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    Tariff Uncertainty Threatens to Drag Down Europe’s Economic Growth

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    The European Union scaled back its forecast for growth in 2025 by nearly half a percent, as the jump in tariffs and surrounding chaos bite.Europe’s economy will grow more slowly than expected this year, dragged down by trade uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs, despite increasingly stable prices on consumer goods and energy, European Union economists said on Monday.In its spring economic forecast, the European Commission, the trade bloc’s administrative arm, said it expected the gross domestic product of the 20 countries using the euro to grow just 0.9 percent in 2025, down from the 1.3 percent that had been forecast last fall. Economic growth across the European Union is expected to increase 1.1 percent in the same period, down from a previous expectation of 1.5 percent, the commission said.Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has been hit particularly hard by the increase in tariffs, with the commission expecting that country’s economy to stagnate as exports decline 1.9 percent in 2025. France also had its projected growth rate cut to 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent, and Italy’s fell to 0.7 percent from 1 percent.“Heightened global uncertainty and trade tensions are weighing on E.U. growth,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner responsible for the trade bloc’s economy, told reporters in Brussels.The commission added that any de-escalation of the tensions between Europe and the United States set off by Mr. Trump’s imposition of a 10-percent import tax on European good could lead to stronger growth, as could new free trade agreements with other economic partners.On Monday, Britain and the European Union reached a deal aimed at removing some of the barriers to trade that Brexit had introduced.Growth is expected to return in 2026, the commission said, but it also scaled that projection back to 1.4 percent for the euro area, down from a previously projected 1.6 percent.One bright spot is the continued robustness of the European labor market, Mr. Dombrovskis said, citing 1.7 million jobs added last year and an expected two million to be added in the coming year.Increased spending on armaments and the military could help spur more growth across Europe, the commission said. The 500 billion euros the German government plans to invest in its defense infrastructure were not included in the forecast for this year, but they were expected to contribute a full percentage point to growth by 2028, Mr. Dombrovskis said.Germany has been stuck in stagnation for three years running, dragging down growth across all of the European Union.The economists also warned that the threat of further natural disasters, related to changes in the global climate, were a risk to growth. Europe suffered widespread flooding and extreme heat in 2024, and the continent is bracing for more extreme weather this year. More

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      India and UK Strike Trade Deal Amid Trump’s Tariff Upheaval

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      The two countries signed a deal three years after negotiations began to strengthen alliances in what the British prime minister called a “new era” of trade.Britain and India agreed to a trade deal on Tuesday, strengthening economic ties between two of the world’s largest economies amid President Trump’s upheaval of the global trade system.The deal, which the British government said would increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion ($34 billion), comes three years after the negotiations began. Intense talks between Jonathan Reynolds, Britain’s business and trade secretary, and Piyush Goyal, India’s commerce minister, took place last week to finalize the outstanding issues.The British government said India had reduced 90 percent of tariffs on goods, and within a decade most of those would become tariff free. Duties on British whiskey and gin would be halved, to 75 percent, and eventually be lowered to 40 percent. India will also reduce its car tariffs, which exceed 100 percent, to 10 percent under a quota. Britain, in turn, reduced tariffs on clothes, footwear and food products including frozen prawns.Last year, trade in goods and services between India and Britain, the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies, totaled £42.6 billion, according to British data.The trade agreement comes as many countries are seeking to bolster alliances and trade flows after Mr. Trump sent shock waves through the global economy by announcing, and then pausing, high tariffs on dozens of countries. The uncertainty created by the policy whiplash is expected to dampen investment and economic growth around the world.Officials in Britain, which squeezed out 0.1 percent economic growth in the final quarter of last year, have tried to increase investment from foreign companies and sign more trade deals. Other negotiations, including those with South Korea, are continuing.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Canada’s Political Landscape Upended by Trump, Trudeau and Tariffs

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      After nearly a decade in power, the Liberal Party seemed destined to be swept out on a wave of anti-incumbency sentiment. Then events took a surprising turn.Until January, polls suggested that the Conservative Party would handily regain power from the Liberals in any Canadian election held this year.Two things overturned that expectation: the resignation of Justin Trudeau as prime minister and President Trump’s trade war with Canada, along with his threat to annex the country and make it the 51st state by sowing economic chaos.Trump’s Trade WarWhile Mr. Trump pulled back from his initial threat of tariffs on everything imported from Canada, he has imposed several measures that hit key sectors of Canada’s economy: a 25 percent tariff on automobiles, aluminum and steel, and a similar one on Canadian exports that do not qualify as North American goods under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which he signed during his first term in office. An auto parts tariff of 25 percent is scheduled to take effect on Saturday. Last week, Mr. Trump suggested that the automobile tariffs, which are reduced based on their U.S.-made content, could be increased. He offered no specifics.Autos and auto parts are Canada’s largest exports to the United States, outside oil and gas. Canada Hits BackUnder Mr. Trudeau, Canada placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods coming into Canada that are expected to generate 30 billion Canadian dollars, about $22 billion, in revenue over a year.After becoming prime minister in March, Mark Carney imposed an additional 8 billion Canadian dollars, about $5.7 billion, in tariffs, including a 25 percent levy on autos made in the United States — but not on auto parts. Automakers with assembly lines in Canada will still largely be able to bring in American-made cars of those brands duty free.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China Girds for Economic Stress of Trump’s Tariffs

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      The economy grew steadily from January through March, but U.S. tariffs pose a risk for China in the coming weeks and months.President Trump’s tariffs have been good for China’s economic growth. At least they were over the first three months of the year, as the country’s factories raced to ship exports ahead of the trade restrictions.China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.2 percent from the last three months of 2024. If that pace continues, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of 4.9 percent.But whether China can maintain that growth is shrouded in uncertainty.Pinned down by tariffs that threaten to freeze trade with its biggest customer, China’s economy is facing one of its greatest challenges in years.Growth in the early months of this year was propelled by rapidly rising exports and the manufacturing investment and production necessary to support those exports. Sales of electric cars, household appliances, consumer electronics and furniture were also strong because of ever-widening government subsidies for buyers.Then on April 2, Mr. Trump started escalating tariffs, which reached an extraordinary 145 percent for more than half of China’s exports to the United States.Mr. Trump’s first two rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, 10 percent in February and again in March, had little immediate effect on exports. China’s overall exports in March rose 12.4 percent in dollar terms from a year earlier, as some exporters appeared to rush shipments to docks before tariffs could go even higher.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      UK Cuts Tariffs on Dozens of Products as Global Trade Tensions Rise

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      British officials also announced more financing for exporters as the country sought to protect firms hurt by tariffs.The British government ramped up actions to help protect businesses and households from some of the economic tumult created by President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs and upend the norms of global trade.The government said on Sunday it would suspend tariffs on 89 products for about two years to help businesses and consumers save money. The products include those for construction, such as plywood and plastics, and everyday household items, such as pasta and fruit juices.Officials will also increase financing support for exporters by 20 billion pounds ($26 billion), through partial loan guarantees, and give small businesses access to loans of up to £2 million.As Mr. Trump raises tariffs on most imports, including those from Britain, to a 10 percent base line and even higher for certain goods like cars and steel, the British government has sought to calm anxieties at home. Officials have said they want to move quickly to support companies as they try to sustain fragile economic momentum.“This week, we witnessed the uncertainty of a changing world,” Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the Exchequer, wrote in The Observer, a Sunday newspaper. In response, the government “must rise to meet the moment,” she wrote.The announcements on Sunday followed other interventions by the government in recent days to bolster protections for firms affected by tariffs. On April 6, the government eased rules on electric vehicle sales after Mr. Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on cars imported into the United States. British officials also relaxed regulations to speed up timelines for clinical trials to support the life sciences sector with Mr. Trump also expected to impose levies on the pharmaceutical industry.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Southeast Asia, With Little Leverage, Seeks to Placate Trump on Trade

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      Southeast Asian leaders, their export-driven economies in peril, are trying to placate the president. “We may have to comply,” Thailand’s finance minister said.They were hit by some of President Trump’s most punishing tariffs, in one case as high as 49 percent. The new levies threatened to cripple their economies, which have prospered by making sneakers and tech goods for American consumers.So Southeast Asian countries like Cambodia and Vietnam rushed to appease Mr. Trump. They promised not to retaliate, unlike China and Europe. And they proposed to reduce or even eliminate their own tariffs on American imports.On Thursday, the region woke up to the good news that Mr. Trump had paused his “reciprocal” tariffs. The president suggested he had reversed course because of the market turmoil they had caused. Still, Southeast Asia is sticking with its conciliatory approach.In a statement on Thursday, the economic ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, known as Asean, said the 10-country bloc was “united in the opinion that retaliation is not an option.” (The ministers were in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for a meeting that had been previously scheduled.)Despite Mr. Trump’s 90-day pause, the anxiety here is palpable. His tariffs, the Asean statement said, are “introducing uncertainty and undermining trust in the global trade system.” Millions of livelihoods in the region are on the line. Thailand’s finance minister, Pichai Chunhavajira, acknowledged that the White House had leverage over his nation in matters of trade.“This is how you negotiate,” Mr. Pichai said in an interview. “You start with an extreme measure and then ease your demand along the way. We may have to comply.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs: From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’

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      Economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused President Trump to reverse course on the steep levies.For the past week, President Trump has been urging calm in the face of the financial chaos that he created and resisting calls for him to rethink his approach.“I know what the hell I’m doing,” he told Republicans on Tuesday as the massive tariffs he had imposed sent global markets into a tailspin. “BE COOL!” he said in a social media post on Wednesday morning. “Everything is going to work out well.”At 9:37 a.m. Wednesday, the president was still bullish on his policy, posting on Truth Social: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”But in the end, it was the markets that got him to reverse course.The economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused Mr. Trump to blink on Wednesday afternoon and pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, according to four people with direct knowledge of the president’s decision.Asked to explain the decision, Mr. Trump told reporters: “Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”Behind the scenes, senior members of Mr. Trump’s team had feared a financial panic that could spiral out of control and potentially devastate the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others on the president’s team, including Vice President JD Vance, had been pushing for a more structured approach to the trade conflict that would focus on isolating China as the worst actor while still sending a broader message that Mr. Trump was serious about cracking down on trade imbalances.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Britain Lost Out on Euro Disney. Now It’s Getting a Universal Theme Park.

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      A yet-to-be-named Universal Studios theme park will be the country’s largest tourist attraction when it opens in 2031. But studio executives have not yet said which characters will be featured.Universal Studios will build its first European theme park in Bedfordshire, England, studio officials said Wednesday, previewing a sprawling resort that could combine iconic American brands like “Jurassic Park” with classic British characters like Paddington Bear, Dr. Who and Harry Potter.Set to open in 2031, British officials said the yet-to-be-named theme park would be Britain’s largest single tourist attraction. Executives at Comcast, Universal’s parent company, said the 476-acre complex would include themed lands, rides, a 500-room hotel, shops and dining.Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, hailed the announcement as a boost for his country’s sluggish economy and an example of his government’s attempt to cut through the red tape that has long made it costly and difficult to complete complex projects in Britain.“Today we closed the deal on a multibillion-pound investment that will see Bedford home to one of the biggest entertainment parks in Europe,” Mr. Starmer said in a statement, adding that the project would create around 28,000 jobs.The theme park, which Mr. Starmer said would generate nearly $64 billion (£50 billion) in revenue for the area by 2055, is a rare bright spot at a moment when the British economy has been barely growing.But it will be years before the doors open to the public as the company transforms what is a bare piece of land about 35 minutes north of London by train. That delay creates the kind of uncertainty that has sometimes doomed previous theme park efforts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.K. Boosts Military Spending and Cuts Welfare in ‘Uncertain World’

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      The changes come as President Trump’s tariff threats have disrupted global trade and added pressure to the British government’s already strained budget.The British government on Wednesday laid out plans for higher military spending and cuts to social benefits, as it sought to keep the nation’s finances on track in what it called a “more uncertain world.”Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said there would be an extra 2.2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) for defense in the fiscal year that begins next month. And she reiterated recently announced reductions to the benefits system that were expected to save about £5 billion by 2030.The changes come as President Trump’s economic policies have disrupted the global economy, putting more demands on the British government’s already stretched budget. Like many other European countries, Britain has pledged to spend more on defense to support Ukraine against Russia. At the same time, the threat of a global trade war is lurking and interest rates have increased, pushing up government borrowing costs.“Our task is to secure Britain’s future in a world that is changing before our eyes,” Ms. Reeves said in Parliament on Wednesday.“The job of a responsible government is not simply to watch this change,” she added. “This moment demands an active government.”Adding to the hurdles, the British economy slowed in the second half of last year, and the Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent watchdog, halved its forecast for growth this year to 1 percent from 2 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More