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    China’s Economic Plan Is Light on Detail as Trade War Intensifies

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    The country’s top leaders set an optimistic growth target but gave few hints of how to achieve it as their export-led strategy is challenged by rising tariffs on Chinese goods.For months, China has promised to help its people spend more to turn the economy around, while taking few concrete measures.On Wednesday, the country’s top leaders pledged to “vigorously” boost spending but once again offered limited details and little money to back it up.The government’s budget and annual work report, released on the most important day in China’s political calendar, during the meeting in Beijing called the National People’s Congress, set an optimistic target of 5 percent growth but gave scant indication of how the economy would get there without another surge in exports this year. China’s reliance on trade for growth faces fresh challenges as the United States and many other countries have raised tariffs on Chinese goods.“The headwinds remain very strong on growth: The property market hasn’t stabilized and consumer confidence remains low,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS. “Now we have a fresh wave of tariffs and who knows what else will come. Policy needs to do the heavy lifting.”Here are some key takeaways from China’s budget — and what it means for one of the world’s biggest economies.Beijing to consumers: Spend, spend, spend!China is one of the few places in the world with deflation, an economic condition in which many prices are falling. That might sound appealing to Americans struggling with hefty bills for groceries and other expenses, but it can be a crippling problem: Many companies and households have seen their earnings shrink in recent years. Deflation also raises the cost of debt payments and encourages consumers to put off purchases on the expectation of prices being lower in the future.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China Signals Confidence in Economy Despite Sluggish Growth and U.S. Trade War

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      As Chinese leaders meet in Beijing, they are striking a confident posture in the face of pressure and uncertainty from the United States.China’s top leaders sought to project confidence in the country’s economy on Wednesday despite sluggish growth, an escalating trade war with the United States and growing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Trump administration.The government will aim to expand China’s economy by “around 5 percent” this year, said Premier Li Qiang, China’s highest-ranking official after Xi Jinping, at the opening of the annual session of the country’s rubber-stamp legislature.“Achieving this year’s targets will not be easy, and we must make arduous efforts to meet them,” Mr. Li said, acknowledging that the economy faced many challenges. But he struck a positive note about the country’s prospects, saying: “The underlying trend of long term economic growth has not changed and will not change. The giant ship of China’s economy will continue to cleave the waves and sail steadily toward the future.”The meeting in Beijing, called the National People’s Congress, is a tightly scripted political pageant, showcasing how Mr. Xi plans to lead China through what he has often described as “great changes unseen in a century” around the world.That vision includes lifting China’s technological prowess and self-reliance and beefing up its military capabilities so it can dominate the Asia-Pacific region. It is focused on strengthening the ruling Communist Party’s grip on power by making national security a priority for all facets of Chinese society.Security at the legislative session, which brings around 3,000 delegates to the Great Hall of the People, is also a top priority. Uniformed and plainclothes police and soldiers were posted at several checkpoints on major roads near the venue and on pedestrian bridges, while entrances at nearby subway stations were temporarily closed.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Japan’s Economy Recovered In Second Half But Barely Grew in 2024

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      Though it recovered in the second half of the year, Japan’s economy barely grew in 2024 as a depreciated yen fueled inflation and strained households.For decades in Japan, it was accepted as gospel: A weak currency makes companies more competitive and bolsters the economy.Part of that promise came true last year: As the yen tumbled to a 37-year low against the dollar, big brands like Toyota Motor reported the highest profits in Japanese history. Stocks soared to record highs.Yet for the majority of Japanese households, the weakened yen has done little more than drive up the costs of basic living expenses, such as food and electricity. Figures released Monday showed that while Japan’s economy picked up pace in the second half of 2024, its inflation-adjusted growth rate for the full year slowed to 0.1 percent. That was down from 1.5 percent the prior year.Attempting to stimulate exports by weakening a currency has long been a policy tool for countries seeking economic growth: President Trump has said he wants a weaker dollar to help American manufacturing. Japan provides an example of what can happen when a depreciated currency, even if it helps exports, crushes consumer purchasing power by worsening inflation.“In economics, they teach us that everything has a benefit and a cost, and it’s about asking which is greater,” said Richard Katz, an economist who focuses on Japan. Of the yen trading at around 153 to the dollar, “this is clearly not the way to run a railroad,” Mr. Katz said. “It would be good to take a lesson from this.”The figures released on Monday show that household spending shrank slightly in 2024, after expanding in the previous three years. Unlike in the United States, where strong consumption helped the economy surge back after the Covid-19 pandemic, prolonged weak spending in Japan has left its real gross domestic product barely above prepandemic levels.

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      Japan consumer confidence index
      Source: Cabinet Office of JapanBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China Pledges More Stimulus to Shore Up Flagging Economy

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      At a meeting to set the party’s economic policy agenda, China’s leadership said it would borrow more and cut interest rates in a bid to bolster growth.China’s top leaders on Thursday pledged more stimulus measures to shore up the country’s economy, building on steps they have taken in recent months to bolster growth.At an annual gathering of the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet, led by the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, officials agreed that the government should allow a bigger budget deficit, borrow more and cut interest rates, the state television broadcaster said on Thursday.The statements suggest a willingness by Beijing to take more aggressive steps to increase spending, part of a shift that began in September to turn around years of weak consumer demand, lackluster growth and declining prices.China “will need to maintain economic growth and maintain overall stability of employment and prices next year,” the state broadcaster said at the conclusion of the two-day Central Economic Work Conference, which sets the economic agenda for the upcoming year.The Chinese government typically uses the conference to signal priorities that could translate into policy action in the next year, and to agree on budget details that will be announced at the spring legislative session.Earlier this week, the ruling Politburo gave a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to take a stronger approach on the economy, when it indicated it would be more willing to lower interest rates. It was the first time that China’s leaders had eased their stance on monetary policy since the aftermath of the global financial crisis 14 years ago.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Steel Maker ThyssenKrupp to Slash 11,000 Jobs in Germany

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      The venerable steel producer, which has been struggling against high energy prices at home and growing competition from abroad, is the latest company in Europe to cut its work force.ThyssenKrupp, the largest steel maker in Germany, said Monday that it would eliminate up to 11,000 jobs by 2030, a decision that comes as the country struggled to overcome economic weakness that has hindered growth for nearly two years.The overhaul is aimed at returning ThyssenKrupp to profitability in the face of pressure from Asian competitors and high energy prices. Compounding the challenges, President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on all goods imported to the United States. ThyssenKrupp was among those hurt by the tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on steel and aluminum during his first term in office.ThyssenKrupp said that it would reduce the amount of steel it produced each year down to no more than 10 U.S. tons, from the current level, 12.6 U.S. tons, which would allow it to eliminate 5,000 jobs. Another 6,000 jobs will be cut through the sale of business activities or turning to external providers, the company said without elaborating.“Urgent measures are required to improve ThyssenKrupp Steel’s own productivity and operating efficiency and to achieve a competitive cost level,” the company said in a statement.On Tuesday, ThyssenKrupp reduced the value of its steel division by 1 billion euros, or $1.04 billion, after posting a yearly net loss of €1.4 billion, or $1.2 billion. The company has been struggling for years to decarbonize its steel production, as the price of powering its existing coking plants has soared.Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has not had significant growth in the past two years. On Friday, the economy recorded 0.1 percent growth from July to September, but it was forecast to contract over the entire year. Economists do not expect to see a return to growth in 2025, unless the government can make significant changes quickly.Dozens of companies have announced plans over the past few months to reduce their work forces in Germany. On Friday, the auto supplier Bosch said it would cut 5,500 jobs beginning in 2027. Ford Motor said Wednesday it would eliminate 4,000 jobs in Europe, primarily in Germany.Workers at Volkswagen, Germany’s biggest automaker, are planning to begin staging warning strikes in the coming days, as they fight management plans to reduce their numbers and close up to three of the company’s 10 factories in Germany. In October, Volkswagen reported a 42 percent drop in quarterly profit and warned of an “urgent need” to cut costs amid growing competition from Chinese automakers. More

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      What the Collapse of Germany’s Ruling Coalition Means

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      After decades of relative stability, the country has entered a new era of political fragmentation and will hold new elections at a precarious time.The collapse of its governing coalition is an extraordinary moment for Germany, a country known for stable governments. It has happened only twice before in the 75 years since the modern state was founded.But like a marriage that has finally ended after years of fighting, the spectacular breakup on Wednesday night of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition was expected by most and welcomed by many.A recent national poll found that a majority of Germans wanted to end the “traffic light” coalition, named for the colors of the parties that made it up — red for the Social Democratic Party, yellow for the pro-business Free Democratic Party and green for the Greens. Only 14 percent still had confidence in the coalition, according to the same poll.Although the opposition is pushing for Mr. Scholz to end the government sooner, Wednesday’s announcement will very likely lead to early elections in March, at a precarious time for Germany both domestically and internationally.Here’s what we know about the collapse of the coalition.How did we get here?On Wednesday night, Mr. Scholz fired his finance minister, Christian Lindner, who is the head of the Free Democrats, over disagreements about the 2025 budget and the economy in general. That precipitated the end of the coalition.The coalition was initially both successful and popular. But a constitutional court ruling late in 2023, barring the government from repurposing finances left over from the pandemic, spelled the beginning of the end.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      They Barter and Trade in Rural America. How Will They Vote?

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      Many rural Americans engage in cashless barter systems to get food and firewood for heating and cooking. They value self-sufficiency, making them wary of government intervention.When Miki Shiverick needs firewood to heat her home, or help clearing the rusted appliances and vehicles from her property, she doesn’t go to a store or pay for services. Instead, she trades for it.For instance, preparing her land in Bergholz, Ohio for livestock over the last four years required hauling away piles of salvage, old tools and antiques from the rundown property she bought from the family of an old tinker. The place, with its barn house and five outbuildings, resembled a 12-acre junkyard.Ms. Shiverick, 56, found local scrappers willing to keep the profits from selling the rusted cars, campers, tractor parts, buried gas tanks and aluminum ingots at the local scrap yard. She also found woodsmen willing to clear trees for her in exchange for most of the wood.On this newly blank canvas, she dreams of creating a clean, natural retreat for her family with gardens that support wildlife and livestock, which she raises to promote food self-sufficiency and land stewardship.Bergholz is a rural town with a population of fewer than 600. For centuries, rural communities like Bergholz have operated in cashless barter systems built on mutual trust and neighborly relationships — a culture of self-sufficiency that has also shaped political views toward a kind of bootstrap conservatism.“People around here don’t do welfare, it’s not who we are,” Ms. Shiverick said.Ms. Shiverick bartered a bolt of linen with an Amish neighbor for a chicken coop.Rebecca Kiger for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      UK Budget: Labour Party to Raise Capital Gains and Inheritance Taxes

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      Rachel Reeves, the new finance minister, announced substantial tax increases in her first budget as she sought to strengthen public finances and services.The new British government, led by the Labour Party, said it would substantially raise taxes and borrow more for investment as it sought to steer the country out of a long run of economic stagnation.Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the Exchequer, delivered her first budget — and the first one ever by a woman — in Parliament on Wednesday. In a nearly 80-minute speech, Ms. Reeves announced about 40 billion pounds ($51.8 billion) in tax increases, more than half of which would come from higher taxes that employers pay on their workers’ salaries. She also increased capital gains and inheritance taxes.“The choices that I have made today are the right choices for our country,” Ms. Reeves said. “That doesn’t mean these choices are easy.”The budget was the first big opportunity for the Labour Party to set Britain’s economic agenda after it was swept into office with a large majority in July’s general election after 14 years out of power.But after a turbulent few months in office for the Labour Party, the budget has been seen as a reset moment for the party itself. Keir Starmer, the prime minister, said this week that the budget would “light the way” toward the government’s priorities of ensuring financial stability, improving public services and encouraging investment.For months, Ms. Reeves has warned that this budget would include “difficult” choices, signaling that Britons will have to swallow pain now for a bigger payoff later. These choices, government officials have said, will help the government achieve its goal of making Britain the fastest-growing economy in the Group of 7.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      What Japan’s Political Uncertainty Means for Its Market Rally

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      The long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party has lost its parliamentary majority, raising questions about the policy stability that has lured investors.The steady course of the Japanese economy and business environment that has helped attract a torrent of investment in the past two years could be undercut by the political turmoil resulting from the country’s parliamentary elections on Sunday.Japan’s economy, though not growing by leaps and bounds, has inched back from the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic. The emergence of long-sought inflation has given the Bank of Japan room to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly two decades.Following moves by Warren Buffett last year to increase his holdings in some of Japan’s biggest trading firms, investors have shifted their money to Japan from China, which has economic and geopolitical risks. Corporate earnings in Japan have remained solid and government-led changes, such as guidelines recommending takeover offers be given serious consideration, have prompted companies to take steps to enhance their appeal to investors.Stocks in Japan have experienced one of their strongest rallies in decades. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index is up nearly 50 percent since the beginning of 2023.Now, the Liberal Democrats — the political party that has governed Japan for all but four years since 1955 — has lost its majority in the powerful lower chamber of Parliament, leaving the future structure of the government and direction of its economic policies uncertain.“The reasons that Warren Buffett and others got excited about Japan are not lost, but you need the background that is a stable macro environment,” said Jesper Koll, a director at Monex Group, a financial services firm. “For now, the bastion of stability element that has made Japan attractive is not going to be working.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More