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    It's been a strange trip. Four years ago, who would've thought Biden might win? | Art Cullen

    Nearly a year ago, at the side of a snowy and windswept county road in north-west Iowa, I climbed the steps on to the “No Malarkey” campaign bus. Joe Biden rose to greet me. “Where have I been? In South Carolina, that’s where!”We had seen all the candidates but him – Pete Buttigieg was practically a nextdoor neighbor. The week before, we had asked in a headline in our little country paper: “Where’s Joe?”Donald Trump had been impeached and was being tried in the Senate. The Iowa caucuses were a few weeks off. Former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, agriculture secretary in the Obama administration, rode shotgun while Biden held forth for a half-hour on fighting climate change through regenerative farming practices.“It all starts here. We can do anything if we put our minds to it,” Biden declared.And it all ends here. The former vice-president held a parking lot rally in Des Moines on the Friday before election day, his final call in a state he had worked since 1988 on his route to the White House but never quite won.When the February caucuses cleared, Biden was down in the pack. Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders were tied for first in a delayed result from a failed cellphone reporting app that may well have doomed Iowa’s half-century run as first-in-the-nation. Nevada is itching for pole position.Iowa’s role was to winnow the field. Biden nearly was winnowed here and, a week later, in New Hampshire. Essentially, a half-dozen Democrats had their tickets punched out of Iowa from a field of 25. Mike Bloomberg had his own strategy, bypassing the first states with his bet on Super Tuesday. He could not bypass Elizabeth Warren, who ripped him to shreds in one of the final debates.And Biden had done his work in South Carolina.There, black voters rose up to have their say: No gambling on a lefty. They wanted Safe Joe to bring it home. Representative Jim Clyburn, dean of South Carolina politics, touched Biden’s shoulder. That was that. Little did I know, that blustery day on the bus, how it would play out.Nor do I know this weekend before the election how this long, strange trip of the last four years will end.Iowa is in play after Trump won the state by nine percentage points in 2016. The 2018 midterms saw two women, Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer, defeat two incumbent Republican congressmen. Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican who did a brain meld with Trump in her first term, watched her popularity tank – from over 60% to underwater. Ernst narrowly trails Democrat Theresa Greenfield in most polls. Democrats swamped her in fundraising. Biden holds a slight lead over Trump, who can’t afford TV ads in Iowa.Next door, in Wisconsin, Biden has a healthy margin. Trump thinks he can take Minnesota, but it appears he is down by double digits. It’s grim for the president in Michigan, as well. The upper midwest has figured out that trade wars and picking fights with your friends can suck the life out of agriculture and manufacturing. Iowa and Wisconsin are among the most export-sensitive states in the nation.And, as people honked in their cars in the Des Moines parking lot listening to Biden over their FM radios, Iowa set a weekly record for Covid hospitalizations. It’s as bad in Wisconsin, which Biden also hit on Friday along with Minnesota. Despite the danger, people are lining up for early voting from north to south, masked up and resolute for what surely will be a record turnout.In my corner of Iowa, our county auditor expects a smooth and safe election with results by 10pm. Iowa is your early swing-state bellwether. If Trump loses Iowa or Ohio, he loses the presidency. Each is currently a dead heat. Who would have thought that four years ago – or even two years ago, when candidate John Delaney first crossed our threshold by helping shovel snow from our front door after a blizzard?We’re worn out from the countless cafe campaign appearances, and rancorous debates, and this damned pandemic, and the stream of lies from a corrupter in chief. A record number turned out for the primaries – in Storm Lake, young Latinos caucused for Sanders in droves. They protested in the park for Black Lives last summer, and the police knelt right along. On Labor Day there was a big boat parade for Trump. His flags fly along those blacktops where the Biden bus ran. $60bn in trade and disaster subsidies to agriculture washed over those fields the past two years. We were wiped out by floods in 2019 and a freak wind storm in 2020 while California and Colorado burned.We take note and vote. It all comes down to a few states like Iowa and Wisconsin, where Biden aims to seal that victory at long last.Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times in north-west Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing. He is a Guardian US columnist and author of the book Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope from America’s Heartland More

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    Trump lead in Iowa poll rattles Democrats – but Biden still leads nationally

    Candidates compete for Iowa but other states offer big prizesScholars warn of collapse of democracy as election loomsUS politics – live coverageWhile Joe Biden is handily beating Donald Trump in national polls, two days out from election day, a new poll from Iowa on Saturday night showed the president up by seven points. Related: Joe Biden: from a campaign that almost collapsed to fighting Trump for the presidency Continue reading… More

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    US election roundup: Trump and Biden swing through battleground states

    The two US presidential candidates swung through northern battleground states on Friday amid signs that the coronavirus pandemic was once more threatening to overcome hospital capacity in several US regions.
    Donald Trump was due to hold a succession of airport rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while Joe Biden was scheduled to have drive-in rallies in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
    The trip to Minnesota marked a rare defensive move for the Democratic challenger, who held a low double-digit lead in new polls published with four days left of the election campaign. Hillary Clinton narrowly held Minnesota in 2016 and the latest polls show Biden with a five-point margin.
    But he told reporters: “I don’t take anything for granted. We’re going to work for every single vote up until the last minute.”
    The president insisted the state was vulnerable.
    “I think it’s going to flip for the first time since 1972,” he said, claiming he had stopped rioting there following the police killing of George Floyd in May, which sparked the Black Lives Matter protests.
    Before setting out from Washington on Friday morning, Trump railed against the supreme court for ruling to allow election officials in North Carolina to accept votes received by 12 November as long as they are postmarked by 3 November.
    “This decision is CRAZY and so bad for our Country. Can you imagine what will happen during that nine day period,” Trump said on Twitter.
    He has been similarly critical of a parallel supreme court decision this week to allow Pennsylvania to extend its count. His new appointee to the court, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, did not take part in the decisions as, according to the court, she had not had time to review the arguments.
    Behind in the polls, the Republicans have put significant effort in campaign endgame focusing on procedural and legal attempts to suppress the turnout or the vote count. Trump has said he wants a result on 3 November, but by law states have until 8 December to finalise their returns. More

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    Australians ask me what the mood is in the US. I say optimism, quickly smothered by dread | Chloe Angyal

    In Iowa, lawn signs keep vanishing. They’ll be there in the front garden one night, red white and blue against the unnaturally lush suburban American green grass, advertising to drivers and dog walkers alike that the people inside want Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. “Joe 2020.” “Unity over division, Biden-Harris 2020.” “Bye-Don.” And the next morning, they’re gone. One man got caught stealing a sign, and then got caught stealing the newspapers reporting what he’d done. (Trump signs have been stolen and vandalised too).
    Iowa, where the presidential primaries began with the shambolic caucuses in February, has become one of the most expensive electoral battlegrounds in the nation. In 2016, the state went for Trump by a massive 10 points after voting for Obama by two in 2012; the 12-point swing was the largest of any state in the nation. Now, the swing state is living up to that label: FiveThirtyEight has Biden slightly ahead. But it’s not only the presidential race on the line: the incumbent Republican senator Joni Ernst is neck-and-neck with her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, who has raked in a staggering amount of money – $28.7m in the third quarter of this year alone – to try to flip one of Iowa’s two red Senate seats to blue.
    This is my fourth presidential election in the US, but my first in Iowa. I grew up in Australia, and moved to this state two years ago after living in New York City for a decade, because my partner, an Iowan, ran for office here.
    The vanishing lawn signs, of course, are not the only dirty trick we’ve seen this year: Republicans have done everything in their power to make voting harder for people who likely won’t vote for them, from closing ballot drop locations to reimposing felon disenfranchisement to knee-capping the postal service.
    I voted early and in person, waiting for half an hour in a socially distanced line at the local library. That’s nothing compared with the hours-long wait other voters have endured, but still a tax in the form of time, and in the middle of a pandemic in which Iowa is faring absolutely terribly, a risk voters shouldn’t have to take to get their ballot counted.
    By now it has become a cliche to compare America’s voting system – a state-by-state patchwork of time-consuming and easily-screwed up registration procedures, followed by deliberately limited in-person voting options – to Australia’s. Similarly, it has become a threadbare exercise in horror to compare how the US has responded to coronavirus with how Australia has. When I returned home to see my family in July, I was required to spend two weeks in a hotel room in Sydney and was regularly tested for coronavirus during my quarantine. Six weeks later, when I flew back to Iowa, there was nothing to stop me from driving from the airport to my local supermarket, mask-free, and breathing all over my fellow Iowans.
    To date, more than 120,000 people in Iowa have contracted coronavirus, and 1,693 of them have died. The population of Iowa, where a Republican governor never issued a stay-at-home order and has pushed the state to a full re-opening even as case numbers continue to rise, is 3.1 million. Australia, with its population of 25 million, has seen 27,569 cases to date, 907 of them fatal.
    Cliches or no, it is hard to avoid making these comparisons as election day hurtles towards us. Because they are not simply thought experiments, they’re questions about life and death, and about who and what government is for. What would this country look like if it invested in the infrastructure of a truly representative democracy, as Australia has? Would the officials elected under such a system have taken the threat of the pandemic seriously, rather than allowing partisanship to warp their understanding of not just science but of what sacrifices we owe to each other?
    Just as it was hard to explain to Americans how stringent Australia’s policies for returnees were, it has been hard to explain to Australians what the mood is here as the election approaches. After four years under Trump’s Republican party – four years of obscene policies meant to harm the most vulnerable, four years of testing and in some cases breaking the institutional guard rails of American democracy – and eight months of coronavirus, the mood is sheer anxiety. The mood is utter exhaustion.
    The mood is optimism quickly smothered by fear and dread. This time in 2016, the polls predicted a Trump loss, but voter suppression and Russian interference kept just enough people from voting in crucial states to swing the election Trump’s way.
    The mood, for me and many of my fellow journalists, is disassociation and numbness, coping mechanisms we learned a long time ago are essential for doing the work of covering the horrors and incompetencies of this administration.
    The mood is anticipation of relief, mingled with the knowledge that relief might not come, that it all might go wrong, and that the election, like our lawn signs, might once again be stolen from us.
    • Chloe Angyal is a contributing editor at marieclaire.com and the author of the forthcoming book Turning Pointe: How a New Generation of Dancers Is Saving Ballet From Itself. She is from Sydney and lives in the Iowa City area More

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    Feeling down about the state of America? Me too. But good news may be coming | Art Cullen

    Leaves fall, blue turns to gray, snow covers the ground, and I should not write bad poetry. These are things you think when you go to the doctor at my age (63) to get blood drawn. It’s enough to give you a temporary hypertensive alarm. I was presented with a mental health survey to complete while waiting for results, where I intimated that I may be a desperate man.Irritable? Every day. Forlorn at least half the time. Sometimes close to despondent.Living in the US has been a real drag lately. A maniac, or at least a narcissistic oaf, occupies the Oval Office. Armed men in Hawaiian shirts threaten to subvert civil order. Not wearing a face mask is considered around some parts a sign of machismo. The number of Covid cases has been rising nonstop, and assaults on our democratic institutions are relentless. “Lock them all up!” Donald Trump bellows to the sheep.It’s these kinds of things that apparently drove former first lady Michelle Obama to admit that she feels a little down.My doctor sympathized. After all, she bears the burden, day after day, of treating people with bad coughs, bad attitudes and worse.She told me her mom is sort of conservative from a small town and her dad is sort of liberal from a college town so she is sort of moderate and shares my concerns. Can’t we just all get along as her parents did? What has happened to us?I took a rain check on antidepressants. They have seen survey scores far worse than mine. Plus, relief may be around the corner.In just two weeks, my heart and the bookies in England say that Joe Biden will be elected president – a 90% chance, according to the number-crunchers who follow the horses. The polls tend to back it up. Biden has a slight lead in Iowa and Ohio, and healthy advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin. Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, who has been among Trump’s craven enablers, is in serious trouble what with not knowing the price of soybeans during her most recent debate.Everything I was taught in school about America has been turned on its headTrump has undermined the rule of law, sold out our national security interests, and conducted his affairs as if it were a Viking orgy. Everything I was taught in school about America has been turned on its head.But look at the huge turnouts already in Atlanta and Houston – people of color, in particular, are lining up to vote across America following a summer of peaceful protests. In part, the lines are long because Republican governors are trying to make voting difficult. Yet voters persist. Nobody will deny them their franchise this year, and Black women in particular are not taking it for granted. God bless them. Trump is down in the polls by seven points in Georgia, the kind of Democratic edge not seen in that state since Jimmy Carter’s days.We can wrestle this virus to the mat with a coherent strategy. People are coming around to it. Biden offers people a way to put down their political defenses, to wear a face mask without losing face. His primary call is for national unity and rebuilding America, not a civil war. Voters yearn to turn their swords into plowshares.The doctor hopes that we will have an effective vaccine in hand by summer. She, too, prays for an end to government by chaos. After sitting alone wondering if it is just you thinking this way, it was good to hear the woman behind the PPE telling me I am not that crazy, and that I should live long enough to see this rascal run off from the Rose Garden. America taking back its democracy is a sure cure to what’s ailing me and most of us.Legendary Watergate reporter Bob Woodward will discuss the Trump presidency at a Guardian Live online event on Tuesday 27 October, 7pm GMT. Book tickets here
    Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times in north-west Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing. He is a Guardian US columnist and author of the book Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope in America’s Heartland More

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    Covid cases could surge in battleground midwest during Labor Day holiday

    As health officials warned that gatherings on the upcoming Labor Day holiday weekend in the United States could fuel the spread of coronavirus, political observers are closely watching attitudes about the virus in the midwest, where Donald Trump and Joe Biden are locked in a struggle that could decide the presidential election.Two new national polls published on Wednesday found that Trump retained the support of 40%-41% of voters – within the narrow band of support he has held since he took office, even as the confirmed death toll from Covid-19 in the United States approaches 200,000.One of the polls, for Grinnell College by the highly reputed Selzer & Company, found that Trump enjoys a 49-45 lead over Biden among voters ages 55 and older – precisely the group most vulnerable to serious complications or death from coronavirus.But in midwestern states such as Iowa and Minnesota, in particular, new warnings about coronavirus are being sounded just as the presidential election enters its final weeks and absentee voting begins.“We cannot afford to have this Labor Day weekend further accelerate the community spread, because if that happens, what comes next is going to be worse,” Jan Malcolm, the Minnesota health commissioner, told local MPR News on Monday. “For a while now, we feel we’ve been kind of walking on the edge of a cliff.”A White House coronavirus taskforce sent Iowa health officials a report this week warning that the state has the highest rate of cases in the United States, according to the Des Moines Register.The state has recorded just over 1,000 deaths from Covid-19, and the more than 65,000 confirmed cases have disproportionately affected communities tied to regional packing plants.Biden was scheduled to speak on Wednesday about Trump’s handling of the pandemic, and on Thursday the former vice-president planned to hold a community meeting in Kenosha, Wisconsin, the site of protests after the shooting of Jacob Blake by a white police officer last month. More