Subterms
Las elecciones de 2016 fueron un referéndum de muchas cosas, incluso sobre lo que los estadounidenses pensaban que una mujer podía hacer o ser. La campaña actual se ha centrado en lo que debería ser un hombre. More
The sustained effort by President Trump, members of his cabinet and other officials to use the powers of incumbency has gone far beyond anything done by his predecessors. More
It will take a long time to drive conspiracy-mongering back to the fringes of American politics. More
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It seemed like the nightmare of 2016 all over again.
On 21 October, less than two weeks before election day, US intelligence and law enforcement officials convened a last-minute press conference to warn that foreign adversaries were once again interfering in American democracy. Iran was spreading false tales about “allegedly fraudulent ballots” and sending spoofed emails purporting to contain threats from the Proud Boys, “designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest and damage President Trump”, said John Ratcliffe, the director of national intelligence. Meanwhile, both Russia and Iran had obtained access to voter information that could be used to “cause confusion, sow chaos and undermine your confidence in American democracy”, he warned.
It was everything that Democrats and disinformation experts have been warning about for the last four years, except, well, not quite.
The email operation had been relatively small and immediately debunked, while voter roll information is either public or easy to obtain. Senior intelligence officials quickly raised doubts about Ratcliffe’s emphasis on the threat from Iran over Russia and questioned whether his motives for the public announcement were political, the New York Times reported.
“It was very difficult to see those men in suits talking about interference in the election when the White House is the one interfering with the election,” said Claire Wardle, the executive director of First Draft, a group that researches and combats disinformation.
After all, when it comes to intimidating voters or inciting social unrest, nothing has had more impact than the constant drumbeat of lies and disinformation from Donald Trump. Years of preparation by the press, social media platforms, and civil society groups for a foreign interference campaign against the US electoral process have been upended by the bizarre reality that the biggest threat to American democracy right now is almost certainly the commander-in-chief, and that his primary mode of attack is a concerted disinformation campaign.
Because how much impact can a few thousand faked emails telling voters in Florida and Alaska to “vote for Trump or else” have on voters compared with Trump directly ordering the Proud Boys, a neo-fascist street gang, to “stand back and stand by” before a television audience of 73 million people? And what kind of false tale of voter fraud could Iran possibly seed that could undermine Americans’ faith in the electoral process more than the disinformation about voter fraud and mail-in ballots coming straight from the White House and Trump’s campaign?
“‘Don’t trust the electoral system, don’t trust the CDC, don’t trust your neighbor because they’re probably antifa, don’t trust the left,’” Wardle said of Trump’s re-election message. “It’s not about persuading people one way or the other, it’s about making them scared and causing confusion and chaos,” she added.
“The media’s been obsessed with Russians under the bed, but to have the president of the United States telling people in the US that they can’t trust the results of the election – Putin could only dream of that kind of thing.”
Social media tactics
Russia’s disinformation campaign in the 2016 presidential election had two main vectors: a social media campaign to sow division and distrust among voters, and a “hack and leak” operation that resulted in the theft and publication of emails and documents stolen from Democrats and Hillary Clinton’s campaign. That hack and leak operation was incredibly successful, with caches of stolen material proving irresistible both for the mainstream press and for conservative activists and conspiracy theorists.
The 2020 iteration of the hack and leak tactic – Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani pushing dubious emails and text messages supposedly obtained from a hard drive linked to Joe Biden’s son Hunter – has been something of a damp squib, however. “You don’t see the same kind of credulous, knee-jerk out-of-control amplification that you saw in 2016,” said Whitney Phillips, a professor at Syracuse University and author of The Oxygen of Amplification, a report examining how the press served the purposes of media manipulators, trolls and hate groups in 2016. The top newspapers have debunked and deflated Giuliani’s claims, and the idea of the pilfered hard drive has failed to capture the public’s interest in the same way that troves of stolen emails did.
But while the Trump re-election campaign may have failed to recapture the magic of 2016 when it comes to hacked emails, the president has taken Russia’s 2016 social media playbook and supercharged it with the power of the White House.
“I’m sure that there is some foreign influence stuff happening and we might know more about it later,” said Phillips. “But so much of the pollution is trickling down from the White House itself, and people have been absolutely overwhelmed with falsehoods and confusion over Covid and ballots … When people get overwhelmed, they either fight or flee. [Trump] is making it almost impossible for people not to get totally burned out and disgusted.” More
In the final hours before election day, one of Donald Trump’s closing messages to Americans is an exaggerated threat: that a Joe Biden presidency will result in a national Covid-19 lockdown.
Speaking in Iowa on Sunday, the president said the election was a “choice between a deadly Biden lockdown … or a safe vaccine that ends the pandemic”.
Coronavirus cases are surging in the US and most battleground states are particularly badly affected. On Friday, the total case count surpassed 9m while the daily count set a new world record, at about 100,000. On Sunday 81,493 new cases were reported, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 447 new deaths. Nearly 231,000 people have died.
In Iowa, painting a dark and dystopian vision, Trump told a crowd of closely packed supporters, many not wearing masks: “The Biden plan will turn America into a prison state locking you down, while letting the far-left rioters roam free to loot and burn.”
That came after he told a rally in Pennsylvania, another swing state, there would be “no school, no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgivings, no Christmas, no Easters, no Fourth of Julys” under a Biden administration.
In an interview in August, Biden was asked if he would shut the US down if scientists said he should do so. He said: “I would shut it down. I would listen to the scientists.” Biden has since clarified that he was referring to whether he would follow advice, saying: “There’s going to be no need, in my view, to be able to shut down the whole economy.”
In October, Biden said: “I don’t think there’s a need to lock down.”
If national and battleground state polling proves accurate and he wins on Tuesday, Biden has pledged to introduce a “Beat Covid-19” plan that includes a national mask mandate, a $25bn vaccine plan guaranteeing free access to every American, improved test-and-trace efforts, and help for schools and small businesses.
On Sunday, he told a drive-in event in Philadelphia: “The truth is, to beat the virus, we first have to beat Donald Trump – he is the virus!”
The former vice-president added: “When America is heard, I believe the message is going to be clear: It’s time for Donald Trump to pack his bags and go home. We’re done with the chaos, the tweets, the anger, the hate.”
Trump has repeated his anti-lockdown message across his social media accounts and campaign ads.
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On Twitter, he wrote: “Biden wants to LOCKDOWN our Country, maybe for years. Crazy!” A campaign ad, entitled “Don’t let Joe Biden lock down our economy”, places footage from the August interview when Biden said he would shut down if scientists advised alongside news footage from lockdowns in Europe and scenes of protest.
With very few voters still undecided, Larry Sabato, director of the Centre for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Trump’s approach was not about converting voters – rather it is about “revving up his base”.
“He is depending on a tremendous turnout tomorrow, and he may get it,” Sabato told the Guardian. “The whole point of it is to remind voters, or the voters remaining, that Trump’s ace card is the economy, and that he’s determined to restore it – even if it means, frankly, more infections and deaths.
“He’s made a clear choice and Biden has chosen the other path, which is to do what Europe’s doing – not necessarily a complete lockdown, but a substantial lockdown and a mask mandate, all the things that Trump and his supporters won’t like. He’s trying to rev them up. And they’re revved up.”
Citing recent incidents in Texas, where Trump supporters appeared to try to force a Biden campaign bus off the road, and in New York and New Jersey on Sunday, when hundreds of cars flying Trump flags blocked traffic, Sabato said: “It’s shocking, really. We’ve never had anything like this … it just suggests what’s going to happen if he [Trump] loses.”
At a midnight rally in Florida, Trump threatened to fire Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert. To chants of “fire Fauci”, he said: “Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election. I appreciate the advice. I appreciate it.”In an interview with the Washington Post, Fauci said the US should prepare for “a whole lot of hurt” and predicted a winter of 100,000-plus cases a day and more deaths.
“It’s not a good situation,” he said. “All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.” More
Key events
Show
10.22am EST10:22
Trump again says supporters in Texas caravan ‘did nothing wrong’
8.39am EST08:39
Coronavirus surging in every key swing state as voters head to polls – ABC News
6.22am EST06:22
Poll: Biden holds 5-point to 7-point lead over Trump in crucial state of Pennsylvania
5.40am EST05:40
Pennsylvania governor to urge patience around election results in new statewide ad
5.19am EST05:19
Morning Consult final poll: Biden has national lead of 8 points over Trump
Live feed
Show
10.22am EST10:22
Trump again says supporters in Texas caravan ‘did nothing wrong’
Donald Trump has once again defended his supporters who participated in a caravan that swarmed a Biden campaign bus driving down a Texas highway on Friday.
Responding to a tweet noting the FBI is investigating the incident, Trump said, “This story is FALSE. They did nothing wrong. But the ANTIFA Anarchists, Rioters and Looters, who have caused so much harm and destruction in Democrat run cities, are being seriously looked at!”
Donald J. Trump
(@realDonaldTrump)
This story is FALSE. They did nothing wrong. But the ANTIFA Anarchists, Rioters and Looters, who have caused so much harm and destruction in Democrat run cities, are being seriously looked at! https://t.co/3pmbMllPWS
November 2, 2020
The FBI confirmed yesterday that it was investigating the highway incident, after videos of the caravan sparked widespread safety concerns.
The president previously appeared to discourage the FBI from investigating the matter, saying in a tweet last night, “In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong. Instead, the FBI & Justice should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists, and agitators of ANTIFA, who run around burning down our Democrat run cities and hurting our people!”
10.18am EST10:18
Donald Trump is en route to Fayetteville, North Carolina, for his first of five campaign rallies on the last day before election day.
Mark Knoller
(@markknoller)
Pres climbs steps to board Air Force One in Miami as he embarks on last day of 5 campaign rallies in NC, PA, WI and 2 in MI, including final rally tonight in Grand Rapids, just like in 2016, that let to his election. pic.twitter.com/T32GePkC84
November 2, 2020
The president was supposed to hold a rally in Fayetteville last Thursday, but it was postponed due to weather concerns.
After the North Carolina rally, Trump will head to Scranton, Pennsylvania, before traveling on to Michigan and Wisconsin.
10.05am EST10:05
Richard Luscombe reports for the Guardian:
A doctored video purporting to show Joe Biden addressing a rally and forgetting which state he was in was viewed more than 1.1m times on social media before it was removed from Twitter. More
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