Elections

From 2h agoDonald Trump’s multiplying legal troubles are taking a toll on his campaign finances as he spends more and more on lawyers, the New York Times reports.Trump’s Pac, Save America, has less than $4m in its account, down from the $105m it began last year with, the Times reports, citing federal records. So bad have its finances become that it has requested back $60m that it sent to a pro-Trump Super Pac, Make America Great Again Inc, which was supposed to spend the money on television ads.Since the start of the year, Trump has been indicted by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on state charges of falsifying business records, and by special counsel Jack Smith for breaking federal law by allegedly keeping classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and by conspiring to keep them out of the hands of government archivists.Trump has been told Smith may bring new charges against him related to his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, while, in Georgia, Fulton county district attorney Fani Willis said she will announce indictments in her investigation of Trump and his allies’ attempt to overturn the 2020 election sometime before September. The stage is set for Trump to continue paying huge legal fees for months, but he has one good thing going for him: his massive lead among Republican presidential candidates, which potentially could alleviate some of the damage done if he has to pullback on campaign spending.Here’s more on his dire finances, from the Times:
The super PAC, which is called Make America Great Again Inc., has already sent back $12.25 million to the group paying Mr. Trump’s legal bills, according to federal records — a sum nearly as large as the $13.1 million the super PAC raised from donors in the first half of 2023. Those donations included $1 million from the father of his son-in-law, Charles Kushner, whom Mr. Trump pardoned for federal crimes in his final days as president, and $100,000 from a candidate seeking Mr. Trump’s endorsement.
The extraordinary shift of money from the super PAC to Mr. Trump’s political committee, described in federal campaign filings as a refund, is believed to be larger than any other refund on record in the history of federal campaigns.
It comes as Mr. Trump’s political and legal fate appear increasingly intertwined. The return of money from the super PAC, which Mr. Trump does not control, to his political action committee, which he does, demonstrates how his operation is balancing dueling priorities: paying lawyers and supporting his political candidacy through television ads.
Save America, Mr. Trump’s political action committee, is prohibited by law from directly spending money on his candidacy. When Save America donated $60 million last year to Mr. Trump’s super PAC — which is permitted to spend on his campaign — it effectively evaded that prohibition.
It is not clear from the filing exactly when the refund was requested, but the super PAC did not return the money all at once. It gave back $1 million on May 1; $5 million more on May 9; another $5 million on June 1; and $1.25 million on June 30. These returns followed Mr. Trump’s two indictments this year: one in Manhattan in March, and one last month in federal court.
The White House is currently a much quieter place than usual, since Joe Biden is on vacation in Delaware. But someone is manning its Twitter account, and has opted this morning to troll Republican senator Tommy Tuberville.You may remember him for his ongoing blockade of military promotions over the Pentagon’s moves to assist service members in obtaining abortions. Yesterday, he insisted his campaign was not hurting military readiness:To which the White House has responded:The 2024 election will also decide control of the Senate, where Republicans are currently viewed as having a good shot at retaking the majority.Joe Biden’s allies can afford to lose only one seat in the chamber, but three Democrats representing red states will be up for re-election: Joe Manchin of West Virginia (who has not said if he will run again), Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio (both of whom say they will run again). All face tough roads to keeping their seats.Then there’s the possibility that the GOP could oust a Democrat representing a swing state, such as Wisconsin. Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin is up for re-election there, but in something of a setback for Republicans, Tom Tiffany announced today that he has decided to run for re-election in the House of Representatives rather than challenge Baldwin, as some in the GOP hoped he would do:Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied in a New York Times/Siena College poll released today, while the president has consolidated his support among Democrats.A caveat before we get into the numbers: the November 2024 election is more than a year away, and will likely be decided by a handful of swing states, particularly Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. So for all the headlines this poll might generate, keep in mind that things can change dramatically between then and now.Back to the Times/Siena data, it finds Biden and Trump tied with 43% support if the presidential election were held today. But it also indicates many Democrats have gotten over their hesitancy towards Biden. Last year, two-thirds wanted a different candidate, but now, that number has dropped to about half.Here’s more on the numbers, from the Times:
Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.
Mr. Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Mr. Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 percent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, a segment with which Mr. Biden had a narrow lead.
“Donald Trump is not a Republican, he’s a criminal,” said John Wittman, 42, a heating and air conditioning contractor from Phoenix. A Republican, he said that even though he believed Mr. Biden’s economic stewardship had hurt the country, “I will vote for anyone on the planet that seems halfway capable of doing the job, including Joe Biden, over Donald Trump.”
To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. Just 20 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Mr. Biden were the party’s 2024 presidential nominee; another 51 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.
A higher share of Democrats, 26 percent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.
Joe Biden is taking a summer vacation after several months in which things seemed to increasingly come together for the American president. Over the weekend, the Guardian’s David Smith looked at this administration’s recent hot streak – as well as the challenges he faces in the year to come:It was the word that the far right of the Republican party most wanted to hear. Kevin McCarthy, speaker of the House of Representatives, said this week his colleagues’ investigations of Joe Biden are rising to the level of an “impeachment” inquiry.Republicans in Congress admit that they do not yet have any direct evidence of wrongdoing by the US president. But, critics say, there is a simple explanation why they would float the ultimate sanction: they need to put Biden’s character on trial because their case against his policies is falling apart.Heading into next year’s presidential election, Republicans have been readying a three-pronged attack: crime soaring in cities, chaos raging at the southern border and prices spiralling out of control everywhere. But each of these narratives is being disrupted by facts on the ground: crime is falling in most parts of the country, there is relative calm at the border and inflation is at a two-year low.Donald Trump’s legal problems may be formidable, but as the Guardian’s Martin Pengelly reports, so, too, is his popularity among Republicans:Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton county, Georgia, is “ready to go” with indictments in her investigation of Donald Trump’s election subversion. In Washington, the special counsel Jack Smith is expected to add charges regarding election subversion to 40 counts already filed over the former president’s retention of classified records.Trump already faces 34 criminal charges in New York over hush-money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels. Referring to Trump being ordered to pay $5m after being found liable for sexual abuse and defamation against the writer E Jean Carroll, a judge recently said Carroll proved Trump raped her. Lawsuits over Trump’s business affairs continue.Yet a month out from the first debate of the Republican presidential primary, Trump’s domination of the field increases with each poll.Donald Trump’s multiplying legal troubles are taking a toll on his campaign finances as he spends more and more on lawyers, the New York Times reports.Trump’s Pac, Save America, has less than $4m in its account, down from the $105m it began last year with, the Times reports, citing federal records. So bad have its finances become that it has requested back $60m that it sent to a pro-Trump Super Pac, Make America Great Again Inc, which was supposed to spend the money on television ads.Since the start of the year, Trump has been indicted by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg on state charges of falsifying business records, and by special counsel Jack Smith for breaking federal law by allegedly keeping classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and by conspiring to keep them out of the hands of government archivists.Trump has been told Smith may bring new charges against him related to his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, while, in Georgia, Fulton county district attorney Fani Willis said she will announce indictments in her investigation of Trump and his allies’ attempt to overturn the 2020 election sometime before September. The stage is set for Trump to continue paying huge legal fees for months, but he has one good thing going for him: his massive lead among Republican presidential candidates, which potentially could alleviate some of the damage done if he has to pullback on campaign spending.Here’s more on his dire finances, from the Times:
The super PAC, which is called Make America Great Again Inc., has already sent back $12.25 million to the group paying Mr. Trump’s legal bills, according to federal records — a sum nearly as large as the $13.1 million the super PAC raised from donors in the first half of 2023. Those donations included $1 million from the father of his son-in-law, Charles Kushner, whom Mr. Trump pardoned for federal crimes in his final days as president, and $100,000 from a candidate seeking Mr. Trump’s endorsement.
The extraordinary shift of money from the super PAC to Mr. Trump’s political committee, described in federal campaign filings as a refund, is believed to be larger than any other refund on record in the history of federal campaigns.
It comes as Mr. Trump’s political and legal fate appear increasingly intertwined. The return of money from the super PAC, which Mr. Trump does not control, to his political action committee, which he does, demonstrates how his operation is balancing dueling priorities: paying lawyers and supporting his political candidacy through television ads.
Save America, Mr. Trump’s political action committee, is prohibited by law from directly spending money on his candidacy. When Save America donated $60 million last year to Mr. Trump’s super PAC — which is permitted to spend on his campaign — it effectively evaded that prohibition.
It is not clear from the filing exactly when the refund was requested, but the super PAC did not return the money all at once. It gave back $1 million on May 1; $5 million more on May 9; another $5 million on June 1; and $1.25 million on June 30. These returns followed Mr. Trump’s two indictments this year: one in Manhattan in March, and one last month in federal court.
Good morning, US politics blog readers. The wait continues to find out whether special counsel Jack Smith will indict Donald Trump over his involvement in the January 6 insurrection, and there are signs this morning a decision could come soon. CNN spotted grand jurors arriving at a federal courthouse in Washington DC where they’re considering evidence in the case, but there’s no telling when a decision could come.Signs that Trump could be charged have been mounting. Last week, the former president said he had received a target letter from Smith, a step typically taken before someone is indicted. And yesterday, Trump said he expected charges to be filed “any day now”. But the winding legal saga has yet to dent his standing in the GOP, or even in the presidential race at large. New polling from the New York Times shows him crushing every other Republican candidate in the presidential nomination race, and tied with Joe Biden in the general election.Here’s what else is happening today:
Kamala Harris is heading to Orlando to address the 20th Women’s Missionary Society of the African Methodist Episcopal Church Quadrennial Convention at 2.15pm eastern time. We’ll keep an eye open if she reiterates her criticism of Florida’s new Ron DeSantis-backed school curriculum, which implies that slavery wasn’t so bad.
Biden, meanwhile, continues his beach vacation in Delaware. He has no public events scheduled.
Alabama lawmakers are raging over Biden’s decision to cancel US Space Command’s planned move to the state, Punchbowl News reports. The decision came amid Republican senator Tommy Tuberville’s ongoing blockade of military promotions in protest of the Pentagon’s abortion policy. More

Mientras su marido busca regresar a la Casa Blanca y se enfrenta a un riesgo legal cada vez mayor, la ex primera dama ha decidido mantenerse fuera del ojo público.Desde que salió de la Casa Blanca, el mundo de Melania Trump se ha hecho más pequeño.Tal como a ella le gusta.Resguardada tras las puertas cerradas de sus tres casas, su mundo se limita a un pequeño círculo: su hijo, sus padres ya mayores y un puñado de viejos amigos. Visita a sus peluqueros, consulta a Hervé Pierre, su estilista de toda la vida, y a veces se reúne con su marido para cenar los viernes por la noche en sus clubes. Pero su objetivo máximo es una campaña personal: ayudar a su hijo Barron, de 17 años, en su búsqueda de universidad.Lo que no ha hecho, a pesar de las invitaciones de su marido, es aparecer en la campaña electoral. Tampoco ha estado a su lado en ninguna de sus comparecencias ante los tribunales.Así pasa los días Melania Trump, ex primera dama, actual cónyuge de un candidato en campaña y esposa de una de las figuras más divisorias de la vida pública estadounidense. A diferencia de sus predecesoras, no hay planes para una gira de conferencias, un libro o una gran expansión de sus actividades de beneficencia, la mayoría de las cuales, dicen personas cercanas a los Trump, no son del todo visibles para el público. En su vida después de ser primera dama, quiere lo que no pudo conseguir en la Casa Blanca: una sensación de privacidad.Esos intentos de retirarse de la vida pública se han visto obstaculizados por su marido, que la ha convertido de nuevo en la esposa de un candidato. Mientras Donald Trump se enfrenta a una posible tercera acusación formal, ella ha guardado un silencio inquebrantable sobre su creciente riesgo judicial.Aunque apoya su candidatura presidencial, Melania Trump no se ha dejado ver en público desde que Trump anunció su campaña en noviembre y no fue sino hasta mayo que habló de eso, cuando manifestó su apoyo en una entrevista con Fox News Digital.“Tiene mi apoyo y esperamos devolver la esperanza por el futuro y gobernar Estados Unidos con amor y fortaleza”, declaró.Su ausencia marca una notable diferencia con el inicio de la primera campaña de Trump, cuando Melania Trump, con un vestido blanco sin tirantes, descendió por la escalera mecánica dorada delante de su marido en el arranque de su campaña en la Torre Trump.Melania Trump mantiene el contacto y la amistad con un reducido grupo de personas de su época en la Casa Blanca, entre ellas la diseñadora Rachel Roy y Hilary Geary Ross, la destacada relacionista de Palm Beach y esposa de Wilbur L. Ross, ex secretario de Comercio de Trump. Sigue muy unida a sus padres, que tienen un apartamento en la Torre Trump de Manhattan y han sido vistos en eventos de Trump en Mar-a-Lago, el club privado y residencia de los Trump.“Desde su punto de vista y el de sus amigos, ha pasado por muchas cosas, que la han convertido en una mujer fuerte e independiente”, dijo R. Couri Hay, publicista que conoció a Melania Trump en Nueva York antes de que se fuera a Washington. “Ha aprendido a cerrar puertas y persianas y a permanecer en privado. No vemos mucho, no oímos mucho”.Melania Trump declinó una solicitud de entrevista. Este relato se basa en una decena de entrevistas con asociados, ayudantes de campaña y amigos, la mayoría de los cuales hablaron bajo condición de anonimato porque no estaban autorizados a discutir los detalles privados de su vida.Personas cercanas a la familia afirman que la falta de apoyo público de Melania Trump no debe confundirse con desaprobación o indiferencia. Ella sigue defendiendo a su marido y comparte su creencia de que su familia está siendo atacada injustamente. Desconfía mucho de los principales medios de comunicación y es una ávida lectora del Daily Mail en internet, en el que sigue la cobertura de Trump que hace el tabloide conservador británico.Melania Trump muestra un particular escepticismo ante el caso de E. Jean Carroll, quien obtuvo 5 millones de dólares por daños y perjuicios en un juicio en el que acusó a Trump de abusos sexuales en la década de 1990 y de difamación después de que dejara la Casa Blanca, según dos personas familiarizadas con sus declaraciones. Cuando Melania Trump vio la cobertura de la declaración de su marido en el caso, se enfureció con su equipo legal por no haber hecho más para plantear objeciones. También ha cuestionado en privado por qué Carroll no podía recordar la fecha exacta de la supuesta agresión.A pesar de ello, Melania Trump cree que, a pesar de los riesgos judiciales, Trump podría regresar a la Casa Blanca el año próximo. En privado, ha mostrado curiosidad por Casey DeSantis, la esposa de Ron DeSantis, el gobernador de Florida y principal rival de Trump. Casey DeSantis es una asesora cercana de su marido, una presencia habitual en sus eventos y ha empezado a aparecer por su cuenta en actos de campaña a favor de él. En una de sus escasas entrevistas, Melania Trump reflexionó en Fox News sobre la posibilidad de volver a ser primera dama y afirmó que, de tener una segunda oportunidad en el cargo, “priorizaría el bienestar y el desarrollo de los niños”.Melania Trump ha mostrado curiosidad en privado por Casey DeSantis, quien ha pasado tiempo haciendo campaña junto a su marido, Ron DeSantis.Rachel Mummey para The New York TimesPero aún no le ha dado prioridad a la campaña. Aunque se ha mostrado dispuesta a participar en eventos para su marido el año que viene, hasta ahora ha rechazado sus invitaciones a los actos de campaña.“No creo que vaya a ser nada parecido a lo que hemos visto con Casey DeSantis”, dijo Stephanie Grisham, una exasistente de Trump que renunció el 6 de enero. “No va a dejarse ver en jeans ni a caminar en desfiles”.Kellyanne Conway, asesora de Trump desde hace años y cercana a Melania Trump, dijo que la ex primera dama apoya “por completo” la candidatura de su marido y seguía siendo su “consejera de mayor confianza y más transparente”. Comentó que el matrimonio ha discutido en privado las “prioridades” de un segundo mandato.“Conozco pocas personas tan seguras de sí mismas como Melania Trump”, dijo Conway, quien no trabaja para la campaña. “Ella sabe quién es y mantiene sus prioridades bajo control. Melania los mantiene a la expectativa y siguen interpretándola mal”.Ese aire de misterio se extiende a las comunidades cerradas de los clubes de su esposo. En Palm Beach, Melania Trump no forma parte del circuito social, afirmó Lore Smith, una agente de bienes raíces de Palm Beach desde hace mucho tiempo, la cual visita con frecuencia el club.A diferencia de sus predecesoras modernas, que asistían a clases de gimnasia o de spinning, a Melania Trump no se le ve en el gimnasio y no se tiene información de que tenga un entrenador, según otros asiduos del club y exayudantes. Durante mucho tiempo ha sido fanática de los días que pasa en el spa, pero casi nunca se le ve afuera en la piscina en Mar-a-Lago o Bedminster, el campo de golf y resort de Trump en Nueva Jersey. De vez en cuando, hace breves apariciones en eventos de caridad en Mar-a-Lago junto a su esposo.“Son muy reservados detrás de los confines de Mar-a-Lago”, dijo Smith.Melania Trump no forma parte del circuito social en Mar-a-Lago, el club privado de su esposo. Se dice que prefiere Nueva York.Saul Martinez para The New York TimesMelania Trump sigue muy involucrada con la educación de Barron. Su hijo está inscrito en una escuela privada en West Palm Beach y está empezando a buscar universidades en Nueva York.Se dice que Melania Trump prefiere la ciudad a Mar-a-Lago o Bedminster. Se le ha visto yendo a su peluquero y entrando y saliendo de la Torre Trump, lo cual hace a través de una entrada lateral especial y un ascensor privado.Fuera de las residencias familiares, la agenda pública de Melania Trump ha sido limitada. Ha participado en un puñado de eventos, incluida la recaudación de 500.000 dólares en tarifas el año pasado de Log Cabin Republicans, un grupo conservador que apoya los derechos de la comunidad LGBT, y Fix California, una organización electoral fundada por Richard Grenell, ex alto funcionario del gobierno de Trump. Grenell se negó a comentar sobre la aparición de la ex primera dama en los eventos.En febrero de 2022, Melania Trump inició “Fostering the Future”, un programa de becas para niños de acogida que ya están a punto de cumplir la edad máxima para pertenecer al sistema. Una persona familiarizada con el programa, que habló bajo condición de anonimato, no ofreció detalles ni reveló cuántas becas se otorgaron, y solo afirmó que fueron “más de dos”. No existe ninguna organización benéfica con el nombre “Fostering the Future” o “Be Best” registrada en Florida o Nueva York.Michael Weitzman, el primer beneficiario de una de las becas, dijo que recibió financiación durante cuatro años en la Universidad Oral Roberts a través de un mentor, que conocía a un amigo relacionado con los Trump. “Me preguntó si ir a la universidad todavía era un sueño para mí”, contó Weitzman, quien pasó su infancia viviendo en 12 hogares de acogida. “Dijo que podría conocer a alguien realmente rico que podría querer pagar para que yo fuera”.Weitzman no llenó ningún tipo de solicitud, pero un día después de que el mentor le planteó la idea, recibió un correo electrónico del equipo de relaciones públicas de Melania Trump, preguntándole si estaba dispuesto a participar en una entrevista de Fox News con la ex primera dama, la primera desde que dejó la Casa Blanca. La beca se anunció durante la entrevista de mayo de 2022, con la participación de Weitzman a través de Zoom. Weitzman, de 26 años, dijo que no había tenido ninguna interacción con Melania Trump desde entonces.“No la he conocido en persona. A menudo me preguntaba si lo haría y me encantaría”, dijo. “Estoy más que agradecido. No hay ninguna razón por la que alguien tendría que haber hecho esto por mí”.Los asistentes de Melania Trump se negaron a discutir los detalles de sus planes de campaña, sus emprendimientos benéficos y comerciales y sus puntos de vista sobre los problemas legales de su esposo. Los voceros de la campaña de Donald Trump se negaron a comentar.Melania Trump y Barron Trump asistieron al lanzamiento de la campaña de Donald Trump en noviembre. Desde entonces, la ex primera dama ha dicho poco sobre la campaña de su esposo para la Casa Blanca.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressEn muchos sentidos, la vida de Melania Trump posterior a la Casa Blanca es una extensión de su estilo como primera dama.Desde el comienzo del mandato de su esposo, cuando no se mudó de inmediato a la Casa Blanca, Melania Trump constantemente vaciló entre dos extremos: aceptar de lleno su papel o desafiar todas las expectativas asociadas con él.Uno de sus momentos más memorables se realizó a través de una declaración de moda. Cuando regresaba de una visita a un pueblo fronterizo de Texas para encontrarse con niños migrantes detenidos, vistió una chaqueta estampada con la frase: “Realmente no me importa. ¿Y a ti?Gran parte de su experiencia en la Casa Blanca estuvo marcada por lo que personas cercanas a ella describieron como decepción y traición por parte de amigos, ayudantes e incluso miembros de la familia Trump. En ocasiones, su relación con Ivanka Trump y Jared Kushner, la hija y el yerno de Trump, fue tensa, según exasesores. Desde entonces, su exsecretaria de prensa, Grisham, y una exayudante y amiga, Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, han escrito libros reveladores que la describen como fría y desconectada de su cargo.Esas experiencias empujaron a Melania Trump a ocultarse aún más del ojo público, aseguraron personas vinculadas con la familia.Melania Trump es “la primera dama más francamente desconocida”, dijo la autora de un libro sobre el tema. “Hay algo radical en ello”.Doug Mills/The New York TimesPero esa privacidad puede ser difícil de mantener bajo el escrutinio de unas contenciosas primarias presidenciales y las investigaciones legales.Recientemente, Chris Christie criticó a ambos Trump por un pago de 155.000 dólares a Melania Trump de parte de un comité de acción política alineado con la campaña de su esposo. Un representante del comité dijo que Melania Trump fue contratada en 2021 para “consultoría de diseño”, incluida la elección de vajillas, distribución de asientos y arreglos florales.“Existe la estafa y luego existe la estafa al estilo de los Trump”, escribió Christie, el exgobernador de Nueva Jersey y el crítico más abierto de Trump en el campo de las primarias republicanas de 2024, en Twitter. “Son los campeones indiscutibles”.La mayor parte de su perfil público, realizado casi siempre a través de sus cuentas de redes sociales, se centra en la venta de una variedad de cromos virtuales. Sus NFT, o tokens no fungibles, incluyen dibujos digitales de sus ojos, un sombrero de ala ancha que usó durante una visita de estado, adornos navideños de la Casa Blanca y una rosa azul destinada a conmemorar el Mes Nacional del Programa de Acogida.La mayoría de sus tuits y publicaciones de Instagram promocionan directamente los NFT o una empresa llamada USA Memorabilia, que los vende. Un día después de que su esposo anunciara en su red social, Truth Social, que había recibido una notificación de la investigación federal sobre sus esfuerzos para frustrar la transferencia de poder en 2020, el único comentario público de Melania Trump fue el anuncio de una nueva colección de NFT: “Hombre en la Luna”.Una parte de sus ganancias se destina a donaciones, aunque sus asistentes no proporcionaron detalles sobre la cantidad ni especificaron a qué organización benéfica.Si bien las primeras damas a menudo sacan provecho de la fama que viene con el cargo, la empresa lucrativa de Trump es diferente de la de sus predecesores, dijo Kate Andersen Brower, autora del libro First Women: The Grace and Power of America’s Modern First Ladies.Según los informes, a Michelle Obama se le pagó más de 60 millones de dólares en un acuerdo de libro conjunto con su esposo, además de recibir cientos de miles de dólares por discursos y firmar un lucrativo acuerdo de producción con Netflix. Laura Bush y Hillary Clinton también vendieron sus memorias por millones. Sus memorias y discursos pagados requerían que las ex primeras damas compartieran algunos detalles sobre sí mismas, sus puntos de vista y sus vidas en la Casa Blanca.Simplemente vendiendo imágenes, Melania Trump no tiene que revelar nada.Eso es exactamente lo que prefiere, dijo Brower.“Ella es la primera dama más francamente desconocida”, dijo sobre la personalidad pública de Melania Trump. “Hay algo radical al respecto. Se espera que las primeras damas quieran complacer a la gente y no estoy seguro de que eso a ella realmente le importe”.Maggie Haberman More

A Times/Siena poll suggests a slight Biden edge among voters who don’t like either candidate.Will they stick with the same candidates in 2024?Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesAfter Democrats fared well against MAGA candidates in the midterms last year, it might have been reasonable to think that President Biden would have a clear advantage in a rematch against Donald J. Trump.Yet despite the stop-the-steal movement, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the numerous investigations facing Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are still tied, each at 43 percent, among registered voters in our first Times/Siena poll of the 2024 election cycle.The possibility that criminal indictments haven’t crippled Mr. Trump’s general election chances might come as a surprise or even a shock, but the result is worth taking seriously. It does not seem to be a fluke: Our Times/Siena polls last fall — which were notably accurate — also showed a very close race in a possible presidential rematch, including a one-point lead for Mr. Trump among registered voters in our final October survey.Mr. Trump’s resilience is not necessarily an indication of his strength. In most respects, he appears to be a badly wounded general election candidate. Just 41 percent of registered voters say they have a favorable view of him, while a majority believe he committed serious federal crimes and say his conduct after the last election went so far that it threatened American democracy.But Mr. Biden shows little strength of his own. His favorability rating is only two points higher than Mr. Trump’s. And despite an improving economy, his approval rating is only 39 percent — a mere two points higher than it was in our poll in October, before the midterm election. At least for now, he seems unable to capitalize on his opponent’s profound vulnerability.Democrats can’t necessarily assume the race will snap back into a clear Biden lead once people tune into the race, either. The 14 percent of voters who didn’t back Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump consisted mostly of people who volunteered — even though it wasn’t provided as an option in the poll — that they would vote for someone else or simply wouldn’t vote if those were the candidates. They know the candidates; they just don’t want either of them.As I mentioned to my colleague David Leonhardt for The Morning newsletter, it’s reasonable to believe that Mr. Biden has the better path to winning over more of these voters. They dislike Mr. Trump more than they dislike Mr. Biden, and the political environment, including promising economic news, seems increasingly favorable to Mr. Biden. But it hasn’t happened yet.And the upside for Mr. Biden among the dissenting 14 percent of voters isn’t necessarily as great as it might look. He leads by a mere two points — 47 percent to 45 percent — if we reassign these voters to Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden based on how they say they voted in the 2020 election. And Mr. Biden still leads by two points, 49-47, if we further restrict the poll to those who actually voted in 2020 or 2022.A two-point edge is certainly better for Mr. Biden than a tie, but it’s not exactly a commanding advantage. It’s closer than his 4.5-point popular vote win in 2020, and it’s well within a range in which Mr. Trump can win in the key battleground states, where he has usually done better than he has nationwide.The survey suggests that the electorate remains deeply divided along the demographic fault lines of the 2020 presidential election, with Mr. Trump commanding a wide lead among white voters without a college degree, while Mr. Biden counters with an advantage among nonwhite voters and white college graduates.To the extent the survey suggests a slightly closer race than four years ago, it appears mostly attributable to modest Trump gains among Black, Hispanic, male and low-income voters. The sample sizes of these subgroups are relatively small, but we’ve seen signs of Trump strength among these groups before. In some cases, like Hispanic and lower-income voters, they’re groups that have already trended toward Republicans during the Trump era. It would hardly be a surprise if those trends continued. Here again, it’s a story worth taking seriously.Of course, this doesn’t mean it’s “predictive” of the final result, certainly not with 15 months to go. What it means, however, is that Mr. Trump doesn’t appear to have sustained disqualifying damage — at least when matched against a president with a 39 percent approval rating. For now, it suggests that the Biden campaign can’t necessarily count on anti-Trump sentiment alone; it may need to do some work to reassemble and mobilize a winning coalition. More

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, has been struggling to gain traction in a crowded Republican field dominated by Donald Trump.A super PAC supporting Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign said on Tuesday that it had reserved more than $13 million in television and digital ads in Iowa and New Hampshire starting in August. The outlay is the first major advertising push in support of Ms. Haley since she became the first Republican to challenge former President Donald J. Trump this year.The group, SFA Fund Inc., is pouring $7 million into ads in Iowa and $6.2 million into ads in New Hampshire that will run over the next nine weeks. The first television ad features Ms. Haley, 51, a former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, talking tough on China at a political rally, arguing that the country’s leaders “want to cover the world in communist tyranny.”A voice-over says, “Nikki Haley: tough as nails, smart as a whip, unafraid to speak the truth.”Polls show Ms. Haley stuck in the single digits in a primary race that has been dominated by Mr. Trump.The first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign showed Mr. Trump with the support of 54 percent of likely Republican primary voters, while Ms. Haley trailed far behind with just 3 percent, the same level of support as former Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.Ms. Haley has until now relied on free television and press coverage that has come from her brisk clip of events and appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire, where she has spent more time campaigning than most of her rivals.In a memo published this month, Mark Harris, SFA Fund’s lead strategist, said the group was gearing up to begin “an aggressive voter contact campaign” as Ms. Haley enters the next phase of the race. “Nikki Haley understands that China’s growing influence poses a monumental threat to the United States,” Mr. Harris said in a statement announcing the ads.In Iowa, Republican campaigns have spent $31.8 million so far this year, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. The $7 million campaign would make SFA Fund the second-largest spender in the state, behind only Mr. Scott’s Trust in the Mission PAC, or TIM PAC, which has spent more than $15.3 million. Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, has spent the next-highest amount, with $3.4 million in ads.Spending in New Hampshire has totaled only $3.4 million. TIM PAC has been the largest spender there, too, having invested $1.1 million in ads.Ms. Haley raised $7.3 million through her presidential campaign and affiliated committees from April through June, a modest sum that nevertheless revealed her robust appeal to small donors. SFA Fund had $17 million in cash on hand as of the end of June. More

Looking more closely at the registered voters who don’t support Biden or Trump.The first Times poll of the 2024 election cycle shows a dead heat between President Biden and Donald Trump. If those two men are the presidential nominees next year, 43 percent of registered voters say they will support Biden, and 43 percent say they will back Trump.But 43 plus 43 obviously does not equal 100. There are also 14 percent of registered voters who declined to choose either candidate. Some of them said that they would not vote next year. Others said they would support a third-party candidate. Still others declined to answer the poll question.You can think of this 14 percent as the Neither of the Above voters, at least for now. In the end, a significant number of them probably will vote for Biden or Trump and go a long way toward determining who occupies the White House in 2025.In today’s newsletter, I will profile this Neither of the Above — or NOTA — group, with help from charts by my colleague Ashley Wu.Unhappy with TrumpPerhaps the most notable characteristic of NOTA voters is that they are highly critical of Trump. By definition, they are also unenthusiastic about Biden. But they are considerably less happy with Trump:Favorability of Biden vs. TrumpShare of respondents with a very or somewhat favorable opinion of each candidate More

Shannon Lin, Lynsea Garrison and Marion Lozano, Elisheba Ittoop and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Amazon MusicHow did the National Rifle Association, America’s most influential gun-rights group, amass its power?A New York Times investigation has revealed the secret history of how a fusty club of sportsmen became a lobbying juggernaut that would compel elected officials’ allegiance, derail legislation behind the scenes, and redefine the legal landscape.Mike McIntire, an investigative reporter for The Times, sets out the story of the N.R.A.’s transformation — and the unseen role that members of Congress played in designing the group’s strategies.On today’s episodeMike McIntire, an investigative reporter for The New York Times.National Rifle Association members take their seats for the Leadership Forum at the NRA Convention in the Indianapolis Convention Center.Kaiti Sullivan for The New York TimesBackground readingOver decades, a small group of legislators led by a prominent Democrat pushed the gun lobby to help transform the law, the courts and views on the Second Amendment.The potential Republican 2024 presidential candidates showed strong support for gun owners’ rights — a core issue for the party’s base, but one that can be a tougher sell in a general election.There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Mike McIntire More

A New York Times/Siena College poll found that President Biden is on stronger footing than he was a year ago — but he is neck-and-neck in a possible rematch against Donald Trump.President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.Mr. Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else.Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing and a friendlier national environment, Mr. Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.Mr. Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Mr. Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 percent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, a segment with which Mr. Biden had a narrow lead.John Wittman, 42, a heating and air conditioning contractor in Phoenix, is a Republican but said he would vote for Mr. Biden if former President Donald J. Trump were the Republican nominee. Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times“Donald Trump is not a Republican, he’s a criminal,” said John Wittman, 42, a heating and air conditioning contractor from Phoenix. A Republican, he said that even though he believed Mr. Biden’s economic stewardship had hurt the country, “I will vote for anyone on the planet that seems halfway capable of doing the job, including Joe Biden, over Donald Trump.”To borrow an old political cliché, the poll shows that Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep. About 30 percent of voters who said they planned to vote for Mr. Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. Just 20 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Mr. Biden were the party’s 2024 presidential nominee; another 51 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.A higher share of Democrats, 26 percent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.Mr. Biden had the backing of 64 percent of Democrats who planned to participate in their party’s primary, an indicator of soft support for an incumbent president. Thirteen percent preferred Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 10 percent chose Marianne Williamson.Among Democratic poll respondents who have a record of voting in a primary before, Mr. Biden enjoyed a far wider lead — 74 percent to 8 percent. He was ahead by 92 percent to 4 percent among those who voted in a Democratic primary in 2022.The lack of fervor about Mr. Biden helps explain the relatively weak showing among small donors in a quarterly fund-raising report his campaign released two weeks ago.A common view toward Mr. Biden is illustrated in voters like Melody Marquess, 54, a retiree and left-leaning independent from Tyler, Texas. Ms. Marquess, who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 as “the lesser of two evils,” was not happy about his handling of the pandemic, blaming him for inflation and a tight labor market. Still, she said she would again vote for Mr. Biden, who is 80 years old, over Mr. Trump, who is 77.“I’m sorry, but both of them, to me, are too old,” she said. “Joe Biden to me seems less mentally capable, age-wise. But Trump is just evil. He’s done horrible things.”More Democrats Support Biden As Nominee Than a Year AgoDemocrats who think their party should renominate Joseph R. Biden in 2024 More

The share of Republicans saying the former president has committed “serious federal crimes” has grown modestly, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.Donald J. Trump famously marveled during his first presidential campaign that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and he would not lose any support.He now seems intent on testing the premise of unwavering loyalty behind that statement.The federal charges against the former president seem to have cost him few, if any, votes in the 2024 election, even as the number of Republicans who think he has committed serious federal crimes has ticked up.He continues to hold strong in a hypothetical general election matchup, despite the fact that 17 percent of voters who prefer him over President Biden think either that he has committed serious federal crimes or that he threatened democracy with his actions after the 2020 election, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.“I think he’s committed crimes,” said Joseph Derito, 81, of Elmira, N.Y. “I think he’s done terrible things. But he’s also done a lot of good.”Despite his distaste for the former president, Mr. Derito said he was likely to vote for Mr. Trump again. The alternative, he said, is far less palatable.“I used to lean toward the Democratic Party because they were for the working middle class,” he said. Now, he added, “I don’t like Trump, but I like the Democrats a lot less.”Voter Attitudes About the Trump InvestigationsThinking about the investigations into Donald J. Trump, do you think that he has or has not committed any serious federal crimes? More