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      4 Takeaways from Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election

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      Recep Tayyip Erdogan is headed for his — and his country’s — first presidential runoff vote. But the first round showed the longtime leader’s continued strength.Turkey’s nail-biter election will go to a runoff, election officials announced on Monday, extending a pivotal vote that has demonstrated that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still a formidable political force, despite his failure to secure a first-round victory.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council said the runoff would be held May 28 after official preliminary results showed that Mr. Erdogan had won 49.5 percent of votes and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 44.9 percent, with nearly all ballots counted. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term.After a tumultuous night during which the rival camps each accused the other of rushing to declare results in advance of official tallies, both sides said early on Monday that they would accept a runoff — and predicted they would prevail.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey failed to win a majority of the vote, setting the stage for a runoff against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesSunday’s voting was closely watched around the world for how it could shape the course of Turkey, an important NATO ally with a wide array of diplomatic and economic ties across continents. Of particular interest was the fate of Mr. Erdogan, who has often flummoxed and frustrated his Western partners, including the United States, and faced growing discontent amid high inflation and the destruction wrought by earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 in southern Turkey.Before the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the results showed Mr. Erdogan’s enduring appeal and influence.Here are some key takeaways:Turkey’s first runoffThis is the first election in Turkey’s history in which no presidential candidate secured a majority in the first round. It opens up a complicated two-week window during which the candidates will go all-out to pull more voters into their camps.Voting in Istanbul on Sunday. Turnout across the country exceeded 88 percent, according to the state-run news agency.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesSunday’s election was the country’s second since a 2017 referendum supported by Mr. Erdogan that changed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Mr. Erdogan won the last two presidential contests, in 2014 and 2018, outright and by significant margins.His inability to do so this time makes clear that he has lost some support.Erdogan has the edgeMr. Erdogan appears to have the edge with his lead over Mr. Kilicdaroglu, just shy of an outright majority. The elimination of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, leaves the 5.7 percent of voters who chose him, many of them from the right, up for grabs. Most, if they participate in a runoff, are likely to opt for Mr. Erdogan.In the run-up to the election, Mr. Erdogan freely tapped state resources to improve his chances, raising civil servant salaries and the national minimum wage and unleashing other government spending in an effort to insulate people from the immediate effects of high inflation. He could deploy more such measures between now and the runoff.Also helping Mr. Erdogan make his case is his party’s strong showing in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, which took place at the same time.Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan outside his campaign headquarters as he spoke there on Monday.Necati Savas/EPA, via ShutterstockPreliminary results suggested that Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies would keep their majority in the 600-seat Parliament. That would allow Mr. Erdogan to argue that he should win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the efficient functioning of the state.For his part, Mr. Kilicdaroglu has predicted that he would prevail in a runoff, telling supporters early Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country.”Turks’ faith in elections remains highThe election council said that turnout on Sunday surpassed 88.9 percent of the 64 million eligible voters in Turkey and overseas. Some endured long lines and returned to quake-destroyed neighborhoods to exercise what many see as a national duty.The turnout figure is far greater than the 66.6 percent turnout in the 2020 presidential election in the United States. But such high numbers are not unusual in Turkey.Some voters endured long lines to exercise what many see as a national duty.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesIn the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, around 85 percent of voters cast ballots. And since 1983, turnout in any election — including for mayors and city councils — has never fallen below 74 percent.Many political scientists don’t consider Turkey a pure democracy, largely because of the tremendous power exercised by the president and his ability to shape the political playing field before the vote.But Turks still take elections very seriously. That includes Mr. Erdogan, who told supporters early Monday that he was prepared to face a runoff.“In my political life, I’ve always respected your decision,” he said. “I expect the same democratic maturity from everyone.”Nationalism appeared to prevailTurkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the ballot box, but Mr. Erdogan’s decision to step up nationalist rhetoric during the campaign appears to have paid off, both for him and for his conservative parliamentary alliance.During the campaign, Mr. Erdogan had a warship dock in central Istanbul for voters to visit. He escalated his criticism of the United States, even claiming on the eve of the elections that President Biden was seeking to topple him.Mr. Erdogan and members of his party also openly accused the opposition of cooperating with terrorists because they received the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or cooperating with Kurdish militants who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades.Mr. Ogan, the candidate in third place, also spoke about prioritizing ways to send home the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition over its Kurdish support. In a runoff, the candidate who more effectively espouses nationalist positions could pick up more of Mr. Ogan’s supporters. More

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      Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff

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      Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longtime incumbent leader, will head to a presidential election runoff for the first time in his career after falling short of the 50 percent needed to win in national elections on Sunday. A map shows election results in all of Turkey’s provinces. The opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu is ahead in the […] More

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      Erdogan Faces Runoff in Turkish Presidential Election

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      ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s presidential election appeared on Sunday to be headed for a runoff after the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, failed to win a majority of the vote, a result that left the longtime leader struggling to stave off the toughest political challenge of his career.The outcome of the vote set the stage for a two-week battle between Mr. Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader, to secure victory in a May 28 runoff that may reshape Turkey’s political landscape.With the unofficial count nearly completed, Mr. Erdogan received 49.4 percent of the vote to Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s 44.8 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency.But both sides claimed to be ahead.“Although the final results are not in yet, we are leading by far,” Mr. Erdogan told supporters gathered outside his party’s headquarters in Ankara, the capital.Speaking at his own party’s headquarters, Mr. Kilicdaroglu said the vote would express the “nation’s will.” He said, “We are here until each and every vote is counted.’’The competing claims came early Monday after a nail-biter evening during which each camp accused the other of announcing misleading information. Mr. Erdogan warned the opposition on Twitter against “usurping the national will” and called on his party faithful “not to leave the polling stations, no matter what, until the results are finalized.”Opposition politicians disputed the preliminary totals reported by Anadolu, saying that their own figures collected directly from polling stations showed Mr. Kilicdaroglu in the lead.At stake is the course of a NATO member that has managed to unsettle many of its Western allies by maintaining warm ties with the Kremlin. One of the world’s 20 largest economies, Turkey has an array of political and economic ties that span Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, and its domestic and foreign policies could shift profoundly depending on who wins.Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday night.Ozan Kose/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe vote was in many ways a referendum on the performance of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.After he became prime minister in 2003, he presided over a period of tremendous economic growth that transformed Turkish cities and lifted millions of Turks out of poverty. Internationally, he was hailed as a new model of a democratic Islamist, one who was pro-business and wanted strong ties with the West.But over the past decade, Mr. Erdogan’s critics grew both at home and abroad. He faced mass protests against his governing style in 2013, and in 2016, two years after he became president, he survived a coup attempt. Along the way, he seized opportunities to sideline rivals and gather more power into his hands, drawing accusations from the political opposition that he was tipping the country into autocracy.Since 2018, a sinking currency and inflation that official figures say exceeded 80 percent last year and was 44 percent last month have eroded the value of Turks’ savings and salaries.Mr. Erdogan’s inability to clinch a victory in the first round of voting on Sunday confirmed a decline in his standing among voters angry with his stewardship of the economy and his consolidation of power. In his last election, in 2018, he won outright against three other candidates with 53 percent of the vote. His closest challenger received 31 percent.On Sunday, one voter, Fatma Cay, said she had supported Mr. Erdogan in the past but did not do so this time, in part because she was angry at how expensive foodstuffs like onions had become.“He has forgotten where he comes from,” said Ms. Cay, 70. “This nation can raise someone up, but we also know how to bring someone down.”Still, she did not flip to Mr. Kilicdaroglu, voting instead for a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who received about 5 percent of the vote. The elimination of Mr. Ogan could give an edge to Mr. Erdogan in the runoff, as Mr. Ogan’s right-wing nationalist followers are more likely to prefer him.Mr. Erdogan remains popular with rural, working class and religious voters, who credit him with developing the country, enhancing its international standing and expanding the rights of devout Muslims in Turkey’s staunchly secular state.“We just love Erdogan,” said Halil Karaaslan, a retiree. “He has built everything: roads, bridges and drones. People are comfortable and in peace.”That, Mr. Karaaslan said, was more important than rising prices. “There is no economic crisis,” he said. “Sure, things are expensive, but salaries are almost as high. It balances.”Seeking to capitalize on voter frustration, a coalition of six opposition parties came together to challenge Mr. Erdogan, backing a joint candidate, Mr. Kilicdaroglu.Kemal Kilicdaroglu represented several opposition parties to mount a challenge to Mr. Erdogan.Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant who ran Turkey’s social security administration before leading Turkey’s largest opposition party, campaigned as the antithesis of Mr. Erdogan. Offering a contrast to Mr. Erdogan’s tough-guy rhetoric, Mr. Kilicdaroglu filmed campaign videos in his modest kitchen, talking about daily issues like the price of onions.Sunday’s vote was also held to determine the makeup of Turkey’s 600-member Parliament, although the results for those seats were not expected until Monday. The Parliament lost significant power when the country changed to a presidential system after a referendum backed by Mr. Erdogan in 2017. The opposition has vowed to return the country to a parliamentary system.Adding to the importance of these elections for many Turks is that 2023 marks the 100th anniversary of the country’s founding as a republic after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A national celebration is scheduled for the anniversary, on Oct. 29, and the president will preside over it.The election was also driven by issues that have long polarized Turkish society, like the proper place for religion in a state committed to strict secularism. In his 11 years as prime minister and nine as president, Mr. Erdogan has expanded religious education and eased rules that restricted religious dress.Derya Akca, 29, cited her desire to cover her hair as a primary reason she supported Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. “They defend my freedom to wear a head scarf, which is the most important factor for me,” said Ms. Akca, who works in an Istanbul clothing store.She recalled being so embarrassed after a college professor humiliated her in front of the class that she quit school, a decision she now regrets. “I felt like an outsider,” she said. “I now wish I had stayed and fought.”But elsewhere in the city, Deniz Deniz, the co-owner of a bar popular with the city’s L.G.B.T.Q. community, bemoaned how the number of such establishments had diminished in the past decade of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure.“I want so much to change,” Mr. Deniz said. “I want a country where LGBT+ folk and women aren’t rejected. I want an egalitarian and democratic country.”Turks casting ballots in Istanbul on Sunday.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesIn Turkey’s southern region, which was devastated by powerful earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people, many voters took out their anger at the government’s response at the ballot box.“We had an earthquake and the government didn’t even intervene,” said Rasim Dayanir, a quake survivor who voted for Mr. Kilicdaroglu. “But our minds were made up before the earthquake.”Mr. Dayanir, 25, had fled the city of Antakya, which was largely destroyed in the quake, but returned with eight family members to vote on Sunday.He stood amid hundreds of voters who had lined up to vote inside of a primary school. Others cast votes in shipping containers that had been set up to replace destroyed polling places. Mr. Dayanir said his uncle, aunt and other members of his family had been killed in the quake.“We are hopeful,” he said. “We believe in change.”Ben Hubbard More

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      Your Monday Briefing: Thailand Votes for Change

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      Also, updates on the Turkish elections.Pita Limjaroenrat is the head of the Move Forward Party and a prime ministerial candidate.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThai voters support changeThai voters overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of two powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted as of early this morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said. “People want change, and not just a change of government. They want structural reform.”What is also clear is that the results are a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who took power in a coup in 2014. Move Forward: The party has targeted mandatory military conscription and seeks to amend a law that criminalizes criticizing the royal family. It has made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and voters in the capital Bangkok.Pheu Thai: The party was founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is still fondly remembered as a champion for the poor after his ousting in a coup in 2006 amid accusations of corruption. Thaksin’s daughter was the leading choice for prime minister, according to polls.What’s next: Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with other parties to establish a coalition. But under the rules of the Thai system, written by the military after the coup, the junta would still play kingmaker. A decision about who will lead could take weeks or even months.Turkey’s election could unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesTurkey’s pivotal electionPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan was facing the fiercest political challenge to his 20 years in power as Turkish voters went to the polls yesterday. The outcome could reshape the domestic and foreign policies of Turkey.The results are still coming in, but the state-run news agency reported that initial results showed Erdogan ahead. Opposition leaders dismissed those figures, and Erdogan’s top challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, wrote on Twitter, “We are leading.”If no candidate secures a majority, the two front-runners would go to a runoff on May 28. Follow our live coverage.Background: The vote was, in many ways, a referendum on Erdogan’s two decades as Turkey’s dominant politician. He faced an extremely tight race, largely because of anger at the state of the economy, which has suffered painful inflation since 2018.The vote also came three months after earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey, raising questions about whether Erdogan’s emphasis on construction produced buildings that were unsafe.Election integrity: Turkey is neither a full-blown democracy nor a full-blown autocracy, and Erdogan has tilted the political playing field in his favor over the past two decades.The war in Ukraine: A defeat for Erdogan would be a boon to the West and a loss for Russia. Erdogan has increased trade with Moscow, pursued closer ties with President Vladimir Putin and hampered NATO’s expansion.Residents surveying the damage from Cyclone Mocha in Kyauktaw, Myanmar, yesterday.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCyclone Mocha makes landfallA storm forecast to be the strongest to hit Myanmar in more than a decade made landfall near the Bangladesh border yesterday. The storm, Cyclone Mocha, has killed at least six people, but early reports suggest that it so far has not led to the humanitarian catastrophe that the authorities feared.The area hit by the cyclone, in western Myanmar, is home to some of the world’s poorest people. The storm passed through Cox’s Bazar, a city in Bangladesh that is home to the world’s largest refugee encampment, though officials said they had not yet received reports of damage there.The World Food Program said it was preparing for a large-scale emergency response. But some officials expressed cautious hope that the region could be spared the storm’s worst possible damage as it weakened over land.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificSupporters of the opposition party celebrating the Karnataka state election results.Aijaz Rahi/Associated PressPrime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party lost the elections in Karnataka, the only state government it held in India’s south.Beijing’s crackdown on companies with foreign ties has spooked some business executives. The country’s focus on bolstering national security may harm its economic growth.China ordered Tesla to recall 1.1 million vehicles over braking risks.A prominent human rights activist in China was sentenced to eight years in prison, after being detained in 2021 for trying to fly to the U.S. to visit his dying wife.The War in UkraineUkraine is making small gains in Bakhmut, but Russia still controls about 90 percent of the city.A Chinese envoy will visit Ukraine and Russia this week in an attempt to negotiate an end to the war.President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Germany’s leaders in Berlin and thanked them for their massive aid package.Some U.S. and European officials say the next phase of the war could create momentum for diplomacy with Russia.Around the WorldThe five-day escalation killed at least 33 people in Gaza and two in Israel.Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/ReutersA cease-fire between Israel and Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip was largely upheld yesterday, aside from a brief exchange of fire.Sweden won this year’s Eurovision Song Contest, which showed European solidarity with Ukraine.Iran released two French citizens who had been accused of spying, which they denied.A Kenyan pastor promised his followers salvation through death by starvation. As of last week, 179 bodies have been exhumed from his property.A Morning ReadConnie Chung, center, is one of the most famous Asian women in the U.S. Connie Aramaki for The New York TimesMany Asian American women are named after Connie Chung, a veteran U.S. television journalist. The writer Connie Wang explored the phenomenon, which she calls “Generation Connie.”“We all have our own stories about how our families came to the United States, and why they chose the name they did,” she wrote. “But we’re also part of a larger story: about the patterns that form from specific immigration policies, and the ripple effects that one woman on TV prompted just by being there, doing her job.”ARTS AND IDEASDurga Mahato was beaten and accused of being a witch.Samyukta Lakshmi for The New York TimesWitch hunting in IndiaFor centuries in India, the branding of witches was driven largely by superstition. A crop would fail, a well would run dry, or a family member would fall ill, and villagers would find someone — almost always a woman — to blame for a misfortune whose cause they did not understand.Many Indian states have passed laws to eradicate witch hunting, but the practice persists in some states. From 2010 to 2021, more than 1,500 people were killed after accusations of witchcraft, according to government data.One state has tried to stop the practice by deploying “witch-hunting prevention campaign teams,” which conduct street plays to raise awareness. But enforcement of anti-witch-hunting laws can be weak, and entrenched beliefs are difficult to change, activists say.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJohnny Miller for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Sue Li.For a luxurious weekday breakfast, make these fluffy banana pancakes.What to WatchIn “The Starling Girl,” a pious teenager begins an affair with her youth pastor.What to Listen toOur editors made a playlist of hot new songs.ExerciseFitness Instagram accounts may do more harm than good. Find ones you can trust.The News QuizHow well did you follow last week’s headlines?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Walnut or chestnut (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Don’t forget to tell us about a song that reminds you of your home. I’ve enjoyed reading your responses.The most recent edition of “The Daily” is on the U.S. debt limit.We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Who Will Win Turkey’s Election? Astrologers Find Answers in the Stars

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      In the weeks leading up to Turkey’s tightest elections in two decades, some of the 64 million eligible voters didn’t look to opinion polls for predictions about the outcome.They turned to astrologers.A few weeks ago, Dincer Guner, a renowned astrologer, carefully examined the birth chart of the Turkish republic (founded Oct. 29, 1923) and those of the presidential candidates. The result, he announced in a YouTube video, was clear: Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leading opposition candidate, would win the presidential vote, ending President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20 years in power.Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s supporters rejoiced. But Mr. Guner is just one among a universe of celebrity astrologers giving forecasts in Turkey. They enjoy large followings on social media, offering hopes of clarity amid the uncertainty of nail-biting election polls, a crippling cost of living crisis and the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and upended millions of lives.Another prominent astrologer, Meral Guven, known for accurately forecasting the national soccer championship, predicted an election win for Mr. Erdogan, saying he would rule Turkey “until the day he dies and even after that.”The election predictions are part of a spiritualism that is common in Turkish society, where people read the future in coffee grounds, consult fortune tellers before major life decisions or visit the purported tombs of ancient mystics to make wishes.Even top politicians seek celestial guidance: Mr. Kilicdaroglu wears a martenitsa, or “wish ribbon,” on his right wrist, to be untied when his wish comes true. When a supporter asked him last month what the wish was, he replied, “This is a secret everybody knows.”Astrology serves as a balm in a country where a powerful government has eroded many people’s sense of control, according to Feyza Akinerdem, a lecturer in sociology at Bogazici University in Istanbul.“Individuals are disempowered by the grip of the state in Turkey,” Mrs. Akinerdem said. “Reliance on astrology is one way to endure the lack of power over one’s own life, particularly in tumultuous times.”Mr. Guner, whose Twitter account has more than 700,000 followers, points to 2018, when Turkey’s currency began to lose value, as the start of a new surge of interest in astrology as people sought financial counsel. “People have been increasingly asking me about where they should invest their savings, whether the exchange rate will go even further,” Mr. Guner said in an interview.“I refrain from precise answers because financial astrology is not my field of expertise,” he added.Mr. Guner must choose his words carefully, especially around politics, given that insulting the president is a criminal offense in Turkey and free media is largely muzzled. Although he predicted a defeat for Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Guner has warned the political opposition against repeating the mistakes of Turkey’s short-lived coalition governments of the 1990s, an era characterized by political bickering and economic troubles, since his readings suggest a similar pattern for the country over the next two years.While the political season has kept him busy, the astrologer said he looked forward to other pressing questions once the elections are over.“I miss people asking me about their love lives,” he said. More

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      An Erdogan Loss in Turkey Would Stir Relief in the West and Anxiety in Moscow

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      European leaders would be delighted to have “an easier Turkey,” while Russia could lose an important economic and diplomatic partnership should the Turkish leader lose power in Sunday’s elections.Sunday’s presidential election in Turkey is being watched carefully in Western capitals, NATO headquarters and the Kremlin, with Turkey’s longtime mediating role in the complex and often vexing relations between the parties riding on the outcome.With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slightly trailing his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in recent polls, the prospect that the Turkish leader could lose the election is concentrating diplomatic minds.Officially, people on the Western side won’t talk about their preferences, to avoid being accused of interfering in Turkey’s domestic politics. But it is an open secret that European leaders, not to speak of the Biden administration, would be delighted if Mr. Erdogan were to lose.As Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, said on Friday, “We all want an easier Turkey,” a strategically important member of NATO that has, under Mr. Erdogan, become an increasingly troublesome partner for the European Union, which has largely abandoned the idea of Turkish membership.Russia, too, has much riding on the election’s outcome. Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has become Russia’s indispensable trading partner and at times a diplomatic intermediary, a relationship that has assumed an even greater importance for the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine.Throughout his 20 years in power, Mr. Erdogan has pursued a nonaligned foreign policy that has frequently frustrated his putative Western allies and provided a welcome diplomatic opening for Moscow — perhaps never more so than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Mr. Erdogan with then-Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2016. It is an open secret that European leaders and the Biden administration would be delighted if the Turkish leader were to lose Sunday’s election.Kayhan Ozer/Turkish Presidential Press ServiceBy refusing to enforce Western sanctions on Moscow, Mr. Erdogan has helped undermine efforts to isolate the Kremlin and starve it of funds to underwrite the war. At the same time, the stumbling Turkish economy has feasted recently on heavily discounted Russian oil, helping Mr. Erdogan in his quest for a third, five-year term. Mr. Erdogan has further irritated his allies by blocking Sweden’s bid for membership in NATO, insisting that Stockholm first turn over scores of Kurdish refugees in the country, especially from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which both Ankara and Washington consider a terrorist organization.More broadly, for the European Union and Washington there is the strong feeling that Turkey under Mr. Erdogan has moved farther away from European values and norms like the rule of law and freedom of the press.Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s prime minister, said in an interview that NATO and the European Union viewed the election differently. It is a defense alliance, she said, and “Turkey is one of the allies that has great military capacities” to help NATO in a key part of the world. “So I don’t think anything changes in terms of NATO in this regard whoever wins the elections.”For NATO, of course, the hope is that a change of leadership in Turkey will end the standoff over approval of Sweden’s membership in the military alliance, ideally before a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July.In Washington, Mr. Erdogan’s drift toward authoritarianism, his ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and his disputes with NATO have exasperated officials — and even led some members of Congress to suggest that Turkey should be banished from the NATO alliance.While the United States, the European Union and, to a lesser extent, NATO stand to gain from an opposition victory, Mr. Putin almost certainly will be seen as the loser if Mr. Erdogan is ousted.Not only has Mr. Erdogan refused to join Western sanctions against Russia and provided a market for its oil and gas, Turkey has also become a source for Moscow of much-needed imports and a crucial link to the global economy amid tightening Western sanctions. The Kremlin also sees in Mr. Erdogan’s often confrontational nationalist rhetoric the potential to disrupt the NATO alliance.For its part, Turkey has benefited not only from cheap Russian energy, but also from Russian investment and revenues from Russian tourism, which have risen since the start of the war. Russia is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant and, since war began, has announced plans to make the country a hub for its natural gas trade.A campaign poster for Mr. Erdogan in Kayseri, Turkey.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe two long-serving leaders also share an authoritarian streak and confrontational rhetoric toward the West, emphasizing historical grievances against other world powers. Mr. Erdogan’s relationship with Mr. Putin has allowed him to play the role of statesman as a mediator for Moscow’s war on Ukraine, most recently by brokering a deal to allow the export of Ukrainian grain.But Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan’s partnership has always been based on mutual self-interest rather than ideological affinity, and the two countries compete for influence in the Caucasus and Middle East. Most notably, the two leaders back different factions in the armed conflicts in Syria and Libya. Relations grew tense after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015.Mr. Erdogan has stopped short of offering Mr. Putin direct support in the war in Ukraine, and his government has angered Moscow by allowing the sale of Turkish armed drones to Kyiv.In another worrying sign for the Kremlin, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader, accused Russia this past week of interfering in the country’s election by spreading “conspiracies, deep fakes and tapes that were exposed in this country yesterday.”That was a reference to an alleged sex tape that surfaced on Thursday, prompting a minor presidential candidate to leave the race.“Get your hands off the Turkish state,” he wrote in Turkish and Russian, though adding: “We are still in favor of cooperation and friendship.”Mr. Kilicdaroglu has promised to maintain economic ties to Russia if he wins the presidency, but it remains unclear whether he would maintain Mr. Erdogan’s delicate balancing act in Ukraine.As an indication of the sensitivity of the situation, when the United States ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, met with Mr. Kilicdaroglu last month, he drew Mr. Erdogan’s ire. Saying that he would no longer meet with Mr. Flake, the Turkish president added, “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this election,” Turkish news media outlets reported.Europe’s leaders, while silently rooting for an Erdogan defeat, are growing concerned about the potential for post-election turmoil, especially if Mr. Erdogan loses narrowly or the election goes to a second-round runoff in two weeks.“It is a watershed election,” Mr. Bildt said. “But democracy is at stake. And my second concern is that we get a result” that means a division of powers — a powerful presidency under Mr. Erdogan and a Turkish Parliament controlled by an unstable opposition coalition.“The risk of constitutional stalemate is quite high,” Mr. Bildt said.Michael Crowley contributed reporting from Washington. More

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      Erdogan Amassed Power in Turkey. He Could Still Lose This Election.

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      Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has tilted the political playing field in his favor over the past two decades, concentrating power in his own hands. Still, he faces a stiff challenge in Sunday’s election.ISTANBUL, Turkey — As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey approaches the toughest election of his career on Sunday, he has marshaled many of the resources of the state to tilt the playing field to his advantage.Mr. Erdogan, who has come to increasingly dominate the country over the past two decades, tapped the Treasury for populist spending programs and has raised the minimum wage three times in the last year and a half. His challenger barely appears on the state broadcaster while Mr. Erdogan’s speeches are aired in full. And this weekend’s vote will be overseen by an election board that, during recent votes, have made questionable calls that benefited the president.And yet, Mr. Erdogan could still lose.Recent polls show him trailing the main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in a tight race that could go to a runoff later this month. But Mr. Erdogan’s grip on the country could also contribute to his undoing, if voters drop him because of his strongman ways and persistently high inflation that has left Turks feeling poorer.“The elections are not fair, but nonetheless they are free, and that is why there is always the prospect of political change in Turkey,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based EDAM research group. “The prospect exists, and is now palpable.”Mr. Erdogan has eroded democratic institutions, stocking the judiciary with loyalists and limiting free expression. His main challenger, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, has vowed to restore democracy if he wins.The close race speaks to Turkey’s complicated character. Political scientists say it is neither a full democracy nor a full-blown autocracy, but rather a mix of the two in which the leader has outsized power but where elections can still bring about change.Turkey has never tipped into full-on autocracy because electoral politics retain a hallowed place in the national identity, one revered by Mr. Erdogan himself. He and his governing Justice and Development Party have regularly trounced their opponents at the ballot box over the years with no indications of foul play, granting Mr. Erdogan a mandate.Turkey’s political ambiguity is also reflected in its global position.During Mr. Erdogan’s tenure, much of Turkish foreign policy has become personally associated with him as he has proved to be a necessary, but problematic — and at times puzzling — partner of the West. He condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sent aid to the Ukrainian government while not only refusing to join Western sanctions on Russia, but also expanding trade ties with, and drawing closer to, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.He has sparred with the United States over Syria policy and disparages Washington in his speeches. He heads a NATO member state but has hampered the alliance’s expansion, delaying Finland’s ability to join and still refusing to accept Sweden.Election posters and flags hang from buildings next to a mosque in Kayseri, Turkey, last month. Predominantly Muslim Turkey is a staunchly secular state.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesAll of that, at times, has left Western leaders wondering whose side he is really on.A change of leadership in Turkey would resonate around the world, given the country’s unique position as a predominantly Muslim society with a staunchly secular state and a vast network of economic and diplomatic ties spanning Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.Mr. Kilicdaroglu has promised that if he wins, he will improve relations with the West and make Turkish foreign policy less personal. But what exactly that would look like is hard to predict: He represents a coalition of six political parties with widely divergent ideologies and his record provides few clues. Before entering politics, he was a civil servant who ran Turkey’s social security administration.After Mr. Erdogan rose to the national stage as prime minister in 2003, he was widely seen as a new model of Islamist democrat, one pro-business and interested in strong ties with the West. During his first decade, Turkey’s economy boomed, lifting millions into the middle class.But more recently — after facing mass street protests against his governing style, becoming president in 2014 and surviving a failed coup attempt in 2016 — he purged his foes from the state bureaucracy, limited civil liberties and centralized power in his hands.People attend a campaign rally for the main challenger of Mr. Erdogan, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in Istanbul on Saturday.Khalil Hamra/Associated PressMr. Erdogan retains a fervent following, particularly among working class, rural and more religious voters, who love his rhetoric about standing up for Turkey against an array of domestic and foreign enemies. He has pushed back against Turkey’s state secularism, expanding Islamic education and changing regulations to allow women in government jobs to wear head scarves.The political opposition says that his consolidation of power has gone too far and portrays Sunday’s vote as a make-it-or-break-it moment for Turkish democracy that could inspire other states struggling with aspiring autocrats.Mr. Erdogan’s advantages are clear, starting with the perks citizens can receive through links to his political party, including state jobs, social support or local services like new roads, analysts said.The president’s use of power for electoral gain has raised questions about how fair these elections really are.“It is more like a hybrid regime, where you have multiparty elections but where the opposition does not enjoy the same opportunities as the government to put their ideas and policies through to voters,” said Ersin Kalaycioglu, a professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul.Mr. Erdogan has extended his sway over the news media. Major news networks are owned by businessmen close to Mr. Erdogan while outlets that criticize his policies are often hounded with fines and lawsuits.A recent analysis of the state-funded broadcaster TRT found that in April, Mr. Kilicdaroglu received only 32 minutes of airtime. Mr. Erdogan got 32 hours.“TRT acts like a public relations firm assigned to run the election campaign of the ruling party and its presidential candidate,” Ilhan Tasci, an opposition party member at the state broadcasting regulator, said in a statement when releasing the data.Shoppers pass election posters at a market in Kayseri, Turkey, in April. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesOverseeing Sunday’s vote is the Supreme Election Council, a panel of judges. For decades, it was widely regarded as independent and trustworthy, but two recent decisions marred its reputation in the eyes of opposition supporters.In 2017, while the votes were being counted in a referendum on changing Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system, the board decided to override the electoral law and include ballots that lacked an official stamp proving their authenticity. The referendum passed by a slim margin, allowing Mr. Erdogan, the president at the time, to greatly expand his powers.In 2019, after an opposition candidate beat Mr. Erdogan’s candidate in the mayor’s race for Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, the council voided the results, citing irregularities, and called for a redo. The same opposition candidate won that, too, by an even larger margin.Those decisions raised questions about the election board’s willingness to rule against Mr. Erdogan’s preferred outcome, said Hasan Sinar, an associate professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul.“On paper, they are neutral,” he said. “But when the government stays in power so long, no one in that position can be neutral anymore.” Any doubt about the electoral board’s neutrality was detrimental to Turkey’s democracy, he added. “This is never supposed to be poisoned by doubt,” he said.In recent weeks, Mr. Erdogan has used his bully pulpit to bludgeon the opposition, warning that the country would suffer under their leadership and accusing them of conspiring with terrorists. Mr. Erdogan’s interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, who oversees the security forces, has gone further, sowing doubts about the results before the vote even begins.Political posters adorn the streets in the city of Kayseri last month.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe election amounted to “a political coup attempt by the West,” Mr. Soylu said last month during a campaign stop. “It is a coup attempt formed by bringing together all of the preparations to purge Turkey.”A few days later, Mr. Soylu said that Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s party was “always open to cheating.”Despite the problems, Turks remain hopeful that Sunday’s poll will express the people’s will. This week, after Mr. Soylu requested that the election board share detailed data about polling places and voter registrations so his ministry could set up its own system to tabulate the vote, the election board pushed back, saying that only it was empowered to count votes.Others noted Mr. Erdogan’s long commitment to electoral politics, hoping that meant he would accept his own loss if it happened.“Turkey has a long tradition of multiparty democracy and a very strong attachment to the integrity of the vote,” said Mr. Ulgen, the director of EDAM. If a clean vote is held, it would probably be respected, even by Mr. Erdogan, he added.But trouble could arise if the results are very close, causing the candidates to contest them or question the process.If the spread is very thin, Mr. Ulgen said, “all options are on the table.”Gulsin Harman More

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      Erdogan’s Election Prospects Take a Hit as a Challenger Drops Out

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      With Turks going to the polls on Sunday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had hoped for a swift victory. But the departure of one challenger is likely to benefit his main competitor.Three days before Turks vote in crucial presidential elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chances of securing a swift victory took a hit on Thursday when one of his challengers left the race, a move likely to benefit Mr. Erdogan’s main competitor.The withdrawal of one of the race’s four contenders also increased the possibility that the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, could obtain a simple majority of votes on Sunday, a win that would suddenly end Mr. Erdogan’s 20-year streak as Turkey’s most prominent politician.The simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections will set the future course for Turkey, a major economy at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and a NATO ally of the United States.Opponents of Mr. Erdogan also view the elections as a make or break moment for Turkish democracy. A win for Mr. Erdogan, they say, would enable a leader who has extended his control over much of the state to gain even more power, whereas a loss could allow for a more democratic future.“That is the real choice we seem to be facing now: going down the road to authoritarianism or switching track and going back to democracy,” said Ersin Kalaycioglu, a professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul.The election could also alter Turkey’s foreign affairs. Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has pursued a nonaligned foreign policy that has unnerved its NATO allies. While Turkey condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has sent aid to the Ukrainian military, Mr. Erdogan has pursued a closer relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.Mr. Erdogan has also hobbled efforts to expand NATO. Although Turkey eventually voted to allow Finland to join the alliance, greatly lengthening its border with Russia, Mr. Erdogan has so far refused to do the same for Sweden. Turkey has accused the Swedes of harboring Turkish terrorists. European officials have countered that Mr. Erdogan appears to be leveraging Turkey’s position in the alliance to settle political scores.Supporters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his party during a rally in Kayseri, last month.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesAt home, Mr. Erdogan’s standing has sunk, primarily because of extremely high inflation that has eaten into family budgets. Many economists attribute the inflation, which exceeded 80 percent last year, to Mr. Erdogan’s ill-advised financial policies.Seeking to unseat Mr. Erdogan is a coalition of six opposition parties that have backed a joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant. Mr. Kilicdaroglu has vowed that if he wins he will undo Mr. Erdogan’s legacy by restoring the independence of state institutions like the central bank in the Foreign Ministry, releasing political prisoners and strengthening democratic norms.Recent polls have suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, which would likely receive a lift from the withdrawal of one of the other candidates on Thursday.That candidate, Muharrem Ince, was predicted to win votes in the single digits, but even that could have been enough to deprive any other candidate of winning a majority, prompting a runoff between the top two vote-getters on May 28.Mr. Ince announced on Thursday that he was withdrawing from the race after sex tapes that supposedly showed him in compromising positions surfaced on social media. Mr. Ince dismissed them as fakes, but withdrew from the race nevertheless. He did not endorse another candidate, but pollsters said voters who would have voted for him were more likely to choose Mr. Kilicdaroglu over Mr. Erdogan.Since the ballots have already been printed, Mr. Ince’s name will still appear at the polls.Muharrem Ince, who dropped out of the election this week, with his supporters in Ankara, in April.Cagla Gurdogan/ReutersAnother candidate, Sinan Ogan, is also in the race, but his support is thought to be negligible.Analysts caution that many Turkish polls have proven unreliable in the past, and that how this one plays out could be surprising. Mr. Erdogan remains popular among a significant share of Turks, who like his nationalist rhetoric, credit him with developing the country or simply have a hard time imagining anyone else in power.Mr. Erdogan has also tapped state resources to increase his chances. In recent months, he has raised the minimum wage, increased civil servant salaries, changed regulations to allow millions of Turks to receive government pensions early and expanded assistance programs for the poor.Marketing himself as a leader who has increased Turkey’s stature on the world stage, he had a Turkish-built warship parked in central Istanbul, became the first owner of Turkey’s first domestically produced electric car and observed, via video link, the first fuel delivery to a Russian-built nuclear plant near the Mediterranean.He and his ministers have attacked the opposition as incompetent, backed by foreign powers and out to undermine family values by expanding L.G.B.T. rights.The opposition has tried to sell voters on the prospect of a brighter future if they win, vowing to tame inflation, restore political rights and move Turkey away from what they consider one-man rule.“This election is very important, and we have to end this autocratic, crazy system,” said Bilge Yilmaz, an economist who oversees economic policy for one of the six opposition parties. “The country deserves better, needs to do better.” More