Politics explained

During his gripping recent testimony to a Commons committee, Dominic Cummings shed a little light on the relationship between Britain and America. In a day of chaos when lockdown, the American bombing of Syria and a press story about the prime minister’s “girlfriend” and their dog vied for the attention of Boris Johnson, one outcome was that the British declined the US invitation to join in the air assault. In the past, during say the Thatcher or Blair premierships, joining in with such a limited but powerful symbolic action would have been almost automatic. But times are changing. “Special relationship” is, arguably, one of the most vexed and least useful expressions in the British political vocabulary. According to well-informed reports in The Atlantic, it seems that Boris Johnson is sceptical about its usage, and dislikes it because it makes Britain seem “needy and weak”, and pushed back on it when President Biden used it, no doubt thoughtfully, in an inaugural phone call to Downing Street in January. It might just be a sign that Johnson is attempting to make the best of what will never be a particularly warm friendship with the Biden administration, given the president’s public aversion to Brexit and devotion to the Good Friday Agreement. For the prime minister, it might also be simply a recognition that the “special relationship” has been, mostly, fetishised by a succession of British diplomats and politicians, but largely neglected or ignored in Washington. Sadly, that has largely been due to the long-term decline in Britain’s power and influence since the Second World War. Whether Brexit enhances or weakens the UK’s international status remains to be seen. It is, though, apparent that a UK-US free trade deal is as remote as ever. Despite his affinity with Brexit, Nigel Farage and Johnson, aka “Britain Trump”, Donald Trump’s trade policy was strictly America First and protectionist, and so is Joe Biden’s. When Barack Obama warned Britain it would be at the back of the queue for a trade deal if it voted for Brexit, he was merely stating the reality of the imbalance in the “special relationship”. Trade policy towards the UK has been more or less constant across the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, and owes little to sentiment. More

Will Boris Johnson have to reverse his cuts to foreign aid? The latest recruit to the rebel side is Theresa May, a famously loyal and cautious figure who, as a former premier, cannot have made such a decision lightly. She joins a (mostly) distinguished list of senior figures determined to side with the opposition parties to reverse the reduction in the overseas aid budget from 0.7 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Mitchell, Damien Green, Karen Bradley, Johnny Mercer and Stephen Crabb almost constitute a government-in-exile, and they seem sincere in their belief that the historic pledge made and delivered under the Tory governments of David Cameron and Ms May should be protected. They claim to have around 30 allies, which is almost enough to overturn the government’s majority. On the other hand, depending on their mood and developments on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the government might be able to rely on the eight DUP MPs for support. It might be tight, either way, come Monday.Much will also depend on the views of Speaker Hoyle. The unusual route being taken is an amendment to a bill on a quite different matter – the new hi-tech Advanced Research and Invention Agency. The rebels say the government acted unlawfully in changing the aid target without changing the law; ministers say they are allowed to suspend the target temporarily. In any case, there has not been a parliamentary vote on the matter. It is certainly a noble cause, but it is also aided by a certain amount, perhaps, of personal political rivalry and pique, for obvious reasons, plus some wider general disquiet about what might be termed the Johnson style of government. The recent rows over cronyism and sleaze, his flat refurbishment and Dominic Cummings’s insider account of the lazy and chaotic response to the Covid pandemic might not have bothered the public much, but will have registered with the MPs. There is the fear that a gradual accretion of sleazy stories will damage the party. However, for now, the Conservatives enjoy a lead over Labour of around 10 per cent, Mr Johnson mostly did well in the May elections, and he has some political credit back in the bank thanks to the “vaccine bounce”. It is also fair to add that the British electorate is not as sympathetic to foreign aid as the political classes tend to be. More

To much merriment, Tim Martin, chair of Wetherspoon and campaigner for a hard Brexit, now wants to make it easier for workers from the European Union to work in his ubiquitous pub chain of some 925 establishments. “If only there was some way of bringing this about” and “Tim Martin is going to be very annoyed with Tim Martin when he finds out” go the typically sardonic remarks on Twitter. Very droll, but at least a tad unfair. During the 2016 referendum, Martin actually did express the view that he thought EU labour should still be able to move more or less freely to the UK, and doesn’t seem to have had immigration as his principal motivation in seeing the UK leave the EU; but of course exiting the single market made the end of free movement of workers inevitable. So it has come to pass, and the loss of such labour is complicating the economic recovery from Covid, with the impact of the end of the furlough scheme yet to be felt. Certainly there will be a period of adjustment; and businesses such as Wetherspoon may face higher labour costs in future, which may mean lower profitability and/or higher prices. We shall see.Martin’s appeal, though, does serve to highlight two difficulties with the new post-Brexit points-based immigration system recently approved by Parliament. The first is that the general plot of the immigration policy is to attract the “best and the brightest”, skilled and professional workers, and people who will be earning at least around the average UK salary, and often much more. In fact the list of occupations eligible for a mainstream UK work visa is currently surprisingly broad – everything from medical radiographers to senior care workers to ballet dancers to vets to archaeologists. There seems little or no impediment to anyone from anywhere in the world, suitably qualified, to apply to come to the UK and work as a nurse, as any type of engineer or as any kind of “artist”, given certain salary expectations. All are classified as “shortage” occupations. There are also special routes for those, for example, nominated by a transnational company or bank, and those named by the likes of the Royal Society, the British Academy and UK Research and Innovation. More

If Keir Starmer wanted to prove he wasn’t dull, that he was an emotional man with the power to move others, then telling his life story to Piers Morgan was a great success. The story of the life and, most poignantly, the death of his parents almost brought a tear to his eye, and that of the viewer, and possibly even to Morgan. On the other hand, the fairly friendly exchanges between the two men also confirmed what must be obvious to anyone who has had the slightest acquaintance with Starmer, which is that he is a clever, cautious lawyer. When Morgan, a bit clumsily, tried to put words into the mouth of his “witness” by suggesting that he’d taken drugs at university but not enjoyed them, Sir Keir Starmer QC, former director of public prosecutions, was well able to dodge it. “We had a good time at university” was the formula of choice. It must have been, for Morgan if not the audience, a bit of a let down.Do back stories matter? Sometimes. Having a solid working class, trade-union background is a pretty substantial asset if you want to be elected deputy leader of the Labour Party, as Angela Rayner and John Prescott showed to their advantage. It doesn’t work so well for the leadership itself, which tends to go solidly to the lower middle, middle and upper middle class types, covering every leader from Attlee and Gaitskell through to Tony Blair and Jeremy Corbyn. Only Neil Kinnock serves as the exception, son of a coal miner and a nurse. Starmer is very much in that line of middle-class Labour leaders. His father was a highly skilled toolmaker, though as Starmer pointed out, he was rather looked down upon because he worked on the factory floor. Starmer didn’t drag himself up from crushing poverty, and doesn’t pretend to, and has obviously done well for himself and made his parents extremely proud. However, rising up through the ranks of the law just doesn’t quite have the same romantic appeal as a start in life as a care worker (Rayner) or a merchant seaman (Prescott). More

It would be amusing to suppose that there was a chorus of liberal voices in Budapest objecting to their prime minister, admittedly a bit of a populist himself, collaborating so openly with Boris Johnson, someone who has voiced extremist views on Muslims, is militantly anti-European, and has been responsible for much democratic backsliding in his time in power, attempting to suspend parliament, limit the freedom of the broadcast media and the courts. And yet, so far as can be judged, Viktor Orban’s populist summit with Johnson seems to have attracted little of the outrage that it has ignited in London. Less amusingly, Orban’s apparent acquiescence, and worse, in an upsurge of antisemitism in Hungary seems to be no barrier to a warm welcome in Downing Street. It is no coincidence that one of the main hate figures for conspiracy theorists is the Hungarian Jewish emigre George Soros. Johnson, who is certainly no antisemite, nonetheless seems happy to pursue his cynical, dangerous liaison with Europe’s most successful authoritarian, verging on totalitarian, leader, aside from Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus.They are an odd couple, and their meeting makes one wonder who’s using who. Orban is on something of a charm offensive, touring European capitals to make himself look important and statesmanlike rather than a chancer, ahead of elections next year. Orban will also enjoy annoying the EU’s leadership, which has clashed with him many times over human rights abuses and Hungary’s adamant refusal to take its share of migrants seeking refuge in the EU. Hungary habitually vetoes and weakens EU common foreign policy positions, most recently on Israel and Palestine. His Fidesz party has just been thrown out of the European Conservative/Christian Democrat group in the European Parliament, and he is looking for allies against President Macron and Chancellor Merkel, who find Orban so difficult to deal with. Recently Hungary has taken to diluting EU criticism on China, over human rights abuses in Hong Kong for example, something Johnson will probably have to raise at their meeting. Given the vast industrial and economic advantages Hungary derives from the EU there is no chance that Orban would try and pull Hungary of the EU; but with allies in the Visegrad group of Central European states, especially Poland, he seems very happy to take as much, and give as little, to the EU as possible. With the British gone, Hungary is the leader of the EU’s awkward squad. Despite setbacks for the likes of Marine le Pen and the far right in Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany, the wave of nationalistic protest has not subsided completely. More

What a difference a day makes. By the end of Dominic Cummings’s evidence session with MPs it was a wonder that Matt Hancock didn’t just resign and turn himself into the nearest police station. It was devastating stuff. And yet, 24 little hours later, Hancock was back at the Downing Street podium, untroubled by the fuss, behaving, apparently, as though nothing had happened. Appropriately for a man in charge of the health service, it was the biggest comeback since Lazarus.How so?First, he is fortunate in having Dominic Cummings for an enemy. True, Cummings can muster evidence, deploy an argument and pursue it with determination; but on the other hand, “Dom” is pretty much still hated by the public and, more to the point, much of the Conservative party, who cannot easily forgive or forget the damage he has inflicted on their government and party. Cummings is far from being rehabilitated, and can easily be portrayed as an unreliable witness, a bitter and twisted figure who is mad, bad and dangerous to know. More

Government ministers and their top officials have been nervously wondering for several weeks where exactly the most damaging “Dom bombs” were going to fall.It’s now clear that Dominic Cummings had Matt Hancock in his sights – singling out the health secretary for heavy and repeated bombardment during Wednesday’s testimony to the joint inquiry of MPs examining the government’s response to the pandemic.Boris Johnson’s former senior adviser accused Hancock of “criminal, disgraceful behaviour” by interfering with the fledgling test and trace system and claimed that the minister fell “disastrously below” the standards expected during a public health crisis. More

Like an FA Cup Final or a WBA title fight, Westminster is greatly looking forward to Dominic Cummings’s appearance at the Health and Social Care Committee. Even though the rest of the country might have heard more than enough from the PM’s former chief adviser, what he says about what various senior figures did – and did not – as the Covid crisis mounted last year will make a difference to careers and reputations. He also happens to be great theatre, as his appearance in the sunny garden of Downing Street one year ago demonstrated, and as his high profile departure from No 10 in the shadows last year confirmed.So who might the losers and winners be?Losers More