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      El bolsonarismo no se irá de Brasil

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      El rechazo tajante al gobierno reaccionario de Jair Bolsonaro que predecían las encuestas y deseaban millones de personas no llegó. Brasil está al borde del precipicio.No todo fue negativo. En las elecciones presidenciales del domingo, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, el antiguo líder sindical de centroizquierda que gobernó con destreza a Brasil de 2003 a 2011, se llevó aproximadamente el 48 por ciento de los votos; fue un resultado satisfactorio, dentro del margen de error de las encuestas finales. Lo malo es que Bolsonaro superó las predicciones y se llevó el 43 por ciento de los votos (cifra mucho más alta que las proyecciones previas), por lo que es probable que la segunda vuelta del 30 de octubre sea más cerrada de lo que se esperaba. Por si fuera poco, varios aliados y antiguos ministros del gabinete de Bolsonaro por todo el país lograron el mismo éxito en las elecciones locales.Los resultados mostraron, sin lugar a dudas, que Bolsonaro no es ningún accidente de la historia. Podría haber sido posible restarle importancia a su sorpresiva victoria hace cuatro años, cuando llegó al poder gracias a un sentimiento antiizquierdista generalizado, y explicarla como mera suerte. Pero ya no. Detrás de sus vagas referencias a “Dios, patria y familia” hay un respaldo muy firme por todo el país y de una parte amplia y diversa de la sociedad. Independientemente del resultado que obtenga a finales de este mes, los espíritus que alborotó Bolsonaro y la política que cultivó no desaparecerán.Las primeras incursiones de Bolsonaro en la política brasileña estuvieron marcadas por la ignominia. Este capitán retirado del ejército capturó por primera vez la atención nacional a mediados de los años ochenta, cuando las fuerzas armadas comenzaron una retirada táctica de la vida política tras dos décadas de gobierno militar. Un conocido semanario reveló que Bolsonaro, insatisfecho por el salario tan bajo que recibían los militares, planeó provocar algunas explosiones en un cuartel de Río de Janeiro. Su intención, según le dijo al periodista con una tremenda franqueza, era crear problemas para el nada popular ministro del ejército.Tras una ráfaga publicitaria y una investigación interna en la que Bolsonaro pareció amenazar al periodista por testificar en su contra, el incidente quedó prácticamente en el olvido. Sin embargo, ese desplante ilustró la conducta habitual de Bolsonaro, un soldado deslucido cuyas enormes ambiciones políticas por lo regular molestaban a los militares distinguidos de mayor rango. Con todo, su pasado militar fue un arma electoral útil. En 1988, después de restaurada la democracia brasileña, decidió arrancar su carrera política posicionándose como representante de los intereses y perspectivas del militar típico.Con el paso del tiempo, su discurso adquirió un tono más general de derecha y adoptó el tono conservador, si no es que la teología, el cristianismo evangélico. La política de Bolsonaro —una mezcla de intolerancia, autoritarismo, moralismo religioso, neoliberalismo y teorías conspirativas espontáneas— casi no tuvo prominencia después del gobierno militar. No obstante, 13 años de gobierno del progresista Partido de los Trabajadores causaron descontento en la derecha. En opinión de las figuras de esa ideología, las repetidas victorias electorales de la izquierda parecían indicar que había juego sucio y atentaban contra la propia noción de democracia. Al frente de esta embestida, con una grandilocuencia ideológica inimitable, estaba Bolsonaro. En la mayor democracia de América Latina, ahora habla en nombre de decenas de millones de personas.Los sucesos del domingo subrayaron esta lamentable situación. Los candidatos respaldados por Bolsonaro tuvieron los mejores resultados en todo el país y obtuvieron victorias importantes contra candidatos respaldados por Da Silva en São Paulo y Río de Janeiro. De hecho, la primera vuelta de las votaciones parece indicar que el proyecto político que se impuso en 2018 (en una palabra, el “Bolsonarismo”) no solo sigue vigente, sino que puede crecer. Si pensamos en el desastroso manejo de la COVID-19 por parte de Bolsonaro, sus constantes amenazas a la democracia brasileña y la serie de escándalos de corrupción en torno a él y su familia, el futuro luce sombrío.Pero esto no es inexplicable. Aunque hay mucho que no sabemos (el censo, postergado debido a la pandemia y a un sabotaje institucional, tiene más de una década de retraso), algunas cosas son claras. A pesar de que Bolsonaro conservó su abrumadora ventaja en las áreas del oeste y el noroeste del país, el aspecto más sorprendente de las elecciones fue con cuánta claridad mantuvo las líneas establecidas de apoyo regional. En el sureste, un bastión tradicional de política conservadora, Bolsonaro prosperó. En el noreste, refugio del Partido de los Trabajadores, Da Silva sobresalió. El éxito de Bolsonaro ha consistido en mantener y ampliar la base de apoyo conservadora tradicional, convocándola en torno a sus amargas denuncias de los progresistas, el sistema de justicia, la prensa y las instituciones internacionales.Sin embargo, con todo y esta gran demostración de dominio de Bolsonaro, el resultado más probable todavía es la victoria de Da Silva. Después de todo, el segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones nunca en la historia ha ganado la segunda vuelta. Además, lo más probable es que los candidatos que terminaron en tercer y cuarto lugar, Simone Tebet, de centroderecha, y Ciro Gomes, de centroizquierda, apoyen a Da Silva. El gusto del expresidente por las actividades de campaña, evidente en un animado mensaje que escribió en Twitter en cuanto los resultados fueron claros, es otra ventaja. Cuatro semanas dedicadas a hacer campaña deberían sentarle bien.El problema es que prolongar la campaña también podría ser peligroso. Los partidarios de Bolsonaro ya han estado envueltos en varios actos de violencia en contra de los seguidores de Da Silva. No sería inesperado que el “Bolsonarismo”, movimiento arraigado en una retórica violenta, se cobre más vidas antes del 30 de octubre. Mientras tanto, gracias a su sorpresivo éxito, el presidente Bolsonaro tiene más tiempo y credibilidad para seguir adelante con sus planes en contra de la democracia brasileña.Bolsonaro todavía debe librar varios obstáculos para hacerse con el poder. Pero acaba de superar uno muy importante.Andre Pagliarini (@apagliar) es profesor asistente de Historia en Hampden-Sydney College, investigador en la institución independiente Washington Brazil Office y columnista de The Brazilian Report. More

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      Brazil’s Election on Sunday Showed That “Bolsonarismo” Is Here to Stay

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      The stark rebuke to the reactionary government of Jair Bolsonaro, predicted by the polls and desired by millions, didn’t come to pass. Brazil is on edge.It wasn’t all bad. In Sunday’s presidential election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the center-left former union leader who governed Brazil ably from 2003 to 2011, took roughly 48 percent of the vote, a healthy performance within the final polls’ margin of error. But Mr. Bolsonaro exceeded his presumed ceiling, taking 43 percent — far above previous predictions — and setting up what will most likely be a closer than expected runoff on Oct. 30. What’s more, several of Mr. Bolsonaro’s former cabinet ministers and allies across the country rode his coattails to success in local elections.The results showed beyond any doubt that Mr. Bolsonaro is no accident of history. It might have been possible to dismiss his surprising election four years ago, when he rose to power on a wave of widespread anti-left sentiment, as a fluke. No longer. Underlying his vague appeals to “God, fatherland and family” is a bedrock of support, spread across the country and encompassing a wide cross-section of society. Irrespective of the result at the end of the month, the spirits Mr. Bolsonaro animated and the politics he cultivated are here to stay.Mr. Bolsonaro’s beginnings in Brazilian politics were ignominious. An army captain, he first came to national attention in the mid-1980s as the armed forces were beginning a tactical retreat from political life after two decades of military rule. A leading newsmagazine revealed that Mr. Bolsonaro, resentful about poor remuneration, was planning to bomb a barracks in Rio de Janeiro. The goal, he told the reporter with remarkable directness, was to embarrass the unpopular army minister.After a flurry of publicity and an internal investigation in which Mr. Bolsonaro appeared to threaten the journalist for testifying against him, the incident was largely forgotten. But the macho bluster was typical of Mr. Bolsonaro, a lackluster soldier whose outsize political ambitions often rubbed senior military figures the wrong way. Even so, his military background proved electorally useful. In 1988, after the restoration of Brazilian democracy, he began a political career as a representative of the interests and perspectives of the military Everyman.Over time, his appeals assumed a more general right-wing tenor, embracing the conservative thrust if not the theology of evangelical Christianity. Mr. Bolsonaro’s politics — a medley of bigotry, authoritarianism, religious moralism, neoliberalism and freewheeling conspiracy theorization — were largely sidelined in the wake of military rule. But 13 years of progressive Workers’ Party governments gave rise to discontent on the right. To figures there, the left’s repeated electoral victories smacked of foul play and discredited the very notion of democracy itself. At the head of this charge, possessed of inimitable ideological bombast, was Mr. Bolsonaro. In Latin America’s biggest democracy, he now speaks for tens of millions.Sunday underscored this sorry state of affairs. Mr. Bolsonaro’s endorsed candidates overperformed everywhere, claiming major victories against candidates backed by Mr. da Silva in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Indeed, the first round of voting suggests not only that the political project that prevailed in 2018 — in a word, “Bolsonarismo” — is alive and well but also that it has room to grow. Considering Mr. Bolsonaro’s disastrous handling of Covid-19, his consistent threats to Brazilian democracy and the rash of corruption scandals surrounding him and his family, this is a grim prospect.Yet not an inexplicable one. Though there’s a lot we don’t know — the census, delayed by the pandemic and institutional sabotage, is over a decade old — some things are clear. While Mr. Bolsonaro retained his overwhelming advantage in the western and northwestern parts of the country, the most striking aspect of the election was how cleanly it fell along established lines of regional support. In the southeast, a traditional bastion of conservative politics, Mr. Bolsonaro prospered. In the northeast, a redoubt for the Workers’ Party, Mr. da Silva excelled. Mr. Bolsonaro’s success has been to retain and extend the traditional conservative base of support, enthusing it with his bitter denunciations of progressives, the justice system, journalists and international institutions.Yet for all of Mr. Bolsonaro’s show of strength, the most likely outcome remains a victory for Mr. da Silva. After all, no runner-up in the first round of voting has ever won the second. The candidates who finished third and fourth — the center-right Simone Tebet and the center-left Ciro Gomes — will probably support Mr. da Silva, too. The former president’s relish for campaigning, evident in an upbeat message he wrote on Twitter once the results were clear, is another advantage. Four weeks in campaign mode should suit him well.But extending the campaign is a dangerous proposition. Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have already engaged in numerous acts of violence against Mr. da Silva’s supporters. It would not be surprising if “Bolsonarismo,” a movement rooted in violent rhetoric, claims more lives before Oct. 30. Meanwhile, President Bolsonaro, gifted time and greater credibility by his surprising success, can continue plotting against Brazilian democracy.Several hurdles remain in the way of a power grab by Mr. Bolsonaro. But he has just cleared a major one.Andre Pagliarini (@apagliar) is an assistant professor of history at Hampden-Sydney College, a fellow at the Washington Brazil Office and a columnist at The Brazilian Report.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      ‘Una contienda de infarto’: Bolsonaro, Lula da Silva y Brasil tienen 4 semanas trepidantes

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      El presidente Jair Bolsonaro parecía condenado al fracaso de cara a la primera ronda de las elecciones. Pero ahora, rumbo al balotaje, el mandatario de derecha tiene un camino a la reelección.RÍO DE JANEIRO — La madrugada del lunes, el presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, se fue a dormir reivindicado. Los resultados electorales de la noche habían demostrado, tal como él lo había afirmado, que las encuestas subestimaban enormemente la fuerza de su movimiento de derecha.Horas más tarde, despertó con un nuevo desafío: ¿cómo obtener millones de votos más en solo cuatro semanas?El 30 de octubre, Bolsonaro se enfrentará a un contrincante de izquierda, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, en una segunda vuelta electoral para liderar al país más grande de América Latina.Ahora la contienda —un enfrentamiento entre los dos mayores pesos pesados de la política brasileña— podría inclinarse hacia cualquiera de los dos lados y promete prolongar lo que ya ha sido una dura batalla que ha polarizado al país y puesto a prueba la fortaleza de su democracia.“Lula sigue siendo el favorito, pero uno se puede imaginar totalmente que esto se convierta en una victoria de Bolsonaro”, dijo Oliver Stuenkel, un politólogo brasileño. “Si se suman todos los números de los candidatos de partidos pequeños, hay suficientes votos por ahí”.Da Silva, conocido universalmente como Lula, terminó en primer lugar el domingo, con el 48,4 por ciento de los votos, frente al 43,2 por ciento de Bolsonaro. De este modo, Da Silva se quedó a 1,85 millones de votos del 50 por ciento que necesitaba para una victoria rotunda en la primera vuelta, mientras que Bolsonaro se quedó a ocho millones de votos.Lo que ahora hace que la contienda sea impredecible es que muchos otros votos parecen estar en juego. Casi 10 millones de personas votaron el domingo por candidatos que ahora están fuera de la pelea, con aproximadamente un tercio de esos votos para candidatos de centroderecha. Otros 38 millones de personas votaron en blanco o no votaron.El expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva terminó en primer lugar el domingo con el 48,4 por ciento de los votos, frente al 43,2 por ciento de Bolsonaro.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesA medida que la campaña entra en una segunda fase, ambas partes han expresado confianza. Da Silva dijo que agradecía la oportunidad de finalmente debatir cara a cara con Bolsonaro, mientras que Bolsonaro dijo que creía que su campaña tenía impulso y un plan para la victoria.El lunes, Bolsonaro ya estaba usando las herramientas de su cargo en su beneficio. Adelantó a la próxima semana la entrega de cheques de unos 115 dólares para brasileños de bajos ingresos, parte de un programa de bienestar mensual que recientemente amplió en un intento de última hora de atraer más apoyo. El domingo por la noche, Bolsonaro citó esa ayuda económica como una de las razones por las que superó las predicciones de las encuestas.Las encuestadoras habían pronosticado que Bolsonaro recibiría aproximadamente el 36 por ciento de los votos, más de siete puntos porcentuales por debajo de su resultado real. Sobreestimaron ligeramente el apoyo de Da Silva.La pregunta de por qué las encuestas habían subestimado el apoyo a Bolsonaro confundió a los círculos políticos brasileños el lunes. Los encuestadores especularon que los votantes fueron deshonestos porque se avergonzaban de admitir que iban a votar por el presidente, cuyas afirmaciones falsas sobre una variedad de temas lo han convertido en un paria en algunos círculos, o que simplemente mintieron para sabotear las previsiones. Bolsonaro ha arremetido contra la industria de las encuestas —el domingo por la noche las llamó mentirosas— y muchos de sus partidarios han seguido su ejemplo.Las cosas podrían complicarse aún más antes de la segunda vuelta. El jefe de gabinete de Bolsonaro, Ciro Nogueira, instó a los partidarios del presidente a rechazar a los encuestadores que quieran entrevistarlos.La votación del domingo trajo buenas noticias para los conservadores en la mayoría de las elecciones de gobernadores y diputados, incluyendo muchos candidatos estrechamente alineados con Bolsonaro.Dado Galdieri para The New York Times“De esta manera, se tendrá la certeza desde el principio de que cualquiera de sus resultados es fraudulento”, escribió en Twitter a sus 100.000 seguidores. Luego sugirió que los encuestadores se equivocaron a propósito. “Solo una investigación profunda lo dirá”, dijo.Antonio Lavareda, presidente de Ipespe, una de las principales empresas de sondeos, dijo que tenía que examinar el efecto de los votantes que se quedaron en casa; el 21 por ciento del electorado no votó, el porcentaje más alto desde 1998. También especuló con que muchas personas que dijeron que votarían a terceros candidatos se pasaron a Bolsonaro en el último momento.Pero a pesar de los pronósticos inexactos de su empresa para el presidente en la primera ronda, Lavareda hizo una predicción audaz: el 48,8 por ciento de apoyo a Da Silva el domingo significa que “es prácticamente imposible” que no gane el 30 de octubre.Sin embargo, el fracaso de las encuestas dejó un mal sabor de boca a muchos brasileños y expertos.“Renuncio a las encuestas durante las próximas cuatro semanas”, dijo Brian Winter, analista de América Latina de Americas Society/Council of the Americas, un grupo que impulsa el libre comercio enl a región. “Su metodología no funciona”.Los pronósticos de las encuestas y la falta de claridad en la contienda podrían llevar a una situación tensa cuando se revelen los resultados el 30 de octubre. Bolsonaro ha dicho durante meses a sus partidarios que sospechen de fraude electoral —a pesar de no ofrecer ninguna prueba— y ha sugerido que la única forma en que podría perder es si la elección es robada.Esas afirmaciones sin fundamento parecen haber persuadido a millones de votantes en Brasil.El domingo por la noche, muchos de los partidarios de Bolsonaro ya reclamaban juego sucio. “Es un fraude. Lula no puede estar por delante de Bolsonaro”, dijo Yasmin Simões, de 28 años, una empleada de comercio minorista que esperaba frente a la casa de Bolsonaro en un barrio junto a la playa en Río de Janeiro. “Si Lula es elegido —por fraude— definitivamente va a haber una revuelta y yo voy a estar ahí”.El éxito de los aliados de Bolsonaro y el apoyo que recibió, mayor a lo anticipado, también muestran que tiene un firme control del movimiento conservador en Brasil.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesAlgunos comentaristas conservadores conocidos también empezaron a asegurar, sin dar pruebas, de que algo sospechoso había sucedido en la votación del domingo.“Creo que es MUY posible que hubo fraude”, tuiteó Rodrigo Constantino, comentarista de derecha afincado en Florida, para sus 1,3 millones de seguidores. “¡El ÚNICO OBJETIVO tiene que ser ganar tantos votos para Bolsonaro que ni siquiera un algoritmo raro pueda cambiarlos!”.La votación del domingo fue una buena noticia para los conservadores en la mayoría de las elecciones de gobernadores y congresistas, incluidos muchos de los candidatos más cercanos a la línea de Bolsonaro. Al menos ocho de sus exministros fueron votados al Congreso, entre ellos varios que se vieron envueltos en escándalos. En total, el partido de Bolsonaro ganó 29 curules en el Congreso, con lo que ahora ocupa 112 en total y se posiciona como el partido con más representación tanto en la cámara baja como en el Senado.En consecuencia, si se le elige para un segundo periodo, Bolsonaro podría estar empoderado por su control del Congreso y replantear de manera más significativa su visión para el país. Para Da Silva, un congreso conservador podría complicar sus esfuerzos por gobernar.El éxito de los aliados de Bolsonaro y el apoyo que recibió, mayor a lo anticipado, también muestran que tiene un firme control del movimiento conservador en Brasil.“La derecha moderada de Brasil es un basurero político”, dijo Stuenkel. “Parte de la polarización extrema en Brasil es que, en la derecha, Bolsonaro tiene el dominio absoluto”.En las próximas cuatro semanas, el equipo de Bolsonaro planea ir por el estado clave de Minas Gerais, donde cree que puede cosechar un millón de votos y buscará mejorar sus resultados en el bastión de Da Silva en el nordeste, dijo Fábio Faria, ministro de Comunicaciones de Brasil y alto asesor del presidente. “Estamos muy confiados”, dijo.La campaña de Lula da Silva planea subrayar la serie de afirmaciones falsas de Bolsonaro y mostrar que a la economía le fue mucho mejor durante los dos mandatos de Da Silva, de 2003 a 2010, que en el gobierno de Bolsonaro.Da Silva en un mitin el sábado. Los analistas pronostican que se moderará para atraer a los votantes más de centro.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times“Será la primera oportunidad que tendremos de un debate cara a cara con el presidente”, dijo a sus seguidores Da Silva el domingo por la noche. “¿Va a seguir mintiendo o, por una vez en su vida, va a decirle la verdad al pueblo brasileño?”.Da Silva había enfocado su campaña en aumentar los impuestos para los ricos y en ampliar los servicios para los pobres pero, luego de los resultados del domingo, los analistas dijeron que moderaría su discurso de campaña para atraer a más votantes centristas.“Hay que ir a los rincones bolsonaristas del país”, dijo el senador Jean-Paul Prates, un asesor de la campaña de Da Silva. “Hay que dar la cara, sonreír a la gente del sur, del medio oeste y hablar de las cosas que importan en sus vidas”.En las ocho elecciones presidenciales previas en la democracia moderna de Brasil, el candidato que ha liderado la primera vuelta nunca ha perdido en la segunda. Pero los cinco puntos porcentuales que separan a Bolsonaro y Da Silva también son el margen más reducido que se ha registrado entre dos candidatos en un balotaje.Como resultado, dijo Winter, “esta va a ser una contienda de infarto”.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Antes reportó de tecnología desde San Francisco y, antes de integrarse al Times en 2018, trabajó siete años en The Wall Street Journal. @jacknicas • Facebook More

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      Election Deniers in U.S. Push Idea of Voting Fraud in Brazil

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      The false specter of an election rife with conspiracy and fraud — this one in Brazil — is spreading around American right-wing media channels from prominent election denialists still fixated on the fiction that Donald J. Trump was robbed of the presidency two years ago. Some used the voting in Brazil on Sunday to try to whip up concern about the approaching midterm elections in the United States.“Dear Brazil, please watch those vote counts at 3 a.m.,” Mark Finchem, the Republican candidate for Arizona secretary of state, wrote on his Telegram channel on Sunday, Election Day in Brazil. “They are a doozy.”Mr. Finchem also warned of “suitcases coming out under tables” and “pizza boxes up in front of windows to block poll watchers.” These motifs were based on debunked but prominent conspiracy theories pushed by allies of Mr. Trump who tried to overturn the results of the election in 2020.President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, whose candidacy Mr. Trump and his supporters favored, outperformed expectations, forcing an Oct. 30 runoff election against his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Some of the Trump allies sowing doubt in elections helped export their strategy to Brazil after the 2020 election. Donald Trump Jr. warned about Chinese meddling in a speech in Brazil last year, while Mr. Bolsonaro’s son appeared at an event in South Dakota last year hosted by the pillow entrepreneur Mike Lindell, a prominent promoter of election conspiracy theories.As our colleagues in Brazil have written, Mr. Bolsonaro has been attacking the election system for months and suggesting that if he did not win, it would be due to fraud. There is no evidence of past widespread fraud and Brazil election officials maintained that these allegations are false.Despite attempts by American election deniers to draw parallels between the two countries, Brazil’s voting system is markedly different from that in the U.S. Rather than using different procedures and equipment in each state, Brazilian voters use the same machines nationwide, and there is no voting by mail. As a result, results can be delivered in a matter of hours.On Monday, even after the better-than-expected results, some allies of Mr. Trump were in the strange position of continuing to push the idea of election fraud even while celebrating the outcome.Stephen K. Bannon said on his show on Monday morning that the Brazilian election was an “absolutely central and very stark warning to MAGA and to all the Republicans of the games being played in these elections.” He referred American viewers to a list of vigilante activities they could participate in for the upcoming election in their own country.Gateway Pundit, a right-wing website, described the election in a headline as experiencing “MASSIVE Fraud” while hailing its outcome. More

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      Brazil Braces for ‘White-Knuckle Race’ Between Bolsonaro and Lula

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      President Jair Bolsonaro had once looked doomed in the country’s high-stakes election. But now, in a runoff, the right-wing incumbent has a path to re-election.RIO DE JANEIRO — In the early morning hours on Monday, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil went to bed vindicated. The night’s election results had shown, just as he had claimed, that the polls had severely underestimated the strength of his right-wing movement.Hours later, he awoke to a new challenge: How to obtain millions more votes in just four weeks?On Oct. 30, Mr. Bolsonaro will face a leftist challenger, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in a runoff election to lead Latin America’s largest nation.Now the contest — a matchup between Brazil’s two biggest political heavyweights — could swing either way and promises to prolong what has already been a bruising battle that has polarized the nation and tested the strength of its democracy.“Lula is still the favorite, but you can totally imagine this becoming a Bolsonaro victory,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a Brazilian political scientist. “If you add up all the numbers of the third-party candidates, there are sufficient votes out there.”Mr. da Silva, known universally as Lula, finished first on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the vote, versus 43.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro. That put Mr. da Silva about 1.85 million votes shy of the 50 percent he needed for an outright victory in the first round, while Mr. Bolsonaro came up 8 million votes short.What now makes the race unpredictable is that so many other votes appear up for grabs. Nearly 10 million people cast ballots on Sunday for candidates who are now out of the contest, with roughly a third of those votes going to a center-left candidate and two-thirds to center-right candidates. An additional 38 million people cast blank ballots or did not vote.The former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished first on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the vote, versus 43.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesAs the campaign enters a second phase, both sides have expressed confidence. Mr. da Silva said he welcomed the opportunity to finally debate Mr. Bolsonaro head-to-head, while Mr. Bolsonaro said he believed his campaign had the momentum and a plan for victory.On Monday, Mr. Bolsonaro was already using the tools of his office to his advantage. He moved up to next week the delivery of $115 checks for low-income Brazilians, part of a monthly welfare program that he recently expanded in a last-minute bid to lure more support. On Sunday night, Mr. Bolsonaro cited that assistance as one reason he outperformed predictions by polls.Pollsters had forecast that Mr. Bolsonaro would receive roughly 36 percent of the vote, more than 7 percentage points below his actual tally. They had overestimated Mr. da Silva’s support only slightly.The question of why the polls had underestimated Mr. Bolsonaro’s support confounded Brazilian political circles on Monday. Pollsters speculated that voters were dishonest because they were ashamed to admit they were voting for the president, whose false claims on a variety of issues have made him a pariah in some circles, or that they simply lied to sabotage the forecasts. Mr. Bolsonaro has railed against the polling industry — on Sunday night he called them liars — and many of his supporters have followed suit.Things could get even more complicated ahead of the runoff. Mr. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira, urged the president’s supporters to reject any pollsters wanting to interview them.The vote on Sunday delivered good news for conservatives in most governor and congressional elections, including many candidates closely aligned with Mr. Bolsonaro. Dado Galdieri for The New York Times“That way, it’ll be certain from the start that any of their results are fraudulent,” he wrote on Twitter to his 100,000 followers. He then suggested the pollsters got it wrong on purpose. “Only a deep investigation will tell,” he said.Antonio Lavareda, the president of Ipespe, a top polling company, said he needed to examine the effect of voters staying home; 21 percent of the electorate did not vote, the highest share since 1998. He also speculated that many people who said they would vote for third-party candidates switched to Mr. Bolsonaro at the last minute.But despite his firm’s inaccurate forecasts for the president in the first round, Mr. Lavareda still made a bold prediction: Mr. da Silva’s 48.4 percent support on Sunday meant that “it’s practically impossible” he does not win on Oct. 30.Still, the fallout from the polls left a bad taste for many Brazilians and experts.“I’ve sworn off polls for the next four weeks,” said Brian Winter, a Latin America analyst with Americas Society/Council of the Americas, a group that pushes free trade in the Americas. “Their methodology is broken.”The survey forecasts and lack of clarity in the race could lead to a tense situation when the results are revealed on Oct. 30. Mr. Bolsonaro has for months told his supporters to suspect voter fraud — despite offering no evidence — and he has suggested that the only way he could lose is if the election is stolen.Those unsubstantiated claims appear to have persuaded millions of voters in Brazil. On Sunday night, many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters were already claiming foul play. “It’s fraud. Lula can’t be ahead of Bolsonaro,” said Yasmin Simões, 28, a retail employee gathered with other supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro outside his home in a beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro. “If Lula is elected — by fraud — there’s definitely going to be a revolt, and I’m in.”The success of Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies and his stronger-than-expected support also shows that he maintains a firm grip on the conservative movement in Brazil.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesSome prominent conservative pundits also began pushing claims, without evidence, that something fishy had occurred in Sunday’s voting.“I think it’s VERY possible that there was fraud,” Rodrigo Constantino, a right-wing Brazilian pundit who lives in Florida, wrote to his 1.3 million followers on Twitter. “The ONLY GOAL has to be to win so many votes for Bolsonaro that not even a strange algorithm can change it!”The vote on Sunday delivered good news for conservatives in most governor and congressional elections, including many candidates closely aligned with Mr. Bolsonaro. At least eight of his former ministers were elected to Congress, including several who were once shrouded in scandal. Overall, Mr. Bolsonaro’s political party picked up 29 seats in Congress, giving it 112 in total, the biggest party in both the House and Senate.As a result, if elected to a second term, Mr. Bolsonaro could be emboldened by his effective control of Congress and more significantly remake Brazilian society in his vision. For Mr. da Silva, the conservative Congress could complicate his efforts to govern.The success of Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies and his stronger-than-expected support also shows that he maintains a firm grip on the conservative movement in Brazil.“Brazil’s moderate right is a political wasteland,” Mr. Stuenkel said. “Part of the extreme polarization in Brazil is that, on the right, Bolsonaro reigns supreme.”Over the next four weeks, Mr. Bolsonaro’s team plans to target the swing state of Minas Gerais, where it believes it can pick up one million votes, and looks to improve its results in Mr. da Silva’s stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, said Fábio Faria, Brazil’s communications minister and a senior adviser to the president. “We are really confident,” he said.Mr. da Silva’s campaign plans to highlight Mr. Bolsonaro’s string of false statements and show that the economy performed far better during Mr. da Silva’s two terms, from 2003 through 2010, than during Mr. Bolsonaro’s tenure.Mr. da Silva during a rally on Saturday. Analysts predict that he will moderate his stump speech in order to attract more centrist voters.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“It will be the first chance for us to have a tête-à-tête debate with the president,” Mr. da Silva told supporters Sunday night. “Is he going to keep telling lies or will he, at least once in his life, tell the truth to the Brazilian people?”Mr. da Silva had focused his campaign on raising taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, but — after Sunday’s results — analysts predicted that he would moderate his stump speech in order to attract more centrists.“You have to go to the Bolsonaro corners of the country,” said Senator Jean-Paul Prates, a senior adviser to Mr. da Silva’s campaign. “You have to show your face, smile at these people in the south, the midwest, and talk about the things that concern their lives.”In the eight previous presidential elections in Brazil’s modern democracy, the candidate that has led in the first round has never lost in the second. But the 5 percentage points separating Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. da Silva are also the slimmest margin between two candidates in a runoff.As a result, Mr. Winter said, “this is going to be a white-knuckle race.” More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Indonesia Investigates Its Soccer Tragedy

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      Plus Brazil’s elections move to a runoff and Ukraine surges forward in the Donbas.Relatives mourn victims killed at a soccer match in Malang, Indonesia.Mast Irham/EPA, via ShutterstockAnger mounts in IndonesiaAn independent commission in Indonesia will investigate the deaths of at least 125 people, including 33 children, who were killed at a soccer game on Saturday. After soccer fans at a stadium in Malang rushed onto the field following a 3-2 home-game defeat, the police fired tear gas into the stands. Panic ensued.The authorities have interviewed 18 officers who fired tear gas. Military personnel who were seen hitting fans would face punishment, according to the national police chief. The police chief in Malang was among nine local officers suspended yesterday.The deadly clash has inspired widespread accusations that the police helped turn minor unrest into one of the deadliest stadium catastrophes in history. Indonesia said that officers suspected of wrongful violence would face criminal charges.New details: Many people were trampled as they rushed for the exits, only two of which were open, according to a human rights official. Some victims died in the stadium’s changing rooms, where players tried to help them.Analysis: Members of Indonesia’s police system are almost never held accountable for their actions. Under the government of President Joko Widodo, officers have used brute force to suppress crowds, accepted bribes and largely operated with impunity.Background: At the stadium in Malang, tear gas fired by the police had also turned deadly in 2018.Brazilians use soccer jerseys as a show of support for Jair Bolsonaro, the president.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesA runoff in BrazilBrazil’s national elections went to a runoff after Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right president, outperformed in the polls. He received 43.23 percent of the vote; his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president, received 48.4 percent.The two political titans will face off again on Oct. 30, for what is widely regarded as the most important vote in decades for the largest nation in Latin America. Over the next four weeks, Bolsonaro will have to make up ground on Lula.The election is considered across the world as a major test for democracy. For months, Bolsonaro has criticized, without any evidence, electronic voting machines as rife with fraud, suggesting that the only way he would lose is if the election were rigged.The State of the WarAnnexation Push: After Moscow’s proxies conducted a series of sham referendums in the Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk, President Vladimir V. Putin declared the four territories to be part of Russia. Western leaders, including President Biden in the United States, denounced the annexation as illegal.Retreat From Key City: Russian forces withdrew from the strategically important city of Lyman, in Donetsk Province, on Oct. 1. The retreat was a significant setback for Moscow, coming just a day after Mr. Putin declared the region to be Russian territory.Putin’s Nuclear Threats: For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, top Russian leaders are making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should Mr. Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon.Russia’s Draft: The Kremlin has acknowledged that its new military draft is rife with problems, as protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have left the country.Issues: Brazil faces environmental threats, rising hunger, a sputtering economy and a deeply polarized population. The two candidates radically differ in their approaches to each issue.Region: A victory by Lula would extend a string of left-wing victories across Latin America, fueled by anti-incumbent backlash. Brazil could become the sixth of the region’s seven largest countries to elect a leftist leader since 2018.After capturing Lyman over the weekend, Ukrainian forces moved toward new positions.Nicole Tung for The New York TimesUkraine advances in the DonbasRussian forces in Ukraine were on the run across the frontline yesterday, as the Ukrainian military pressed toward the eastern Donbas region and made gains in the south.Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces captured Lyman, in the Donetsk region, before word of Vladimir Putin’s illegal annexation of the territory a day earlier could even reach its residents.With Russian troops in disarray on the battlefield, the Kremlin fared no better. It acknowledged that it does not even know the boundaries of two regions it recently declared to be part of Russia — a move that Kyiv and Western leaders said was illegal.“In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, told reporters yesterday.Russia also continued to struggle with its military draft. Half of the several thousand residents who had been drafted in the far eastern region of Khabarovsk were returned home. The region’s governor, Mikhail Degtyarev, said they “did not meet the criteria for military service.”Background: Since Putin announced a “partial mobilization” last month, protests have erupted across Russia, recruitment centers have been attacked and thousands of men have fled the country.In other updates:Denmark said that the Nord Stream pipelines have stopped leaking. The cause remains unknown, but political leaders in Europe and the U.S. have speculated it was an act of sabotage by Russia.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificBrittany Higgins was 26 when she accused a colleague, Bruce Lehrmann, of rape.Jamila Toderas/Getty ImagesBrittany Higgins, a former employee of Australia’s government, said that a colleague raped her in the country’s Parliament in 2019. His trial begins today.The U.S. is preparing to announce new measures to try to cut China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology.Heavy rains are worsening floods in Thailand, The Associated Press reports.The Associated Press found that as many as 52 people died in a suicide bombing last week in Kabul, more than twice the Taliban’s official count of 25.World NewsThe last Supreme Court term ended with a bombshell decision that eliminated the right to abortion.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesIn the U.S., a new Supreme Court term began yesterday. The six-justice conservative supermajority is expected to continue steering the court right on issues including affirmative action and gay rights.Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, reversed plans to cut tax rates on high earners, after her proposal sent the British pound into a tailspin.Oil prices jumped yesterday after news that OPEC Plus may cut production. The move would reverse increases that had pushed prices down.What Else Is HappeningSvante Pääbo, a Swedish geneticist, won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for sequencing the Neanderthal genome.Sacheen Littlefeather, the Apache activist and actress who declined Marlon Brando’s Academy Award on his behalf in 1973, has died at 75.Kim Kardashian will pay $1.26 million as part of a settlement for not disclosing that she had been paid to promote a crypto token.A Morning ReadFor Kana Komatsubara, 26, a nail stylist, a tiny apartment offered a gateway to long-deferred independence from her parents.Noriko Hayashi for The New York TimesSome young people in Japan are choosing to live in teeny tiny apartments. They’re stylish and located in trendy neighborhoods near subway stations, perfect for those who work long hours and are rarely at home.“I wouldn’t live anywhere else,” said Yugo Kinoshita, 19, who uses a lint roller to clean his floor.Lives lived: Antonio Inoki, a Japanese wrestler who faced Muhammad Ali in an anticlimactic stunt match in 1976, later became an unlikely diplomat. He died at 79.ARTS AND IDEASA rabbi for allRabbi Delphine Horvilleur is one of only five female rabbis in all of France. And she has a particular preoccupation with death — one she attributes to officiating at least two funerals a week and being a grandchild of Holocaust survivors.In 2020, when the coronavirus forced Paris to shut down, she found herself conducting funerals over Zoom, while her two youngest children watched cartoons in the next room. With Passover under lockdown, she decided to deliver weekly talks about Jewish texts. Her reflections on the Talmud, Jewish mysticism and death have since reached well beyond her congregation of 1,200 in the French capital, drawing thousands of Jews, Muslims, Christians, believers and nonbelievers.“She is my rabbi,” said Edith Gillet, 49, a French atheist with a Catholic grandmother and no plans to convert. “I got hooked on her because she’s so inspirational in such dark times,” Gillet, who watches Rabbi Horvilleur from her home in California, said. “I’m drawn more to her philosophy than to any notion of God.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York TimesMake Yossy Arefi’s peanut-butter chocolate-chip cookies in just 30 minutes.What to WatchThe British filmmaker Peter Strickland crafts strange, unconventional cinematic universes. His latest, “Flux Gourmet,” reveals his affinity with sound in new ways.RomanceDating with chronic illness involves unique challenges.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Thai currency (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — Jessica and AmeliaP.S. The Times won five Emmys, and three Gerald Loeb Awards for business journalism.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Latino voters in the U.S.You can reach Jessica, Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Bolsonaro supera los pronósticos y va a segunda vuelta con Lula

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      Dos titanes políticos se enfrentarán a finales de este mes en unas elecciones que se consideran una prueba importante para una de las mayores democracias del mundo.RÍO DE JANEIRO —Durante meses, encuestadores y analistas habían dicho que el presidente Jair Bolsonaro estaba destinado al fracaso. Se enfrentaba a una desventaja amplia e inquebrantable en la contienda presidencial de Brasil, y en las últimas semanas, las encuestas habían sugerido que incluso podría perder en la primera ronda, con lo que habría concluido su presidencia después de solo un mandato.En cambio, era Bolsonaro quien estaba celebrando. Aunque el contendiente, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un expresidente de izquierda, terminó la noche con más votos, Bolsonaro superó con creces los pronósticos y envió la contienda a una segunda vuelta.Da Silva recibió el 48,4 por ciento de los votos el domingo, frente al 43,23 por ciento de Bolsonaro, con el 99,87 por ciento de los votos contados, según la agencia electoral de Brasil. Da Silva necesitaba superar el 50 por ciento para ser elegido presidente en la primera vuelta.Se enfrentarán el 30 de octubre en la que se considera la votación más importante en décadas para el país más grande de América Latina.Esto se debe en parte a las visiones dramáticamente distintas que los dos candidatos plantean para este país de 217 millones de habitantes, y también a que Brasil enfrenta una serie de desafíos en los años por venir, entre ellos las amenazas ambientales, el aumento del hambre, una economía inestable y una población profundamente polarizada.El expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva da un mensaje tras el anuncio de los resultados electorales el domingo. Da Silva y el presidente Jair Bolsonaro se enfrentarán en una segunda vuelta a finales de este mes.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesPero la elección también ha llamado la atención en Brasil y en el extranjero porque ha supuesto una gran prueba para una de las mayores democracias del mundo. Bolsonaro ha criticado las máquinas de votar del país, ha dicho que están plagadas de fraude —a pesar de que no haya pruebas de ello— y había insinuado que la única forma en la que perdería era si la elección resultaba amañada.Bolsonaro le dijo a los periodistas el domingo por la noche que había “superado las mentiras” de las encuestas y que sentía que ahora tenía una ventaja en la segunda vuelta. Incluso con los resultados favorables, también sugirió que podría haber habido fraude y advirtió que esperaría a que los militares verificaran los resultados.“Nuestro sistema no está blindado al 100 por ciento”, dijo. “Siempre existe la posibilidad de que suceda algo anormal en un sistema completamente computarizado”.Durante meses, Bolsonaro había dicho que las encuestas estaban subestimando su apoyo y como evidencia apuntaba a sus enormes mítines. Sin embargo, todas las encuestas confiables lo mostraban en desventaja. El domingo quedó claro que tenía razón. Con la mayoría de los votos contados, se desempeñó mejor en los 27 estados de Brasil de lo que Ipec, una de las encuestadoras más prestigiosas de Brasil, había pronosticado un día antes de las elecciones, al exceder las proyecciones por al menos ocho puntos porcentuales en 10 estados.Parece que los encuestadores estimaron mal la fuerza de los candidatos conservadores en todo el país. Los gobernadores y legisladores respaldados por Bolsonaro también superaron las expectativas de las encuestas y ganaron muchas de sus contiendas el domingo.Cláudio Castro, gobernador del estado de Río de Janeiro, fue reelecto de forma contundente, con el 58 por ciento de los votos, 11 puntos porcentuales por encima de lo previsto por el Ipec. Al menos siete exministros de Bolsonaro también fueron elegidos para el Congreso, entre ellos su exministro de Medioambiente, quien supervisó la deforestación vertiginosa en la Amazonía, y su exministro de Salud, quien fue criticado de manera generalizada por la demora de Brasil al comprar vacunas durante la pandemia.Antonio Lavareda, el presidente de Ipespe, otra gran encuestadora, defendió la investigación de su empresa al indicar que había predicho que Da Silva terminaría con 49 por ciento, frente al 48 por ciento que obtuvo.Sin embargo, Ipespe también anticipaba que Bolsonaro recibiría el 35 por ciento del voto, más de 8 puntos porcentuales abajo del apoyo que en realidad recibió. El margen de error de la encuesta era de 3 puntos porcentuales. (Dicha tendencia se notó en todas las encuestas: fueron casi exactas en lo referente al apoyo a Da Silva, pero muy desacertadas sobre Bolsonaro).Lavareda especuló que muchos votantes que dijeron que votarían por candidatos menos populares al final se inclinaron por Bolsonaro, o que habían mentido en las encuestas.Afuera de la casa de Bolsonaro, en un barrio acomodado junto a la playa en Río de Janeiro, sus seguidores se reunieron para celebrar, bailar y beber cerveza. Muchos llevaban la camiseta verde amarela de la selección nacional de fútbol de Brasil, que se ha convertido en una especie de uniforme para muchos de los seguidores de Bolsonaro. (El presidente usó una para votar, sobre lo que parecía ser un chaleco antibalas o un chaleco protector).“Esperábamos que tuviera una ventaja del 70 por ciento” de los votos, dijo Silvana Maria Lenzir, de 65 años, una mujer jubilada que llevaba calcomanías del rostro de Bolsonaro que cubrían su pecho. “Las encuestas no reflejan la realidad”.El presidente Jair Bolsonaro en un mitin en Campinas, estado de Sao Paulo, el mes pasadoVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesAún así, durante las próximas cuatro semanas, Bolsonaro tendrá que recuperar terreno frente a Da Silva, quien obtuvo más votos el domingo. El presidente de derecha está tratando de evitar convertirse en el primer presidente en funciones que pierde la reelección desde el inicio de la democracia moderna en Brasil, en 1988.Al mismo tiempo, Da Silva intenta completar un sorprendente resurgimiento político que hace años parecía impensable.Aunque terminó la noche como el candidato más votado, el discurso que pronunció ante sus seguidores tomó un tono sombrío. Pero dijo que agradecía la oportunidad de debatir ahora con Bolsonaro frente a frente.“Podemos comparar el Brasil que él construyó y el Brasil que construimos nosotros”, dijo. “Mañana comienza la campaña”.Antiguo obrero metalúrgico y líder sindical que estudió hasta quinto grado, Da Silva dirigió Brasil durante su auge en la primera década del siglo. Luego fue condenado por cargos de corrupción después de dejar el cargo y pasó 580 días en prisión. El año pasado, el Supremo Tribunal Federal anuló esas condenas, al dictaminar que el juez de sus casos era parcial, y los votantes apoyaron al hombre conocido simplemente como Lula.Los dos hombres son los políticos más prominentes —y polarizantes— del país. La izquierda brasileña ve a Bolsonaro como una amenaza peligrosa para la democracia del país y su posición en la escena mundial, mientras que los conservadores del país ven a Da Silva como un exconvicto que fue parte central de un vasto esquema de corrupción que ayudó a corromper las instituciones de Brasil.Da Silva, de 76 años, propone a los votantes un plan para aumentar los impuestos a los ricos a fin de ampliar los servicios para los pobres, incluido un aumento al salario mínimo y alimento y vivienda para más personas.Simpatizantes del Partido de los Trabajadores de Da Silva reaccionando a los resultados electorales en Brasilia, el domingo.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesDa Silva ha hecho su campaña con promesas amplias para un futuro mejor, que incluye el compromiso de que los brasileños disfruten de tres comidas al día. Sus mítines se han apoyado mucho en su imagen de hombre común, con bastantes referencias a la cerveza, la cachaza y la picaña, el corte de carne más famoso de Brasil.Bolsonaro, de 67 años, ha basado su campaña en proteger las tradiciones conservadoras de Brasil de lo que califica como amenazas de las élites de izquierda. Su lema de campaña fue “Dios, familia, patria y libertad”, y prometió luchar contra cosas como la legalización de las drogas, el aborto legalizado, los derechos de las personas transgénero y las restricciones a la libertad de religión y de expresión.Además, Bolsonaro quiere aumentar aún más el acceso a las armas de fuego, repitiendo en su discurso de campaña que “las personas armadas nunca serán esclavizadas”. Uno de sus principales logros durante su primer mandato fue el aumento vertiginoso de la posesión de armas.Para enfrentar la amplia brecha que mostraban las encuestas, Bolsonaro amplió recientemente los programas de bienestar social para las familias pobres y se comprometió a continuar con esas políticas durante su segundo mandato.Bolsonaro también ha dicho que quiere vender la compañía petrolera estatal de Brasil, facilitar la explotación minera en la selva amazónica y seguir reduciendo las regulaciones de la industria. Muchas empresas han acogido con agrado el enfoque de libre mercado de Bolsonaro, pero ha provocado un aumento de la destrucción medioambiental.Simpatizantes del presidente Jair Bolsonaro festejando en Brasilia, el domingo.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesLa elección podría tener importantes consecuencias para la mayor selva tropical del mundo. Aunque Bolsonaro ha dicho que tomará medidas enérgicas contra las violaciones al medio ambiente, ha recortado los fondos y el personal de los organismos encargados de hacer cumplir las leyes medioambientales, al tiempo que ha puesto en duda las estadísticas que muestran la destrucción de la selva durante su primer mandato.Da Silva hizo campaña con la promesa de erradicar la minería y la tala ilegales, y dijo que presionaría a los agricultores para que utilizaran las zonas de la selva que ya habían sido taladas.La elección de Da Silva ampliaría una serie de victorias de la izquierda en toda América Latina, alimentada por una ola de reacción contra los gobernantes en el poder. Si es elegido, seis de los siete países más grandes de la región habrán escogido líderes de izquierda desde 2018.El primer mandato de Bolsonaro ha estado marcado por la agitación, incluidos enfrentamientos con los tribunales, escándalos de corrupción y una pandemia que mató a más personas que en cualquier otro lugar, excepto Estados Unidos. Pero lo que ha alarmado a muchos brasileños y a la comunidad internacional han sido sus insinuaciones de que no abandonará el poder si no gana.El año pasado, Bolsonaro dijo a sus partidarios que había tres resultados en las elecciones: gana, lo matan o lo arrestan. Luego añadió: “Díganle a los bastardos que nunca seré apresado”.Bolsonaro lleva años poniendo en duda la seguridad del sistema de votación electrónica de Brasil, a pesar de que no ha habido pruebas de un fraude generalizado en el sistema desde que Brasil empezó a usarlo a finales de los años noventa.Cuatro días antes de la votación del domingo, su partido político publicó un documento de dos páginas en el que afirmaba, sin pruebas, que algunos trabajadores y contratistas del gobierno tenían el “poder absoluto de manipular los resultados electorales sin dejar huella”. Los funcionarios electorales respondieron que las afirmaciones “son falsas y deshonestas” y “un claro intento de obstaculizar y trastocar” las elecciones.Un día después, en el debate final antes de la votación del domingo, se le preguntó a Bolsonaro si aceptaría los resultados de las elecciones. No respondió.Inspección, prueba y sellado de máquinas de votación electrónicas en São Paulo, el mes pasado.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesFlávia Milhorance More

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      Bolsonaro Outperforms Polls and Forces Runoff Against Lula in Brazil’s Presidential Election

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      The two political titans will face off again later this month in a race widely seen as a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies.RIO DE JANEIRO — For months, pollsters and analysts had said that President Jair Bolsonaro was doomed. He faced a wide and unwavering deficit in Brazil’s high-stakes presidential race, and in recent weeks, the polls had suggested he could even lose in the first round, ending his presidency after just one term.Instead, it was Mr. Bolsonaro who was celebrating. While the challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president, finished the night ahead, Mr. Bolsonaro far outperformed forecasts and sent the race to a runoff.Mr. da Silva received 48.4 percent of the votes, and Mr. Bolsonaro 43.23 percent, with 99.87 percent of the ballots counted, according to Brazil’s elections agency. Mr. da Silva needed to exceed 50 percent to be elected president in the first round.They will face off on Oct. 30 in what is widely regarded as the most important vote in decades for Latin America’s largest nation.That is partly because of the starkly different visions the two men set forth for this country of 217 million people, and partly because Brazil faces a host of challenges, including environmental threats, rising hunger, a sputtering economy and a deeply polarized population.The former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking after election results were announced on Sunday. Mr. da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro will face each other in a runoff later this month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesBut the election will also be widely watched in Brazil and abroad because it is seen as a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies. For months, Mr. Bolsonaro has criticized the nation’s electronic voting machines as rife with fraud — without any evidence — and has suggested that the only way he would lose is if the election is rigged.Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters late Sunday that he “overcame the lies” in the polls and that he felt he now had an advantage in the second round. Even with the positive results, he also suggested there could have been fraud, saying he would wait for the military to check the results. “Our system is not 100 percent ironclad,” he said. “There’s always the possibility of something abnormal happening in a fully computerized system.”Mr. Bolsonaro had claimed for months that the polls were underestimating his support, using his enormous rallies as evidence. Yet, virtually every poll showed him behind. On Sunday, it was clear that he was right. He performed better in all of Brazil’s 27 states than what Ipec, one of Brazil’s biggest polling firms, had predicted a day before the election, exceeding the projections by at least 8 percentage points in 10 states.Pollsters appeared to misjudge the strength of conservative candidates across the country. Governors and lawmakers supported by Mr. Bolsonaro also outperformed polls, winning many of their races on Sunday.Cláudio Castro, the right-wing governor of Rio de Janeiro state, was re-elected in a landslide, with 58 percent of votes, 11 percentage points more than Ipec’s projection. At least seven of Mr. Bolsonaro’s former ministers were also elected to Congress, including his former environment minister, who oversaw skyrocketing deforestation in the Amazon, and his former health minister, who was widely criticized for Brazil’s delay in buying vaccines during the pandemic.Antonio Lavareda, the president of Ipespe, another top polling company, defended his firm’s research, pointing out that it had predicted Mr. da Silva would finish with 49 percent, versus the 48 percent he received. Yet Ipespe also predicted Mr. Bolsonaro would receive 35 percent of the vote, more than 8 percentage points below his actual support. The poll’s margin of error was 3 percentage points. (That trend played out across the polls; they were nearly accurate on Mr. da Silva’s support, but far off on Mr. Bolsonaro’s.)Mr. Lavareda speculated that many voters who had said they would vote for less popular candidates had switched to Mr. Bolsonaro — or that they had lied to the pollsters.Outside Mr. Bolsonaro’s home in a rich, beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro, his supporters gathered to celebrate, dancing and drinking out of plastic cups of beer. Many were wearing the bright yellow jerseys of Brazil’s national soccer team, which has become a sort of uniform for many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters. (The president wore one to vote, over what appeared to be a flak jacket or protective vest.)“We expected he would have an advantage of 70 percent” of the votes, said Silvana Maria Lenzir, 65, a retiree with stickers of Mr. Bolsonaro’s face covering her chest. “Polls do not reflect reality.”President Jair Bolsonaro at a rally in Campinas, São Paulo state, last month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesStill, over the next four weeks, Mr. Bolsonaro will have to make up ground on Mr. da Silva, who held the top spot on Sunday. The right-wing president is trying to avoid becoming the first incumbent to lose his re-election bid since the start of Brazil’s modern democracy in 1988.At the same time, Mr. da Silva is trying to complete a stunning political revival that years ago had seemed unthinkable.While Mr. da Silva ended the night as the front-runner, his speech to supporters took on a somber tone. But he said he welcomed the chance to now debate Mr. Bolsonaro one-on-one.“We can compare the Brazil he built and the Brazil we built,” he said. “Tomorrow the campaign starts.”A former metalworker and union leader with a fifth-grade education, Mr. da Silva led Brazil during its boom in the first decade of the century. He was then convicted on corruption charges after he left office and spent 580 days in prison. Last year, the Supreme Court threw out those charges, ruling the judge in his cases was biased, and voters have since rallied behind the man known simply as Lula.The two men are the country’s most prominent — and polarizing — politicians. The left in Brazil views Mr. Bolsonaro as a dangerous threat to the nation’s democracy and its standing on the world stage, while the country’s conservatives see Mr. da Silva as an ex-convict who was a central part of a vast corruption scheme that helped rot Brazil’s institutions. Mr. da Silva, 76, is pitching voters on a plan to raise taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, including widening the social safety net, increasing the minimum wage and feeding and housing more people.Supporters of Mr. da Silva’s Workers’ Party reacting to election results in Brasília, on Sunday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. da Silva has built his campaign around broad promises for a better future, including a pledge that all Brazilians should be able to enjoy three meals a day. His rallies have also heavily leaned on his Everyman image, with plenty of references to beer, cachaça and picanha, Brazil’s most famous cut of meat.Mr. Bolsonaro, 67, has made his campaign about protecting Brazil’s conservative traditions from what he says are threats from leftist elites. He has made his campaign slogan “God, family, homeland and liberty,” and he has vowed to fight against things like legalized drugs, legalized abortion, transgender rights and restrictions on freedom of religion and free speech. Mr. Bolsonaro wants to further increase access to firearms, repeating in his stump speech that “armed people will never be enslaved.” One of his main accomplishments during his first term was soaring gun ownership.Facing a wide gap in polls, Mr. Bolsonaro recently expanded social welfare for poor families, and he has pledged to continue those policies during his second term.Mr. Bolsonaro has also said he wants to sell Brazil’s state-owned oil company, make it easier to mine in the Amazon rainforest and continue to reduce regulations on industry. Many businesses have welcomed Mr. Bolsonaro’s free-market approach, but it has led to soaring environmental destruction.Supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro cheering in Brasília, on Sunday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesThe election could be consequential for the world’s largest rainforest. While Mr. Bolsonaro has said he would crack down on environmental violations, he has cut funding and staffing for the agencies tasked with enforcing environmental laws, while casting doubt on statistics that show the destruction of the forest during his first term.Mr. da Silva campaigned on a promise to eradicate illegal mining and logging, and said he would push farmers to use areas of the forest that had already been cleared.Mr. da Silva’s election would extend a string of leftist victories across Latin America, fueled by a wave of anti-incumbent backlash. If elected, six of the region’s seven largest countries will have chosen leftist leaders since 2018.Mr. Bolsonaro’s first term has been marked by turmoil, including clashes with the courts, corruption scandals and a pandemic that killed more people than anywhere other than the United States. But it has been his suggestions that he won’t relinquish power if he is voted that has alarmed many Brazilians and the international community.Last year, Mr. Bolsonaro told his supporters there were three outcomes to the election: He wins, he is killed or he is arrested. He then added, “Tell the bastards I’ll never be arrested.”Mr. Bolsonaro has questioned Brazil’s electronic voting machines for years, despite the fact that there has been no evidence of widespread fraud in the system since Brazil began using it in the late 1990s.Four days before Sunday’s vote, his political party released a two-page document that claimed, without evidence, that some government employees and contractors had the “absolute power to manipulate election results without leaving a trace.” Election officials called those claims “false and dishonest” and “a clear attempt to hinder and disrupt” the election.A day later, at the final debate before Sunday’s vote, Mr. Bolsonaro was asked directly if he would accept the election’s results. He did not answer.Inspecting, testing and sealing electronic voting machines in São Paulo, last month.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesFlávia Milhorance More