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      Russian source for Steele’s Trump dossier arrested by US authorities

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      Trump-Russia investigationRussian source for Steele’s Trump dossier arrested by US authoritiesFive-page indictment released by justice department accuses analyst Igor Danchenko of lying to FBI Luke HardingThu 4 Nov 2021 15.34 EDTLast modified on Thu 4 Nov 2021 16.33 EDTA Russian analyst who was the main source for Christopher Steele’s dossier on Donald Trump and Moscow has been arrested by US authorities, the justice department said on Thursday.Igor Danchenko now faces charges as part of the investigation by John Durham, the special counsel appointed by the Trump administration to examine the origins of the FBI’s investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russia.Danchenko collected much of the intelligence behind Steele’s dossier during three trips to Russia in summer and autumn 2016. He was the chief source behind its most incendiary allegation: that Trump was compromised during a trip to Moscow in November 2013 for the Miss Universe beauty pageant.Trump has vehemently denied the claim. Last summer, however, a report by the Senate intelligence committee said that the FSB spy agency presided over a network of secret cameras inside the Ritz-Carlton hotel where Trump stayed, including in guest bedrooms. An FSB intelligence officer was permanently on site, it said.Trump in Moscow: what happened at Miss Universe in 2013Read moreThe five-page indictment released on Thursday accuses Danchenko of lying repeatedly to the FBI when interviewed in 2017 – a criminal offense. These include over his dealings with an unnamed US PR executive with close links to the Democrats. The executive’s information found its way into some of the dossier’s memos, a fact Danchenko allegedly concealed.The FBI further accuses Danchenko of making up a conversation with Sergei Millian, a Russian American property broker with links to Trump, who appears in the dossier as “source D”. He appears to have been credited by Danchenko with the claim that Trump watched sex workers perform “golden showers” by urinating on each other at the hotel. In 2019, the special counsel Robert Mueller said no criminal wrongdoing had taken place between the Trump campaign and Moscow. But Mueller noted that there were multiple contacts in 2016 between Russian spies and Trump aides. The Kremlin had run a “sweeping and systemic” operation to help Trump win, Mueller said.Trump’s justice department claimed the former president was the victim of a witch-hunt. It repeatedly cited the dossier as evidence that the FBI’s investigation into Trump’s relations with Russia was biased and unfair. But the FBI investigation began independently from the dossier, after it emerged Moscow had hacked thousands of Democratic party emails.Democrats believe Durham’s inquiries to be politically driven. But so far the Biden administration has not tried to stop him. Danchenko is the third person, and second in a two-month span, to face indictment with five separate counts on Thursday of lying. In September cybersecurity lawyer, Michael Sussmann was also accused of lying to the FBI.Speaking to the Guardian in October, Danchenko, who is based in Washington DC, defended his work on the dossier. “I stand by it,” he said. He said he did not resile from explosive allegations that Trump may have been secretly filmed with sex workers during his Moscow trip. “I got it right,” he declared.He said the “salacious” material in the dossier formed a small part of a 35-page document. The allegation would be “amusing”, he said, were it not for the fact that any covert FSB recording might be used for blackmail purposes. Trump’s false ‘Russian spy’ claims put me in danger, says Steele dossier sourceRead moreThe bipartisan report by the Senate intelligence committee was dismissive of Steele’s dossier, but corroborated key elements in it. It laid out multiple contacts between Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager who features in the dossier, and Konstantin Kilimnik, described as a Russian intelligence officer. Speaking last year Danchenko said a campaign against him by leading Republicans was designed to deflect from the damaging Senate report. It included claims – which he denies – he was a Russian spy. “I think they thought I would be an easy target to discredit the dossier. By doubling down on this they would be able to discredit the whole Russia investigation,” he said.During his interviews with the FBI, Danchenko appeared to downplay the reliability of his own information – a point seized upon by Republican commentators. According to the justice department inspector general, Michael Horowitz, Danchenko told the bureau his work with sub-sources in Russia amounted to “hearsay” and “conversation had with friends over beers”. Statements about Trump’s sexual activities were “jest”, he said. A lawyer for Danchenko had no immediate comment.TopicsTrump-Russia investigationTrump administrationRussiaDonald TrumpEuropeUS politicsFBInewsReuse this content More

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      in UK Politics

      Boat at centre of row returns home as UK’s Lord Frost arrives in Paris for key post-Brexit talks

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      A British boat held by the French for alleged illegal fishing arrived back in England just as crunch talks to end the escalating licensing crisis were set to begin in Paris.The Cornelis Gert Jan steamed into Shoreham, West Sussex, early on Thursday morning following a week on the quay in the Normandy port of Le Havre.But – despite being allowed to return home without paying a £125,000 bail bond – skipper Jondy Ward still faces criminal trial back in France in August.This will be one of the key issues discussed by Brexit Minister Lord Frost when he arrives in Paris today, when he will call for an end to French threats “once and for all”.He is due to meet the outspoken French Europe Minister Clement Beaune who said last week as the fishing row exploded that France needed “to speak the language of force” because “it is the only thing this [British] government understands”.Such aggressive rhetoric has included threats by the French to wreak havoc on cross-Channel trade and even to shut down power supplies to the Channel Islands.French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday called off plans to block British trawlers from offloading catches in French ports and to introduce new checks on lorries arriving in the country. This came after authorities in Jersey offered to speed up approval for fishing vessels in its waters, in an attempt to defuse the post-Brexit crisis.However, President Macron’s spokesman Gabriel Attal has now warned that sanctions will still go ahead unless Lord Frost offers significant concessions.“All options are on the table,” said Mr Attal. “We may need to implement those measures if we do not reach an agreement.”Under the Brexit trade deal, French vessels are able to fish in the area between six and 12 miles from the UK’s shores until 2026 if they can prove they had previously been operating in those waters.But some boats have had their applications for permits refused because, it is claimed, they have not provided sufficient documentation.Downing Street has insisted it was not looking at weakening the evidence requirements for granting licences as part of attempts to negotiate a solution to the dispute.The Scottish-registered scallop dredger Cornelis Gert Jan docked at Shoreham, near Brighton, at 4.46am on Thursday.Its owners, Macduff Shellfish, have accused the French of using the vessel as a ‘pawn’ in the escalating dispute.Extreme threats suggested by the French have included cutting off electricity to the Channel Islands.Power is supplied to Jersey and Guernsey by undersea cables from Normandy, meaning that it can be switched off almost instantly. More

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      in UK Politics

      Owners of British fishing boat seized in France ordered to pay €150,000 before it can leave

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      The owners of the British trawler seized by France during the escalating row over fishing licences will have to pay bail of more than £125,000 before being allowed to return the UK.News of the sum emerged on Monday and follows the Scottish skipper of the Cornelis Gert Jan being told that he faces a fine of more than £63,000 if convicted following a criminal trial next year.It also came as the the British Foreign Secretary increased the rhetoric over the squabble, by giving the French government a 48-hour deadline to withdraw threats against Britain over post-Brexit fishing licences.Liz Truss blasted “completely unreasonable threats” to the fishing industry and threatened to sue France under the terms of the Brexit deal.“They need to withdraw those threats, or else we will use the mechanisms of our trade agreement with the EU to take action,” she said, as the Anglo-French relationship was heading for Brexit meltdown on the first day of the UN COP26 climate summit, which the UK is hosting.She was speaking after the Seine-Maritime prefecture confirmed that the Cornelis would remain in the Normandy port of Le Havre unless its crew paid “a 150,000 euros deposit” – the equivalent of more than £125,000.A spokesperson said: “The boat will not be allowed to leave until that sum is paid.”It far outweighs anything the boat might have earned during what started off as a five-day trip to France to fish for scallops.The boat was detained by gendarmes last Wednesday, and escorted to the quayside at Le Havre, where they have remained every since, sparking a diplomatic incident.Its skipper, who has not been formally named, has been charged with “acts of unauthorised sea fishing in French maritime salt waters by a third-party vessel to the European Union”.Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the growing diplomatic row at the G20 in Rome at the weekend.Mr Johnson said he had been “puzzled” to read a letter from Paris to the EU which, he claimed, asked “for Britain to be punished for leaving the EU”.Referring directly to Brexit, the Prime Minister said: “I don’t believe that is compatible either with the spirit or the letter of the Withdrawal Agreement of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and that’s probably all I’ll say about that.”In turn, Mr Macron said: “I don’t want escalation. We need to be serious. I don’t want to have to use retaliation measures because that wouldn’t help our fishermen.”Mr Macron said Paris had offered proposals to London and “now the ball is in Britain’s court”.France’s European minister Clement Beaune said the current row was “a breach” of the Brexit agreement and that it was a “political choice” on London’s part.With no side backing down and stalemate looming, Tuesday could see a major escalation in the crisis.Andrew Brown, director of Scottish firm MacDuff Shellfish, which own the Cornelis, said the boat was being used as a “pawn” by the French, and had not acted illegally.Mr Brown said last week: “We are looking to the UK government to defend the rights of the UK fishing fleet and ensure that the fishing rights provided under the Brexit fishing agreement are fully respected by the EU.”On Monday morning, the Cornelis was still moored in Le Havre, with its crew of eight on board.The boat headed out from Shoreham, Sussex, early last Tuesday morning.Her seizure is the latest move by France in an ongoing row with the UK over who has rights to fishing grounds in the Channel now Britain has left the EU.Clement Beaune, France’s Europe minister, has said “we need to speak the language of force” to Britain because it is “the only thing this government understands”.He was immediately accused of “sabre rattling” by British critics, as was Annick Girardin, the Maritime Minister in Paris, who said: “It’s not war, but it is a fight.” More

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      in UK Politics

      Brexit: EU must ‘show damage’ to UK as warning to other nations, says French PM in escalation of fishing row

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      The EU must show that Brexit has been“damaging” to the UK, the French prime minister has told Brussels in a letter calling for support for tougher actions over the Channel fishing dispute.Jean Castex wrote a letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday setting out reasons why the EU should act against Britain over the limited granting of licences for French fishermen to operate in British waters post-Brexit.He wrote that the EU had to make clear that “leaving the union is more damaging than remaining in it”.Paris is threatening to increase checks on British boats, stop them landing in French ports, slow customs arrangements in Calais and increase tariffs on energy bills in Jersey from Tuesday unless French fishermen are granted more licences to British waters around Jersey and Guernsey.A translation of Mr Castex’s letter says: “The uncooperative attitude of the United Kingdom today risks not only causing great harm to fishermen, mainly French, but also for the [European] union, in that it sets a precedent for the future and challenges our credibility and our ability to assert our rights with regard to international commitments signed by the union.“It therefore seems necessary for the European Union to show its total determination to obtain full respect for the agreement by the United Kingdom and to assert its rights by using the levers at its disposal in a firm, united and proportionate manner. “It is essential to clearly show to European public opinion that respect for subscribed engagement is non-negotiable and that there is more damage in leaving the union than in remaining there.”Mr Castex continued in his letter: “If no satisfactory solution is found in this context, the European Union will have to apply Article 506 of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and take corrective measures, in a manner proportionate to the economic and social damage resulting from the breaches.”He suggested to Ms Von der Leyen that they could impose “customs duties on certain fishery products” as punishment.The “restoration of trust” lies upon the UK granting French fishermen more fishing licences, his letter also says.Boris Johnson has said that he would “do whatever is necessary to ensure UK interests” if France carries out its threats over the licences.He said that the Anglo-French relationship was undergoing “turbulence” and that the French authorities’ decision to impound a British fishing vessel may have broken international law.Mr Johnson will meet with French president Emmanuel Macron over the weekend at the G20 summit in Rome for their first face-to-face encounter in four months – after both sides have been accusing each other of breaching the Brexit agreement.The PM, who arrived in Rome last night, responded to the French threats by saying: “We fear that there may be a breach in terms of the Trade Co-operation Agreement implicit in what’s happening. We will standby to take the appropriate action.”In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Macron suggested that the UK’s “credibility” was at stake over the dispute.He told the newspaper: “When you spend years negotiating a treaty and then a few months later you do the opposite of what was decided on the aspects that suit you the least, it is not a big sign of your credibility.” More

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      in UK Politics

      Brexit: Detained British trawler’s crew ‘in good spirits’ and will remain on board boat in French port

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      The crew of a British fishing boat detained by French police are “in good spirits” and will remain onboard the vessel until its release, its owner has said. Scottish firm Macduff Shellfish said its main concern was the welfare of the crew on the Cornelis-Gert Jan, which was boarded by French authorities on Wednesday.France said the scallop vessel was detained for not having the correct licence to fish its waters, but the trawler’s owners said it was operating legally.It was still being held in the port at Le Havre, a city in Normandy, on Thursday.It comes amid a bitter and escalating row between France and the UK over post-Brexit fishing rights. The UK government has summoned the French ambassador in an attempt to make progress in the dispute. As the Macduff Shellfish boat remained moored in Le Havre’s port, Andrew Brown, the Scottish firm’s director of sustainability and public affairs, said: “Our priority concern is for the welfare of the crew of the Cornelis.“The crew are in good spirits and will remain on board the vessel until its release.”Mr Brown said on Thursday the skipper of the boat had left the ship to be interviewed by authorities and “we have ensured that he has legal representation throughout these discussions”.He added the scallop vessel was ordered into a French port on Wednesday “while legally fishing for scallop in French waters”. “It appears our vessel has been caught up in the ongoing dispute between the UK and France on the implementation of the Brexit Fishing Agreement,” he said.“We are looking to the UK government to defend the rights of the UK fishing fleet and ensure that the fishing rights provided under the Brexit Fishing agreement are fully respected by the EU.“We will vigorously defend ourselves against any claims.”The French maritime ministry said two British vessels were sanctioned by authorities on Wednesday: one for obstructing checks and the second for not having a licence to fish in French waters. The latter was diverted into Le Havre’s port, the statement added. George Eustice, the UK environment secretary, told MPs on Thursday he understood the Cornelis was on a list provided by the Marine Management Organisation to the European Union, who granted a licence.“We are seeing some reports that, for some reason, they were subsequently withdrawn from the list; it’s unclear why that might have been at the moment,” he added. It comes amid anger in France after the UK and Jersey turned down applications from dozens of French boats to fish in their waters in what Paris said was a breach of Britain’s post-Brexit trade deal with the EU.French ministers have warned they will block British boats from some ports and tighten checks on vessels travelling between France and the UK if the issue is not resolved by Tuesday.Annick Giradin, France’s minister for the seas, tweeted on Thursday: “It’s been nine months since French fishermen have not been able to work.” She also accused the UK of breaching its agreement.A UK government spokesperson said proposed French actions were “unjustified” and they regretted “confrontational language” used by France in the row. The Foreign Office on Thursday summoned French ambassador Catherine Colonna for talks after Brexit minister David Frost held a crisis meeting of senior cabinet colleagues.Lord Frost said he was “concerned by French plans on fisheries and beyond” and expected to have more to say on Friday. More

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      in Elections

      Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s Chancellor, Faces Corruption Probe

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      The future of the chancellor’s coalition looked increasingly uncertain after prosecutors opened a criminal investigation on suspicion that he paid off pollsters and journalists.BERLIN — The government of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of Austria teetered near collapse on Friday after federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation against him this week on suspicion of using government funds to pay for favorable opinion polls and news articles.Mr. Kurz, who has been feted as the young face of European conservatism, vigorously denied the charges. But he is now facing calls to step aside as three opposition parties plan to introduce a vote of no-confidence against him at a special parliamentary session next week.President Alexander Van der Bellen addressed the nation on Friday evening, reassuring Austrians that while the latest crisis threatened the government, the country’s democratic institutions remained intact and functional. “We have a crisis of government, not a crisis of state,” Mr. Van der Bellen said. “Our democracy is prepared for all possible situations, including this one.”The future of Austria’s government will now depend on the left-leaning Greens, the junior coalition partners, who were always uncomfortable political bedfellows with Mr. Kurz and who had campaigned on a platform of “clean politics.” Prominent voices in the Greens party now see that position and their support for the government as untenable under a chancellor who is suspected of using funds from the finance ministry to pay for positive media coverage.They are now calling for another member of his People’s Party to take over the chancellorship. Short of that, they could pull out of the ruling coalition and try to form a new government with a combination of smaller opposition parties, though they lack the numbers in Parliament. If all fails, the country could face new elections. “Such a person is no longer capable of performing his duties, and of course the People’s Party has a responsibility here to nominate someone who is beyond reproach to lead this government,” Sigi Maurer, the Greens’ leader in Parliament, said of Mr. Kurz.Mr. Kurz, 35, says he is determined to hang on. He rose to prominence after seizing control of the conservative People’s Party and refashioned it by co-opting many of the messages of the far right at a time when anti-immigrant populism was surging in Europe.After an intense, social media-savvy campaign focused largely on patriotic themes and a hard line against migration, Mr. Kurz became Austria’s youngest chancellor after elections in 2017, when he forged a government that included the far-right Freedom Party. Less than two years later that government collapsed after the far right was itself engulfed in scandal when a video emerged showing the Freedom Party’s then leader promising government contracts in exchange for financial support from a woman claiming to be a wealthy Russian. In new elections in 2019 Mr. Kurz came out on top once again, but pivoted to form a government with the left-leaning Greens, demonstrating his skill as a political shape shifter.Now it is Mr. Kurz who is suspected of the ethical breach that may implode his latest government.Austria’s federal prosecutor said on Wednesday it had launched a criminal investigation against Mr. Kurz and nine others on suspicion of misusing government funds to pay for polls and articles in the news media that cast him in a favorable light in the months leading up to and just after his election to the chancellery.Mr. Kurz before a meeting with Austria’s president, Alexander van der Bellen, on Thursday in Vienna.Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images“Between the years 2016 and at least 2018, budgetary funds of the Federal Ministry of Finance were used to finance surveys conducted by a polling company in the interest of a political party and its top official that were exclusively motivated by party politics, and sometimes manipulated,” the prosecutor’s office said. The results of the polls were then published in media belonging to the Österreich Media Group, “without being declared as an advertisement,” the prosecutors said. In exchange for the favorable coverage, prosecutors said they suspected that “payments were made to the media conglomerate.”The chancellor denied it. “I know what I did and I know that the accusations are false,” Mr. Kurz told reporters in Vienna on Thursday, where he met with Mr. Van der Bellen. “Just as the independent judiciary is an important pillar of our democracy, so is the presumption of innocence essential to our rule of law,” Mr. Kurz said. “At least, that has been the case until now.”Mr. Kurz and the leaders of his conservative party have so far rejected calls for him to step aside, circling the wagons instead. “The leaders of the People’s Party today made very clear that they only want to stay in this government under the leadership of Sebastian Kurz,” Elisabeth Köstinger, a member of the party and minister for tourism in Mr. Kurz’s government, told reporters.Mr. Kurz after parliamentary elections in 2017, when he joined the far right in government. Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesSince taking over leadership of the People’s Party, Mr. Kurz has been its unchallenged leader, said Alexandra Siegl, a political analyst with Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies in Vienna.“You could say that the People’s Party in the past few years has been Sebastian Kurz,” she said. “There is no one else in the party who is as well known across the country and there is no obvious successor.”But there is also no easy path for his opponents to take power. The three opposition parties lack the majority needed for their no-confidence vote to succeed, unless several lawmakers from the Greens join them in support. On Thursday the leaders of the Greens met with their counterparts from the Socialists, the largest opposition party in Parliament, to try to find a solution. Even if the two were to join forces with the smaller, liberal Neos party, they would still lack a majority and could only survive by securing the support of the far-right Freedom Party, itself an awkward and potentially unstable proposition.“It is imperative that Mr. Kurz step down,” the Freedom Party’s current leader, Herbert Kickl, told reporters on Friday. He gave no indication whether his party would be willing to support a three-way minority government led by the Socialists. Failing that, Austria could face new elections — territory where Mr. Kurz has shown twice he knows how to perform. The Greens, on the other hand, have seen their support dwindle since 2019 and such a move could jeopardize two of their signature bills, which have been worked out with the government, but not yet passed into law.The Chancellery in Vienna on Wednesday.Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty ImagesBut the ongoing criminal investigation into Mr. Kurz , which will determine whether there is sufficient evidence to press charges, may make it impossible for the Greens not to bolt. On Friday, the prosecutors’ office made available more documents showing the text message exchanges between Mr. Kurz and his advisers, which included disparaging remarks about the previous conservative party leader and insults about members of the government in which he once served as foreign minister and calls to “stir up” a region against then Chancellor Christian Kern.“This hardens the suspicions against him,” Ms. Siegl said. Nevertheless, it may not be enough to shatter Mr. Kurz’s popularity among Austrians, especially a core group of supporters who continue to support his hard line on migration, she said. “They just push it to the side and say that every politician has something to hide, if you look hard enough,” she said. “No one likes to admit that they have been taken for a ride.” More

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      in UK Politics

      France accused of stealing almost five million AstraZeneca doses from UK

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      France has been accused of stealing five million coronavirus vaccine doses destined for the UK.President Emmanuel Macron allegedly worked with EU chiefs to divert the large batch of Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs to his country earlier this year.The vaccines were expected to arrive in the UK but were instead redirected from Holland at the eleventh hour, according to The Sun.The newspaper quoted senior government sources as saying the “outrageous” move could have cost lives if not for the UK’s successful rollout of the Pfizer jab.AstraZeneca boss Ruud Dobber had announced publicly on 22 March that a vaccine batch was expected to arrive in Britain from its Halix site in Holland.But it reportedly never arrived, having instead been diverted to the EU’s scheme.The Sun said it was also claimed France made a veiled threat to prime minister Boris Johnson that it would cut off supplies of Pfizer, which would have jeopardised Britain’s vaccine rollout.The alleged incident is said to have sparked a major row between Mr Johnson and his French counterpart.It came at a time when Mr Macron was criticising the AstraZeneca vaccine, claiming it was “quasi-ineffective” and telling reporters the jab “doesn’t work the way we were expecting to”.He also appeared to criticise the UK’s vaccine rollout strategy, which at the time had resulted in more people being given a first dose than any other European country.The European Union was simultaneously threatening to impose export controls on Covid-19 vaccines after a major row with AstraZeneca, which was accused of cutting initial deliveries to the bloc by up to 60 per cent.A government source told The Sun: “The French stole our vaccines at the same time as they were slagging them off in public and suggesting they weren’t safe to use.“It was an outrageous thing to do and not the action of an ally, which was made very clear to them.” More

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      in Elections

      Europe’s Social Democrats Show Signs of Life, but France Poses a Roadblock

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      Center-left parties have won a string of victories, capped by Olaf Scholz’s win in Germany. Yet, France’s struggling Socialists threaten hopes for a broader social democratic revival. PARIS — For France’s venerable Socialist Party, languishing at 4 percent support ahead of next year’s presidential elections, news of a surprise win last Sunday by its center-left counterpart in Germany offered a glimmer of hope.The slim victory by Olaf Scholz and Germany’s Social Democratic Party, along with the expected return to power of Norway’s Labor Party following a recent win, have underscored the recent success of Europe’s long-embattled social democrats. If Mr. Scholz succeeds in forming a government, social democrats in Europe’s most powerful nation will join center-left governments in Spain, Portugal and the Nordic nations of Sweden, Denmark and Finland, as well as Norway.Attention will then turn to France, where presidential elections are scheduled for next April. But in France, experts say, the social democrats’ hopes of a continent-wide revival are likely to dim.Socialist Party officials were nevertheless quick to seize on the German results as a sign that Europe’s political tides may be turning.“Never assume the battle’s already lost,’’ the Socialists’ leader, Olivier Faure, said in a Twitter post. The party’s presidential candidate, Anne Hidalgo, noted that Mr. Scholz “had beaten the odds’’ thanks to policies common to both social democratic parties.But it will take more than that to reverse the fortunes of a party that not so long ago utterly dominated French politics.After months of hinting that she would run for president, Ms. Hidalgo, 62, the second-term mayor of Paris, finally announced her candidacy in mid-September. But instead of getting an expected bounce in the polls, her approval ratings have drifted lower.Her polling is now far below not only the two favorites to meet in a showdown — President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, of the far-right National Rally — but also well below candidates from the center-right and Éric Zemmour, a writer and TV star known for his far-right views, who is not yet an official candidate.Ms. Hidalgo and President Emmanuel Macron of France in Paris this month. Mr. Macron has tried to draw voters from the left, weakening the Socialists’ position. Pool photo by Ludovic MarinOn the other side of the political spectrum, she trails the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and is neck and neck with the newly designated presidential candidate of the Greens, Yannick Jadot, polls show.The Socialists’ collapse is even more noteworthy because, less than a decade ago under the Socialist President François Hollande, the party controlled the Élysée Palace, both chambers of Parliament, a majority of big cities and nearly all the regions.“Nine years ago, this party held all the cards,’’ said Pascal Delwit, a political scientist specializing in social democracy at the Free University of Brussels. “Nine years later, it has none.’’In what became a symbol of its fall, the Socialist Party had to abandon its longtime headquarters, in one of the toniest neighborhoods of Paris, for cheaper real estate in a suburb, or banlieue, that many members never bothered visiting.Alain Bergounioux, a historian who is an expert on the Socialist Party, said that beyond crumbling at the ballot box, Socialists seem to have lost the ability to push forward their ideas and themes in a fast-moving political landscape.“They really don’t influence the national debate any longer, as public opinion has shifted to the right,’’ Mr. Bergounioux said.He added, “If it was premature to say that social democracy was dead, it would be overstating it to say that there is a renaissance.’’Seven months before the presidential elections, issues dear to the right — like immigration, crime and national identity — are dominating the political discourse. While Mr. Macron ran as a centrist in 2017, he has tacked right in a bid for the biggest slice of the electorate.The focus on these themes has only increased in recent weeks, with the intense news media attention on a possible candidacy by Mr. Zemmour. Styling himself as a Trump-like populist outsider, he has been visiting different regions on a book tour that has doubled as a campaign. A poll released this week showed that his support among potential voters in the first round of the elections has kept climbing, to 13 percent, or just three percentage points below Ms. Le Pen.Marine Le Pen at a National Rally event in Frejus in September.Daniel Cole/Associated PressFrance is an extreme, though revealing, example of the problems afflicting social democratic parties across Europe, experts say.While social democratic parties have lost support nearly everywhere amid the political fragmentation on the continent, France’s Socialist Party was also decimated by Mr. Macron’s successful creation of his centrist La République en Marche party. Some Socialist leaders abandoned their old party to join Mr. Macron, who had served as Mr. Hollande’s economy minister. In forming his government, Mr. Macron also poached from the center-right, which was less weakened than the center-left and remains a force in French politics.For decades, social democratic parties appealed to a core base of unionized, industrial workers and urban professionals with a vision of social justice and an equitable economy.But many longtime French supporters felt betrayed by Mr. Hollande’s business-friendly policies as French Socialists, like their counterparts elsewhere, were unable to protect their traditional base from globalization.While French Socialists hark back to their traditional values and now emphasize their commitment to the environment, their vision for society lacks a “strong spine,’’ Mr. Bergounioux said. In France, like elsewhere, the constituencies supporting social democratic parties tend to be made up of “aging, loyal voters who have voted for them their entire lives,’’ Mr. Delwit said.In Germany and elsewhere in Europe, the recent success of social democratic parties rested on successful jockeying — and not on the attraction of a fresh social democratic vision, experts said.Ernst Stetter, a member of the Social Democratic Party in Germany and former secretary general of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies, an umbrella group of social democratic think tanks across the continent, said the party’s victory last Sunday was “first and foremost a strategic victory” by Mr. Scholz.As vice chancellor and finance minister in the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mr. Scholz offered “change in continuity by offering a little bit more social programs, a little bit more on the environment and continuity in European and international affairs,’’ said Mr. Stetter, who is also an analyst at the Fondation Jean-Jaurès research institute in Paris.Narrow as it was, Mr. Scholz’s victory represented “the center of the Social Democratic Party, not the left,’’ said Daniel Cohn-Bendit, a French-German politician and former Green member of the European Parliament.Olaf Scholz and Ms. Hidalgo at a campaign event for Germany’s Social Democratic Party in  Cologne, Germany, this month. The French Socialists have been reassured by Mr. Scholz’s victory in last month’s election, but their chances of matching his victory appear slim.Uta Wagner/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSocialists in Spain, Portugal and the Nordic nations also owed their success to responding to local needs, not a common vision of social democracy, Mr. Cohn-Bendit said.“On immigration policy, social democrats in Denmark are to the right of many centrist parties,’’ Mr. Cohn-Bendit said, referring to a series of hard-line immigration measures adopted by Denmark’s Social Democrats.Following years of a rise in right-wing parties, social democrats now lead governments in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, and are poised to do so in Norway. But their hold on power is far more tenuous than in the past.In Norway, the Labor Party, led by Jonas Gahr Stoere, came in first in last month’s parliamentary election, but won only a little over a quarter of the total seats, one of the party’s lowest scores on record. After talks to form a broad center-left coalition failed in recent days, Mr. Stoere is now expected to become prime minister of a minority government.“There isn’t a new definition yet of what social democracy could be in today’s world,’’ Mr. Cohn-Bendit said.Mr. Stetter said he, too, was skeptical of a broad revival of social democracy. Over the past decade, social democrats had worked unsuccessfully for a revival under the banner of the “Next Left,’’ he said.Still, Mr. Stetter said he hoped that last Sunday’s election results in Germany could presage positive developments for social democrats in Europe.“If Scholz succeeds in forming a government as a social democratic chancellor, there would be a dynamic force at the heart of Europe, and that could give energy to the French Socialist Party in the campaign period before the presidential elections in April,’’ Mr. Stetter. “We have to remain optimistic.’’Members of Jeunes Socialistes, the youth organisation of the Socialist Party, at an event in August. European socialist parties tend to rely heavily on aging voters, putting them on the wrong side of the demographic tide.Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times More