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      Why the Leaders of Turkey and Thailand Have an Interest in Elections

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      Turkey and Thailand held two huge elections this week, both with uncertain outcomes. Each shows some of the benefits that elections can hold for leaders who have amassed power with the tools of the state.Two important elections happened this week. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to win an outright victory so he now faces a runoff election that could be the most significant political challenge of his career. And in Thailand, ruled by military leaders who took power in a 2014 coup, voters overwhelmingly backed opposition parties, delivering a stinging rebuke to the military establishment. It remains to be seen how much power the junta will actually hand over.Both countries have me thinking about the type of government that is sometimes called a “competitive authoritarian” regime. Their leaders use the tools of state, such as purging foes from the bureaucracy and curtailing civil liberties, to consolidate their own power. But they regularly hold elections, and when they do, the votes are not shams. Voters can cast ballots with the expectation that they will be fairly counted, and that leaders will abide by the result.And yet the fact that those governments embrace elections can tell us something important about the nature of democratic backsliding, and perhaps something even more important about its opposite. Most people call it democratization, but I prefer to think of it, for the sake of verbal and conceptual symmetry, as democratic forwardsliding.Turkey has for years been sliding into a competitive authoritarian government, analysts say. Thailand isn’t one, at least not yet — its military leaders came to power in a coup, not an election — but its vote provides a useful point of comparison.After all, at first blush it’s a little odd that competitive authoritarian leaders hold real elections! In the usual story we tell about democracy, one of elections’ chief virtues is that they allow the public to check leaders’ power. Too much repression, the theory goes, will lead to a reckoning at the ballot box.That doesn’t seem like a prospect that would be popular with leaders who otherwise go to remarkable lengths to dismantle checks and balances. Competitive authoritarians often stack courts with friendly judges, undermine judicial review of their power, weaken legislative branches, jail journalists and try in various ways to stifle opponents.But that view misses out something else that elections can do: validate an authoritarian leader’s power by showing that the public supports the regime. And that validation, it turns out, is valuable enough to outweigh the risks inherent in elections — especially when the incumbent can take steps to manipulate the contest in his favor.In Turkey, Erdogan draws his claim to power, and his justification for his harsh and repressive treatment of the opposition, from public approval, said Turkuler Isiksel, a Columbia University political scientist. Like other populists, he claims to represent the interests of the people. Elections, which provide hard numbers on public support, are a powerful tool to support that claim.And conversely, rejecting election results can damage public support for the regime. Milan Svolik, a Yale political scientist who studies authoritarianism and democratic backsliding, pointed to the example of Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral elections, which were seen as an important test of the popularity of Erdogan’s A.K.P. party. When that contest was initially held, the opposition candidate won by a narrow margin, but the race was invalidated by the courts, leading to public outrage at the perceived refusal to honor the results. When it was re-run a few months later, the opposition candidate won by a landslide — suggesting that for a substantial minority of voters, the failure to respect the initial result was enough to make them abandon Erdogan’s party.“They decided, ‘I’m changing my vote,’” Svolik said. “That suggests a high cost to being perceived as not abiding by the results of an election.” And while such precise natural experiments are rare, Svolik has found similar results when he ran experiments in other countries using hypothetical scenarios of candidates engaging in similar behavior.Which brings me to Thailand. At present, its leaders do not derive their legitimacy from public support — their 2014 coup ousted the democratically elected government by force after an extended period of political unrest.“Thailand is a very divided country that has a conservative establishment that keeps trying to find a way to write a constitution that allows it to win, but can’t do it because it’s not that popular,” said Tom Pepinsky, a Cornell political scientist who studies authoritarianism and democratization with a focus on Southeast Asia. The current government has tried to hedge the results of last weekend’s election by granting Thailand’s military-appointed Senate one-third of the votes to select the prime minister, effectively reserving veto power over any government that doesn’t win a supermajority. But, as Svolik’s research shows, overriding the results of the election risks public backlash.So why hold elections at all?It’s impossible to be sure of the junta members’ true motivations — such personal decisions are, ultimately, unknowable. It may be that the junta members see the risk of losing power in an election as less damaging than what could happen if they held onto power without one.There are real costs to holding power by force, for leaders themselves and their countries. If public outrage has no outlet in elections, that increases the likelihood of mass protests, uprisings, and violence. For years, Thailand has been trapped in a cycle of “protests and putsches,” as my Times colleagues Sui-Lee Wee and Muktita Suhartono memorably described it — a loop that has only increased voters’ anger and support for opposition parties.Such cycles can be difficult to break. In Thailand, “they’re sort of in a coup trap, where the existence of a precedent for military intervention in politics makes people act as if that’s going to be possible, which makes it then possible,” Pepinsky said. “It’s a very bad equilibrium to be in.” Holding an election isn’t always a solution to that problem. Svolik pointed to the example of Myanmar, whose ruling junta cautiously handed over some power after semi-democratic elections in 2015 and 2020, but staged another coup in 2021. But it can still be a way to shift political disputes away from costly and damaging political violence. “Why don’t we just have a battle that’s called an election? It is much less costly,” Svolik said.That has benefits for the public as well as for leaders. Even though the legitimacy conferred by elections can help authoritarian leaders in the short term, Isiksel said, in the longer term it can aid democratization by strengthening democratic institutions, political parties, and the “civic habits” of voting and campaigning.Over time, those can build and reinforce on each other in ways that go beyond elections — a slow and incremental process of forwardsliding toward a more secure democracy.Thank you for being a subscriberRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.I’d love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to interpreter@nytimes.com. You can also follow me on Twitter. More

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      He Lost Turkey’s Presidential Election, but Could Swing the Runoff

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      Seen by some as spoiler but by others as a kingmaker, Sinan Ogan, the far-right candidate who came in third in the vote, says he is being courted by the two finalists: the sitting president and his challenger.ANKARA — As Sinan Ogan tells it, he has suddenly become the most sought-after man in Turkey.The hard-right nationalist and third-place finisher in presidential elections last weekend, Mr. Ogan told The New York Times that he has been fielding calls all week, from cabinet members to opposition leaders and even the office of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They all want the same thing — help wooing his critical swing voters one way or the other in the May 28 runoff between the two front-runners.“Very busy,” Mr. Ogan said at his office in the capital, Ankara, on Tuesday afternoon. “I spent my last three or four days negotiating issues with such high-level people.”Mr. Ogan and other hard-right nationalists made a strong showing in Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary elections, prioritizing national security and the defense of what they consider Turkish identity. In particular, they advocate tough stances on the more than 3.3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.Since the vote, Mr. Ogan’s has been called everything from a spoiler, who blocked the top presidential contenders from an outright victory, to a kingmaker whose supporters may play a role in deciding the runoff. That has given him a sudden clout, evidenced by the flood of calls he says he has received this week.The strong performance of nationalists in these elections will likely pull Turkish government policy further to the right in the years to come, particularly with regards to the country’s Kurdish minority and Syrian refugees.People walking past a banner of Sinan Ogan, who came in third in presidential elections over the weekend, in Istanbul, Turkey on Thursday.Khalil Hamra/Associated PressIn the vote on May 14, Mr. Erdogan won 49.5 percent while his main challenger, the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, took about 44.8 percent. Mr. Ogan won a surprising 5.2 percent.With his comfortable lead in the first round, Mr. Erdogan now looks poised to win the runoff, especially if a good number of Mr. Ogan’s voters throw their support to him. Analysts said they expected more of those voters to choose Mr. Erdogan than his challenger.Mr. Ogan, 55, is a former parliament member and expert on the Caucasus who speaks Russian and earned a doctorate in politics and international relations from a Moscow university.He said he expects to announce his endorsement around Thursday, and assumes that 70 percent of his supporters would follow his recommendation. But political analysts are less sure, noting that Mr. Ogan lacks a powerful party apparatus to corral voters. And many of his supporters may have chosen him to protest the top contenders, and could skip the runoff.Mr. Ogan said he has demands in exchange for throwing his support to a candidate, all of them aimed at promoting nationalist causes. For one, he wants a scheduled plan to deport the refugees from many countries, including Syria and Afghanistan. And in exchange for endorsing a candidate, he also wants a very senior post in the new administration to see his demands through.“Why would I be a minister when I can be vice president?” he said.He declined to say whether he was leaning toward a particular candidate.He said he admired Mr. Erdogan’s work ethic, but also criticized him for not consulting enough with others before making decisions. Mr. Kilicdarolu, he said, was not as hard working but widely solicited others’ opinions.The opposition camp, overlapping with the far right on some issues, including the desire to send the Syrian refugees home, could step up efforts to sway nationalist voters before the runoff.Idris Sahin, an official with DEVA, one of the opposition parties backing Mr. Kilicdaroglu, said his party had done a “sociological study” of Mr. Ogan’s voters and would soon launch a campaign targeting them.On Wednesday, Mr. Kilicdaroglu released a campaign video attacking Mr. Erdogan and his party with harsh nationalist rhetoric.“The border is honor,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu said, referring to the president’s allowing millions of refugees from Syria and elsewhere to settle in Turkey. He called the refugees an “unruly flood of people flowing into our veins every day” and warned that their number would increase and “threaten our survival!”Mr. Ogan would not answer directly when asked whether he had spoken with Mr. Erdogan about a possible endorsement. Officials from Mr. Erdogan’s party and the opposition have not spoken publicly about any negotiations with Mr. Ogan.“I talk to everyone,” he said.Among Mr. Ogan’s other demands, he said he doesn’t want any political party that he considers connected to terrorism — a term the government often uses to refer to Kurdish militants — to have any role in the government.He mentioned two parties specifically: the Free Cause Party, a hard-line Islamist party allied with Mr. Erdogan, and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or H.D.P., which supported Mr. Kilicdaroglu.The first grew out of an underground Islamist organization known for murdering journalists, intellectuals and others in previous decades. The party’s current leaders say they reject violence.Turkey has fought a yearslong and deadly battle against Kurdish militants and the government often accuses the H.D.P. of cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Turkey, the United States and the European Union all consider a terrorist organization. H.D.P. leaders deny that accusation and say they condemn violence.Mr. Ogan credited his campaign with elevating nationalist causes during the election and hard-right factions also fared well in parliamentary elections. In particular, Mr. Erdogan’s strongest allies in Parliament, the Nationalist Movement Party, performed better than expected.“We blew a very nationalist wind into the field,” Mr. Ogan said.But analysts said it was more likely that such sentiments were already rising among the electorate and Mr. Ogan just happened to catch the wave.Gulsin Harman More

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      Turkey’s President Fights for Political Survival

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      Rob Szypko, Rachelle Bonja, Michael Simon Johnson and Lisa Chow and Diane Wong and For two decades, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has loomed large over Turkish politics. But skyrocketing inflation and a devastating earthquake have eroded his power and, in a presidential election over the weekend, he was forced into a runoff.Ben Hubbard, The Times’s Istanbul bureau chief, discusses how Turkey’s troubles have made Mr. Erdogan politically vulnerable.On today’s episodeBen Hubbard, the Istanbul bureau chief for The New York Times.A crowd with a banner of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, the Turkish capital, on Monday. Mr. Erdogan still leads his closest challenger by a comfortable margin heading into the runoff.Necati Savas/EPA, via ShutterstockBackground readingDespite the headwinds, Mr. Erdogan appears to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term. Here’s what to know.The election suggested that even if Mr. Erdogan’s grip on power has been loosened, it has not yet broken.There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Ben Hubbard More

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      Turkey’s Opposition Struggles to Make Up Ground as Runoff Nears

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      President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks likely to take most of the votes that went to an ultranationalist candidate eliminated in the first round.After heading into elections with high hopes, Turkey’s political opposition is struggling to fight off despair and plot a course to give their candidate a fighting chance against the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a runoff later this month.While Mr. Erdogan, bidding for a third five-year presidential term, failed to win a simple majority in Sunday’s election, he still led the opposition by a margin of about five percentage points. That, and a number of other indications, point to a win for the president in the second round on May 28.Importantly, Mr. Erdogan looks likely to be the primary beneficiary of votes from supporters of an ultranationalist third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who has been eliminated despite a surprisingly strong showing over the weekend. The first-round results pointed to growing nationalist sentiment across the electorate that will probably boost the president.All of that amounts to an uphill battle for the challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party coalition that came together with the goals of unseating Mr. Erdogan, restoring Turkish democracy, righting the economy and smoothing over frazzled relations with the West.“Obviously, it is difficult,” said Can Selcuki, the director of the Turkey Report, which publishes polls and political analysis.Sinan Ogan, an ultranationalist candidate, in Ankara this month. Despite being eliminated after Sunday’s vote, he made a surprisingly strong showing.Burhan Ozbilici/Associated PressMr. Selcuki, who had predicted a stronger showing by the opposition, said that the coalition now appeared to have at least two options: find a way to increase turnout among supportive voters and adopt a more nationalist tone that might attract crossover votes.So far, opposition leaders have publicly said very little about how they might modify their campaign before the runoff.“I am here, I am here,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the opposition candidate, said in a video posted on Twitter on Monday that showed him uncharacteristically banging on a desk. “I swear I will fight to the end.”In another post on Tuesday, he tried to rally younger voters, cautioning that a win by his opponent would lead to “a bottomless darkness.”Still, the math does not appear to be in his favor.Mr. Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the vote, versus 44.9 percent for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, according to the Turkish electoral authority. The third candidate, Mr. Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters seem more likely to opt for Mr. Erdogan in the runoff.Going into the first round, most polls indicated a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, but since the results came out, analysts have tried to explain why the opposition performed worse than expected.The six parties that backed Mr. Kilicdaroglu represent a disparate range of backgrounds and ideologies, including nationalists, staunch secularists and even Islamists who had defected from Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party.While their primary unifying goal was to unseat Mr. Erdogan, they tried to sell voters on a different vision for Turkey’s future. That included restoring the independence of state institutions such as the Foreign Ministry and the central bank; a return to orthodox financial policies aimed at taming painfully high inflation and enticing foreign investors; and the strengthening of civil liberties, including freedom of expression and of association, which Mr. Erdogan has limited.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the vote versus 44.9 percent for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, according to the Turkish electoral authority.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan mounted a campaign that linked him in voters’ minds to Turkey’s increasing military might and independence. In interviews, many pro-Erdogan voters expressed admiration for Turkey’s defense industry, particularly its drones, which have played key roles in a number of conflicts, including in Ukraine and in Ethiopia.He also demonized the opposition, associating them with terrorism. This line of attack capitalized on the support that Mr. Kilicdaroglu has received from Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party, the country’s third-largest. The government has accused that party’s officials and members of cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K., which it has designated a terrorist organization.At campaign rallies, Mr. Erdogan even showed a video that had been manipulated to make it look as if a P.K.K. leader was clapping along with one of Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s campaign songs.Turkey has fought a long and deadly battle against Kurdish militants, and the government often accuses Kurdish politicians of cooperating with them. Many Kurdish politicians have been jailed, prosecuted or removed from office because of such allegations.The overall results of Sunday’s vote, including for the Turkish Parliament, amounted to a strong showing by right-wing nationalists. The Nationalist Movement Party, Mr. Erdogan’s strongest ally in Parliament, increased its share, and Mr. Ogan did much better than polls had predicted.Those candidates emphasize Turkish identity and national security, demonize the Kurds and call for the more than three million Syrian refugees in Turkey to be sent home. All appear to have benefited from Mr. Erdogan’s warnings about terrorism.In the runoff on May 28, Mr. Erdogan looks likely to be the primary beneficiary of votes from supporters of Mr. Ogan.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesAt the same time, some of the smaller parties that Mr. Kilicdaroglu brought into his coalition failed to mobilize significant numbers of voters.In his message aimed at Turkey’s younger voters on Tuesday, Mr. Kilicdaroglu returned to the state of the country’s economy, focusing on how inflation, which exceeded 80 percent last year, had eroded the value of people’s incomes.“You don’t have money for anything. You have to do calculations for a cup of coffee,” he wrote. “Yet youth means being carefree. They didn’t allow you to have that for even a day.”He also returned to the opposition’s central theme, the effort to remove Mr. Erdogan and reverse his tilt toward authoritarian rule.“Those who want change in this country are more than those who don’t want it,” he wrote. “But this is clear: we are the side that needs to fight harder to get rid of such a tyrant government.” More

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      Elección en Turquía: Erdogan podría volver a ganar

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      A pesar de una economía en dificultades, los terremotos de febrero y la deriva de Turquía hacia un gobierno unipersonal, el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan se situó en cabeza antes de la segunda vuelta.ANKARA, Turquía — El aumento de la inflación empobreció a su pueblo. Su gobierno fue acusado de negligencia en su respuesta a los catastróficos terremotos en los que murieron más de 50.000 personas hace solo tres meses. Y se enfrentaba a una oposición recientemente unificada que prometía abandonar su tendencia constante hacia el gobierno unipersonal.A pesar de todo eso, el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan se impuso a su principal rival en las elecciones turcas, según los resultados oficiales publicados el lunes. Aunque no alcanzó la mayoría absoluta, por lo que el país celebrará una segunda vuelta el 28 de mayo, hay indicios claros de que Erdogan volverá a ganar las elecciones.“Para Erdogan, este es su gran final”, dijo Mehmet Ali Kulat, un destacado encuestador turco que había previsto una victoria más contundente de la oposición.Con casi todas las papeletas escrutadas el lunes, los resultados preliminares oficiales le daban a Erdogan el 49,5 por ciento de los votos frente al 44,9 por ciento de Kemal Kilicdaroglu, su principal rival y líder de la oposición. Un tercer candidato, Sinan Ogan, obtuvo el 5,2 por ciento, y sus partidarios de derecha tienen más probabilidades de votar por Erdogan en la segunda vuelta, según los analistas. Por último, el partido de Erdogan y sus aliados preservaron su mayoría dominante en la votación parlamentaria, lo que probablemente aumenta sus posibilidades de ser reelegido.Pero el hecho de que Erdogan no haya podido obtener más del 50 por ciento de los votos —incluso después de haber utilizado muchos de los recursos del poder para inclinar la balanza de las elecciones a su favor— indica que algunos votantes se han cansado de su gestión financiera y de la drástica consolidación del poder en sus manos.Recuento de votos en Estambul, el domingoSergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesMuchos medios de comunicación turcos son propiedad de empresarios que apoyan a Erdogan, lo que le ha garantizado un flujo constante de cobertura positiva y poca atención a las acusaciones de corrupción o los errores de la gestión. El gobierno ha hecho que algunas organizaciones de noticias críticas tengan que cerrar, ha multado a otras por su cobertura y procesó a algunos periodistas. La organización Reporteros sin Fronteras clasifica a Turquía en el puesto 165 en cuanto a libertad de prensa, de los 180 países que califica.La oposición no reconoció oficialmente el liderazgo de Erdogan ni impugnó las cifras, pero afirmó que trabajará para ganar la segunda vuelta.“Nos levantaremos y ganaremos juntos estas elecciones”, escribió Kilicdaroglu en Twitter el lunes. “Al final solo será lo que diga nuestra nación”.En sus 20 años como líder político dominante de Turquía, primero como primer ministro y luego como presidente, Erdogan y su Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo han derrotado de manera regular a sus oponentes en las urnas. La última vez que Erdogan participó en las elecciones fue en 2018, y obtuvo el 52 por ciento de los votos en la primera vuelta, superando al más cercano de sus tres contrincantes por 22 puntos porcentuales. Esta vez le fue peor, lo que provocó la primera segunda vuelta presidencial en la historia de Turquía.El domingo, la participación electoral en todo el país fue de casi el 89 por ciento, lo que subraya la gran fe de los turcos en las elecciones.Erdogan enfrentó una considerable resistencia antes de la votación.Desde 2018, Turquía ha estado luchando con una moneda que se hunde y una dolorosa inflación que superó el 80 por ciento anual el año pasado y en abril se situó en el 44 por ciento.Las cifras publicadas en un local de cambio de divisas en Estambul reflejan la fuerte caída de la lira turca, lo que ha disparado la inflación.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesSus oponentes se unieron en una coalición sin precedentes de seis partidos que respaldaron a Kilicdaroglu. A lo largo de la campaña, la oposición cortejó a los votantes prometiendo arreglar la economía, restablecer las libertades civiles y construir una sociedad más integradora, en marcado contraste con la retórica polarizante de Erdogan.Pero no fue suficiente.Los analistas describieron los resultados como el último ejemplo de las formidables habilidades de supervivencia de Erdogan.Kulat dijo que los terremotos del 6 de febrero ayudaron a Erdogan de forma inesperada. La vasta destrucción no solo dejó a un gran número de personas sin hogar, sino que presionó a las comunidades cercanas a la zona afectada al aumentar los precios de los alquileres. Esto aumentó el atractivo de las promesas electorales de Erdogan de construir nuevas viviendas en la zona afectada por el terremoto en el plazo de un año.“Los ciudadanos dijeron: ‘Si alguien puede construirme una casa, es Erdogan’”, dijo Kulat.Pero el mandatario también utilizó su poder para inclinar la campaña a su favor. Y como presidente en funciones en un sistema con pocos controles del poder presidencial, Erdogan utilizó de manera eficaz al Estado como parte de su campaña al repartir nuevos beneficios para los votantes usando los recursos de las arcas nacionales.Erdogan hizo campaña tachando a sus oponentes de incompetentes, diciendo que los apoya una conspiración occidental y que eran cómplices de terroristas. También buscó oportunidades para vincularse en la mente de los votantes con imágenes del creciente poderío e independencia turcos, aparcando un buque de guerra en el centro de Estambul para que lo visitaran las familias y convirtiéndose en el primer propietario de un coche eléctrico fabricado en Turquía.Rescatistas sobre los escombros dejados por los terremotos que mataron a decenas de miles de personas, en Kahramanmaras, Turquía, en febrero.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesTanto él como sus ministros lo presentan como el defensor de los turcos religiosos, avivando sus temores al decirles que la oposición pretendía arrebatarles sus nuevas libertades y ampliar los derechos de las personas homosexuales. Aunque Turquía es una sociedad predominantemente musulmana, se fundó como un Estado firmemente laico que mantenía fuera de la vida pública a la mayoría de los signos externos de la religión. Erdogan flexibilizó algunas de esas normas, incluida la prohibición de que las mujeres que ocupan cargos públicos usen pañuelos en la cabeza.Parece que estos temas han convencido a un número suficiente de votantes como para que Erdogan lidere la contienda.“La identificación política es muy ‘pegajosa’ y no se deshace fácilmente debido a nueva información o experiencia”, escribió en un correo electrónico Howard Eissenstat, profesor asociado de historia en la Universidad de St. Lawrence. “El énfasis de Erdogan en el nacionalismo, el terrorismo y los nefastos complots occidentales no es algo menor para muchos votantes: es el núcleo de su visión del mundo”.En contraste con lo que Erdogan podía ofrecer a los votantes, la oposición solo podía ofrecer promesas.Para conseguir su apoyo, Kilicdaroglu reunió a seis partidos que incluían a nacionalistas de derecha, laicos acérrimos e islamistas, lo que es visto como una hazaña. Pero muchos votantes se preguntaron cómo una coalición tan amplia podría mantenerse unida, y mucho menos dirigir el país.“A pesar de la frustración por la economía y los efectos de los terremotos, mucha gente no creía que una coalición de la oposición —especialmente una con divisiones ideológicas internas y luchas personales por el poder— pudiera gobernar con eficacia”, dijo Lisel Hintz, profesora adjunta de relaciones internacionales en la Escuela de Estudios Internacionales Avanzados de la Universidad Johns Hopkins.Según Hintz, el hecho de que Kilicdaroglu pertenezca a una minoría religiosa probablemente también haya desanimado a algunos votantes. Es aleví, miembro de una secta musulmana heterodoxa que es mal vista por algunos miembros de la mayoría musulmana suní de Turquía.“Es probable que algunos suníes no quieran votar por un aleví”, dijo Hintz.El principal aspirante de la oposición, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, tras votar el domingo en la capital, Ankara.Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAunque ningún votante entrevistado en las últimas semanas expresó abiertamente esos sentimientos, muchos expresaron su preocupación por otro grupo minoritario, criticando a la oposición por trabajar con el principal partido a favor de los kurdos de Turquía y comparando esa decisión con establecer una alianza con terroristas.Turquía ha librado una larga y mortal batalla contra los militantes kurdos que son considerados terroristas por el gobierno turco, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea. Además, las autoridades turcas suelen acusar a los políticos kurdos de cooperar con los militantes, y muchos de ellos han sido encarcelados, procesados o destituidos por esas acusaciones.Erdogan ha jugado con el temor sobre esos vínculos, y muchos votantes consideran que la oposición simpatiza con esa militancia.“Me preocupa que gane el otro bando y que eso sea malo para el país”, dijo Melike Kurt, recién licenciada, tras votar a Erdogan el domingo. En concreto, mencionó su preocupación porque se pusiera en libertad a personas encarceladas por cargos relacionados con el terrorismo.Como mujer devota que usa un pañuelo en la cabeza, también elogió a Erdogan por defender que las mujeres como ella pudieran vestir como quisieran, y le preocupaba que un gobierno de la oposición anulara esos derechos en nombre del laicismo estatal.“No puedo imaginarme en qué situación estaríamos si perdiéramos”, dijo Kurt, de 24 años. “Creo que nuestras libertades se verían limitadas si ganan, en lo que respecta a los pañuelos en la cabeza y otros temas”.Safak Timur More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: A Runoff in Turkey

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      Also, Thailand’s opposition parties agreed to form a coalition.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has concentrated power in his own hands over the past two decades.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesTurkey’s election heads to a runoffPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure a first-round victory in Turkey’s presidential election and will now face a runoff on May 28. Still, he seems well positioned to win another five-year term.Preliminary results showed that Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the votes on Sunday, ahead of his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who got 44.9 percent. The right-wing supporters of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who was knocked out of the race, are more likely to vote for Erdogan in the runoff, increasing his chances of winning.Erdogan’s party and its allies also maintained a commanding majority in Parliament during elections for those seats, which were also held on Sunday. That probably further increases Erdogan’s ability to be re-elected.But the fact that Erdogan could not win a majority — even after he tilted the playing field to his advantage by using state resources for his campaign and relying on sympathetic media — indicates that some voters are frustrated with his financial management and consolidation of power.Lost ground: Preliminary results showed that, compared with the 2018 presidential election, almost every part of the country shifted against Erdogan. Some of the sharpest rebukes came from the provinces around Turkey’s two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara.Analysis: Experts described the results as just the latest example of Erdogan’s formidable survival skills.Pita Limjaroenrat, in the white shirt, greeted supporters in Bangkok yesterday.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockThai opposition agrees to form coalitionThailand’s two opposition parties said yesterday that they would work together to form a coalition government after they won a clear majority in the general election over the weekend. But it remains unclear if the junta will hand over power easily.Pita Limjaroenrat, the head of the progressive Move Forward Party, led the effort to build a coalition and could become prime minister. He said he was not concerned about opposition from the military-appointed Senate, which could still block his nomination. “I don’t think the people of Thailand would allow that to happen,” he said.But if history is any indicator, the military is unlikely to relinquish power quickly. Generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would determine the next prime minister. Analysts said any effort to block Pita from leading the country would most likely set off protests.Quotable: “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds,” an expert said. “If Pita cannot be prime minister, and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”Several small Chinese mining companies have sought in recent years to mine gold from the Central African Republic.ReutersChinese workers face threats abroadIn March, a group of gunmen stormed a remote mine in the Central African Republic and killed nine Chinese workers there. The attack, and others like it, raise questions about China’s ability to protect its citizens overseas.The C.A.R. government blamed a rebel group for the attack; the rebels blamed Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, which, in turn, accused the rebels. No side has presented evidence. Only four government soldiers were protecting the site, though more than a dozen were supposed to have been there, a diplomat said. All four survived.The murkiness has underscored a growing security challenge facing Beijing as Chinese companies expand. Often, they do business in the middle of conflict zones with limited protection. Chinese security frequently relies on a patchwork of local military personnel, mercenaries and private firms to protect Chinese workers.Quotable: “China is on thin ice in the sense that they’re entering some of the most poorly governed places in the world and supercharging conflicts,” an expert in Chinese development finance said. “And every time an attack happens, it angers the Chinese public and forces China to reconsider this light-touch, hands-off approach.”THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificPeople in Rohingya refugee camps were hit particularly hard by the storm.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees are homeless after Cyclone Mocha hit Myanmar and Bangladesh.China sentenced a 78-year-old U.S. citizen to life in prison for espionage.One of Japan’s top entertainment production companies issued an apology over sexual assault claims against its late founder.Cambodia’s ruling party is poised to run virtually unopposed in July after the election commission disqualified the main opposition party, Reuters reports.Around the WorldFor the first time, the U.N. commemorated the mass displacement of Palestinians in the wars surrounding the creation of Israel 75 years ago.The E.U. approved Microsoft’s $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard, after U.S. and British regulators both moved to block the deal.Despite fears of a sudden stampede at the U.S.-Mexico border after a pandemic-era policy ended, the area remained relatively quiet.Vice Media filed for bankruptcy. A group of lenders is in a position to acquire the company.The War in UkrainePrime Minister Rishi Sunak met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in England yesterday.Pool photo by Carl CourtBritain promised a large package of missiles and attack drones to Ukraine as President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a visit.Ukraine made further advances around Bakhmut, the country’s deputy defense minister said.Ukrainians are writing angry messages to Russia on the sides of rockets, mortar shells and exploding drones.A Morning ReadBalendra Shah, who is popularly known as Balen Shah, greeting constituents.Saumya Khandelwal for The New York TimesBefore he became the mayor of Kathmandu, Balendra Shah was a rap star who pursued a degree in engineering. His electoral success has inspired a wave of young candidates across Nepal to take on a political class perceived as corrupt and incompetent, and dominated by men in their late 60s and 70s who have held office for decades.ARTS AND IDEASPatricia Moreira/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA Cannes previewFor cinephiles, there is no holier pilgrimage than the Cannes Film Festival, which begins today.It is a place where great auteurs have been canonized, like Martin Scorsese, who returns this year with a new feature, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and Wes Anderson, who will present his ensemble comedy “Asteroid City.” These are the festival’s most anticipated premieres.Opening the festival is the period drama “Jeanne du Barry,” starring Johnny Depp as King Louis XV of France. But movies aren’t the only thing to watch during Cannes. The film festival will also make red carpet waves.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Have an air fryer? Make this flavorful chicken breast.What to ReadIn Emma Cline’s latest, “The Guest,” the heroine is a call girl on the run.What to Watch“Monica” is about a transgender woman who is introduced as a stranger to care for her dying mother.What to PlayI wrote about the global sports craze that is padel.Mental HealthThere are ways to ease postpartum depression.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tear to pieces (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. Our publisher, A.G. Sulzberger, wrote about independence as an essential journalistic value in Columbia Journalism Review.“The Daily” is about banned spyware.Send us your feedback at briefing@nytimes.com. Thanks for writing. More

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      4 Takeaways from Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election

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      Recep Tayyip Erdogan is headed for his — and his country’s — first presidential runoff vote. But the first round showed the longtime leader’s continued strength.Turkey’s nail-biter election will go to a runoff, election officials announced on Monday, extending a pivotal vote that has demonstrated that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still a formidable political force, despite his failure to secure a first-round victory.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council said the runoff would be held May 28 after official preliminary results showed that Mr. Erdogan had won 49.5 percent of votes and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 44.9 percent, with nearly all ballots counted. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term.After a tumultuous night during which the rival camps each accused the other of rushing to declare results in advance of official tallies, both sides said early on Monday that they would accept a runoff — and predicted they would prevail.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey failed to win a majority of the vote, setting the stage for a runoff against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesSunday’s voting was closely watched around the world for how it could shape the course of Turkey, an important NATO ally with a wide array of diplomatic and economic ties across continents. Of particular interest was the fate of Mr. Erdogan, who has often flummoxed and frustrated his Western partners, including the United States, and faced growing discontent amid high inflation and the destruction wrought by earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 in southern Turkey.Before the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the results showed Mr. Erdogan’s enduring appeal and influence.Here are some key takeaways:Turkey’s first runoffThis is the first election in Turkey’s history in which no presidential candidate secured a majority in the first round. It opens up a complicated two-week window during which the candidates will go all-out to pull more voters into their camps.Voting in Istanbul on Sunday. Turnout across the country exceeded 88 percent, according to the state-run news agency.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesSunday’s election was the country’s second since a 2017 referendum supported by Mr. Erdogan that changed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Mr. Erdogan won the last two presidential contests, in 2014 and 2018, outright and by significant margins.His inability to do so this time makes clear that he has lost some support.Erdogan has the edgeMr. Erdogan appears to have the edge with his lead over Mr. Kilicdaroglu, just shy of an outright majority. The elimination of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, leaves the 5.7 percent of voters who chose him, many of them from the right, up for grabs. Most, if they participate in a runoff, are likely to opt for Mr. Erdogan.In the run-up to the election, Mr. Erdogan freely tapped state resources to improve his chances, raising civil servant salaries and the national minimum wage and unleashing other government spending in an effort to insulate people from the immediate effects of high inflation. He could deploy more such measures between now and the runoff.Also helping Mr. Erdogan make his case is his party’s strong showing in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, which took place at the same time.Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan outside his campaign headquarters as he spoke there on Monday.Necati Savas/EPA, via ShutterstockPreliminary results suggested that Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies would keep their majority in the 600-seat Parliament. That would allow Mr. Erdogan to argue that he should win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the efficient functioning of the state.For his part, Mr. Kilicdaroglu has predicted that he would prevail in a runoff, telling supporters early Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country.”Turks’ faith in elections remains highThe election council said that turnout on Sunday surpassed 88.9 percent of the 64 million eligible voters in Turkey and overseas. Some endured long lines and returned to quake-destroyed neighborhoods to exercise what many see as a national duty.The turnout figure is far greater than the 66.6 percent turnout in the 2020 presidential election in the United States. But such high numbers are not unusual in Turkey.Some voters endured long lines to exercise what many see as a national duty.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesIn the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, around 85 percent of voters cast ballots. And since 1983, turnout in any election — including for mayors and city councils — has never fallen below 74 percent.Many political scientists don’t consider Turkey a pure democracy, largely because of the tremendous power exercised by the president and his ability to shape the political playing field before the vote.But Turks still take elections very seriously. That includes Mr. Erdogan, who told supporters early Monday that he was prepared to face a runoff.“In my political life, I’ve always respected your decision,” he said. “I expect the same democratic maturity from everyone.”Nationalism appeared to prevailTurkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the ballot box, but Mr. Erdogan’s decision to step up nationalist rhetoric during the campaign appears to have paid off, both for him and for his conservative parliamentary alliance.During the campaign, Mr. Erdogan had a warship dock in central Istanbul for voters to visit. He escalated his criticism of the United States, even claiming on the eve of the elections that President Biden was seeking to topple him.Mr. Erdogan and members of his party also openly accused the opposition of cooperating with terrorists because they received the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or cooperating with Kurdish militants who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades.Mr. Ogan, the candidate in third place, also spoke about prioritizing ways to send home the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition over its Kurdish support. In a runoff, the candidate who more effectively espouses nationalist positions could pick up more of Mr. Ogan’s supporters. More

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      Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff

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      Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longtime incumbent leader, will head to a presidential election runoff for the first time in his career after falling short of the 50 percent needed to win in national elections on Sunday. A map shows election results in all of Turkey’s provinces. The opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu is ahead in the […] More