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      Your Wednesday Briefing: China’s Dual Crises

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      Last year, China’s economy had one of its worst performances in decades. Its population is also shrinking.Together with Japan and South Korea, China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesChina’s twin crisesAt the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, China sought to reassure the world that its economy was back on track. A delegation told world leaders that business could return to normal now that the country has relaxed its “zero Covid” policy.But China’s projected resilience does not align with two major revelations about its long-term health and stability.Yesterday, China revealed that its economy had just had one of its worst performances since 1976, the year Mao Zedong died. Its economy grew by just 3 percent, far short of its 5.5 percent target.Perhaps more consequential, China also revealed that its population had shrunk last year for the first time since the Great Leap Forward, Mao’s failed economic experiment.In the population data, experts see major implications for China, its economy and the world. Births in China have fallen for years, and officials have fought to reverse the trend. They have loosened the one-child policy and offered incentives to encourage families to have children. Those policies did not work. Now, some experts think the decline may be irreversible.A shrinking Chinese population means that the country will face labor shortages in the absence of enough people of working age to fuel its growth. By 2035, 400 million people in China are expected to be over 60, nearly a third of its population. That will have major implications for the global economy; the country has been the engine of world growth for decades.Context: The problem is not limited to China. Many developed countries are aging, and toward the middle of this century, deaths will start to exceed births worldwide. The shift is already starting to transform societies. In East Asia, people are working well into their 70s, and in France, an effort to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 is expected to expose older workers to hiring discrimination.Opinion: China’s population decline creates two major economic challenges, writes Paul Krugman. The state pension system will struggle to handle the unbalanced ratio of older adults to the working population. And the decline may harm China’s overall productivity.Olena Zelenska pressed leaders at Davos to support Ukraine.Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Ukraine war dominates at DavosThe war in Ukraine is taking center stage at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as Ukraine pushes for more aid and advanced weapons from the West.Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s first lady, is there in person. Yesterday, she called on world leaders and others at the forum to use their influence to help Ukraine. She also outlined the 10-point peace plan that her husband, President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced last fall, which includes Russia’s complete withdrawal.Pressure is now growing on Germany to export its main battle tank to Ukraine, or allow other countries to do so. Poland and Finland are waiting for Germany’s approval to send the German tanks, which could help Ukraine better defend itself against Russian aerial attacks and take the initiative along the front line in the east.The State of the WarDnipro: A Russian strike on an apartment complex in the central Ukrainian city was one of the deadliest for civilians away from the front line since the war began. The attack prompted renewed calls for Moscow to be charged with war crimes.Western Military Aid: Britain indicated that it would give battle tanks to Ukrainian forces to help prepare them for anticipated Russian assaults this spring, adding to the growing list of powerful Western weapons being sent Ukraine’s way that were once seen as too provocative.Soledar: The Russian military and the Wagner Group, a private mercenary group, contradicted each other publicly about who should get credit for capturing the eastern town. Ukraine’s military, meanwhile, has rejected Russia’s claim of victory, saying its troops are still fighting there.What’s next: The dispute over German-made tanks should be resolved by the end of the week. Vocal U.S. support could help sway Germany. Yesterday, a senior NATO official said that Britain’s recent announcement that it would send 14 tanks to Ukraine was making Germany’s reluctance untenable.Context: Ukraine and its allies are growing more worried that there is only a short window to prepare for a possible Russian offensive in the spring.Elsewhere: The Australian Open banned Belarusian and Russian flags yesterday. It has allowed tennis players from those countries to compete, but not as representatives of their country.Brayan Apaza, 15, is the youngest person who was killed in the protests.Federico Rios Escobar for The New York Times.A referendum on Peru’s democracyProtests in rural Peru that began more than a month ago over the ouster of the former president, Pedro Castillo, have grown in size and in the scope of demonstrators’ demands.The unrest is now far broader than anger over who is running the country. Instead, it represents a profound frustration with the country’s young democracy, which demonstrators say has deepened the country’s vast inequalities.At first, protesters mainly sought timely new elections or Castillo’s reinstatement. But now at least 50 people have died, and protesters are demanding a new constitution and even, as one sign put it, “to refound a new nation.”“This democracy is no longer a democracy,” they chant as they block streets.Background: Peru returned to democracy just two decades ago, after the authoritarian rule of Alberto Fujimori. The current system, based on a Fujimori-era Constitution, is rife with corruption, impunity and mismanagement.Context: The crisis reflects an erosion of trust in democracies across Latin America, fueled by states that “violate citizens’ rights, fail to provide security and quality public services and are captured by powerful interests,” according to The Journal of Democracy. Just 21 percent of Peruvians are satisfied with their democracy, according to one study. Only Haiti fares worse in Latin America.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificMursal Nabizada was one of a few female legislators who stayed in Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power. Wakil Kohsar/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA former Afghan lawmaker was fatally shot at her home in Kabul. No one has been arrested, and it was unclear whether it was a politically motivated murder or a family conflict.New Zealand is facing an egg shortage. One reason is a decade-old disagreement about how to farm poultry.Vietnam’s president resigned yesterday after he was found responsible for a series of corruption scandals, The Associated Press reports.Around the WorldArmed insurgents kidnapped 50 women in Burkina Faso, which has been battling a jihadist insurgency since 2015.Britain’s government blocked a new Scottish law that made it easier for people to legally change their gender.Experts think European inflation has probably peaked, after an unusually warm winter drove down gas prices.Science TimesSome 130,000 babies get infected with H.I.V. each year in sub-Saharan Africa.Malin Fezehai for The New York TimesEfforts to treat adults for H.I.V. have been a major success across sub-Saharan Africa. But many infections in children are undetected and untreated.Dolphins can shout underwater. But a new study suggests that underwater noise made by humans could make it harder for them to communicate and work together.The rate of big scientific breakthroughs may have fallen since 1945. Analysts say that today’s discoveries are more incremental.A Morning ReadPrincess Martha Louise of Norway stepped away from her royal duties last year to focus on her alternative medicine business.Lise AserudThe British aren’t the only ones with royal drama. Thailand, Norway, Denmark and Spain have zany monarchies, too.ARTS AND IDEAS“The Reading Party,” painted in 1735 by Jean-François de Troy, was sold for $3.6 million last month. Christie’sTough times for the old mastersThe art market, like pretty much everything else in our culture, has become all about the here and now. European paintings from before 1850 were once a bedrock of the market. But now, works by the old masters make up just 4 percent of sales at Sotheby’s and Christie’s.Instead, buyers increasingly want works by living artists. Last year, Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips offered works by a record 670 “NextGen” artists, who are under 45. A January report found that their art grossed more than $300 million. Experts say that younger collectors often regard art from the distant past as remote and irrelevant, and contemporary art reflects the fast-forward cultural preoccupations of our society. There may also be a financial incentive: Works by younger, Instagram-lauded artists are routinely “flipped” at auction for many multiples of their original gallery prices.Related: A new book, “The Status Revolution,” argues that class signifiers have flipped. The lowbrow has supplanted luxury as a sign of prestige.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Prop Stylist: Paige Hicks.Instant pistachio pudding mix is the secret to this moist Bundt cake.How to NegotiateThere is an art to asking for a raise.HealthIs it bad to drink coffee on an empty stomach?FashionHere’s how to choose the perfect work T-shirt.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Whole bunch (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Adrienne Carter, who has led our newsroom in Asia since 2019, will be the next Europe editor. Congratulations, Adrienne!“The Daily” is on China’s “zero Covid” pivot.We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Representative Jim Banks Announces Senate Bid in Indiana

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      The seat will be open as Senator Mike Braun runs for governor instead.Representative Jim Banks, a staunch conservative with the backing of a deep-pocketed political action committee, opened his bid for an Indiana Senate seat on Tuesday with an ad highlighting his deployment to Afghanistan and issuing a broadside against “radical socialist Democrats.”Mike Braun, who currently holds the seat and is one of the state’s two Republican senators, will run for governor next year, creating an opening that could lead to a crowded primary fight in the reliably Republican state. Mr. Banks, who recently led the House’s Republican Study Committee, a conservative caucus that is broader and less confrontational than the House’s Freedom Caucus, turned to the Senate after he lost his bid to be whip, the No. 3 Republican position in the G.O.P.’s new House majority.He enters the contest with the backing of the Club for Growth, a moneyed conservative political action committee that spent millions of dollars to get its preferred House and Senate candidates across the line in the November midterms. The group and its super PAC “are prepared to spend whatever it takes to help Banks secure the nomination and victory,” its president, David McIntosh, said Tuesday.The Club for Growth is already spending money against another possible candidate, the former Indiana governor Mitch Daniels, whom it considers too conciliatory. Mr. Banks signaled that he too would focus on Mr. Daniels, who was also president of Purdue University and a White House budget director under President George W. Bush. Mr. Daniels a decade ago called for a truce on cultural issues, a stance Mr. Banks appeared to call out in an interview with Politico, saying that issues like abortion and gender “matter more than at any point in my lifetime.”“I’ll never be calling for a truce on social issues or cultural issues,” he told Politico.Mr. Banks also has the endorsement of Representative Larry Bucshon, another Indiana Republican, and Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas.But Indiana’s current governor, Eric Holcomb, who is facing a term limit, is considering a run for the Senate, as is Representative Victoria Spartz, whose Ukrainian birth has elevated her voice in Congress.In his announcement, Mr. Banks called himself “a small-town kid from a working-class home” with deep roots in Indiana and a record fighting overseas and in Congress for “conservative Hoosier values.” He threw in a nod to former President Donald J. Trump, calling him “the strongest president in my lifetime.”Mr. Braun, a businessman who had little political experience when he ran against Senator Joe Donnelly, a Democrat, in 2018, beat him by six percentage points. His victory came two years after Representative Todd Young breezed past Evan Bayh, a Democrat and former senator who had come out of retirement to try a comeback. Those defeats signaled just how difficult a Democratic comeback in the state would be.In November, Mr. Young won re-election with nearly 59 percent of the vote. More

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      Así comenzó el ataque en Brasilia

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      Mientras el autobús se dirigía desde el corazón agrícola de Brasil a la capital, Andrea Barth sacó su teléfono para preguntar a sus compañeros de viaje, uno por uno, qué pensaban hacer cuando llegaran.“Derrocar a los ladrones”, respondió un hombre.“Sacar al ‘Nueve Dedos’“, dijo otro, en referencia al presidente de izquierda de Brasil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien hace décadas perdió parte de un dedo en un accidente de trabajo sucedido en una fábrica.Mientras los pasajeros describían sus planes de violencia, más de cien autobuses llenos de simpatizantes de Jair Bolsonaro, el expresidente de extrema derecha, también descendían en Brasilia, la capital.Video posted on social media shows dozens of supporters of Jair Bolsonaro arriving in Brasília by bus.Jakelyne Loiola, via TwitterUn día después, el 8 de enero, una turba pro-Bolsonaro desató un caos que conmocionó al país y que dio la vuelta al mundo. Los agitadores invadieron y saquearon el Congreso, el Supremo Tribunal Federal y el palacio de gobierno del país, con la intención, según muchos de ellos, de incitar a los líderes militares a derrocar a Lula, quien había asumido el cargo una semana antes.El ataque caótico tuvo un parecido inquietante con el asalto al Capitolio de Estados Unidos el 6 de enero de 2021: cientos de manifestantes de derecha, alegando que una elección estuvo amañada, entraron a los pasillos del poder.Ambos episodios impactaron a dos de las democracias más grandes del mundo, y casi dos años después del ataque de Estados Unidos, el asalto del domingo de hace un par de semanas mostró que el extremismo de extrema derecha, inspirado por líderes antidemocráticos e impulsado por teorías de la conspiración, sigue siendo una grave amenaza.Lula y las autoridades judiciales actuaron con rapidez para recuperar el control y detuvieron a más de 1150 alborotadores, desalojaron los campamentos donde se refugiaron, buscaron a sus financiadores y organizadores y, el viernes de la semana pasada, abrieron una investigación sobre cómo Bolsonaro pudo haberlos inspirado.The New York Times habló con las autoridades, servidores públicos, testigos y participantes en las protestas y revisó decenas de videos y cientos de publicaciones en las redes sociales para reconstruir lo sucedido. El resultado de la investigación muestra que una turba superó con rapidez y sin esfuerzo a la policía.También muestra que algunos agentes de la policía no solo no actuaron contra los alborotadores, sino que parecían simpatizar con ellos, ya que se dedicaron a tomar fotos mientras la turba destruía el Congreso. Un hombre que fue a ver qué estaba pasando dijo que la policía simplemente le indicó que se dirigiera a los disturbios.El desequilibrio entre los manifestantes y la policía sigue siendo uno de los puntos centrales de la investigación de las autoridades y las entrevistas con los agentes de seguridad han generado acusaciones de negligencia grave e incluso de complicidad activa en el caos. Tras los disturbios, las autoridades federales suspendieron al gobernador responsable de la protección de los edificios públicos y detuvieron a dos altos funcionarios de seguridad que trabajaban para él. More

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      This Is How Red States Silence Blue Cities. And Democracy.

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      NASHVILLE — January in Nashville ushers in two forces for chaos: erratic weather and irrational legislators. Both are massively disruptive. Neither is surprising anymore.In the age of climate change, Mark Twain’s old joke about New England — if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes — is true all over the country. But even careening between thunderstorms and snow, sometimes in a single day, erratic weather is easier to cope with than the G.O.P. Unlike human beings, weather isn’t supposed to be rational.Neither, it seems, are Republicans, at least not anymore, and a blue city that serves as the capital of a red state had better brace itself when the legislature arrives in town. Nothing good ever comes when the Tennessee General Assembly reconvenes, but any Nashvillian paying attention understood that this time the usual assaults would be unusually bad.Last year, when Nashville’s Metro Council voted not to support the state’s bid for the city to host the 2024 Republican National Convention, retaliation was widely understood to be inevitable, according to Nashville’s NPR affiliate, WPLN News.Now we know what shape retaliation will take: Last week, on the first day of the new legislative session, Republicans in both the Tennessee House and Senate introduced legislation that would cut our Metro Council in half. (The bills ostensibly apply to all city governments with a legislative body larger than 20 members, but that’s just Nashville.) If passed, the law would overturn not only a 60-year history but also the will of the Nashville people, who voted in 2015 to keep its 40-member council intact.The new bills set a “dangerous precedent,” according to the Democratic House caucus chair, John Ray Clemmons. “The G.O.P. supermajority’s continued efforts to overstep into local affairs and usurp the decision-making authority of local officials for the purpose of centralizing more and more power at the state level is concerning,” Mr. Clemmons told The Tennessean. “Ultimately, Nashville families know what’s best for Nashville.”Metro Council is larger than the legislative branch of every American city except Chicago and New York, cities that dwarf Nashville. There are good arguments for reducing its size, which is the result of compromises made in 1962 when residents of Davidson County voted to form a metropolitan government, but that’s a different question. What matters here is that the state of Tennessee is once again interfering in the self-governance of the blue city that drives the economic engine of the entire red state. And state lawmakers are doing it for absolutely no reason but spite.There is, of course, a long history of legislative pre-emption in Tennessee. The tactic is also used by Democratic-controlled legislatures, but it is especially egregious in Southern states governed by Republican supermajorities. Just last week, another state lawmaker here introduced a bill that would ban local governments from helping residents fund out-of-state abortions — a policy that members of Nashville’s council have already proposed.It’s no surprise that the party of voter suppression and disenfranchisement is also the party of undermining local governance. But it’s worse this year, or at least it feels worse this year, because this year Nashville voters can’t count on representation at the national level either.The South used to be the land of the Yellow Dog Democrat — someone who would vote a straight Democratic ticket even if the Democratic candidate were a yellow dog — but those days are long gone. There are still legions of Democrats down here, as well as a growing number of voters who are left of the mainstream Democratic Party, but they are clustered in college towns and growing cities like Nashville, where they live and work shoulder to shoulder with old-school conservatives and rabid Donald Trump supporters alike. Joe Biden won Nashville with almost 65 percent of the vote.But thanks to a brutally gerrymandered election map, we didn’t send a moderate Democrat, one who could reasonably represent the interests of both Nashville liberals and Nashville conservatives, to Washington this year. Instead, the newly mutilated Nashville is represented by three of the most militant right-wingers the state has ever elected.This particular injustice likely seems irrelevant to anybody who doesn’t live here. Occurring as it does among so many other political injustices in a nation moving rapidly toward minority rule, even the utter disenfranchisement of an entire American city is hard to get particularly worked up about.But you ought to be worked up about it. You ought to be protesting in the streets about it because what is happening in Tennessee, and in so many other states governed by Republican supermajorities, goes a long way toward explaining what is happening in the U.S. Congress.Andy Ogles, for example, is the newly elected congressman from Tennessee’s redrawn Fifth District, a seat held for two decades by Rep. Jim Cooper back when the seat still included all of Nashville. In Washington, Mr. Ogles immediately allied himself with the nihilist wing of the Republican Party, voting 11 times against Rep. Kevin McCarthy for the speakership. In Nashville, then, we have gone from being represented by a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of fiscally conservative Democrats to being represented by a founding member of what might well be called the Dead Dog Caucus. What else should we call legislators who have no interest in legislating?In dismembering Nashville to create three Republican voting districts, in other words, the Tennessee General Assembly managed only to nationalize its own brand of chaos. And maybe that was the whole point.Mark E. Green, an ardent Trump supporter who represents Tennessee’s Seventh District, which now includes parts of Nashville, is a vocal election denier. Mr. Green is one of 34 Republican members of Congress who exchanged text messages with the former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows as the far-right flank of the party sought nominal justification to overturn the results of a free and fair election. Even after the Jan. 6 riot, Mr. Green voted not to certify the 2020 presidential election. As Holly McCall, the editor in chief of the nonprofit news site the Tennessee Lookout, writes, such behavior from elected officials has “seeded our voting public with mistrust that continues to harm our democracy.”But wrecking American democracy is not enough for the Dead Dog Party. Last fall Mr. Green flew to Brazil to do the same thing in that much more fragile democracy. In a trip paid for by the American Conservative Union, he met with Brazilian lawmakers pushing to change election laws. The meeting’s agenda: to discuss “voting integrity policies.” We know what happened next: Thanks in part to one of Nashville’s representatives in Congress, anti-democracy riots are now an American export.Meanwhile, here at home, Mr. Green has just been named chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.Margaret Renkl, a contributing Opinion writer, is the author of the books “Graceland, at Last: Notes on Hope and Heartache From the American South” and “Late Migrations: A Natural History of Love and Loss.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Israel Moves Right

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      Israel’s new right-wing government is moving quickly to transform the country.Israel’s government, the most right-wing in its history, is barely three weeks old and already leaving its mark, quickly pressing ahead with legislation that critics fear will erode Israeli democracy. Benjamin Netanyahu has returned as prime minister, this time leading a coalition of conservative, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.I spoke with Isabel Kershner, a correspondent in The Times’s Jerusalem bureau, about the right’s push to transform Israel.Ian: What is the new government trying to accomplish?Isabel: The right-wing parties in the coalition are all extremely ideological, and Netanyahu has made a lot of concessions to them. The new minister of national security is an ultranationalist who has been convicted of inciting anti-Arab racism. He got more authority over the police. The new hard-right finance minister is claiming more authority over Jewish settlements and civilian affairs in the occupied West Bank. Ultra-Orthodox lawmakers want more autonomy and more funding for religious students and schools.The government is also moving to radically overhaul the judiciary. There’s a perception on the right that the Supreme Court is overly activist and sides with liberals on issues like settlements. Now the coalition wants to give parliament more power to select judges and override Supreme Court rulings. Critics say the coalition’s proposed changes would completely change the nature of Israel’s liberal democracy, which is dynamic but also fragile. Israel doesn’t have a formal constitution; it has basic laws that can be changed with 61 out of 120 votes in the parliament. Netanyahu’s coalition has 64.Netanyahu is on trial for corruption. Has that made him more reliant on the far right?Israel’s whole political morass — the deadlock that’s produced five elections in four years — is basically because Netanyahu has been indicted on corruption charges but won’t step aside. In the past, Netanyahu preferred to form governments with more centrist or even center-left parties. This time, the centrists refused to align with a prime minister on trial, so Netanyahu was at the mercy of far-right parties after the election. They were the only partners he could form a government with, and they knew that.How has the country reacted?What’s taken many Israelis by surprise is the dizzying speed and determination with which the new government has moved ahead. That’s really galvanized the opposition. Before the election, the liberal and centrist parties in parliament basically failed to cooperate with each other. Suddenly you’re seeing them sitting together, planning the next demonstration and making radical statements of their own. Yair Lapid, the centrist opposition leader, said the judicial overhaul constituted “extreme regime change” and could eliminate Israeli democracy.Israeli soldiers close off the entrance to a Palestinian neighborhood in the West Bank.Samar Hazboun for The New York TimesIt reminds me of the mood in the U.S. after Donald Trump got elected.There was a pro-L.G.B.T.Q. protest on the day the new government was sworn in, because Netanyahu’s coalition includes some extremely anti-gay lawmakers. There have since been protests, including a big one last night, in Tel Aviv, a more secular, liberal city about an hour from Jerusalem.Israel has seen big protests before. In recent years anti-Netanyahu demonstrators protested outside the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem. But that was a much more grass-roots, bottom-up movement. What we’re seeing now is the leaders of the opposition parties calling on people to come out into the streets.What does the new government mean for relations with the Palestinians?The levels of confidence are below zero. One of the main concerns for the Palestinian Arabs who make up one-fifth of Israel’s citizens is a surge in crime, murders and criminal gang warfare. The previous Israeli government, which for the first time included a small Islamic Arab party in the governing coalition, prioritized fighting crime in conjunction with Arab local authorities. Now the minister overseeing the police has a history of being an anti-Arab activist and provocateur. Meanwhile, the situation regarding the Palestinians in the occupied territories was already tense, and things have quickly become confrontational.How has all this left Israelis feeling about the state of their politics?Things here feel more polarized than ever, and there’s a lot at stake. The country is split over what kind of democracy Israel should be and how it’s going to relate to Palestinians. Even among the half of the country that did vote for a right-wing party, not all of them are happy. It’s gone a bit further than some of them wanted. Some are throwing their hands up or switching off the news. Anecdotally, I’m hearing about more people applying for foreign passports. Among those who oppose the government, there’s a kind of doomsday feel.More about Isabel: She grew up in the United Kingdom, speaks Hebrew and studied Arabic at Oxford University. She spent a gap year in Israel, then another year in Egypt. An early obsession with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict led her to journalism.Related: Will the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem be built on confiscated Palestinian land?, Rashid Khalidi asks in Times Opinion.NEWSInternationalPatients arrive at the emergency room of a Shanghai hospital.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesChina reported nearly 60,000 deaths linked to Covid in the month since it lifted its strict pandemic restrictions.A plane crash in Nepal killed at least 68 people.Ecuador’s failure to curb some Amazon drilling shows how global financial forces drive biodiversity loss.War in UkraineA Russian strike destroyed an apartment building in Dnipro, Ukraine, killing at least 21 people in one of the largest losses of civilian lives away from the frontline.Britain said that it would give battle tanks to Ukrainian forces, breaching a Western taboo against sending such powerful weapons.Russia has looted Ukraine’s museums in what experts say is the biggest art heist since World War II.PoliticsPresident Biden’s aides found more classified documents at his Delaware home than previously revealed.The special counsel investigating the documents will have to reconstruct the frenetic last days of Biden’s vice presidency, The Times’s Peter Baker writes.Representative George Santos spoke under an alternate identity and encouraged transgender people to vote Republican at an L.G.B.T.Q. event in 2019.Other Big StoriesMore storms are soaking California, putting nearly 26 million people under flood watch.Someone in Maine won an estimated $1.35 billion in the Mega Millions lottery, its second-largest jackpot ever.Auburn University banned TikTok on campus Wi-Fi networks, but students are still using the platform on their phones.FROM OPINIONJoe Biden has a path back to political popularity — and to winning re-election, says Ross Douthat.Prince Harry’s memoir is about hunting and being hunted, Maureen Dowd writes.Sexual violence remains a global scourge we haven’t done enough to fight, Nicholas Kristof writes.The Sunday question: What do Biden’s classified document revelations mean for Donald Trump?Prosecutors are now less likely to charge Trump for keeping government records at Mar-a-Lago, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board writes. Good, says The Washington Post’s David Von Drehle: Indicting Trump would reinvigorate his support in a moment of weakness.MORNING READSA dog at Pitti Uomo, the men’s clothing trade fair in Italy.Clara Vannucci for The New York TimesDesigner pet apparel: A multibillion-dollar market includes dog accessories.Based on a true story? Historical dramas are flourishing — but are taking liberties with the facts.Vows: The universe brought them together twice.Sunday routine: Rachael Price, the singer of Lake Street Dive, combs old journals for lyric ideas.Advice from Wirecutter: Get ready for usernames and passwords to disappear.BOOKSPeople place offerings in the Ganges River in Varanasi, the Indian “city of the dead.”Rebecca Conway for The New York TimesSecular seeker: Pico Iyer studied the supernatural in cultures around the world.By the Book: The novelist Patrick Modiano says good books make good people.Our editors’ picks: “A Heart That Works,” a deeply moving and darkly funny memoir by the comedian Rob Delaney, and eight other books.Times best sellers: Danielle Steel’s “Without a Trace” is one of four new thrillers, all written by women, on the latest hardcover fiction list.THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINEPhoto illustration by Andrew B. MyersOn the cover: The Fed may finally be winning the war on inflation. But if it leads to a recession, those on the margins will feel the most pain.Ethicist: An ex-husband sexually abused his sister as a child. Should his partner have been warned?Eat: Add miso and pecans to your banana bread.Read the full issue.THE WEEK AHEADWhat to Watch ForThe N.F.L. playoffs continue with wild-card games today and Monday.The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, convenes Monday.Monday is Martin Luther King’s Birthday, a federal holiday. Financial markets will be closed.Tennis’ Australian Open begins Monday.Jury selection begins Tuesday in a lawsuit by Tesla shareholders against Elon Musk, accusing him of costing them billions with his tweets.The Sundance Film Festival begins Thursday.What to Cook This WeekDavid Malosh for The New York TimesAfter the holiday break, you might feel ready to try new things. Emily Weinstein felt that way, too, so she chose five weeknight meal recipes that excited her. Melissa Clark’s new Green Curry Salmon gets even better when you cook it in a pot with coconut rice. Crispy pepperoni chicken uses crushed pizza crust, inspired by the chefs at Don Angie in New York. And Yewande Komolafe recommends serving roasted mushrooms in ata din din, a Nigerian red-pepper sauce.NOW TIME TO PLAYThe pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were cardigan and carding. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Worked for the C.I.A., maybe (five letters).Take the news quiz to see how well you followed the week’s headlines.Here’s today’s Wordle.Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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      Petr Pavel and Andrej Babis to Face Off In Czech Republic Presidential Race

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      Both candidates, Petr Pavel and Andrej Babis, are expected to foster closer ties to the West.PRAGUE — In an election more important for what it ends than what it will bring, the Czech Republic completed the first round of voting for a new president on Saturday, starting the eclipse of an eccentric, hard-drinking incumbent who often put himself at odds with the Czech government and European allies by reaching out to Russia and China.With nearly all the votes counted, official results showed that none of the eight candidates running to replace President Milos Zeman, who is barred by term limits from running again, had won a clear majority. A runoff election will be held in two weeks between the top two finishers, both of whom favor closer relations with the West and the NATO alliance.No matter which of the top two candidates — a former NATO general, Petr Pavel, who won just over 35 percent of the vote, and a billionaire former prime minister, Andrej Babis, who got around 35 percent — eventually triumphs, the departure of Mr. Zeman, the Czech president for the past decade, should put the country’s foreign relations back on an unambiguously pro-Western path.The presidency is mostly ceremonial but Mr. Zeman used and, critics say, abused its limited powers to turn Prague Castle, the president’s grand official office, into an alternative foreign policy center focused on developing relations with the East rather than the West.President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic speaking at Prague Castle in October. Martin Divisek/EPA, via ShutterstockJust days before first-round voting started on Friday, Mr. Zeman held a video conference call with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, who called on Prague to “actively promote” China’s relations with East and Central Europe, not something that is likely once Mr. Zeman formally steps down in March.In an interview this week in Prague, the Czech foreign minister, Jan Lipavsky, who has often criticized China and whose appointment in 2021 Mr. Zeman tried unsuccessfully to block, said he looked forward to the post-Zeman era. “Of course, Zeman has a different view of certain areas and used to push quite heavily for more relaxed positions on Russia and China,” he said, adding that his departure should bring “a major new impulse” to Czech foreign policy.“After 10 years there will be a new figure sitting in Prague Castle and I take this as a big opportunity,” Mr. Lipavsky said. His ministry’s imposing colonnaded headquarters sits just a few hundred yards from Prague Castle, a route strewn with political and personal minefields.Otto Eibl, the head of the political science department at Masaryk University in the city of Brno, said the presidency, despite its restricted constitutional powers, carried special moral weight in the Czech Republic, in part because of the stature and international renown of Vaclav Havel, a writer who in 1989 became the first post-communist president of what was then Czechoslovakia.Petr Pavel, one of the two candidates chosen for the runoff election to succeed Mr. Zeman, at his campaign headquarters in Prague, on Saturday. Mr. Pavel had been the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee. Filip Singer/EPA, via Shutterstock“It is a ceremonial job but a symbol of something important for Czechs,” Mr. Eibl said, adding: “The Zeman era is over and regardless of who wins, the situation will change. He harmed Czech foreign policy. He was more open to the East, more open to Russia and to China.”That Czechs consider the presidency important was reflected in a voter turnout of more than 68 percent in the first round.The Czech government, headed by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, a center-right former academic, has been a robust supporter of Ukraine, providing Soviet-era T-72 tanks and other military hardware. But the government has had to constantly look over its shoulder at Mr. Zeman, who has backed his country’s policy on Ukraine but diverted attention from other foreign policy goals.Appalled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Zeman has in recent months curbed his earlier enthusiasm for close relations with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, while maintaining warm relations with Mr. Putin’s closest European friends, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary and President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, both authoritarian strongman leaders.He has also lobbied hard against the Czech Republic following the Baltic States in taking a tough stand against China, despite the detention in China of his former special economic adviser, a mysterious Chinese energy tycoon, Ye Jianming.In contrast to Mr. Zeman, the two presidential candidates who will face off in a second round of voting at the end of January both look west, rather than east, even though each started his career in Communist-ruled Czechoslovakia and was a member of the Party.Andrej Babis, who is also running to succeed Mr. Zeman, arriving at his campaign headquarters in Prague, on Saturday. Mr. Babis is a former prime minister of the Czech Republic. David W Cerny/ReutersA day after Mr. Zeman spoke with Mr. Xi, Mr. Babis, a billionaire tycoon who figured as an informant on the books of the Communist-era secret service in Slovakia, flew to Paris to meet the French president, Emmanuel Macron. The Paris trip was widely seen as an effort to burnish his pro-Western credentials and fend of criticism from liberals that he will continue the eastward-leaning inclination of Mr. Zeman, a past political ally.Unlike Mr. Orban in Hungary, a fellow populist with whom he has good relations, Mr. Babis has evinced no sympathy for Russia and, during his time as prime minister from 2017 to 2021, he presided over a dramatic deterioration of relations with Moscow, accusing Russian military intelligence of blowing up a Czech arms depot in 2014. Mr. Zeman said Russia’s responsibility had not been clearly established, which challenged the findings of Czech and Western intelligence services.Mr. Babis’s rival in the runoff vote, Mr. Pavel, known as “the General,” also had close ties to the Communist system in the past but survived rigorous post-Communist vetting of his loyalties and rose to become chief of the Czech Army’s general staff before taking over as head of the NATO Military Committee.Mr. Zeman, a rambunctious, old-school politician with a knack for connecting with ordinary people, delights in offending effete liberal sensibilities and conventional wisdom. He has frequently been written off as a has-been, particularly when he was hospitalized in 2021 with what seemed like a life-threatening illness. He has always bounced back.But the election of a new president, Mr. Eibl said, means that “this really is the end of the Zeman era.” More

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      How a Mob Tried to Oust Brazil’s Lula

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      As the bus made its way from Brazil’s agricultural heartland to the capital, Andrea Barth pulled out her phone to ask fellow passengers, one by one, what they intended to do once they arrived.“Overthrow the thieves,” one man replied.“Take out ‘Nine-Finger,’” said another, referring to Brazil’s leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who lost part of a finger decades ago in a factory accident.“You might escape a lightning strike,” another man said, as if confronting Mr. Lula himself. “But you won’t escape me.”As the passengers described their plans for violence, more than a hundred other buses bulging with supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president, were also descending on Brasília, the capital.Video posted on social media shows dozens of Bolsonaro supporters arriving in Brasília by bus.Jakelyne Loiola, via TwitterA day later, on Jan. 8, a pro-Bolsonaro mob unleashed mayhem that shocked the country and was broadcast around the world. Rioters invaded and ransacked Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices, intending, many of them said, to spur military leaders to topple Mr. Lula, who had taken office just a week earlier.The chaotic attack bore an unsettling resemblance to the Jan. 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol: Hundreds of right-wing protesters, claiming an election was rigged, stomping through the halls of power.Each episode rattled one of the world’s largest democracies, and almost two years to the day after the U.S. attack, last Sunday’s assault showed that far-right extremism, inspired by antidemocratic leaders and fed by conspiracy theories, remains a grave threat.Mr. Lula and judicial authorities have moved swiftly to reassert control, arresting more than 1,150 rioters, clearing the encampments that gave them refuge and searching for their funders and organizers.But questions continue to swirl about how a relatively small band of unarmed protesters, who had largely publicized their plans, were able so easily to storm the country’s most important government buildings.The New York Times spoke with law enforcement, government officials, eyewitnesses and protesters, and reviewed dozens of videos and hundreds of social media posts to piece together what happened. The reporting shows that a mob, led by what appeared to be a relatively small group of extremists bent on destruction, swiftly and effortlessly overwhelmed a drastically outnumbered police presence.It also shows that some officers not only failed to take any action against rioters, but, in at least one case, waved a spectator toward Congress.The imbalance between protesters and the police remains a central focus of the authorities’ investigation, and interviews with security officials yielded accusations of gross negligence and even active complicity in the mayhem. After the riot, federal authorities suspended the governor responsible for protecting the buildings and ordered the arrest of two top security officials who worked for him. More

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      Video Shows Brazil Rioters Breaching Inadequate Security

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      It was an unfair fight in front of Brazil’s Congress. On one side of a metal barrier were a few dozen police officers, some armed with pepper spray, others with clubs. On the other was a rapidly growing mob of more than 1,000 angry protesters, falsely convinced that the presidential election had been stolen and dead-set on doing something about it.At 2:42 p.m. on Sunday, almost in unison, protesters at one end of the street easily pulled down the metal barrier, while at the other end, protesters pushed right through a plastic roadblock, according to a video obtained by The New York Times. A few police officers sprayed chemical agents, but within seconds, the crowd was surging through.The moment was the start of a riot that left Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices ransacked and the nation’s democracy under its worst threat in decades. The previously unpublished video of the moment lays bare the woefully inadequate security at some of the nation’s most important institutions, which is now at the center of the wider investigation into how the mayhem could have occurred, despite ample warning signs.Federal authorities have laid much of the blame on the handful of men who run the federal district that includes Brazil’s capital, Brasília. They accuse the district’s governor and security chief of being either negligent or, worse, complicit, and they have already taken action against them.Police inspecting the damage to the Supreme Court on Tuesday in Brasília, the capital.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesIn the hours after the riot, Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice, suspended Ibaneis Rocha, the district’s governor, from his post for at least 90 days. Mr. Moraes then approved an arrest warrant from the federal police for the district’s security chief, Anderson Torres, as well as its police chief, Fabio Augusto Vieira. In votes on Wednesday, the Supreme Court confirmed both orders.Mr. Moraes, a controversial figure who has been criticized for overstepping his authority, said evidence showed the men knew that protesters were planning violence, but did little to stop it.Neither he nor other federal authorities have disclosed that specific evidence. Instead, he cited the inadequate number of security forces and the fact that roughly 100 buses of protesters were allowed to enter Brasília with little monitoring.What is clear is that the federal government largely ceded responsibility to the district to protect the capital in the face of protests that, according to a slew of social media posts in the days prior, appeared likely to turn violent. The federal government pays the district roughly $2 billion a year to provide security, and the district had successfully protected the capital during several large, tense political events in recent months.A four-page security plan obtained by The Times showed that, during the planned protests on Sunday, much of the responsibility for protecting the federal government’s buildings fell on the district police.Understand the Riots in Brazil’s CapitalThousands of rioters supporting Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president of Brazil,  stormed the nation’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential offices on Jan. 8.Anatomy of a Mass Attack: After Mr. Bolsonaro lost the presidential election in October, many believed that the threat of violence from his supporters would recede. Here is what went wrong.The Investigations: Authorities face several major questions as they piece together how rioters briefly seized the seats of Brazil’s government.Digital Playbook: Misinformation researchers are studying how the internet was used ahead of the riots in Brazil. Many are drawing a comparison to the Jan. 6 attack.World Leaders React: Governments in Latin America and beyond were swift to condemn the unrest. President Biden called the attack “outrageous.”The document, which was signed Friday afternoon and sent to more than a dozen top security officials in Brasília, tasked the district police to keep demonstrators out of Three Powers Plaza, which includes Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential offices, and to “maintain reinforcement of personnel” throughout the protests.But that plan did not please Flávio Dino, Brazil’s justice minister, when he heard about it on Saturday morning in a phone call with Mr. Rocha, the district governor, according to an official in Mr. Dino’s office who spoke on the condition of anonymity because officials had not yet agreed to release the details of the call.Mr. Dino did not want protesters on the national esplanade, Brazil’s version of the National Mall in Washington, a long grassy stretch that leads directly to Brazil’s most important government buildings. In response, Mr. Rocha agreed to change the plan accordingly and make the esplanade off limits, according to the official in Mr. Dino’s office.Later that night, according to the official, Mr. Dino was surprised when he saw a news article that said Mr. Rocha would let the protest go forward on the esplanade with “tranquillity and security.”Supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro stormed the presidential office in Brasília on Sunday.Eraldo Peres/Associated PressThe protests went forward, but the tranquillity and security was lacking.On Sunday, thousands of supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, the ousted far-right president, marched onto the esplanade, dressed in the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag and carrying signs that demanded a military coup and that referenced voter-fraud conspiracy theories long peddled by Mr. Bolsonaro.The district police was there, but not in full force. Authorities have not provided the precise number of police officers present on Sunday, but according to videos and eyewitness accounts, there were far fewer officers than for other recent demonstrations in the capital..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.By contrast, there were several hundred thousand people in the same spot a week earlier for the inauguration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. While those crowds were there to celebrate, rather than wreak havoc, the district deployed all of its more than 10,000 police officers, far more than were on the ground on Sunday.Why there were so few police officers is now a central question for investigators. The security plan did not list a number of officers, but instead just suggested that the police should have sufficient personnel to handle the protests.Federal authorities have pointed the finger at Mr. Torres and Mr. Vieira, the district’s security chief and police chief, who have been ordered arrested.Mr. Torres, in particular, has come under scrutiny. He was Mr. Bolsonaro’s former justice minister and started in his new post in the district on Jan. 2. He quickly replaced much of the district’s security staff, despite its recent track record of success during the elections, and then left for vacation in Florida, where Mr. Bolsonaro has also been staying in recent weeks.On the day of the protests, Mr. Torres, who was ostensibly in charge of the capital’s security, was thousands of miles away.Mr. Torres said Tuesday that he would return to Brazil to defend himself. “I have always guided my actions with ethics and legality. I believe in the Brazilian justice system and in the strength of the institutions. I am certain that the truth will prevail,” he said on Twitter. Mr. Rocha, the district governor, has now also begun to point the finger at his deputies for the security lapses.Alberto Toron, Mr. Rocha’s lawyer, said in an interview on Wednesday that the security plans were adequate, but that the security forces failed to carry them out, even suggesting that they did so deliberately.“We saw videos, for example, of police fraternizing with demonstrators,” he said. “There is a hidden hand here, which not only demobilized the police and the Army not to act, but it seems that there was an orchestration for something broader to happen.”“The governor was deceived,” he added. “He suffered a process of sabotage.”Several videos appear to show the police as indifferent to the protests. In one, a man asks a group of chatting police officers if he can walk all the way to the end of the esplanade and take a bath in the reflecting pool in front of Congress. “Everything is open today?” he asks. The police appear to respond affirmatively, and wave him in the direction of Congress.Another video shows that after protesters ascend onto the roof of Congress and break into the building, about 10 relaxed police officers watch the scene, chatting with protesters, texting and filming the scene themselves.It was not until the protesters had broken inside the government buildings that military and federal law enforcement arrived to retake control.Federal security officials in charge of protecting the presidential offices had not expected violence during the protests, and only asked for reinforcements from the Army after rioters broke inside the building, according to an Army general who spoke anonymously to discuss a sealed investigation.Federal police said late Wednesday that they had arrested 1,159 people, nearly all under the suspicion of taking part in the riots. Authorities have said in recent days that they are now turning their attention to the political and business elites who helped organize, fund and aid the riots.The actions of security officials and police officers are expected to remain a central focus of investigators in the months ahead. Brazil’s Senate plans to begin a congressional investigation next month. On Wednesday, 60 U.S. and Brazilian members of Congress released a joint statement, condemning extremism in both countries that led to attacks on their capitols.Lis Moriconi More