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    School Bus Fire in Thailand Kills at Least 23 People

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    The vehicle was returning from a field trip and caught fire outside Bangkok. Rescuers were still searching for bodies in the wreckage.The authorities believe the fire occurred after a tire exploded, causing the bus — which was filled with children and schoolteachers — to lose control and hit a barrier.Chalinee Thirasupa/ReutersA bus filled with schoolchildren and teachers caught fire just outside Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, on Tuesday, killing at least 23 people.There were 23 bodies found on the double-decker bus, Police Lt. Gen. Trairong Phiwpan, chief of the Police Forensic Science Office, told reporters. Nineteen other people were injured, a doctor told reporters.Rescue workers were still trying to recover the bodies from the wreckage on Tuesday evening, according to Thailand’s interior minister, Anutin Charnvirakul. He did not give an official death toll.Photographs showed the bus was completely charred by the fire. Mr. Anutin added that the bus was powered by compressed natural gas, a fuel that makes vehicles more prone to fire compared with diesel.The driver fled the scene, Mr. Anutin said.The bus was one of three that were carrying children and teachers from the province of Uthai Thani, which is northwest of Bangkok. They were returning from a school field trip to the ancient temples of Ayutthaya. The school’s students range in age from 4 to 15 years old.The episode occurred at about 12:30 p.m. on a road in Pathum Thani on the northern outskirts of the capital. The fire happened after a tire exploded, causing the bus to zigzag and hit a barrier, according to Pornprapa Aundonkloy, a teacher who was on another bus. The interior minister provided a similar account.When the other bus arrived at the scene, two young students jumped off the bus, Ms. Pornprapa told local reporters. She carried them and said their bodies were swollen from the fire.Ms. Pornprapa said that only the front door of the bus could open. “If the back door could open, more children would have survived,” she added.The fire happened so quickly that teachers onboard could not grab their phones, according to the Royal Thai Police’s acting national police chief, Police Gen. Kittirat Panpetch. Several teachers could get out through the door, but some students were forced to jump through the windows.“The rest were probably shocked and couldn’t come out,” General Kittirat said. “We are in the process of checking who are those children.”Dr. Anocha Takham, a surgeon from PatRangsit Hospital, said the facility received three female patients, including a child whose corneas were burned.Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was teary as she spoke about the incident and said the government would cover all medical costs and compensation.“As a mother, I would like to express my deepest regrets to the families of those killed,” she said.Ryn Jirenuwat More

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      Moo Deng Is the Internet’s Favorite Pygmy Hippopotamus

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      Moo Deng, whose name translates to “bouncy pork,” has united the internet while following a familiar path to stardom.Defiant, sassy, slippery, chubby, loves to scream. We can all relate.If you have yet to come across the internet’s favorite pygmy hippopotamus, then meet Moo Deng. She’s a bit of a diva.“The hottest, hottest new It girl on the planet,” Hoda Kotb, a co-anchor on the “Today” show, said during a recent episode. “She’s redefining beauty standards: She’s got chubby pink cheeks, a distinct potato shape.”Since Moo Deng’s public introduction by the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Chon Buri, Thailand, south of Bangkok, on July 25, when she was 2 weeks old, her star has only risen.Her name, which translates to “bouncy pork,” was chosen by a poll held on the zoo’s Facebook page; around 20,000 people voted. There were three options: Moo Deng, Moo Sap (minced pork) and Moo Daeng (red pork). Moo Deng won easily.Yammi Saracino, a ceramacist and content creator born in Bangkok, has taken credit for the hippo’s initial international fame. When he saw the poll, he felt compelled to translate it into English so that a broader audience would find her.“The winner clearly was Moo Deng,” he said. “I think that partially had something to do with me, because I was like, ‘I’m voting for this name, so help me vote for this name.’”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Son of Spanish Actor Is Convicted of Murdering Colombian Surgeon in Thailand

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      Daniel Sancho Bronchalo was sentenced to life imprisonment after a court in Koh Samui ruled that he was guilty of murdering Edwin Arrieta Arteaga last year.A court in Thailand on Thursday sentenced Daniel Sancho Bronchalo, the son of the Spanish actor Rodolfo Sancho, to life in prison after finding him guilty of murdering a Colombian surgeon and dismembering his body.The trial, which ended in May on Koh Samui, an island popular among tourists, drew international headlines for involving the scion of a famous Spanish acting family and for the gruesome nature of a killing in a region known for its resorts, parties and beaches.Prosecutors had accused Mr. Sancho, 30, of murdering Edwin Arrieta Arteaga in August last year. The two men had met up on the Thai island of Koh Phangan during its monthly full-moon celebrations, during which partygoers dance all night on the beach. Mr. Sancho said they had connected on Instagram a year earlier and become romantically involved, the Spanish newspaper El País reported.Mr. Sancho being escorted by a police officer on Koh Phangan, an island known for its full-moon parties. Somkeat Ruksaman/EPA, via ShutterstockDuring the trial, prosecutors accused Mr. Sancho, a chef who posted cooking videos on YouTube, of purchasing knives and a saw before meeting Mr. Arrieta, a 44-year-old surgeon from northern Colombia. Mr. Sancho then killed Mr. Arrieta, they argued, before dumping some parts of the body in a landfill on the island and others in the sea. After attending a full-moon party the next evening, he reported Mr. Arrieta as missing to police officers.Mr. Sancho, whose mother, Silvia Bronchalo, is also an actress, pleaded guilty to a charge of concealing the body, according to a statement from the Koh Samui Provincial Court, and he admitted during the trial to dismembering and disposing of Mr. Arrieta’s body.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Thailand Confirms First Case of New, Deadlier Mpox Strain, Clade 1b

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      The Clade Ib version of the virus had not been detected outside Africa until last week, when a case in Sweden raised concerns about a wider outbreak.Health officials in Thailand said on Thursday that they had confirmed a case of the version of mpox that prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global health emergency. It’s the second time that the new and deadlier version has been found outside Africa.The announcement of the case in Thailand is likely to stir concerns about the virus spreading more widely, especially after the version was discovered in Sweden last week. Previously the outbreak had been concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo.The version of the mpox virus detected in these recent cases is known as Clade Ib. Health officials are particularly concerned about it because it has a death rate of 3 percent, much higher than the 0.2 percent death rate observed in a 2022 outbreak.That earlier outbreak was driven by a version called Clade IIb, which is spread predominantly through sexual contact. Men who had sex with men proved to be the most at risk, but behavioral changes and vaccinations curbed the spread.Clade Ib appears to have spread mainly through heterosexual sex, epidemiologists have said. Another subtype, Clade Ia, has spread through household contact and exposure to affected animals in addition to sexual contact. So far, young children have been the most vulnerable to this subtype.Thai officials said on Wednesday that the infected person was a 66-year-old European man who worked in an African country with an ongoing outbreak. They did not specify which country. The man, who has a home in Thailand, was not reported to have severe symptoms.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Myanmar Arms Dealer Acquitted in Thai Money Laundering Case

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      U Tun Min Latt was placed under sanctions last year by the United States for supplying drones and aircraft parts to the military regime in Myanmar.A wealthy Myanmar arms broker with close ties to the leader of Myanmar’s brutal military regime was acquitted on Tuesday by a Bangkok court on charges of drug trafficking and money laundering, raising fears that he will be free to resume his activities aiding the junta.U Tun Min Latt, who was placed under sanctions by the United States last year for supplying the Myanmar regime with weapons, had spent 16 months in a Thai jail awaiting trial. The case is the first known instance of a close associate of Myanmar’s army commander, Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, being arrested abroad and put on trial since the military seized power in a coup three years ago.The Thai authorities had accused Mr. Tun Min Latt and three associates of engaging in a scheme to launder drug money by using it to buy electricity in Thailand and sending it across the border to Myanmar. But the Thai criminal court found that the record of bank transactions presented by prosecutors did not provide sufficient evidence to prove the charges.With the ruling, about two dozen family members and supporters of the accused burst into applause in the courtroom. Some wept tears of joy.But Phil Robertson, the deputy director for Human Rights Watch in Asia, expressed disappointment.“It’s hard to believe that a Burmese tycoon that many have referred to as being junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s bagman got off,” he said. “The only people happy with this outcome are the junta generals who are increasingly desperate to find resources and, quite clearly, Tun Min Latt has proved very helpful in that regard in the past.”In recent months, an armed resistance made up of pro-democracy forces and ethnic rebel groups has reported gaining ground against the military, saying it has seized hundreds of military outposts and dozens of towns in Myanmar’s border regions.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Thai Ex-Prime Minister Returns From Exile, Adding to Political Chaos

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      Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup in 2006, has come back to Thailand at a time when the country is struggling to elect a new leader.Thaksin Shinawatra, the former premier who was ousted in a coup and has been living in exile since 2006, returned to Bangkok for the first time in 15 years on Tuesday, adding to the country’s political drama on a day that Parliament was to vote for a new prime minister.Mr. Thaksin was living in self-imposed exile in part to avoid facing corruption and abuse of power charges affiliated with his telecom business. While in exile, he shuttled between England, Hong Kong and Dubai, avoiding Thailand for fear of not receiving a fair trial. He was tried for most of these cases in absentia and found guilty of several charges.Mr. Thaksin’s private jet arrived Tuesday morning at the Don Muang International Airport in Bangkok. And his landing comes after months of a political logjam that has left the country without a clear leadership candidate after the top vote-winner in the May general election was functionally blocked from office by allies of the country’s military and monarchy.His return reflects the degree of confidence that he has in his party, Pheu Thai, to form a government and elect a new prime minister this week. Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon and a close ally of Mr. Thaksin, has been nominated for the job by Pheu Thai, but it remains unclear if he will win the post once voting is done on Tuesday.Pheu Thai’s candidates Srettha Thavisin, left, and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of Mr. Thaksin, at a rally in Bangkok in May. Jorge Silva/ReutersAt a news conference on Sunday, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, said her father would not be involved in politics once he returned to Thailand. But few Thai voters believe that claim.Mr. Thaksin, a charismatic 74-year-old billionaire, is the founder of Pheu Thai, which still looks to him for guidance, according to party members. His policies remain popular in Thailand, where many Thais recall his populist agenda fondly, particularly his $1 health care program and the disbursement of loans to farmers when he was prime minister from 2001 to 2006.But more recently, Pheu Thai supporters have felt betrayed by the party’s moves to partner with the military in order to form a new government and elect a prime minister.Earlier this month, Pheu Thai abandoned its main coalition partner, the progressive Move Forward Party, which won the general election in May. Move Forward had refused to withdraw its pledge to revise a law that criminalizes criticism of the powerful Thai monarchy, an institution fiercely backed by conservatives and the military.Thai soldiers standing guard in front of the Royal Plaza in Bangkok after the military seized power from Mr. Thaksin in a coup in 2006.Pornchai Kittiwongsakul/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesUntil now, Pheu Thai had vowed never to partner with military-backed parties in Parliament.Despite his influence, Mr. Thaksin no longer has the same hold over the Thai public that he did a decade ago. A generation of young Thais see him as a self-serving politician obsessed with orchestrating an elaborate homecoming. In his absence, other charismatic figures like Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward Party, have risen, appealing to an electorate disillusioned with the politics of the old.In 2008, Mr. Thaksin made a brief return to Thailand after his political allies won an election. During that time, he and his then-wife, Potjaman Na Pombejra, were tried on a conflict of interest case over a plot of land that was sold to Ms. Potjaman. He fled to London before the guilty verdict was handed down. More

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      Thailand’s Royal Establishment Is Denying the Will of the People Again

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      For a brief time this summer, it seemed like Thailand might finally be on the cusp of truly representative government.In elections in May, a pro-reform party won the largest share of votes, riding a wave of public discontent over nine years of military rule and the outsize prerogatives enjoyed by the Thai royal family. Thailand’s monarchy is one of the wealthiest and longest-reigning in the world. Backed by the military and the judiciary, it is the linchpin of a conservative establishment that has fought off challenges to its dominance for decades, often with royally-endorsed military coups that overthrew democratically elected governments. This state of affairs has mired Thailand in a cycle of recurring political violence and frustrated the democratic yearnings of a new generation.So, like many of my compatriots who also grew up in this authoritarian climate, I celebrated the win by the progressive Move Forward Party, which openly seeks to curb royal power, and the second-place finish of Pheu Thai, a longtime opposition party. Voters issued a resounding call for change.Now those hopes are being crushed.More than two months after the elections, Thailand still does not have its new government, as the conservative establishment maneuvers to deny the will of the people once again by frustrating Move Forward’s efforts to form a coalition.We’ve been here before. But this time it feels even more ominous for the future of Thai democracy. A royalist establishment that has in the past relied on the blunt force of the military has added political sophistication to its arsenal. Working through the parliamentary system, this old guard has maneuvered to block Move Forward and co-opt Pheu Thai in return for allowing the party’s 74-year-old spiritual leader Thaksin Shinawatra, a popular former prime minister, to return from exile.The Thai monarchy has always been an aggressive contender for political power.In 1932, Thailand ended centuries of absolute royal rule in favor of a constitutional monarchy. But the ensuing 70-year reign of late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who died in 2016, undid much of that. After taking the throne in 1946 the king forged ties with the military and together they engineered a neo-royalist system which, although far from an absolute monarchy, placed the palace at the political apex and exalted King Bhumibol as a godlike figure. Elected governments were subservient or tossed out. The neo-royalists were never interested in investing in electoral politics to guarantee their power, relying instead on shortcuts like military coups and strict lèse-majestélaws that forbid criticism of the monarchy and are an important tool for protecting its privileges.Supporters of Move Forward Party’s leader and its prime minister candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, during a protest in Bangkok.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockBut over the past decade, with the towering figure of King Bhumibol gone and the palace occupied by his less-revered son, King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun, the neo-royalists have realized the need for novel strategies. After its latest coup in 2014, the military moved to preserve conservative dominance and contracept future challenges with new changes, including stuffing the Senate with appointees to offset the democratically elected House of Representatives.These tactics are hardly new in the political life of Southeast Asia. Autocratic governments in the region have become more sophisticated in manipulating electoral systems to secure power. Myanmar’s military junta has for years retained 25 percent of the seats in Parliament, which enables it to block constitutional changes that could weaken its authority. After decades of neutralizing dissent, the Cambodian strongman Hun Sen has more recently turned to using stage-managed elections to give his regime a thin veneer of legitimacy. (He intends to hand power over to his son.)The Thai neo-royalists are adopting the same strategies.Parliamentary means have been used to deny Move Forward its right to form a government. The party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, failed to secure enough votes in Parliament to become prime minister and is also under investigation for failing to disclose shares held in a media company, which could disqualify him from office. Move Forward represented too much change to Thailand’s stifling political culture and simply could not be allowed to take power.Other forces that bode ill for reform are also in motion. The conservative pushback has prompted the pro-democracy Pheu Thai party to break from a proposed coalition with Move Forward and into talks with conservatives on forming a government.This is a momentous shift for Thai politics. Pheu Thai is the successor to a party founded by Mr. Thaksin, a populist business tycoon who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006. Mr. Thaksin won over voters by advocating to improve livelihoods in poor and marginalized regions of the country. But when his popularity threatened to eclipse that of King Bhumibol, he was ousted in a coup and fled the country, saying he could not get a fair trial in Thailand on a series of corruption charges; he was later sentenced to a total of 12 years in prison. The struggle for influence — marked by two coups and a series of violent street demonstrations — between the conservative establishment and Mr. Thaksin’s supporters and relatives has dominated Thai politics for more than two decades.Now there are indications that Mr. Thaksin and Pheu Thai are falling in line with the royalists. Mr. Thaksin has long expressed a desire to come home and reunite with his family. In the run up to the elections in May, he pleaded publicly for “permission” to return home and came out against reforms proposed by Move Forward to curb royal influence.Last week, Mr. Thaksin’s daughter announced that he would return to Thailand on Aug. 10 after 15 years in exile. Royalists who had previously cursed Mr. Thaksin as public enemy No. 1 are now cheering his return, hoping to thwart what they see as the greater threat: the Move Forward Party and the generational change that it represents.Mr. Thaksin gets to come home; the royal establishment dodges a potent challenge. The only ones who won’t get what they want are the Thai voters.Pavin Chachavalpongpun @PavinKyoto is associate professor at Kyoto University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies. He is the editor of the forthcoming “Rama X: The Thai Monarchy under King Vajiralongkorn.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Thai PM Vote: Lawmakers Block Move Forward Party’s Candidate

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      Demonstrations unfolded as lawmakers prevented a progressive candidate from contesting a second parliamentary vote. Here’s what to know.Protests erupted in Bangkok on Wednesday, hours after Thailand’s conservative establishment suspended a progressive leader and lawmakers denied him the chance to stand for a second parliamentary vote for prime minister.The candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, leads a party that won the most votes in a May election after campaigning on an ambitious reform platform that challenged the country’s powerful conservative establishment. He lost an initial parliamentary vote for prime minister last week.Late Wednesday, lawmakers voted to deny Mr. Pita, 42, the chance to stand for a second vote on the grounds that Parliament’s rules do not permit a “repeat motion.” Mr. Pita’s supporters see that as a not-so-subtle move to keep him out of power.The mood in Bangkok, Thailand’s muggy capital, was anxious as protesters hit the streets on Wednesday afternoon. Mr. Pita’s supporters have been expressing outrage online toward an establishment that often pushes back against Thailand’s democratic process.“In my heart, I knew this would happen, so it didn’t come as a shock,” said Wichuda Rotphai, 41, one of hundreds of people who gathered outside Parliament on Wednesday to support Mr. Pita’s doomed bid for premier. “But I’m still disappointed, and I can’t accept it.”Here’s what to know.What does Pita Limjaroenrat stand for?Mr. Pita’s party, Move Forward, has proposed ambitious policies for challenging Thailand’s powerful institutions like the military and the monarchy. The party won 151 seats in Parliament, the most of any party, and 10 more than Pheu Thai, the party founded by the exiled populist Thaksin Shinawatra, whose influence still towers over Thai politics.Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of the Move Forward Party, in Parliament, on Wednesday.Sakchai Lalit/Associated PressMr. Pita’s party has formed an eight-party coalition, which nominated him for prime minister last week. He came up short in the first vote because the Senate is controlled by military-appointed lawmakers who oppose his candidacy and the Move Forward platform.I’m confused. Why are senators so tied to the military?Becoming prime minister requires a simple majority of the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate.But the rules governing Senate appointments were drafted by the military junta that seized power from a democratically elected government in a 2014 coup. They effectively give senators veto power over prime ministerial candidates.Parliament members voting for prime minister for the second time, on Wednesday. Chalinee Thirasupa/ReutersLast week, Mr. Pita won only 13 votes from the 249 senators who voted for prime minister. Mr. Pita acknowledged in an Instagram post on Wednesday afternoon that he was unlikely to become prime minister.“It’s clear now that in the current system, winning the people’s trust isn’t enough to run the country,” he wrote.Why was it such an uphill battle?Mr. Pita had faced a slew of challenges even before Parliament denied him a chance to stand for a second vote.The Constitutional Court said on Wednesday morning, for example, that it was suspending Mr. Pita from Parliament until a ruling is made in a case involving his shares of a media company. Investigators are trying to determine whether Mr. Pita properly disclosed owning the shares before running for office, as required by Thai law.Young supporters cheering for Mr. Pita in Nonthaburi, Thailand, in May.Lauren DeCicca for The New York TimesThe court’s ruling forced Mr. Pita to leave the chamber. It would not necessarily have prevented his coalition from nominating for a second time. But Parliament saw to that on its own. Mr. Pita’s supporters have said the investigation is one of many ways that the establishment has been trying to unfairly derail his candidacy.So who will be prime minister?Before the drama on Wednesday, Mr. Pita had said if it became clear that he could not win, his party would allow its coalition partner, Pheu Thai, to nominate its own candidate.Pheu Thai probably will do just that, but is also likely to form a brand-new coalition, one that is more palatable to conservative lawmakers who cannot stomach Mr. Pita and Move Forward.Pheu Thai’s candidate would likely be Srettha Thavisin, 60, a property mogul with little political experience. If a new coalition materializes, he could be voted in as prime minister as early as this week.Srettha Thavisin could be the candidate that the Pheu Thai Party puts forward if it has a chance.Narong Sangnak/EPA, via ShutterstockMr. Srettha would immediately present a sharp contrast to the current prime minister, former Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the 2014 military coup.A more remote, but not impossible, scenario is that Pheu Thai allows a party from the conservative establishment to nominate a candidate as a condition for joining a new coalition. That candidate could be Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, the deputy prime minister in the current government.What would a Srettha victory represent?Many would see it as a triumph for the democratic process in Thailand, a country with a long history of mass protests and military coups. Some foreign investors would also see a potential boost for a sluggish, coronavirus-battered economy.But many of Move Forward’s progressive supporters would be angry about the establishment blocking their party from forming a government. On Wednesday evening, a demonstration reflecting that anger was taking shape at the city’s Democracy Monument.Police officers in riot gear gathering near the Thai Parliament on Wednesday. The intensity of any protests in coming days could depend on who becomes the country’s next prime minister.Lauren Decicca/Getty ImagesThe size of the protests over the next days or weeks will likely depend on who becomes prime minister. If it’s Mr. Srettha, demonstrations could be sporadic and modest. If it’s General Prawit or another military figure, they could be sustained and intense.Ms. Wichuda, the protester, was one of hundreds who gathered outside Parliament on Wednesday afternoon, peering through its gates at police officers in riot gear. She said that while she did not agree with Mr. Pita’s contentious pledge to revise a law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy, she still felt he had been “robbed” by politicians who were afraid to give a younger generation the chance to improve the country.“If they can do such things to people with money and power,” she said, “what will be left for us, the common people, who have no position and no title?” More

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      Thailand’s Prime Minister Vote Puts Coalition at Risk

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      The progressive Move Forward Party has failed to form a government, leaving members of the liberal opposition scrambling to find alternatives.After winning the general election in May, the progressive Move Forward party in Thailand promised to introduce bold democratic reforms in the Southeast Asian nation. But last week, the party suffered an embarrassing defeat in Parliament when its candidate of choice failed to muster enough votes to win the premiership and form a government.Now, as Parliament gathers on Wednesday to vote for prime minister for a second time in less than a week, the fragile coalition that Move Forward has cobbled together is on the verge of falling apart. At stake may be the fate of democracy in a nation that has repeatedly tried to overturn military rule and in a region where autocracy is on the rise.“Thailand is not ready to change,” said Pongkwan Sawasdipakdi, a political scientist at Thammasat University in Bangkok. “People in the establishment are not going to let change happen.”Opposition parties tend to come and go in Thailand. Each time, they face rough headwinds brought on by the military-appointed Senate and royalist allies that form the bedrock of the country’s conservative political establishment.Move Forward’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved by the Thai government in 2020 after being accused of violating election law. The leader of Move Forward, Pita Limjaroenrat, is under investigation for owning undisclosed shares of a media company, which could disqualify him from office.Supporters see both cases as flagrant moves by the establishment to block the opposition from wresting power from the ruling conservative government.If the Move Forward coalition falls short on Wednesday, that may be a prelude to another cycle of unrest in Thailand, which was rocked by widespread pro-democracy protests during the coronavirus pandemic. But analysts say the opposition could offer a compromise: a new coalition led by the populist Pheu Thai Party, a familiar name in Thai politics that hews much closer to the status quo.Mr. Limjaroenrat reacting after failing to muster enough votes to win the premiership last week.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockAfter Wednesday, Pheu Thai could try to form an alternate coalition that appeals to voters who thought Move Forward was pushing for too much change, as well as to the conservative establishment, whose dismal performance in the election has left it with few options for maintaining its present grip on power.Forming a new opposition coalition will present its own challenges for Pheu Thai.For any new coalition to stand a chance, it needs to include conservative and military-backed parties, which will make demands that will likely run counter to the wishes of Move Forward voters. Those supporters, rather than backing the new government, may choose to take to the streets.“There will be protests,” said Phit Bunwiwatthanakan, 32, a Move Forward voter who owns a cat cafe in the northern Thai city of Chiang Rai. “People feel that, since they won the election, their people have a right to form a government.”There is also a possibility that Mr. Pita may not be given the opportunity to stand for renomination on Wednesday. He has said that if it becomes clear Move Forward cannot get him approved as prime minister, the party would allow Pheu Thai to lead the same coalition.The sort of compromises Pheu Thai might be willing to make in order to form its own coalition are unclear. The party, which won the second-largest vote share in the election, was established by Thailand’s most famous politician, the populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been living in exile after being ousted by a coup and accused of corruption. Many of Mr. Thaksin’s populist policies remain popular among Thais.“Pheu Thai’s really in the driver’s seat for deciding the future of Thailand,” in part because the establishment will likely try to dissolve Move Forward, said David Streckfuss, a historian and the author or “Truth on Trial in Thailand.”With the vote on Wednesday unlikely to end with a new government in power, analysts are already looking ahead to a third vote, which could happen as early as Thursday.Winning the premiership requires a simple majority of votes in the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat, military-appointed Senate. Pheu Thai has 141 seats, just 10 less than Move Forward, so it would need conservative parties to cobble together a new coalition.A coalition built by Pheu Thai would likely be led by Srettha Thavisin, 60, a property mogul with little political experience, but who is seen as a more palatable option to the generals than Mr. Pita, the Move Forward candidate. (Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, the youngest daughter of Mr. Thaksin, had been an early front-runner in the general election, but told reporters on Tuesday that the party would support Mr. Srettha as prime minister.)Paetongtarn Shinawatra, right, and Sretta Thavisin, left, accompanied by key members of the Pheu Thai Party at party headquarters in Bangkok, in May.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockTo some Pheu Thai supporters, Move Forward’s tactics, including its refusal to water down its ambitious plans challenging the military and the monarchy, look unworkable in a hierarchical society where pragmatic, palace-friendly parties tend to do best.Pheu Thai cannot deliver on economic priorities if Move Forward leaders “keep complaining about social issues and laws,” Sanpiti Sittipunt, the son of the governor of Bangkok, wrote on Instagram on Tuesday. He added that Move Forward should “listen to the adults.”By defecting from the opposition coalition formed by Move Forward, Pheu Thai could damage its political brand and that of its figurehead, Mr. Thaksin. But the long-term reputational damage might be worth another chance at power, analysts said, particularly if a compromise with the military involved getting permission for Mr. Thaksin to return from exile in Dubai.For now, Pheu Thai is still publicly projecting unity with Move Forward. This week, the two allies and their six smaller partners agreed that Mr. Pita would stand again for the second vote for prime minister on Wednesday.If street protests swell across Thailand after the votes are cast, the fear is that the military would feel compelled to restore order with gunfire, as it did in 2010, or even with a coup, as it did four years later.Any protests would probably only escalate if a military figure became prime minister again, following the lead of the current one, former Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha. Analysts say there is still an outside chance that the conservative establishment could nominate its own candidate for a third vote, such as Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, a top official in the current government.Anti-government protesters gathering at Ratchaprasong Intersection in the commercial center of Bangkok, in 2020.Adam Dean for The New York TimesEvery possible move to break the current political impasse risks creating more problems, said Jatuporn Prompan, a former protest leader and Pheu Thai lawmaker. A prolonged state of limbo without a prime minister could lead to raging demonstrations, followed by a crackdown, and perhaps another coup.“This is why the country’s in a crisis,” he said.Ms. Paetongtarn, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, said that Pheu Thai was eager to get to work on developing the economy and improving the lives of ordinary people. “If we focus on the small picture, it’s one of who’s up and this and that,” she told reporters on Tuesday. “But the country has to move on already.”Muktita Suhartono More