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      In Colombia, a Leftist and a Right-Wing Populist Head for June Runoff

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      The results in the first round of voting delivered a stunning blow to Colombia’s dominant conservative political class.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Two anti-establishment candidates, Gustavo Petro, a leftist, and Rodolfo Hernández, a right-wing populist, captured the top two spots in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday, delivering a stunning blow to Colombia’s dominant conservative political class.The two men will compete in a runoff election on June 19 that is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in the country’s history. At stake is the country’s economic model, its democratic integrity and the livelihoods of millions of people pushed into poverty during the pandemic.With more than 99 percent of the ballots counted on Sunday evening, Mr. Petro received more than 40 percent of the vote, while Mr. Hernández received just over 28 percent. Mr. Hernández beat by more than four percentage points the conservative establishment candidate, Federico Gutiérrez, who had been polling in second place.Mr. Hernández’s unexpected second-place victory shows a nation hungry to elect anyone who is not represented by the country’s mainstream conservative leaders. The Petro-Hernández face-off, said Daniel García-Peña, a Colombian political scientist, pits “change against change.”For months, polls have shown Mr. Petro, who is proposing an overhaul of the country’s capitalist economic model, leading against a conservative former mayor, Federico Gutiérrez.It was only recently that Mr. Hernández, running on a populist, anti-corruption platform, had begun rising in the polls.Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez celebrating in Bogotá on Sunday night. Federico Rios for The New York TimesIf Mr. Petro ultimately wins in the next round of voting, it would mark a watershed moment for one of the most politically conservative societies in Latin America, and it would set Colombia on an uncharted path.In his postelection speech at a hotel near the center of Bogotá, Mr. Petro stood beside his vice-presidential pick and said Sunday’s results showed that the political project of the current president and his allies “has been defeated.”He then quickly issued warnings about Mr. Hernández, painting a vote for him as a dangerous regression, and daring the electorate to take a chance on what he called a progressive project, “a true change.”Mr. Petro’s rise reflects not just a leftist shift across Latin America, but also an anti-incumbent fervor that has gained strength as the pandemic has deepened poverty and inequality, intensifying feelings that the region’s economies are built mostly to serve the elite.That same anti-incumbent sentiment appeared to give Mr. Hernández a late lift into the runoff, and pointed to the waning power of Uribismo, a hard-line conservatism that has dominated politics in Colombia for the last two decades, named for its founder, former president Álvaro Uribe.At polling stations around the country on Sunday, supporters of Mr. Petro spoke to that frustration, and to a renewed sense of hope.“This is a historic moment for Colombia, we don’t want more continuity,” said Chiro Castellanos, 37, a Petro supporter in Sincelejo, a city near the Caribbean coast. “This marks a change, it’s a countrywide project that is not just about Gustavo Petro.”But in many places there was also fear of what that change might look like, and calls for a more moderate approach.“This country is in trouble,” said Myriam Matallana, 55, a supporter of Mr. Gutiérrez, in Bogotá, the capital. But with Mr. Petro, “it would be worse.”Rodolfo Hernández after voting in Bucaramanga, Colombia, on Sunday.ReutersMr. Petro has vowed to transform Colombia’s economic system, which he says fuels inequality, by expanding social programs, halting oil exploration and shifting the country’s focus to domestic agriculture and industry.Colombia has long been the United States’ strongest ally in the region, and a win for Mr. Petro could set up a clash with Washington. The candidate has called for a reset of the bilateral relationship, including changes to the approach to the drug war and a re-examination of a trade agreement.The election comes as surveys show growing distrust in most of the country’s institutions, including congress, political parties, the police, the military, the press and the national registrar, a key electoral body.It also comes amid rising violence that included a stay-at-home order issued by a criminal group earlier this month that paralyzed a sizable part of the nation for at least four days.Ahead of the election, there was widespread concern that these factors would stifle the democratic process.The election comes as surveys show growing distrust in most of the country’s institutions, including congress, political parties, the police, the military, the press and the national registrar, a key electoral body.Federico Rios for The New York Times“If we stay at home and say, ‘Everyone is corrupt,’ we’re not going to accomplish anything,” said María Gañan, 27, who voted for Mr. Hernández in Bogotá. “We want to change the history of the country.”Mr. Hernández, who was relatively unknown before until just a few weeks ago, branded himself as an anti-corruption candidate, and has proposed rewarding citizens for reporting corruption, appointing Colombians already living abroad to diplomatic positions, which he says will yield savings on travel and other expenses, and banning unnecessary parties at embassies.“Today the country of politicking and corruption lost,” Mr. Hernández wrote in a Facebook message to his supporters following Sunday’s results.“Today, the gangs who thought that they could govern forever have lost,” he added.But some of Mr. Hernández’s proposals have been criticized as undemocratic.Specifically, he’s proposed declaring a state of emergency for 90 days and suspending all judicial and administrative functions in order to address corruption, leading to fears that he could shut down Congress or suspend mayors.Election Day in Suarez, north of Cauca, in Colombia.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMany voters are fed up with rising prices, high unemployment, low wages, rising education costs and surging violence, and polls show that a clear majority of Colombians have an unfavorable view of current conservative administration.Candidates pushing change have been killed on the campaign trail in Colombia before. Mr. Petro and his running mate, Francia Márquez, have both received death threats, prompting increased security, including bodyguards holding riot shields.Yet the election was also marked by a broadening of the political tent.In a matter of months, Ms. Márquez, an environmental activist who would be the country’s first Black vice president if she won, has morphed into a national phenomenon, infusing the election with a gender, race and class-conscious focus like few other candidates in the country’s history.Her popularity has been viewed overwhelmingly as a reflection of a deep desire by many voters — Black, Indigenous, poor, rural — to see themselves in the highest halls of power.On Sunday, she could have voted in the capital. Instead, she chose to travel to the southwestern department of Cauca, where she grew up.Francia Márquez, the left’s vice-presidential candidate, voting in her hometown Suarez, North of Cauca, in Colombia. Federico Rios for The New York Times“Today we are splitting the country’s history in two,” she said on Sunday, shortly after casting her ballot. “Today, one of the nobodies, the historically excluded, is standing up to occupy a place in politics.”Reporting was contributed by Sofía Villamil, Megan Janetsky and Genevieve Glatsky in Bogotá, and by Federico Rios in Suarez, Cauca. More

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      in World Politics

      Colombia Faces Historic Presidential Elections

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      The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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      Uvalde, Texas

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      Tiroteo en una primaria, Colombia va a las urnas y otras noticias para el fin de semana.A la maestra Irma Garcia la hallaron sin vida abrazando a sus alumnos de cuarto grado. Garcia es una de las 21 personas que perdieron la vida esta semana a manos de un hombre armado que entró a la escuela primaria Robb en Uvalde, Texas, y disparó.Su colega Eva Mireles también murió ese día, así como 19 niños y niñas. Algunos se llamaban Alexandria, Amerie Jo, Annabelle, Eliahna, Ellie, Jackie, Jayce, Jose, Jailah, Layla, , Makenna, Nevaeh, Rojelio, Tess, Uziyah y Xavier. Algunos habían recibido su diploma del cuadro de honor ese mismo día. Todos se preparaban para sus vacaciones de verano. Eran deportistas entusiastas, hermanos cariñosos, niñitos amados por sus familias. Y ahora van a ser extrañados y recordados.El del martes fue el tiroteo masivo más mortífero registrado en Estados Unidos en lo que va del año. Hasta ahora, según la organización sin fines de lucro The Gun Violence Archive, en el país ha habido más de 213 tiroteos y en 10 de ellos la cifra de víctimas mortales ha sido de cuatro personas o más.Xavier Lopez, de 10 añosChristopher Lee para The New York TimesSi para los adultos resulta incomprensible y angustiante conocer la noticia del tiroteo y procesar la magnitud del problema, para los chicos puede ser aún más difícil de procesar. Tenemos una guía con consejos de expertos para abordar el tema con los menores según su edad y ayudar a tranquilizarlos.En Uvalde, una comunidad rural y mayoritariamente hispana donde prácticamente todos se conocen y muchos están emparentados, reparar la fractura va a ser muy difícil.Mientras ellos viven el duelo, a 450 kilómetros de ahí, en Houston, arranca hoy la reunión anual de la Asociación Nacional del Rifle, un poderoso grupo de interés. Se esperaba que acudieran al evento el expresidente Donald Trump y el senador Ted Cruz. Después de la tragedia, Cruz propuso poner guardias armados en las escuelas.Sin embargo, según distintos analistas, más armas no parecen ser la solución. Varios estudios indican que “el índice de propiedad de armas de un país se correlaciona con las probabilidades de que suceda un tiroteo masivo”.No hay forma de estar todos seguros ni de eliminar completamente el riesgo de que estas tragedias se repitan. Como advertía Max Fisher en una columna reciente, “cada tiroteo masivo es un evento aislado, motivado por factores únicos, como la ideología o las circunstancias personales del atacante”.Sin embargo, Max explica que es posible reducir el riesgo y prevenir las masacres.Australia, Canadá, Noruega, Nueva Zelanda y el Reino Unido, por ejemplo, contaban con una arraigada cultura de tenencia de armas pero modificaron sus leyes después de sufrir tiroteos similares y sus estadísticas de violencia ahora son mucho menores.¿Es posible exportar estas experiencias al panorama estadounidense? La pregunta es urgente.“Lo cierto es que no vamos a prohibir las armas en Estados Unidos”, escribía Nicholas Kristof en un ensayo de Opinión reciente, “como no vamos a prohibir el alcohol, las motocicletas, los cuchillos de caza, los cigarrillos u otros productos que pueden ser mortales”. Pero, argumenta, hay algunas medidas prácticas que pueden implementarse evadiendo la politización y la ideología. Vale la pena leerlas y discutirlas.Es difícil contemplar el debate con la cabeza fría cuando tantas familias sufren. También es difícil sentirse útil. Aquí hay algunos modos de ayudar a los dolientes. También queda, sin el cinismo del cliché o los políticos que se lavan las manos, ofrecer pensamientos y oraciones.Si alguien te reenvió este correo, puedes hacer clic aquí para recibirlo tres veces por semana.Colombia, a las urnasUn mitin de campaña en Cartagena, Colombia, el 14 de mayoFederico Rios para The New York TimesEste domingo se celebran elecciones presidenciales en Colombia. Es la primera vez que votará la llamada “generación del paro”, los jóvenes que en los últimos años han salido a las calles, inconformes por la desigualdad y la falta de oportunidades.En una nota reciente sobre el ascenso de Gustavo Petro en las encuestas, nuestra colega Julie Turkewitz escribe:En la actualidad casi nueve millones de votantes colombianos tienen 28 años o menos, la mayor cantidad en la historia; son una cuarta parte del electorado. Están inquietos: crecieron con la promesa de la educación universitaria y buenos empleos y se ven decepcionados ante el panorama actual, también están más conectados al mundo digital y posiblemente más empoderados que cualquier generación previa.¿Qué anhelan nuestros lectores de Colombia para su país? Los invitamos a compartir sus expectativas con nuestra comunidad.Por cierto, los colombianos en el exterior ya empezaron a votar hace varios días. Son casi un millón de electores elegibles residenciados fuera del país. ¿Eres uno de ellos? Nos gustaría conocer tu experiencia; participa en los comentarios.Que descanses este fin de semana. Si te gustó este boletín, compártelo con tus amigos, colegas y seres queridos (y no tan queridos). Y por favor, cuéntanos qué te parece. More

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      Colombia Election: Angry, Mobilized and Voting for Gustavo Petro

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      A large and loud youth electorate hungry to transform one of Latin America’s most unequal societies could propel Gustavo Petro, a former rebel, to the presidency.May 26, 2022FUSAGASUGÁ, Colombia — The man onstage surrounded by a screaming, sweating, fawning crowd seemed like an odd choice for a youth icon. Gustavo Petro is gray-haired, 62, and, in his speeches, he’s more roaring preacher than conversational TikTok star.But after an improbable rise from clandestine rebel to Bogotá mayor and bullish face of the Colombian opposition, Mr. Petro could soon become the country’s first leftist president, a watershed moment for one of the most politically conservative societies in Latin America.And his ascent has, in no small part, been propelled by the biggest, loudest and possibly angriest youth electorate in Colombia’s history, demanding the transformation of a country long cleaved by deep social and racial inequality.There are now nearly nine million Colombian voters 28 or younger, the most in history, and a quarter of the electorate. They are restive, raised on promises of higher education and good jobs, disillusioned by current prospects, more digitally connected and arguably more empowered than any previous generation.“Petro is change,” said Camila Riveros, 30, wrapped in a Colombian flag at a campaign event this month outside Bogotá, the capital. “People are tired of eating dirt.”Gustavo Petro this month in Santa Marta. He has held a steady lead in most polls, though he may not have enough support to avoid a runoff. As Colombians prepare to vote on Sunday, Mr. Petro has promised to overhaul the country’s capitalist economic model and vastly expand social programs, pledging to introduce guaranteed work with a basic income, shift the country to a publicly controlled health system and increase access to higher education, in part by raising taxes on the rich.Mr. Petro has been ahead in the polls for months — though surveys suggest he will face a runoff in June — and his popularity reflects both leftist gains across Latin America and an anti-incumbent fervor that has intensified as the pandemic has battered the region.“We have a decision to make,” Mr. Petro said at another campaign event this month in the Caribbean city of Cartagena. “We maintain things the way they are, or we scream: Freedom!”But critics say Mr. Petro is ill-suited for office, arguing that his policies, which include a plan to halt all new oil exploration in a country where fuel is a critical export, would ruin the economy.He has also taken direct swings at the country’s major institutions — most notably the armed forces — escalating tensions with military leaders and leading to concerns about the stability of Colombia’s longstanding but vulnerable democracy.Mr. Petro’s main opponent, Federico Gutiérrez, 47, a former mayor of Medellín, the country’s second largest city, and the candidate of the conservative establishment, proposes a more modest path forward.“Of course we need to change many things,” he said in an interview, citing a plan that would ramp up fracking for oil, steer more money to local governments and create a special unit to fight urban crime. “But changes can never mean a leap into the void without a parachute.”A third candidate, Rodolfo Hernández, 77, a former mayor with a populist, anti-corruption platform has been climbing in the polls.Mr. Petro’s main opponent, Federico Gutiérrez, is a former mayor of Medellín, the country’s second largest city, and the candidate of the conservative establishment.The election comes at a difficult moment for the country. Polls show widespread dissatisfaction with the government of the current president, Iván Duque, who is backed by the same political coalition as Mr. Gutiérrez, and frustration over chronic poverty, a widening income gap and insecurity, all of which have worsened during the pandemic.Among those hurt the most by these problems are younger Colombians, who are likely to play a big role in determining whether the country takes a major lurch to the left.Young people led anti-government protests that filled the streets of Colombia last year, dominating the national conversation for weeks. At least 46 people died — many of them young, unarmed protesters and many at the hands of the police — in what became referred to as the “national strike.”Some analysts expect young people to vote in record numbers, energized not just by Mr. Petro, but by his running mate, Francia Márquez, 40, an environmental activist with a gender, race and class-conscious focus who would be the country’s first Black vice president.“The TikTok generation that is very connected to Francia, that is very connected to Petro, is going to be decisive,” said Fernando Posada, 30, a political analyst.Some analysts expect young people to vote in record numbers, energized not just by Mr. Petro but by his running mate, Francia Márquez, an environmental activist.Today’s younger generation is the most educated in Colombian history, but is also grappling with 10 percent annual inflation, a 20 percent youth unemployment rate and a 40 percent poverty rate. Many — both supporters and critics of Mr. Petro — say they feel betrayed by decades of leaders who have promised opportunity but delivered little.In a May poll by the firm Invamer, more than 53 percent of voters ages 18 to 24 and about 45 percent of voters ages 25 to 34 said they were planning to vote for Mr. Petro. In both age categories, less than half those numbers said they would vote for Mr. Gutierrez or Mr. Hernández.Natalia Arévalo, 30, a single mother of three, marched for days during protests last year, with her daughter, Lizeth, 10, wearing a placard around her neck that read: “What awaits us children?”“You have to choose between paying your debts and feeding your kids,” said Ms. Arévalo, who supports Mr. Petro.“You can’t eat eggs, you can’t eat meat, you can’t eat anything,” she added. “We have to give a 180-degree turn to all that we’ve had for the last 20 years.”José Fernando Mazo, a law student, waving in the crowd at a rally for Mr. Petro in Cartagena on May 14.To be sure, many young voters are skeptical of Mr. Petro’s ability to deliver on his promises.In Fusagasugá, Nina Cruz, 27, a cafe worker, said Mr. Petro would fail Colombia’s struggling families, and she was particularly repulsed by his past as a member of a leftist rebel group.The country has a long history of violent militias that claim to help the indigent — and end up terrorizing them.“What he is saying is: ‘I’m going to help the poor,’” she said. “That’s a total lie.”Mr. Petro, an economist, grew up outside Bogotá. As a teenager, he joined the M-19, a leftist urban militia that sought to seize power and claimed to promote social justice.The group was never as large or as violent as the country’s main guerrilla force, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But in 1985, the M-19 occupied a national judicial building, sparking a battle with the police and the military that left 94 people dead.Mr. Petro, who did not participate in the takeover, ended up in prison for his involvement with the group.He eventually demobilized and ran for a senate seat, emerging as the combative face of the left, pushing open conversations about corruption and wrongdoing.Some critics have warned that Mr. Petro’s energy proposals would bankrupt the country. Oil represents 40 percent of Colombia’s exports and Juan Carlos Echeverry, a former finance minister, has said that halting oil exploration “would be economic suicide.’’Ballistic shields on stage during Mr. Petro’s appearance in Cartagena. He has been the recent target of death threats. Mr. Petro also has a reputation for an authoritarian streak. As mayor of Bogotá, he circumvented the City Council and often failed to listen to advisers, said Daniel Garcia-Peña, who worked with Mr. Petro for a decade before quitting in 2012. In his resignation letter Mr. Garcia-Peña called Mr. Petro “a despot.”The election comes as polls show growing distrust in the country’s democratic institutions, including the country’s national registrar, an election body that bungled the initial vote count in a congressional election in March.The error, which the registrar called procedural, has led to concerns that losing candidates will declare fraud, setting off a legitimacy crisis.The country is also being roiled by rising violence, threatening to undermine the democratic process. The Mission for Electoral Observation, a local group, called this pre-election period the most violent in 12 years.Candidates pushing change have been murdered on the campaign trail before.Both Mr. Petro and Ms. Márquez have received death threats, and at his campaign event in Cartagena, he took the stage flanked by men holding bulletproof shields.Young supporters of Mr. Petro at a rally in Cartagena on May 14. A recent poll found that Mr. Petro was the leading candidate among voters 18 to 34.Some voters held signs that read “Black children’s lives matter,” and “if it’s not Petro, we’re screwed.”There was excitement — but also trepidation.“What we want are opportunities for everyone,” said Lauren Jiménez, 21, a university student.But “if Petro can’t follow through, I know we will see the same thing that happened with the Duque government: a social explosion,” she warned. “Because we’re tired of staying quiet.”Sofía Villamil More

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      in World Politics

      Will Colombia Vote for its First Ever Left-Wing President?

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      The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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      Elecciones en Colombia: cómo votan los colombianos en el exterior

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      Desde el domingo, hora colombiana, los votantes elegibles alrededor del mundo están acudiendo a las urnas para participar en los comicios presidenciales.Los colombianos que residen fuera del país han empezado este lunes a emitir sus votos en las elecciones presidenciales. Según la autoridad nacional, hay más de 972.000 votantes elegibles para participar en las mesas de votación ubicadas en el extranjero.La elección presidencial se llevará a cabo en el territorio nacional de Colombia el domingo, pero las urnas ya abrieron en embajadas, consulados y otras oficinas en 67 países alrededor del mundo y permanecerán abiertas hasta el cierre de la jornada electoral.Los colombianos en el exterior, una diáspora de alrededor de 5 millones de personas, representan más del 10 por ciento de la población del país y viven principalmente en Estados Unidos, España y Venezuela.Un escaño de la Cámara de Representantes de Colombia está asignado a la diáspora a través de la circunscripción internacional. En las últimas elecciones legislativas, celebradas en marzo, la ganadora a la cámara baja fue Carmen “Karmen” Felisa Ramírez, una mujer de la etnia wayuu que ha vivido en Suiza por más de una década. Ramírez fue la candidata de la coalición de Gustavo Petro y derrotó al candidato del uribismo que buscaba reelegirse.Los votantes colombianos que residen en el extranjero tienen hasta el 29 de mayo para participar en las elecciones presidenciales si se inscribieron para hacerlo antes del 29 de marzo. Pueden ubicar su lugar de votación en el sitio de la registraduría. Solo podrán emitir el voto con la cédula de ciudadanía; no se acepta el pasaporte ni otro tipo de documento de identificación. More

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      Colombia Takes First Step in Joining Latin America’s Left Turn

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      Colombia, Latin America‘s third most populous country, held congressional and presidential primary elections on March 13. Citizens had a chance to vote for candidates to be elected to the two houses of Congress and in primary elections for presidential candidates of three political coalitions from the political left, center and right.

      The elections have provided a crucial first indication of which direction Colombia is heading ahead of the presidential elections in May and June. According to preliminary results, Colombia remains with a highly fragmented Congress; none of the parties has achieved more than 16%. Yet the results are historic. The big winner of the elections is the Pacto Historico, a group of several left-of-center parties campaigning on a platform of social equality. The group won 19 out of 108 seats in the Senate and 28 out of 172 in the House of Representatives, up from nine and seven in 2018.

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      Other parties performing well were Colombia‘s traditional liberal and conservative parties, which had lost influence in recent years after dominating the country until 1991 when a new constitution opened the political space for other political contenders.

      In Colombia, which many observers consider one of Latin America‘s most conservative societies, left-leaning politics never managed to gain much ground. Therefore, the results indicate a potentially historic shift since a party with a distinct leftist platform and identity performed strongest for the first time. 

      The Electoral Prospects of Gustavo Petro

      The results emphasize the chances of Gustavo Petro, the leader of the Pacto Historico, to become Colombia‘s next president since he won the group’s primary elections with 80.5%. Over the last two years, Petro has been the consistent front runner in all presidential election polls. He was a member of the urban revolutionary guerilla group M-19, which demobilized in the early 1990s, and later became a senator and mayor of Bogota, Colombia‘s capital, from 2012 to 2015. In 2018, Petro was a presidential candidate but lost in the second round to Ivan Duque from the right-wing Democratic Center party.

      Embed from Getty Images

      However, the recent results and Pacto Historico’s strong performance show that a win of the left is more likely this time. Many Colombians feel it is time for political change after decades of right-leaning governments. Two waves of nationwide protests swept the country in 2019 and 2021, demanding, amongst others, wide-reaching social and economic reforms and intensified state protection against the killings of social activists. In the climate of national outrage, a president from the left suddenly seems not so out of place anymore. 

      While no one doubts that Petro will gain sufficient votes to reach the second round of presidential elections, the recent results show that he will need to convince Colombians from the center to vote for him too. Petro has already indicated after the election his move toward the center, claiming to “invite all the democratic forces that are not yet in the Pacto … we must give way to a large, broad and democratic front.”

      The primary elections have also revealed Petro’s contenders. Although some presidential candidates decided to remain outside of the primaries, Petro’s key rivals will be the winners of the rightist and, to a lesser extent, of the centrist primary elections. Both centrist Sergio Fajardo and right-leaning Federico “Fico” Gutierrez have been mayors of Medellin, Colombia‘s second-largest city in the past. While Fajardo draws support from the wealthy and well-educated urban middle and upper classes, Gutierrez relies on the votes from Colombia‘s large conservative sectors and its stronghold, the department of Antioquia.

      The End of Uribism?

      The elections also showed that the influence of Uribismo, a right-wing populist political movement named after Alvaro Uribe, Colombia‘s president from 2002 to 2010, is vanishing. Uribe’s presidency was most known for the military regaining ground against several leftist guerrilla groups and alliances between state and right-wing paramilitary forces resulting in severe human rights violations. Uribe was for the last decade seen as the most influential politician in Colombia, leading a campaign against the 2016 peace agreement between the government and the FARC guerrilla group, and a key mentor of President Duque.

      Uribe himself, who in 2018 received most votes of any elected senator, did not run again amidst a judicial process against him for bribing witnesses and procedural fraud. The political party associated with the movement, the Democratic Center, which in the previous Congress was the strongest, came fourth in the recent elections. The party suffered from the notorious unpopularity of the Duque administration, which has disapproval ratings of over 75%. “I am the main person responsible [for the loss of seats] due to my damage to [the party’s] reputation,” Uribe declared last week. 

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      The party’s presidential candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, who did not participate in the primary elections of the rightist coalition, has halted his campaign and is supporting Gutierrez instead.

      A Similar Trend Across Latin America

      Should Colombia vote for Petro, the result would confirm recent trends across Latin America. Since 2018, leftist presidential candidates have won elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, Panama and Peru. Likewise, current polls for Brazil’s elections in October this year predict a landslide win of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former president from the Workers’ Party, over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

      Over the following weeks, campaigning will become more intensified. In the highly polarized country, many participants in large-scale protests during recent years feel that with Petro, a politician addressing their needs could potentially assume power for the first time. Should their hopes amount to nothing and Colombia remain with a right-wing government, a reemergence of mass-scale protests is likely, which in the past resulted in severe police brutality and human rights violations. With the probable outcomes being Colombia‘s first leftist government or nationwide protests, the country faces some truly historic elections ahead.

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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      Ingrid Betancourt se postula a la presidencia de Colombia

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      El anuncio de su candidatura llega en un momento crítico: los colombianos están hartos de la clase política y el futuro del acuerdo de paz está en riesgo.BOGOTÁ — Ingrid Betancourt, excongresista y quien fue mantenida como rehén por la guerrilla y llegó a simbolizar tanto la brutalidad del largo conflicto en Colombia como de los esfuerzos de reconciliación del país, se postulará a la presidencia, dijo el martes.Betancourt entra en una campaña presidencial muy abierta en un momento en el que Colombia está en una determinante encrucijada política y social.Cuando fue secuestrada hace 20 años, Betancourt estaba haciendo campaña para el mismo cargo. Ahora, dijo, el país se enfrenta al mismo “sistema corrupto” y “maquinarias politiqueras” que ella combatió entonces.“Hoy estoy aquí para terminar lo que empecé”, dijo en un estrado en un hotel del centro de Bogotá, la capital del país, acompañada por sus aliados.Betancourt, quien fue capturada en 2002 y retenida durante más de seis años por la mayor fuerza guerrillera del país, las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, anunció su candidatura a las elecciones de mayo mientras el país enfrenta enormes desafíos.Tras más de 50 años de guerra, el gobierno y el grupo rebelde, conocido como las Farc, firmaron un acuerdo de paz en 2016. Pero, desde entonces, una oleada de otros grupos armados ha irrumpido en el vacío y seguido combatiendo.La violencia ha aumentado en algunas zonas rurales y los críticos han culpado al gobierno por no invertir lo suficiente para abordar la desigualdad y la pobreza que han contribuido a impusar la guerra, como se había comprometido a hacer en el acuerdo de paz.Muchos colombianos están hartos del statu quo político, un sentimiento que estalló en la esfera pública en mayo del año pasado, cuando miles de personas salieron a las calles durante más de un mes para protestar por las penurias que solo empeoraron con la pandemia.Tras sus años de cautiverio —en los que a veces estuvo encadenada— Betancourt ha apoyado el proceso de paz y también ha criticado a las Farc, convirtiéndose en un símbolo de los intentos nacionales de reconocer los costos de la guerra, pero también de superarla.Sergio Guzmán, un analista de Bogotá, llamó a Betancourt la “candidata de la reconciliación” del país.En una entrevista con el Times el año pasado, Betancourt calificó el acuerdo de paz como “una ventana, una oportunidad generacional, de salir de la locura violenta en la cual hemos vivido toda nuestra vida”.La cuestión, dijo Guzmán, es si eso es lo que quieren los colombianos.“Todas nuestras elecciones han sido miedo, esperanza y odio”, continuó. “Ninguna elección se ha disputado sobre la base de la compasión y la reconciliación”.Hay un descontento generalizado con el actual presidente, Iván Duque, quien es un producto del poder político tradicional de derecha del país, mientras que un populista de izquierda, Gustavo Petro, lidera las encuestas en medio de una ola izquierdista y opuesta a quienes están en el poder que se extiende por América Latina.“¿Puede Ingrid convertirse en un bálsamo para esas emociones negativas predominantes que estamos sintiendo en este momento?”, dijo Guzmán. “No lo sé. Esa es una de las cosas que nos va a decir su candidatura”.Pero para ganar impulso entre los votantes, dijo, “tiene que vender la idea de que la reconciliación es mejor que el populismo”.Aunque Betancourt es ampliamente conocida en todo el país, una victoria en mayo no es ni mucho menos segura.Para llegar a las elecciones de mayo, Betancourt tendría que ganar las primarias de marzo, en las que competiría con otros candidatos de centroNathalia Angarita para The New York TimesEn este momento hay más de 20 aspirantes a la presidencia, y la mayoría de los más conocidos se agrupan en tres coaliciones: una de izquierda, encabezada por Petro; una de centro, a la que se une Betancourt; y una de derecha, cuyos miembros se consideran los abanderados del gobierno actual.Para llegar a las elecciones de mayo, Betancourt tendría que ganar las primarias de marzo, en las que competiría con otros candidatos de centro, como Alejandro Gaviria, exministro de Salud y hasta hace poco rector de una prestigiosa universidad.Guzmán señaló que Betancourt se incorporó a la campaña tarde en el calendario electoral y calificó su candidatura como “una medida desesperada”.Colombia nunca ha tenido una mujer en la presidencia, y Betancourt es una de las cuatro candidatas de las tres principales coaliciones.La candidata más destacada hasta el momento ha sido Francia Márquez, una joven política afrocolombiana y activista medioambiental que también es víctima de la guerra.Márquez, quien se ha unido a la coalición de la izquierda, se ha distinguido no solo por su identidad —la política colombiana ha estado dominada por hombres blancos y ricos—, sino por su franca adhesión a la política feminista y su disposición a criticar a Petro.Betancourt es hija de una política y de un político y diplomático colombianos, y posteriormente obtuvo la nacionalidad francesa a través de su primer marido.En 2002, tras su paso por el Congreso, Betancourt se lanzó a la campaña presidencial como integrante del Partido Verde Oxígeno, un movimiento político joven de filosofía pacifista, ecologista y anticorrupción. El 23 de febrero de 2002, cuando se dirigía a un acto de campaña en la ciudad de San Vicente del Caguán, fue detenida en un control de carretera y tomada como rehén por las Farc.Durante sus años de cautiverio en la selva, fue tratada brutalmente e intentó escapar en repetidas ocasiones, experiencias que relató en su libro No hay silencio que no termine.Fue rescatada por el gobierno colombiano y, con los años, se ha convertido en la víctima más conocida del país. Pero también ha sido objeto de críticas: de quienes dicen que ha restado atención a víctimas más pobres y menos conocidas, y de otros que la han criticado por pedir una indemnización al gobierno colombiano tras su cautiverio y rescate.Betancourt vive desde hace años en Francia y regresó a Colombia hace apenas unos meses. En su discurso de campaña, se refirió directamente a las críticas de que el traslado estaba diseñado para obtener un beneficio político personal.“He vuelto en busca del mayor beneficio político”, dijo, “que todos tengamos una verdadera democracia”.El anuncio de su campaña no dice mucho sobre sus propuestas políticas, más allá de las repetidas promesas de luchar contra la corrupción y de abordar el impacto de la violencia en el país.“Mi historia es la historia de todos los colombianos”, dijo.En un país de más de 50 millones de habitantes, nueve millones están registrados en el gobierno como víctimas del conflicto.“Mientras las Farc nos esclavizaba a mí y a mis compañeros, los cárteles de la droga, los violentos y los políticos corruptos han estado esclavizando a cada uno de ustedes”, continuó.“Vamos a salir de esta cultura mafiosa, mentirosa, violenta y vamos a aprender de nuevo a ser ciudadanos libres”.Sofía Villamil More