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    Donald Trump Wins the Iowa GOP Caucuses

    Donald J. Trump won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, a crucial first step in his bid to reclaim the Republican nomination for the third consecutive election as voters braved the bitter cold, looked past his mounting legal jeopardy and embraced his vision of vengeful disruption.The victory, called by The Associated Press on Monday night only 31 minutes after the caucuses had begun, accelerated Mr. Trump’s momentum toward a historic potential rematch in November with President Biden that could play out on both the campaign trail and in the courtroom.In a state that had rejected him in the caucuses eight years ago, Mr. Trump finished ahead of two of his main rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who were locked in a race for second place. It was unclear who had won second and who had won third. The result was a setback for both Republicans, who had spent as much time and money battling each other in Iowa as they had spent on the front-runner. Mr. DeSantis, the Florida governor, had previously predicted victory in Iowa, and both he and Ms. Haley, the former United Nations ambassador, have argued that a strong second-place finish would better position them as Mr. Trump’s chief rival going forward.Mr. Trump is the first former president in the modern era who has sought to return to the White House. On Monday, he was hoping to shatter the Republican record for the largest victory ever in a contested caucus, which was just under 13 percentage points. Despite the quick declaration of Mr. Trump as the winner, it was not yet clear if he would win an outright majority of more than 50 percent, a critical psychological barrier for those in the party still hoping to stop him.A spokesman for Mr. DeSantis, Andrew Romeo, said in a statement that the early declaration of Mr. Trump’s victory was “absolutely outrageous.” He borrowed a phrase from Mr. Trump to accuse the news media of participating “in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    How the Iowa Caucuses Work: A Guide to the Process

    To people accustomed to voting in primaries by walking into a polling site, privately completing a ballot and walking out — which is to say, most of the country — caucuses may seem bewildering.They certainly did to Mary Doyle when she went to her first caucus more than 20 years ago, after moving to Iowa from Illinois. “I had no clue what was going on,” she said. “It was all brand-new. These people get up and talk, and everybody’s talking, and I didn’t know anybody.”Like many Iowans, Ms. Doyle — who will be a precinct captain for former President Donald J. Trump at a caucus site in western Des Moines on Monday night — came to love the caucus process, with its open expression of candidate preferences and attempts at last-minute persuasion.Caucuses also have their critics, who note that the process makes voting inaccessible for some people and tends to lead to lower turnout than primaries. But love them or hate them, they are still happening. At 7 p.m. Central time, caucusgoers will gather — if they are not deterred by the bitter cold — in schools, community centers and other sites across the state.Here is a step-by-step guide to how the caucuses will work.ArrivalVoters will arrive at their designated caucus site and sign in. Workers will check each person’s ID and voter registration. While only registered Republicans can participate, people are allowed to register or change their party affiliation on the spot.If the campaigns are well organized, each candidate will have a captain on site at each precinct, and that captain may hand out stickers, hats or other swag to supporters as they arrive — a sort of visual display of the strength of that candidate’s support.MinglingAs people wait for the caucus to formally begin, caucusgoers can talk among themselves. Especially in small communities, many of them will know each other, and many of them will start discussing their candidate preferences. They may try to persuade one another if they see an opening.Cody Hoefert, a precinct captain in Rock Rapids for Ron DeSantis who has served as a captain in many election cycles and is a former co-chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said he would be striking up conversations, looking for people who were undecided or not firmly committed to their choice, and giving them his pitch for Mr. DeSantis.Proceedings beginThe caucus will be called to order, and the caucusgoers’ first order of official business will be to elect a chair to oversee the proceedings.SpeechesA representative for each candidate — generally, precinct captains chosen in advance by the campaigns — will have a chance to give a short speech. Time restrictions can vary from site to site, generally from two to five minutes.This is the part of the process that most distinguishes caucuses from primaries: Participants are, up until the very last moment, actively trying to recruit more people to their side. While most voters are likely to have made up their minds, some may wait to make a final decision until they hear the speeches, and — you never know — some may be leaning toward one candidate but be swayed by a particularly persuasive speech.VotingPaper ballots will be distributed, and people will cast their votes.The votes will be counted on-site right away. The captains will observe the counting process and flag any problems that they see, and regular caucusgoers are allowed to watch as well. The results will be announced out loud and then sent to the state party.The state party will tabulate results from all the precincts and release the statewide totals to the public. More

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    The Needle Returns for the Iowa Caucus. Here’s How It Works.

    In addition to estimating the final result, our live election model will also look at who is likeliest to take second place.Once Iowa caucus results start coming in after 8 p.m. Eastern tonight, The Times will start publishing a live estimate of the final result, better known as the Needle.How to watch the Needle tonightWith Donald J. Trump leading in polls by a wide margin and with much of the focus on the race for second place, our results pages will feature graphics designed to help you understand how multiple candidates are faring rather than just having a single needle displaying who is most likely to win the race.This hypothetical chart below shows how our live estimates of the Iowa caucuses will work. Our best estimate for each candidate’s final vote share will be shown along with a range of estimates for where things might end up.  More

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    My Iowa: Covering the Caucuses as a Native or a Newcomer

    One of our reporters grew up in Iowa City and was inspired to become a journalist after witnessing the caucuses in action. Another touched down here for the first time two months ago. They compared notes.KELLEN BROWNING If you were trying to think of a city that feels like the polar opposite of San Francisco, Des Moines would be a pretty good bet.When I learned in November that I had two weeks to pack up my life in the Bay Area and move to Iowa for the winter to report on the Iowa caucuses, I called up Sydney Ember, a colleague who drew this assignment four years ago, for advice. She reassured me that driving in the snow would be easy, and said she had almost died only three times on the icy roads during her time in Iowa covering the 2020 Democratic primary race.Armed with that comforting knowledge — and some new coats — I took off for Des Moines. In just six short weeks, I’ve driven more than 3,400 miles in my rental car, attended rallies for all of the leading candidates and spoken with dozens of voters. But while I was moonlighting as an Iowan, one of my colleagues on staff is the real thing.Anjali Huynh, a politics reporter who grew up in Iowa City, has watched all of us reporters try to become Iowa experts, and — I can only imagine — rolled her eyes at our inability to blend in with the locals. As I prepared to wrap up my stint here, I wanted to chat with a real Iowan about her state, and share some of what I have learned.Here’s our conversation.ANJALI HUYNH What was your reaction when you first heard that you were going to be sent to Des Moines, somewhere you haven’t been before?KELLEN I have not spent time in the Midwest, so I was looking forward to it, but I also just had no idea what to expect. In my head I had visions of cornfields and flat terrain, a stark contrast to the slopes of San Francisco. When I first got out here, my first impression of downtown Des Moines was: “Wow, it’s so quiet. I guess people are just at home because it’s kind of cold out.” But Iowa is simply a much more sparsely populated state, and I soon came to realize that’s just how it was.ANJALI How cold was it?KELLEN It was like 40 degrees, which I now view as warm. But, I’m curious: What has it been like for you, who grew up in Iowa City, seeing people like me parachute in?ANJALI It’s been very odd. Part of why I got into journalism was because of the caucuses. In 2016, the first event I ever attended was for Senator Bernie Sanders in my hometown, because I heard that Josh Hutcherson, the guy who plays Peeta in “The Hunger Games,” was going to campaign alongside him.I was 14. I remember being in awe of how many people were there, all to see this guy from Vermont. That was the first time I realized the power that Iowa had in drawing all these candidates here.Campaign signs in Des Moines, where Asa Hutchinson, a long-shot Republican presidential candidate, spoke over the weekend. Hilary Swift for The New York TimesSo in 2020, ahead of the Democratic primary, I persuaded a local newsmagazine to let me follow the candidates. I went to the Iowa State Fair for them, and while covering the candidates, I remember seeing all the national journalists and the way they were talking about and ramming past fairgoers, and just feeling frustrated. I knew that if I made it to some sort of a national stage, I wanted to do it better, to talk about Iowans not just using tropes, but making sure I actually understood why they believed what they believed.KELLEN That’s something I have tried to do by having the opportunity to be on the ground here for six weeks. ANJALI Is there anything that surprised you about Iowa?KELLEN I truly did not realize the whole “Iowa Nice” thing was real. Campaign operatives or strategists who have been doing this for a long time have asked me, “Oh, did you bring mittens? Do you need them?”But Anjali, I wanted to ask what you’re expecting from the caucuses today. What do you make of the process in general?ANJALI I’m still talking to a lot of voters who are undecided. I’ve been covering Vivek Ramaswamy over the last week, and I’ve encountered so many people at his events who say they’re between him and any number of other candidates. Many Iowans wait until the last second to decide whom they’re going to support, so those final pitches do matter.There are a lot of issues with the caucuses; the fact that they’re at a very set time, on a certain day, in person, does make them inaccessible to some people.But there’s a certain beauty about seeing the process unfold, seeing neighbors who really value this process come together and convince one another to support a particular candidate. Iowa has a more diverse array of perspectives than it gets credit for — there aren’t just farmers here — and you can especially see that during the caucuses.Vivek Ramaswamy at an event last week in Des Moines. Hilary Swift for The New York TimesKELLEN My biggest takeaway is that I’ve really enjoyed talking to voters face-to-face who take this very seriously and take their civic responsibility very seriously. And they’re willing to talk to the media.I was speaking with these two couples in Sioux Center the other day after a Trump rally, and they said: “You know, we don’t really like The New York Times very much. We don’t trust it.” We had a 20-minute conversation. I was explaining where the media was coming from: We report the truth. Our stories are accurate. And they said, essentially, “The media has lost the trust of people” and they’re relying more on what they see around them, and on alternative news sources, like Tucker Carlson.There’s this divide now in the country about what is factual, and that makes it very hard to get through to people. But I appreciate that we were able to talk face-to-face about this rather than through a screen.ANJALI Do you have any funny moments from the trail?KELLEN The funniest moment for me was a question from a 10-year-old girl from Nebraska who asked Vivek Ramaswamy, if he became president, whether he would ask China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for a giant panda for her zoo. And he said he would try.ANJALI What about general Iowa highlights?KELLEN Going for runs around Gray’s Lake in Des Moines. There are some incredible sunsets in Iowa. There are several great bridges in Des Moines that light up at night. Some of the food has been really good.A bridge over Gray’s Lake in Des Moines, where Kellen Browning went on runs during his stint in Iowa.Kellen Browning/The New York TimesEven when campaign events took me to rural parts of the state, I found them charming. The Fruited Plain Café in downtown Sioux Center, for instance, is a cozy place to take refuge from the cold. And at one point, I accidentally drove into Nebraska. Anjali, what’s your favorite place in Iowa that’s not Iowa City?ANJALI Dubuque in the fall is beautiful. Last time I went, they had a winter market going on.KELLEN I’ll have to come back at a time when it’s not negative 18 degrees outside. More

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    Our DeSantis and Haley Reporters Switched Places. Here’s What They Found.

    The candidates — and their campaigns — are a study in contrasts, from the vibes of their events to how they interact with voters and the press.For months, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, Republican contenders locked in a heated rivalry for second place in their party’s 2024 presidential nominating contest, have been crisscrossing Iowa ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses.And so have we.As beat reporters, we’ve been trailing these two candidates for so long that we can recite every punchline, anticipate the applause and guess their potential responses to questions from voters on the campaign trail. Normally, Nicholas Nehamas is on the road with Mr. DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and Jazmine Ulloa follows Ms. Haley, former governor of South Carolina.On the final Saturday before Iowans vote, we switched roles for a day. Nicholas drove northeast from Des Moines to a Haley event at a brewery in Cedar Falls. Jazmine headed west to a DeSantis event in Council Bluffs.Here’s what we learned.The VibesNICHOLAS The first thing I noticed when I walked into Second State Brewing in Cedar Falls: Ms. Haley’s warm-up music wasn’t deafening. At DeSantis events, the music drowns out every thought and makes it difficult to talk to voters. Which almost feels intentional.The Haley crowd, roughly 60 people, was also a little younger and more suburban than I was used to. One voter told me she was a New York Times subscriber — not something I typically hear when I’m following Mr. DeSantis.About 15 minutes before Ms. Haley went onstage, someone announced over the sound system that reporters needed to go to the back of the room. I ignored that and kept talking to voters. Eventually, a very polite Haley staffer came to retrieve me. The tightly controlled environment felt like the early days of the DeSantis campaign, when harried staff members tried to keep us away from voters and sometimes even the candidate.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Who Are the Iowa Caucus Captains and What Do They Do?

    At every precinct from Sioux City to Davenport, captains will give speeches on behalf of their preferred candidates and try to persuade their neighbors at the last minute.What distinguishes the caucuses in Iowa from the primaries in most other states is persuasion: the notion that, even if someone enters their voting site with a preferred candidate, they might still be open to changing their mind.While electioneering is commonly prohibited at polling places in other states, in the gymnasiums, auditoriums, churches and community centers where Iowans will gather Monday night, it is actively encouraged. And the people formally tasked with doing it — the precinct captains — are some of the caucuses’ most important players. Yet, they are little known to outside observers.The goal is to have one captain for each candidate, at each site. They try to personally persuade people before the proceedings begin, and later comes the central responsibility: a short speech on why their neighbors should support their candidate.Some are seasoned operatives — one of Ron DeSantis’s captains is a former co-chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, and one of Nikki Haley’s is a state senator.But many are just ordinary Iowans who decided to volunteer, often for the first time. Meet four of them:Mary DoyleSupporting Donald J. Trump in Des Moines“I was a little bit leery because, oh, wait a minute, that sounds like it’s important and I should know what I’m doing,” Mary Doyle said about being a caucus captain.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesWhen Mary Doyle, 69, attended a Trump rally last summer, she checked a box on a form saying she wanted to help the campaign. On Monday, she will be a precinct captain — a job she hesitated to agree to.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    The Weather in Iowa Is Not the Only Thing That Is Bitterly Cold

    Bret Stephens: Gail, we are conversing on the eve of the Iowa caucuses — not yet knowing who came in second, but not in much doubt about who’ll come in first. I’m trying to remember the last time the Republican winner went on to win the nomination: Ted Cruz in 2016? Rick Santorum in 2012? Mike Huckabee in 2008?Losers all. Assuming Donald Trump wins, that might even be a good omen.Gail Collins: And remember, Trump won Iowa in 2020, when he was an incumbent president looking for a second term; that didn’t turn out all that well for him, either.Bret: Not that I’m rooting for him to win in Iowa. Or anywhere else for that matter.Gail: I like the way we’re starting out! Now tell me how you think the other Republicans are doing. Especially your fave, Nikki Haley.Bret: Her zinger in the debate with Ron DeSantis — “You’re so desperate, you’re just so desperate” — could be turned into a country music hit by Miranda Lambert. Or maybe Carly Simon: You’re so desperate, you probably think this race is about you. Don’t you? Don’t you?Gail: Hehehehehe.Bret: I just fear that, in the battle between Haley and DeSantis, they’re canceling each other out, like matter and antimatter. As our colleague Frank Bruni pointed out in his terrific column last week, that just clears the path for The Donald.Gail: Whenever a candidate boasts, like DeSantis, that he’s visited all 99 counties in Iowa, you hear a shriek of desperation mixed in with the bragging. But I’m not gonna totally give up hope for Haley until we see what happens in New Hampshire.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    A Big Reason to Pay Attention to Iowa? New Hampshire.

    Second place could mean a lot to Nikki Haley tonight as a showdown with Donald Trump looms in the next primary contest.Finishing second in Iowa could propel Nikki Haley in New Hampshire.John Tully for The New York TimesThe long road to the Republican presidential nomination begins tonight in Iowa, where voters will gather at their neighborhood precinct caucuses to cast the first votes of the 2024 election campaign.Iowa may not have many voters or delegates, but the first-in-the-nation caucuses always attract a media frenzy. With the help of the national spotlight, Iowa voters have been surprisingly influential over the decades: A caucus win has sometimes been enough to propel candidates — think Barack Obama or Jimmy Carter — from a deep deficit or even obscurity to the nomination.But tonight, Iowa voters seem likely to choose Donald J. Trump — someone they didn’t pick eight years ago, but who now appears poised for the largest victory in a contested Iowa Republican caucus.Absent a polling meltdown, Mr. Trump’s victory would be one of the more impressive illustration of his dominance over the Republican Party. In 2016, Iowa voters rejected Mr. Trump in favor of Ted Cruz. And unlike most of the country, the Republican establishment in Iowa has not gone along with Mr. Trump. Yet he’s poised for an overwhelming victory anyway.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More