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Republicans Have Made It Very Clear What They Want to Do if They Win Congress
What Republicans are offering, if they win the 2022 election, is not conservatism. It is crisis. More accurately, it is crises. A debt-ceiling crisis. An election crisis. And a body blow to the government’s efforts to prepare for a slew of other crises we know are coming.That is not to say there aren’t bills House Republicans would like to pass. There are. The closest thing to an agenda that congressional Republicans have released is the House Republican Study Committee’s 122-page budget. The study committee is meant to be something akin to an internal think tank for House Republicans. It counts well over half of House Republicans as members, and includes Representatives Steve Scalise, Elise Stefanik and Gary Palmer — all the leaders save for Kevin McCarthy.After spending some time with the document, what I’d say is that it lacks even the pretense of prioritization, preferring instead the comforts of quantity. It lists bill after bill that House Republicans would like to pass. Legislation that would upend the structure and powers of the government, like the bill sponsored by Representative Byron Donalds that seeks to abolish the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, gets exactly the same treatment as Representative Bob Good’s bill to force schools to release their correspondence with teachers’ unions about when to reopen, or Representative Michael Cloud’s resolution disapproving of vaccinating 11-year-olds in Washington, D.C. There are plans to privatize much of Medicare and repeal much of Obamacare and to raise the Social Security age and no fewer than eight bills attacking Critical Race Theory.But even if Republicans win the House and Senate, they cannot pass this agenda. It would fall to President Biden’s veto. What Republicans could do is trigger crises they hope would give them leverage to force Biden to accept this agenda or perhaps force him out of office. And even where Republican leadership does not actually believe that crisis would win them the day, they may have to trigger it anyway to prove their commitment to the cause or to avoid the wrath of Donald Trump.Start with the debt ceiling. U.S. Treasuries are the bedrock asset of the global financial system. They are the safest of safe investments, the security that countries and funds buy when they must be absolutely sure that their money is safe. Much else in the financial system is priced on this assumption of American reliability: Lenders begin with the “riskless rate of return” — that is, the interest rate on U.S. treasuries — and then add their premiums atop that. If the U.S. government defaults on its own debt, it would trigger financial chaos. (I guess that’s one way to deal with inflation: Crash the global economy!)Republicans have been perfectly clear, though: They see the debt limit as leverage in negotiations with Biden. “We’ll provide you more money, but you got to change your current behavior,” Kevin McCarthy, the Republican minority leader and potential Speaker of the House, told Punchbowl News. “We’re not just going to keep lifting your credit card limit, right?”McCarthy may sound measured, but that he would open the door to this tactic at all either shows his weakness or his recklessness. A hostage is leverage only if you’re willing to shoot. And there will be plenty of voices demanding that Republicans pull the trigger or at least prove their willingness to do so.One of those voices will be Trump’s. “It’s crazy what’s happening with this debt ceiling,” the former president recently told a conservative radio host. “Mitch McConnell keeps allowing it to happen. I mean, they ought to impeach Mitch McConnell if he allows that.”To put it gently, the record of Republican Party leaders resisting the demands of their party’s hard-liners, even when they think those demands are mad, is not inspiring. McConnell and the former Republican Speaker John Boehner didn’t have enough command of their members to reject Ted Cruz’s doomed 2013 shutdown over the Affordable Care Act, which both of them thought to be lunacy. And Cruz’s influence with the Republican base and the G.O.P.’s congressional caucus in 2013 was nothing compared with the power Trump now wields.That’s not the only looming crisis. At this point, much is known about the myriad attempts Trump and his backers made to subvert the result of the 2020 election. The country’s saving grace was that there was little preparation behind that effort, and Republicans in key positions — to say nothing of Democrats — proved hostile to the project. But as The Times reported in October, more than 370 Republicans running for office in 2022 have said they doubt the results of the last election, and “hundreds of these candidates are favored to win their races.”The 2022 election is very likely to sweep into power hundreds of Republicans committed to making sure that the 2024 election goes their way, no matter how the vote tally turns out. Hardly anything has been done to fortify the system against chicanery since Jan. 6. What if congressional Republicans refuse to certify the results in key states, as a majority of House Republicans did in 2020? What if, when Trump calls Republican Secretaries of State or governors or board of elections supervisors in 2024, demanding they find the votes he wishes he had or disqualify the votes his opponent does have, they try harder to comply? The possibilities for crisis abound.Here, too, Republican officeholders who don’t fully buy into Trumpist conspiracy theories may find themselves rationalizing compliance. This is a movie we have already watched. Most of the House Republicans who voted against certification of the 2020 election knew Trump’s claims were absurd. But they chose to hide behind Representative Mike Johnson’s bizarre, evasive rationale for voting as Trump demanded they vote without needing to embrace the things he said. Johnson’s solution was to suggest that pandemic-era changes to voting procedures were unconstitutional, thus rendering the results uncertifiable. It was nonsense, and worse than that, it was cowardice. But it’s a reminder that the problem is not merely the Republican officeholders who would force an electoral crisis. The enabling threat is the much larger mass of their colleagues who have already proven they will do nothing to object.Not all crises begin with a political showdown. Some could come from a virus mutating toward greater lethality. Some could come from a planet warming outsides the narrow band that has fostered human civilization. Some could come from the expansionary ambitions of dictators and autocrats. The past few years have brought vivid examples of all three. But particularly over the past year, the Republican Party has shown itself to be somewhere between dismissive of — and hostile toward — the preparations and responses these possible crises demand.Last week, I criticized the Biden administration for failing to find a party-line path to financing pandemic preparedness. But such a path was only necessary because the Republican Party has swung so hard against efforts to prepare for the next pandemic. The Republican Study Committee’s budget is a vivid example of where the party has gone on Covid. It is not that Republicans are pro-Covid. But the party’s energy is very much anti-anti-Covid. It includes policy after policy attacking vaccine mandates, emergency powers and vaccinations for children. But in its 100-plus pages I could find nothing proposing ways to make sure we are better prepared for the next viral threat.It is easy to imagine what such policies might be: The government was slow to authorize certain new treatments and tests, cumbersome in its efforts to dole out money for research, and not nearly as innovative as it could have been in deploying technology to monitor new and emerging diseases. This is a libertarian, not a liberal, critique of government. But the study committee’s budget offers no discussion of how deregulation might foster a better response next time.And it’s not just Covid. Republicans have long been skeptical of efforts to prepare for climate change. The study committee’s budget is thick with plans to goose fossil fuel extraction and bar federal dollars from supporting the Paris Climate Accords. Republicans have been, shall we say, divided in their affections for Vladimir Putin, but at least in the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many backed efforts to support Ukraine. But McCarthy has suggested that Republicans will cut aid to Ukraine if they win in November, and he’s far from alone in wanting to see the United States back off from the conflict.I’ll say this for Republicans. They have not hidden their intentions, nor their tactics. They have made clear what they intend to do if they win. Biden ran — and won — in 2020 promising a return to normalcy. Republicans are running in 2022 promising a return to calamity.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More
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How Republicans Learned to Love Herschel Walker
Follow our live coverage of Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock’s debate in Georgia.Since Herschel Walker launched his bid for Senate last year, Georgia voters have learned about his ex-wife’s allegations of domestic violence, his multiple children born out of wedlock and, most recently, assertions from a former girlfriend that he paid for one abortion and urged her to end a second pregnancy, while claiming to oppose abortion.Mr. Walker, a former football star and first-time candidate, has denied the latest claim and expressed shock about what he has cast as a stunning partisan broadside. But some Republicans close to him were hardly surprised: They had been discussing the arrival of this moment with the candidate for months.Mr. Walker’s team was braced to defend him against accusations that he threatened his ex-wife, a claim that’s been public for years. But some advisers also knew about the specific abortion claim made by the mother of one of Mr. Walker’s children, according to two people familiar with the conversations. Those who knew said they warned Mr. Walker to prepare for the possibility that those details would become fodder in a political campaign, but Mr. Walker refused.The issue mostly frustrated him, these people said. Mr. Walker privately denied the abortion, but instead of discussing a strategy to handle the claim, he maintained that the details would never become public. At times he would argue that if his ex-girlfriend’s account did leak out, it would not be believed because he had a child with the woman, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.The Walker campaign declined to comment.Now, as he prepares on Friday to debate his Democratic opponent for the first time, the party is reckoning with the reality of a political gamble Republicans in Georgia and Washington made months ago. In the face of former President Donald J. Trump’s backing and Mr. Walker’s star power, Republican leaders, led by Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, deemed resistance to Mr. Walker futile.In a race that could determine control of the Senate, they chose short-term political expediency over confrontation with Mr. Trump or his chosen candidate.The Georgia Senate race serves as an allegory of Trump-era Republicanism: Old-guard party leaders did not so much lead their voters as follow them; the evangelical wing was quick to compromise; Mr. Trump rewrote the conventional rules; and celebrity substituted for experience.“The most rational-minded folks were wanting to pump the brakes on what felt like a runaway train,” said Geoff Duncan, the Republican lieutenant governor of Georgia, who was referring to Mr. Walker’s campaign. “Republicans were perfectly happy winning the first half of the football game, in the primary, and not paying any attention to the second half, which is the general.”Mr. Duncan, a Trump critic, said he wouldn’t vote for Senator Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, but was not yet sure if he would support Mr. Walker.The race remains a tossup; polls show Mr. Walker’s support dipping slightly, but in a tight race that could make the difference. Party leaders have stood by him. He continues to evince the brash confidence of a star athlete.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Arizona’s Governor’s Race: Democrats are openly expressing their alarm that Katie Hobbs, the party’s nominee for governor in the state, is fumbling a chance to defeat Kari Lake in one of the most closely watched races.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but members of his party have learned to tolerate his behavior.“They don’t realize that they’ve woken a grizzly bear,” Mr. Walker told Fox News aboard his campaign bus this week. “I’ve won at everything I’ve set my mind to.”The Republican has frequently mentioned his mental health issues — he has been diagnosed with disassociative identity disorder, he said. He has not denied the domestic violence allegations and has suggested the disorder is to blame for previous outbursts and erratic behavior. He describes himself as a once-troubled man “saved by grace.” Democrats have said Mr. Walker has “a pattern of lying” and is not qualified to serve. The race could turn on which version of Mr. Walker voters believe.“There are always risks with first-time candidates,” said David Shafer, the chairman of the Georgia Republican Party. “But potential reward never comes without risk.”A Personal ConnectionFrom the beginning, Mr. Trump wanted Mr. Walker in the race. Mr. Walker’s hero status in Georgia, where he won the Heisman Trophy and a national championship for the University of Georgia, made him just the sort of celebrity candidate Mr. Trump likes to promote. As a Black Republican, he was a step toward diversifying the overwhelmingly white party.But the draw was hardly just political. The two men have known each other for decades, and — just as he’s done for White House jobs and other political endorsements — Mr. Trump let his personal connection override any background checks and other research typically involved in such high-profile job searches.Mr. Walker grew close to Mr. Trump when he was a young athlete who had left college early to sign the richest contract in pro football with the New Jersey Generals franchise in the United States Football League in 1983. Mr. Trump purchased the team months later.Donald J. Trump and Herschel Walker, after Walker signed a contract with the New Jersey Generals of the United States Football League.Dave Pickoff/Associated PressMr. Walker became something of a surrogate uncle to Mr. Trump’s children, who often spent stretches of their summers with him. Eric Trump, and his brother, Donald Trump Jr. — whom Mr. Walker occasionally calls “Little Donald” — have spoken warmly to associates about trips with Mr. Walker to Disney World..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.When Mr. Walker talks about his connection to Mr. Trump he emphasizes their friendship. “He’s eaten at my home,” Mr. Walker said in a May interview with Revolt.TV. “I’ve eaten at his home. My family has eaten at his home.”Mr. Trump was even more effusive when Mr. Walker appeared as a contestant on Mr. Trump’s reality television program. “I am not a gay man — and I love you,” Mr. Trump told Mr. Walker when booting him off the Celebrity Apprentice. ‘The World Is Changing’As he was preparing to announce his campaign last year, Mr. Walker bristled when friends and advisers tried to ask about his past, refusing even in private to take responsibility for his actions, according to Republicans who have been close to Mr. Walker. He grew frustrated with direct questions and raised doubts about the loyalty of his own team. One Republican strategist whom Mr. Walker spoke with last year said that Mr. Walker kept repeating how easy the race was going to be.Christian Walker, Mr. Walker’s son, says he knew his father’s past would be difficult for the family and counseled him not to run, although he did not know about the abortion issue.“I absolutely tried my best to attempt to get him prepared,” Christian Walker said in an email to The Times. “The best way forward was honesty. That clearly didn’t happen.”(Mr. Walker has repeatedly said that he loves Christian, though he appears to have grown frustrated as Democrats seize on his son’s public criticism. “I hope they’re paying him,” Mr. Walker said this week, “because I’ve been paying his rent for a long time.”)Mr. Walker had reason to be optimistic about his bid. Internal polling showed that he enjoyed an approval rating of higher than 90 percent among Georgia Republicans. The combination of his local star power and vocal support of Mr. Trump made him virtually untouchable in a Republican primary.People lining up to take a photo with Herschel Walker at a recent campaign event.Nicole Craine for The New York Times“If your name is Herschel Walker, and you’re a pro-life conservative, with his name ID, celebrity and impressive fund-raising ability, the primary was over the day he entered the race,” Ralph Reed, chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition and a former state party chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, said.Mr. Trump, too, was unconcerned with Mr. Walker’s past. “Twenty years ago would’ve been a bigger problem. I don’t think it’s a problem today,” he said in September 2021, according to “Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America” by Maggie Haberman, a Times reporter.Asked to explain, the former president — who was recorded bragging about groping women, accused of sexual assault and twice impeached — said: “Because the world is changing.”A Fleeting ResistanceMr. McConnell, the second most powerful man in Republican politics, had other ideas about who should run.From the moment two runoff losses in Georgia cost Republicans their Senate majority in January 2021, the state was at the center of Mr. McConnell’s plan to wrest back control in 2022. Even before Senator David Perdue of Georgia had publicly conceded defeat, Mr. McConnell asked him to consider running again this year, according to a person briefed on the conversation.But Mr. Perdue didn’t entertain the idea for long. In February, he flew to Florida for a visit and a round of golf with Mr. Trump. Within days, Mr. Perdue announced he would not be running and soon after Mr. Trump publicly urged in a statement, “Run Herschel, run!”Mr. McConnell did not take no for an answer.Over the summer, news stories began to reveal new details about accusations that Mr. Walker repeatedly threatened his ex-wife’s life, exaggerated claims of financial success and alarmed business associates with unpredictable behavior. (Notably, Mr. McConnell’s longtime political adviser, Josh Holmes, shared on Twitter one Associated Press article, calling it “about as comprehensive a takedown as I’ve ever read. My lord.”)Days earlier, Mr. McConnell met with Mr. Perdue at the Capitol, checking if the former senator’s decision not to run was still in effect. It was. Mr. Walker officially entered the race in August, and the two men were soon speaking frequently. Mr. McConnell grew more comfortable as Mr. Walker was solicitous of his advice, according to two people briefed on the calls. Within two months, he had formally endorsed Mr. Walker.In embracing Mr. Walker, Mr. McConnell accepted a candidate who, from the start, was sure to make the race about the Republican nominee instead of the Democratic one — anathema to his preferred strategy. By the spring of 2022, Mr. McConnell was publicly defending Mr. Walker’s tumultuous past.“Almost every candidate has had troubled periods,” Mr. McConnell said in an April interview with Axios, when asked about his ex-wife’s allegations of violence. He cut off further questions: “I think Walker is completely electable.”Mr. Walker qualified to run for the Senate at the Georgia State Capitol in March.Ben Gray/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, via Associated PressOthers still disagreed. Georgia’s straight-talking agriculture commissioner, Gary Black, got into the primary race a few months before Mr. Walker. As momentum for his opponent grew, Mr. Black insisted his party was about to cede the advantage.Mr. Walker, he argued, was a political novice with a turbulent history who wouldn’t be able to make the race about the Democrats.“If Herschel Walker is the nominee,” Mr. Black warned in an interview days before the primary, “this race will be about Herschel Walker.”Mr. Black’s team made its case to National Republican Senatorial Committee officials in the fall of 2021, showing a video of Mr. Walker’s ex-wife speaking about the time he held a gun to her temple and threatened to shoot. Party officials made them turn it off; the meeting was supposed to be about general election strategy, one official said.The same clip has been aired repeatedly by Democrats.Lisa Lerer More
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The top Senate G.O.P. super PAC raised $111 million in the third quarter.
The leading super PAC for Senate Republicans, the Senate Leadership Fund, raised an average of more than $1 million every day in the third quarter, bringing in $111 million, a huge infusion of funds that is already being used to pummel Democratic candidates on the airwaves in more than a half-dozen key Senate races.The financial windfall, shared first with The New York Times, nearly doubled the total amount of money previously raised by the group during this midterm cycle, which began last year. The super PAC, which is closely aligned with Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, will report on its next Federal Election Commission filing, which is due Saturday, that it has raised $221.4 million to date in the 2022 cycle.“Our donors are fired up about slamming the brakes on Joe Biden’s disastrous left-wing agenda,” Steven Law, the former chief of staff to Mr. McConnell who runs the super PAC, said in a statement. “We are hammering Democrats on inflation, gas prices, taxes and crime.”In Senate battleground states, the group’s ads have been hard to avoid.Federal records show the super PAC has already spent $148 million, as of Wednesday, to influence Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Ohio.The group canceled an ad reservation in Arizona, where the Republican Blake Masters is challenging Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat, but Axios reported on Wednesday that the group was in discussions with Peter Thiel, the billionaire venture capitalist, about splitting the cost of returning to the airwaves there.The Senate Leadership Fund has spent roughly double the amount as the leading Democratic super PAC devoted to Senate races, known as the Senate Majority PAC, but Democratic candidates in almost every key contest have out-raised Republican candidates.The Republican super PAC declined to discuss who its biggest donors were in recent months, other than to say it received a $20 million transfer from an affiliated nonprofit group, One Nation, which does not disclose its contributors.Through June, the super PAC’s two biggest disclosed contributors had been two Wall Street chief executives: Stephen A. Schwarzman of Blackstone and Kenneth Griffin of Citadel. Each had given $10 million. More
