Elections

The former president’s political orbit, including the super PAC that backs him, is already spending more than it is taking in — an unusual trajectory this far out from an election.Donald J. Trump’s legal problems aren’t just piling up — his legal bills are, too.New financial reports show that the former president’s various political committees and the super PAC backing him have used roughly 30 cents of every dollar spent so far this year on legal-related costs. The total amounts to more than $27 million in legal fees and other investigation-related bills in the first six months of 2023, according to a New York Times analysis of federal records. That $27 million in legal costs includes Mr. Trump paying at least eight law firms more than $1 million each in the first half of 2023, part of a sizable set of legal billings expected to spiral upward in the coming months as his overlapping criminal cases wind their way toward courtrooms in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C.The new disclosures revealed the remarkable degree to which Mr. Trump’s political and legal cash are intermingled, much like his own political and legal fate.Mr. Trump’s complex political orbit is already spending more than it is taking in, and tapping into money it raised years ago — an unusual trajectory this far out from an election. And the burn rate raises questions about whether such an approach is untenable, or whether Mr. Trump will eventually need to dip into his own fortune to pay for his lawyers, his 2024 campaign or both.It is a step that the famously tightfisted Mr. Trump has resisted taking, even as his advisers have begun planning behind the scenes for a potential political cash crunch months before the primaries begin.Mr. Trump is not known for long-term planning, so it remains unclear how much he has focused on the intricate challenges of financing his campaign in the coming months. Some close to him say they are reassured by the fact that if he becomes the presidential nominee again, he can rely on the Republican Party to provide financial support. “President Trump continues to be the campaign fund-raising leader due to the support from voters who recognize this as an illegal witch-hunt,” said Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Mr. Trump, in a statement. “As President Trump has said, he will spend whatever it takes to defeat the Deep State and Crooked Joe Biden.”All told, the political committees that Mr. Trump directly controls, along with the independently operated super PAC devoted exclusively to helping him, are spending more than they raised so far in 2023 — largely because of his legal expenditures, the filings show.Those entities brought in $67.2 million in new donations in the first half of the year and spent about $90 million in the same period. Most of the money that went to legal fees did not come from new donations, the records show. Save America, the PAC doing the bulk of the legal spending, raised much of its funds in the aftermath of the 2020 election and plunged $16 million into legal expenses in 2022. It’s nearly been bled dry.“This is going to be an incredibly expensive proposition,” said Ben Brafman, a prominent criminal defense lawyer who is not involved in Mr. Trump’s cases. Of Mr. Trump’s three indictments, he added, “Not only is he now dealing with three separate jurisdictions, and nobody really knows which case is going to come first, but they all need to be investigated, researched and prepared at the same time by his attorneys.”Trump Entities Have Plunged Millions Into Legal ExpensesData is for Jan. 1 through June 30. More

Los 12 disparos efectuados el miércoles por la tarde, que acabaron con la vida de un candidato presidencial ecuatoriano cuando salía de un acto de campaña, han marcado un punto de inflexión dramático para una nación que hasta hace apenas unos años parecía una isla de seguridad en una región violenta.Un video del instante previo al asesinato del candidato, Fernando Villavicencio, comenzó a circular en línea incluso antes de que se confirmara su muerte. Para muchos ecuatorianos, esos disparos resonaron con un mensaje sombrío: su país había cambiado para siempre.“Siento que representa una pérdida total de control para el gobierno”, dijo Ingrid Ríos, politóloga de la ciudad de Guayaquil, “y para los ciudadanos también”.Ecuador, un país con 18 millones de habitantes en la costa occidental de Sudamérica, ha sobrevivido a gobiernos autoritarios, crisis financieras, protestas masivas y al menos un secuestro presidencial. Sin embargo, nunca había sido sacudido por el tipo de conflicto relacionado con las drogas que ha plagado a la vecina Colombia, el cual ha desatado una violencia que ha matado a miles, erosionando la democracia y enfrentando a los ciudadanos entre sí.Hasta ahora.La sede del partido político de Villavicencio. El candidato fue asesinado frente a una escuela donde estaba realizando un evento de campaña.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesHoras después del asesinato del candidato, el presidente Guillermo Lasso declaró el estado de emergencia y suspendió algunas libertades civiles para ayudarlo a lidiar con la creciente delincuencia, según dijo.El jueves por la tarde, el ministro del Interior de Ecuador, Juan Zapata, afirmó que los seis sospechosos detenidos en relación con el asesinato de Villavicencio eran de nacionalidad colombiana, lo que le añade una nueva dimensión a una historia que ya parecía haber sido importada de otro lugar.En los últimos cinco años, el narcotráfico ha ganado un poder extraordinario en Ecuador, a medida que las mafias extranjeras de la droga se han aliado con las pandillas locales de las calles y las prisiones. En solo unos años han transformado regiones enteras del país, extorsionando negocios, reclutando jóvenes, infiltrándose en el gobierno y matando a quienes los investigan.Las similitudes con los problemas que afectaron a Colombia en las décadas de 1980 y 1990, cuando los grupos narcotraficantes asumieron el control de grandes zonas del país y se infiltraron en el gobierno, se han vuelto casi imposibles de ignorar para los ecuatorianos.El jueves, algunos comenzaron a comparar el asesinato de Villavicencio con el de Luis Carlos Galán, un candidato presidencial colombiano que fue asesinado a tiros durante la campaña en 1989. Al igual que Villavicencio, Galán fue un duro crítico de la actividad ilegal de las drogas.La muerte de Galán aún resuena en Colombia como símbolo de los peligros de denunciar al poder criminal y de la incapacidad del Estado para proteger a sus ciudadanos.En términos más generales, Colombia sigue lidiando con los efectos del narcotráfico, que sigue influyendo en los procesos electorales y es responsable de la muerte y el desplazamiento de miles de personas cada año.El jueves, un grupo de personas se reunió frente a una morgue en la capital ecuatoriana, Quito, donde se encontraba el cuerpo de Villavicencio. El aire se llenó de llantos desesperados. Irina Tejada, una maestra de 48 años, habló entre lágrimas.“Nos arrebataron a nuestro héroe”, dijo. Luego, refiriéndose a los políticos corruptos, afirmó: “¿Por qué no se ponen de parte de nuestro pueblo, no de esos narcos criminales? ¡Qué dolor, indignación!”.Irina Tejada, maestra, de luto frente a la morgue donde se encontraba el cuerpo de Villavicencio.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesPoco después, el coche fúnebre plateado que transportaba el cuerpo de Villavicencio salió de la morgue y la multitud comenzó a aplaudir, primero con tristeza y luego con rabia frenética.La gente le gritó a la escolta policial que rodeaba el cuerpo.“¡Ahora lo protegen! ¡Cuando ya es demasiado tarde!”, gritó una mujer.Villavicencio, quien había trabajado como periodista, activista y asambleísta, figuraba en las encuestas en una posición intermedia en el grupo de ocho candidatos para las elecciones presidenciales que se celebrarán el 20 de agosto. Fue uno de los que más denunció abiertamente el vínculo entre el crimen organizado y los funcionarios gubernamentales.El miércoles por la tarde, Villavicencio llegó a una escuela en Quito, la capital, donde estuvo en un escenario frente a una multitud y se pronunció “en contra de las mafias que han sometido a esta patria”. Luego, cuando salía de la escuela bajo una enorme pancarta que mostraba su rostro junto a la palabra “presidente”, se realizaron los disparos.El presidente Lasso inmediatamente culpó de la muerte al “crimen organizado”. La Fiscalía General del Estado rápidamente dijo que un sospechoso había muerto y otros seis habían sido arrestados.Al día siguiente, Lasso informó que había solicitado la ayuda del FBI, órgano que accedió a ayudar en la investigación del caso.Con un chaleco antibalas, Andrea González, compañera de fórmula de Villavicencio, ofreció una conferencia de prensa el jueves.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesJusto después de la muerte de Villavicencio, Carlos Figueroa, un miembro de su campaña que presenció el tiroteo, habló con el Times, con voz temblorosa.“Las mafias son demasiado poderosas”, afirmó. “Se han tomado nuestro país, se han tomado el sistema económico, la policía, el sistema judicial”.“Estamos desesperados”, continuó. “No sabemos el futuro de nuestro país. En manos de quién, por quién va a ser asumido”.Villavicencio, de 59 años, ganó prominencia como opositor del correísmo, el movimiento de izquierda del expresidente Rafael Correa, quien gobernó desde 2007 hasta 2017 y aún tiene poder político en Ecuador.En los días previos al asesinato, Villavicencio había aparecido en televisión afirmando que había recibido tres amenazas específicas de miembros de un grupo criminal llamado Los Choneros.En una primera amenaza, dijo, representantes de un líder de Los Choneros llamado Fito visitaron a un miembro del equipo de Villavicencio “para decirle que si yo sigo mencionando el nombre de Fito, mencionando los Choneros, me van a quebrar. Efectivamente, eso fue. Y mi decisión fue continuar con la campaña”.Oficiales de policía custodiando la caravana que transportaba el cuerpo de Villavicencio, el jueves.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesEl asesinato de Villavicencio afecta una elección presidencial ya de por sí polémica, y que continuará según lo planeado. La candidata que cuenta con el respaldo de Correa, Luisa González, lidera las encuestas.Sin embargo, como Villavicencio fue un crítico tan duro de Correa, algunos ecuatorianos han comenzado a culpar a los candidatos correístas por la muerte de Villavicencio. No hay evidencia de su participación.“Ni un solo voto para el correísmo”, coreó una mujer afuera de la morgue.Otros votantes dijeron que iban a comenzar a apoyar a Jan Topic, un candidato y exsoldado de la Legión Extranjera Francesa cuyo enfoque ha sido adoptar una línea dura en materia de seguridad y quien se ha hecho eco de las promesas del presidente de El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. La línea dura de Bukele contra las pandillas, incluidos los encarcelamientos masivos, ha ayudado a reducir la violencia, pero también ha generado que lo acusen de violar las libertades civiles.Germán Martínez, un médico forense que estaba en la morgue donde estuvo el cuerpo de Villavicencio el jueves, dijo que después del asesinato había decidido cambiar su voto a Topic.“¿Dónde estamos como ecuatorianos?”, preguntó. “Ya tenemos que dejar de andar con la frente al sueño. Tenemos que enfrentar a los criminales. Necesitamos una mano firme”.Genevieve Glatsky More

El candidato presidencial asesinado el miércoles tenía un largo historial en la vida pública de Ecuador, en gran parte como antagonista al poder.Líder sindical. Periodista de investigación. Legislador. Candidato presidencial. Y ahora, víctima de asesinato.Fernando Villavicencio, quien fue derribado a tiros el miércoles en un mitin, tenía un largo historial en la vida pública ecuatoriana, en gran parte como antagonista de quienes ocupaban el poder. Destacó como líder sindical en la empresa petrolera estatal, Petroecuador, y luego tuvo un papel clave para dar a conocer un escándalo de corrupción que finalmente condujo a la condena del expresidente Rafael Correa.Correa, un socialista, lideró al país durante una década hasta 2017, el mandato ininterrumpido más largo de un presidente elegido de manera democrática en Ecuador. Un auge de las materias primas le ayudó a sacar a millones de personas de la pobreza, pero su estilo autoritario y las denuncias de corrupción en su contra dividieron profundamente al país.Y Villavicencio estuvo “permanentemente en contestación al poder” de Correa, según Caroline Ávila, analista política ecuatoriana.“Eso le puso en un lugar destacado entre los activistas de los movimientos sociales de Ecuador”, afirmó Mauricio Alarcón Salvador, director del capítulo de Transparencia Internacional en Ecuador.Durante dos décadas, Villavicencio se dedicó al periodismo de investigación, centrándose en la corrupción en el sector petrolero. “Y eso, entre muchas otras cosas, provocó la rabia, la ira de quienes estaban en el poder”, dijo Alarcón.Nacido en el seno de una familia pobre que vivía en un pequeño pueblo de la provincia de Chimborazo, en el centro del país, Villavicencio se trasladó a Quito cuando era adolescente para terminar el bachillerato en clases nocturnas, explicó Juan Carlos Calderón, director de la organización de investigación periodística Plan V y compañero de universidad y colaborador periodístico de Villavicencio.Sus compañeros de clase durante su etapa como estudiante de periodismo en la Universidad Central del Ecuador lo describieron como un apasionado izquierdista y un excelente polemista.“Yo siempre lo vi como una persona muy valiente, muy potente en todo lo que emprendía”, dijo Calderón. “Realmente nunca dejó de serlo”.Como periodista, Villavicencio obtuvo documentos sobre un programa de vigilancia gubernamental que envió a WikiLeaks, pero que finalmente publicó por su cuenta. Algunos de sus trabajos le valieron amenazas de muerte y acusaciones que fueron muy criticadas por considerarse que tenían motivaciones políticas. Trabajó junto al político Clever Jiménez y el activista Carlos Figueroa, quien estaba con Villavicencio en el mitin de campaña en el que le dispararon.Correa desató “una persecución judicial sin precedentes” contra los tres, y en particular contra Villavicencio, dijo Alarcón, quien actuó como su abogado ante la Comisión Interamericana de Derechos Humanos, organismo que les concedió medidas cautelares de protección. La persecución incluyó el allanamiento de sus hogares en Nochebuena y amenazas a sus familias, añadió.“Creo que eso es una muestra también de que el trabajo de Villavicencio tocaba permanentemente fibras sensibles, fibras vinculadas a relaciones que antes se creían intocables”, dijo.En 2014, Villavicencio se refugió durante varios meses en la comunidad indígena Sarayaku, en la Amazonía, tras ser condenado a prisión por insultar a Correa. También pasó seis meses escondido en 2017, antes de solicitar asilo político en Perú.Ahí se reunió con una amiga de sus épocas universitarias en la Universidad Central de Ecuador. No tenía dinero para defenderse de las acusaciones que se le imputaban y se había visto obligado a dejar atrás a sus dos hijos pequeños.Se sentía “acosado y humillado”, relató la amiga, Grace Jaramillo, quien ahora es politóloga en la Universidad de Columbia Británica.Pero Correa dejó el cargo posteriormente ese año y Villavicencio volvió a casa. ​​Un tribunal federal lo declaró inocente, y siguió publicando investigaciones sobre corrupción y presentando denuncias ante el fiscal general de Ecuador, muchas de las cuales fueron corroboradas.A veces fue criticado por mezclar sus funciones de periodista y activista, incluso Calderón discrepó de sus decisiones de presentar denuncias ante el fiscal general.“Yo siempre consideré que uno es periodista y punto. No es fiscal ni denunciante”, dijo.Pero dijo que Villavicencio “tenía esta idea de que ser periodista no era suficiente, no era suficiente denunciar. Él consideraba que era importante actuar más allá de eso para que no hubiera impunidad”.Esa determinación hizo que se dedicara definitivamente a la política, y en 2021 logró una curul en la Asamblea Nacional, donde fungió como asambleísta hasta mayo, cuando la legislatura fue disuelta por el presidente Guillermo Lasso, que enfrentaba un juicio político por acusaciones de malversación de fondos.La medida de Lasso también dio pie a unas elecciones presidenciales que se llevarán a cabo el 20 de agosto. Para su candidatura presidencial, Villavicencio, de 59 años, se presentó como el candidato anticorrupción. Representaba al Movimiento Construye, una amplia coalición, y también habló de temas de seguridad personal en un país que ha sido consumido por la violencia relacionada con el narcotráfico.Habló de manera abierta sobre los vínculos entre los gobiernos municipales y el dinero del narcotráfico, lo que le granjeó enemigos, según Calderón.“Yo siempre pensaba que él, en el fondo, era un sindicalista”, dijo. “Y ese espíritu lo llevó a la campaña”.En una contienda con ocho candidatos, Villavicencio aparecía en los sondeos al medio, pero de acuerdo con Jaramillo, tenía esperanza de sus posibilidades. Fue abatido antes de que los votantes pudieran dar su veredicto.La última vez que Calderón habló con el candidato presidencial fue el martes, el día antes de su muerte. Cuando se enteró del asesinato, él y otros amigos corrieron al hospital, donde permanecieron hasta que el cuerpo de Villavicencio fue trasladado a la morgue.“Sabíamos que estaba amenazado. Creíamos que estaba protegido”, dijo. “Uno no cree que eso le pueda pasar a alguien muy cercano”.Poco después del asesinato, Correa acudió a las redes sociales.“Han asesinado a Fernando Villavicencio”, escribió el expresidente en la plataforma X, antes Twitter. “Ecuador se ha convertido en un Estado fallido”. More

The 12 shots fired on Wednesday evening, killing an Ecuadorean presidential candidate as he exited a campaign event, marked a dramatic turning point for a nation that a few years ago seemed an island of security in a violent region.A video of the moments just before the killing of the candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, began circulating online even before his death had been confirmed. And for many Ecuadoreans, those shots echoed with a bleak message: Their nation was forever changed.“I feel that it represents a total loss of control for the government,” said Ingrid Ríos, a political scientist in the city of Guayaquil, “and for the citizens, as well.”Ecuador, a country of 18 million on South America’s western coast, has survived authoritarian governments, financial crises, mass protests and at least one presidential kidnapping. It has never, however, been shaken by the kind of drug-related warfare that has plagued neighboring Colombia, unleashing violence that has killed thousands, corroded democracy and turned citizens against one another.Until now.The headquarters of Mr. Villavicencio’s political party. He was assassinated outside a school where he was holding a campaign event.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesHours after the candidate’s killing, President Guillermo Lasso declared a state of emergency, suspending some civil liberties, he said, to help him deal with growing crime.And on Thursday afternoon, Ecuador’s interior minister, Juan Zapata, said that six suspects arrested in connection with Mr. Villavicencio’s killing were all Colombian, adding a new dimension to a story line that already seemed to be imported from another place.In the past five years, the narco-trafficking industry has gained extraordinary power in Ecuador, as foreign drug mafias have joined forces with local prison and street gangs. In just a few years, they have transformed entire swaths of the country, extorting businesses, recruiting young people, infiltrating the government and killing those who investigate them.The similarities to the problems that plagued Colombia in the 1980s and ’90s, as narco-trafficking groups assumed control of broad parts of the country and infiltrated the government, have become almost impossible for Ecuadoreans to ignore.On Thursday, some began to compare Mr. Villavicencio’s killing to that of Luis Carlos Galán, a Colombian presidential candidate gunned down on the campaign trail in 1989. Like Mr. Villavicencio, Mr. Galán was a harsh critic of the illegal drug industry.Mr. Galán’s death still reverberates in Colombia as a symbol of the dangers of speaking out against criminal power and of the inability of the state to protect its citizens.More broadly, Colombia is still grappling with the effects of the drug-trafficking industry, which continues to hold sway over the electoral process and is responsible for the deaths and displacement of thousands of people each year.On Thursday, mourners gathered outside a morgue in the Ecuadorean capital, Quito, where Mr. Villavicencio’s body was being held. The air filled with desperate cries. Irina Tejada, 48, a teacher, wept as she spoke.“They’ve stolen our hero,” she said. Then, addressing corrupt politicians, she went on: “Why don’t they side with our people, not with those criminal narcos? The pain and outrage!”Irina Tejada, a teacher, mourning outside the morgue where Mr. Villavicencio’s body was being held.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesSoon, the silver hearse carrying Mr. Villavicencio’s body left the morgue, and the crowd began to clap, at first mournfully, then with a rapid anger.People screamed at the police escort surrounding the body.“Now you protect him, when it is too late!” a woman shouted.Mr. Villavicencio, who had worked as a journalist, activist and legislator, was polling near the middle of a group of eight candidates in a presidential election set for Aug. 20. He was among the most outspoken about the link between organized crime and government officials.On Wednesday evening, he arrived at a school in Quito, the capital, where he stood on a stage in front of a packed crowd and spoke out “against the mafias that have subjugated this homeland.” Then, as he exited the school under an enormous banner that bore his face and the words “presidente,” the shots were fired.Mr. Lasso, the president, immediately blamed the death on “organized crime.” The national prosecutor’s office quickly said that one suspect had been killed and six others arrested.The following day, Mr. Lasso said he had requested the help of the F.B.I., which agreed to assist in investigating the case.Wearing a bulletproof vest, Andrea González, Mr. Villavicencio’s running mate, held a news conference on Thursday.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesJust after Mr. Villavicencio’s death, Carlos Figueroa, a member of his campaign who had witnessed the shooting, spoke to The Times, his voice wobbly.“The mafias are too powerful,” he said. “They have taken over our country; they have taken over the economic system, the police, the judicial system.”“We are desperate,” he continued. “We don’t know our country’s future, in which hands, or by whom, it will be taken over.”Mr. Villavicencio, 59, gained prominence as an opponent of correísmo, the leftist movement of former President Rafael Correa, who served from 2007 to 2017 and still holds political power in Ecuador.In the days before the assassination, Mr. Villavicencio had appeared on television, saying that he had received three specific threats from members of a criminal group called Los Choneros.In an initial threat, he said, representatives of a Choneros leader named Fito visited a member of Mr. Villavicencio’s team “to tell them that if I keep mentioning Fito’s name, mentioning the Choneros, they’re going to break me. That’s how it was. And my decision was to continue with the electoral campaign.”Police officers guarding the motorcade carrying Mr. Villavicencio’s body on Thursday.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesMr. Villavicencio’s killing casts a pall on an already-contentious presidential election, which will go on as planned. A candidate who has Mr. Correa’s backing, Luisa González, is leading in the polls.Yet, because Mr. Villavicencio was such a harsh critic of Mr. Correa, some Ecuadoreans have begun to blame correísta candidates for Mr. Villavicencio’s death. There is no evidence of their involvement.“Not a single vote for correísmo,” one woman chanted outside the morgue.Other voters said they were turning toward Jan Topic, a candidate and former soldier in the French Foreign Legion whose focus has been taking a hard line on security, and who has been mirroring the promises of El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele. Mr. Bukele’s hard line on gangs, including mass imprisonments, has helped drive down violence, but he has also been accused of violating civil liberties.Germán Martínez, a coroner who happened to be at the morgue where Mr. Villavicencio’s body lay on Thursday, said that after the killing, he had decided to switch his vote to Mr. Topic.“Where are we, as Ecuadoreans?” he asked. “We can’t remain with our heads low. We need to fight criminals. We need a strong hand.”Genevieve Glatsky More

LIV Golf has embraced the former president. But much of golf’s establishment is keeping its distance, even as LIV and the PGA Tour seek a détente.Walking toward a tee box in Virginia in May, former President Donald J. Trump offered an awfully accurate assessment of the way many golf executives viewed him.“They love the courses,” he said, forever the salesman for his family company’s portfolio of properties, “but I think they probably consider me a little bit controversial right now.”As much as some leaders of men’s golf are trying to patch the rupture created by the Saudi-backed LIV Golf circuit, a tour Trump has championed, they seem to be in no rush to end the former president’s exile from their sport’s buttoned-up establishment. Even in an era of gaudy wealth and shifting alliances in golf, Trump remains, for now, a measure too much for many.The consequences have been conspicuous for a figure who had expected to host a men’s golf major tournament in 2022. Now, his ties to the sport’s elite ranks often appear limited to LIV events and periodic rounds with past and present professionals. Jack Nicklaus, the 18-time major champion, caused a stir in April when he publicly stopped short of again endorsing a Trump bid for the White House.Nevertheless, on Thursday, when he was playing a LIV pro-am event at his course in Bedminster, N.J., Trump insisted he was in regular conversations with golf executives about top-tier tournaments.“They think as long as you’re running for office or in office, you’re controversial,” he said.Golf has been a regular respite for Democratic and Republican commanders in chief. But no American president has had a more openly combustible history with the sport than Trump, and perhaps no president besides Dwight D. Eisenhower, who is thought to have averaged about 100 rounds annually when he was in the White House, has had so much of his public image linked to golf.In the years before Trump won the presidency, he had at last started to make significant headway into the rarefied realms of golf.Trump watched his shot from the fairway.Doug Mills/The New York TimesIn 2012, the U.S. Golf Association picked the Bedminster property for the 2017 U.S. Women’s Open. Two years later, the P.G.A. of America said it planned to take the men’s P.G.A. Championship to the course in 2022. Also in 2014, Trump bought Turnberry, a mesmerizing Scottish property that had hosted four British Opens, and he imagined golf’s oldest major championship being contested there again.Once in the White House, Trump played with a parade of golf figures (though some of them appeared more attracted to the magic of the presidency than to Trump himself): Tiger Woods; Rory McIlroy; Ernie Els; Jay Monahan, the commissioner of the PGA Tour; and Fred S. Ridley, the chairman of Augusta National Golf Club.Trump’s 2016 campaign and presidency had given some in golf heartburn. But it was the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol that most clearly chiseled away at his golf dreams. The P.G.A., which is distinct from the PGA Tour, which has dueled with LIV for supremacy over men’s professional golf, immediately moved its 2022 championship from Bedminster. The R&A, which organizes the British Open, made clear that it would not be bound for Turnberry anytime soon.LIV soon emerged as something of a life raft, an insurgent league with a craving for championship-quality courses and plenty of money to spend. It did not hurt that Trump had been strikingly cozy with the government in Riyadh whose wealth fund was ready to pour billions of dollars into LIV — and let some of those dollars, in turn, roll toward the Trump Organization for reasons that have been the subject of widespread speculation.Trump became a fixture at LIV events held at his courses, routinely jawing about the PGA Tour with variable accuracy. (He did, however, predict something like the planned transaction between the wealth fund and the PGA Tour.) This week’s event in New Jersey is his family’s fourth LIV tournament, and a fifth is planned for the Miami area in October.But the budding détente between the Saudis and the PGA Tour does not seem to be leading to an immediate one between Trump and the broader golf industry, which the Saudis could have enormous sway over in the years ahead.The PGA Tour has not publicly committed to maintaining the LIV brand if it reaches a conclusive deal with the wealth fund, and the tentative agreement says nothing about the future of men’s golf’s relationship with Trump. The PGA Tour has a history with Trump but ended its relationship with his company during the 2016 campaign. Tim Finchem, who was the tour’s commissioner then, denied at the time that the decision was “a political exercise” and instead called it “fundamentally a sponsorship issue.”To no one’s surprise, the tour’s 2024 schedule, which the circuit released on Monday, features no events at Trump properties. And although Trump said a few months ago that he thought the Irish Open might be interested in his Doonbeg course, the DP World Tour, which is also a part of the agreement with the Saudi wealth fund, has said the course is not under consideration.Other top golf figures who are not bound by any deal with the Saudis somehow appear even less interested.Trump Turnberry in Scotland won’t be hosting the British Open anytime soon, according to the chief executive of the R&A.Mary Turner for The New York Times“Until we’re confident that any coverage at Turnberry would be about golf, about the golf course and about the championship, until we’re confident about that, we will not return any of our championships there,” Martin Slumbers, the chief executive of the R&A, said on the same day last month when he signaled that the Open organizer might be willing to accept a Saudi investment.Seth Waugh, the P.G.A. of America’s chief executive, declined to comment this week, but the organization has given no signal that it is reconsidering its thinking about Trump courses. The U.S.G.A. said it did not have a comment.Some players, many of whom at least lean conservative, have suggested they would like to see Trump courses be in the mix for the majors.“There’s no reason you couldn’t host P.G.A.s, U.S. Opens out here,” said Patrick Reed, who won the Masters Tournament in 2018 and played with Trump on Thursday. “I mean, just look at it out here: The rough is brutal.”Even a sudden rapprochement, which would require executives setting aside the views of players like Reed that politics should not shape sports decisions, would almost certainly not lead to Trump’s strutting around a major tournament in the near future.The next U.S. Open in need of a venue is the one that will be played in 2036; Trump would turn 90 on the Saturday of that tournament. P.G.A. Championships are booked through 2030. Between last month’s announcement that the 2026 British Open will be held at Royal Birkdale and the R&A’s sustained public skepticism of Trump, the last major of the calendar year seems unlikely to head to a Trump property anytime soon. And the Masters, which is always played at Augusta National in Georgia, is not an option.Women’s golf offers a few more theoretical possibilities since its roster of venues is not as set, but Trump would face much of the same reluctance.Trump has mused about the financial wisdom of golf’s keeping its distance from him. A few months ago, he argued that avoiding his courses was “foolish because you make a lot of money with controversy.”He may be right.But it seems golf is reasoning that it is making plenty of money anyway. Its political bent, some figure, might be better managed outside the glare of its major tournaments — and, moreover, beyond the shadow of Trump.Trump has mused about the financial wisdom of golf’s keeping its distance from him. Doug Mills/The New York Times More

Two law professors active in the Federalist Society wrote that the original meaning of the 14th Amendment makes Donald Trump ineligible to hold government office.Two prominent conservative law professors have concluded that Donald J. Trump is ineligible to be president under a provision of the Constitution that bars people who have engaged in an insurrection from holding government office. The professors are active members of the Federalist Society, the conservative legal group, and proponents of originalism, the method of interpretation that seeks to determine the Constitution’s original meaning.The professors — William Baude of the University of Chicago and Michael Stokes Paulsen of the University of St. Thomas — studied the question for more than a year and detailed their findings in a long article to be published next year in The University of Pennsylvania Law Review.“When we started out, neither of us was sure what the answer was,” Professor Baude said. “People were talking about this provision of the Constitution. We thought: ‘We’re constitutional scholars, and this is an important constitutional question. We ought to figure out what’s really going on here.’ And the more we dug into it, the more we realized that we had something to add.”He summarized the article’s conclusion: “Donald Trump cannot be president — cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office — unless two-thirds of Congress decides to grant him amnesty for his conduct on Jan. 6.”A law review article will not, of course, change the reality that Mr. Trump is the Republican front-runner and that voters remain free to assess whether his conduct was blameworthy. But the scope and depth of the article may encourage and undergird lawsuits from other candidates and ordinary voters arguing that the Constitution makes him ineligible for office.“There are many ways that this could become a lawsuit presenting a vital constitutional issue that potentially the Supreme Court would want to hear and decide,” Professor Paulsen said.Mr. Trump has already been indicted twice in federal court, in connection with his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his retention of classified documents. He is also facing charges relating to hush money payments in New York and may soon be indicted in Georgia in a second election case.Those cases could give rise to prison time or other criminal punishment. The provision examined in the new article concerns a different question: whether Mr. Trump is eligible to hold office.There is, the article said, “abundant evidence” that Mr. Trump engaged in an insurrection, including by setting out to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election, trying to alter vote counts by fraud and intimidation, encouraging bogus slates of competing electors, pressuring the vice president to violate the Constitution, calling for the march on the Capitol and remaining silent for hours during the attack itself.“It is unquestionably fair to say that Trump ‘engaged in’ the Jan. 6 insurrection through both his actions and his inaction,” the article said.Steven G. Calabresi, a law professor at Northwestern and Yale and a founder of the Federalist Society, called the article “a tour de force.”But James Bopp Jr., who has represented House members whose candidacies were challenged under the provision, said the authors “have adopted a ridiculously broad view” of it, adding that the article’s analysis “is completely anti-historical.”(Mr. Bopp’s clients have had mixed success in cases brought under the provision. A state judge, assuming that the Jan. 6 attacks were an insurrection and that participating in them barred candidates from office, ruled that Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, had not taken part in or encouraged the attacks after she took an oath to support the Constitution on Jan 3. A federal appeals court ruled against Representative Madison Cawthorn, Republican of North Carolina, on one of his central arguments, but the case was rendered moot by his loss in the 2022 primary.)The provision in question is Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Adopted after the Civil War, it bars those who had taken an oath “to support the Constitution of the United States” from holding office if they then “shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”Congress can remove the prohibition, the provision says, but only by a two-thirds vote in each House.The new article examined the historical evidence illuminating the meaning of the provision at great length, using the methods of originalism. It drew on, among other things, contemporaneous dictionary definitions, other provisions of the Constitution using similar language, “the especially strong evidence from 1860s Civil War era political and legal usage of nearly the precise same terms” and the early enforcement of the provision.The article concluded that essentially all of that evidence pointed in the same direction: “toward a broad understanding of what constitutes insurrection and rebellion and a remarkably, almost extraordinarily, broad understanding of what types of conduct constitute engaging in, assisting, or giving aid or comfort to such movements.”It added, “The bottom line is that Donald Trump both ‘engaged in’ ‘insurrection or rebellion’ and gave ‘aid or comfort’ to others engaging in such conduct, within the original meaning of those terms as employed in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.”Though the provision was devised to address the aftermath of the Civil War, it was written in general terms and continues to have force, the article said. Congress granted broad amnesties in 1872 and 1898. But those acts were retrospective, the article said, and did not limit Section 3’s prospective force. (A federal appeals court agreed last year in the case involving Mr. Cawthorn.)The provision’s language is automatic, the article said, establishing a qualification for holding office no different in principle from the Constitution’s requirement that only people who are at least 35 years old are eligible to be president.“Section 3’s disqualification rule may and must be followed — applied, honored, obeyed, enforced, carried out — by anyone whose job it is to figure out whether someone is legally qualified to office,” the authors wrote. That includes election administrators, the article said.Professor Calabresi said those administrators must act. “Trump is ineligible to be on the ballot, and each of the 50 state secretaries of state has an obligation to print ballots without his name on them,” he said, adding that they may be sued for refusing to do so.(Professor Calabresi has occasionally strayed from conservative orthodoxy, leading to an unusual request from the group he helped found. “I have been asked not to talk to any journalist who identifies me as a co-founder of the Federalist Society, even though it is a historical fact,” he said. I noted the request and ignored it.)Some of the evidence the article considered overlapped with what was described in the recent indictment of Mr. Trump accusing him of conspiring to subvert the 2020 election. But that case and Section 3 address “completely separate questions,” Professor Baude said.“The question of should Donald Trump go to jail is entrusted to the criminal process,” he said. “The question of should he be allowed to take the constitutional oath again and be given constitutional power again is not a question given to any jury.” More

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Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, told a local news station on Thursday that he “would think very seriously” about leaving the Democratic Party and becoming an independent.“I’ve been thinking about that for quite some time,” Mr. Manchin said in an interview on MetroNews’s “Talkline” show, adding: “The brand has become so bad, the D brand and R brand. In West Virginia, the D brand because it’s nationally bad. It’s not the Democrats in West Virginia. It’s the Democrats in Washington, or the Washington policies of the Democrats. You’ve heard me say a million times that I’m not a Washington Democrat.”He said he had not made a decision yet — either about his party affiliation or about his electoral plans. He is up for re-election to the Senate next year in what, if he runs, promises to be a very difficult race, and he has flirted with running a third-party campaign for president.Last month, he appeared at an event for the bipartisan group No Labels, which is considering fielding a third-party ticket in 2024 to the alarm of Democrats, who fear it would draw enough voters away from President Biden to ensure a Republican victory.No third-party candidate has come close to being elected in modern times, and it was not clear in the MetroNews interview that Mr. Manchin himself thought such a candidacy was viable. He framed it instead as a way to “make a big, big splash and maybe bring the traditional parties, the Democratic and Republican Party, back to what they should be” — which, in his view, is “the middle.”If Mr. Manchin did leave the Democratic Party, he would be the second senator to do so in a short span of time. Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who was elected as a Democrat in 2018, became an independent at the end of last year. Like Mr. Manchin, she faces a difficult re-election campaign next year if she chooses to run in a three-way race against a Democrat and a Republican. More