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      Hurricane Helene Deaths Will Continue for Years, Study Suggests

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      Research on hundreds of tropical storms finds that mortality keeps rising for more than a decade afterward, for reasons you might not expect.Over the past week, the official death toll from Hurricane Helene has surpassed 100 as the vortex creeping inland from Florida submerged homes and swept away cars. But the full weight of lost lives will be realized only years from now — and it could number in the thousands.A paper published in the journal Nature on Wednesday lays out the hidden toll of tropical storms in the continental United States. Looking at 501 events from 1930 to 2015, researchers found that the average tropical storm resulted in an additional 7,000 to 11,000 deaths over the 15 years that followed.Overall during the study period, tropical storms killed more people than automobile crashes, infectious diseases and combat for U.S. soldiers. It’s such a big number — especially compared with the 24 direct deaths caused by hurricanes on average, according to federal statistics — that the authors spent years checking the math to make sure they were right.“The scale of these results is dramatically different from what we expected,” said Solomon Hsiang, a professor of global environmental policy at the Doerr School of Sustainability at Stanford University, who conducted the study with Rachel Young, the Ciriacy-Wantrup postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Berkeley.The pair used a technique that has also provided a more complete understanding of “excess deaths” caused by Covid-19 and heat waves. It works by looking at typical mortality patterns and isolating anomalies that could have been caused only by the variable under study — in this case, a sizable storm.Previously, researchers examined deaths and hospitalizations after hurricanes over much shorter periods. One study published in Nature found elevated hospitalizations among older Medicaid patients in the week after a storm. Another, in The Journal of the American Medical Association, associated higher death rates with U.S. counties hit by cyclones. A study in The Lancet found that across 14 countries, cyclones led to a 6 percent bump in mortality in the ensuing two weeks.Deaths from tropical storms in the U.S. have been spiking Fatalities connected to storms that struck as many as 15 years ago – measured as the number of deaths above what would otherwise be expected – are rising faster as storms increase in frequency.

      Source: Solomon Hsiang and Rachel YoungBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      In Atlanta, Flooding From Helene Forced Some Residents to Wade to Safety

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      When Helene marched north through Georgia on Thursday and Friday, it caused flash flooding and power outages across the state, including an already soaked Atlanta. The city reported 21 water rescues in one highly affected area, and about 100,000 households overall were without electricity on Friday, with flash flood emergency alerts for the region in effect. Mayor Andre Dickens declared a state of emergency. In Buckhead and other northern Atlanta neighborhoods, a swollen Peachtree Creek, a 7.5-mile waterway that flows into the Chattahoochee River, helped fuel the flooding in some apartments and houses that forced some residents to flee, wading through the streets. Murky-brown water rushed through the Peachtree Park Apartments subdivision in a low-lying pocket of Buckhead, pooling on the street and seeping into residences. The two-story apartment complex sits in one of the most affluent neighborhoods in Atlanta that once made national headlines for its effort to secede from the city. (It eventually did not.) Marcus Benson, who lives in the neighborhood, drifted off to sleep on Thursday after putting his infant son to bed. Mr. Benson said he was lulled by “the beautiful sounds of the water and rain” tapping against his windows and roof. But a harsh rap at his front door jolted him awake; his neighbor had come to warn him that Peachtree Creek was spilling over into their community — and fast.By around 10 p.m., the flooding had risen to about chest level, Mr. Benson said, and the rain wasn’t letting up. So Mr. Benson, 40, hoisted his 3-month-old son above his head, and he and his wife began to ford the deluge.He didn’t have time to consider the danger, even as the water crept up toward his chin. “You don’t think about it,” he explained in an interview on Friday. “You’re so cold; you’re fueled by adrenaline.” Temporarily relocated to a neighbor’s apartment, Mr. Benson said he was just happy they were all safe and dry.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Study Finds Climate Change Doubled Likelihood of Recent European Floods

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      Storm Boris dumped record amounts of rain over Central and Eastern Europe this month. A new study found climate change made the deluge more likely.Europe faced catastrophic floodwaters that affected two million people earlier this month and transformed neighborhoods and urban centers into muddy rivers. At least 24 people died, and some were reported missing.That lethal deluge, known as Storm Boris, was made twice as likely by human-induced climate change, according to a new analysis by World Weather Attribution, an international group of scientists and meteorologists who study the role of climate change in extreme weather events.The storm dropped 7 to 20 percent more rain than a similar one would have in a preindustrial world, before humans started burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse gases that have increased global temperatures.The world is heating up quickly: 2023 was the warmest year on record, and 2024 could still surpass it, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the simplest terms, warmer air holds more moisture that contributes to more intense and frequent rainfall.More than a half-dozen countries in Europe — including Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Romania, Hungary, Germany and Slovakia — saw record-breaking amounts of rain between Sept. 12 and Sept 15. The slow-moving, low-pressure system dumped up to five times September’s average rainfall over those four days. The floodwaters led to power cuts and the closure of schools, factories and hospitals.But it was only one of many flooding events that have wreaked havoc across the world in recent months.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Typhoon Shanshan Makes Landfall in Southern Japan

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      The risk of life-threatening landslides and floods was rapidly increasing in parts of Kyushu Island as the storm lashed it with relentless rain, the authorities warned.The storm unleashed torrential rain, hurricane-force winds and the threat of landslides.Kyodo, via Reuters More

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      On Hawaii’s Big Island, Hurricane Hone Brings Heavy Rain but No Major Damage

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      More than 20,000 customers were without power by Sunday afternoon, but neither the winds nor the flooding from the storm were dramatic.Hurricane Hone passed within 60 miles of Hawaii’s Big Island early Sunday, bringing heavy rain, knocking out power to thousands of customers and snapping native ohia trees like twigs.More than 20,000 customers were without electricity on Sunday afternoon on the island, which has a population of about 206,000. But Mitch Roth, the mayor of Hawaii County, which covers the Big Island, said there were no reports of injuries or major damage.Kazuo Todd, the fire chief for Hawaii County, said that nearly 18 inches of rain had fallen around the volcanoes in the southern part the island. But so far, neither the winds nor the flooding had been dramatic.“We do live on an island in the Pacific where the water can drain off into the ocean relatively quickly,” Chief Todd said.Forecasters predicted that Hone, which was a Category 1 storm as it was spinning westward below the islands on Sunday, could still bring up to 20 inches of rain to some areas. As the storm moves, it will slow down and push moisture over all the islands, increasing the potential for heavy rainfall statewide and the threat of flash flooding in some areas.Floodwaters flow through a soccer complex in Hilo, Hawaii, as a result of heavy rains.Bruce Omori for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      In Hawaii, a Sense of Alertness Without Panic Ahead of Tropical Storm Hone

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      Although the storm is not expected to pass directly over the Big Island, forecasters warned of threats including flooding and damaging winds.Debbie Arita, an office manager at a supermarket in Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii, took stock of the conditions. Tropical Storm Hone was approaching the region, but the scene on Friday was far from chaotic — no frantic rush for supplies, no desperate boarding up of windows.To Ms. Arita, who said she has been through her fair share of hurricanes and tsunamis, the prevailing mood seemed to be alertness without anxiousness.“There’s no sense of panic here,” she said.Hone (pronounced ho-NAY) is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Hawaii as it passes near or south of the Big Island late Saturday into early Sunday. Forecasters have warned of the potential for damaging winds, life-threatening surf and flash floods.Officials and residents largely said they were preparing, but not with alarm. While a landfall of a named storm on Hawaii is rare, storms frequently come close enough to affect the islands’ weather. Mitch Roth, the mayor of Hawaii County, which covers the Big Island, wants residents to remain watchful. “We want people to be prepared for any kind of hazard,” Mr. Roth said. In August 2018, Hurricane Lane drenched the Big Island with 58 inches of rainfall, damaged over 100 buildings and killed one person — despite the eye of the storm passing over 100 miles south of the state.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Deadly Landslides in India Made Worse by Climate Change, Study Finds

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      Extreme rainfall made 10 percent heavier by human-caused climate change triggered landslides that killed hundreds, according to a new study.A sudden burst of rainfall on July 30 caused a cascade of landslides that buried hundreds of people in the mountainous Kerala region of southern India.That downpour was 10 percent heavier because of human-caused climate change, according to a study by World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who quantify how climate change can influence extreme weather. Nearly six inches, or 150 millimeters, of rain fell on soils already highly saturated from two months of monsoon and marked the third highest single-day rain event on record for India.“The devastation in northern Kerala is concerning not only because of the difficult humanitarian situation faced by thousands today, but also because this disaster occurred in a continually warming world,” said Maja Vahlberg, a climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “The increase in climate-change-driven rainfall found in this study is likely to increase the number of landslides that could be triggered in the future.”In a state that is highly prone to landslides, the Wayanad district is considered the riskiest part. As of Tuesday, at least 231 people had died and 100 remained missing.The Kerala landslides were the second extreme landslide event in July, following one in Ethiopia that killed 257 people. July was the second-worst month on record, after July 2019, with 95 landslide events that caused 1,167 fatalities, according to data maintained by Dave Petley, the vice-chancellor of the University of Hull. Together, they caused roughly one-third of the more than 3,600 deaths resulting from some 429 fatal landslides recorded this year, Dr. Petley said in an email.Already, 2024 is an outlier, Dr. Petley posted to The Landslide Blog on Tuesday. He wrote that he could “only speculate on the likely underlying reasons for this very high incidence of fatal landslides,” but “the most likely cause continues to be the exceptionally high global surface temperatures, and the resultant increase in high intensity rainfall events.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Parts of Florida Under State of Emergency as Storm Moves Toward the Gulf

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      The storm, which could become Tropical Storm Debby, is expected to bring significant amounts of rain to the coast.The governor of Florida declared a state of emergency on Thursday as a tropical system moved toward the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to bring heavy rain, gusty winds and the potential for flash flooding.Known currently as Invest 97L, the storm could become Debby if it organizes itself into an official tropical storm. (“Invest” is meteorological shorthand for “investigative area.”)The U.S. National Weather Service warned that heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas through the weekend.Florida braces for what could be a ‘major disaster.’With heavy rainfall of at least 12 inches expected over the next seven days, Florida is bracing for the threat of flooding, along with gusty winds and erosion. On Thursday night, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in more than 50 counties, which gives emergency managers the authority to allocate resources to respond to the fallout of the extreme weather.

      Five-day precipitation forecast

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      10+ inches

      Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
      Notes:

       Values are shown only for the contiguous United States and are in inches of water or the equivalent amount of melted snow and ice.
      By Zach Levitt, Bea Malsky, Martín González Gómez and Madison Dong

      The order covers Orange County and Osceola County, and travel could be disrupted for the throngs of summer visitors who go to Orlando and the theme parks at Universal Studios Florida and Walt Disney World.Water tables in some areas are already saturated, the governor said, and the incoming rainfall “will cause significant river flooding that may last for several weeks.” The storm could damage “major interstates and roadways, bridges, airports, schools, hospitals, power grids and other critical infrastructure,” Mr. DeSantis said. It was expected to also cause widespread power outages from downed trees and power lines.The National Hurricane Center said that an aircraft would investigate the storm on Friday if needed, and it warned officials in Cuba and the Bahamas to monitor its progress.Specialists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, which falls under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tracking Hurricane Beryl in July.Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More