More stories

  • in

    Pakistan-Iran strikes latest: At least 9 dead as Islamabad hits back following missile attack from Tehran

    For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsPakistan has launched missiles into Iran, killing at least nine people, in retaliation for Iran airstrikes inside Pakistan earlier this week. The move has heightened fears of instability spreading across the Middle East in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.Pakistan had warned Tehran that there would be “serious consequences” for Tuesday’s attack, which it said had killed at least two children in western Pakistan.Multiple blasts were heard in Iran’s southeastern province of Sistan-Balochistan on Thursday, according to state news agency IRNA. Four children were said to be among the dead.Pakistan’s foreign ministry said it had conducted airstrikes targeting Baloch separatist groups inside Iran, such as the Balochistan Liberation Front and the associated Baloch Liberation Army. Several missiles hit a border village, officials in Tehran said.The victims – three women, four children and two men – were all non-Iranian citizens and were killed near the town of Saravan, according to Ali Reza Marhamati, a deputy governor of the province. Pakistan’s foreign ministry said it had conducted a series of “highly coordinated” strikes in the Sistan-Balochistan province. It said: “A number of terrorists were killed during the intelligence-based operation.”Pakistan’s military described using “killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions and stand-off weapons” in the attack. Stand-off weapons are missiles fired from aircraft at a distance.On Tuesday, Iran carried out missile strikes on targets in Pakistan, saying they had hit two bases connected to the militant group Jaish al-Adl.Pakistan’s foreign office said the attack was an “illegal act” and condemned the “unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran” that it said had resulted in the deaths of two children and injured three girls. “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences,” a foreign office spokesperson said.Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister, Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar, cut short a trip to Davos to return to Pakistan, while acting foreign minister Jalil Abbas Jilani returned from a visit to Uganda.Iran strongly condemned the strikes and summoned Pakistan’s charge d’affaires to give an explanation. Pakistan had already withdrawn its ambassador over Tuesday’s attack.Mr Jilani “firmly underscored” in a telephone call with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, that Iran’s attack on Tuesday was not only a breach of sovereignty but also an “egregious violation of international law”.However, both sides appeared to signal a desire to keep the situation contained. Iran’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that it was committed to good neighbourly relations with Pakistan, but called on Islamabad to prevent the establishment of “terrorist bases” on its soil.Pakistan issued a similar statement, saying: “Pakistan fully respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The sole objective of today’s act was in pursuit of Pakistan’s own security and national interest, which is paramount and cannot be compromised.”In state media reports, which were later withdrawn without explanation, Iran said its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard had targeted bases used by the militant group Jaish al-Adl, or “Army of Justice”, in Pakistan on Tuesday. The group, which seeks an independent Balochistan and has spread across Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, acknowledged the missile strike in a statement shared online.Pakistan was the third country to be struck by Tehran this week after earlier attacks on targets in Iraq and Syria, in a move that has further escalated fears of a conflict spreading across the Middle East. The attacks were condemned by the United States, which accused Iran of violating the “sovereign borders of three of its neighbours in just the past couple of days”.Nations across the Middle East have been on edge since a Hamas attack inside Israel on 7 October that killed 1,200 people and saw more than 240 taken hostage. In response, Israel has vowed to eradicate Hamas and has launched airstrikes and ground operations inside Hamas-controlled Gaza, backed up by a blockade. Health officials in Gaza say more than 24,000 people have been killed in the three-month conflict.Hamas is backed by Iran, with Tehran also supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been engaging in near-daily exchanges of fire with Israeli forces on the Israel-Lebanon border, while the Houthis have been striking ships in the Red Sea, a vital route for global trade. The Houthis claim they are targeting Israel-bound ships, but have struck several US-owed vessels, sparking the creation of a multi-national force in the area, led by Washington, to protect shipping.The UK and the US have also struck several Houthi sites across Yemen with missiles to try to deter attacks. The latest US strikes took place place on Wednesday. Some 14 Houthi missiles, which the US says may have been intended for attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, were targeted by American forces.Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, told the Davos conference that there was an “empire of evil” emanating from Iran, which must be tackled by a very strong coalition. Mr Herzog said billions of dollars were being spent to destabilise the world as Iran funded proxies around the region to undermine any peace process.China, a crucial partner for both countries, has urged restraint. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning said: “China sincerely hopes that both sides can exercise calm and restraint and avoid escalation of tension.”India has backed Iran in its strikes on Pakistan, calling them an act of self-defence. India’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday: “Insofar as India is concerned, we have an uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism. We understand actions that countries take in their self-defence.” More

  • in

    Pakistan warns of consequences as Iran strikes kill children in latest spike in Middle East tensions – live

    Aerial footage shows moment RAF Typhoon strikes Yemen military targetFor free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsPakistan has vowed to respond to neighboring Iran after they hit a civilian region across the border in an unannounced attack.Iran launched airstrikes on Tuesday that Tehran claimed targeted bases for a militant Sunni separatist group.In state media reports, which were later withdrawn without explanation, Iran said its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard targeted bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl, or the “Army of Justice”. The group, which seeks an independent Baluchistan and has spread across Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, acknowledged the assault in a statement shared online.Islamabad, which has frosty relationships with Tehran, angrily denounced the attack as a “blatant violation” of its airspace and said it killed two children.Jan Achakzai, a spokesperson for the Baluchistan province, where the strike hit, also condemned the attack, and vowed to react.“Pakistan has always sought cooperation from all the countries of the region — including Iran — to combat terrorism,” he said. “This is unacceptable and Pakistan has a right to respond to any aggression committed against its sovereignty.”The attack threatens to escalate tensions in a region that has become increasingly unstable after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October.Show latest update
    1705501819Mapped: How the US and UK attacks on Houthi rebels took place and what weapons were used?Huge explosions were seen in Yemeni cities including Sana’a and Hodeidah in the early hours of 12 January, with the US military saying 60 strikes were launched against 16 sites linked to the Houthis’ military operations.Below, The Independent looks at how the attacks unfolded and what weapons were used in the strikes.Tom Watling17 January 2024 14:301705500019Here are some more details on the Iran strikes on Pakistan Officials in Pakistan‘s southwestern province of Balochistan, which borders Iran, have said that four missiles had hit the Panjgur district close to the Iranian border on Tuesday. “Four missiles were fired in the village of Koh-i-Sabaz which is around 50 km inside Pakistan soil,” a senior official of the Panjgur administration told Reuters.“A mosque and three houses were damaged in the attack,” another official said, adding that two young girls had been killed and three other family members injured.Tom Watling17 January 2024 14:001705498219Two Navy SEALs lost at sea were on mission targeting Houthi weapons shipment, says PentagonTwo US Navy SEALs were lost at sea on a mission targeting Iranian weapons deliveries to Houthis in Yemen, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.The night-time mission ended with the seizure of a small sailing boat that was transporting “advanced lethal aid” to the Yemeni rebel group as part of its “campaign of attacks against international merchant shipping,” the Pentagon said in a statement.The SEALs had been reported missing in the days following the mission, which took place on 11 January off the coast of Somalia, but its purpose had not been revealed. The two SEALs were still lost at sea as of Tuesday morning.Tom Watling17 January 2024 13:301705495519US national security adviser says stopping Houthi Red Sea attacks is an ‘all hands on deck’ problemA senior White House official said Tuesday that addressing the ongoing threat by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea is an “all hands on deck” problem that the U.S. and allies must address together to minimize impact on the global economy.“How long this goes on and how bad it gets comes down not just to the decisions of the countries in the coalition that took strikes last week,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said during an appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Tom Watling17 January 2024 12:451705492819Pope condemns Iran strike on Iraq, appeals against escalationPope Francis has condemned the Iranian missile attack on the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq, and urged all parties to avoid an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East.The strike has deepened worries about worsening instability across the Middle East since the war between Israel and Hamas broke out on Oct. 7, with Iran’s allies also entering the fray from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.“I express my closeness and solidarity with the victims, all civilians, of the missile attack that hit an urban area of Erbil, the capital of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan,” Francis said during his weekly audience at the Vatican.“Good relations between neighbours are not built with similar actions, but with dialogue and collaboration. I ask everyone to avoid any step that fuels tension in the Middle East and other war scenarios,” he added.Francis called for prayers for the “many victims of war”, mentioning specifically Ukraine, Gaza and other Palestinian territory, and Israel. More

  • in

    Yemen airstrikes – live: Missile hits vessel near Red Sea as terror attack reported in Israel

    Aerial footage shows moment RAF Typhoon strikes Yemen military targetFor free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsA vessel has reported being damaged by a missile as it sailed 95 miles southeast of Yemen’s port city of Aden.The UK Maritime Trade Operations says the master of the vessel claimed the boat was “hit from above by a missile”.It is unclear who is behind the strike but authorities have issued a warning to other boats in the Red Sea region.It came as a US fighter aircraft intercepted and destroyed an anti-ship cruise missile launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen towards the USS Laboon destroyer in the Red Sea, according to the US Central Command.The incident occurred off the coast of Hodeidah, a port city in the west of Yemen whose international airport was targeted in joint US-UK airstrikes last week.The UK joined the US-led operation in hitting more than 60 missile and drone targets in response to the group targeting ships in the Red Sea.But despite around 90 per cent of the targets being hit, two US officials warned on Sunday that the group retained about three-quarters of its ability to fire missiles and drones at vessels using the narrow strip of water.Lord Cameron warned that Britain could strike Houthi targets again if the rebel group continued to attack ships in the Red Sea.Show latest update
    1705329089Breaking: Vessel ‘hit by missile from above’ – master saysA vessel has reported being struck by a missile on its side as it sailed 95 miles southeast of Yemen’s port city of Aden.The UKMTO says that the captain of a boat has claimed his vessel was “hit from above by a missile”.So far it is not clear who is behind the strike but authorities are investigating.Other vessels are being urged to proceed with caution and report any suspicious activity.Barney Davis15 January 2024 14:311705328204Sunak must tell us if he plans more strikes against Houthis, says StarmerRishi Sunak should say if it is proposing further action against Houthi rebels and “set out the case for doing so”, Sir Keir Starmer has said.The Labour leader said the merits of more military intervention would have to be considered on a “case-by-case” basis.Speaking to broadcasters on a visit to north London, Sir Keir said Labour supports the action against Houthi, and accepted that sometimes when “urgent operational issues” arise it is “not possible” to have a vote in parliament.Sir Keir drew a distinction between urgent “one-off” operations and a “sustained campaign”, which he said would “require more process in parliament”. More

  • in

    Yemen airstrikes – live: US officials warn Houthi militia keep bulk of missile ability after major strikes

    Aerial footage shows moment RAF Typhoon strikes Yemen military targetFor free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsUS officials have issued a warning over the missile capability of the Houthi militia despite major airstrikes against nearly 30 locations on Thursday and Friday.The UK joined the US-led operation in hitting more than 60 missile and drone targets in response to the group targeting ships in the Red Sea.But despite around 90 per cent of the targets being hit, two US officials warned on Sunday that the group retained about three-quarters of its ability to fire missiles and drones at vessels using the narrow strip of water.Speaking on condition of anonymity, the New York Times reported that the two officials said only about 20 to 30 percent of the Houthis’ offensive capability had been destroyed.They said the difficulty was that much of the offensive weapons were on mobile platforms and could be moved or hidden.It comes as the Lord Cameron warned Britain could strike Houthi targets again if the rebel group continued to attack ship in the Red Sea.Suggesting that the Iran-linked militants could force up prices in Britain, he said that not acting would be accepting that Houthi attacks could “virtually shut a vital sea lane with relative impunity”.Show latest update
    1705243851Hezbollah sees all maritime navigation in danger after US strikes on YemenThe Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said on Sunday that the United States was wrong if it thought the Houthis of Yemen would stop confronting Israel in the Red Sea, saying U.S. actions there had endangered all maritime navigation.Describing U.S. and British strikes on Yemen as an act of stupidity, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Houthis would continue targeting ships belonging to Israel and going to its ports.“The more dangerous thing is what the Americans did in the Red Sea will harm all maritime navigation, even the ships that are not going to Palestine, even the ships which are not Israeli, even the ships that have nothing to do with the matter, because the sea has become a theatre of fighting, missiles, drones and war ships,” he said.“Security has been disrupted.”Maryam Zakir-Hussain14 January 2024 14:501705241100John Rentoul: Will war in the Middle East cast a shadow over a Starmer government?The shadow cabinet is more deeply divided than it appears. Labour is still subject to less media scrutiny than the Conservatives, despite the widespread assumption that Keir Starmer will become prime minister this year.Most Labour MPs are also more disciplined than most Tory MPs because they can feel election victory within their grasp, whereas the Tories are either fed up or have given up, and so are happier to be rude about each other in private and in public.As ever in politics, Labour’s divisions are a mixture of the personal and the ideological, and foreign policy is one of the hidden fractures threatening the foundations of an incoming government.Maryam Zakir-Hussain14 January 2024 14:051705239527Why are Britain and US attacking Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels?The attacks came after the Houthis launched their largest attack on Red Sea shipping, one of 27 such assaults since 19 November.Officials said that 21 missiles and drones were fired at warships and commercial vessels near the Bab al-Mandab Strait earlier this week, the southern bottleneck of the Red Sea, with US and UK warships blowing them out of the sky.Here is what we know so far:Maryam Zakir-Hussain14 January 2024 13:381705236961Germany to take part in EU Red Sea naval mission – legislatorGermany is expected to participate in a European Union naval mission to protect shipping in the Red Sea that EU foreign ministers will approve this month, the head of the German parliamentary defence committee said.Speaking at her party’s reception for the new year on Sunday, Maria-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann said the aim of the mission would be for EU frigates to protect commercial vessels passing through the strait.The approaches to the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, have been all but paralysed by attacks on passing vessels by Iran-backed Houthi forces on the Yemen coast.“This is an attack on free trade and has to be countered,” Strack-Zimmermann said. Newspaper Welt am Sonntag earlier reported that the German frigate Hessen would set sail for the Red Sea on Feb. 1.Parliament must approve any foreign deployment of Germany’s armed forces.Maryam Zakir-Hussain14 January 2024 12:561705235147RAF strikes not an escalation of war in the Middle East, Lord Cameron insistsLord Cameron has denied RAF strikes in Yemen will escalate the picture in the Middle East, as he warned the world faces a period of great peril.The Foreign Secretary insisted it was the Houthi rebels who had taken steps to escalate conflict in the region with their attacks on container ships passing through the Red Sea.The militant group, which backs Hamas, claims they have targeted ships with links to Israel.The Houthis’ actions have posed a threat to the flow of global trade, disrupting merchant vessels from passing through the sea to the Suez Canal, a route which serves 15% of world shipping.The Foreign Secretary denied that the UK had escalated the situation by taking part in US-led air strikes on Houthi military facilities across Yemen overnight on Thursday.He had previously warned the RAF could join the USA in further strikes against the Houthis in order to deter their attacks.“The escalation has been caused by the Houthis. I mean the point is since November 19, you have had these 26 attacks”, Lord Cameron told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg.He added: “There have been more of them, they have been getting worse, and you know, not acting is also a policy, it is a policy that doesn’t work.”Maryam Zakir-Hussain14 January 2024 12:251705234053Mapped: How the US and UK attacks on Houthi rebels took place and what weapons were used?Huge explosions were seen in Yemeni cities including Sana’a and Hodeidah in the early hours of Friday, with the US military saying 60 strikes were launched against 16 sites linked to the Houthis’ military operations.Below, The Independent looks at how the attacks unfolded and what weapons were used in the strikes.Maryam Zakir-Hussain14 January 2024 12:071705232329 More

  • in

    Houthi airstrikes live: US launches fresh missile strikes in Yemen to attack rebel radar site

    Aerial footage shows moment RAF Typhoon strikes Yemen military targetFor free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsThe US military struck another Houthi-controlled site in Yemen today after Joe Biden vowed to protect shipping in the Red Sea. US Central Command said the “follow-on action”, early on Saturday local time against a Houthi radar site, was conducted by the Navy destroyer USS Carney using Tomahawk land attack missiles.A Houthi official told Al Jazeera that no injuries resulted from today’s strikes by the US, and vowed a “strong and effective response”.The first day of strikes on Friday hit 28 locations and struck more than 60 targets.On Friday, a fresh missile attack on a Red Sea ship was reported after Houthi rebels warned that British interests were “legitimate targets” following the RAF and the US unleashing airstrikes.The overnight bombardment by US and UK warplanes, ships and submarines was launched in response to weeks of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the vital Red Sea.The US said the strikes, in two waves, took aim at targets in 28 different locations across Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.Show latest update
    1705156643UN envoy urges restraint over Yemen, region ‘increasingly precarious’The U.N. special envoy for Yemen on Saturday urged maximum restraint by all parties involved in Yemen and warned of an increasingly uncertain situation in the region.The envoy, Hans Grundberg, “notes with serious concern the increasingly precarious regional context, and its adverse impact on peace efforts in Yemen and stability and security in the region,” he said in a statement.Maryam Zakir-Hussain13 January 2024 14:371705154407Congresswoman says Biden is ‘violating Constitution’ with Yemen strikesCongresswoman Rashida Tlaib said Joe Biden is “violating Article I of the Constitution by carrying out airstrikes in Yemen without congressional approval” in a post on X. She added that Americans “are tired of endless war”. Maryam Zakir-Hussain13 January 2024 14:001705152607 More

  • in

    Yemen airstrikes latest: US launches more attacks against Houthi rebels

    Aerial footage shows moment RAF Typhoon strikes Yemen military targetFor free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsThe US has carried out a second round of airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, a day after American and British forces mounted their first attacks.Earlier on Friday, a fresh missile attack on a Red Sea ship was reported after Houthi rebels warned that British interests were “legitimate targets” following the RAF and the US unleashing airstrikes.The overnight bombardment by US and UK warplanes, ships and submarines was launched in response to weeks of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the vital Red Sea. The Houthis vowed fierce retaliation. Military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the strikes would “not go unanswered or unpunished”.And on Friday evening, the UK Maritime Trade Operations, which oversees Middle East waters, reported a new missile attack off Yemen.It said the missile was fired towards a ship 90 miles southeast of Aden, Yemen, but the ship reported no injuries or damage.A British maritime security firm said the militants had mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil.Show latest update
    1705113769US military strike another Houthi-controlled site after risk to Red Sea shipsThe US military early today struck another Houthi-controlled site in Yemen that they determined was putting commercial vessels in the Red Sea at risk.That is according to two US officials who spoke anonymously to the Associated Press to discuss an operation that had not yet been publicly announced. More

  • in

    ¿Qué le espera a la economía global en 2024?

    Con dos guerras persistentes y la incertidumbre de 50 elecciones nacionales, la inestabilidad financiera podría agravarse en todo el mundo.Los ataques al tráfico marítimo indispensable en los estrechos del mar Rojo por parte de una decidida banda de militantes en Yemen —una repercusión de la guerra entre Israel y Hamás en la franja de Gaza— le está inyectando otra dosis de inestabilidad a una economía mundial que está batallando con las tensiones geopolíticas en aumento.El riesgo de escalada del conflicto en Medio Oriente es la última de una serie de crisis impredecibles, como la pandemia del COVID-19 y la guerra en Ucrania, que han ocasionado profundas heridas a la economía mundial, la han desviado de su curso y le han dejado cicatrices.Por si fuera poco, hay más inestabilidad en el horizonte debido a la oleada de elecciones nacionales cuyas repercusiones podrían ser profundas y prolongadas. Más de dos mil millones de personas en unos 50 países —entre ellos India, Indonesia, México, Sudáfrica, Estados Unidos y los 27 países del Parlamento Europeo— acudirán a las urnas el año entrante. En total, los participantes en la olimpiada electoral de 2024 dan cuenta del 60 por ciento de la producción económica mundial.En las democracias sólidas, los comicios se están llevando a cabo en un momento en que va en aumento la desconfianza en el gobierno, los electores están muy divididos y hay una ansiedad profunda y constante por las perspectivas económicasUn barco cruza el canal de Suez en dirección al mar Rojo. Los ataques en el mar Rojo han hecho subir los fletes y los seguros.Mohamed Hossam/EPA, vía ShutterstockUna valla publicitaria anunciando las elecciones presidenciales en Rusia, que tendrán lugar en marzo.Dmitri Lovetsky/Associated PressWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

  • in

    Red Sea Shipping Halt Is Latest Risk to Global Economy

    Next year could see increasing volatility as persistent military conflicts and economic uncertainty influence voting in national elections across the globe.The attacks on crucial shipping traffic in the Red Sea straits by a determined band of militants in Yemen — a spillover from the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza — is injecting a new dose of instability into a world economy already struggling with mounting geopolitical tensions.The risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East is the latest in a string of unpredictable crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, that have landed like swipes of a bear claw on the global economy, smacking it off course and leaving scars.As if that weren’t enough, more volatility lies ahead in the form of a wave of national elections whose repercussions could be deep and long. More than two billion people in roughly 50 countries, including India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, the United States and the 27 nations of the European Parliament, will head to the polls. Altogether, participants in 2024’s elections olympiad account for 60 percent of the world’s economic output.In robust democracies, elections are taking place as mistrust in government is rising, electorates are bitterly divided and there is a profound and abiding anxiety over economic prospects.A ship crossing the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea. Attacks on the Red Sea have pushed up freight and insurance rates.Mohamed Hossam/EPA, via ShutterstockA billboard promoting presidential elections in Russia, which will take place in March.Dmitri Lovetsky/Associated PressEven in countries where elections are neither free nor fair, leaders are sensitive to the economy’s health. President Vladimir V. Putin’s decision this fall to require exporters to convert foreign currency into rubles was probably done with an eye on propping up the ruble and tamping down prices in the run-up to Russia’s presidential elections in March.The winners will determine crucial policy decisions affecting factory subsidies, tax breaks, technology transfers, the development of artificial intelligence, regulatory controls, trade barriers, investments, debt relief and the energy transition.A rash of electoral victories that carry angry populists into power could push governments toward tighter control of trade, foreign investment and immigration. Such policies, said Diane Coyle, a professor of public policy at the University of Cambridge, could tip the global economy into “a very different world than the one that we have been used to.”In many places, skepticism about globalization has been fueled by stagnant incomes, declining standards of living and growing inequality. Nonetheless, Ms. Coyle said, “a world of shrinking trade is a world of shrinking income.”And that raises the possibility of a “vicious cycle,” because the election of right-wing nationalists is likely to further weaken global growth and bruise economic fortunes, she warned.A campaign rally for former President Donald J. Trump in New Hampshire in December.Doug Mills/The New York TimesA line of migrants on their way to a Border Patrol processing center at the U.S.-Mexico border. Immigration will be a hot topic in upcoming elections.Rebecca Noble for The New York TimesMany economists have compared recent economic events to those of the 1970s, but the decade that Ms. Coyle said came to mind was the 1930s, when political upheavals and financial imbalances “played out into populism and declining trade and then extreme politics.”The biggest election next year is in India. Currently the world’s fastest-growing economy, it is jockeying to compete with China as the world’s manufacturing hub. Taiwan’s presidential election in January has the potential to ratchet up tensions between the United States and China. In Mexico, the vote will affect the government’s approach to energy and foreign investment. And a new president in Indonesia could shift policies on critical minerals like nickel.The U.S. presidential election, of course, will be the most significant by far for the world economy. The approaching contest is already affecting decision-making. Last week, Washington and Brussels agreed to suspend tariffs on European steel and aluminum and on American whiskey and motorcycles until after the election.The deal enables President Biden to appear to take a tough stance on trade deals as he battles for votes. Former President Donald J. Trump, the likely Republican candidate, has championed protectionist trade policies and proposed slapping a 10 percent tariff on all goods coming into the United States — a combative move that would inevitably lead other countries to retaliate.Mr. Trump, who has echoed authoritarian leaders, has also indicated that he would step back from America’s partnership with Europe, withdraw support for Ukraine and pursue a more confrontational stance toward China.Workers on a car assembly line in Hefei, China. Beijing has provided enormous incentives for electric vehicles.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesA shipyard in India, which is jockeying to compete with China as the world’s largest manufacturing hub.Atul Loke for The New York Times“The outcome of the elections could lead to far-reaching shifts in domestic and foreign policy issues, including on climate change, regulations and global alliances,” the consulting firm EY-Parthenon concluded in a recent report.Next year’s global economic outlook so far is mixed. Growth in most corners of the world remains slow, and dozens of developing countries are in danger of defaulting on their sovereign debts. On the positive side of the ledger, the rapid fall in inflation is nudging central bankers to reduce interest rates or at least halt their rise. Reduced borrowing costs are generally a spur to investment and home buying.As the world continues to fracture into uneasy alliances and rival blocs, security concerns are likely to loom even larger in economic decisions than they have so far.China, India and Turkey stepped up to buy Russian oil, gas and coal after Europe sharply reduced its purchases in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, tensions between China and the United States spurred Washington to respond to years of strong-handed industrial support from Beijing by providing enormous incentives for electric vehicles, semiconductors and other items deemed essential for national security.A protest in Yemen on Friday against the operation to safeguard trade and protect ships in the Red Sea.Osamah Yahya/EPA, via ShutterstockThe drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthi militia are a further sign of increasing fragmentation.In the last couple of months, there has been a rise in smaller players like Yemen, Hamas, Azerbaijan and Venezuela that are seeking to change the status quo, said Courtney Rickert McCaffrey, a geopolitical analyst at EY-Parthenon and an author of the recent report.“Even if these conflicts are smaller, they can still affect global supply chains in unexpected ways,” she said. “Geopolitical power is becoming more dispersed,” and that increases volatility.The Houthi assaults on vessels from around the world in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — the aptly named Gate of Grief — on the southern end of the Red Sea have pushed up freight and insurance rates and oil prices while diverting marine traffic to a much longer and costlier route around Africa.Last week, the United States said it would expand a military coalition to ensure the safety of ships passing through this commercial pathway, through which 12 percent of global trade passes. It is the biggest rerouting of worldwide trade since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the impact of the attacks had so far been limited. “From an economic perspective, we’re not seeing huge increase in oil and gas prices,” Mr. Vistesen said, although he acknowledged that the Red Sea assaults were the “most obvious near-term flashpoint.”Uncertainty does have a dampening effect on the economy, though. Businesses tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to investment, expansions and hiring.“Continuing volatility in geopolitical and geoeconomic relations between major economies is the biggest concern for chief risk officers in both the public and private sectors,” a midyear survey by the World Economic Forum found.With persistent military conflicts, increasing bouts of extreme weather and a slew of major elections ahead, it’s likely that 2024 will bring more of the same. More