Elections, California Gubernatorial Recall (2021)

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      How is Voting Going in California? Elections Chief Says 'Smoothly'

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      With false allegations of voter fraud trailing the California recall election, we checked in with Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who oversees the state’s elections, about how voting has progressed and how her office is dealing with efforts to undermine faith in the contest. The interview has been lightly edited and condensed.How is voting going?We’ve seen over eight million ballots mailed back thus far, which is a very significant number of ballots coming in. So that in itself is rather exciting, as well as ballots still being dropped off at the ballot boxes this morning.We’ve had folks calling all of our hotlines asking where their polling places are or looking for additional information. It’s clear that people are interested in voting today.Why have people been calling the hotlines?Sometimes people have familiar polling places that they used to go to forever and now they’ve changed. We’ve had a couple of calls saying, “Where is it now?”Secretary of State Shirley Weber in Sacramento last year. Dr. Weber oversees California’s elections.Rich Pedroncelli/Associated PressWe’ve had folks who couldn’t find their ballots — misplaced them after they came in the mail. And we’ve had folks who left the state for a bit and wonder how can they still vote, those kinds of things.But we’ve had no long lines, no folks waiting. We have a wait time of zero right now.Any other hitches today?We’ve seen small things. One polling place opening 10 minutes late, that kind of stuff.Because of the fires, we’ve had some folks who moved away from their places. So we have to deal with that issue. We had one county the telephones were not servicing. We’ve just adapted and adjusted to every little new thing that comes along. But we haven’t had anything that’s been a major shutdown.For those facing difficulties because of the wildfires, what else have you done?We have made sure that all of those who were in the fire zones got their mail-in ballots.We made sure that those who had to leave or who’ve lost their homes, that they had access to voting in various other ways, in terms of being able to go to another county to vote, making sure they had their mail-in ballots, making sure they knew where the ballot boxes were in other counties or other areas. So we have made outreach to all of those who might have been affected by any fire or any kind of tragedy.We also set up remote mobile voting for our firefighters to make sure that those who are away from their homes had access to vote.How are you preparing your office for the claims and possible litigation of election fraud that Republicans say they may bring?I think the whole discussion of fraud across the nation kind of gives us a preview of what people will do. They may file various lawsuits. We know that they have been trying to collect information — they set up a website saying, ‘If you see any irregularities, show us your irregularities.’ And, you know, people go to court, and thus far across the nation, they’ve lost because there is no widespread fraud in the election process. But whether they decide to go to court or not, we will be there to defend the process.We know that they will always talk about the fact that it was a stolen election or fraud, — or there’s a new term, “shenanigans.” We have no evidence of that, and when we’ve had allegations of any type, especially if there’s any specific information, we investigated. And as most folks have found across the nation, there is no there there.So we’re not totally freaking out. We’re just making sure that everything we do is correct by the book. That we’ve taken our time to make sure that there’s transparency. And thus far, we’ve not found anything ourselves.Are there extra steps of transparency that you’ve taken in this hyperpartisan era when the process itself is contested?We do what we’ve always done. This is a unique election as a recall. But keep in mind, we’ve had four or five elections this year, special elections, as well as last November.Anytime we discover something that might be an area of concern, we do our best to make sure that we shore that up. If we discover that somebody is complaining that the signs are too small, they couldn’t really see a sign at a voting booth, we try to make sure that next time, we do more. If folks feel disenfranchised because of language, if there’s enough folks in that community, we make sure that we increase the number of languages and make sure that those languages are clear.And so it’s not like we are gearing up because Mr. Elder says something or someone else says something. We are aware that the question of fraud or questions of transparency are constant. And, as I travel to different registrars’ offices, I see them responding to different issues, like making sure that there’s space that people can observe the opening of ballots.When I was in one area, they had basically created pathways for folks to be able to do that. So those are the kinds of things that we respond to all the time to make sure that those who want to build issues of transparency and fairness have an opportunity to do so. More

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      Why was Newsom’s French Laundry moment such a big deal? Our California restaurant critic explains.

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      This is what I keep thinking about: If Gov. Gavin Newsom had been spotted on the patio of a tiny neighborhood bistro just after urging California residents to stay home last November, we might not be blogging about a recall today.Instead, Mr. Newsom was seen at The French Laundry, attending the birthday dinner of Sacramento lobbyist Jason Kinney. The images of him hobnobbing with guests, indoors, without a mask on, at one of the country’s most expensive restaurants, were immediately and powerfully symbolic.The chef Thomas Keller took over the Yountville restaurant in the mid-90s and defined that era’s American fine-dining sensibility, equal parts playful and extravagant. Reservations were (and continue to be) impossible. Dishes such as the silky tuna tartare, held in a tiny, crisp cone, were (and continue to be) widely replicated, though most restaurants simply can’t replicate the atmosphere — the lush gardens, the perfume of fresh black truffles, the perfectly pressed uniforms.As a line cook in my 20s, I studied the recipes and photographs in The French Laundry cookbook, hoping its knowledge would transfer to me, reading and rereading it so many times that the pages became soft and worn at the edges. But not long before Governor Newsom attended that private party, fueling support for the recall, I wrote about how a meal there felt a bit like sneaking onto an opulent spaceship, orbiting a burning planet. I was uncomfortable with its excess.The restaurant’s luxurious ingredients, meticulous techniques and impeccable, formal service appeared as a kind of culinary anachronism. The 10-course tasting menu cost about $350 per person, and, during the pandemic, the restaurant started private indoor dining at $850 per person.It’s no surprise the restaurant has become such an essential part of the recall narrative. Dinner at The French Laundry isn’t so much dinner anymore as it is a status symbol, like macaroni and cheese served in a giant golden egg. More

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      What Time Do Polls Open and Close in California? Full Guide to Recall Election

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      Early returns suggest that California’s huge Democratic base is rallying for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who was elected in 2018 in a landslide. There are more than 40 competitors on the ballot.Follow our live updates on the California Recall Election.California voters will decide whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday, concluding an idiosyncratic election that has been held in the middle of a pandemic and closely watched as one of the first big indicators of the country’s political direction since President Biden took office.Democrats feel increasingly confident, predicting that Mr. Newsom will prevail and avert what would be a disaster for the party in California, the nation’s most-populous state. If Mr. Newsom is recalled, his likely replacement would be Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host who has made a career bashing liberal causes.But the fact that the Democratic governor of a state Mr. Biden won by nearly 30 percentage points is being forced to fight to hold on to his post has highlighted the vulnerabilities of leaders who seemed well positioned before the coronavirus pandemic.Democrats are trying to energize voters without former President Donald J. Trump on the ballot, and a loss — or even a narrow victory — would raise questions about the political clout of Mr. Biden, who campaigned with Mr. Newsom on Monday night.The leading Republicans vying to replace Mr. Newsom have embraced Mr. Trump and his baseless claims of a stolen election, an early signal of the party’s unwillingness or inability to distance itself from the former president.Even if the peculiar nature of California’s recall elections does not offer a perfect barometer of the national mood, much is at stake, including the leadership of the world’s fifth-largest economy. Political insiders in both parties note that Mr. Newsom’s fate could have far-reaching national consequences, given the governor’s power to appoint a new senator should a vacancy arise.Gov. Gavin Newsom at a “Vote No” campaign rally in Sun Valley, Calif., on Sunday.Alex Welsh for The New York TimesVoters are being asked two questions: Should Mr. Newsom be recalled? And if that happens, who should replace him? Forty-six candidates, about half of them Republican, are on the ballot, along with seven certified write-in candidates.The winner will serve out the remainder of Mr. Newsom’s term, which ends in January 2023. Regardless of the outcome, there will be another election in a little over a year.When will the polls close? Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time. Depending on the number of early ballots and the amount of in-person voting on Tuesday, the math could be clear within a few hours of when the polls close, election experts say. But if the race is tighter than expected, weeks could pass while the counting drags on.Follow our live updates and here’s what we’re watching as the results are released.Will the governor survive the recall?Early returns suggest that California’s huge Democratic base is rallying for Mr. Newsom, who was elected in 2018 in a landslide. The governor’s campaign has framed the recall as a power grab by Trump Republicans.If Mr. Newsom is recalled, it will have been because a critical mass of independent voters and Democrats voted against him, which in California would suggest a significant — and improbable — shift to the right.The more likely question is whether the governor wins by a wide or a narrow margin. For a time, polls seemed to indicate that likely voters were unenthusiastic about Mr. Newsom, which triggered a torrent of support from major donors and appearances by national Democratic figures, including Mr. Biden.A decisive win by Mr. Newsom, as some recent polls predict, would strengthen him heading into a campaign for a second term in 2022 and perhaps even position him for national office. But if Mr. Newsom prevails by only a couple of percentage points, he could face a primary challenge next year.How many Republicans will cast ballots?Republicans represent only a quarter of California’s registered voters. Since the 1990s, when the party’s anti-immigrant stances alienated Latinos, their numbers have been in decline. Proponents have presented the recall as a way to check the power of Democrats, who control all statewide offices and the Legislature. Republicans also say the battle has animated their party’s base.But Republican support and money for the recall has failed to approach Mr. Newsom’s large operation and war chest. And Mr. Elder’s candidacy appears to be further branding the G.O.P. as far-right by California standards. Support for moderates like Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego, is in the single digits, polls indicate.Supporters of Larry Elder gather during a campaign stop at Monterey Park City Hall on Monday. Alex Welsh for The New York TimesCritics of the G.O.P. under Mr. Trump say a failure to remove Mr. Newsom could further diminish Republican influence in California and accentuate the nation’s polarization.How will Latinos vote?Latinos are the largest ethnic group in California, making up roughly 30 percent of registered voters — a largely Democratic constituency that has shaped the state’s governance for decades.But to the consternation of Mr. Newsom’s party and the great interest of the recall backers, Latinos have been slow to weigh in on his ouster, thanks to a combination of distraction — many voters are more focused on navigating the pandemic — and ambivalence, both about Mr. Newsom specifically and the Democratic Party as a whole.Critics have warned that California Democrats have unwisely assumed that the Latino electorate would be animated by memories of Republican anti-immigrant policies, rather than trying to woo Latinos with their vision for the future.That has stirred speculation over whether the fast-growing Latino vote, in California and elsewhere, may be up for grabs by candidates willing to put in the work to engage those voters. After Republicans peeled away significant amounts of Latino support across the country during the 2020 election, a poor showing by Latino voters in the recall could spark a new round of Democratic soul-searching.How influential will mail-in ballots be?Every registered, active voter in California was sent a ballot in an extension of pandemic voting rules. Initiated in 2020 to keep voters and poll workers safe, the system helped boost turnout to more than 70 percent in the presidential election. This month, lawmakers voted to make the system permanent.California election officials say voting ran smoothly in 2020. But Republicans have contended that mailed-in ballots invite cheating, echoing Mr. Trump’s baseless claim that Democrats had used them to steal the presidential election.Last week, in an appearance on Newsmax, the former president claimed without evidence that the recall election was “probably rigged.”Conservative groups seeking evidence of voter fraud have been asking Californians to alert them to recall ballots that arrive in the mail addressed to deceased people or to voters not residing at their address.The warnings about voting by mail appear to have had an effect: Republicans have proven themselves reluctant to embrace the practice — a trend that worries some in the party as more states adopt mail-in balloting. Still, the night before the election, almost 40 percent of all registered voters had already cast their ballots, a hefty share that suggests the ease of voting early and by mail will enhance turnout in what is an unusually timed special election.Voters turned in ballots outside the Alameda County Courthouse in Oakland on Monday.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesThat bodes well for Mr. Newsom, who is relying on the state’s enormous base of Democratic voters: The greater the overall turnout, his campaign says, the better his chances.Still, analysts are watching to see whether significant numbers of Republican voters vote in person on Tuesday, and whether younger and Latino voters will join them.What will the vote say about pandemic policies?Had Covid-19 not set the stage, Mr. Newsom arguably would not be fighting for his job now. But lately, he has progress to report. Cases have declined this month in California, where wearing face masks indoors has become a fact of life in many places, and some 80 percent of eligible people have gotten at least one vaccine dose.In recent weeks, Mr. Newsom has trumpeted California’s approach, noting that mask and vaccination requirements have lowered new cases to half of the rates reported in Republican-run states.Californians have said no issue matters more to them than conquering the coronavirus. Broad support for Mr. Newsom, beyond Democratic voters, could signal to policymakers elsewhere — including in some of the dozens of other states with governors’ races next year — that strong health policies can be good politics.Other Democratic candidates on the ballot this fall have also leaned into policies like mask and vaccine mandates while raising alarms that their Republican opponents would undo those measures. Mr. Biden has followed suit, offering stricter policies around mandates and tougher talk aimed at Republican governors.How will Trump affect the race?For four years, Democrats enjoyed enormous gains thanks to Mr. Trump. The former president energized party activists, helped their candidates raise mountains of campaign cash and drove their voters to the polls in record numbers.Mr. Newsom has tried to sustain that source of inspiration, offering frequent warnings about the continuation of “Trumpism” in American political life. His recall election offers the first major test of whether the specter of the former president still has the power to mobilize liberal voters while keeping moderates voting Democratic.On the Republican side, the leading candidates have embraced Mr. Trump’s political playbook, offering baseless allegations of election fraud and “rigged” votes. Mr. Elder has refused to say if he will accept the results of the election.Not all Republicans agree with this playbook. Some worry it could cause some Republicans to stay home because they believe their votes will not count, and low turnout could lend credence to that argument. More

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      Revocatoria en California: estas son las claves

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      Los primeros informes sugieren que la gran base demócrata de California apoya al gobernador Newsom, que arrasó en 2018, cuando fue electo. En la boleta hay más de 40 contendientes para sustituirlo.Los votantes de California decidirán el martes si destituyen al gobernador Gavin Newsom, lo que pone fin a una elección peculiar que ha transcurrido en medio de una pandemia y ha sido observada con atención como uno de los primeros grandes indicadores de la dirección política que tomará el país después de que el presidente Joe Biden asumió el mando.Los demócratas se sienten cada vez más confiados y anticipan que Newsom permanecerá en el cargo y evitarán lo que sería un desastre para el partido en California, el estado más poblado del país. Si Newsom es revocado, su reemplazo más probable sería Larry Elder, un presentador de la radio conservadora que ha hecho una carrera atacando las causas liberales.Pero el hecho de que el gobernador demócrata de un estado que Biden ganó por casi 30 puntos porcentuales se vea obligado a luchar para conservar su puesto ha puesto de manifiesto las vulnerabilidades de los líderes que parecían bien posicionados antes de la pandemia de coronavirus.Los demócratas intentan motivar a los votantes sin la presencia del expresidente Donald Trump en la papeleta y una derrota –e incluso una victoria muy ajustada– crearía dudas sobre la influencia política de Biden, que hizo campaña a favor de Newsom la noche del lunes.Los principales republicanos que compiten por reemplazar a Newsom se han alineado con Trump y sus afirmaciones infundadas de que la elección de 2020 estuvo amañada, una señal temprana de la falta de voluntad o incapacidad del partido para distanciarse del expresidente.Incluso si la naturaleza peculiar de las elecciones revocatorias de California no ofrece un barómetro perfecto del estado de ánimo nacional, hay mucho en juego, incluido el liderazgo de la quinta economía más grande del mundo. Los expertos políticos de ambos partidos señalan que el destino de Newsom podría tener consecuencias nacionales de gran alcance, dado el poder del gobernador para nombrar un nuevo senador en caso de que surja una vacante.El gobernador Gavin Newsom en un mitin de la campaña “Vota No” en Sun Valley, California, el domingoAlex Welsh para The New York TimesA los votantes se les ha pedido responder dos preguntas: ¿Newsom debe ser revocado? Y, si eso sucede, ¿quién debe reemplazarlo? En la boleta aparecen 46 candidatos, alrededor de la mitad de ellos son republicanos y también participan siete candidatos certificados que pueden añadirse a mano.El ganador gobernará por el resto del mandato de Newsom, que concluye en enero de 2023. Sin importar el resultado, habrá otra elección en poco más de un año.Las urnas cerrarán a las 8 p.m. hora del Pacífico. Sigue nuestra página de resultados y cobertura de la elección y sus implicaciones en nytimes.com.Esto es lo que estaremos monitoreando mientras llegan los resultados:¿El gobernador podrá sobrevivir a la revocatoria?Los primeros resultados sugieren que la gran base demócrata de California apoya a Newsom, quien fue electo en 2018 con una gran ventaja. La campaña del gobernador ha presentado la campaña revocatoria como un intento de los republicanos de Trump por hacerse con el poder.Si Newsom es revocado, será porque una gran cantidad de electores independientes y demócratas votaron en su contra, lo cual en California sería señal de un giro significativo e improbable a la derecha.La duda es si el gobernador gana con margen amplio o estrecho. Durante un tiempo, las encuestas parecían indicar que los probables votantes no se mostraban muy entusiasmados respecto a Newsom, lo que causó un torrente de apoyo por parte de grandes donantes así como la aparición de personajes demócratas de importancia nacional, entre ellos Biden.Una victoria decisiva de Newsom, como predicen algunas encuestas recientes, lo fortalecería de cara a una campaña para un segundo mandato en 2022 y quizás incluso lo posicionaría para ocupar un cargo a nivel nacional. Pero si Newsom se queda en la gobernatura por solo un par de puntos porcentuales, podría enfrentar un desafío primario el próximo año.¿Cuántos republicanos van a votar?Los republicanos representan solo una cuarta parte de los votantes registrados de California. Desde la década de 1990, cuando las posturas antiinmigrantes del partido alejaron a los latinos, su número ha disminuido. Los proponentes de la revocatoria la han presentado como una forma de fiscalizar el poder de los demócratas, que controlan todas las oficinas estatales y la Legislatura. Los republicanos también dicen que la batalla ha animado la base de su partido.Pero el apoyo republicano y el dinero para la revocatoria no se acercan al gran fondo de financiación y a la operación con que cuenta Newsom. Y la candidatura de Elder parece que ha presentado al Partido Republicano como de extrema derecha, para estándares de California. El apoyo para los moderados como Kevin Faulconer, exalcalde de San Diego, se registra en cifras inferiores al 10 por ciento, según los sondeos.Partidarios de Larry Elder se reúnen durante una parada de campaña en el Ayuntamiento de Monterey Park el lunesAlex Welsh para The New York TimesLos críticos del Partido Republicano durante el mandato de Trump dicen que si no logran revocar a Newsom esto podría disminuir aún más la influencia republicana en California y acentuar la polarización del país.¿Cómo votarán los latinos?Los latinos son el grupo étnico más numeroso de California, comprenden alrededor del 30 por ciento de los votantes registrados y son un gran grupo demócrata que ha dado forma a la gobernanza del estado durante décadas.No obstante, y para consternación del partido de Newsom y gran interés de los partidarios de la revocatoria, los latinos no han acudido rápidamente a participar, en parte debido a la distracción —muchos votantes están más ocupados sorteando la pandemia— y a la ambivalencia, tanto respecto a Newsom en particular como al Partido Demócrata en general.Los críticos han advertido que los demócratas de California han asumido, equivocadamente, que el electorado latino se sentiría motivado por el recuerdo de las políticas antiinmigrantes republicanas, en lugar de apostar por atraer a los latinos con una visión para el futuro.Esto ha avivado la especulación sobre la posibilidad de que en California y el resto del país el voto latino, de rápido crecimiento, esté disponible para los candidatos dispuestos a esforzarse por conectar con estos electores. Luego de que los republicanos se llevaron una parte significativa del apoyo latino en todo el país durante la elección de 2020, la ausencia de los latinos en las urnas podría generar un nuevo episodio de introspección demócrata.¿Cuán influyentes serán las boletas de votos por correo?A cada votante registrado y activo en California se le envió una boleta como parte de una extensión de las reglas de votación pandémica. El sistema, iniciado en 2020 para mantener seguros a los votantes y los trabajadores electorales, ayudó a aumentar la participación a más del 70 por ciento en las elecciones presidenciales. Este mes, los legisladores votaron para que el sistema sea permanente.Los funcionarios electorales de California dijeron que la votación transcurrió sin problemas en 2020. Pero los republicanos han dicho que las papeletas enviadas por correo invitan a la trampa, lo cual es similar al reclamo, sin fundamento, que hizo Trump al decir que los demócratas se habían valido de estas boletas para robar la elección presidencial.La semana pasada, en una participación en Newsmax, el expresidente aseguró, sin proveer evidencia, que la elección revocatoria estaba “probablemente amañada”.Los grupos conservadores que buscan evidencias de fraude electoral han estado pidiendo a los californianos que reporten si reciben por correo papeletas para personas fallecidas o votantes que no residen en su dirección.Las advertencias sobre el voto por correo parecen haber surtido efecto: los republicanos se muestran reacios a aceptar la práctica, una tendencia que preocupa a algunos en el partido dado que más estados están adoptando el sufragio enviado por correo. Aun así, la noche antes de la elección, casi 40 por ciento de todos los votantes registrados habían emitido su voto, una proporción considerable que sugiere que la comodidad de votar anticipadamente y por correo tendrá un efecto positivo en la participación durante una elección en una temporada inusual.Los votantes entregaron las boletas a las puertas del juzgado del condado de Alameda, en Oakland, el lunes.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesEso es un buen augurio para Newsom, que depende de la enorme base de votantes demócratas del estado: cuanto mayor sea la participación general, dice su campaña, mejores serán sus posibilidades.Sin embargo, los analistas están atentos ante la posibilidad de que haya grandes cantidades de votantes republicanos que acudan a votar en persona el martes y se preguntan si los votantes latinos los acompañarán.¿Qué relación tiene el voto con la pandemia?De no ser por el panorama creado por la COVID-19, es probable que Newsom no estaría pelando ahora por mantener su cargo. Pero últimamente ha hecho algunos progresos. Los casos han bajado este mes en California, el uso de mascarillas en interiores es una realidad en muchas zonas del estado y alrededor del 80 por ciento de las personas elegibles se han vacunado con al menos una dosis.En las últimas semanas, Newsom ha alardeado del enfoque de California, señalando que los requisitos de uso de cubrebocas y vacunación han reducido los nuevos casos a la mitad de las tasas reportadas en los estados gobernados por republicanos.Los californianos indican que no hay tema que les importe más que controlar al coronavirus. El amplio apoyo a favor de Newsom, más allá de los votantes demócratas, podría indicarle a otros funcionarios —incluso en otros estados, que tienen elecciones a la gubernatura el año entrante— que las políticas de salud firmes pueden tener un buen impacto político.Otros candidatos demócratas en la boleta este otoño también han apoyado medidas como el uso de mascarilla obligatorio y los requisitos de vacunación al tiempo que llaman la atención sobre la posibilidad de que sus oponentes republicanos pudieran dar marcha atrás a esas medidas. Biden también ha presentado políticas más estrictas y un discurso más duro dirigido hacia los gobernadores republicanos.¿Qué papel tiene Trump en la contienda?Durante cuatro años, los demócratas disfrutaron de enormes ganancias gracias a Trump. El expresidente motivó a los activistas del partido a trabajar para contrarrestarlo, ayudó a sus candidatos a recaudar montañas de dinero en efectivo para la campaña y llevó a sus votantes a las urnas en cifras récord.Newsom ha intentado sostener esa fuente de inspiración y a menudo advierte que el “trumpismo” persiste en la vida política estadounidense. Su elección revocatoria es la primera gran prueba para saber si el espectro del expresidente sigue teniendo poder para movilizar a los votantes liberales al tiempo que anima a los moderados a seguir votando por demócratas.Del lado republicano, los principales candidatos se han entregado al manual de estrategia política de Trump, al hacer afirmaciones, infundadas, de fraude de elección y votos “amañados”. Elder se ha rehusado a indicar si piensa aceptar los resultados de la elección.No todos los republicanos están de acuerdo con esta estrategia. A algunos les preocupa que pueda ocasionar que algunos republicanos se queden en casa porque creen que sus votos no serán respetados, y la baja participación podría dar crédito a ese argumento.Shawn Hubler es corresponsal en California con sede en Sacramento. Antes de unirse al Times en 2020, pasó casi dos décadas cubriendo el estado para Los Angeles Times como reportera itinerante, columnista y escritora de revista. Compartió tres premios Pulitzer con el equipo Metro del periódico. @ShawnHublerLisa Lerer es una corresponsal de política nacional que cubre campañas electorales, votaciones y poder político. @llerer More

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      When Will We Know the California Recall Election Results?

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      Californians have been voting early for weeks in the election to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.But it is unclear how long it will take to get a definitive answer on whether he will keep his job.Depending on the number of early ballots and the amount of in-person voting on Tuesday, the math could be clear within a few hours of when the polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time, election experts say. But if the race is tighter than expected, weeks could pass while the counting drags on.Recall attempts are a fact of political life for governors of California. But they do not usually make it onto the ballot, and Californians have gone to the polls only one other time to determine whether the state’s top officeholder should be ousted. That was in 2003, when Gov. Gray Davis was recalled and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger. Since then, the state’s voting rules and electorate have changed substantially.Because of the safety concerns arising from the coronavirus pandemic, ballots were mailed early to all of the state’s 22 million or so registered and active voters in the 2020 election. Voters can return their completed ballots by mail, deposit them in secure drop boxes, vote early in person or vote at a polling place on Tuesday.Nearly 40 percent of registered voters have already cast ballots, but many Republicans have indicated that they plan to vote in person, citing — without evidence — a concern that election officials in the Democrat-dominated state will tamper with their ballots. Studies after the 2020 election found that the system had worked smoothly, with no systemic voter fraud.Early Democratic ballots have outnumbered Republican ones by two to one, with overwhelming majorities of voters in both parties telling pollsters they plan to vote along party lines. Mr. Newsom is a Democrat, as is about 46 percent of the electorate.But that margin is expected to tighten as Republican voters — who represent fewer than a quarter of registered voters — head to the polls.Vote counts are notoriously slow in California because the state is so massive. The law for this election allows county officials to open and process early ballots as they come in, but those results cannot be shared with the public until the polls close, said Jenna Dresner, a spokeswoman for the California secretary of state’s office.California has 58 counties, and each processes its ballots differently. Results often land later in larger counties, such as Los Angeles County. Officials have 30 days to complete their official canvass and must give vote-by-mail ballots postmarked on Election Day a week to arrive. The certified count is not expected until Oct. 22.Significant partial counts should be available within a couple of hours after polls close in some key areas, such as the Bay Area and Orange County. And the electoral math in California should offer some strong clues about the outcome, said Paul Mitchell, a vice president of Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of election data.Because so many voters are Democrats, he said, the higher the turnout, the better Mr. Newsom’s chances are of beating the recall. If the overall turnout hits 60 percent, he said, the proposed ouster of Mr. Newsom is almost mathematically impossible. More

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      How large is Newsom's lead in the California recall election polls?

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      After the polls overestimated Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020, it is reasonable to wonder whether Gov. Gavin Newsom’s lead in the California recall election might prove as illusory as Hillary Clinton’s lead in Wisconsin or Joe Biden’s in Florida.It’s not impossible. But Mr. Newsom’s lead now dwarfs the typical polling error and is large enough to withstand nearly every statewide polling miss in recent memory.Opposition to recalling Mr. Newsom leads by 17 points, 58 to 41 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Polls in 2020 overestimated the Democrats by an average of about five percentage points.There was no state in either the 2016 or 2020 presidential elections where the final polls missed by 17 percentage points. Perhaps the worst recent polling miss — Senator Susan Collins’s comfortable nine-point victory after trailing in the polls by three points — is in the ballpark, but would still fall five points short of erasing Mr. Newsom’s lead.Many of the most embarrassing and high-profile misses for pollsters, such as the seven-point polling errors in Wisconsin in 2016 and 2020, might still leave Mr. Newsom with a double-digit victory.It is hard to find many precedents for such a large polling error. According to Harry Enten, a writer at CNN, there are only four cases in the last 20 years where the polling average in a race for governor was off by at least 15 percentage points.Mr. Newsom’s opponents can hope that the idiosyncrasies of a recall election might make it more challenging for pollsters than a typical general election. Special and primary elections often have larger polling errors.But the polls were fairly accurate in the last California gubernatorial recall and dead-on in the high-profile effort to recall former Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin in 2012. The high turnout in early voting in California so far tends to reduce the risk that an unusual turnout would contribute to a particularly large polling error.And California is not a state where the polls have missed badly in recent election cycles. The largest polling errors have been in Wisconsin, Maine and other states with large numbers of white working-class voters. That’s not California. Just 22 percent of California voters in 2020 were whites without a four-year college degree, the second lowest of any state, according to census data.Perhaps as a result, statewide polling in California has generally been fairly accurate.Joe Biden led the final California polls by 29.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.He won by 29.2 points. More

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      How Will Gavin Newsom Survive the California Recall?

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      LOS ANGELES — In the waning days of the campaign to save his job, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California assessed the stakes as nothing short of saving democracy. The possibility of being recalled from office had woken him to the fragile state of the political system, which he compared to … a Fabergé egg.“This is like a Fabergé egg, so to speak, in terms of democracy,” he said. “It’s not a football. You can’t throw it around. It’s delicate. Democracy is delicate. I didn’t realize how delicate it was, and now I’m starting to appreciate how delicate it is and how important this race is, not just for me.”That belated realization has animated the final weeks of this odd campaign, and when the votes are counted after the polls close on Tuesday, they appear very likely to break in the governor’s favor. Yet the election seems destined to be neither a morality play about democracy nor an endorsement of Mr. Newsom and his record. It is more prosaic than that: a lopsided battle between a reasonably popular Democratic incumbent who often seems more self-absorbed than self-aware and a conservative radio talk show host who is arguably to the right of Donald Trump, in a state Mr. Trump lost by 29 percentage points.What the recall does tell us is that California — one of the bluest states in the country — is not so different from other places in being subject to the gravitational tug of partisan forces. Even if Mr. Newsom prevails by a wide margin, the recall has underscored Californians’ continuing ambivalence about his leadership. A victory will be less a vote of confidence than a resounding rejection of the right-wing Republican agenda, a message Democrats hope will resonate beyond California.This should not even be close — and perhaps, despite earlier alarmist polling that suggested a tight race, it never was. On the up-or-down question of whether to recall Mr. Newsom, support for his removal has been consistently about 40 percent, slightly more than the share of the vote that Mr. Trump received in 2020. Mr. Newsom, elected by a large margin in 2018, has just presided over a staggering $76 billion budget surplus that enabled the state to spend generously on myriad programs and people — from elaborate vaccine lotteries to $600 stimulus checks.California Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one, and no Republican has won statewide in 15 years. To defeat the recall, Mr. Newsom needs only to make sure enough Democrats vote. Polls and the large turnout of Democrats in early voting suggest he will do that.The political calculus has been complicated by several factors: the topsy-turvy nature of the Covid pandemic and its hardships, without which the recall would not have made the ballot; the extreme political polarization that has gripped the country; and California’s recall law, which makes it possible for a replacement to win with minimal support should the recall pass. But Democrats’ fears that lackluster turnout could create a doomsday scenario have also reflected lukewarm enthusiasm about Mr. Newsom and underlying dissatisfaction with his leadership on severe challenges like lack of affordable housing and devastating wildfires.Some of the dissonance is personal. He has long moved in an elite, moneyed world of Michelin-starred restaurants and Fabergé collectors. He empathized about sharing the parental pain of Zoom school while his kids attended private schools that were already offering in-person instruction. On the day he took office, he moved with fanfare into the state-owned Governor’s Mansion in downtown Sacramento — without disclosing he had already bought a $3.7 million suburban estate that would be the family home.Some of the tepid support is professional. His extensive use of executive orders and powers contributed to friction and distrust with some Democratic legislative leaders. He has a reputation dating back to his tenure as mayor of San Francisco of being enamored of bright, shiny objects, making headline-grabbing announcements that lack follow-through. Progressives are dissatisfied with his action on issues like fracking and single-payer health care; moderates view him as too liberal. In some sense, he lacks a committed base.But the specter of a Trump Republican governor has united Democrats. Mr. Newsom has capitalized on his ability to accept donations of unlimited amounts — another quirk of the recall law — amassing more than $70 million to wage a scare campaign against the talk-show host Larry Elder, the front-runner to become governor if the recall passes. Mr. Elder’s extreme positions on Covid-19 (he wants to repeal vaccine and mask mandates), climate change (he’s “not sure” state wildfires are due to climate change), abortion (he is “pro-life, 100 percent”) and the minimum wage (“the ideal minimum wage is $0.00”) have enabled Mr. Newsom to set the contest in a national frame, warning that California would become Texas and Florida rolled into one. It’s not clear whether the tens of millions of dollars spent on the Vote No campaign has won Mr. Newsom any converts. But that isn’t the goal. The fear is meant to galvanize a large Democratic turnout.Mr. Newsom largely has not campaigned on his record, with the exception of his management of the pandemic, which has earned him strong approval ratings at a time of growing support for mandates on vaccinations and masks.At the same time, fewer than half of those surveyed recently said California was headed in the right direction, and about half thought the state was in a recession. When rated on pressing problems like housing, homelessness and economic issues — which have temporarily taken a back seat to Covid-19 concerns — Mr. Newsom has earned relatively low marks.In recent weeks, Mr. Newsom stayed on message, warning the recall is a matter of life and death. He made little mention of accomplishments beyond boasting in some interviews about ambitious programs that have for the most part not yet gone into effect (like a promise of universal prekindergarten for 4-year-olds and an experiment in providing health care to people living on the street).He would have liked to campaign on his record, Mr. Newsom recently told the Los Angeles Times editorial board. But that would have to wait until his presumed re-election campaign next year.Republicans have probably squandered their best opportunity to regain power. With no obvious strong contenders on the horizon, it seems likely that 2022 will bring a sequel to what is looking like the anticlimactic recall of 2021.Miriam Pawel (@miriampawel) is the author of “The Browns of California: The Family Dynasty That Transformed a State and Shaped a Nation.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More