Bolsonaro, Jair (1955- )

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      Your Monday Briefing: Seoul Mourns Halloween Crush Victims

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      Plus Russia halts Ukrainian grain shipments and Brazilians vote for their next president.A man paid his respects at the memorial site of the crowd crush in Seoul on Sunday.Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesAt least 150 dead in SeoulAt least 150 people were killed in Seoul after they were crushed in a Halloween crowd on Saturday. Most were in their teens and 20s, and women significantly outnumbered men among the victims. South Koreans are trying to understand how the crowd crush happened now that most of the victims have been identified. Witnesses said they saw almost no crowd control and scant police presence in the hours leading up to the tragedy, even though people were filling the streets. The crush happened in Itaewon, a popular nightlife district, on the first Halloween after most pandemic-related social distancing measures were lifted.As the night grew more frenetic and the mass of revelers swelled, many of them crammed into an alleyway barely 11 feet wide, in a bottleneck of human traffic that made it difficult to breathe and move. From within the crowd came calls to “push, push” and a big shove. Then, they began to fall, a tangle of too many bodies, compressed into too small of a space.Toll: At a community center where family members had been awaiting news, wrenching wails followed dreaded confirmations. Shin Su-Bin, 25, is among the dead. Her family had been calling her phone that night to no answer.Details: Among those killed in Itaewon, Seoul’s most diverse neighborhood, were citizens of the U.S., China, Iran, Norway and Uzbekistan. Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea’s president, has declared a weeklong period of national mourning.Context: The tragedy is one of the deadliest peacetime accidents in South Korea’s history. In recent years, it has been eclipsed only by the Sewol ferry sinking in 2014, where more than 300 people died — including 250 high school students.Friends and relatives helped Anna Moroz, 80, salvage what she could from her home in Ukraine.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesRussia pulls back from grain dealOn Saturday, Russia withdrew from a deal that had allowed grain to be exported from Ukrainian ports, upending an agreement that was intended to alleviate a global food crisis. Yesterday, the U.N. and Turkey pushed to revive the deal, which they helped broker.Russia’s move came hours after a drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, which Russia blamed on Ukraine. Russia said it could no longer ensure the security of cargo ships taking grain from Ukrainian ports and would suspend the agreement’s implementation “for an indefinite period.”The State of the WarGrain Deal: After accusing Ukraine of attacking its ships in Crimea, Russia withdrew from an agreement allowing the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. The move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination aimed at lowering global food prices and combating hunger.Turning the Tables: With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has an artillery advantage over Russia in the southern Kherson region, erasing what had been a critical asset for Moscow.Fears of Escalation: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia repeated the unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb, as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was seeking a pretext to escalate the war.A Coalition Under Strain: President Biden is facing new challenges keeping together the bipartisan, multinational coalition supporting Ukraine. The alliance has shown signs of fraying with the approach of the U.S. midterm elections and a cold European winter.The grain deal, which was signed in July, also aimed to lower food prices. Russia’s move jeopardized a rare case of wartime coordination, which ended a five-month Russian blockade. The deal allowed more than 9.2 million tons of grain and foodstuffs to be exported again. Many were bound for poor countries.Reaction: The U.S. accused Russia of using food as a weapon. “It’s really outrageous to increase starvation,” President Biden said on Saturday. Fighting: With Western weaponry, Ukraine now has a front line advantage in the south. Despite the slog of mud season, its army keeps advancing.Toll: Ukraine’s children face years of trauma.Brazil’s vote is one of Latin America’s most important in decades. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBrazilians choose their new presidentVoters headed to the polls yesterday to cast their ballots in a presidential runoff. Polls closed just before this newsletter was sent, and results are still coming. Here are live results and an overview of the race.Voters faced a stark choice after an ugly campaign. Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, seeks a second term as president. He faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the once-incarcerated former leader who vows to revive leftist policies.The vote carries major consequences for the Amazon, and thus the entire planet. Bolsonaro gutted the agencies tasked with protecting the rainforest, leading to increased deforestation. Da Silva has vowed to eradicate illegal logging and mining.It is also a test for democracy. Bolsonaro has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, including a sustained effort to undermine its election systems. In so doing, he has destroyed public trust in the elections.What’s next: If Bolsonaro loses, will he accept his defeat?Details: Brazil’s elections chief ordered the head of the country’s highway police to answer allegations that he had ordered traffic stops, particularly of buses transporting voters to the polls, in an effort to suppress turnout.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificDozens of Australians, many of whom are children, remain in the camps.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesSeventeen Australians have returned home from Islamic State detention camps in northeast Syria, where they had lived since 2019. Dozens remain at the camps.At least 70 people were killed after a suspension bridge collapsed in the western Indian state of Gujarat yesterday.Flooding and landslides left at least 45 people dead in the Philippines.Kazuki Takahashi, who created Yu-Gi-Oh!, died in July. New details have been released: The 60-year-old drowned while trying to save others.Around the WorldElon Musk took charge of Twitter and quickly ordered layoffs. My colleagues analyzed the deal on “Hard Fork,” our podcast.Israel will hold its Parliamentary elections tomorrow. Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading candidate.At least 100 people died in the deadliest terrorist attack in Somalia in five years.The U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was attacked in their home. He is expected to heal, but the encounter highlights fears of growing political violence in the U.S. Other Big StoriesRishi Sunak, Britain’s new prime minister, married into a secretive $800 million fortune, which might not fit within his party’s views.The U.S. released Guantánamo’s oldest prisoner, a 75-year-old businessman who was held for nearly two decades without being charged with a crime.Census data revealed that more than one in five Canadians is an immigrant. Polls show the nation approves.Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen divorced after 13 years of marriage.A Morning ReadThis year, parts of Riyadh, the Saudi capital, looked like creatures from a haunted house had escaped and taken over the city.Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesUntil recently, Saudi Arabia banned Halloween, which was viewed as suspicious and pagan. But this past weekend, the kingdom hosted a government-sponsored “horror weekend” — not strictly speaking a Halloween festival, but certainly conveniently timed.Clowns and goblins filled the streets, and costume shops sold out almost as fast as employees could restock the shelves. “Saudi is changing,” said a young man going as a wizard.UP FOR DEBATEShould daylight saving time end?Mexico City (and most of the rest of Mexico) would stop springing forward and falling back.Marco Ugarte/Associated PressLast week, Mexico’s Senate voted to end daylight saving time for most of the country, prioritizing morning light. In March, the U.S. Senate took the opposite approach when it unanimously passed legislation to make daylight saving time permanent. (The House has not found consensus.)Each side of the debate carries strong opinions. The business community generally supports keeping daylight saving time: Many retailers and outdoor industries say that extra afternoon light can boost sales because people have more time to spend money after work or school.But many scientists believe that doing away with it, as Mexico is poised to do, is better for human health. They argue that aligns more closely with the sun’s progression — and, therefore, with the body’s natural clock.Mexico’s Senate seems to agree. “This new law seeks to guarantee the human right to health and increase safety in the mornings, procure the well-being and productivity of the population, and contribute to saving electric energy,” the body said on Twitter.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChristopher Simpson for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Start your week off right with this simple salted-caramel rice pudding for dessert.What to Watch“The Novelist’s Film,” by the South Korean director Hong Sang-soo, is a study in small moments and chance encounters.Tech TipA latecomers’ guide to TikTok.TravelThe next time you’re in Mexico City, tour the former houses of Frida Kahlo, Diego Rivera and Leon Trotsky.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Hair colorer (three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. Happy Halloween, and see you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Jenna Russell, a longtime reporter at The Boston Globe, will be our next New England bureau chief.Start your week with this narrated long read about animal voyages. And here is Friday’s edition of “The Daily,” on Brazil’s elections.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Brazil’s Runoff Faces ‘Spiritual Warfare’ for Evangelical Voters

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      As the race between Brazil’s right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, and his leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, tightened, Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies intensified their courting of a voting bloc key to his campaign: evangelical Christians.In the days leading to Sunday’s runoff election, the country was awash in harsh attacks against Mr. da Silva that were meant in part to sway evangelical voters, who make up by some estimates roughly 30 percent of the population and have become key supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro.The president likely needs this bloc, which tends to be more conservative than other religious groups in Brazil, to vote for him in significant numbers if he is to win a second term.Mr. Bolsonaro won more than 60 percent of the evangelical vote in his first campaign for the presidency in 2018 and received a similar percentage during the first round of voting in this election cycle.Evangelicals are the only religious group that has clear political representation in Congress, and they vote as a bloc on certain conservative topics.Bolsonaro supporters in recent weeks accused Mr. da Silva of being a Satanist who would close churches if he won and described him as a supporter of abortion rights, the legalization of drugs and “gender ideology,” a movement to re-examine the concept of gender.Mr. Bolsonaro amplified some of these claims. “When someone is in favor of abortion, as Lula is in favor, the guy turns on the yellow light,” the president said in a recent interview on a podcast, warning voters to be wary of Mr. da Silva.Mr. da Silva, who has said he is opposed to abortion rights and the legalization of drugs, recently had to clarify that he does not have a pact with the devil. (He has not given a position on “gender ideology.”)Mr. Bolsonaro has also drawn the backing of evangelical pastors who have used their pulpits to pressure their congregants to vote for the president.“The speeches within the churches say that this is not an election, but spiritual warfare,” said Vinicius do Valle, a political scientist and the leader of the Observatory of Evangelicals, an organization studying their impact on Brazilian society.Mr. da. Silva’s allies have fired back with their own attacks on Mr. Bolsonaro’s character, including trying to link him to freemasonry and questioning his sexual morals by pointing to a video in which he suggests sexual interest in teenage girls.Mr. Bolsonaro has also been accused of cannibalism because of another video, a 2016 interview with The New York Times in which he talks of eating an Indigenous person.Mr. da Silva, who has said that he has “never used religion in his campaign,” recently met with evangelical leaders and called Mr. Bolsonaro a “compulsive liar.” More

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      Brazil Election Officials Demand Answers for Police Stops of Voters

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      RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s elections chief ordered the head of the country’s highway police to answer allegations that he had ordered traffic stops, particularly of buses transporting voters to the polls, in an effort to suppress turnout in Sunday’s presidential election.There were dozens of reports on social media on Sunday that federal highway agents were stopping vehicles and questioning people in several states across Brazil. Such stops appeared to violate orders from election officials on Saturday to halt any traffic stops on Election Day that could hinder people’s efforts to vote.Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice who leads Brazil’s election agency, issued an order to the head of Brazil’s federal highway police, calling on the official to provide proof that his officers were not violating election rules to benefit President Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent.In the order, Mr. Moraes included a link to a tweet from a person claiming that the highway police had set up a roadblock in the northeastern city of Cuité and were not letting people pass. “It’s already driving away the population of the countryside!” the tweet said. Brazil’s northeast is a leftist stronghold.On Sunday afternoon, Mr. Moraes told reporters that election officials’ initial investigation found that the stops delayed the buses, but they all still reached their intended polling stations. “We didn’t have any voters who didn’t vote because of the operations,” he said.Silvinei Vasques, the highway police chief, responded to Mr. Moraes’s order to halt Election Day traffic stops, saying that the highway police would not target public buses. But, he added, the police would continue to conduct stops because, he said, Mr. Moraes’s order did not apply to all federal highway operations.As of Sunday afternoon, the federal highway police had stopped more than 550 buses across the country, according to a federal highway officer with access to internal data who spoke on condition of anonymity. On Sunday, Oct. 2, in the first round of voting, the highway police stopped nearly 300 buses, according to the officer.A post on Mr. Vasques’s official Instagram account on Saturday urged people to vote for Mr. Bolsonaro, according to O Globo, one of Brazil’s biggest newspapers. The kind of message he posted automatically disappears from Instagram after 24 hours and was no longer visible on Sunday. Mr. Vazques had previously posted various photos with Mr. Bolsonaro.Thomas Thaler, 45, a computer programmer, said his wife gave up on voting after her bus got stuck in traffic and then was stopped by highway police on the way to vote in Recife, a large city on Brazil’s northeastern coast. She eventually exited the bus and took a different bus back home. She said she had planned to vote for Mr. da Silva.Jessica Sousa, 22, a student, said she was stuck in traffic near Cuité in Brazil’s northeast and then eventually questioned by the highway police, who requested her I.D. and asked about her plans. She eventually managed to get to a polling station and vote for Mr. da Silva. More

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      Segunda vuelta en Brasil: lo que hay que saber

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      La votación se realizará tras una larga y dura campaña política que enfrenta a dos figuras políticas importantes en una contienda que ha puesto a prueba la democracia del país.Los brasileños acudirán a las urnas el domingo para elegir a un nuevo presidente en una disputada segunda vuelta entre dos candidatos que ofrecen visiones marcadamente distintas para el futuro de la democracia más grande de América Latina.El presidente de derecha, Jair Bolsonaro, ha movilizado a sus simpatizantes en torno a lo que califica como un ataque de la izquierda a los valores familiares y las libertades individuales. Ha caracterizado como enemigos a los académicos, los medios de comunicación e incluso a instituciones democráticas como el Congreso brasileño y el Supremo Tribunal Federal.El candidato de izquierda Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien es expresidente de la nación, ha prometido que gobernará para todos los brasileños y que devolverá el país a un pasado más próspero, aunque su propia historia de escándalos por corrupción ha dividido a los votantes.Durante la primera vuelta realizada el 2 de octubre, Da Silva obtuvo alrededor de seis millones de votos más que Bolsonaro —quien quedó en segundo lugar—, pero no alcanzó el umbral del 50 por ciento necesario para evitar una segunda vuelta. A Bolsonaro le fue mucho mejor de lo que habían pronosticado las encuestas, lo que sugiere que la contienda del domingo podría estar reñida.El domingo, la autoridad electoral comenzará a publicar los resultados después del cierre de las urnas, a las 4:00 p. m. hora del Este. El nuevo presidente prestará juramento el 1 de enero.El Times cubrirá las elecciones en vivo durante todo el día.Una parte de la selva amazónica es incendiada para extender las áreas de pastoreo de ganado en 2019, cerca de la ciudad de Porto Velho, en el estado de Rondônia.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Cuáles son los temas políticos más importantes?La elección sucede en un momento crucial para Brasil, en el que el aumento de los precios de los alimentos y el combustible, junto con una dolorosa desaceleración económica, han hecho que la vida sea más difícil para muchos brasileños. Alrededor de 33 millones de los 217 millones de habitantes del país padecen hambre. La pobreza se ha incrementado, lo que ha revertido décadas de progreso social y económico.Las preocupaciones ambientales y climáticas también ocupan un lugar preponderante. Bajo el gobierno de Bolsonaro —quien ha debilitado las protecciones ambientales y ha defendido la idea de que la selva tropical debería estar abierta a la minería, la ganadería y la agricultura— la deforestación en la Amazonía ha alcanzado niveles históricos en 15 años. La destrucción de la Amazonía y sus efectos en los esfuerzos para evitar una crisis climática ha convertido a Brasil en un paria global.También hay cuestionamientos persistentes sobre la salud de la democracia de Brasil. Bolsonaro ha sembrado dudas sobre la integridad del sistema electoral: ha afirmado, sin pruebas, que las máquinas electrónicas de votación del país pueden ser manipuladas. Bolsonaro ha dicho que, si pierde el domingo, solo será porque hubo fraude.Esto ha alimentado las preocupaciones —tanto en el país como en el extranjero— de que una potencial derrota de Bolsonaro pueda impulsarlo a atizar a sus millones de seguidores y pedirles que salgan a las calles a exigir que permanezca en el poder.Un desfile militar a favor del presidente Jair Bolsonaro en agostoVictor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Qué propone Bolsonaro?Bolsonaro ha prometido pagos en efectivo de alrededor de 113 dólares mensuales a las familias necesitadas, en lo que sería una extensión de una política temporal creada para aliviar las dificultades generadas por la pandemia.Continuar con ese programa, el cual remplazó una iniciativa similar pero menos generosa presentada por Da Silva, tiene como objetivo “reducir la pobreza y contribuir al crecimiento económico sostenible”, según el plan político oficial de Bolsonaro.En vísperas de las elecciones, Bolsonaro ha realizado un gran gasto en asistencia social y subsidios de combustible.También se comprometió a crear empleos a través de la eliminación de trámites burocráticos, recorte de impuestos e inversión en tecnología. En otro guiño a los líderes empresariales, quienes le brindaron un apoyo vital durante su primera contienda a la presidencia, Bolsonaro afirmó que mantendrá una estrategia de libre mercado y que mantendrá bajo control la deuda pública.Repitiendo la retórica que hace cuatro años le ganó el apoyo de los votantes ultraconservadores y evangélicos, Bolsonaro también ha prometido defender a “la familia”: se opondrá al aborto legal y a la educación trans en las escuelas.Bolsonaro también ha prometido expandir las políticas de mano dura contra el crimen y se comprometió a ampliar aún más el acceso a las armas de fuego, una política a la que le atribuye una reducción de los delitos violentos en todo Brasil.A retrato del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un político de izquierda que contiende por la presidencia contra Bolsonaro, en São PauloVictor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Qué propone Da Silva?Da Silva lideró una era dorada de crecimiento durante sus dos periodos en la presidencia, cuando un auge impulsado por las materias primas convirtió a Brasil en una historia de éxito mundial. Da Silva ha prometido devolver el país a esos días de gloria.El candidato de izquierda ha prometido aumentarles los impuestos a los ricos e incrementar el gasto público, “metiendo a la gente en el presupuesto”. Sus planes incluyen una gran cantidad de programas sociales, como un vale mensual de 113 dólares para competir con el propuesto por Bolsonaro. Las familias pobres con niños recibirán adicionalmente otros 28 dólares mensuales por cada niño menor de 6 años.También ha prometido ajustar el salario mínimo de Brasil de acuerdo con la inflación y reactivar un plan de vivienda para los pobres, además de garantizar la seguridad alimentaria para las personas que padecen hambre.Da Silva, quien fue sindicalista, planea impulsar el crecimiento y “crear oportunidades de empleo” a través de la inversión en infraestructura. Sin embargo, también tiene planeado invertir en una “economía ecológica” y ha advertido que Brasil debe hacer la transición a sistemas energéticos y alimentarios más sostenibles.En cuanto a la Amazonía, ha afirmado que tomará medidas enérgicas contra los delitos ambientales cometidos por milicias, acaparadores de tierras, madereros y otros.Electores hacían fila para votar en la primera vuelta este mes en Brasilia, BrasilDado Galdieri para The New York Times¿Qué ha sucedido desde la primera vuelta?En la primera vuelta, Da Silva obtuvo el 48 por ciento de los votos, mientras que Bolsonaro recibió el 43 por ciento, superando significativamente las proyecciones de las encuestas preelectorales y planteando dudas sobre la credibilidad de las encuestadoras.Ese desacierto de los sondeos también le dio credibilidad a las afirmaciones de Bolsonaro de que las encuestas no reflejan con precisión su popularidad.Los sondeos previos a la votación del domingo muestran a Da Silva con una ventaja estrecha sobre Bolsonaro. Ambos candidatos están intensificando sus esfuerzos para apuntalar el apoyo de los votantes.Da Silva se ha centrado en proyectar un tono más moderado y forjar alianzas con candidatos presidenciales de centro que no pasaron la primera vuelta, como una forma de obtener parte de los 10 millones de votantes que los apoyaron.Bolsonaro se ha acercado a los gobernadores de derecha en los tres estados más poblados de Brasil, con la intención de convertir respaldos políticos en votos. También ha reclutado a líderes religiosos en su búsqueda por ampliar su ventaja entre los votantes evangélicos.Sin embargo, gran parte de la campaña —la cual ya está marcada por la desinformación y los feroces ataques en línea— se ha convertido en un festival de insultos y difamaciones en el que se debate poco sobre los desafíos que enfrentará el próximo líder del país.Bolsonaro ha intentado vincular a su rival con el satanismo, lo que impulsó a Da Silva a emitir un comunicado en el que confirmó que “no tiene un pacto” con el diablo. Por su parte, Da Silva ha aprovechado la difusión de videos poco halagadores de Bolsonaro que lo vinculan con la masonería, el canibalismo y la pedofilia.Inspectores del Tribunal Electoral realizan pruebas finales en máquinas de votación electrónica en São Paulo.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Cómo funciona el proceso de votación?Los brasileños emitirán sus votos en máquinas electrónicas de votación, un sistema que ha estado vigente durante más de dos décadas y que ha sido el foco de las denuncias de Bolsonaro sobre el riesgo de fraude electoral.Unos 156 millones de brasileños cumplen con los requisitos para votar en las elecciones. Votar en Brasil es obligatorio, aunque la multa por no hacerlo es menor a un dólar y es mayormente simbólica. En la primera vuelta, la participación rondó el 79 por ciento.La participación por lo general suele ser menor en la segunda vuelta porque la eliminación de candidatos tras la primera vuelta mitiga el entusiasmo de algunos votantes. Algunos votantes más pobres que se inclinarían a favorecer a Da Silva también podrían quedarse en casa porque el costo de trasladarse hacia un centro electoral en un país tan grande puede llegar a ser un desincentivo. More

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      Bolsonaro vs. Lula: What to Know About Brazil’s Runoff Election

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      The vote comes after a long and ugly campaign that pits two major political figures against each other in race that has tested the country’s democracy.Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president in a bruising runoff between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the future of Latin America’s biggest democracy.The right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, has rallied supporters around what he calls a leftist attack on family values and individual liberties. He has cast academics, the media and even democratic institutions, including Brazil’s Congress and Supreme Court, as enemies.The leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, has vowed to govern for all Brazilians, while returning the country to a more prosperous past, though his own history of corruption scandals has divided voters.During the first round of voting on Oct. 2, Mr. da Silva drew about six million more votes than Mr. Bolsonaro, who came in second, but he fell short of the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff. Mr. Bolsonaro did far better than pollsters had predicted, suggesting that Sunday’s race could be close.On Sunday, the electoral authority will start releasing results after polls close at 4 p.m. E.S.T. The new president will be sworn in on Jan. 1. The Times will be covering the election live all day.A section of the Amazon rainforest being burned to expand areas for cattle grazing in 2019, near the city of Porto Velho, in the state of Rondônia.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat are the issues?The election comes at a crucial moment for Brazil, where surging food and fuel prices, coupled with a painful economic slowdown, have made life harder for many Brazilians. About 33 million of the country’s 217 million people are experiencing hunger, while poverty has surged, reversing decades of social and economic progress.Environmental and climate worries also loom large. Deforestation in the Amazon has hit 15-year highs under Mr. Bolsonaro, who has weakened environmental protections and argued that the rainforest should be opened to mining, ranching and agriculture. The Amazon’s destruction — and its effects on the efforts to avert a climate crisis — has turned Brazil into a global outcast.There are also lingering questions about the health of Brazil’s democracy. Mr. Bolsonaro has sowed doubts about the integrity of the electoral system, claiming without evidence that the country’s electronic voting machines can be rigged. If he loses on Sunday, he has said, it would only be because of fraud.This has fueled worries — at home and abroad — that a potential loss for Mr. Bolsonaro may prompt him to rally his millions of supporters, calling on them to take to the streets and demand that he remain in power.A military parade for President Jair Bolsonaro in August.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat does Mr. Bolsonaro propose?Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to hand out cash payments of about $113 a month to needy families, extending a temporary policy originally created to ease the pandemic’s blow.Continuing the program, which replaced a similar but less generous initiative introduced under Mr. da Silva, is meant to “reduce poverty and contribute to sustainable economic growth,” according to Mr. Bolsonaro’s official policy plan.Ahead of the election, Mr. Bolsonaro has spent heavily on welfare and fuel subsidies.He has also pledged to create jobs by eliminating bureaucratic red tape, slashing taxes and investing in technology. In a further nod to business leaders, who provided him vital support during his first run for president, Mr. Bolsonaro said he would maintain a free market approach and keep public debt in check.Echoing the rhetoric that won him support from ultraconservative and evangelical voters four years ago, Mr. Bolsonaro also promises to defend “the family,” opposing legal abortion and transgender education in schools. Mr. Bolsonaro also promises to expand tough-on-crime policies, pledging to further expand access to firearms, a policy he credits for a drop in violent crime across Brazil.A banner in São Paulo in support of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist who is challenging Mr. Bolsonaro. Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat does Mr. da Silva propose?Mr. da Silva oversaw a golden era of growth during his two terms in office, when a commodity-fueled boom turned Brazil into a global success story. He promises to return the country to those glory days.The leftist candidate vows to raise taxes on the rich and boost public spending, “putting the people in the budget.” His plans include a slew of social programs, such as a $113 monthly cash voucher rivaling the one proposed by Mr. Bolsonaro. Poor families with children will also receive another $28 per month for each child under 6.Mr. da Silva has also promised to adjust Brazil’s minimum wage in step with inflation and revive a housing plan for the poor, while guaranteeing food security for people facing hunger.A former trade unionist, Mr. da Silva plans to kick start growth and “create work and employment opportunities” by spending on infrastructure. But he also plans to invest in a “green economy,” warning that Brazil must shift to more sustainable energy and food systems.On the Amazon, Mr. da Silva has signaled that he will crack down on environmental crimes by militias, land grabbers, loggers and others.Voters lining up during the first round of voting this month in Brasília, Brazil.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesWhat has happened since the first vote?In the first round of voting, Mr. da Silva won 48 percent of the vote, while Mr. Bolsonaro received 43 percent of the vote, significantly outperforming pre-election polls and raising questions about the credibility of polling firms.The flawed polls also gave credence to Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that the surveys did not accurately reflect his popularity.Polls heading into Sunday’s vote show Mr. da Silva with a narrowing lead over Mr. Bolsonaro with both candidates intensifying efforts to shore up voter support.Mr. da Silva has focused on striking a more moderate tone and forging alliances with centrist presidential candidates who did not make it out of the first round as a way to win over some of the 10 million voters who cast ballots for them.Mr. Bolsonaro has cozied up to right-wing governors in Brazil’s three most populous states, seeking to turn political endorsements into votes. He has also enlisted religious leaders in his quest to widen his advantage among evangelical voters.Still, much of the campaign — already marked by misinformation and vicious online attacks — has devolved into mudslinging with little discussion of the challenges the country’s next leader will face.Mr. Bolsonaro’s has tried to tie his rival to Satanism, prompting Mr. da Silva to issue a statement confirming that he “does not have a pact” with the devil. Mr. da Silva, for his part, has seized on unflattering videos of Mr. Bolsonaro that link him to freemasonry, cannibalism and pedophilia.Electoral Court inspectors carry out final tests on electronic voting machines in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesHow does the vote work?Brazilians will cast ballots on electronic voting machines, a system that has been in place for more than two decades and that has been the focus of Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims about the risk of election fraud.Some 156 million Brazilians are eligible to cast a ballot in the election. Voting in Brazil is compulsory, though the fine for not casting a ballot is less than a dollar and mostly symbolic. In the first round, turnout was roughly 79 percent.Turnout typically falls in the second round because the elimination of candidates after the first round dampens enthusiasm among some voters. Some poorer voters who would tend to favor Mr. da Silva might also sit out the runoff because the cost of getting to the polls in such a sprawling country can be a disincentive. More

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      Brazil Confronts a Momentous Bolsonaro vs. Lula Election

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      Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in an election between two political heavyweights that could have global repercussions.RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil on Sunday faces a crossroads.After months of pitches to voters, the nation will decide one of Latin America’s most important elections in decades, picking between the two biggest names in modern Brazilian politics and their polar visions for the country.The choice for Brazilians is whether to give President Jair Bolsonaro a second term, emboldening and empowering him to carry out a far-right mandate for the nation, or whether to bring back former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and return Brazil to a leftist track.Yet the stakes are far higher than simply a contest between the left and the right.The election carries major consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which is crucial to the health of the planet. Mr. Bolsonaro has gutted the agencies tasked with protecting the forest, leading to soaring deforestation, while Mr. da Silva has promised to eradicate illegal logging and mining.Brazil’s economy, once the world’s sixth largest, has flatlined over the past decade. Mr. Bolsonaro pledges to pursue deregulation and privatization to try to jump-start activity, while Mr. da Silva has made his central pitch about feeding and housing the poor, whose numbers have climbed during the pandemic.Mr. da Silva has run on promises to feed and house the poor, and to eradicate illegal logging and mining in the Amazon rain forest.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesThe vote is a test of the enduring strength of the right-wing populism that swept across many countries in recent years. Mr. Bolsonaro is one of the biggest remaining faces of that movement, but he is trying to withstand a recent clear shift to the left across Latin America.And then there is the concern for the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies. Mr. Bolsonaro has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, including a sustained effort to undermine its voting system, leading millions of Brazilians to lose faith in the integrity of their nation’s elections.Now, much of the country is wondering: If the president loses the election, will he accept it?After Mr. da Silva led in the first round of voting earlier this month, many polls suggest the race has narrowed. The two men have split this country of 217 million people nearly down the middle, with many voters on each side viewing the choice as an existential one for the nation.“We have a population completely divided between two worlds,” said Malu Gaspar, a political columnist for O Globo, one of Brazil’s biggest newspapers. “So I have a lot of anticipated frustration that this is the most important election of our time, and yet we will come out of it with a lot of more problems than when we went in.”The close race, high stakes and deep polarization have led to an ugly campaign. Misinformation has soared in recent weeks, with supporters of Mr. da Silva accusing Mr. Bolsonaro of being a cannibal and a pedophile, while Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have called Mr. da Silva a gang leader, a communist and a Satanist who wants to close the nation’s churches.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro during a rally at a church square in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesElection officials have tried to intervene, ordering posts and videos off the internet that they say are false. Those efforts have slowed the deluge of misleading information, but they have also become their own controversy, drawing a swell of complaints of unfair refereeing, particularly from Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies.The debates between the two candidates devolved into name calling and disputes over their past versus their plans for the future. And there has been a spate of political violence, with countless beatings and at least two killings connected to the election.This week, the violence and claims of censorship from the right collided when the authorities tried to arrest a right-wing congressman whom the Supreme Court had ordered not to speak publicly because, it said, he had attacked Brazil’s democratic institutions. He responded by shooting at the police and throwing a grenade, injuring two officers. He is now in jail.With a victory on Sunday, Mr. da Silva would complete a stunning political revival. The former shoeshine boy and metalworker with a fifth-grade education rose to become Brazil’s president in 2003. He then used a commodity boom and the discovery of offshore oil to reshape the country, lifting 20 million Brazilians out of extreme poverty. By the time he left office in 2010, he had an 80 percent approval rating.But things quickly turned south for him, his leftist Workers Party and Brazil. His handpicked successor’s interventions into the economy helped plunge Brazil into a recession from which it has never fully recovered, and then a corruption investigation revealed a sprawling kickback scheme that had festered deep inside the Brazilian government under his party’s control.Mr. da Silva in 2018, when a prison sentence for corruption ended his last presidential campaign. His conviction was later overturned. Lalo de Almeida for The New York TimesNearly 300 people were eventually arrested in the scheme, including Mr. da Silva. He was sentenced to 22 years in prison on charges that he accepted a condo and home improvements from companies bidding on government contracts. But after 17 months, he was released and his convictions were later nullified after the Supreme Court ruled that the judge in his cases was biased. While Mr. da Silva was not cleared of wrongdoing, the decision allowed him to run for president again.Mr. Bolsonaro is a former Army captain who served three decades in Congress as a fringe far-right lawmaker known for extreme statements. In 2018, in the wake of Mr. da Silva’s prison sentence, Mr. Bolsonaro rode the global wave of right-wing populism to the presidency, promising to root out what he called the corruption of Brazil’s leftists.His four years since have been tumultuous. He has attacked judges, journalists, political rivals and environmentalists, while also publicly doubting the science behind Covid-19. He pushed unproven drugs during the pandemic and delayed in buying vaccines. The coronavirus killed nearly 700,000 people in Brazil, the second-highest official toll, after the United States.Yet despite the turmoil, Mr. Bolsonaro’s support has endured. He far outperformed polls’ expectations in the first round of voting on Oct. 2, and while recent polls have shown Mr. da Silva still in the lead, Mr. Bolsonaro was within striking distance.The president’s base is a bloc known as “beef, bibles and bullets,” representing people connected to the agribusiness industry, evangelical movement, and law enforcement and the military. Under a slogan of “God, homeland, family and freedom,” he has focused his pitch on warnings about the left trying to change what he calls Brazilians’ traditional way of life.Mr. Bolsonaro as a federal legislator in his office in 2017. Behind him are the portraits of Brazil’s leaders during the military dictatorship.Lalo de Almeida for The New York TimesIn his closing pitch to voters in the first presidential debate this month, Mr. Bolsonaro did not mention the economy, and instead accused the left of wanting to legalize drugs and abortion, abolish private property and force children to learn about “gender ideology” and use unisex bathrooms. “We don’t want a country of retrogression, corruption, thievery and disrespect for our religion,” he said.Mr. da Silva has built a broad coalition in recent months, from the center-right to the far left, with people concerned about what might happen under a second Bolsonaro term. But he has maintained Brazil’ working class as his base and built his platform around taxing the rich and expanding services for the poor. His stump speech has highlighted a promise that all Brazilians deserve a top cut of meat and a cold beer.“Let’s get back to fixing this country, and let’s get back to eating and drinking a beer at weekend barbecues,” he said. Mr. Bolsonaro “goes crazy because he thinks only he can, but we want to eat at the barbecues, too.”The campaign, however, has also had a more worrisome element. For more than a year, Mr. Bolsonaro has warned that he may not accept a loss. He has claimed, without credible evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting system is rife with fraud and that the left is set on rigging the vote. As a result, three out of four of his supporters say they trust the voting system only a little or not at all.Electoral Court inspectors packing up voting machines after testing them in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesOver the past week, Mr. Bolsonaro has also begun to claim other kinds of fraud. His campaign has accused radio stations of playing far more ads from Mr. da Silva, which would violate election laws, but the evidence the campaign produced was incomplete and quickly shown to be flawed. Brazil’s election chief, whom Mr. Bolsonaro has called biased, dismissed the accusations.Yet Mr. Bolsonaro’s son, a congressman, suggested this week that the vote should be delayed because of the alleged fraud, and Mr. Bolsonaro himself is complaining that it is more proof of an unfair election.“It’s fraud. It interferes with the results of the election,” Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters on Wednesday. “I am a victim once again.”André Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília. More

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      Millones de brasileños desconfían de las elecciones debido a Bolsonaro

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      Tres de cada cuatro partidarios del presidente de Brasil confían poco o nada en el sistema de votación. Muchos dijeron que estaban preocupados por un posible fraude y advirtieron estar preparados para protestar.DUQUE DE CAXIAS, Brasil — Para muchos simpatizantes del presidente Jair Bolsonaro, las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil que se realizarán el domingo solo pueden tener dos resultados posibles: celebrar o tomar las calles. Eso se debe, según dicen, a que una derrota de Bolsonaro solo puede significar que la votación fue manipulada.“Hay mucho fraude”, dijo Kátia de Lima, de 47 años, empleada de una tienda, en un mitin de Bolsonaro este mes. “Está comprobado”.En el mismo mitin que se realizó al norte de Río de Janeiro, Paulo Roberto, de 55 años, trabajador del gobierno, comentó: “Cualquiera que vote por Bolsonaro está preocupado por las máquinas de votación”.Y Fabrício Frieber, un abogado del estado de Bahía, agregó: “Bolsonaro nos viene advirtiendo”.En el transcurso de su presidencia, Bolsonaro ha cuestionado y criticado la seguridad del sistema de votación electrónica de Brasil, a pesar de la falta de evidencia creíble de que exista un problema en el mismo. Ahora, al final de su primer mandato, está claro que sus ataques han tenido un efecto: gran parte del electorado de Brasil ha perdido la fe en la integridad de las elecciones de su nación.Tres de cada cuatro partidarios de Bolsonaro confían poco o nada en el sistema de votación de Brasil, según varias encuestas de los últimos meses, incluida una realizada la semana pasada. Y en entrevistas con más de 40 de los partidarios de Bolsonaro en los últimos meses, casi todos dijeron que estaban preocupados por el fraude electoral y que estaban preparados para protestar si este pierde.Esas dudas han socavado una de las democracias más grandes del mundo y es probable que terminen por ser uno de los legados más perniciosos de Bolsonaro, parte de una tendencia mundial de mentiras y teorías de conspiración, a menudo alimentadas por líderes populistas y amplificadas por el internet, que están amenazando las normas democráticas en Estados Unidos y en todo el mundo.Los inspectores del tribunal electoral de Brasil prueban las máquinas de votación en São Paulo. Las máquinas no están conectadas a internet, lo que reduce significativamente la posibilidad de un ataque cibernético.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesAhora, el domingo, Brasil podría ver hasta dónde llegan esas dudas sobre sus elecciones.Las encuestas muestran que la contienda entre Bolsonaro, el actual presidente de extrema derecha, y Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, expresidente de izquierda, está reñida. Sin embargo, Bolsonaro ha insinuado que, si pierde, es posible que no acepte los resultados.“¿Elecciones que no puedes auditar? Eso no es una elección. Es fraude”, declaró Bolsonaro a los periodistas en julio, al mencionar un reclamo común sobre el sistema electoral de Brasil. “Entregaré el poder, en unas elecciones limpias”.Si Bolsonaro es derrotado y busca aferrarse al poder, parece que las instituciones democráticas de Brasil están preparadas para resistir. Pero también parece que algunos de sus seguidores están preparados para luchar.“Si nuestro presidente no es elegido, todos vamos a Brasilia”, dijo Rogério Ramos, de 40 años, dueño de una tienda de electrónica automotriz, refiriéndose a la capital del país. “Cerramos el Congreso, como en el 64”.En 1964, un golpe militar condujo a 21 años de una dictadura violenta en Brasil.Rogério Ramos en su coche autónomo con otros simpatizantes de Bolsonaro luego de un mitin en Río de Janeiro.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesMuchas de estas advertencias son probablemente comentarios improvisados y no planes organizados de violencia. Las autoridades del orden público no han advertido sobre ninguna amenaza por parte de alguno de los grupos en caso de que Bolsonaro sea derrotado.Pero el Supremo Tribunal Federal y el Tribunal Superior Electoral de Brasil aumentaron la seguridad, y el ejército se está preparando en caso de que haya descontento después de las elecciones, según dos altos oficiales militares que hablaron bajo condición de anonimato para comentar planes privados. El presidente o los tribunales podrían convocar a los militares para tratar de controlar a las multitudes violentas.Funcionarios gubernamentales, jueces, periodistas y gran parte de la ciudadanía brasileña están preocupados por un escenario similar al del 6 de enero de 2021, cuando miles de personas irrumpieron en el Capitolio de Estados Unidos, en un intento por anular los resultados de las elecciones después de que el expresidente Donald Trump negara repetidamente su derrota.Tanto Trump como Bolsonaro pasaron gran parte de sus gobiernos advirtiendo que el sistema estaba conspirando contra ellos. Trump criticó el “Estado profundo”, mientras que Bolsonaro acusó a algunos de los jueces que supervisan el Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil y al Tribunal Superior Electoral del país de intentar manipular las elecciones.Los seguidores de Bolsonaro enfocan su atención en una serie de aparentes anormalidades en el proceso de votación y los resultados, así como muchas teorías de conspiración.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesBolsonaro también ha cuestionado la seguridad de las máquinas de votación electrónica de Brasil desde 2015, luego de que un candidato presidencial de centroderecha disputó una estrecha derrota. Bolsonaro, por entonces diputado, comenzó una cruzada apoyada en la afirmación de que las máquinas de votación eran vulnerables al fraude porque no están respaldadas por boletas de papel.Bolsonaro tiene razón al decir que el sistema de votación de Brasil es singular. Es el único país del mundo que utiliza un sistema totalmente digital, sin copias de seguridad en papel.Los expertos en seguridad informática que estudian el sistema dicen que su diseño en efecto dificulta la auditoría de una elección. Pero también dicen que el sistema tiene numerosas capas de seguridad para evitar fraudes o errores, entre estas están los lectores de huellas dactilares, pruebas de cientos de máquinas el día de las elecciones, inspección del código fuente por parte de expertos externos y el hecho de que las máquinas no se conectan a la red de internet, lo que reduce significativamente las posibilidades de un hackeo.Desde que Brasil comenzó a usar máquinas de votación electrónica en 1996, no ha habido evidencia de que hayan sido utilizadas para fraude. En cambio, las máquinas ayudaron a eliminar el fraude que alguna vez afectó las elecciones de Brasil en la era de las boletas de papel.Pero esa realidad no le ha importado mucho a Bolsonaro ni a muchos de los más de 50 millones de brasileños que votaron por él en la primera ronda electoral. En entrevistas, los partidarios de Bolsonaro en cambio centraron su atención en una serie anecdótica de aparentes anomalías en el proceso y los resultados de la votación, así como en muchas teorías de conspiración: las máquinas roban votos de Bolsonaro; las máquinas vienen precargadas con votos; algunas máquinas son falsificaciones plantadas; los funcionarios manipulan los recuentos de votos; y los resultados de la votación muestran patrones sospechosos.En elecciones pasadas, los seguidores de Bolsonaro han ido a las casillas en busca de alguna irregularidad que grabar para compartir como mayor prueba de fraude.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesUn hombre entrevistado por The New York Times reprodujo un video que recibió a través de WhatsApp que decía que Bolsonaro había visitado Rusia este año para obtener la ayuda del presidente Vladimir Putin con el fin de luchar contra los planes de la izquierda brasileña de robar las elecciones del domingo.Al igual que en Estados Unidos y en otros lugares, las redes sociales han ayudado a polarizar a la población y han permitido que se difundan las dudas sobre las elecciones.La mayor parte del público brasileño solía reunirse alrededor de un solo canal de televisión, TV Globo. Ahora, los brasileños están dispersos en el interminable paisaje de medios de internet, a menudo en burbujas con personas de ideas afines que afianzan puntos de vista preexistentes, explicó Francisco Brito Cruz, director de InternetLab, un instituto de investigación en São Paulo.El público incluso se ha convertido en parte de los propios medios, al crear y compartir memes y videos, incluso sobre las máquinas de votación. En elecciones pasadas, los partidarios de Bolsonaro acudieron a las urnas en busca de alguna irregularidad que pudieran filmar y difundir como una prueba más del fraude.“Están en una misión imposible, tratando de encontrar dónde el trabajador electoral está manipulando las cosas, dónde están teniendo problemas”, dijo Brito Cruz. “Se han convencido a sí mismos, ¿no es cierto?”.La mayoría de los partidarios de Bolsonaro dijeron en entrevistas que no confían en los principales medios de comunicación, a los que Bolsonaro ha catalogado de deshonestos, y en cambio confían en noticias provenientes de una amplia variedad de fuentes en sus teléfonos, incluidas publicaciones en redes sociales y mensajes que reciben en grupos de WhatsApp y Telegram.“Miro las cosas que quiero ver y evito mirar lo que me quieren mostrar”, dijo José Luiz Chaves Fonseca, ingeniero de turbinas para plataformas petroleras en alta mar que este mes asistió disfrazado como Bolsonaro al mitin al norte de Río de Janeiro. “Si todos pensaran así, no serían engañados”.“Miro las cosas que quiero ver y evito mirar lo que me quieren mostrar”, dijo José Luiz Chaves Fonseca, quien acudió a un mitin caracterizado como Bolsonaro.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesMuchas de las dudas sobre el sistema electoral tienen sus raíces en hechos reales, pero se tergiversan y enmarcan como prueba de que algo anda mal. Da Silva, por ejemplo, fue condenado por cargos de corrupción, que luego fueron anulados, por lo que Bolsonaro y sus seguidores lo caracterizan como un ladrón preparado para robar el voto.En 2018, piratas informáticos se infiltraron en la red informática de la agencia electoral de Brasil, y Bolsonaro y sus partidarios citan con frecuencia ese incidente como prueba de fraude. “Si dicen que las máquinas son tan impenetrables, entonces ¿por qué alguien está en la cárcel por forzar una máquina de votación?”, preguntó Alessandra Stoll Ranzni, diseñadora de São Paulo, durante la versión brasileña de CPAC, la conferencia política conservadora, a principios de este año.Una investigación mostró que los piratas informáticos no podían acceder a las máquinas de votación ni cambiar los totales de los votos.No todos los partidarios de Bolsonaro son tan escépticos. Vinícius Ramos, de 32 años, trabajador del gobierno al norte de Río de Janeiro, refirió que cuenta con un título en seguridad de redes y que no pensaba igual que muchas de las personas que lo rodeaban en un mitin reciente.“El sistema de votación nacional brasileño es uno de los más seguros del mundo”, dijo. “El hecho de que vote por él no significa que esté de acuerdo con todo lo que dice”.André Spigariol More

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      Win or Lose, Bolsonaro Has Destroyed Trust in Brazil’s Elections

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      President Jair Bolsonaro has attacked Brazil’s electronic voting system. Now, ahead of Sunday’s elections, many of his supporters believe there will be fraud.DUQUE DE CAXIAS, Brazil — For many supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro, Sunday’s presidential election in Brazil can have just two possible outcomes: They celebrate or they take to the streets.That is because, they say, his defeat can only mean the vote was rigged.“There’s a lot of fraud,” said Kátia de Lima, 47, a store clerk at a rally for Mr. Bolsonaro this month. “It’s proven.”At the same rally north of Rio de Janeiro, Paulo Roberto, 55, a government worker, said, “Anyone who votes for Bolsonaro is worried about the voting machines.”And Fabrício Frieber, a lawyer from the state of Bahia, added, “Bolsonaro has been warning us.”Throughout his presidency, Mr. Bolsonaro has methodically questioned and criticized the security of Brazil’s electronic voting system, despite the lack of credible evidence of a problem. Now, at the end of his first term, it is clear that his attacks have had an effect: Much of Brazil’s electorate has lost faith in the integrity of their nation’s elections.Three out of four of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters trust Brazil’s voting system only a little or not at all, according to multiple polls over the past several months, including one last week. And in interviews with more than 40 of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters in recent months, nearly all said they were worried about election rigging and were prepared to protest if he loses.Those doubts have undermined one of the world’s largest democracies and are likely to end up as one of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most pernicious legacies — part of a global trend of lies and conspiracy theories, often stoked by populist leaders and amplified by the internet, that are threatening democratic norms in the United States and across the world.Inspectors from Brazil’s electoral court testing electronic voting machines in São Paulo. The machines are not connected to the internet, significantly reducing the chances of a hack.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesNow, on Sunday, Brazil could see how far those doubts about its elections go.Polls show that the race between Mr. Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former leftist president, is close. Yet Mr. Bolsonaro has suggested that, if he loses, he may not accept the results.“Elections that you can’t audit? That’s not an election. It’s fraud,” Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters in July, citing a common claim about Brazil’s election system. “I’ll hand over power — in a clean election.”If Mr. Bolsonaro is defeated and seeks to hold on to power, it appears that Brazil’s democratic institutions are prepared to resist. But it also appears that some of his supporters are prepared to fight.“If our president isn’t elected, everyone goes to Brasília,” said Rogério Ramos, 40, owner of an automotive electronics shop, referring to the nation’s capital. “We shut down Congress, just like in ’64.”In 1964, a military coup led to a violent, 21-year dictatorship in Brazil.Rogério Ramos in his self-driving car with other Bolsonaro supporters after a rally in Rio de Janeiro.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesMany such warnings are likely off-the-cuff comments, rather than organized plans for violence. Law-enforcement officials have not warned of any threat by groups in the event of Mr. Bolsonaro’s defeat.But Brazil’s Supreme Court and electoral court have increased security, and the military is preparing in case there is unrest after the election, according to two senior military officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private plans. The president or the courts could call on the military to try to control violent crowds.Government officials, judges, journalists and much of the Brazilian public are worried about a scenario that resembles Jan. 6, 2021, when thousands of people stormed the U.S. Capitol in a bid to overturn the election results after former President Donald J. Trump repeatedly denied his loss.Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Bolsonaro spent much of their administrations warning that the establishment was plotting against them. Mr. Trump railed against the “deep state,” while Mr. Bolsonaro has accused some of the judges who oversee Brazil’s Supreme Court and the country’s electoral court of trying to rig the election.Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters focus their attention on a series of anecdotal apparent abnormalities in the voting process and results, as well as many conspiracy theories.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro has also questioned the security of Brazil’s electronic voting machines since 2015, after a center-right presidential candidate disputed a narrow loss. Then a congressman, Mr. Bolsonaro began a crusade that the voting machines were vulnerable to fraud because they are not backed up by paper ballots..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.Mr. Bolsonaro is right that Brazil’s voting system is unique. It is the only country in the world to use a fully digital system, with no paper backups.Computer-security experts who study the system say its design indeed makes it difficult to audit an election. But they also say the system has numerous layers of security to prevent fraud or errors, including fingerprint readers, tests of hundreds of machines on Election Day, outside experts’ inspection of the source code and the fact that the machines do not connect to the internet, significantly reducing the chances of a hack.Since Brazil began using electronic voting machines in 1996, there has been no evidence that they have been used for fraud. Instead, the machines helped eliminate the fraud that once afflicted Brazil’s elections in the age of paper ballots.But those facts have not mattered much to Mr. Bolsonaro or many of the more than 50 million Brazilians who voted for him in the first election round. In interviews, Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters instead focused their attention on a series of anecdotal apparent abnormalities in the voting process and results, as well as many conspiracy theories: machines steal votes from Mr. Bolsonaro; machines come preloaded with votes; some machines are planted fakes; officials manipulate vote tallies; and the vote results show suspicious patterns.In past elections, Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have gone to the polls searching for some irregularity to film and spread as further evidence of fraud.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesOne man interviewed by The New York Times played a video he received on WhatsApp that said Mr. Bolsonaro had visited Russia this year to get President Vladimir V. Putin’s help in fighting the Brazilian left’s plans to steal Sunday’s election.As in the United States and elsewhere, social media has helped polarize the population and enabled widespread doubts about the elections.Most of the Brazilian public used to gather around a single television channel, TV Globo. Now, Brazilians are splintered across the endless media landscape of the internet, often in bubbles with like-minded people that entrench pre-existing views, said Francisco Brito Cruz, director of the InternetLab, a research institute in São Paulo.The public itself has even become part of the media, creating and sharing memes and videos, including about the voting machines. In past elections, Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have gone to the polls searching for some irregularity to film and spread as further evidence of fraud.“They’re on a wild good chase, trying to find where the poll worker is manipulating things, where they’re having problems,” Mr. Brito Cruz said. “They have convinced themselves, right?”Most of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters said in interviews that they do not trust mainstream news outlets, which Mr. Bolsonaro has attacked as dishonest, and instead rely on news from a wide variety of sources on their phones, including social-media posts and messages they receive in groups on WhatsApp and Telegram.“I look at the things I want to see, and I avoid looking at what they want to show me,” said José Luiz Chaves Fonseca, a turbine engineer for offshore oil platforms who was attending the rally this month north of Rio de Janeiro as a Bolsonaro impersonator. “If everyone thought like this, they wouldn’t be tricked.”“I look at the things I want to see, and I avoid looking at what they want to show me,” said José Luiz Chaves Fonseca, center, who was attending a rally as a Bolsonaro impersonator.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesMany of the doubts about the election system are rooted in real events, but are twisted and framed as proof of something amiss. Mr. da Silva, for instance, was convicted of corruption charges, which were later nullified, so Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters characterize him as a thief prepared to steal the vote.Hackers infiltrated the computer network of Brazil’s election agency in 2018, and Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters frequently cite the incident as proof of fraud. “If they say that the machines are so impenetrable, then why is someone in prison for breaking into a voting machine?” Alessandra Stoll Ranzni, a designer from São Paulo, said at the Brazilian version of CPAC, the conservative political conference, earlier this year.An investigation showed the hackers were not able to gain access to voting machines or change vote totals.Not all of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters are so skeptical. Vinícius Ramos, 32, a government worker north of Rio de Janeiro, said that he received a degree in a network security and felt differently than many of the people around him at a recent rally.“The Brazilian national voting system is one of the safest in the world,” he said. “Just because I vote for him doesn’t mean that I agree with everything he says.”André Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília, and María Magdalena Arréllaga from Duque de Caxias, Brazil. More