elites have enriched themselves, been corrupt, have not been operating in the public interest.”Covid has ravaged Latin America and devastated economies that were already precarious, but the region’s political tilt started before the pandemic.Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s leftist ex-leader, has a sizable advantage over Mr. Bolsonaro in a head-to-head matchup, according to a recent poll.Mauro Pimentel/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe first milestone was the election in Mexico of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who won the presidency by a landslide in July 2018. He declared during his election night address: “The state will cease being a committee at the service of a minority and it will represent all Mexicans, poor and rich.”The next year, voters in Panama and Guatemala elected left-of-center governments, and Argentina’s Peronist movement made a stunning comeback despite its leaders’ legacy of corruption and economic mismanagement. President Alberto Fernández, a university professor, celebrated his triumph over a conservative incumbent by promising “to build the Argentina we deserve.”In 2020, Luis Arce trounced conservative rivals to become president of Bolivia. He vowed to build on the legacy of the former leader Evo Morales, a socialist whose ouster the year before had briefly left the nation in the hands of a right-wing president.Last April, Pedro Castillo, a provincial schoolteacher, shocked Peru’s political establishment by narrowly defeating the right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori for the presidency. Mr. Castillo, a political newcomer, railed against elites and presented his life story — an educator who worked in a rural school without running water or a sewage system — as an embodiment of their failings.In Honduras, Xiomara Castro, a socialist who proposed a system of universal basic income for poor families, handily beat a conservative rival in November to become president-elect.Xiomara Castro, who won election in Honduras, has proposed a system of universal basic income for poor families.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesThe most recent win for the left came last month in Chile, where Gabriel Boric, a 35-year-old former student activist, beat a far-right rival by promising to raise taxes on the rich in order to offer more generous pensions and vastly expand social services.The trend has not been universal. In the past three years, voters in El Salvador, Uruguay and Ecuador have moved their governments rightward. And in Mexico and Argentina last year, left-of-center parties lost ground in legislative elections, undercutting their presidents.But on the whole, Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College, said that in his memory there had never been a Latin America “as dominated by a combination of leftists and anti-U. S. populist leaders.”“Across the region, leftist governments will be particularly willing to work with the Chinese on government-to-government contracts,” he said, and possibly “with respect to security collaboration as well as technology collaboration.”Jennifer Pribble, a political science professor at the University of Richmond who studies Latin America, said the brutal toll of the pandemic in the region made leftist initiatives such as cash transfers and universal health care increasingly popular.“Latin American voters now have a keener sense of what the state can do and of the importance of the state engaging in a redistributive effort and in providing public services,” she said. “That shapes these elections, and clearly the left can speak more directly to that than the right.”Gabriel Boric, a former student activist, has promised a vast expansion of social services in Chile. Marcelo Hernandez/Getty ImagesIn Colombia, where a presidential election is set for May, Gustavo Petro, a leftist former mayor of Bogotá who once belonged to an urban guerrilla group, has held a consistent lead in polls.Sergio Guzmán, the director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a consulting firm, said Mr. Petro’s presidential aspirations became viable after most fighters from the FARC, a Marxist guerrilla group, laid down their weapons as part of a peace deal struck in 2016. The conflict long dominated Colombian politics, but no more.“The issue now is the frustration, the class system, the stratification, the haves and have-nots,” he said.Just before Christmas, Sonia Sierra, 50, stood outside the small coffee shop she runs in Bogotá’s main urban park. Her earnings had plummeted, she said, first amid the pandemic, and then when a community displaced by violence moved into the park.Ms. Sierra said she was deep in debt after her husband was hospitalized with Covid. Finances are so tight, she recently let go her only employee, a young woman from Venezuela who earned just $7.50 a day.“So much work and nothing to show for it,” Ms. Sierra she said, singing a verse from a song popular at Christmastime in Colombia. “I’m not crying, but yes, it hurts.”In Recife, Brazil, supplementing income by harvesting shellfish.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesIn neighboring Brazil, rising poverty, inflation and a bungled response to the pandemic have made President Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent, an underdog in the vote set for October.Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist firebrand who governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010, an era of remarkable prosperity, has built a 30 percentage point advantage over Mr. Bolsonaro in a head-to-head matchup, according to a recent poll.Maurício Pimenta da Silva, 31, an assistant manager at a farming supplies store in the São Lourenço region of Rio de Janeiro state, said that he regretted voting for Mr. Bolsonaro in 2018, and that he intended to support Mr. da Silva.“I thought Bolsonaro would improve our life in some aspects, but he didn’t,” said Mr. Pimenta, a father of four who is no relation to the former president. “Everything is so expensive in the supermarkets, especially meat,” he added, prompting him to take a second job.With voters facing so much upheaval, moderate candidates are gaining little traction, lamented Simone Tebet, a center-right senator in Brazil who plans to run for president.“If you look at Brazil and Latin America, we are living in a relatively frightening cycle of extremes,” she said. “Radicalism and populism have taken over.”Ernesto Londoño and Flávia Milhorance reported from Rio de Janeiro. Julie Turkewitz reported from Bogotá. More

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      La inflación pone en aprietos a los líderes populistas de derecha

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      Los líderes de Turquía, Hungría y Brasil enfrentan problemas generados por el aumento global de precios antes de los comicios nacionales.Para todos aquellos que serían un desafío para Jair Bolsonaro en la próxima elección presidencial, incluida la prensa, el Supremo Tribunal Federal y los liberales, el aguerrido líder de derecha tiene una respuesta: “Solo Dios me saca de aquí”.Pero Bolsonaro podría perder el poder debido a una dificultad inesperada y para la cual su manual político no tiene una respuesta fácil: la inflación.En Brasil, un país con antecedentes relativamente recientes de episodios inflacionarios desastrosos, los precios suben a los niveles más altos de las últimas dos décadas. La moneda ha ido perdiendo su valor constantemente, al depreciarse alrededor del 10 por ciento contra el dólar solo en los últimos seis meses. Y su economía, la mayor de América Latina, volvió a entrar en recesión en el tercer trimestre del año.Eso ha inquietado a personas como Lucia Regina da Silva, una asistente de enfermería retirada de 65 años de edad que solía apoyar a Bolsonaro. Ha visto cómo en el último año los precios al alza han erosionado el poder de compra de su humilde pensión mensual.“Yo creía que este gobierno mejoraría nuestra vida”, dijo Da Silva en una mañana reciente, mientras empujaba un carrito de supermercado casi vacío —algunas verduras y artículos de uso personal era todo lo que le alcanzaba— por los pasillos de Campeão, una cadena de supermercados económicos de Río de Janeiro. “Pero esto fue un error”.Bolsonaro forma parte de una generación de populistas de derecha que, en la última década y media han ascendido al poder en democracias como Turquía, Brasil y Hungría y cuyos mandatos han coincidido, al menos en principio, con periodos de sólido desempeño económico en sus países. Han permanecido en el poder azuzando las pasiones nacionalistas y causando profundas divisiones en el electorado con temas culturales candentes. En el camino se han apropiado de los medios y amedrentan a sus oponentes.Ahora estos líderes autoritarios —entre ellos Bolsonaro, el primer ministro de Hungría Viktor Orban y el presidente de Turquía Recep Tayyip Erdogan— batallan con el alza de los precios y enfrentan elecciones nacionales en los próximos dos años. La inflación, un peligro nuevo e inesperado, amenaza con organizar y animar a la oposición política en los países de estos tres líderes de un modo que pocos habrían predicho hace unos meses.En Hungría, donde los precios al consumidor aumentan a la mayor velocidad desde 2007, los sondeos sugieren que Orban enfrentará su elección más dura el próximo año, cuando el costo de vida y los bajos salarios serán las principales preocupaciones para los votantes.En Hungría, las encuestas sugieren que el primer ministro Viktor Orban se enfrentará a las elecciones más difíciles de su historia el próximo año, pues el costo de la vida y los bajos salarios se convierten en las principales preocupaciones.Foto de consorcio por John ThysLos votantes en la cercana República Checa —que ha enfrentado una inflación creciente y elevados costos de energía—acaban de sacar del poder por un estrecho margen a Andrej Babis, el primer ministro multimillonario populista y de derecha del país.La situación de Bolsonaro, cuyo gobierno ha sido muy afectado por la gestión de la crisis de covid, se ha tambaleado y las encuestas lo muestran muy por detrás de quien probablemente sea su contendiente en 2022, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.En preparación, Bolsonaro ha empezado a poner los cimientos para disputar los resultados de la votación del año entrante, que los sondeos sugieren que perdería si se realizara hoy. “Quiero decirles a aquellos que quieren lograr que en Brasil no me elijan, que solo Dios me quitará”, le dijo a una multitud entusiasta en Sao Paulo en septiembre.Pero Da Silva ya ha incorporado la crisis económica a su incipiente campaña. “El gobierno de Bolsonaro es responsable de la inflación”, dijo en una entrevista. “La inflación está fuera de control”.La situación es más seria en Turquía, donde las políticas económicas poco ortodoxas del presidente Erdogan han desatado una crisis monetaria total. El valor de la lira se colapsó aproximadamente 45 por ciento este año. Y los precios aumentan a una tasa oficial de más de 20 por ciento anual, una cantidad que los cálculos extraoficiales ubican en un porcentaje mayor.Los países con líderes derechistas no son los únicos que se tambalean por la inflación. En Estados Unidos los precios aumentan a la mayor velocidad registrada desde 1982. Y los populistas de izquierda, como los que gobiernan en Argentina, también compiten contra feroces corrientes inflacionarias, que los tienen a la defensiva.El repunte representa una ruptura repentina con la tendencia de crecimiento lento e inflación moderada que dominó la economía mundial durante aproximadamente una docena de años antes del impacto de la pandemia. Ese telón de fondo de bajo crecimiento permitió a los poderosos bancos centrales de Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y el Reino Unido mantener bajas las tasas de interés. Y esas decisiones tuvieron grandes implicaciones para los países más pobres de todo el mundo.Eso se debe a que las políticas de bajo interés formuladas por los bancos centrales, entre ellos la Reserva Federal, reducen los retornos que los inversionistas en los países ricos pueden conseguir al comprar bonos del gobierno en sus países de origen, lo que los impulsa a emprender inversiones más arriesgadas en mercados emergentes que prometen mayores retornos.Los economistas dicen que el flujo de dinero hacia los países en desarrollo podría haber sido un elemento poco apreciado del éxito del que han gozado los líderes populistas de derecha en años recientes, pues les brindó un viento económico favorable que coincidió con sus mandatos.Turquía, que en 2009 sufrió una aguda recesión, pudo recuperarse de una manera relativamente rápida gracias a un auge de préstamos de inversionistas extranjeros que le dieron un gran impulso al crecimiento. La elección de Bolsonaro en 2018 coincidió con un renovado impulso para disminuir las tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal, lo que llevó a los inversionistas estadounidenses a comprar más deuda de mercados emergentes y ayudar a levantar el real.“Desde la recesión financiera global, el ambiente macroeconómico global fue una bendición para los autoritarios”, dijo Daron Acemoglu, profesor de economía en el Instituto Massachusetts de Tecnología que ha estudiado el deterioro de las democracias. “Básicamente, con tasas de interés muy bajas, hizo que muchos países que ya tenían o democracias débiles o semi autoritarismos, o francos autoritarismos, siguieran siendo atractivos para el capital extranjero”.Pero cuando la economía global empezó a recuperarse de la pandemia este año, una combinación de perturbaciones en la cadena de suministro, la impresión de moneda de los bancos centrales y el gasto público dirigido a aprovechar la recuperación dieron lugar a un alto incremento en los precios de todo el mundo. Esto hizo que los líderes de muchos países en desarrollo ajustaran sus políticas y que los inversionistas globales repensaran sus inversiones en esos mercados.Claudia Calich, líder de deuda en mercados emergentes en M&G Investments en Londres, ha invertido en bonos gubernamentales turcos, con denominación en liras, durante años. Pero, según Calich, el aumento en la presión pública que Erdogan ejerció este año en el banco central para recortar las tasas de interés ocasionó que el fondo se deshiciera de toda su inversión.En Turquía, liderada por el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan, el valor de la lira ha perdido alrededor del 45 por ciento este año y los precios aumentan a una tasa oficial de más del 20 por ciento anual.Burhan Ozbilici/Associated Press“Tan pronto como empezamos a ver este año que los cambios iban en la dirección equivocada, es decir hacia una mayor reducción de tasas, entonces nos empezó a preocupar la moneda”, dijo Calich. “Esta ha sido, hasta ahora, la respuesta equivocada en materia de políticas. Y sí, hemos estado muy contentos de salirnos de esa posición”.Hay pocas opciones políticamente aceptables para los países de mercados emergentes que se enfrentan a un repunte inflacionario y al debilitamiento de las monedas. Pero por varias razones, el aumento inflacionario es un terreno político especialmente complicado para populistas como los señores Orban, Erdogan y Bolsonaro, quienes se enfrentan a elecciones en 2022 o 2023.Su enfoque personalista de la política —y el hecho de que todos llevan años en el poder— dificulta que intenten evadir la culpa por las condiciones económicas. Al mismo tiempo, su tipo de populismo, que enfatiza las rivalidades nacionalistas y en el pasado ha dado resultados, puede parecer fuera de la realidad para los ciudadanos cuyo nivel de vida se desploma rápidamente.El remedio tradicional para la inflación requeriría una combinación de tasas de interés más elevadas por parte del banco central y menor gasto público. Pero ambas medidas podrían afectar el crecimiento económico y el empleo, al menos el corto plazo, lo que podría empeorar las perspectivas de reelección.En Turquía, Erdogan —que ha adoptado un estilo de liderazgo cada vez más autoritario desde que sobrevivió a un intento de golpe en 2016— ha descartado una respuesta convencional. En semanas recientes, el Banco Central de la República de Turquía, que Erdogan básicamente controla personalmente, ha recortado las tasas de interés repetidamente.La mayoría de los observadores consideran que Erdogan ha empeorado una situación de por sí difícil, pues la perspectiva de más recortes a las tasas de interés y el declive monetario ha hecho que los inversionistas extranjeros retiren su dinero de Turquía.Al mismo tiempo, los vientos políticos también parecen soplar en contra de Erdogan. La situación económica que cada vez está peor ha motivado algunas protestas callejeras dispersas. Los políticos de oposición piden unas elecciones anticipadas para lidiar con la crisis mientras insisten en criticar a Erdogan por lo que dicen que ha sido una gestión económica desastrosa.Orban y Bolsonaro, quienes alguna vez se perfilaron como conservadores al formular los presupuestos, han abandonado sus posiciones anteriores. En cambio, están impulsando un aumento a corto plazo del gasto gubernamental para proporcionar una entrada de efectivo a los votantes antes de las elecciones del próximo año. Sin embargo, no está claro que este enfoque ayude, ya que es probable que empeore las presiones inflacionarias.Una tarde reciente, sentado en una banca de un mercado local de productores en Budapest, Marton Varjai, de 68 años, se reía del cheque por aproximadamente 250 dólares que Orban le había enviado hace poco como parte de un pago que el gobierno autorizó para todos los pensionados, que representan un 20 por ciento de la población.Varjai cobra una pensión mensual de aproximadamente 358 dólares, de los cuales destina el 85 por ciento al pago de medicinas y servicios. “El resto es lo que tengo para vivir”, dijo y añadió que le preocupaba que le alcanzara para llegar a fin de mes.Estos sentimientos se están convirtiendo en un foco cada vez más importante para los votantes húngaros. Un estudio reciente de Policy Solutions, un grupo progresista de expertos en Budapest, encontró que los húngaros están más preocupados por el costo de la vida y los bajos salarios.“Si estos temas dominan las campañas, no será bueno para Fidesz”, dijo Andras Biro-Nagy, director de Policy Solutions, en referencia al partido oficialista de Orban.Matt Phillips cubre mercados financieros. Antes de integrarse a The New York Times en 2018, fue editor jefe de Vice Money e integrante fundador del personal en Quartz, el sitio de negocios y economía. Pasó siete años en The Wall Street, donde cubría mercados bursátiles y de bonos. @MatthewPhillipsCarlotta Gall es la jefa del buró de Istanbul y cubre Turquía. Previamente ha reportado sobre los efectos de la Primavera Árabe desde Túnez, de los Balcanes durante la guerra en Kosovo y Serbia y ha cubierto Afganistán y Pakistán. @carlottagall • Facebook More

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      Inflationary Wave Changes Political Terrain for Right-Wing Populists

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      The leaders of Turkey, Hungary and Brazil are all grappling with problems posed by the global rise in prices ahead of national elections.To all those who would pose a challenge to Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil’s coming presidential election, including the press, the Supreme Court and liberals, the embattled right-wing leader has an answer: “Only God removes me.”But Mr. Bolsonaro might be unseated by an unexpected problem that his political playbook has no easy answer for: inflation.Prices are climbing faster than they have in almost two decades in Brazil, a country with a relatively recent history of disastrous inflationary episodes. The currency has steadily declined in value, losing roughly 10 percent against the dollar in the last six months alone. And the economy, Latin America’s largest, slipped back into recession in the third quarter.That has upset people like Lucia Regina da Silva. A 65-year-old retired nursing assistant and former Bolsonaro supporter, she has watched over the last year as surging prices have eroded the purchasing power of her modest monthly pension.“I believed this government would improve our lives,” said Ms. da Silva on a recent morning as she pushed a mostly empty shopping cart — a few vegetables and some personal products were all she could afford — through the aisles of Campeão, a cheap supermarket chain in Rio de Janeiro. “But that was flawed.”Mr. Bolsonaro is among a generation of right-wing populists who, in the past decade and a half, have risen to power in democracies like Turkey, Brazil and Hungary, and whose reigns have coincided, at least at first, with periods of solid economic performance in those countries. They have remained in power by stoking nationalist passions and driving deep wedges into the electorate with hot-button cultural issues. Along the way, they have co-opted the news media and cowed opponents.Now these strongmen — including Mr. Bolsonaro, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey — are grappling with rising prices, even as they face national elections within the next two years. A new and unexpected peril, inflation is threatening to organize and animate political opposition in the countries of these three leaders in a way few would have predicted just a few months ago.In Hungary, where consumer prices are rising at their fastest pace since 2007, polls suggest that Mr. Orban will face his toughest election ever next year, as the cost of living and low wages become top concerns for voters.In Hungary, polls suggest that Prime Minister Viktor Orban will face his toughest election ever next year as the cost of living and low wages become top concerns.Pool photo by John ThysVoters in the nearby Czech Republic — which has faced rising inflation and soaring energy costs — just ousted Andrej Babis, the country’s billionaire right-wing populist prime minister, by a narrow margin.Mr. Bolsonaro’s standing, already damaged by his administration’s management of the Covid crisis, has tumbled, with polls showing him badly trailing his likely 2022 opponent, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.In anticipation, Mr. Bolsonaro has begun laying the groundwork to dispute the results of next year’s vote, which the polls suggest he would lose badly if it were held today. “I want to tell those who want to make me unelectable in Brazil, only God removes me,” he told a cheering crowd in São Paulo in September.But Mr. da Silva has already incorporated the economic crisis into his recent campaign. “The Bolsonaro government is responsible for inflation,” he said in an interview. “Inflation is out of control.”The situation is most dire in Turkey, where the unorthodox economic policies of President Erdogan have set off a full-on currency crisis. The value of the lira has collapsed roughly 45 percent this year. And prices are now rising at an official rate of more than 20 percent annually, with some unofficial estimates even higher.Countries with right-wing populist leaders aren’t the only ones reeling from inflation. In the United States, prices are rising at their fastest rate since 1982. And left-leaning populists, such as those in power in Argentina, are also contending with fierce inflationary currents, which have put them on the defensive.The upsurge represents a sudden break from the trend of sluggish growth and tepid inflation that dominated the global economy for roughly a dozen years before the pandemic hit. That low-growth backdrop allowed powerful central banks in the United States, the European Union and Britain to keep interest rates low. And those decisions had large implications for poorer countries around the world.That’s because the low-rate policies made by central banks such as the Federal Reserve reduce the returns investors in wealthy nations can make by buying safe government bonds in their home countries, pushing them into riskier investments in emerging markets that promise higher returns.Economists say that flow of money toward developing nations might have been an underappreciated element of the success right-wing populist leaders have enjoyed in recent years, as it provided a steadily favorable economic tailwind that coincided with their time in power.Turkey, which suffered a sharp recession in 2009, was able to rebound relatively quickly thanks to a surge of borrowing from foreign investors that supercharged growth. Mr. Bolsonaro’s election in 2018 coincided with a fresh push to lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which prompted U.S. investors to buy more emerging market debt and helped prop up the real.“Since the global financial recession, the global macroeconomic environment was a godsend to authoritarians,” said Daron Acemoglu, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has studied the deterioration of democracies. “Essentially, with very low interest rates, it made many countries that had either weak democracies or semi-authoritarianism, or sometimes fully fledged authoritarianism, still attractive to foreign capital.”But as the global economy began to heal from the pandemic this year, a combination of supply chain disruptions, central bank money-printing and government spending aimed at juicing the recovery ignited a sharp rise in prices around the world. That prompted leaders in many developing countries to tweak their policies — and global investors to rethink their investments in those markets.Claudia Calich, the head of emerging market debt at M&G Investments in London, has invested in Turkish government bonds, denominated in lira, for years. But, Ms. Calich said, the increasing public pressure that Mr. Erdogan was putting on the country’s central bank to cut interest rates this year led the fund to sell its entire position.In Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the value of the lira has lost about 45 percent this year, and prices are rising at an official rate of more than 20 percent annually.Burhan Ozbilici/Associated Press“As soon as we started seeing the changes this year going in the wrong direction, namely for further rate reductions, then we started getting worried about the currency,” Ms. Calich said. “That has been, so far, the wrong policy response. And yeah, we’ve been very happy to have exited that position.”There are few politically palatable options for emerging market countries dealing with an inflationary upsurge and weakening currencies. But for a number of reasons, the inflationary rise is especially tricky political terrain for populists like Messrs. Orban, Erdogan and Bolsonaro, who all face elections in 2022 or 2023.Their personalized approach to politics — and the fact that they have all been in office for years — makes it difficult for them to sidestep blame for the condition of the economy. At the same time, their brand of populism, which emphasizes nationalist rivalries and has been effective in the past, can seem out of touch to citizens whose standards of living are swiftly plummeting.The traditional remedy for inflation would call for some combination of higher interest rates from the central bank and skimpier government spending. But both moves would probably hurt economic growth and employment, at least in the short term, potentially worsening prospects of re-election.In Turkey, Mr. Erdogan — who has adopted an increasingly authoritarian leadership style since surviving a coup attempt in 2016 — has ruled out such a conventional response. In recent weeks, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, essentially under Mr. Erdogan’s personal control, has repeatedly cut interest rates.Most observers think Mr. Erdogan has made a difficult situation much worse, with the prospect of more interest rate cuts and currency declines driving foreign investors to pull their money from Turkey.At the same time, the political winds also seem to be blowing against Mr. Erdogan. The worsening economic situation has prompted scattered street protests. Opposition politicians are calling for snap elections to deal with the crisis, while hammering Mr. Erdogan for what they call his disastrous management of the economy.Mr. Orban and Mr. Bolsonaro, both of whom once fashioned themselves as conservative budgeteers, have abandoned their previous positions. Instead, they are pushing a short-term surge of spending to provide an influx of cash to voters ahead of next year’s elections. It’s unclear that such an approach will help, however, as it is likely to make inflationary pressures worse.Sitting on a bench at a local farmers market in Budapest on a recent afternoon, Marton Varjai, 68, laughed at the $250 check Mr. Orban recently sent him, part of a payout his government authorized to all pensioners, who amount to roughly 20 percent of the population.Mr. Varjai earns a monthly pension of about $358, of which 85 percent goes to covering medicine and utilities. “The rest is what I have to live off,” he said, adding that he was concerned about his ability to make ends meet.Such sentiments are becoming an increasing focus for Hungarian voters. A recent study by Policy Solutions, a progressive think tank in Budapest, found that Hungarians are most concerned with the cost of living and low wages.“If these issues dominate the campaign, it’s not good for Fidesz,” said Andras Biro-Nagy, director of Policy Solutions, referring to Mr. Orban’s ruling party. More

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      Lula prepara un regreso. ¿Convencerá a Brasil?

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      El expresidente brasileño Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ha logrado dejar atrás una serie de acusaciones de corrupción y encabeza la lucha por la presidencia del año entrante.RECIFE, Brasil — El antiguo limpiabotas que llegó a la presidencia dejó el cargo hace poco más de una década con la popularidad de una estrella de rock. Era la encarnación de una nación que parecía estar en la cúspide de la grandeza.La caída de ese presidente, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, y de su país, Brasil, fue igual de dramática. Un escándalo de corrupción lo llevó a la cárcel y puso de manifiesto las irregularidades y los errores de cálculo que contribuyeron a frenar una era de prosperidad, abatiendo a la mayor economía de América Latina y poniendo en marcha un periodo de turbulencias políticas.Ahora Lula, como todos lo conocen, ha vuelto.Una serie de victorias judiciales lo han liberado y le han devuelto su derecho a postularse a la presidencia, lo que le ha permitido a da Silva volver a argumentar que él es el único camino a seguir para una nación que lucha contra el aumento del hambre, la pobreza y una división política cada vez más profunda.“Tenemos total certeza de que es posible reconstruir el país”, afirmó recientemente.Personas sin hogar hacían fila para recibir alimentos de los voluntarios de un grupo religioso en Sao Paulo. La cantidad de personas que vivía en pobreza en Brasil se triplicó de 9,7 millones en 2020 a 27 millones en 2021.Mauricio Lima para The New York TimesUn retorno al poder sería un regreso sorprendente para Da Silva, de 76 años, cuya épica carrera política ha sido paralela al destino de Brasil. Empezó como líder sindical y alcanzó la fama con el movimiento que puso fin a la dictadura brasileña de 1964 a 1985. Después de perder tres veces las elecciones presidenciales, ganó en 2002 y condujo a la nación a un periodo de abundancia económica y prestigio internacional, cuando Brasil fue elegido para dar una fiesta al mundo como anfitrión de la Copa Mundial y los Juegos Olímpicos.Los votantes le dan una amplia ventaja en la contienda presidencial del año entrante, señal de que para millones de personas el recuerdo de un Brasil próspero y en ascenso tiene más peso que su recelo ante la corrupción endémica que empañó el legado de Da Silva.El cálido recibimiento que le dieron los presidentes de España y Francia en un viaje reciente a Europa dejó en claro que otros líderes también podrían sentir nostalgia por el Brasil de antaño.Pero lograr una victoria podría depender de su capacidad para reformular el relato de por qué Brasil se derrumbó de forma tan espectacular tras su presidencia.Aunque millones de brasileños salieron de la pobreza y la desigualdad bajo su mandato, muchos de los proyectos que Da Silva puso en marcha, según los críticos, eran insostenibles, suponían un despilfarro y estaban contaminados por la corrupción.“No hicieron lo que era necesario para el país, sino lo que era necesario para mantenerse en el poder”, comentó Marina Silva, exministra de Medio Ambiente del gobierno de Da Silva, que dimitió por desacuerdos con el enfoque de gobierno del presidente. “El fin justificaba los medios”.Marina Silva, exministra de Medio Ambiente del gabinete de Lula Da Silva, renunció en 2009 tras desacuerdos con el enfoque del presidente.Gabriela Portilho para The New York TimesDa Silva no asumió ninguna responsabilidad por la recesión ni por el enorme escándalo de sobornos que golpeó a Brasil durante años después de que dejara el cargo. Y los brasileños volcaron su ira contra la sucesora elegida personalmente por Da Silva, Dilma Rousseff, que fue destituida en 2016 por el traslado indebido de fondos públicos en un intento por maquillar el estado de la economía antes de su reelección.Dos años después, el país eligió a Jair Bolsonaro, un excapitán del ejército de extrema derecha que se presentó como el polo opuesto a Da Silva, alabando la dictadura y prometiendo mano dura contra la corrupción y el crimen.Ahora, Bolsonaro se enfrenta a un torrente de escándalos, su gobierno está envuelto en investigaciones, su popularidad disminuye, y Da Silva se presenta como la salvación de Brasil.Para entender el potencial de Da Silva, por qué se desintegró y si su regreso podría ofrecer la estabilidad y el crecimiento que los brasileños ansían, ayuda visitar una pequeña comunidad portuaria de pescadores artesanales que Da Silva soñaba con convertir en un próspero centro manufacturero.‘La industria naval brasileña ha llegado para quedarse’Trabajadores del puerto restauran un barco en el astillero Atlântico Sul como parte del proyecto Puerto Suape.Mauricio Lima para The New York TimesCuando Da Silva asumió el cargo en 2003, la economía brasileña había logrado frenar la inflación y disfrutaba de un auge de materias primas, lo que le daba al gobierno un grado de flexibilidad fiscal muy inusual. De inmediato puso en marcha ambiciosos planes para recompensar al noreste, su lugar de nacimiento y un bastión electoral que alberga a poco más de una cuarta parte de la población del país, pero casi la mitad de sus pobres.Hijo de trabajadores agrícolas analfabetos, Da Silva, que creció en una pequeña choza sin electricidad ni cañerías, vio la oportunidad de transformar a las familias como la suya invirtiendo a manos llenas en industrias generadoras de empleo.El Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Económico y Social, gestionado por el gobierno, autorizó un préstamo de 1900 millones de dólares para un ferrocarril de 1754 kilómetros que conectaría el corazón agrícola con dos puertos, uno de ellos justo al sur de Recife, la ciudad más grande del noreste y la capital del estado de Pernambuco.El astillero Atlântico Sul, visto desde la isla abandonada de Tatuoca, que fue privatizada y cuyos residentes fueron retirados de sus hogares por las obras en el proyecto portuario de Suape. Mauricio Lima para The New York TimesJunto a la zona portuaria de Recife —en el extremo oriental del continente, con fácil acceso a los mercados europeos y africanos— se iniciaron dos proyectos de gran envergadura. Una nueva refinería señalaba la ambición de Brasil de convertirse en un gran productor de petróleo. Los planes para un astillero, Estaleiro Atlântico Sul, presumían que sería el mayor y más moderno del hemisferio sur.“La industria naval brasileña ha llegado para quedarse”, proclamó Da Silva en 2005, esbozando planes para una red de astilleros. “Brasil se está preparando para los próximos diez años: crecimiento crecimiento crecimiento”.El frenesí de la construcción fue bien recibido por los residentes de la isla de Tatuoca, una pequeña comunidad de pescadores artesanales de la zona. Las obras, dijeron, les permitieron mejorar sus chozas con lujos que antes habían estado fuera de su alcance.José Rodrigo da Silva, un extrabajador del puerto, pesca cerca de su casa en Suape.Mauricio Lima para The New York Times“Era una buena vida, con buenos muebles, televisores y equipos de música”, recordó José Rodrigo da Silva, un pescador nacido en la isla.El gobierno de Lula Da Silva creó un popurrí de aranceles e incentivos financieros para que los astilleros consiguieran contratos por miles de millones de dólares, asegurando así trabajo durante al menos dos décadas.“El plan era usar la industria naval para generar empleos en el nordeste”, dijo Nicole Terpins, presidenta del astillero cerca de Recife.Pero había muchos motivos para el escepticismo, comentó Ecio Costa, economista en la Universidad Federal de Pernambuco.Un trabajador del puerto en el astillero Atlântico Sul.Mauricio Lima para The New York Times“No había mano de obra capacitada, no había suministros”, dijo. “Para construir barcos hace falta toda una cadena de suministro, un sector tecnológico, y nada de eso sucede de la noche a la mañana”.Las 75 familias que vivían en la isla de Tatuoca empezaron a cuestionar los beneficios de la ampliación del puerto en 2009, cuando una draga empezó a arrancar trozos del lecho marino para dar cabida a grandes barcos.“Comenzó la devastación”, comentó el pescador Da Silva. “Desaparecieron los cangrejos, los peces, todo empezó a morir, y ya no teníamos forma de llegar a fin de mes”.En 2010, a los residentes de la isla les dijeron que serían desalojados para dar paso a la expansión de las operaciones de construcción naval. Todos acabaron por abandonar sus hogares en la isla a cambio de modestas pagas y simples casas adosadas en el territorio continental.“Muchos de los que vivían allí no sabían qué era una calle”, afirmó el pescador de 37 años. “Nos prohibieron volver a Tatuoca”.Un camino en la isla Tatuoca, que fue abandonada para dejar el paso libre al proyecto de Puerto Suape y el astillero Atlântico Sul.Mauricio Lima para The New York Times‘Podemos ser un gran país’El desplazamiento forzoso fue visto por casi todos como parte del precio que hay que pagar por el crecimiento de una nación en ascenso.Los empleos en Pernambuco de pronto eran abundantes, y más brasileños podían acceder a ellos. Las inversiones en educación y los nuevos programas de discriminación positiva permitieron que un número sin precedentes de brasileños negros fueran a la universidad.En 2007, el descubrimiento de vastas reservas de petróleo en alta mar llevó a un extasiado Da Silva a proclamar, en un discurso: “Dios es brasileño”.Ese año, el Banco de Desarrollo Brasileño emitió una las mayores líneas de crédito de su historia: 1200 millones de dólares para construir diez buques petroleros. El banco también financió con 252 millones de dólares la construcción del astillero Atlântico Sul, que el banco proyectaba emplearía a alrededor de 5000 personas y crearía 20.000 empleos indirectos.En el escenario internacional Lula Da Silva hacía olas.Ayudó a lanzar una alianza diplomática de las principales economías emergentes que incluía a China, India, Rusia y Sudáfrica. Argumentó ante Naciones Unidas que Brasil merecía más voz y un asiento permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad.Quizá lo que mejor capturó la sensación de posibilidad y euforia del momento fue cuando miles de brasileños estallaron en celebraciones de júbilo en octubre de 2009, después de que Brasil diera la sorpresa en el concurso para organizar los Juegos Olímpicos de 2016. Fue un logro supremo para Da Silva.“Nunca me he sentido más orgulloso de Brasil”, exclamó Da Silva. “Ahora vamos a demostrar al mundo que podemos ser un gran país”.Un grupo de personas se fotografió junto a los aros olímpicos cerca de la Arena de Voleibol Playa en la playa Copacabana durante las Olimpiadas de 2016.Mauricio Lima para The New York Times‘La corrupción se convirtió en un medio para gobernar’Da Silva dejó el cargo a finales de 2010 con un índice de aprobación del 80 por ciento y con Rousseff en posición para continuar su legado.Sin embargo, la mandataria empezó a flaquear cuando los precios de las materias primas cayeron y las facciones del Congreso, conocidas por operar de forma muy transaccional, empezaron a romper filas con el partido gobernante.Rousseff fue reelegida por un estrecho margen en 2014, cuando la economía entró a un periodo de contracción que pronto se convertiría en una profunda recesión. Ese año, las fuerzas del orden federales llevaron a cabo las primeras detenciones del mayor escándalo de corrupción de la historia del país.La presidenta Dilma Rousseff en 2014. Dos años más tarde fue sometida a juicio político, luego de una caída económica y los brasileños se indignaron por las acusaciones de corrupción contra el gobierno de su predecesor.Mauricio Lima para The New York TimesLa investigación sacó a la luz esquemas de sobornos en los que estaban implicados algunos de los políticos más poderosos del país y grandes empresas a las que se les habían concedido miles de millones en contratos gubernamentales. Entre ellas, el gigante petrolero estatal Petrobras —el principal cliente del astillero de Pernambuco— y el coloso de la construcción Odebrecht.Varias personalidades implicadas, entre ellas estrechos colaboradores de Da Silva, llegaron a acuerdos de colaboración con los fiscales a cambio de clemencia. Su cooperación puso de manifiesto el impresionante alcance de los delitos cometidos durante la presidencia de Da Silva, lo que condujo a acuerdos históricos con los fiscales de Brasil y Estados Unidos. Odebrecht aceptó pagar 3500 millones de dólares, el mayor acuerdo en un caso de corrupción extranjero investigado por el Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos, y Petrobras aceptó pagar 853 millones de dólares.Deltan Dallagnol, uno de los fiscales brasileños que dirigió la investigación, dijo en un correo electrónico que los gobiernos de Da Silva y Rousseff permitieron “un patrón de corrupción estructural y sistémica”. Añadió que los miles de millones de dólares que las empresas aceptaron devolver a las arcas del gobierno, así como el testimonio de los acusados que se sinceraron, demostraron “que la corrupción se convirtió en un medio para gobernar el país”.Los investigadores no tardaron en centrarse en Da Silva, que finalmente fue acusado en once causas penales relacionadas con supuestos sobornos y lavado de dinero.Lula Da Silva durante un mitin de campaña en São Paulo en 2017, antes de que fuera a prisión acusado de corrupción.Mauricio Lima para The New York TimesLas crisis política y económica coincidentes allanaron el camino para la destitución de Rousseff y se extendieron por todo el país, destruyendo varios sectores, entre ellos la incipiente industria de construcción naval.El astillero Atlântico Sul se vino abajo. Petrobras canceló de manera abrupta los pedidos de barcos. Su línea de crédito fue suspendida. Y los principales ejecutivos de las dos empresas que lo construyeron se encuentran entre los acusados de corrupción. De la noche a la mañana, miles de constructores navales fueron despedidos.Y no fue un caso aislado para nada, dijo Samuel Pessôa, economista de la Fundación Getulio Vargas en São Paulo.“Todas las iniciativas fracasaron”, dijo de los proyectos emblemáticos de la era Da Silva. “La corrupción no fue el factor principal; eran proyectos mal planeados y la desconexión entre los emprendimientos lanzados y las condiciones de la economía y la sociedad de Brasil”.Jair Bolsonaro en su oficina cuando era legislador federal en 2017. Detrás de él se encuentran los retratos de los líderes de Brasil durante la dictadura militar.Lalo de Almeida para The New York Times‘Prenderle fuego’Cuando los brasileños acudieron a las urnas en 2018, Da Silva estaba en la cárcel, condenado por aceptar renovaciones a un departamento frente al mar como soborno de parte de una empresa constructora.Los proyectos emblemáticos que había emprendido, como el ferrocarril en el noreste y los astilleros, se habían vuelto insolventes y habían quedado paralizados.Un índice de desempleo de dos dígitos y un número récord de homicidios en 2017 hicieron que el electorado se enfadara… y aceptara a un contendiente presidencial disruptivo.Bolsonaro, que había sido un legislador marginal durante décadas, canalizó la rabia de los votantes, presentándose como un político incorruptible. Derrotó fácilmente al candidato del Partido de los Trabajadores, consiguiendo un apoyo impresionante en las regiones pobres, incluida la base de Lula Da Silva en el noreste.El alcalde de Recife, João Campos, que pertenece a un partido de centroizquierda, dijo que tres años después, millones de votantes se han arrepentido de ese voto.Los trabajadores separan materiales para el reciclaje en el barrio Brasília Teimosa, una comunidad de bajos ingresos en Recife.Mauricio Lima para The New York Times“Es como si tuvieras una casa llena de ratas y cucarachas, y la solución que encuentras es prenderle fuego”, explicó Campos. “Eso es lo que hizo Brasil”.Desde que asumió el cargo en enero de 2019, Bolsonaro ha mantenido a Brasil en crisis, buscando peleas con aliados políticos y discutiendo con los jueces del Supremo Tribunal que supervisan las investigaciones sobre su gobierno y miembros de su familia.Bajo su mandato, el desempleo aumentó, millones volvieron a caer en la pobreza, la inflación volvió a ser de dos dígitos y la pandemia mató a más de 600.000 personas.Sondeos de opinión pública muestran que si la elección se realizara ahora, Bolsonaro perdería frente a todos sus posibles rivales.Una pancarta muestra a Bolsonaro como un demonio durante una protesta en julio que pedía enjuiciarlo por su manejo de la pandemia.Mauricio Lima para The New York TimesUn enfrentamiento entre ambos líderes realizado por la encuestadora Datafolha mostró que Da Silva —quien rehusó varios pedidos de entrevista— ganaba por un enorme 56 por ciento frente al 31 por ciento de Bolsonaro.Algunos de los casos penales contra Da Silva se han desbaratado en tanto los protagonistas de la cruzada anticorrupción cayeron en desgracia. Uno de los principales fue Sergio Moro, el juez detrás de la condena que mandó al expresidente a prisión.La imparcialidad de Moro fue cuestionada cuando se unió al gabinete de Bolsonaro como ministro de Justicia y después de que se filtraron mensajes intercambiados con fiscales durante la investigación que mostraban que les había brindado asesoría estratégica de manera ilegal.Al mancharse la reputación otrora intachable del exmagistrado, varias cortes, entre ellas la Suprema Corte de Brasil, emitieron una gran cantidad de fallos a favor de Da Silva. Los fallos, en gran parte procedimentales, no lo exculparon. Pero en la práctica básicamente le otorgaron un expediente legal limpio.Da Silva, a la derecha, de visita en un asentamiento del Movimiento de los Trabajadores Rurales Sin Tierra en el estado de Pernambuco en agosto. Mauricio Lima para The New York Times‘Nos dio prioridad’Ante el torrente de escándalos de la era de Bolsonaro, un electorado que antes estaba ansioso por crucificar a Da Silva y a su partido ha adoptado un enfoque más optimista, dijo John French, un profesor de Historia de la Universidad de Duke que escribió una biografía de Da Silva.“Se les acusó de no haber sido capaces de eliminar el dinero y la corrupción de un sistema político en el que eso siempre ha sido la esencia de la política”, expresó, argumentando que los votantes brasileños, en general, se han resignado al chanchullo político. “Si asumes que todo el mundo es corrupto, la pregunta es: ¿quién se preocupa realmente por ti? ¿Quién siente por ti? ¿Quién es capaz de hacer algo por ti, algo concreto?”.Esas preguntas han hecho que personas como José Rodrigo da Silva, el pescador, se mantengan fieles a Da Silva.El astillero en el que el pescador alguna vez se puso un uniforme con orgullo ahora está invadido de maleza. La oficina de contratación está cerrada y al letrero exterior le faltan varias letras. La empresa ha empezado a reparar barcos para pagar a los acreedores, pero no tiene planes de construirlos.Lleva en el paro desde 2017. Su factura de la luz tiene pagos atrasados de meses. Las aguas residuales sin tratar burbujean a menudo fuera de su casa. Pero sus ojos se iluminaron cuando habló del regreso del expresidente que comparte su apellido.“El periodo en el que más trabajé fue cuando él era presidente”, aseguró. “Todo el mundo roba. Pero él nos dio prioridad”.Lis Moriconi More

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      Brazil’s President Lula Is Staging a Comeback. Can He Bring the Country Along?

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      Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president, has beat back a flurry of corruption cases and climbed to the front of next year’s presidential race.RECIFE, Brazil — The former shoe shine boy who rose to the presidency left office a little more than a decade ago with rock star popularity, the embodiment of a nation that appeared to be on the cusp of greatness.The downfall of that president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and of his country, Brazil, was just as dramatic. A corruption scandal landed him in prison and exposed the malfeasance and miscalculations that helped bring an era of prosperity to a screeching halt, dragging down Latin America’s largest economy and setting in motion a period of political turbulence.Now Lula, as he is universally known, is back.A string of courtroom victories freed him and restored his right to run for office, allowing Mr. da Silva to again make the case that he’s the only way forward for a nation grappling with rising hunger, poverty and a deepening political divide.“We have total certainty that it’s possible to rebuild the country,” he said recently.Homeless people lining up to receive lunch from volunteers from a religious group in São Paulo. In 2021, the number of people in poverty in Brazil tripled to 27 million, from 9.7 million in 2020.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesA return to power would be a stunning comeback for Mr. da Silva, 76, whose epic political career paralleled Brazil’s fortunes. He started as a labor leader and rose to prominence with the movement to end Brazil’s dictatorship of 1964 to 1985. After losing presidential elections three times, he won in 2002, steering the nation through a period of economic plenty and international prestige, when Brazil was tapped to give a party for the world as host of the World Cup and the Olympics.Voters are giving him a broad lead in next year’s presidential race, signaling that for millions, the memories of an ascendant, striving Brazil carry more weight than their reservations over the endemic corruption that marred Mr. da Silva’s legacy.His warm embrace by the presidents of Spain and France during a recent trip to Europe made clear that other leaders may also yearn for the Brazil of yore.But pulling off a victory may hinge on his ability to reframe the story of why Brazil unraveled so spectacularly after his presidency.While millions of Brazilians were lifted from poverty and inequality under his watch, many of the projects Mr. da Silva set in motion, critics argue, were unsustainable, wasteful and tainted by corruption.“They didn’t do what was necessary for the country, but what was necessary to remain in power,” said Marina Silva, a former environment minister in Mr. da Silva’s government who resigned over disagreements with the president’s approach to governance. “The ends justified the means.”Marina Silva, a former environment minister in Mr. da Silva’s cabinet, resigned in 2009 after disagreeing with the president’s approach to governance.Gabriela Portilho for The New York TimesMr. da Silva took no responsibility for the recession or for the huge bribery scandal that battered Brazil for years after he left office. And Brazilians turned their anger against Mr. da Silva’s handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached in 2016 for improperly shifting public funds in an effort to mask the state of the economy before her re-election.Two years later, the country elected Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right former army captain who presented himself as Mr. da Silva’s polar opposite, praising the dictatorship and promising an iron fist against corruption and crime.Now Mr. Bolsonaro is facing a torrent of scandals, his administration ensnarled in investigations and his popularity waning, and Mr. da Silva is presenting himself as Brazil’s salvation.To understand Mr. da Silva’s promise, why it unraveled, and whether his return could deliver the stability and growth Brazilians crave, it helps to visit a small port community of artisanal fishermen that Mr. da Silva dreamed of turning into a flourishing manufacturing hub.‘The Brazilian naval industry is here to stay’Harbor workers restoring a ship at the Atlântico Sul shipyard as part of the Suape harbor project.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesWhen Mr. da Silva took office in 2003, Brazil’s economy had managed to rein in inflation and was enjoying a commodities boom, giving the government a rare degree of fiscal flexibility. He quickly set in motion ambitious plans to reward the northeast, his birthplace and an electoral stronghold that is home to a little more than a quarter of the country’s population but nearly half its poor.The child of illiterate agricultural workers, Mr. da Silva, who grew up in a small shack with no electricity or plumbing, saw an opportunity to transform families like his by investing heavily in job-creating industries.The Brazilian Development Bank, which is run by the government, authorized a loan of $1.9 billion for a 1,090-mile railroad that would connect the agricultural heartland to two ports, including one just south of Recife, the largest city in the northeast and the capital of the state of Pernambuco.The Atlântico Sul shipyard seen from the abandoned Tatuoca island, which was privatized and had its residents removed from their homes for works in the Suape harbor project.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesAlongside the Recife port area — at the easternmost corner of the continent, with easy access to European and African markets — two splashy projects broke ground. A new refinery signaled Brazil’s ambition to become a major oil producer. Plans for a shipyard, Estaleiro Atlântico Sul, boasted it would be the largest and most modern in the Southern Hemisphere.“The Brazilian naval industry is here to stay,” Mr. da Silva proclaimed in 2005, outlining plans for a network of shipyards. “Brazil is preparing for the next 10 years: growth, growth, growth.”The frenzy of construction was welcomed by residents of Tatuoca island, a small community of artisanal fishermen in the area. The jobs, they said, let them upgrade their shacks with luxuries that had been beyond their reach.Rodrigo José da Silva, a former worker at the harbor, fishing near his home in Suape.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times“It was a good life, with nice furniture, television sets, stereos,” recalled José Rodrigo da Silva, a fisherman born on the island.Mr. da Silva’s government created a patchwork of tariffs and financial incentives that let shipbuilders lock in contracts worth billions of dollars, guaranteeing work for at least two decades.“The idea was to use the naval industry to create jobs in the northeast,” said Nicole Terpins, the president of the shipyard near Recife.But there were plenty of reasons to be skeptical, said Ecio Costa, an economist at the Federal University of Pernambuco.A harbor worker at the Atlântico Sul shipyard.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times“You didn’t have the trained labor force, you didn’t have the supplies,” he said. “To build ships you need a whole supply chain, a technology sector, and those things don’t happen overnight.”The 75 families who lived on Tatuoca island began to question the benefits of the port complex expansion in 2009 when a dredger began scooping up chunks of the seabed to accommodate big ships.“The devastation began,” said Mr. da Silva, the fisherman. “Crabs vanished, fish vanished, everything began dying off, and we no longer had a way to make ends meet.”In 2010, residents on the island were told they would be evicted to allow an expansion of shipbuilding operations. All ended up abandoning their island homes in exchange for modest payouts and simple cookie-cutter houses on the mainland.“Many people living there didn’t know what a street was,” said Mr. da Silva, 37. “They prohibited us from returning to Tatuoca.”A path on Tatuoca island, which was abandoned to clear room for the Suape harbor project and its Atlântico Sul shipyard.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times‘We can be a great country’The forced displacement was broadly seen as part of the growing pains of a rising nation.Jobs in Pernambuco were suddenly plentiful and the path to them was open to more Brazilians. Investments in education and new affirmative action programs were enabling an unprecedented number of Black Brazilians to go to college.The discovery of vast offshore oil reserves in 2007 led an ecstatic Mr. da Silva to proclaim, in a speech: “God is Brazilian.”That year, the Brazilian Development Bank issued one of the largest lines of credit in its history: $1.2 billion to build 10 tanker ships. The bank also provided $252 million to build Estaleiro Atlântico Sul, which the bank projected would employ approximately 5,000 people and create 20,000 indirect jobs.On the international stage, Mr. da Silva was making waves.He helped set in motion a diplomatic alliance of major emerging economies that included China, India, Russia and South Africa. At the United Nations, he argued that nations like Brazil deserved a bigger voice — and a permanent seat on the Security Council.The sense of possibility and euphoria was perhaps best captured when thousands of Brazilians erupted in joyous celebrations in October 2009 after Brazil pulled off an upset in the contest to host the 2016 Olympic Games. It was a crowning achievement for Mr. da Silva.“I have never felt more pride in Brazil,” Mr. da Silva exclaimed. “Now we are going to show the world we can be a great country.”People stopped by the Olympic rings next to the Beach Volleyball Arena at Copacabana Beach to take photographs during the 2016 Olympics.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times‘Corruption became a means of governing’Mr. da Silva left office at the end of 2010 with an 80 percent approval rating, and Ms. Rousseff in place to build on his legacy.But she began to flail as commodities prices dropped and factions in Brazil’s notoriously transactional Congress began breaking ranks with the governing party.Ms. Rousseff was narrowly re-elected in 2014 as the economy entered a period of contraction that would soon turn into a deep recession. That year, federal law enforcement officials carried out the first arrests of the biggest corruption scandal in the nation’s history.President Dilma Rousseff in 2014. She was impeached two years later, after the economy soured and Brazilians became angry over accusations of corruption hanging over her predecessor’s government. Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesThe investigation exposed kickback schemes involving some of the country’s most powerful politicians and large companies that were awarded billions in government contracts. They included the state-owned oil giant Petrobras — the main client at the shipyard in Pernambuco — and the construction behemoth Odebrecht.Several prominent figures involved, including close aides to Mr. da Silva, struck deals with prosecutors in exchange for leniency. Their cooperation exposed the stunning extent of the malfeasance that had unfolded during Mr. da Silva’s presidency, which led to historic settlements with prosecutors in Brazil and the United States. Odebrecht agreed to pay $3.5 billion, the largest settlement in a foreign corruption case investigated by the U.S. Justice Department, and Petrobras agreed to pay $853 million.Deltan Dallagnol, one of the Brazilian prosecutors who led the investigation, said in an email that the governments of Mr. da Silva and Ms. Rousseff enabled “a pattern of structural and systemic corruption.” He added that the billions that companies agreed to return to government coffers, and the testimony of defendants who came clean, showed “that corruption became a means of governing the country.”Investigators soon zeroed in on Mr. da Silva, who was ultimately charged in 11 criminal cases involving alleged kickbacks and money laundering.Mr. da Silva during a campaign rally in São Paulo in 2017, before his imprisonment on corruption charges.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesThe overlapping political and economic crises paved the way for the impeachment of Ms. Rousseff and rippled across the country, gutting several sectors — including the budding shipbuilding industry.Estaleiro Atlântico Sul unraveled. Petrobras abruptly canceled ship orders. Its credit line was suspended. And top executives at the two firms that built it were among those charged with corruption. Overnight, thousands of shipbuilders were laid off.It was far from an isolated case, said Samuel Pessôa, an economist at Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.“All the initiatives failed,” he said of the emblematic projects of the da Silva era. “Corruption was not the main factor; it was projects that were poorly planned, and the disconnect between the ventures that were launched and the conditions of Brazil’s economy and society.”Jair Bolsonaro as a federal legislator in his office in 2017. Behind him are the portraits of Brazil’s leaders during the military dictatorship.Lalo de Almeida for The New York Times‘The medicine Brazil found was stronger than the disease’When Brazilians went to the polls in 2018, Mr. da Silva was in jail, convicted of accepting renovations for an oceanfront apartment as a kickback from a construction firm.Landmark projects he had launched, including the railroad in the northeast and the shipyards, had become insolvent and paralyzed.Double-digit unemployment and a record number of homicides in 2017 made the electorate angry — and open to a disruptive presidential contender.Mr. Bolsonaro, who had been a fringe lawmaker for decades, channeled voters’ rage, presenting himself as an incorruptible politician. He easily defeated the Workers’ Party candidate, making an impressive showing in poor regions, including in Mr. da Silva’s home base of the northeast.João Campos, the mayor of Recife, who belongs to a center left party, said that three years later, millions of voters have come to regret that vote.Workers separating collected materials for recycling in Brasília Teimosa neighborhood, a low-income community in Recife.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times“It’s like you have a house with rats and cockroaches, and the solution you find is to set it on fire,” Mr. Campos said. “That’s what Brazil did.”Since he took office in January 2019, Mr. Bolsonaro has kept Brazil in crisis, picking fights with political allies and sparring with the Supreme Court justices overseeing investigations into his administration and members of his family.On his watch, unemployment rose, millions slipped back into poverty, inflation returned to double digits, and the pandemic killed more than 600,000 people.Recent public opinion polls show that if the election were held today, Mr. Bolsonaro would lose to all likely rivals.A banner depicting Mr. Bolsonaro as a devil during a demonstration calling for his impeachment in July over his handling of the pandemic.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesOne recent head-to-head matchup by the Datafolha polling firm showed Mr. da Silva — who declined several interview requests — winning by a whopping 56 percent to Mr. Bolsonaro’s 31 percent.Some of the criminal cases against Mr. da Silva have unraveled as protagonists of the anti-corruption crusade fell into disrepute. Critical among them was Sergio Moro, the judge behind the conviction that sent Mr. da Silva to jail.Mr. Moro’s impartiality was questioned when he joined the Bolsonaro cabinet as justice minister and after leaked messages he exchanged with prosecutors during the investigation showed he had unlawfully provided them strategic advice.As the former judge’s once-sterling reputation was tarnished, several courts, including Brazil’s Supreme Court, issued a blizzard of rulings in favor of Mr. da Silva. The rulings, largely procedural, did not acquit him. But in practice they have all but given him a clear legal slate.Mr. da Silva, right, visiting a Landless Workers Movement settlement in Pernambuco state in August.Mauricio Lima for The New York Times‘He gave us priority’Given the torrent of scandals of the Bolsonaro era, an electorate that was once eager to crucify Mr. da Silva and his party has taken a more sanguine approach, said John French, a history professor at Duke University who wrote a biography of Mr. da Silva.“They were being indicted for not having been able to take money and corruption out of a political system where it has always been the essence of politics,” he said, arguing that Brazilian voters by and large have become resigned to political graft. “If you assume everybody is corrupt, the question is who really cares about you? Who feels for you? Who’s capable of doing something for you, something concrete?”Those questions have kept people like Rodrigo da Silva, the fisherman, loyal to Mr. da Silva.The shipyard where he once donned a uniform with pride is now overrun with weeds. The recruitment office is shuttered, the sign outside missing several letters.He has been unemployed since 2017. His electricity bill is months overdue. Raw sewage often bubbles up outside his home. But his eyes lit up when he spoke of the return of the former president who shares his last name.“The period during which I worked the most was when he was president,” he said. “Everybody steals. But he gave us priority.”Lis Moriconi contributed reporting from Rio de Janeiro. More

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      Bolsonaro Joins a Centrist Party in Brazil Ahead of 2022 Re-election Bid

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      President Jair Bolsonaro, who has not belonged to any political party for two years, is joining the centrist Liberals, they said on Wednesday.BRASILIA, Brazil — After going two years without belonging to a political party, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil sealed an agreement with the centrist Liberal Party to back his 2022 re-election bid, according to a party statement released on Wednesday.The decision followed a meeting between Mr. Bolsonaro and the Liberal Party leader, Valdemar Costa Neto, in Brasília, the capital, the statement said. The president’s formal enrollment in the party’s ranks will take place on Nov. 22.Joining one of the parties that form part of the so-called Centrao group seems to signal that Mr. Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, is shifting course from his 2018 campaign strategy, when he criticized the group’s old-school political practices.In early polls ahead of the October 2022 vote, Mr. Bolsonaro trails former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leftist who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010.The Liberal Party, or P.L., is known along with other Centrao parties for ideological malleability, often exchanging support for government appointments and earmarks. Mr. Bolsonaro was affiliated with such parties during most of his seven terms as a federal lawmaker, but cast himself as a political outsider during his 2018 presidential campaign. He vowed then not to embrace the horse trading that benefited entrenched actors and enabled corruption.“It is very symbolic how Bolsonaro has started to play the traditional game of Brazilian politics,” said Maurício Santoro, a political science professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. “The P.L. is helping Bolsonaro survive.”When Mr. Bolsonaro ran in 2018, it was under the banner of the Social Liberal Party, which he left one year after his election victory amid disagreements with its leadership over funding and regional nominations. He set out to forge his own party, but failed to garner enough signatures and has been without a political home since.The presidential press office didn’t respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press to confirm the P.L.’s statement. Earlier Wednesday, Bolsonaro had said in a radio interview that there was a “99.9 percent chance” he would join the P.L.Reports that Mr. Bolsonaro was seeking a Centrao party to sponsor his re-election bid had already generated commentary from analysts that he was departing from his prior anti-establishment stance. As rumors of his agreement with the P.L. intensified this week, comments criticizing Mr. Costa Neto, the party leader, were deleted from the social media accounts of some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s family members.Mr. Bolsonaro himself has previously said that Mr. Costa Neto was corrupt, noted Carlos Melo, a political analyst and professor at Insper University in São Paulo. In 2012, Mr. Costa Neto, then a lawmaker, was convicted of corruption and money laundering in a vast vote-buying scandal that almost brought down Mr. da Silva’s administration. He served time in prison.Over the past year, Mr. Bolsonaro has turned to the Centrao for political shelter from increasing pressure on his administration, including more than 100 impeachment requests, a Senate investigation into his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his plunging popularity. In August, he appointed a senator from the Centrao to be his chief of staff.“If you take away the Centrao, there’s the left,” the president told a small conservative news outlet, Jornal da Cidade Online, on Tuesday. “So where do I go?” More

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      Bolsonaro Está Ficando Desesperado, e Não Há Dúvidas Sobre Suas Intenções

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      SÃO PAULO, Brasil — Há semanas, o presidente brasileiro Jair Bolsonaro tem incitado seus apoiadores a tomar as ruas. Por isso, no dia 7 de setembro, Dia da Independência, eu quase esperava ver hordas de pessoas armadas vestindo camisas verde-amarelas, algumas com chapéus de pele com chifres, invadindo o edifício do Supremo Tribunal Federal — nossa própria versão da invasão do Capitólio.Felizmente, não foi o que ocorreu. (A multidão acabou indo para casa, e ninguém tentou se sentar nas cadeiras dos juízes do Supremo.) Mas os brasileiros tiveram sua cota de caos e consternação.Para Bolsonaro, foi uma demonstração de força. Pela manhã, dirigindo-se a uma multidão de cerca de 400 mil pessoas em Brasília, ele disse que pretendia usar o tamanho do público como um “ultimato para todos os que estão na Praça dos Três Poderes.” À tarde, em um protesto em São Paulo com 125 mil pessoas, o presidente chamou as eleições de 2022 de “uma farsa” e afirmou que não irá mais cumprir as decisões de um dos juízes do Supremo. Seu propósito: “dizer aos canalhas”, urrou, “que nunca serei preso!”Parece ser parte de um plano. Ao comprar briga especificamente com o Supremo Tribunal Federal — que abriu inúmeras investigações sobre o presidente e seus aliados, incluindo seu papel em um esquema potencialmente corrupto de compra de vacinas e seus esforços para desacreditar o sistema de votação brasileiro — Bolsonaro está tentando semear uma crise institucional, com vistas a se manter no poder. No dia 9 de setembro ele tentou recuar um pouco, dizendo em uma carta que não teve “nenhuma intenção de agredir quaisquer dos poderes.” Mas suas ações são claras: ele está de fato ameaçando dar um golpe.Talvez essa seja a única saída para Bolsonaro. (Com exceção de governar propriamente o país, algo que aparentemente não lhe desperta o interesse.) Os atos bizarros do presidente, que está debilitado nas pesquisas e se vê ameaçado pela perspectiva de um impeachment, são um sinal de desespero. Mas isso não quer dizer necessariamente que não podem ter êxito.Bolsonaro tem bons motivos para se desesperar. A incompetência do governo em lidar com a pandemia de Covid-19 resultou na morte de 587 mil brasileiros; o país ostenta taxas históricas de desemprego e desigualdade econômica; e também sofre com uma crescente inflação, pobreza e fome. Ah, e temos uma enorme crise energética a caminho.Tudo isso cobrou um preço alto do prestígio de Bolsonaro junto aos brasileiros. Em julho, a taxa de reprovação do presidente subiu para 51 por cento, maior índice da história, de acordo com o Datafolha. E para as eleições presidenciais do ano que vem, a situação também não é muito favorável. Na verdade, as pesquisas indicam que ele vai perder. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ex-presidente de centro-esquerda, está superando Bolsonaro com certa folga. Se as coisas continuarem como estão, Bolsonaro perde para todos os possíveis adversários no segundo turno.Isso explica a avidez do presidente em promover acusações infundadas de fraude no sistema eletrônico de votação do Brasil. “Não tem como comprovar que as eleições foram ou não foram fraudadas,” ele declarou sobre eleições passadas (inclusive a que ele venceu), durante uma transmissão pela TV que durou duas horas, em julho, enquanto falhava em fornecer quaisquer provas para apoiar suas alegações. Ele ameaçou repetidamente cancelar as eleições se o sistema de votação atual continuar em vigor — e embora o Congresso tenha recentemente rejeitado sua proposta de emitir recibos impressos, continua a lançar dúvidas sobre o sistema eleitoral. (Parece familiar? Alguém?)E tem também a corrupção. Há um número crescente de acusações de corrupção contra o presidente e dois de seus filhos, que também detêm cargos públicos. (Um deles é senador e o outro é vereador do Rio de Janeiro.) Promotores sugerem que a família Bolsonaro participou de um esquema conhecido como “rachadinha,” que consiste em contratar familiares ou pessoas próximas como funcionários e embolsar uma parte de seus salários.Para Bolsonaro, que foi eleito em parte com a promessa de acabar com a corrupção, essas investigações lançam uma pesada sombra. Diante desse cenário de inépcia e escândalo, os eventos de 7 de setembro foram uma tentativa de distrair e desviar a atenção pública — e, é claro, de cimentar a discórdia.Os esforços para destituir Bolsonaro por meios parlamentares estão empacados. Ainda que a oposição tenha apresentado 137 pedidos de impeachment, o processo precisa ser iniciado pelo presidente da Câmara dos Deputados, Arthur Lira, que não parece inclinado a aceitá-los. (Isso não é nada surpreendente: Lira é um dos líderes de um conjunto de partidos de centro-direita conhecido como “Centrão,” a quem Bolsonaro distribuiu cargos importantes no governo, na esperança de se blindar contra processos de impeachment.) Apenas enormes manifestações populares são capazes de quebrar o impasse.Não há tempo a perder. Os protestos da semana passada não foram um simples espetáculo político. Foram mais um passo para fortalecer a posição de Bolsonaro para uma eventual tomada de poder antes das eleições do ano que vem. Ele não conseguiu exatamente o que queria — os números, ainda que expressivos, foram muito menores do que os organizadores esperavam — mas ele vai continuar tentando.O 7 de setembro agora marca um outro momento emblemático na história do Brasil — quando os objetivos totalitários do nosso presidente se tornaram inequívocos. Para a nossa jovem democracia, pode ser uma questão de vida ou morte.Vanessa Barbara é a editora do sítio literário A Hortaliça, autora de dois romances e dois livros de não-ficção em português, e escritora de opinião do The New York Times. More

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      After Brazil’s Independence Day, It’s Clear What Bolsonaro Wants

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      SÃO PAULO, Brazil — For weeks, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil has been urging his supporters to take to the streets. So on Sept. 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, I was half expecting to see mobs of armed people in yellow-and-green jerseys, some of them wearing furry hats and horns, storming the Supreme Court building — our very own imitation of the Capitol riot.Fortunately, that was not what happened. (The crowds eventually went home, and no one tried to sit in the Supreme Court justices’ chairs.) But Brazilians were not spared chaos and consternation.For Mr. Bolsonaro, it was a show of force. In the morning, addressing a crowd of around 400,000 people in Brasília, he said he intended to use the size of the crowd as an “ultimatum for everyone” in the three branches of government. In the afternoon, at a demonstration in São Paulo of 125,000 people, the president called the elections coming in 2022 “a farce” and said that he will no longer abide by rulings from one of the Supreme Court justices. “I’m letting the scoundrels know,” he bellowed, “I’ll never be imprisoned!”It seems to be part of a plan. By picking a fight in particular with the Supreme Court — which has opened several investigations of him and his allies, including of his role in a potentially corrupt vaccine procurement scheme and his efforts to discredit Brazil’s voting system — Mr. Bolsonaro is attempting to sow the seeds of an institutional crisis, with a view to retaining power. On Sept. 9 he tried to back down a little, saying in a written statement that he “never intended to attack any branch of government.” But his actions are plain: He is effectively threatening a coup.Perhaps that’s the only way out for Mr. Bolsonaro. (Apart from properly governing the country, something that apparently doesn’t interest him.) The antics of the president, struggling in the polls and menaced by the prospect of impeachment, are a sign of desperation. But that doesn’t mean they can’t succeed.Mr. Bolsonaro has good reason to be desperate. The government’s mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the deaths of 587,000 Brazilians; the country faces record rates of unemployment and economic inequality; and it’s also afflicted by soaring inflation, poverty and hunger. Oh, and there’s a huge energy crisis on the way, too.That has taken its toll on Mr. Bolsonaro’s standing with Brazilians. In July, his disapproval rating rose to 51 percent, its highest-ever mark, according to Datafolha Institute. And ahead of next year’s presidential elections, things are not looking rosy. In fact, polling suggests he’s going to lose. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the center-left politician and former president, is comfortably outstripping Mr. Bolsonaro. As things stand, Mr. Bolsonaro would lose to all possible rivals in a second-round runoff.This explains Mr. Bolsonaro’s eagerness to push unfounded claims of fraud in Brazil’s electronic voting system. “There’s no way of proving whether the elections were rigged or not,” he said about past elections (including the one he won), during a two-hour TV broadcast in July, while failing to provide any evidence to support his allegations. He has repeatedly threatened to call off the elections if the current voting system remains in place — and although Congress recently rejected his proposal to require paper receipts, he continues to cast doubt on the voting process. (Sound familiar, anyone?)Then there’s the corruption. A growing number of corruption accusations have been made against the president and two of his sons, who both hold public office. (One is a senator; the other sits on Rio de Janeiro’s City Council.) Prosecutors have suggested that the Bolsonaro family took part in a scheme known as “rachadinha,” which involves hiring close associates or family members as employees and then pocketing a portion of their salary.For Mr. Bolsonaro, who was elected in part for his promise to rout out corruption, these investigations cast a long shadow. Against this backdrop of ineptitude and scandal, the events of Sept. 7 were an attempt to distract and divert attention — and, of course, to cement divisions.Efforts to remove Mr. Bolsonaro by parliamentary means are stalled. Though the opposition has so far filed 137 impeachment requests, the process must be initiated by the speaker of the lower house, Arthur Lira, who does not seem inclined to accept them. (That’s not especially surprising: Mr. Lira is a leader of a cluster of center-right parties, known as the “centrão,” to whom Mr. Bolsonaro has handed out important government positions, in the hope of shielding himself from impeachment proceedings.) Only enormous public protests can break the impasse.There’s no time to lose. The demonstrations last week were not simply political showmanship. They were yet another move to strengthen Mr. Bolsonaro’s position for an eventual power grab ahead of next year’s elections. He didn’t get exactly what he wanted — the numbers, though substantial, were far less than organizers hoped for — but he will keep trying.Sept. 7 now marks another signal moment in Brazil’s history — when the totalitarian aims of our president became unmistakably clear. For our young democracy, it could be a matter of life or death.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More