More stories

  • in

    Impeachment video shows Mike Pence and Mitt Romney fleeing Capitol attack – video

    New video shown during the second impeachment trial for Donald Trump has revealed Capitol police officer Eugene Goodman leading Senator Mitt Romney away from the rioters as well as the evacuation of former vice-president Mike Pence. Representative Stacey Plaskett presented the previously unreleased security footage from the 6 January Capitol breach documenting Romney’s close call as well as Pence and his family’s escape as rioters chanted ‘hang Mike Pence’
    Trump trial shown disturbing footage of lawmakers ‘hunted’ by Capitol mob
    New footage of Capitol riot shows Eugene Goodman rushing to save Mitt Romney – Trump impeachment live More

  • in

    What Do ‘Right’ and ‘Wrong’ Mean to the G.O.P.?

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpinionSupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat Do ‘Right’ and ‘Wrong’ Mean to the G.O.P.?These politicians are still bowing to their alpha — Trump.Opinion ColumnistFeb. 10, 2021Credit…Devin Oktar Yalkin for The New York TimesIt cannot be said often enough: The first rule of politics is survival.This is a sad but pervading truth. We like to think that politicians are driven above all else by a sense of public service, a fundamental belief in the efficacy of government and in the defense of democracy.Surely that is true of some. But we are ever reminded that too many elected officials’ primary impulse is the pursuit, acquisition and maintenance of power. Power is the politicians’ profession. So just like a pack of animals, they willingly, gleefully subjugate themselves to the one among them with the most power.We see that playing out before our eyes in the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump for inciting an insurrection, a high crime of which he is clearly guilty.All but six Republican senators voted that the trial itself was unconstitutional, even though constitutional scholars overwhelmingly disagree.These politicians are still bowing to their alpha — Trump. In the early days of Trump’s presidency, Republicans in Congress either cozied up to him or sat in silence as his demagogy ensnared and entranced the Republican base.For years — decades even — the conservative elite had alternately tolerated, recruited or activated racists, white nationalists and white supremacists. The elite have their own versions of these biases, but they thought themselves more erudite and tactical, not brash and brazen. They would use surgical tools of voter suppression, states’ rights campaigns and defense of marriage and the unborn to advance their goals in a way they saw as honorable.But Trump saw the voters that the elites kept under the stairs, the ones they want to excite only around election time. He saw the resentment and rage in them. He saw that their voices had been muted and their tongues chastened.He drew them out. He let them vent. He allowed them to see they were indeed the majority of the party. He offered to be their leader, their white knight of white power, and they accepted. They grew loud and strong and he fed them red meat. They rampaged and he basked in the glow of the blaze.Leader and followers had found each other. Now the traditional Republicans were on the run or on the ropes. Rather than become victims of the mob, they yielded to it. They tried to tap into it. They tried to grab the reins of it.But this mob had only one leader: Trump. It was a cult of personality. It was a religion with one god. And that god is a jealous god. And vindictive. And mean.Anyone who would dare forsake Trump runs the risk of being smote by him, and targeted by his minions. To diverge from Trump is essentially to abdicate power, and for a career politician that is a fate worse than death.So, we watch the impeachment trial, with the impressive and clear presentation by the House impeachment managers of evidence that we already knew and some that we didn’t. We are reminded of just how heinous an episode that attempted insurrection was, that people were killed and injured.We are reminded that there were those in that band of terrorists who wanted to take even more murderous actions, but simply didn’t happen upon the opportunity and targets.And, in the end, you have to ask yourself only one question to convict Trump: Would this attempted insurrection have happened without him? The answer is no.For months Trump lied about the election and pumped into his followers the fallacy that something had been stolen from them and that they needed to fight with all they had to reclaim it. Then there are all the things he said on the eve of the assault on the Capitol, during it and even after it.Trump refused to accept that his white power presidency was coming to an end, in part because of Black and brown voters in some key states, so he asked his white power patriots to come to his defense, to help overturn a fair election.They responded, loyally, to the party leader who had truly seen them, who didn’t condemn their bigotries but amplified them. They saw themselves in Trump, and they still do.The Republicans in Congress are still afraid of their own base, their own constituencies in their own districts and states, because the Trump rot reaches down to the root. Their voters belong to Trump, therefore their futures are in Trump’s hands.Trump is essentially running a defection minority government from political exile.Republicans dare not cross him, even if they know that he is wrong, even if they know that what he did to incite the insurgency is wrong, even if they know that voting to convict him is right.Right and wrong have taken on new meanings in this Republican Party: to be right is to side with Trump, unwaveringly, while the only wrong is to do the opposite.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and Instagram.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Why Bill Cassidy Broke With Senate Republicans and Backed Trump’s Trial

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Trump ImpeachmentliveTrial HighlightsDay 2: Key TakeawaysVideo of Jan. 6 RiotWhat to Expect TodayWhat Is Incitement?Trump’s LawyersAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhy Bill Cassidy Broke With Senate Republicans and Backed Trump’s TrialThe Louisiana senator, usually a reliable conservative vote, angered Republicans by voting to continue with the impeachment trial. But he has increasingly shown an inclination toward pragmatism.Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, voted this week to move forward with the Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald J. Trump.Credit…Alyssa Schukar for The New York TimesFeb. 10, 2021Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana did not just vote this week with Democrats to proceed with the impeachment trial of former President Donald J. Trump — he also effectively shamed his fellow Republican senators by voicing, and acting on, what many of them were surely thinking.Mr. Cassidy blistered Mr. Trump’s lawyers as “disorganized” and seemingly “embarrassed by their arguments,” explaining that their poor performance and the compelling case by the Democratic House impeachment managers had persuaded him to break from his party’s attempt to dismiss the proceedings on constitutional grounds.“If I’m an impartial juror, and one side is doing a great job, and the other side is doing a terrible job, on the issue at hand, as an impartial juror, I’m going to vote for the side that did the good job,” he told reporters on Tuesday. He did, though, emphasize on Wednesday that his view on constitutionality did not “predict my vote on anything else,” namely whether to convict Mr. Trump, saying only that he had an “open mind.”By becoming the only Senate Republican to switch his position from the one he held last month on a similar question about the constitutionality of holding an impeachment trial for a person no longer in public office, however, Mr. Cassidy delighted Louisiana Democrats, angered Republicans in his home state and presented himself as a one-man testimony of why Mr. Trump’s eventual acquittal is all but inevitable.“There is literally nothing that the Trump lawyers could do to change any of these other Republicans’ minds,” said Senator Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat. “They couldn’t have tanked it on purpose any worse than they did, and they still only lost one.”That Mr. Cassidy was that sole senator to be lost, joining the five Republicans who also sided with Democrats in January on the constitutionality of the trial, may have seemed surprising at first glance. After all, he has been a fairly reliable conservative vote since being elected to the Senate in 2014, and Louisiana just handed Mr. Trump a 19-percentage-point victory over President Biden.Yet Mr. Cassidy, a 63-year-old physician, also has an iconoclastic streak and can be quirky. A devoted fan of his alma mater’s football program, Mr. Cassidy can rattle off the precise number of Louisiana State University football players who have left college early to be drafted into the N.F.L.One fellow Louisianian, former Representative Cedric Richmond, who in 2014 said that the “dude is weird,” put it more delicately on Wednesday. “He has always been independent,” said Mr. Richmond, a Democrat who served in Congress with Mr. Cassidy and is now a senior adviser to Mr. Biden, calling the senator’s vote a “profile in courage.”Mr. Cassidy is part of an increasingly vocal group of red-state Senate Republicans who, having spent more time in their careers confirming judges than legislating, are eager to work with Mr. Biden and their Democratic colleagues.Mr. Cassidy signaled his very public turn toward pragmatism less than a month after cruising to re-election last year by 40 points.First, he became the most prominent Louisiana Republican, and one of only a few G.O.P. senators in the South, to acknowledge in November that Mr. Biden had won the election.Then he left no doubt about his intentions with a decidedly Louisiana touch. He showed up at a Capitol Hill news conference in December bearing Mardi Gras beads to make the case for state and local aid in a coronavirus relief package, warning that cities like New Orleans were being financially battered without tourist dollars.In joining a bipartisan Senate “gang” after his landslide re-election to push for what eventually became the $900 billion measure that Mr. Trump signed in December, a seemingly liberated Mr. Cassidy indicated that he would use his next, and perhaps final, six-year term as a constructive force in Congress for a state confronting profound economic, public health and environmental challenges exacerbated by the pandemic.“I’m 63 years old, I am a senator because I love my country, I love my state, and I am going to work my hardest for my state and my country,” he said after that December news conference, adding with a shrug: “I want my state and my country to do well and what comes, comes.”If that approach makes for a sharp contrast with Senator John Kennedy — his fellow Louisiana Republican, who delights in dishing one-liners on cable television — it puts him in league with an emerging group of G.O.P. lawmakers more interested in accruing legislative accomplishments than Fox News appearances.This coalition includes some of the Republican senators who visited the White House to discuss the next virus package with Mr. Biden this month. Their ranks include not just moderate stalwarts like Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska but also more conservative lawmakers like Todd Young of Indiana, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Jerry Moran of Kansas.“We’re looking for solutions,” said Mr. Young, who until recently was the chairman of the Senate Republican campaign arm and is eager to turn back to policy.Mr. Schatz, who is friendly with some of these senators, put a finer point on their motivation: “If I’m going to suffer through the Trump era, then I may as well enact some laws.”In Louisiana, though, the thoroughly Trumpified Republican Party expects only continued fealty to the former president.Mr. Cassidy confronted immediate criticism for his vote and comments on Tuesday.“I received many calls this afternoon from Republicans in Louisiana who think that @SenBillCassidy did a ‘terrible job’ today,” Blake Miguez, the State House Republican leader, wrote on Twitter, repurposing Mr. Cassidy’s critique of Mr. Trump’s lawyers. “I understand their frustrations and join them in their disappointment.”Even a fellow member of the Louisiana congressional delegation, Representative Mike Johnson, weighed in. “A lot of people from back home are calling me about it right now,” noted Mr. Johnson, a Republican, who said he was “surprised” by Mr. Cassidy’s move.Perhaps he should not have been.As Stephanie Grace, the longtime political columnist for The Times-Picayune in New Orleans, wrote in a December piece anticipating Mr. Cassidy’s shift, he “has long been part of bipartisan efforts to solve problems, even if his solutions probably go too far for some Republicans and stop way short of what many Democrats want.”Mr. Cassidy, a former Democrat like Mr. Kennedy and many Southern Republicans their age, has long been less than dogmatic on health care, a viewpoint he formed working in his state’s charity hospitals. This has always been more than a little ironic to Louisiana political insiders, given that in 2014 he unseated Senator Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, thanks to conservative attacks on former President Barack Obama and the Affordable Care Act. (On Wednesday, Ms. Landrieu said of Mr. Cassidy, “Many people in Louisiana are proud of him, including me.”)Yet by 2017, during the heated debate over whether to repeal the health care law, Mr. Cassidy was warning that to kick people off their insurance or make coverage unaffordable would only shift costs back to taxpayers by burdening emergency rooms.“If you want to be fiscally responsible, then coverage is better than no coverage,” he said at the time, conceding that Congress had established “the right for every American to have health care.”Such remarks, like much else policy-related in the Trump era, were overshadowed by the incessant White House drama. But Mr. Cassidy’s turn toward the political middle isn’t lost on Louisiana Democrats now.“He seems to be developing this moderate, deal-making persona,” said Mandie Landry, a state representative from Louisiana. “Kennedy has become so out there and embarrassing that it gives Cassidy some space, especially if he’s not running again.”That was clear enough from the senator’s comportment on Wednesday morning, when he seemed to evoke the most memorable lyrics of the Louisiana-inspired song “Me and Bobby McGee”: “Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.”Happily striding to the microphone set up for television cameras in the Capitol basement to take questions, Mr. Cassidy acknowledged that the reaction in Louisiana to his vote had been “mixed.”Then he continued.“It is Constitution and country over party,” he said of his approach. “For some, they get it. And for others, they’re not quite so sure. But that’s to be expected.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Georgia Prosecutors Open Criminal Investigation of Trump Call

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Campaign to Subvert the 2020 ElectionKey TakeawaysTrump’s RoleGeorgia InvestigationExtremist Wing of G.O.P.AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyGeorgia Prosecutors Open Criminal Investigation of Trump CallFulton County prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into former President Donald J. Trump’s January phone call to the Georgia secretary of state asking him to “find” votes.Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who was overseeing the electoral process in the state.Credit…Erik S Lesser/EPA, via ShutterstockRichard Fausset and Feb. 10, 2021, 9:57 a.m. ETATLANTA — Prosecutors in Fulton County have initiated a criminal investigation into former President Donald J. Trump’s attempts to overturn Georgia’s election results, including a phone call he made to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in which Mr. Trump pressured him to “find” enough votes to help him reverse his loss.On Wednesday, Fani Willis, the recently elected Democratic prosecutor in Fulton County, sent a letter to numerous officials in state government, including Mr. Raffensperger, requesting that they preserve documents related to Mr. Trump’s call, according to a state official with knowledge of the letter. The letter explicitly stated that the request was part of a criminal investigation, said the official, who insisted on anonymity to discuss internal matters. The inquiry makes Georgia the second state after New York where Mr. Trump faces a criminal investigation. And it comes in a jurisdiction where potential jurors are unlikely to be hospitable to the former president; Fulton County encompasses most of Atlanta and overwhelmingly supported President Biden in the November election.The Fulton County investigation comes on the heels of a decision Monday by Mr. Raffensperger’s office to open an administrative inquiry. Ms. Willis has been weighing for several weeks whether to open an inquiry, after Mr. Trump’s phone call to Mr. Raffensperger on Jan. 2 alarmed election experts who call it an extraordinary intervention into a state’s electoral process.That call was one of several attempts Mr. Trump made to persuade top Republican officials in the state to uncover instances of voting fraud that might change the outcome. He also called Gov. Brian Kemp in early December and pressured him to call a special legislative session to overturn his election loss. Later that month, Mr. Trump called a state investigator and pressed the official to “find the fraud,” according to those with knowledge of the call.Former prosecutors said Mr. Trump’s calls might run afoul of at least three state laws. One is criminal solicitation to commit election fraud, which can be either a felony or a misdemeanor; as a felony, it is punishable by at least a year in prison. There is also a related conspiracy charge, which can be prosecuted either as a misdemeanor or a felony. A third law, a misdemeanor offense, bars “intentional interference” with another person’s “performance of election duties.”Mr. Biden’s victory in Georgia was reaffirmed after election officials recertified the state’s presidential election results in three separate counts of the ballots: the initial election tally; a hand recount ordered by the state; and another recount, which was requested by Mr. Trump’s campaign and completed by machines. The results of the machine recount show Mr. Biden won with a lead of about 12,000 votes.Mr. Biden was the first Democrat to win the presidential election in Georgia since 1992. Mr. Trump accused Gov. Brian Kemp and Mr. Raffensperger, both Republicans, of not doing enough to help him overturn the result in the weeks after the election. Mr. Kemp and Mr. Raffensberger had each resisted numerous attacks from Mr. Trump who called the governor “hapless” and he called on the secretary of state to resign.The Georgia investigation comes as Mr. Trump is also facing an ongoing criminal fraud inquiry into his finances by the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., and a civil fraud inquiry by the New York attorney general, Letitia James. The mere beginning of an investigation into the polarizing former president could be a career-defining moment for Ms. Willis, who took office in January. She is the first African-American woman to hold the job in Georgia’s most populous county, and has already faced some daunting challenges: Atlanta is coming off a year with a high number of homicides, and Ms. Willis has promised an ambitious set of changes to the office, as well as a review of her predecessor’s controversial handling of the police shooting of a Black man, Rayshard Brooks, in June.If Mr. Trump were to be convicted of a state crime in New York or Georgia, a federal pardon would not be applicable. In Georgia, Mr. Trump cannot look to Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, for a state pardon, and not just because the two have a fractured relationship. In Georgia, pardons are granted only by the state board of pardons and paroles.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    House Republicans Announce 47 Democrats They Hope to Unseat

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyHouse Republicans Announce 47 Democrats They Hope to UnseatThe National Republican Congressional Committee released a list of the House Democrats whose seats it is targeting, including moderates like Abigail Spanberger and Conor Lamb.Representative Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, a moderate Democrat, has sparred with the party’s more liberal wing.Credit…Stefani Reynolds for The New York TimesFeb. 10, 2021Updated 8:51 a.m. ETWASHINGTON — The House Republicans’ campaign arm on Wednesday revealed the list of 47 House Democrats it will target in the 2022 midterm elections, whose results are likely to be determined largely by the popularity of President Biden.The National Republican Congressional Committee’s list includes 25 Democrats who were first elected in the Democrats’ 2018 wave election and six incumbents who represent districts that voted for former President Donald J. Trump in November. It includes a wide array of moderate Democrats, including Representatives Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania, who have publicly sparred with the party’s more liberal wing in recent months.The target list comes three months after House Republicans outperformed pre-election polling and flipped 15 Democratic-held seats in last year’s elections. The party out of power typically does well in midterm elections: Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections.“House Republicans start the cycle just five seats short of a majority and are prepared to build on our 2020 successes to deliver a lasting Republican majority in the House,” said Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the N.R.C.C. chairman. “We will stay laser-focused on recruiting talented and diverse candidates, aggressively highlighting Democrats’ socialist agenda and raising enough resources to win.”The Republicans’ list is speculative, given that it will be months before states are able to begin drawing new congressional district lines. The Census Bureau is already late in delivering reapportionment and redistricting data to states, delaying until at least late summer a process that typically begins in February or March.The tardiness of the census data has left both parties’ congressional campaign committees in limbo as they seek to recruit candidates for presumptive districts. Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida are expected to add multiple new House districts, while Northern states including Illinois, Ohio and New York are likely to lose at least one seat each.At least six House Democrats who represent districts Mr. Trump carried in November are on the N.R.C.C. list: Representatives Cindy Axne of Iowa, Cheri Bustos of Illinois, Jared Golden of Maine, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Andy Kim of New Jersey and Ron Kind of Wisconsin.Ms. Bustos, who led the House Democrats’ campaign arm in 2020, had margins of victory that shrunk from 24 percentage points in 2018 to four points in 2020. But with Illinois certain to lose at least one seat, her gerrymandered district, which snakes around to include Democratic-leaning sections of Peoria and Rockford along with the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, will change before she faces voters again.The N.R.C.C. also believes a handful of Democrats who underperformed Mr. Biden may be vulnerable against better-funded challengers. Those Democrats include Representatives Katie Porter and Mike Levin of California, who both had significantly less support than Mr. Biden in November.And the committee included on its list 10 Democrats it declared to be potential targets of redistricting — a crop that includes the likes of Representative Carolyn Maloney of New York, whose district Mr. Biden carried by 70 points.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Ray McGuire Has It All. He Still Wants to Be NYC Mayor

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }N.Y.C. Mayoral RaceWho’s Running?11 Candidates’ N.Y.C. MomentsA Look at the Race5 Takeaways From the DebateAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyThe Upper Crust Has Its Candidate. Don’t Call Him ‘the Black Bloomberg.’Raymond McGuire has lived a grand New York life, conquering Wall Street and kibitzing with Steve Martin. But in his campaign for mayor, he is eager to reach beyond his wealthy supporters.Raymond J. McGuire at his home in Manhattan.Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesThe New York City mayoral race is one of the most consequential political contests in a generation, with immense challenges awaiting the winner. This is the first in a series of profiles of the major candidates.Feb. 10, 2021At last, Raymond J. McGuire was among friends.“I see my crew from Citi!” he called out to his Zoom gathering, midway through a virtual fund-raiser for his mayoral campaign, its grid of video feeds looking like a chapter meeting of the 1 percent: grand libraries and fire-warmed living rooms, Steve Martin in a smart white button-down, a Tisch, a Seinfeld, a Knick.“I see my crew from Citi!”Mr. McGuire sounded almost giddy to be in such company. It had been an uneven couple of weeks for his candidacy, driven by an audacious if unproven idea: that the times demand a trailblazing Black businessman with nearly 40 years of experience on Wall Street and none in government, pledging to deploy his prolific contact list in service of his city.While Mr. McGuire, 64, had raised more than $5 million in the three months since announcing his run, propelling him to the race’s upper tier, he also often looked the part of a first-time campaigner.Opponents chafed at his repurposing the tagline of Shirley Chisholm (“unbought and unbossed!”), observing that the former congresswoman declared such independence because she lacked ruling-class connections, not because she had too much money to care. Reporters started asking about Mr. McGuire’s past business ties to the Koch brothers and to the government of Saudi Arabia while at Citigroup. And when pressed in public forums, Mr. McGuire occasionally wobbled, defaulting to the slight pique and projected self-assurance (“Let’s go! I’m good!”) of someone not used to being challenged.Mr. McGuire is trying to create a coalition that includes affluent Manhattanites and lower-income residents of the other boroughs. Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesBut the fund-raiser, at least, was a safe space — for Mr. McGuire, yes, but also for a most devoted constituency: masters of the universe who feel like pariahs in the New York City of Mayor Bill de Blasio.Mr. de Blasio is the first mayor in at least a generation who has not been openly solicitous of the city’s business elite, which was uniquely spoiled by 12 years with one of its own, Michael R. Bloomberg, at the controls. In Mr. McGuire’s bid, New York’s upper crust sees a prospective return to the civic influence and unquestioned relevance they long assumed. It just so happens that they are projecting these visions onto a man who rejects comparisons to Mr. Bloomberg as reductive and racially ignorant, no matter how many admirers call him “the Black Bloomberg” out of earshot.Both Mr. McGuire and his most powerful supporters recognize that the path to City Hall runs through neighborhoods far from his duplex in the famed San Remo building on Central Park West. And so his team is working to stitch together an unusual Democratic coalition, crafting appeals to affluent Manhattanites — aggrieved by Mr. de Blasio’s snubs — and to lower-income, predominantly nonwhite voters in the other boroughs.The cold math of off-year elections with an unwieldy, divided field makes this theory of the case more than plausible: The winner of the primary might need to persuade perhaps a few hundred thousand people — if that — a total slightly greater than the population of the Upper West Side.For now, that is the slice of the city that probably knows Mr. McGuire best. Presiding over his fund-raiser from his home office, surrounded by leatherbound volumes of Shakespeare and Faulkner and an exhaustive collection of African and African-American art, Mr. McGuire gazed upon the pixelated faces of success.In one virtual window, the academic Henry Louis Gates Jr. sipped a drink while muted. In another, Jessica Seinfeld, the cookbook author and wife of Jerry Seinfeld, sporadically replaced her video feed with an away-screen headshot of her regal-looking cat, Javier.At one point, a businesswoman spoke up to assure Mr. McGuire that her husband, a financial news anchor, covertly supported the cause but was not attending “because of journalism.”Others waited for Mr. McGuire to address them directly:“Bewkes! My man!” (That would be Jeff Bewkes, the former chief executive of Time Warner.)“Charles Oakley in the house!” (The retired Knicks great nodded from his rectangle.)“Peter Malkin in the house!” (Mr. Malkin’s Zoom window was blank. His portfolio is not: The Malkin family controls the Empire State Building.)This is the Mr. McGuire, loose but in command, whom friends hope the city will come to see: the world-straddling overachiever from Dayton, Ohio, studying his way out of trying financial circumstances in his youth; the savvy dealmaker who rose to vice chairman at Citi, after stints at Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch; the man who would be mayor, if only the city would start listening to its highest earners again.“He’s very popular,” said William J. Bratton, the former police commissioner and veteran Manhattan schmoozer. “Even watching him at the Harvard Club, it took him a while to get to his seat, saying hello to people.”Mr. McGuire is “very popular,” said William J. Bratton, the former police commissioner. Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesWhile Mr. McGuire wears his high status openly, never known to lean on the faux modest “school in Cambridge” construction like some classmates, he has resisted analogies to Mr. Bloomberg, for reasons difficult to refute: Mr. Bloomberg did not grow up Black and scraping, across from paper mills so pungent that a blast from an open refrigerator door was sometimes the surest way to find fresh air. Mr. Bloomberg was never mistaken for the security guard or the bathroom attendant as he climbed. Mr. Bloomberg does not know what it means to be profiled still, no matter his assets, when he steps out from the comforts of his tony address.It happened again just a few months ago, Mr. McGuire recalled: He joined a driver, also Black, in a waiting car, set to ferry him to a film shoot for his introductory campaign video, which was narrated by Spike Lee. Within a few blocks, police sirens howled.“Driving while Black,” Mr. McGuire said in an interview. “There are occurrences like this that help shape how you think about the world, right?”Yet in a signal of the disparate support bases that the campaign plans to court, Mr. McGuire declined twice to answer whether Mr. Bloomberg had been a good mayor. (A campaign spokeswoman, Lupe Todd-Medina, said Mr. McGuire “does not recall” ever voting for Mr. Bloomberg but remembers supporting his Democratic opponent, William C. Thompson Jr., in 2009.)Mr. McGuire noted the damage that stop-and-frisk policing had inflicted upon nonwhite New Yorkers under Mr. Bloomberg but added that the former mayor had “managed the city the right way.” Mr. Bloomberg himself has stayed out of the race publicly but is said to have a fondness for Shaun Donovan, his former housing commissioner.In some ways, Mr. McGuire seems to be moving against some of the city’s prevailing Democratic winds. He is a supercapitalist without apology, betting on the sort of center-leftism that ascendant progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shun.Mr. McGuire has sought to position himself as the jobs-focused candidate, a budget-minded realist who laments inequality but questions some left-wing proposals for shrinking it, like a universal basic income program. He has called for wage subsidies at small businesses and a yearlong post-Covid “comeback festival” to boost tourism and nightlife, emphasizing the need for federal aid and speaking mostly euphemistically so far about any politically painful crisis remedies.Possible cuts? Mr. McGuire says he would “review inefficiencies and spending levels.”Tax hikes? He says leaders must “consider tax increases on those who can afford it,” as he can, and is quick to label himself a progressive despite any suggestion to the contrary.“My definition,” he said, “is I have a life of progressing through the system as a Black person in a 99.9 percent majority world.”Making his case on the mostly virtual campaign trail, Mr. McGuire describes his considerable means with a blunt accounting that can bear little resemblance to typical political messaging.Absent governing credentials, he has argued that his philanthropy should count for something.“Health care, long before Covid, I helped fix it — not too far away, at the nurses’ station, emergency room, NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, 168th Street,” he said in Harlem last month. “You go there, look above that nurses’ station and see whose name is there.”Questioned by activists at a recent forum about his commitment to social justice, Mr. McGuire said he had given money to the mother of a 1-year-old named Davell Gardner Jr. who was shot and killed in Brooklyn last summer.“Who put furniture in that apartment?” Mr. McGuire demanded. “Who furnished it?”The Rev. Al Sharpton, whose National Action Network has benefited from Mr. McGuire’s largess, said the candidate’s focus on his own wealth — and how he has used it — had a way of connecting with Black voters.“There’s something that resonates, particularly in our community,” Mr. Sharpton said, “when you are who you are.”Mr. McGuire’s commitment to candor is not absolute. He declined to discuss his wealth in detail or ballpark his starting salary in finance, characterizing it as “enough” and stressing that he grasps the realities of poverty because of his own humble origins.For his more senior posts, like helping to lead Citigroup’s corporate and investment banking, those familiar with the industry said annual pay for managers in equivalent positions could generally range from the high single-digit millions to the teens.Mr. McGuire’s most sustained relationship to the city’s civic life has come through the arts, with board or executive committee roles at the Whitney Museum of American Art and Lincoln Center, among other institutions.Mr. McGuire’s home on Central Park West features museum-quality art works.  Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesMr. McGuire’s book collection in his home in Manhattan. Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesHe is an avid art collector whose pieces include a Kuba cup.Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesHis apartment has doubled as a museum unto itself through the years, shared with his wife, Crystal, an author and filmmaker; their two children from her prior marriage: Cole, 20, now a guard for the N.B.A.’s Orlando Magic, and Ella, 18; and the couple’s 8-year-old son, Leo.The space’s front rooms greet guests with masterworks by Henry Ossawa Tanner, a renowned African-American painter; a sculpture by Elizabeth Catlett, an African-American and Mexican artist, of a reclining woman poised across a marble table; and an array of ancient African masks and other objects dating to 300 B.C.“Kuba cup, man,” Mr. McGuire said, giving a tour recently, approaching a treasured piece. “That’s the cup of kings.”Then there are the books of kings: the Bard (“you see the Shakespeare collection?”), the Romantics (“these are my guys here, Keats and Shelley!”), a memoir by Susan Rice (“good friend”).Mr. McGuire, schooled in English literature, refers to his academic history as “the 4H club”: the Hotchkiss School in Connecticut; then three degrees from Harvard, for undergraduate, business and law.David Paterson, the former New York governor who has known Mr. McGuire since the 1970s, marveled at the social circle his friend had built from Manhattan to Bridgehampton, N.Y., where the McGuires also own a home.“I’ve run for a few things,” Mr. Paterson said. “Spike Lee never made a video for my campaign.”Taking stock of his feats and contacts, Mr. McGuire can often sound enthralled by his own arc, wondering aloud if Hollywood could dream up anything quite so unlikely.“Even with your big brain, you can’t imagine anything like that — you can’t imagine writing anything like that,” he said of his path. “Who else has got anything like that? Who else?”During a recent afternoon at his home, Mr. McGuire handed over four stapled pages of accomplishments that included board leadership roles at Hotchkiss and the San Remo Tenants Corporation. (Residents over the years have included Dustin Hoffman, Diane Keaton and Mary Tyler Moore; Madonna was once rejected by the co-op board.)He pulled out a book of art that featured “Springtime in Washington” by Alma Thomas, before revealing the work on the wall of his dining room: “You may see some similarities between this and that.”Later, word came that the author Malcolm Gladwell had praised his candidacy during a talk, a surprise to the campaign. Mr. McGuire was asked if they knew each other.“Malcolm?” he said, eyes flickering in semi-offense. Of course he knew him. He knows everyone.Mr. McGuire talks with Marta Castro, a resident of the Melrose Houses, during a visit to the South Bronx.Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesAnd where he does not, Mr. McGuire is moving to catch up, convening with current and former officials in a crash course to find his municipal bearings.Several people who spoke to Mr. McGuire as he considered a run this past year described him as a conspicuous novice in city policy and politics. He said he had filled stacks of notebooks beside his desk in the interim, with a particular focus on New York’s turbulent 1970s.“Talked to Dick Ravitch,” Mr. McGuire volunteered, citing the former New York lieutenant governor with deep experience weathering fiscal calamity in government.In an interview, Mr. Ravitch called the candidate a “fast learner” with a skill set to meet the moment. He added some caveats.“He doesn’t know a thing about the city government,” Mr. Ravitch said, preceding “thing” with an expletive, before adding: “Do I think Ray would be the best of the candidates? Yes.”Gale Brewer, the Manhattan borough president and another government long-timer with whom Mr. McGuire has spoken, said diplomatically that there was only so much she could convey in a phone call.“It’s a hard city,” she said.Mr. McGuire has said that voters should prize executive experience over government résumés. On this score, some former colleagues at Citi report mixed returns. In interviews, they appraised Mr. McGuire as an approachable leader and willing mentor, particularly to younger Black talent, but also as an image-conscious manager who could struggle with indecision if a looming choice seemed destined to upset someone.Allies have framed such qualities as an instinct for defusing conflict, noting that the candidate even tried to play peacemaker between Mr. de Blasio and his wealthy antagonists: In 2015, Mr. McGuire hosted a reception for the mayor and his wife, Chirlane McCray, hoping they might grow closer to assorted business titans. (It didn’t take.)Some competitors have moved quickly to attach the political stench of banking to Mr. McGuire, whose rivals include Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president; Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller; and Andrew Yang, the former presidential candidate.Operatives for other campaigns have focused especially on Mr. McGuire’s business dealings with figures unpalatable to Democrats, like the Koch brothers.Friends say that this, too, speaks well of him.“We are investment bankers!” said William M. Lewis Jr., a co-chairman of investment banking at Lazard who has known Mr. McGuire since their time at Harvard. “We get paid a lot of money to help bridge differences. People should view it as a compliment that somebody, who is as different at their core as Ray, would look to Ray to try to help them get something done.”Mr. McGuire, who has no background in city government, visited the South Bronx with a City Council member, Rafael Salamanca.Credit…Todd Heisler/The New York TimesFor those eager to hasten the cleanest break from the de Blasio era, the attraction to Mr. McGuire often seems as much about attention as ideology — about being seen, and heard, and seen being heard.Mr. McGuire has been adamant that personal relationships would confer no special treatment at his City Hall. In fact, he has turned the implication on its head, accusing the current mayor of operating an “exclusive government, not an inclusive government.”And don’t the successful care about the city, too?“Let’s face it: Anybody that lives above 57th Street doesn’t feel that Mayor de Blasio has been attentive,” Mr. Bratton said. “The next person in, they want to be able to have access.”

    article h1 {
    font-size: 53px !important;
    line-height: 55px !important;
    font-weight: 300 !important;
    margin-top: -20px !important;
    font-style: normal;
    margin-bottom: 30px!important;
    }

    @media (max-width: 740px) {
    article h1 {
    font-size: 40px !important;
    line-height: 43px !important;
    font-weight: 300 !important;
    margin-top: -20px !important;
    }
    }

    hr {

    }

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    How Long Can Democracy Survive QAnon and Its Allies?

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpinionSupported byContinue reading the main storyHow Long Can Democracy Survive QAnon and Its Allies?Politicians and political scientists wonder if there are electoral reforms that might blunt the lunacy.Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C. on politics, demographics and inequality.Feb. 10, 2021Credit…Shannon Stapleton/ReutersHas a bloc of voters emerged that is not only alien to the American system of governance but toxic to it?“The central weakness of our political system now is the Republican Party,” Daniel Ziblatt, a political scientist at Harvard, said in an interview with Vox on Jan. 13, a week after the storming of the Capitol.“The American Republican Party looks like a European far-right party,” Ziblatt continued. “But the big difference between the U.S. and a lot of these European countries is that the U.S. only has two parties and one of them is like a European far-right party. If the G.O.P. only controlled 20 percent of the legislature, like you see in a lot of European countries, this would be far less problematic — but they basically control half of it.”A central question, then, is how distant from the rest of the American electorate the voters who align themselves with the radical wing of the Republican Party are.Rachel M. Blum and Christopher Sebastian Parker, political scientists at the Universities of Oklahoma and Washington, conducted a two-wave panel study of the MAGA movement in late December 2020 and the second half of January 2021 that was designed to answer this question and others.They found that “at least 60 percent of them are white, Christian and male. Further, around half are retired, over 65 years of age, and earn at least $50K per year. Finally, roughly 30 percent have at least a college degree.” More than 50 percent were born at a time of white hegemony, before the civil rights and women’s rights movements and the sexual revolution.Overwhelming majorities of the 1,431 MAGA supporters surveyed by Blum and Parker — from 80 to 99 percent — said they were concerned that “real Americans are losing freedoms”; “our lives are controlled by secret plots”; “unknown actors make the big decisions” and “forces are changing our country for the worse.”These MAGA supporters, who were recruited after signaling sympathy for the movement on Facebook, were rock-solid Republicans, Blum and Parker found, voting at or near 100 percent for the party’s House and Senate candidates in 2018 and 2020, and for Trump last year. They are far more engaged in politics — contributing money, going to meetings and volunteering — than the average American. “By any metric, this group appears committed to the political process,” Blum and Parker wrote.Not only are these voters partisan, the authors note, but “when we asked our respondents about whether or not they agreed with Trump’s fraud claims, 98 percent believed them valid.”Blum and Parker cited a Pew Research Center survey that found “75 percent of Americans believe that Trump bears at least some responsibility” for the Jan. 6 mob attack on Congress. Among all Republicans, “this figure declines significantly to 52 percent.”Blum and Parker also asked MAGA supporters whether Trump “bears responsibility for the Capitol riot.” They found that “barely 30 percent of these respondents believe Trump bears any responsibility whatsoever,” and, of those, more than half said Trump bears “a little” responsibility.In contrast, they wrote, “roughly 95 percent of MAGA supporters believe Antifa — the left wing protest group — bears some responsibility for the riots,” with more than 85 percent agreeing that Antifa bears “a great deal” or “a lot” of responsibility.Along similar lines, a Washington Post/ABC News survey taken Jan. 10-13 demonstrated how the views of a majority of Republicans stand far apart from the views of a majority of Americans.Asked if Trump has acted “responsibly” or “irresponsibly” since the Nov. 3 election, the 1002 adults polled chose “irresponsibly” by 66-30. Republicans, in contrast, chose “responsibly” by 66-29.Are Trump’s claims of election fraud “based on solid evidence?” All adults: 62 percent no, 31 percent yes. Republicans: 25 no, 65 yes.Should Trump be “charged with the crime of inciting a riot?” All adults: yes 54, no 43. Republicans: yes 12, no 84.What the panel studies and the Post survey suggest is that a majority of Republicans, primarily Trump loyalists and MAGA supporters, have evolved, as a core component of their conspiracy theories, a coded or a cryptic language — a set of symbols, or an almost occult “cipher,” revolving around something like a secret cabal. “We are Q,” read one sign at the event in Florida. “Where Go One We Go All,” read another, which is the QAnon movement’s revealing motto.Using their accusations almost as a lingua franca, a way to identify the like-minded, MAGA partisans and followers of QAnon signal one another by alleging that pedophile rings seek to wrest control of government or by alleging that school shootings were staged by leftists to win passage of gun control. They evoke a world in which unknown forces pull the levers of government, where nothing is as it seems to be. Professing your belief in claims like these attests to MAGA loyalties while expressing — in an arcane, politicized shorthand — your fervent opposition to liberalism and racial and cultural change.At the extreme, these conspiratorial views can lead to the violence and sedition of Jan. 6, which gives immediacy to the question of whether there are electoral reforms that might blunt the impact of this lunacy.Are you close to someone who has fallen for conspiracy theories? Share your story.

    Several political scholars and strategists argue that the fault lies in our political system, that the unique way America has combined its government structure with the mechanics of its elections serves to exacerbate conflict in a deeply polarized country. These scholars have produced a variety of proposals, many involving the creation of multi-member congressional districts and the encouragement of proportional representation to replace the current single district, winner-take-all system.Lee Drutman, author of “The Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multi-Party Democracy in America” and a senior fellow at New America, is a leading proponent of proportional representation.In an email, Drutman contended that “a big consequence” of the reforms he and others are calling foris that the MAGA wing would be cut loose from the rest of the G.O.P. coalition and left to operate on its own. It’s certainly conceivable that there could be even a few more Marjorie Taylor Greenes and Lauren Boeberts elected, but proportional representation (PR) would also mean more Adam Kinzingers (a House Republican who is a critic of Trump) and Romney-type Republicans elected as well.Drutman wrote that he has “come to realize how much of an existential threat the current Republican Party is to the continuation of America democracy.” A two-party democracy cannot survive “for very long if one of two dominant parties gives up on the foundational institution of democracy: free and fair elections, in which all votes count equally.”In addition, Drutman wrote,I’ve also come to appreciate how much democracy depends on a conservative party that believes in democracy, and thus how important it is to create electoral institutions in this moment that will allow the currently-marginalized small “l” liberal Republicans to separate from the MAGA wing of the party and still win some representation in the Congress.Proportional representation, he argued “is the only way to break up the current Republican coalition and free the pro-democracy forces within the Republican Party to compete on their own.”What kind of parties would likely emerge under proportional representation? Drutman pointed to a separate 2019 survey by Echelon Insights, a survey research firm, that asked voters “Suppose the Democratic and Republican Parties were replaced by a new set of political parties. Which of these parties would you be most likely to support?”The firm gave respondents five choices,A nationalist-right party promising to “stop illegal immigration, put America First, stand up to political correctness” attracted 19 percent.A traditional-right party, committed to “defend the American system of free enterprise, promote traditional family,” won 21 percent.A culturally liberal and globalist party with a platform committed to “advance social progress including women’s rights and LGBTQ rights, to work with other countries through free trade and diplomacy, to cut the deficit, and reform capitalism with sensible regulation” gathered 12 percent.A center-left party committed to putting “the middle class first, pass universal health insurance, strengthen labor unions, and raise taxes on the wealthy to support programs for those less well off” amassed 28 percent.A green party with a platform calling for passage of “a Green New Deal to build a carbon-free economy with jobs for all, break up big corporations, end systemic inequality, and promote social and economic justice” picked up 10 percent.Credit…Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesRepresentative Don Beyer, Democrat of Virginia, plans to reintroduce The Fair Representation Act, which would, if enacted, put into place many of the reforms Drutman supports. Beyer wrote on his website that the measurewould move U.S. House elections into multi-member districts drawn by independent redistricting commissions and elected through ranked choice voting. The multi-member districts would be effective in states apportioned six or more seats in the House, and would elect three to five Representatives each, depending on the size of the state. Taken together, these three measures would incentivize congressional candidates to appeal to a broader range of voters.Drutman has received both support and criticism from specialists in elections.Gretchen Helmke, a political scientist at the University of Rochester, wrote that Bright Line Watch — a group of political scientists that conducts surveys of experts and the general public — found that there wasquite strong support among political scientists for the proposal to repeal the 1967 law mandating single member districts for the House so that states have the option to use multi-member districts on the condition that they adopt a nonwinner-take-all election model. Of the more than 500 expert respondents, 73 percent either moderately or strongly supported the proposal.Helmke noted thatMy own view has been really shaped by Lee Drutman’s excellent work on this. I agree with the general critique of the median voter theorem, which has been misinterpreted to mean that two parties automatically converge toward the middle of the ideological spectrum. Obviously, we can see that this hasn’t been true for American politics for several decades.Lilliana Mason, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, praises Drutman — “the real expert on this right now” — and noted that “if it were possible, I do think such a shift would decrease polarization because it would eliminate the zero-sum nature of American politics.”In addition, Mason pointed out thatIt shouldn’t be overlooked that a PR system would also inevitably create some version of an explicitly white nationalist party. The big question is how many members of the current G.O.P. would join/vote for that party?Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth, wrote in reply to my inquiry: “I’m convinced by Lee Drutman’s argument in his Two Party Doom Loop book that we should move in this direction.”Pippa Norris, a political scientist at Harvard who examined different levels of dissatisfaction in democratic countries in “Is Western Democracy Backsliding?” finds evidence supportive of Drutman’s argument:Parliamentary democracies with PR elections and stable multiparty coalition governments, typical of the Nordic region, generate a broader consensus about welfare policies addressing inequality, exclusion, and social justice, and this avoids the adversarial winner-take-all divisive politics and social inequality more characteristic of majoritarian systems.Jennifer McCoy, a political scientist at Georgia State University, proposed a set of reforms similar, but not identical, to those of Drutman and Beyer:I would prefer ranked-choice voting with some multi-member districts for state and national legislatures, and proportional representation (by state popular vote, not by Congressional district which are already gerrymandered) for the Electoral College.” These, she wrote, “could all be accomplished with just legislative change, no constitutional amendments.Along similar lines, Jennifer Victor, a political scientist at George Mason University, emailed to say that she doubts proportional representation could be enacted in this country, butThere are a number of reforms being talked about among activists, reformers, political scientists, and other ‘thought leaders’ that are both feasible and would move the US toward a system that approximates a PR system.Victor shares the view that Congress could repeal the law mandating single winner-take-all congressional districts to allow larger, multi-member districts coupled withranked choice voting and expanding the size of the House. These reforms can be accomplished locally, or by changes in federal law and would fundamentally change the way Congress works — in ways that are both good and bad, but where the positives outweigh the negatives.Victor also acknowledges that such a system would allow “the most extreme anti-democratic forces now present in U.S. politics to be institutionalized.” But, she continued, “that faction has always been there, even when we pretended it was gone. At least under a multiparty system it would be contained and perhaps minimized.”There is no guarantee, she notes, but it is possible thatBy creating institutions that give anti-democratic factions legitimacy, they can be controlled and marginalized, rather than pretending they don’t exist and allowing them to overcome the dominant systems.Other political experts question the effectiveness, feasibility and benefits of multi-member districts and proportional representation.Stephen Ansolabehere, a political scientist at Harvard, said by email that “a PR system would be political suicide for the parties.” Why, he asked, “would either party — let alone both — want to change?”This idea, Ansolabehere, “is not going anywhere. Good armchair speculation but it has no political support.”Bruce Cain, a political scientist at Stanford, raised another set of issues:The first question to ask when considering a reform proposal is what problem are you trying to solve? If you are interested in making it easier for the center left and center right to enter into a governing coalition, then PR might be the solution.But, he continued,It would come at a cost: more government instability as potential coalition allies jockey over cabinet posts, a particular issue or a budget item. It would also give the far ends of the political spectrum continuous formal representation in the political system. The Trumps could more easily realize their goal of becoming the Le Pens of America.More important, Cain argues,If the reform goal is to end polarization and limit populism, institutional tinkering is probably not the answer: the roots of these problems lie more deeply in economic, racial and cultural divisions exacerbated by social media, globalization and automation.The very fact that there is considerable disagreement within the ranks of political scientists, a center-left constituency, suggests that prospects for major reforms of the election system by Congress are not good.The key question is whether the formation of an angry and virulently discontent base of MAGA voters in the Republican Party — spreading obscurantist, cultish pseudo-politics — will push the long-term problems of polarization past a tipping point, threatening even more dangerous levels of disruption to the political system.If growing numbers of citizens and elected officials reach that conclusion, the odds could change, as more voters and politicians join John Carey, a political scientist at Dartmouth, in the view thatThe MAGA wing would certainly win representation if we moved to multiple-winner elections. Of course, they win a lot already — and arguably hold some Republican legislators who might prefer to move toward the center hostage via primary threats. The bet on multi-winner is that the relative gains of moderates would outstrip those of extremists. It’s a bet I’d make, but still a bet.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Why Thousands of Republicans Are Leaving the Party

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Capitol Riot FalloutTracking the ArrestsVisual TimelineInside the SiegeMurder Charges?The Oath KeepersAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main story‘There’s Nothing Left’: Why Thousands of Republicans Are Leaving the PartyVoting registration data indicates a stronger-than-usual flight from the G.O.P. since the Capitol riot, with an intensely fluid period in American politics now underway.In the days and weeks after the storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, thousands of Republicans left the party. In some states, the surge in registration changes was particularly noticeable. Credit…Erin Schaff/The New York TimesNick Corasaniti, Annie Karni and Feb. 10, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ETIn the days after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, the phone lines and websites of local election officials across the country were jumping: Tens of thousands of Republicans were calling or logging on to switch their party affiliations.In California, more than 33,000 registered Republicans left the party during the three weeks after the Washington riot. In Pennsylvania, more than 12,000 voters left the G.O.P. in the past month, and more than 10,000 Republicans changed their registration in Arizona.An analysis of January voting records by The New York Times found that nearly 140,000 Republicans had quit the party in 25 states that had readily available data (19 states do not have registration by party). Voting experts said the data indicated a stronger-than-usual flight from a political party after a presidential election, as well as the potential start of a damaging period for G.O.P. registrations as voters recoil from the Capitol violence and its fallout.Among those who recently left the party are Juan Nunez, 56, an Army veteran in Mechanicsburg, Pa. He said he had long felt that the difference between the United States and many other countries was that campaign-season fighting ended on Election Day, when all sides would peacefully accept the result. The Jan. 6 riot changed that, he said.“What happened in D.C. that day, it broke my heart,” said Mr. Nunez, a lifelong Republican who is preparing to register as an independent. “It shook me to the core.”The biggest spikes in Republicans leaving the party came in the days after Jan. 6, especially in California, where there were 1,020 Republican changes on Jan. 5 — and then 3,243 on Jan. 7. In Arizona, there were 233 Republican changes in the first five days of January, and 3,317 in the next week. Most of the Republicans in these states and others switched to unaffiliated status.A crowd cheering for Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Kamala Harris as they spoke at the Chase Center after winning the election on Nov. 7. Credit…Amr Alfiky/The New York TimesVoter rolls often change after presidential elections, when registrations sometimes shift toward the winner’s party or people update their old affiliations to correspond to their current party preferences, often at a department of motor vehicles. Other states remove inactive voters, deceased voters or those who moved out of state from all parties, and lump those people together with voters who changed their own registrations. Of the 25 states surveyed by The Times, Nevada, Kansas, Utah and Oklahoma had combined such voter list maintenance with registration changes, so their overall totals would not be limited to changes that voters made themselves. Other states may have done so, as well, but did not indicate in their public data.Among Democrats, 79,000 have left the party since early January.But the tumult at the Capitol, and the historic unpopularity of former President Donald J. Trump, have made for an intensely fluid period in American politics. Many Republicans denounced the pro-Trump forces that rioted on Jan. 6, and 10 Republican House members voted to impeach Mr. Trump. Sizable numbers of Republicans now say they support key elements of President Biden’s stimulus package; typically, the opposing party is wary if not hostile toward the major policy priorities of a new president.“Since this is such a highly unusual activity, it probably is indicative of a larger undercurrent that’s happening, where there are other people who are likewise thinking that they no longer feel like they’re part of the Republican Party, but they just haven’t contacted election officials to tell them that they might change their party registration,” said Michael P. McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. “So this is probably a tip of an iceberg.”But, he cautioned, it could also be the vocal “never Trump” reality simply coming into focus as Republicans finally took the step of changing their registration, even though they hadn’t supported the president and his party since 2016.Kevin Madden, a former Republican operative who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, fits this trend line, though he was ahead of the recent exodus. He said he changed his registration to independent a year ago, after watching what he called the harassment of career foreign service officials at Mr. Trump’s first impeachment trial.Kevin Madden, a former Republican operative who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, changed his registration to independent a year ago.Credit…Evan Vucci/Associated Press“It’s not a birthright and it’s not a religion,” Mr. Madden said of party affiliation. “Political parties should be more like your local condo association. If the condo association starts to act in a way that’s inconsistent with your beliefs, you move.”As for the overall trend of Republicans abandoning their party, he said that it was too soon to say if it spelled trouble in the long term, but that the numbers couldn’t be overlooked. “In all the time I worked in politics,” he said, “the thing that always worried me was not the position but the trend line.”Some G.O.P. officials noted the significant gains in registration that Republicans have seen recently, including before the 2020 election, and noted that the party had rebounded quickly in the past.“You never want to lose registrations at any point, and clearly the January scene at the Capitol exacerbated already considerable issues Republicans are having with the center of the electorate,” said Josh Holmes, a top political adviser to Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader. “Today’s receding support really pales in comparison to the challenges of a decade ago, however, when Republicans went from absolute irrelevance to a House majority within 18 months.”He added, “If Republicans can reunite behind basic conservative principles and stand up to the liberal overreach of the Biden administration, things will change a lot quicker than people think.”In North Carolina, the shift was immediately noticeable. The state experienced a notable surge in Republicans changing their party affiliation: 3,007 in the first week after the riot, 2,850 the next week and 2,120 the week after that. A consistent 650 or so Democrats changed their party affiliation each week.But state G.O.P. officials downplayed any significance in the changes, and expressed confidence that North Carolina, a battleground state that has leaned Republican recently, will remain in their column.“Relatively small swings in the voter registration over a short period of time in North Carolina’s pool of over seven million registered voters are not particularly concerning,” Tim Wigginton, the communications director for the state party, said in a statement, predicting that North Carolina would continue to vote Republican at the statewide level.Trump supporters gathered to protest at the Arizona State Capitol in Phoenix on the day of Mr. Biden’s inauguration.Credit…Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York TimesIn Arizona, 10,174 Republicans have changed their party registration since the attack as the state party has shifted ever further to the right, as reflected by its decision to censure three Republicans — Gov. Doug Ducey, former Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain — for various acts deemed disloyal to Mr. Trump. The party continues to raise questions about the 2020 election, and last week Republicans in the State Legislature backed arresting elections officials from Maricopa County for refusing to comply with wide-ranging subpoenas for election equipment and materials.It is those actions, some Republican strategists in Arizona argue, that prompted the drop in G.O.P. voter registrations in the state.“The exodus that’s happening right now, based on my instincts and all the people who are calling me out here, is that they’re leaving as a result of the acts of sedition that took place and the continued questioning of the Arizona vote,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist in Arizona..css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-c7gg1r{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:0.875rem;line-height:0.875rem;margin-bottom:15px;color:#121212 !important;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-c7gg1r{font-size:0.9375rem;line-height:0.9375rem;}}.css-rqynmc{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:0.9375rem;line-height:1.25rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-rqynmc{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-rqynmc strong{font-weight:600;}.css-rqynmc em{font-style:italic;}.css-yoay6m{margin:0 auto 5px;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-yoay6m{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1dg6kl4{margin-top:5px;margin-bottom:15px;}.css-16ed7iq{width:100%;display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;-webkit-box-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;justify-content:center;padding:10px 0;background-color:white;}.css-pmm6ed{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}.css-pmm6ed > :not(:first-child){margin-left:5px;}.css-5gimkt{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:0.8125rem;font-weight:700;-webkit-letter-spacing:0.03em;-moz-letter-spacing:0.03em;-ms-letter-spacing:0.03em;letter-spacing:0.03em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#333;}.css-5gimkt:after{content:’Collapse’;}.css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transition:all 0.5s ease;transition:all 0.5s ease;-webkit-transform:rotate(180deg);-ms-transform:rotate(180deg);transform:rotate(180deg);}.css-eb027h{max-height:5000px;-webkit-transition:max-height 0.5s ease;transition:max-height 0.5s ease;}.css-6mllg9{-webkit-transition:all 0.5s ease;transition:all 0.5s ease;position:relative;opacity:0;}.css-6mllg9:before{content:”;background-image:linear-gradient(180deg,transparent,#ffffff);background-image:-webkit-linear-gradient(270deg,rgba(255,255,255,0),#ffffff);height:80px;width:100%;position:absolute;bottom:0px;pointer-events:none;}#masthead-bar-one{display:none;}#masthead-bar-one{display:none;}.css-1amoy78{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1amoy78{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-1amoy78:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}.css-1amoy78[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-1amoy78[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-1amoy78[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-1amoy78[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-k9atqk{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-k9atqk strong{font-weight:700;}.css-k9atqk em{font-style:italic;}.css-k9atqk a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid #ccd9e3;}.css-k9atqk a:visited{color:#333;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;}.css-k9atqk a:hover{border-bottom:none;}Capitol Riot FalloutFrom Riot to ImpeachmentThe riot inside the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, Jan. 6, followed a rally at which President Trump made an inflammatory speech to his supporters, questioning the results of the election. Here’s a look at what happened and the ongoing fallout:As this video shows, poor planning and a restive crowd encouraged by President Trump set the stage for the riot.A two hour period was crucial to turning the rally into the riot.Several Trump administration officials, including cabinet members Betsy DeVos and Elaine Chao, announced that they were stepping down as a result of the riot.Federal prosecutors have charged more than 70 people, including some who appeared in viral photos and videos of the riot. Officials expect to eventually charge hundreds of others.The House voted to impeach the president on charges of “inciting an insurrection” that led to the rampage by his supporters.For Heidi Ushinski, 41, the decision to leave the Arizona Republican Party was easy. After the election, she said, she registered as a Democrat because “the Arizona G.O.P. has just lost its mind” and wouldn’t “let go of this fraudulent election stuff.”“The G.O.P. used to stand for what we felt were morals, just character, and integrity,” she added. “I think that the outspoken G.O.P. coming out of Arizona has lost that.”This is the third time Ms. Ushinski has switched her party registration. She usually re-registers to be able to vote against candidates. This time around, she did it because she did not feel that there was a place for people like her in the “new” Republican Party.“I look up to the Jeffry Flakes and the Cindy McCains,” she said. “To see the G.O.P. go after them, specifically, when they speak in ways that I resonate with just shows me that there’s nothing left in the G.O.P. for me to stand for. And it’s really sad.”Mr. Nunez, the Army veteran in Pennsylvania, said his disgust with the Capitol riot was compounded when Republicans in Congress continued to push back on sending stimulus checks and staunchly opposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.“They were so quick to bail out corporations, giving big companies money, but continue to fight over giving money to people in need,” said Mr. Nunez, who plans to change parties this week. “Also, I’m a business owner and I cannot imagine living on $7 an hour. We have to be fair.”Though the volume of voters leaving the G.O.P. varied from state to state, nearly every state surveyed showed a noticeable increase. In Colorado, roughly 4,700 Republican voters changed their registration status in the nine days after the riot. In New Hampshire, about 10,000 left the party’s voter rolls in the past month, and in Louisiana around 5,500 did as well.Even in states with no voter registration by party, some Republicans have been vocal about leaving.Mayor Michael Taylor of Sterling Heights, Mich., did not vote for Mr. Trump a second time in 2020.Credit…Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesIn Michigan, Mayor Michael Taylor of Sterling Heights, the fourth-largest city in the state, already had one foot out the Republican Party door before the 2020 elections. Even as a lifelong Republican, he couldn’t bring himself to vote for Mr. Trump for president after backing him in 2016. He instead cast a ballot for Mr. Biden.After the election, the relentless promotion of conspiracy theories by G.O.P. leaders, and the attack at the Capitol, pushed him all the way out of the party.“There was enough before the election to swear off the G.O.P., but the incredible events since have made it clear to me that I don’t fit into this party,” Mr. Taylor said. “It wasn’t just complaining about election fraud anymore. They have taken control of the Capitol at the behest of the president of the United States. And if there was a clear break with the party in my mind, that was it.”Mr. Taylor plans to run for re-election this year, and even though it’s a nonpartisan race, community members are well aware of the shift in his thinking since the last citywide election in 2017.He already has two challengers, including a staunch Trump supporter, who has begun criticizing Mr. Taylor for his lack of support for the former president.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More