At least seven candidates appear to have made the cut so far for the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23.
Trump(may not
attend)
Trump(may not
attend)
The latest polling and fund-raising data show that the playing field is narrowing for the Republican presidential debate scheduled for later this month. Although former President Donald J. Trump is the clear front-runner in polling, the debate stage in Milwaukee could be an opportunity for other candidates to make an impression.
To participate, each candidate must first satisfy fund-raising and polling criteria set by the Republican National Committee. Financially, they each need 40,000 campaign donors, including at least 200 donors from 20 states. And they need support from 1 percent of Republican voters in three national polls, or in two national polls and two polls in the early primary states. These polls must meet R.N.C. standards, which have substantially limited the number of surveys that could count toward this number. The R.N.C. did not respond to questions about the polling criteria.
Where Each Candidate Stands
Met goal according to Times analysis | |
Met goal according to the campaign |
Candidate | Donors | States with 200 donors | Polling level met |
|---|---|---|---|
Trump Former president and businessman | >350,000 | 50 |
|
DeSantis Governor of Florida | |||
Scott Senator from South Carolina | 35-45,000 | 35-40 |
|
Haley Former governor and U.N. ambassador | 35-45,000 | 35-40 |
|
Ramaswamy Entrepreneur and author | 35-45,000 | 35-40 |
|
Christie Former governor of New Jersey |
| 30-35 |
|
Burgum Governor of North Dakota | |||
Pence Former vice president | About 3,000 | <5 | |
Hutchinson Former governor of Arkansas | About 4,000 | <5 | Uncertain |
Elder Conservative talk radio host | About 2,500 | <5 | No |
Suarez Mayor of Miami | About 1,000 | <5 | No |
Hurd Former congressman from Texas | Less than 500 | <5 | No |
Note: Donor data is as of June 30.
Candidates have until Aug. 21 to meet the requirements, according to the committee. If they do, they will also need to sign a pledge to follow several R.N.C. guidelines, including a promise to support the eventual Republican nominee.
For several candidates, the threshold of 40,000 individual donors has proved particularly challenging. Mr. Pence has easily surpassed polling requirements, but at the end of June he had yet to reach even half of the required number of donors.
Others, including Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur, offered financial incentives to donors to try to reach their goals. After offering donors $20 gift cards for $1 donations, Mr. Burgum said on July 19 that he qualified for the debate financially. Candidates’ financial reports for July will not be filed with the Federal Election Commission until later this fall, after the first scheduled debate.
Mr. Trump eclipses all other candidates by a wide margin in his number of campaign donors. His fund-raising has surged after each of his first two indictments.
Total individual donors to each campaign
Source: Federal Election Commission
Notes: Data is as of June 30. The number of unique donors is approximate.
But even though Mr. Trump is clearly the dominant Republican candidate so far, he has remained noncommittal about attending the debate and questioned his need to share the stage with candidates who lag far behind him in the polls.
Other candidates who have met the R.N.C.’s polling and financial criteria have already said they would attend the debate, though some had not said whether they would sign the required pledge to support the eventual nominee.
As for the remaining hopefuls, they have three weeks left to scrape together the necessary donors and polling support.
Methodology
To estimate whether candidates have met the donor requirements for debate qualification, The Times analyzed campaign finance reports filed to the Federal Election Commission. These reports cover the period from the beginning of this year through June 30. Data includes individual donations reported by campaigns to the Commission as well as those made through WinRed, an online fund-raising platform that processes donations for Republican candidates. The Times calculated the approximate number of individual donors based on the name and ZIP code of the donor. Doug Burgum and Chris Christie announced in July that they met the financial requirements to debate. The Times is currently unable to confirm the number of online donations via the WinRed platform for Ron DeSantis, though a spokesman confirmed to The Times he had met the requirements.
To estimate whether candidates have met the polling requirements, The Times analyzed Republican primary polls collected by FiveThirtyEight as of Aug. 1. The R.N.C. has not shared a full list of qualifying polls. The Times included the following surveys that appear to have met the R.N.C. criteria: three weekly Morning Consult surveys, a Times/Siena College poll, and one poll each from JMC Analytics, Kaplan Strategies and Rasmussen Reports. In the analysis of state polls, The Times included two polls, of Iowa and South Carolina, conducted by Beacon Research for Fox Business, and one of New Hampshire by the University of New Hampshire. Polling assessments for Mr. Burgum and Mr. Hutchinson are uncertain. While it appears they have met the threshold in an adequate number of polls, the R.N.C. has not confirmed whether these polls meet the debate qualification criteria.
Source: Elections - nytimes.com
