Elections

Way back in 2020, a plank of Joe Biden’s successful presidential campaign was restoring bipartisanship in Congress. If all goes well for the president this week, he may soon have the chance to sign the types of compromise legislation he promised Americans.Chief among these would be the gun control measure senators negotiated over the weekend, which looks like it can get the 10 Republican votes needed to overcome a filibuster by others in the party opposed to the legislation, and which the Senate majority leader has said will be put up for consideration as soon as possible.More immediately, the House could today vote to increase security for the supreme court after a man was arrested on charges of trying to kill justice Brett Kavanaugh, ahead of the court’s expected rulings that could curb abortion and expand gun rights. The bill has already passed the Senate unanimously.Biden’s supporters would also point to the Republican votes for last year’s infrastructure overhaul as a sign of his success in uniting the parties around issues affecting all Americans. But it’s worth pointing out the massive American Rescue Plan spending bill won no Republican support, nor did Build Back Better, the president’s marquee spending plan that ended up floundering because Democrats themselves could not find consensus over it.The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden will meet Saudia Arabia’s crown prince and de-factor ruler Mohammed bin Salman on his visit to the country.“Yes, we can expect the President to see the crown prince as well,” Biden’s press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Air Force One.The announcement is significant because relations between the two men have often been frosty. As my colleague Julian Borger reported, Prince Mohammed “reportedly declined to take a call from Joe Biden last month, showing his displeasure at the administration’s restrictions on arms sales; what he saw as its insufficient response to attacks on Saudi Arabia by Houthi forces in Yemen; its publication of a report into the Saudi regime’s 2018 murder of the dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi; and Biden’s prior refusal to deal in person with the crown prince.”Prince Mohammed may also be banking on a return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024, whose prior administration was much friendlier with Riyadh.Saudis’ Biden snub suggests crown prince still banking on Trump’s returnRead moreThe postponed January 6 hearing will likely take place next week, committee member Pete Aguilar said.Speaking at a press conference of the House Democratic Caucus Leaders, the California Democrat downplayed the impact of the hearing’s postponement. “The schedule has always been fluid. So we’re going to move forward and have a Thursday hearing and then get ready for hearings next week as well,” he said, predicting the session originally set for Wednesday will “move to likely next week.”He didn’t elaborate on the reasons for the change in schedule, but said, “We just want to make sure that you all have the time and space to digest all the information that we’re putting out there.”The committee’s next hearing is scheduled for Thursday, June 16.Sometime soon, perhaps as soon as tomorrow, the supreme court will hand down a decision that could dismantle or greatly weaken abortion rights codified by Roe v Wade. If that happens, The Guardian’s Poppy Noor reports that prosecutors in a number of states are preparing to act to keep abortion accessible.Michigan’s attorney general, Dana Nessel, never thought she would have an abortion. But after finding herself pregnant with triplets in 2002, she faced an unenviable choice: abort one, or miscarry all three. “I took my doctor’s advice, which I should have been able to do,” she says in a phone interview.Nessel plans to protect that same right for residents of her state if Roe v Wade is overturned this summer, as a leaked supreme court draft opinion indicates is all but certain.If the draft opinion stands, 26 states are likely or certain to ban abortion. In Michigan, a 1931 law would be triggered, making abortion illegal in almost all cases except to save the life of the pregnant person.Nessel says she won’t enforce the ban in Michigan, along with at least a dozen law enforcement officials across the country – a bold statement that sets the US up for a complex legal landscape with different enforcement regimes in different states, and even within them.These officials are likely to face swift backlash from the right, including, in some cases, retaliation from state authorities who will demand they enforce the law as written. But they are determined to press ahead.‘This is not hopeless’: the progressive prosecutors who vow not to enforce abortion bansRead moreAt its hearing yesterday, the January 6 committee built its case that Trump knew his fraud claims were baseless but pushed them anyway, fueling the attack on the Capitol. My colleague Lauren Gambino reports on how the hearing’s revelations may not be enough to dislodge belief in the “Big Lie” from the Republican party.The House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection charged on Monday that Donald Trump “lit the fuse” that fueled the most violent assault on the US Capitol in more than two centuries with his groundless claim that the election was stolen.For those tuned in, the committee meticulously charted the origins and spread of Trump’s “big lie”, tapping a trove of evidence and interviews to show that the former president was told repeatedly that the election had been free and fair and peddled his myths anyway.But in Republican politics and the conservative media ecosystem, Trump’s myth of a stolen election rages on, uncontrolled in the Republican party as it seeks to surge back into power in November’s midterm elections.Despite January 6 panel’s efforts to stamp out Trump’s big lie, the myth rages on Read moreThe January 6 committee has announced the postponement of its hearing scheduled for Wednesday.JUST IN: Jan. 6 committee says hearing on June 15 at 10a ET — Wednesday’s hearing — has been postponed. No explanation at the moment.— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) June 14, 2022
This was supposed to be hearing #3 where the Jan. 6 committee would show how Trump pressured DOJ to investigate election fraud with former acting AG Rosen, his deputy Donoghue, and former assistant AG Engel as witnesses.— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) June 14, 2022
Committee member Zoe Lofgren blames technical reasons for the delay.Jan 6 committee member @RepZoeLofgren says on @Morning_Joe that postponement of tomorrow’s hearing on the DOJ done for technical reasons – they have to give the video team time to work, basically— Garrett Haake (@GarrettHaake) June 14, 2022
It’s official: President Joe Biden will visit Saudi Arabia, a country he once vowed to turn into “a pariah” but which may play a crucial role in lowering US pump prices from their record levels.The visit, which will be coupled with a trip to Israel, comes as Biden’s approval rating slumps due to a wave of inflation caused in part by energy prices that have risen since Russia invaded Ukraine. Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer, and Biden is looking for ways to increase the global oil supply to lower pump prices at home.Biden to visit Saudi Arabia in push to lower oil prices and punish RussiaRead moreThere’s no hint of this dynamic in the White House statement announcing the trip, which focuses on Saudia Arabia chairing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regional group.“The President will… travel to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which is the current chair of the GCC and the venue for this gathering of nine leaders from across the region, at the invitation of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. The President appreciates King Salman’s leadership and his invitation. He looks forward to this important visit to Saudi Arabia, which has been a strategic partner of the United States for nearly eight decades,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre wrote.In Israel, Biden “will meet with Israeli leaders to discuss Israel’s security, prosperity, and its increasing integration into the greater region. The President will also visit the West Bank to consult with the Palestinian Authority and to reiterate his strong support for a two-state solution, with equal measures of security, freedom, and opportunity for the Palestinian people,” according to the statement.Biden’s ire towards Riyadh has centered on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.Way back in 2020, a plank of Joe Biden’s successful presidential campaign was restoring bipartisanship in Congress. If all goes well for the president this week, he may soon have the chance to sign the types of compromise legislation he promised Americans.Chief among these would be the gun control measure senators negotiated over the weekend, which looks like it can get the 10 Republican votes needed to overcome a filibuster by others in the party opposed to the legislation, and which the Senate majority leader has said will be put up for consideration as soon as possible.More immediately, the House could today vote to increase security for the supreme court after a man was arrested on charges of trying to kill justice Brett Kavanaugh, ahead of the court’s expected rulings that could curb abortion and expand gun rights. The bill has already passed the Senate unanimously.Biden’s supporters would also point to the Republican votes for last year’s infrastructure overhaul as a sign of his success in uniting the parties around issues affecting all Americans. But it’s worth pointing out the massive American Rescue Plan spending bill won no Republican support, nor did Build Back Better, the president’s marquee spending plan that ended up floundering because Democrats themselves could not find consensus over it.Good morning, US Politics blog readers. Over the past few days, the January 6 committee has used its hearings to make the case that former president Donald Trump bears responsibility for the attack on the Capitol. But while he’s the most prominent promoter of the baseless claim that the 2020 election was stolen, an analysis published today by the Washington Post shows at least 108 Republicans candidates for statewide office or Congress also share that belief.Here’s what else is going on today:
Senators are considering a bipartisan gun control compromise announced over the weekend that’s thought to have enough support to pass the evenly divided chamber. The bill has yet to be written, but it would represent Washington’s response to the mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas, and Buffalo, New York.
The House is expected to today approve a bill to increase security for the supreme court following the arrest of a man who was charged with planning to kill Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
The January 6 committee is taking a break from its hearings today, but will convene again on Wednesday. Expect more reactions today from across Washington to yesterday’s hearing, which focused on Trump’s promotion of fraud claims that his own officials said were baseless.
Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina will be holding primary elections ahead of the 8 November midterms, which will be decisive in determining the course of Washington politics over the next two years.
The Federal Reserve is beginning its two-day meeting and could decide to make a big interest rate increase to fight the runaway inflation that’s badly damaged Biden’s standing with voters. The central bankers announce their decision Wednesday at 2pm ET. More

Nervous that you forgot to register to vote? Don’t sweat it. North Dakota does not require people to register to vote.How to voteEligible voters can cast a ballot today by providing “acceptable identification,” at their polling site, according to North Dakota’s secretary of state. That includes a locally issued driver’s license, a state identification card or a tribal, government-issued identification card.If you used an absentee or mail ballot, check its status on this page. The deadline to return such ballots was Monday. Request an absentee or mail ballot for future elections here.Where to voteUse this site to find your voting place.What’s on the ballotRepublicans will pick a nominee for Senate, as well as secretary of state. Depending on where you live, you may also pick candidates for state legislative and local offices.This site will show you your sample ballot. More

Nevada voters can weigh in on some key contests today. Here’s a last-minute guide for Election Day.How to voteAll registered voters in Nevada should have received a ballot by mail, unless they requested to opt out, according to Nevada’s secretary of state.Voters can use this page to check the status of their ballots and to check their voter registration status. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by today and received by the county clerk’s office, or registrar of voters, by 5 p.m. local time on Saturday, according to the secretary of state’s office.Didn’t register yet? That’s OK. Nevada offers same-day registration for people casting ballots in person.Where to voteVoters can use this site to find their polling place.What’s on the ballotVoters will be asked to pick candidates for governor, secretary of state, Senate and, depending on where they live, members of the House of Representatives.To see your sample ballot, use this site. More

Maine offers same-day voter registration, so there’s still time to cast a ballot in person today.How to voteNot sure if you’re registered to vote? You can check here. If you’re not registered, don’t worry. The secretary of state’s website says, “There is no cutoff date for registering to vote in person at your town office or city hall.”The deadline to apply for an absentee ballot, however, was last week. You can go here to request an absentee ballot for future elections.To check the status of your absentee ballot, visit this page.Where to voteThis site will help you find your voting place.Absentee ballots must be returned to your municipal clerk by 8 p.m. on Election Day, according Maine’s secretary of state.What’s on the ballotRepublicans in Maine’s Second Congressional District will pick a nominee to run against Representative Jared Golden, a Democrat, in November. Depending on where you live, you may also pick a nominee for a state legislative or local office.To see which candidates will appear on your ballot, use this site (it’s also the site that allows you to find your polling location). More

The marquee races on Tuesday are taking place in South Carolina, where two Republican House members are facing Trump-backed challengers, and in Nevada, where Republicans are aiming to sweep a host of Democratic-held seats in the November general election.Voters in Maine and North Dakota will also go to the polls, and in Texas, Republicans hope to grab the Rio Grande Valley seat of Representative Filemon Vela, a Democrat who resigned in March.The primary season has had more extensive Election Days, but Tuesday has plenty of drama. Here is what to watch.In South Carolina, a showdown with TrumpRepresentatives Tom Rice and Nancy Mace crossed former President Donald J. Trump in the opening days of 2021 as the cleanup crews were still clearing debris from the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol. Mr. Rice was perhaps the biggest surprise vote in favor of impeachment — as a conservative in a very conservative district, he was risking his political career.Ms. Mace voted against impeachment, but in her first speech in Congress that January, she said the House needed to “hold the president accountable” for the Capitol attack.So Mr. Trump backed two primary challengers: State Representative Russell Fry against Mr. Rice, and the conservative Katie Arrington against Ms. Mace.Representative Tom Rice speaking with supporters in Conway, S.C., last week.Madeline Gray for The New York TimesIn Ms. Mace’s case, the Trump world is divided. Mr. Trump’s first United Nations ambassador, Nikki Haley, and one of his chiefs of staff, Mick Mulvaney, both South Carolinians, are backing the incumbent freshman.That is, in part, because Ms. Arrington has a poor track record: In 2018, after beating then-Representative Mark Sanford in the Republican primary after he castigated Mr. Trump, she then lost in November to a Democrat, Joe Cunningham. (Mr. Cunningham, who was defeated by Ms. Mace in 2020, is hoping for a comeback this year with a long-shot bid to defeat the incumbent governor, Henry McMaster.)Republicans worry that an Arrington victory on Tuesday could jeopardize the seat, which stretches from Charleston down the affluent South Carolina coast.Mr. Rice’s path to victory on Tuesday will be considerably harder, but he remains defiant about his impeachment vote. “Defending the Constitution is a bedrock of the Republican platform. Defend the Constitution, and that’s what I did. That was the conservative vote,” he said in a June 5 interview on ABC’s “This Week,” adding, “There’s no question in my mind.”Battleground NevadaCalifornia may have a larger number of seats in play, but no state is as thoroughly up for grabs as Nevada. Three out of four of the state’s House seats are rated tossups — all three of which are now held by Democrats. Other tossup races include the Senate seat held by Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, and the governorship held by Steve Sisolak, also a Democrat. A Republican sweep would do real damage, not only to the Democrats’ narrow hold on Congress, but also to their chances in the 2024 presidential election if Nevada is close: It’s better to have the governor of a state on your side than on the other side.But first, Republican voters need to sort through a vast array of candidates vying for each position. Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of Las Vegas’s Clark County, is the favorite for the Republican nomination to challenge Mr. Sisolak. He has Mr. Trump’s endorsement and echoes Mr. Trump’s language in his pledge to “take our state back.”Eight candidates are vying to challenge Ms. Cortez Masto, but Adam Laxalt, the former Nevada attorney general who lost to Mr. Sisolak in 2018, is clearly favored.Adam Laxalt, a Republican Senate candidate, with supporters in Moapa Valley, Nev., last week.Joe Buglewicz for The New York TimesRepresentative Dina Titus, a Democrat, also has eight Republicans competing to challenge her, including a former House member, Cresent Hardy. But it’s Carolina Serrano, a Colombian American immigrant, who has the backing of Republican leaders and the Trump world alike, with endorsements from Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, the party’s No. 3 House leader, as well as Mr. Laxalt and Richard Grenell, a pugilistic former national security official in the Trump administration.Five Republicans hope to challenge Representative Susie Lee, a Democrat. Among them, April Becker, a real estate lawyer, has raised the most money by far and has the backing of the House Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, as well as Ms. Stefanik, Ms. Haley and Mr. Laxalt.The potential G.O.P. challengers to Representative Steven Horsford, a Democrat, are most clearly divided between the Trump fringe and the party’s mainstream. Sam Peters, an insurance agent, is backed by the far-right Arizona congressmen Paul Gosar and Andy Biggs, who both have been tied to extremist groups, as well as the right-wing rocker Ted Nugent. Annie Black, an assemblywoman running in the primary against Mr. Peters, is more mainstream.A harbinger brewing in South TexasWhen Mr. Vela decided to resign from the House instead of serving out the rest of his term, he most likely did not know the stakes he was creating for the special election to fill his seat for the remaining months of this year.Republicans are trying to make a statement, pouring money into the traditionally Democratic Rio Grande Valley district to support Mayra Flores. She has raised 16 times the amount logged by her closest Democratic competitor, Dan Sanchez.A campaign sign for Mayra Flores in Brownsville during the Texas primary in March.Denise Cathey/The Brownsville Herald, via Associated PressA Flores victory would be proclaimed by Republicans as a sign of worse to come for Democrats in November.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

Not sure if you can vote? Or where? We’ve got you covered. Here is a handy, last-minute guide to voting in South Carolina.How to votePolls close in South Carolina at 7 p.m. Eastern time. People who are in line at their polling location at that time will be allowed to vote.The deadline to register to vote is at least 30 days before any election. Not sure if you’re registered? You can check on this page, with your name, date of birth and part of your Social Security number.If you used an absentee ballot, you can track its status here. Want to use an absentee ballot in the future? Here are the guidelines.Where to voteYou can find polling places near you on this site (it’s the same as where you check your voter registration status).According to the South Carolina secretary of state’s website, absentee ballots must be received by the county voter registration office by 7 p.m. Eastern time on Election Day.What’s on the ballotThere are a number of races for statewide office, as well as many local contests. You’ll be asked to make your pick for governor and House races, among others.Find a personalized sample ballot on this site. More

A survey by election researchers argues that efforts to confuse or scare away prospective voters disproportionately target minority groups in battleground states.When it comes to elections, disinformation is not just a problem online.Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin argue in a new report that disinformation targeting communities of color in three battleground states circulated as often through traditional sources of information, complicating efforts to fight it.The misleading information was included in mailings and campaign advertisements in newspapers, radio, television and even billboards. Those efforts are more likely to reach voters in those communities than targeted disinformation campaigns on the internet.“Online disinformation is just one small piece of the puzzle,” said Rachel Goodman of Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan organization that commissioned the report. “There are many other failures in the information ecosystem that allow disinformation about elections to thrive.”False or misleading information about registering and voting is so pervasive, the researchers said, that it amounts to what they call “structural disinformation.” It affects not only elections but also other issues, like health care, creating information gaps that those propagating disinformation can exploit.The report argued that poor dissemination of changes in voting rules “creates openings for targeted disinformation and innocent misunderstandings which will keep members of that community from exercising their rights.”The report, based on surveys of election activists in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, also cited direct mailings sent to Black voters in Milwaukee containing false information about voting, though they were made to look like official documents.Billboards in Wisconsin wrongly warned that people with felony convictions could not vote after completing their sentences. In rural parts of Arizona, Native American voters had trouble providing proof of residence because they lived in places without United States Postal Service addresses.Changes to state election laws, like the one in Georgia that Republican lawmakers enacted after Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s presidential victory in 2020, are likely to compound the problem.“Structural disinformation, particularly structural disinformation related to the right to vote, has a disproportionate impact on communities of color and other historically marginalized communities,” the report said.The findings suggested that efforts to rebut disinformation should not be limited to online services. The researchers said the most effective measures involved direct contact with prospective voters — in person, at events or through direct mailings. Those efforts are expensive and labor intensive, however.The cumulative effect of disinformation and partisan controversy over elections has been to create distrust and demoralization, dampening turnout and eroding confidence in the government more broadly.“The low turnout rates and things that we see happening now in their states and their communities are at least in large part due to the ways in which over the course of time disinformation has made their communities skeptical of the American democratic system,” said one of the researchers, Samuel Woolley, the program director of propaganda research at the Center for Media Engagement at the University of Texas at Austin. More

Previo a las elecciones hay un escenario riesgoso: por un lado, el presidente y líderes militares sostienen que el voto se presta al fraude. Por otro, jueces, diplomáticos extranjeros y periodistas advierten que Bolsonaro prepara el terreno para intentar un golpe de Estado.RÍO DE JANEIRO — Durante meses, el presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, ha estado constantemente a la zaga en las encuestas previas a la crucial elección presidencial brasileña. Y durante meses ha cuestionado constantemente los sistemas de votación de su país, advirtiendo que si pierde las elecciones de octubre, probablemente se debería al robo de votos.Esas afirmaciones fueron consideradas en gran medida como habladurías. Pero ahora Bolsonaro ha conseguido un nuevo aliado en su lucha contra el proceso electoral: los militares del país.Los líderes de las fuerzas armadas de Brasil han comenzado repentinamente a plantear dudas similares sobre la integridad de las elecciones, a pesar de las escasas pruebas de fraude en el pasado, lo que ha aumentado la tensión, ya elevada, sobre la estabilidad de la mayor democracia de América Latina y ha sacudido a un país que sufrió una dictadura militar de 1964 a 1985.Los líderes militares han identificado para los funcionarios electorales lo que, según ellos, son algunas vulnerabilidades en los sistemas de votación. Se les dio un lugar en un comité de transparencia que los funcionarios electorales crearon para disminuir los temores que Bolsonaro había despertado sobre la votación. Y Bolsonaro, un capitán retirado del ejército que llenó su gabinete de generales, ha sugerido que el día de las elecciones, los militares deberían realizar su propio recuento paralelo de los votos.Bolsonaro, quien ha hablado bien de la dictadura militar, también ha querido dejar claro que los militares responden ante él.Los funcionarios electorales “invitaron a las fuerzas armadas a participar en el proceso electoral”, dijo Bolsonaro hace poco, en alusión al comité de transparencia. “¿Olvidaron que el jefe supremo de las fuerzas armadas se llama Jair Messias Bolsonaro?”.Almir Garnier Santos, el comandante de la Marina de Brasil, dijo a los periodistas el mes pasado que respaldaba la opinión de Bolsonaro. “El presidente de la república es mi jefe, es mi comandante, tiene derecho a decir lo que quiera”, dijo.A poco más de cuatro meses de una de las votaciones más importantes de América Latina en años, se está formando un conflicto muy riesgoso. Por un lado, el presidente, algunos líderes militares y muchos votantes de la derecha sostienen que las elecciones se prestan al fraude. Por otro, políticos, jueces, diplomáticos extranjeros y periodistas hacen sonar la alarma de que Bolsonaro está preparando el terreno para un intento de golpe de Estado.Bolsonaro ha aumentado la tensión, al decir que su preocupación por la integridad de las elecciones puede llevarlo a cuestionar el resultado. “Ha surgido una nueva clase de pillos que quieren robar nuestra libertad”, dijo en un discurso este mes. “Iremos a la guerra si es necesario”.Activistas con una manta que dice en portugués “Dictadura nunca más” en un mitin en Brasilia en marzo durante una protesta motivada por lo que los organizadores dijeron es un aumento de las violaciones a los derechos humanos en la presidencia de Jair Bolsonaro.Eraldo Peres/Associated PressEdson Fachin, un juez del Supremo Tribunal Federal y el principal funcionario electoral del país, dijo en una entrevista que las afirmaciones de que la elección sería insegura son infundadas y peligrosas. “Estos problemas son creados artificialmente por quienes quieren destruir la democracia brasileña”, dijo. “Lo que está en juego en Brasil no es solo una máquina de votación electrónica. Lo que está en juego es conservar la democracia”.Bolsonaro y los militares dicen que solamente intentan salvaguardar las elecciones. “Por el amor de Dios, nadie está realizando actos antidemocráticos”, dijo Bolsonaro recientemente. “Una elección limpia, transparente y segura es una cuestión de seguridad nacional. Nadie quiere tener dudas cuando las elecciones hayan terminado”.El Ministerio de Defensa de Brasil dijo en un comunicado que “las fuerzas armadas brasileñas actúan en estricta obediencia a la ley y la Constitución y se dirigen a defender la patria, garantizar los poderes constitucionales y, a través de cualquiera de ellos, de la ley y el orden”.Las tácticas de Bolsonaro parecen adaptadas del manual del expresidente Donald Trump, y tanto Trump como sus aliados han trabajado para apoyar las interpelaciones de fraude de Bolsonaro. Los dos hombres son reflejo de un retroceso democrático más amplio que se está produciendo en todo el mundo.Los disturbios del año pasado en el Capitolio de Estados Unidos han demostrado que los traspasos pacíficos de poder ya no están garantizados ni siquiera en las democracias maduras. En Brasil, donde las instituciones democráticas son mucho más jóvenes, las incursiones de los militares en las elecciones están agudizando los temores.Garnier Santos, el comandante de la Marina, declaró al periódico brasileño O Povo que “como comandante de la Marina, quiero que los brasileños estén seguros de que su voto contará”, y añadió: “Cuanta más transparencia, cuanta más auditoría, mejor para Brasil”.Un informe de la policía federal brasileña detalló cómo dos generales del gabinete de Bolsonaro, incluido su asesor de seguridad nacional, habían intentado durante años ayudar a Bolsonaro a descubrir pruebas de fraude electoral.Y el viernes, el ministro de Defensa de Brasil, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, envió una misiva de 21 puntos a los funcionarios electorales, criticándolos por no tomar en serio las inquietudes de los militares sobre la seguridad electoral. “Las fuerzas armadas no se sienten debidamente reconocidas”, dijo.Hasta ahora, los comentarios de Bolsonaro han ido más allá que los de los militares. En abril, repitió la falsedad de que los funcionarios cuentan los votos en una “sala secreta”. Luego sugirió que los datos de las votaciones deberían suministrarse a una sala “donde las fuerzas armadas también tengan una computadora para contar los votos”. Los militares no han comentado públicamente esta idea.Dado que el apoyo de los militares podría ser crítico para un golpe de Estado, una pregunta popular en los círculos políticos es: si Bolsonaro cuestiona el resultado de las elecciones, ¿cómo reaccionarían los 340.000 miembros de las fuerzas armadas?Bolsonaro y Trump son aliados cercanos; ambos han cuestionado las elecciones de sus respectivos países. Cenaron en marzo de 2020 en Mar-a-Lago en Palm Beach, Florida.T.J. Kirkpatrick para The New York Times“En Estados Unidos, los militares y la policía respetaron la ley, defendieron la Constitución”, dijo Mauricio Santoro, profesor de relaciones internacionales en la Universidad Estatal de Río de Janeiro, refiriéndose a las afirmaciones de Trump de que le habían robado la elección. “No estoy seguro de que vaya a ocurrir lo mismo aquí”.Funcionarios militares y políticos refutan cualquier noción de que los militares respaldarían un golpe de Estado. “Caería. No tendría ningún apoyo”, dijo el general Maynard Santa Rosa, quien perteneció al ejército brasileño durante 49 años y sirvió en el gabinete de Bolsonaro. “Y creo que él lo sabe”.Sérgio Etchegoyen, un general retirado del ejército cercano a los actuales líderes militares, también calificó de alarmistas las preocupaciones sobre un golpe de Estado. “Podemos pensar que es malo que el presidente cuestione las boletas”, dijo. “Pero es mucho peor si cada cinco minutos pensamos que la democracia está en riesgo”.Algunos funcionarios estadounidenses están más preocupados por la reacción del aproximadamente medio millón de policías en todo Brasil porque generalmente son menos profesionales y apoyan más a Bolsonaro que los militares, según un funcionario estadounidense que habló con la condición de permanecer en el anonimato para discutir conversaciones privadas.Cualquier afirmación sobre una elección robada podría enfrentarse a un público escéptico, a menos de que la contienda se haga más competida. Una encuesta realizada a finales de mayo entre 2556 brasileños indicó que el 48 por ciento apoyaba al expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, frente al 27 por ciento de Bolsonaro. (Si ningún candidato obtiene la mitad de los votos, los dos primeros clasificados irán a una segunda vuelta el 30 de octubre).Esa misma encuesta mostró que el 24 por ciento de los encuestados no confía en las máquinas de votación de Brasil, frente al 17 por ciento en marzo. El 55 por ciento de los encuestados dijo que creía que la elección era vulnerable al fraude, incluyendo el 81 por ciento de los partidarios de Bolsonaro.En los 37 años de democracia moderna en Brasil, ningún presidente ha estado tan cerca de los militares como Bolsonaro, quien fue paracaidista del ejército.Como diputado, colgó en su despacho retratos de los líderes de la dictadura militar brasileña. Como presidente, triplicó el número de militares en puestos civiles en el gobierno federal hasta casi 1100. Su vicepresidente también es un general retirado.El año pasado, mientras intensificaba sus críticas al sistema electoral del país, destituyó al ministro de Defensa y a los tres principales comandantes militares, colocando a partidarios en su lugar.El nuevo ministro de Defensa no tardó en opinar sobre el proceso electoral, apoyando la propuesta de Bolsonaro de utilizar boletas impresas, además de máquinas de votación, lo que facilitaría los recuentos. Brasil es uno de los pocos países que depende totalmente en las máquinas de votación electrónicas: 577.125.Aunque Bolsonaro y sus aliados admiten que carecen de pruebas de fraude en el pasado, señalan una serie de problemas: algunas irregularidades percibidas en los resultados de la votación, un hackeo en 2018 de las computadoras del tribunal electoral, que no tiene conexión con las máquinas de votación, y la desestimación general de las preocupaciones por parte de los funcionarios electorales.Una urna electrónica en la sede del tribunal electoral de Brasil el mes pasado, mientras los analistas probaban el sistema. Eraldo Peres/Associated PressDiego Aranha, un experto en computación brasileño que ha intentado hackear las máquinas con fines de investigación, dijo que la falta de copias de seguridad en papel dificulta la verificación de los resultados, pero que el sistema en general era seguro.El Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil rechazó finalmente el uso de boletas impresas, alegando problemas de privacidad.El año pasado, cuando los funcionarios electorales crearon la “comisión de transparencia electoral”, invitaron a formar parte de ella a un almirante con un título en computación. En su lugar, el ministro de Defensa de Brasil envió a un general que dirige el comando de defensa cibernética del ejército.El representante del ejército envió entonces cuatro cartas a los funcionarios electorales con preguntas detalladas sobre el proceso de votación, así como algunos cambios recomendados.Preguntó sobre los sellos de seguridad de las máquinas, el código informático que las sustenta y la tecnología biométrica utilizada para verificar a los votantes. Los funcionarios electorales dijeron el sábado que aceptarían algunas de las pequeñas recomendaciones técnicas y estudiarían otras para las próximas elecciones, pero que otras sugerencias no entendían el sistema.En medio de las idas y venidas, el expresidente del Tribunal Superior Electoral, Luís Roberto Barroso, dijo a los periodistas que los líderes militares estaban “siendo guiados para atacar el proceso electoral brasileño”, una afirmación que Nogueira, el ministro de Defensa, calificó de “irresponsable”.El tribunal electoral también invitó a funcionarios europeos a observar la elección, pero rescindió la invitación después de que el gobierno de Bolsonaro se opusiera. En su lugar, el partido político de Bolsonaro está tratando de que una empresa externa audite los sistemas de votación antes de las elecciones.Bolsonaro y Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, el ministro de Defensa, en una ceremonia el pasado agosto en Brasilia.Andressa Anholete/Getty ImagesFachin, quien ahora preside el tribunal electoral, dijo que Bolsonaro era bienvenido a realizar su propia revisión, pero añadió que los funcionarios ya han probado las máquinas. “Esto es más o menos como forzar la cerradura de una puerta abierta”, dijo.El gobierno de Joe Biden ha advertido a Bolsonaro que debe respetar el proceso democrático. El jueves, en la Cumbre de las Américas en Los Ángeles, el presidente Biden se reunió con Bolsonaro por primera vez. Sentado junto a Biden, Bolsonaro dijo que eventualmente dejaría el cargo de “una manera democrática”, añadiendo que las elecciones de octubre deben ser “limpias, confiables y auditables”.Scott Hamilton, el principal diplomático de Estados Unidos en Río de Janeiro hasta el año pasado, escribió en el periódico brasileño O Globo que la “intención de Bolsonaro es clara y peligrosa: socavar la fe del público y preparar el terreno para negarse a aceptar los resultados”.Bolsonaro insiste en que no está tratando de erosionar los cimientos democráticos de su país, sino que simplemente está asegurando una votación precisa.“¿Cómo quiero un golpe si ya soy presidente?”, dijo este mes. “En las repúblicas bananeras, vemos a los líderes conspirando para mantenerse en el poder, cooptando partes del gobierno para defraudar las elecciones. Aquí es exactamente lo contrario”.André Spigariol More