Content Type: Service

Subterms

    More stories

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      More Tenants Can Now Add Rent Payments to Their Credit Score

      by

      Policymakers view the reporting of an on-time pattern as a way to reduce disparities in homeownership.About a third of American households rent, yet in most cases their credit score doesn’t reflect their on-time payments.That’s beginning to change. Renters can increasingly choose to have their timely monthly payments reported to the credit bureaus, with the goal of improving their credit profile to qualify for loans.A bevy of third-party services now offer consumers the option of having their on-time rent payments reported to one or more credit bureaus. The bureaus — Equifax, Experian and TransUnion — can add rent payments to loan data to enhance the credit reports and credit scores that lenders use to evaluate potential borrowers.The services typically report only on-time payments, but consumer experts recommend checking the details first. The reporting of late payments, such as when tenants withhold rent to protest their living conditions, may be a drawback to enrolling, consumer experts say.Zillow, the real estate website, became the latest entrant in the rent-reporting market this month. Some options, like Zillow’s, are available to renters whose landlords or property managers use the company’s rental management system to process payments. Others, like the service offered by Self Financial, are available directly to renters.As it stands, few landlords routinely report rent payments to credit bureaus. Traditionally, only lenders have reported to the bureaus, and rent isn’t considered a loan. Fewer than 5 percent of the roughly 80 million adults who live in rental housing had rental data in their credit files, and it was mostly negative data from missed payments, according to the Urban Institute, a nonprofit research group focused on advancing upward mobility and equity. (Negative rent information can end up in credit files if a landlord reports delinquent accounts or sends them to a collection agency.)But in recent years, policymakers have been exploring whether consumers can benefit from having on-time rent payments included in credit scores, just as payments for mortgages, car loans and credit cards are. Reporting on-time rent payments is viewed as a way to reduce disparities in homeownership.Fannie Mae, the quasi-governmental home finance giant, began a pilot program in 2022 using three financial technology companies that report on-time payments from thousands of renters in multifamily buildings to the credit bureaus. Fannie Mae reported in November that its data “shows a trajectory toward better financial health for many renters.” Well over half the participants increased their credit scores. Those who already had a credit score, and saw an improvement, had an average increase of about 40 points. (Scores range from 300 to 850.) The pilot has been extended to the end of this year.TransUnion has been able to include rent payments in its credit reports since 2016 and has seen increasing interest from property managers, said Maitri Johnson, vice president of tenant and employment screening at the credit bureau. The company’s data show that rent reporting is particularly helpful to consumers who were “unscorable,” meaning they had no or little credit history, Ms. Johnson said.Ariel Nelson, a staff attorney with the National Consumer Law Center, said consumers should be cautious. Reporting on-time payments can make sense, she said, for people who are able to consistently pay on time and may be renting temporarily while saving to buy a home.But there can be risks, particularly for lower income tenants who may struggle to pay on time, she added. If a tenant opts into reporting and pays on time for several months but then hits a rough patch and falls behind, the late payment isn’t reported. But lenders might interpret the absence of rental information on the credit report for a month or two as a negative, Ms. Nelson said.(Fannie Mae said that separate from the pilot, lenders could use its automated underwriting system to supplement their credit evaluations of first-time home buyers by including rent data, and that missing rent payments weren’t counted against the borrower.)The general industry approach so far is to give renters a choice about whether to have their payments regularly reported, and to report only on-time payments.As the practice becomes more widespread, landlords could eventually require reporting of rent to credit bureaus, Ms. Johnson said. The requirement would probably be disclosed during the negotiation of the lease agreement.The reporting of negative information could affect tenants who might want to withhold rent as a way to force landlords to maintain or repair buildings, Ms. Nelson said. If landlords report the withheld payments, tenants may feel pressured to pay to avoid harming their credit. A recent news report suggested that has happened in New York City.Zillow’s service deems payments on time if they are received within 30 days of the due date, said Amy Wipfler, senior product manager for social impact at the company. Payments made after that aren’t reported. The new service is available to “tens of thousands” of renters, she said.Currently, Zillow’s service reports just to Experian. If a participant applies for a loan with a lender that uses one of the other credit bureaus, the positive rent payments won’t have an impact. Zillow aims to add the other credit bureaus, Ms. Wipfler said. (Other services, like Esusu and Self Financial, report to all three.)Here are some questions and answers about using rent payments to help credit scores:Are all credit scoring systems able to factor in rent payments?No. Only the latest, but not yet widespread, versions of credit scoring systems from FICO, the data analytics company, can incorporate rent data, said Ethan Dornhelm, the company’s vice president for scores and predictive analytics. The FICO 8 version, an older but widely used model, cannot factor in rents, he said. All versions of VantageScore, a scoring model owned by the major credit bureaus, are able to factor in rent payments, a spokeswoman, Sarah Cain, said in an email.Is there a charge for rent reporting services?That varies. Some services are free for both landlords and tenants, while others may charge one-time or monthly fees. (Some are free for new rental payments but charge for reporting prior rental history.) It may not be worthwhile for consumers who already have top-tier credit scores to have their rent reported, since they would probably see incremental benefits from an even higher score, Ms. Johnson at TransUnion said.What are other ways to build credit?Options for building credit if you have a scant credit file or marred credit include opening a “secured” credit card. You typically make a deposit and get a line of credit up to that amount, and your payment history is reported to the credit bureaus. Some community banks and credit unions offer “credit builder” loans. The money you borrow is held in a bank account while you make payments, which are reported to credit bureaus. Once you have paid the loan amount, you get access to the funds. More

    • 138 Shares119 Views

      in Elections

      The Stock and Bond Markets Are Getting Ahead of the Fed.

      by

      Stock and bond markets have been rallying in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But don’t get swept away just yet, our columnist says.It’s too early to start celebrating. That’s the Federal Reserve’s sober message — though given half a chance, the markets won’t heed it.In a news conference on Wednesday, and in written statements after its latest policymaking meeting, the Fed did what it could to restrain Wall Street’s enthusiasm.“It’s far too early to declare victory and there are certainly risks” still facing the economy, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said. But stocks shot higher anyway, with the S&P 500 on the verge of a record.The Fed indicated that it was too early to count on a “soft landing” for the economy — a reduction in inflation without a recession — though that is increasingly the Wall Street consensus. An early decline in the federal funds rate, the benchmark short-term rate that the Fed controls directly, isn’t a sure thing, either, though Mr. Powell said the Fed has begun discussing rate cuts, and the markets are, increasingly, counting on them.The markets have been climbing since July — and have been positively buoyant since late October — on the assumption that truly good times are in the offing. That may turn out to be a correct assumption — one that could be helpful to President Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party in the 2024 elections.But if you were looking for certainty about a joyful 2024, the Fed didn’t provide it in this week’s meeting. Instead, it went out of its way to say that it is positioning itself for maximum flexibility. Prudent investors may want to do the same.Reasons for OptimismOn Wednesday, the Fed said it would leave the federal funds rate where it stands now, at about 5.3 percent. That’s roughly 5 full percentage points higher than it was in early in 2022. Inflation, the glaring economic problem at the start of the year, has dropped sharply thanks, in part, to those steep interest rate increases. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.1 percent in the year through November. That was still substantially above the Fed’s target of 2 percent, but way below the inflation peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022. And because inflation has been dropping, a virtuous cycle has developed, from the Fed’s standpoint. With the federal funds rate substantially above the inflation rate, the real interest rate has been rising since July, without the Fed needing to take direct action.But Mr. Powell says rates need to be “sufficiently restrictive” to ensure that inflation doesn’t surge again. And, he cautioned, “We will need to see further evidence to have confidence that inflation is moving toward our goal.”The wonderful thing about the Fed’s interest rate tightening so far is that it has not set off a sharp increase in unemployment. The latest figures show the unemployment rate was a mere 3.7 percent in November. On a historical basis, that’s an extraordinarily low rate, and one that has been associated with a robust economy, not a weak one. Economic growth accelerated in the three months through September (the third quarter), with gross domestic product climbing at a 4.9 percent annual rate. That doesn’t look at all like the recession that had been widely anticipated a year ago.To the contrary, with indicators of robust economic growth like these, it’s no wonder that longer-term interest rates in the bond market have been dropping in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. The federal funds futures market on Wednesday forecast federal funds cuts beginning in March. By the end of 2024, the futures market expected the federal funds rate to fall to below 4 percent.But on Wednesday, the Fed forecast a slower and more modest decline, bringing the rate to about 4.6 percent.Too Soon to RelaxSeveral other indicators are less positive than the markets have been. The pattern of Treasury rates known as the yield curve has been predicting a recession since Nov. 8, 2022. Short-term rates — specifically, for three-month Treasuries — are higher than those of longer duration — particularly, for 10-year Treasuries. In financial jargon, this is an “inverted yield curve,” and it often forecasts a recession.Another well-tested economic indicator has been flashing recession warnings, too. The Leading Economic Indicators, an index formulated by the Conference Board, an independent business think tank, is “signaling recession in the near term,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at the Conference Board, said in a statement.The consensus of economists measured in independent surveys by Bloomberg and Blue Chip Economic Indicators no longer forecasts a recession in the next 12 months — reversing the view that prevailed earlier this year. But more than 30 percent of economists in the Bloomberg survey and fully 47 percent of those in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators disagree, and take the view that a recession in the next year will, in fact, happen.While economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product, has been surging, early data show that it is slowing markedly, as the bite of high interest rates gradually does its damage to consumers, small businesses, the housing market and more.Over the last two years, fiscal stimulus from residual pandemic aid and from deficit spending has countered the restrictive efforts of monetary policy. Consumers have been spending resolutely at stores and restaurants, helping to stave off an economic slowdown.Even so, a parallel measurement of economic growth — gross domestic income — has been running at a much lower rate than G.D.P. over the last year. Gross domestic income has sometimes been more reliable over the short term in measuring slowdowns. Ultimately, the two measures will be reconciled, but in which direction won’t be known for months.The MarketsThe stock and bond markets are more than eager for an end to monetary belt-tightening.Already, the U.S. stock market has fought its way upward this year and is nearly back to its peak of January 2022. And after the worst year in modern times for bonds in 2022, market returns for the year are now positive for the investment-grade bond funds — tracking the benchmark Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index — that are part of core investment portfolios.But based on corporate profits and revenues, prices are stretched for U.S. stocks, and bond market yields reflect a consensus view that a soft landing for the economy is a near-certain thing.Those market movements may be fully justified. But they imply a near-perfect, Goldilocks economy: Inflation will keep declining, enabling the Fed to cut interest rates early enough to prevent an economic calamity.But excessive market exuberance itself could upend this outcome. Mr. Powell has spoken frequently of the tightening and loosening of financial conditions in the economy, which are partly determined by the level and direction of the stock and bond markets. Too big a rally, taking place too early, could induce the Fed to delay rate cuts.All of this will have a bearing on the elections of 2024. Prosperity tends to favor incumbents. Recessions tend to favor challengers. It’s too early to make a sure bet.Without certain knowledge, the best most investors can do is to be positioned for all eventualities. That means staying diversified, with broad holdings of stocks and bonds. Hang in, and hope for the best. More

    • 100 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      The Betting on the Presidential Election Has Begun

      by

      While two leading prediction markets are fighting regulatory restrictions in court, wagers on politics and economics are still being made.Financial journalists love Wall Street aphorisms. I use them whenever I can.“Don’t fight the Fed” has been handy this year. “The stock market climbs a wall of worry” is useful whenever investors are fretting.Here’s one I’ve never been able to drop into an article — not yet, anyway: “It is an old axiom in the financial district that Wall Street betting odds are ‘never wrong.’”But nearly a century ago, on Sept. 28, 1924, one of my anonymous predecessors at The New York Times (bylines were uncommon then) used it. That hallowed saying could be repurposed today, except for a formidable problem. It refers to the betting on elections that took place on Wall Street, which was commonplace back then — and covered extensively in The Times and other major newspapers, as an important source of information about national, state and local political contests.Today, except for indirect and elaborate financial hedges on the policy implications of election outcomes, outright betting on elections is no longer a core part of American finance.Legal battles are underway to change that, however. And in the meantime, three prediction markets — PredictIt, Kalshi and the Iowa Electronic Markets — continue to operate and generate compelling insights. With any of them, it’s possible to make bets on who will win the 2024 presidential election and on a host of other consequential matters.Markets Versus PollsI’ve used prediction markets for years, especially during election season, much as my predecessors presumably used the Wall Street election betting markets — not to place bets but to obtain information.I don’t depend on these markets, and don’t buy the notion that they are superior to other means of obtaining information — or that they have the ability to reliably predict the future or change the world.Even so, they are illuminating. Some studies have found prediction markets to compare favorably with polls, especially when you are weeks or months away from voting. And when an issue or an election is important, one can never have enough data.Right now, for instance.The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows that for the 2024 election, President Biden is trailing former President Donald J. Trump in five of six swing states. Both PredictIt and the Iowa market indicate, however, that most people placing wagers on those sites believe that in the end Mr. Biden will win.Which Question?John Aristotle Phillips, who runs the PredictIt market on behalf of Victoria University of Wellington, a New Zealand institution, said in an interview that there were frequently major differences between the findings of the polls and the prediction markets. That’s entirely normal, he said. “Polls and prediction markets ask different questions.”A poll asks who, right now, you would prefer as a candidate. But a functioning market that demands real money for a trade asks something else, he said, “not who you want to win but who you think will win.”As a sports fan, I understand the difference.If you asked me which baseball team I wanted to win, I’d always pick the Mets. But over many decades, they have usually disappointed me. So if I had to put money down, I’d never bet on them.What do I really think? It depends on which question you ask.The State of PlayKalshi, PredictIt and the Iowa market operate legally but function under specific limitations.One general problem is that “no states allow betting on political events and, if it was allowed, it would be on a state-by-state basis,” said Cait DeBaun, vice president of the American Gaming Association, which represents the gambling industry. You can’t avoid enticements for betting on sports if you watch a game on television in most major markets, but you won’t see ads for bets on politics. They aren’t permitted.But both PredictIt and the Iowa market offer overtly political wagers under academic exemptions granted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.The Iowa market, which started in 1988, is the most purely academic of the three. It is devoted entirely to research and teaching, but is open to anyone who wants to place a wager.PredictIt is operating under an academic exemption, too, but it has had to fight to retain it. The C.F.T.C. withdrew its permission in August 2022, and ordered the site to shut down, saying it had strayed from its academic mission. But PredictIt won a court injunction allowing it to continue operating, and it is suing the C.F.T.C., seeking permanent authority to run its market.It has 19 contracts running now, but Mr. Phillips said he expected to offer “hundreds” soon. “We aren’t going anywhere,” he said. “We’re going to keep operating.”Kalshi, the biggest of the three sites, is the most constrained at the moment in betting on politics. As a commercial derivatives market, it can accept trades amounting to scores of millions of dollars.It already runs prediction markets on inflation, unemployment, oil prices, Federal Reserve policy, government shutdowns, the temperature in Austin, who will win an Oscar and President Biden’s approval rating. The consensus forecasts are often on the mark and extremely useful.But what Kalshi has been unable to do is run a market predicting which political party will control Congress. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has turned it down, saying that would violate prohibitions on election contracts implied by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. So Kalshi sued the C.F.T.C. this month.In an interview, Tarek Mansour, a founder of Kalshi, said that he would ultimately like to start markets on presidential elections and on a range of other contests. “Betting on elections is as old as the United States,” he said, adding that if that betting isn’t done through a careful marketplace like his, it will happen elsewhere anyway.Already, he pointed out, sophisticated and well-financed investors can hedge against the risks of election outcomes through bespoke derivative contracts arranged by investment banks. “Why limit these trades to the very rich?” he asked. “We want to make this kind of hedging available to the average investor.”I said that I would call these “trades” bets.He said, “I wouldn’t disagree.”Betting on U.S. elections takes place abroad. Betfair in Britain runs a robust market. And unregulated offshore betting is conducted on Polymarket, which uses cryptocurrency and was fined $1.4 million by the C.F.T.C. for running afoul of its rules. Then there’s FTX, the failed cryptocurrency exchange that was headed by Sam Bankman-Fried, who was convicted this month on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. It ran an unregulated, offshore prediction market in the 2020 election cycle.“Driving these markets offshore doesn’t make sense to me,” Mr. Mansour said.I’ll leave these legal matters to the courts and the regulatory agencies to decide.But like my journalistic predecessors, I welcome the data trove that betting on elections provides. I’m hoping the entrepreneurs who run prediction markets will keep the information flowing, so we can really test the truth of the old saying, “Wall Street betting odds are never wrong.” More

    • 163 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      New York: How to Vote, Where to Vote and What’s on the Ballot

      by

      [Here’s how to vote in New Jersey, Ohio, Mississippi, Kentucky, and Virginia.]For most New Yorkers, it will be a relatively quiet Election Day, with no presidential, governor or mayoral races on the ballot this year.Polls are open from 6 a.m. until 9 p.m. You can find your polling location online.Absentee ballots can still be mailed in, but they most be postmarked by Tuesday. They can also be dropped off at a poll site in your county or your county board of elections office by 9 p.m. Tuesday.What is on the ballot this year?Your ballot might include races for the New York City Council, district attorney, judges and the two statewide ballot measures.The City Council is led by Democrats, and they are expected to keep control of the legislative body. But some local races have been contentious, and Republicans have been trying to increase their power in a city that has long favored Democrats.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.We are confirming your access to this article, this will take just a moment. However, if you are using Reader mode please log in, subscribe, or exit Reader mode since we are unable to verify access in that state.Confirming article access.If you are a subscriber, please  More

    • 125 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      Early Voting Begins in New York: Here’s What to Know

      by

      Although no citywide offices are being contested this year, the New York City Council is up for election, and voters statewide will consider two ballot questions.Election Day is still several days away, but voters in New York can get a head start on Saturday, when early voting begins.There are some interesting New York City Council races on the ballot. One features two sitting council members who are fighting bitterly over a redrawn district in southern Brooklyn; one of the candidates switched parties and is now running as a Republican. Another face-off pits two newcomers in a nearby district that was recently created to amplify the voices of Asian voters.But for most New Yorkers, it will be a relatively quiet Election Day, with no presidential, governor or mayoral races on the ballot this year.What is on the ballot this year?Your ballot might include races for the City Council, district attorney, judges and two statewide ballot measures.The City Council is led by Democrats, and they are expected to keep control of the legislative body. But some local races have been contentious, and Republicans have been trying to increase their power in a city that has long favored Democrats.There are district attorney races in the Bronx, Queens and Staten Island, but only Melinda Katz, the Queens district attorney, faces a challenger. The two statewide ballot measures involve a debt limit for small city school districts and the construction of sewage facilities.How do I vote?Early voting starts on Oct. 28 and ends Nov. 5. You can find your polling location online.Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 7, and polls are open from 6 a.m. until 9 p.m.Absentee ballots are available for people who are out of town, ill or have other reasons they cannot vote in person, though the deadline to apply for an absentee ballot online has passed.Are there any close races?One of the most interesting races is the clash in Brooklyn between Justin Brannan, a Democrat and chair of the Council’s Finance Committee, and Ari Kagan, a council member who recently left the Democratic Party for the Republican Party.Mr. Brannan, a former punk rock guitarist, is running in a swing district against Mr. Kagan, a former radio and TV show host from Belarus. The two have quarreled over the city’s handling of the migrant crisis, abortion and other issues.Another council member, Inna Vernikov, a Republican, is running for re-election after being charged with openly carrying a gun at a pro-Palestinian rally — an event that she opposed and was observing.In Queens, Vickie Paladino, a Republican council member, is facing a challenge from Tony Avella, a Democratic former state senator. In the Bronx, Marjorie Velázquez, a Democratic council member, has had strong union support as she runs against a Republican challenger, Kristy Marmorato, an X-ray technician hoping to replicate her party’s showing in 2021, when Curtis Sliwa, a Republican, narrowly won the district in the mayoral race over Eric Adams, a Democrat.Why is there a new City Council district?The city’s redistricting commission sought to reflect the growth in the city’s Asian population, and created a City Council district in Sunset Park, Brooklyn, which has a majority of Asian residents. The so-called Asian opportunity district has no incumbent.The two main candidates are Chinese American. Susan Zhuang, a Democrat and chief of staff to a state assembly member, is running against Ying Tan, a Republican and community activist.The Republican Party has made inroads with some Asian voters in New York, and Ms. Tan has focused on crime. Her campaign website promises to “bring law and order back!”A third candidate, Vito LaBella, a former police lieutenant, is running on the Conservative line after losing the Republican primary to Ms. Tan.What issues are on voters’ minds?New Yorkers are concerned about many pressing issues: an influx of migrants from the southern border, public safety, the city’s housing and affordability crisis, and the recent attacks in Israel.Roughly 58 percent of New York State voters agree with Mayor Adams that the migrant issue “will destroy New York City,” according to a recent Siena College poll.On Israel, about 50 percent of voters believe that a “large-scale Israeli attack in Gaza is too risky,” but that Israel “must try everything” to rescue hostages taken by Hamas, according to the poll. Nearly one-third of voters said that a “large-scale attack” in Gaza was warranted.Steven Greenberg, a Siena College pollster, also noted that a “Republican came within seven points of being elected governor” last year, when Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, beat Lee Zeldin, then a Republican congressman. With Republicans gaining ground in New York State, Mr. Greenberg said that the poll showed the “worst-ever” approval ratings for President Biden in New York. More

    • 150 Shares139 Views

      in Elections

      First Republican Debate: How to Watch and What Time Does It Start

      by

      The first debate is Wednesday night from 9 to 11 p.m. Eastern. Donald Trump has taped an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that is scheduled to air simultaneously.The first Republican primary debate of the 2024 presidential race will be held Wednesday, Aug. 23, from 9 to 11 p.m. Eastern. The debate, taking place in Milwaukee, is sanctioned by the Republican National Committee and hosted by Fox News. Here are some of the ways you can watch it.Fox News Channel will broadcast the event, with live coverage starting at 8 p.m. Eastern — an hour before the debate itself — and running past midnight.Fox Business Network will broadcast the same coverage simultaneously.The face-off will be streamed at foxnews.com.The online streaming platform Rumble will also show the debate, as an official R.N.C. partner.Which candidates will be onstage?As of the official qualification deadline Monday evening, eight candidates had made the stage. They are: Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, former Vice President Mike Pence, the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.When will they start taking questions?Immediately, according to the debate guidelines. There are no opening statements.What about Trump?Donald J. Trump, the clear front-runner for the nomination, plans to skip the debate. He has, instead, recorded an interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. They plan to post the interview on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, to run concurrently with the debate, according to a person with knowledge of the planning.Mr. Trump’s decision to record an interview with Mr. Carlson to be released while his rivals share a stage was a slap in the face to both the R.N.C., whose leadership tried hard to persuade him to participate in the debate, and to Fox News, which is hosting the debate, and fired Mr. Carlson earlier this year.Who is moderating the debate?The debate will be moderated by two Fox News hosts, Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Mr. Baier has previously moderated Republican debates in 2015 and 2016, and he and Ms. MacCallum led a town-hall event with Mr. Trump in 2020.What issues are the candidates likely to focus on?The candidates will undoubtedly be asked about Mr. Trump and the four criminal indictments against him. Other topics of discussion could include inflation, immigration and border security, foreign-policy issues like the situations in Ukraine and China, and abortion. Here is where the candidates stand on those issues and more.Let us know here what you hope the moderators will ask.Maggie Haberman More

    • 125 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Elecciones en Paraguay: esto es lo que hay que saber

      by

      El país sudamericano elige a su presidente entre un candidato del arraigado partido oficialista y dos contendientes de oposición, una figura anticorrupción y un alborotador de ultraderecha.Paraguay, el país sin salida al mar de 7 millones de habitantes en el centro de Sudamérica, elige presidente el domingo. La votación pondrá a prueba la fuerza del viraje latinoamericano a la izquierda de los últimos años.En la región, los contendientes de oposición han ganado 16 elecciones presidenciales organizadas libremente y seis de los siete países más grandes de la región han elegido líderes izquierdistas desde 2018.Ahora está por verse si la tendencia se sostiene en Paraguay, acaso el país más conservador a ultranza de Sudamérica, que enfrenta una pobreza profunda, una economía inestable y una corrupción muy arraigada.El conservador Partido Colorado busca mantener su control del país, que ha gobernado en los últimos 76 años excepto cinco, incluidas cuatro décadas de dictadura militar.El centro de Asunción. Paraguay ha estado lidiando con la pobreza, una economía en crisis y una corrupción profundamente arraigada.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesPero, ahora, ese dominio parece estar en riesgo. El presidente en funciones del Colorado, Mario Abdo Benítez, no puede volver a postularse debido a los límites al mandato y las encuestas muestran que es uno de los líderes más impopulares de América Latino debido a su manejo de la pandemia. Por el Partido Colorado contiende un exministro de Hacienda de Paraguay.En enero, el gobierno de EE. UU. impuso sanciones económicas al líder del Partido Colorado, el expresidente Horacio Cartes, al acusarlo de llegar al poder con sobornos. Las sanciones han puesto en jaque la financiación del partido.Algunas encuestas recientes han mostrado que el candidato favorito de oposición —un conservador que se ubica a la izquierda del candidato del Partido Colorado— cuenta con una ventaja estrecha.Las elecciones, en las que se disputan cargos legislativos, regionales y locales, han despertado debates por las relaciones diplomáticas con China y Taiwán, motivado promesas de un penal construido especialmente para políticos corruptos y presenciado el impulso de último momento de un candidato de ultraderecha que ha prometido disolver el Congreso e instaurar un gobierno militar.Las urnas abren el domingo de las 7 a. m. a las 4 p. m., y se espera que los resultados se den a conocer a unas horas del cierre de las mesas de votación. Se requiere que un candidato consiga la mayoría simple para adjudicarse la elección.Esto es lo que hay que saber.¿Quiénes son los candidatos?El candidato del Colorado, Santiago Peña, de 44 años, es un exministro de Hacienda de Paraguay, otrora economista del Fondo Monetario Internacional en Washington y protegido de Cartes, el expresidente sancionado.Si bien el Partido Colorado a menudo se ha hecho de apoyo por sus políticas socialmente conservadoras, Peña se ha presentado como la nueva generación del partido, una más enfocada en la economía. Ha prometido crear 500.000 empleados, ofrecer jardín de infancia gratuito, bajar los precios de combustible y energía y poner más oficiales de policía en las calles.Santiago Peña, el candidato presidencial por el Partido Colorado, se ha presentado como la nueva generación del partido conservador, una más enfocada en la economía.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesEn una entrevista dijo que financiaría esas promesas al ampliar la economía, y por ende los ingresos fiscales, al eliminar las trabas burocráticas.El principal candidato de la oposición, Efraín Alegre, de 60 años, es un abogado conservador y excongresista que lidera una amplia coalición de partidos políticos, que abarca desde la extrema izquierda a la derecha religiosa, que se han unido para desbancar a los colorados. El domingo será su tercer intento de llegar al cargo más alto del país. En 2018 se quedó a solo 96.000 votos —4 por ciento del total— de alcanzar la presidencia.Hijo de un conductor de ómnibus y una catequista del campo paraguayo, Alegre ha buscado presentarse como un hombre común y corriente y ha prometido renunciar a la residencia presidencial de ser electo.Ha sustentado su campaña en la promesa de erradicar a la “mafia” que, asegura, controló Paraguay. También ha prometido desterrar a los políticos corruptos a una nueva prisión en una región árida y remota en el norte del país y financiar medicamentos gratuitos con la recuperación del dinero malversado por los colorados que afirma, asciende a 2000 millones de dólares cada año.El principal candidato de la oposición, Efraín Alegre, ha construido su campaña en la promesa de erradicar la corrupción en el país.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York Times“No pasa solamente por hacer el cambio, pasa por recuperar lo robado y devolverlo al pueblo”, dijo en una entrevista el viernes.Si bien Peña y Alegre han liderado en las encuestas, en los sondeos recientes ha ganado impulso Paraguayo Cubas, de 61 años, excéntrico agitador anticorrupción.Cubas es un exsenador de ultraderecha que fue expulsado del Congreso luego de forcejear con otros legisladores y patear una patrulla de la policía. Antes había llegado a los titulares porque golpeó con su cinturón a un juez y luego defecó en su despacho. Ha llevado a cabo su campaña principalmente en las redes sociales, tildando al Congreso de una “cueva de ladrones” e insinuando que gobernaría como dictador.Los analistas dudan de que Cubas tenga forma de llegar a la presidencia. Más bien, dijeron, podría quitarle votos a Alegre y darle la victoria al Partido Colorado.¿Por qué tiene tanto peso un expresidente?Cartes, de 66 años, dejó la presidencia en 2018, pero sigue siendo posiblemente el hombre más poderoso de Paraguay. Además de liderar el Partido Colorado, tiene intereses en fábricas cigarreras, bancos, farmacias, canales de televisión, periódicos y un club de fútbol.En enero, el Departamento del Tesoro de EE. UU. prohibió que él y sus empresas participen en el sistema financiero estadounidense, al asegurar que cuenta con vínculos al grupo militante islamista libanés Hezbolá y ha repartido millones de dólares para asegurarse el control del gobierno. Cartes ha negado las acusaciones.Horacio Cartes, expresidente de Paraguay y líder del Partido Colorado, con Peña en un acto de campaña en Asunción.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesLas sanciones económicas han dificultado que el Partido Colorado recaude fondos y plantean un dilema político para Peña.En una entrevista, Peña dijo que las acusaciones eran “responsabilidad personal” de Cartes y que no lo reflejaban a él o a su partido. “Soy mi propia persona”, dijo. Esta semana ambos aparecieron juntos en un escenario.Alegre se ha apalancado de las acusaciones contra Cartes, llamándolo el “Pablo Escobar paraguayo”.¿Qué otros temas se discuten?La delincuencia: Paraguay, que ha sido refugio histórico de narcotraficantes, ha sido remecido por una serie de asesinatos de alto perfil. En uno de los casos, un fiscal federal que investigaba a los carteles de la droga fue asesinado a tiros por sicarios a bordo de un jet ski mientras estaba de luna de miel en una playa colombiana con su esposa embarazada.La economía: Paraguay fue una de las naciones más golpeadas por la pandemia en América Latina y su economía se contrajo el año pasado. Una cuarta parte de la población vive en pobreza, muchas carreteras están sin pavimentar y en los hospitales escasean medicamentos básicos. Las tasas de impuestos son de las más bajas de la región.Familias a orillas del río Paraguay en Asunción. Una cuarta parte de la población vive en la pobreza.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesTaiwán: Paraguay forma parte de un club que se reduce rápidamente conformado por 13 países, en su mayoría naciones insulares, que aún mantienen relaciones diplomáticas con Taiwán en lugar de con China. La amistad entre Paraguay y Taiwán —firmada por sus dictadores en 1957— sigue sólida. Taiwán financió el recinto congresal modernista de Paraguay y brindó su avión presidencial. Pero debido a esto los agricultores paraguayos enfrentan obstáculos al exportar granos de soya y carne. Alegre ha dicho que reevaluará la relación, lo que inquietaría a las autoridades en Washington. Peña ha prometido mantener el statu quo.La presa: Quienquiera que lleve la banda presidencial el 15 de agosto deberá encargarse de una negociación fundamental a causa de Itaipú, una presa hidroeléctrica colosal que se comparte con Brasil. Según lo previsto en un tratado de 1973, Paraguay vende la energía que le sobra a la presa a Brasil a precios mínimos. Pero el tratado prescribe en agosto, y abre la puerta a un acuerdo que podría ser transformacional para el país más pobre.¿Cómo va la contienda?Las encuestas muestran una contienda ajustada entre Peña y Alegre y cada uno va a la cabeza en algunos sondeos. (Históricamente, las encuestadoras paraguayas han sido imprecisas. En 2018, los sondeos sobreestimaron por mucho el apoyo del candidato del Colorado).AtlasIntel, una encuestadora brasileña dijo que según un sondeo reciente en línea entre 2320 paraguayos, Alegre lideraba con 34 por ciento, Peña contaba con 33 por ciento y Cubas 23 por ciento. El margen de error era de 2 puntos porcentuales. La mayor sorpresa del sondeo fue el nivel de sorpresa para Cubas.Un acto de campaña de Alegre en Capiatá. Según una reciente encuesta en línea, Alegre tiene una ligera ventaja.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesEn entrevistas realizadas el viernes en Asunción, la capital, los paraguayos expresaron frustración con la corrupción y el rumbo del país, pero no había acuerdo en quién era la persona adecuada para cambiar la situación.Juana Salinas, de 74 años, esperaba un bus afuera de un mercado, con un bastón negro y una bolsa de basura llena de recipientes de comida en venta. Dijo que apoyaba a Peña porque siempre había votado por el Colorado, al igual que sus padres, ya fallecidos. “Siempre, porque no voy a deshonrar a mi padre y a mi madre”, dijo. “Mi padre es Colorado, mi madre es Colorado”.En el mercado, Cynthia Acosta, de 29, estaba embolsando granos de maíz seco que los clientes suelen usar para hacer chipa guasú, el pan de elote paraguayo. Dijo que planeaba votar por Alegre otra vez porque le gustaban sus planes de creación de empleo juvenil.“Hay muchas cosas que deben cambiar”, dijo. “No es una tarea fácil para ninguno”.Cynthia Acosta dijo que pensaba votar por Alegre una vez más, porque le gustaban sus planes para crear empleos para los jóvenes.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York Times More

    • 125 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Paraguay Picks a New President: What You Need to Know

      by

      The South American nation is deciding between a candidate from the entrenched conservative party and two opposition candidates —an anti-corruption crusader and a far-right firebrand.Paraguay, the landlocked nation of 7 million people in the center of South America, picks a new president on Sunday. The vote will test the strength of Latin America’s leftward shift in recent years.Opposition challengers have won the last 16 freely held presidential elections in Latin America, and six of the region’s seven largest countries have elected leftist leaders since 2018.Now it will be seen whether that trend can hold with Paraguay, perhaps South America’s most staunchly conservative nation, as it grapples with deep poverty, a sputtering economy and deeply rooted corruption.The conservative Colorado Party is seeking to retain its grip on the country, which it has controlled for all but five of the past 76 years, including four decades of military dictatorship.Downtown Asunción. Paraguay has been grappling with deep poverty, a sputtering economy and deeply rooted corruption.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesBut that dominance now appears in jeopardy. The Colorado incumbent, President Mario Abdo Benítez, cannot run again because of term limits — and surveys show he is one of Latin America’s most unpopular leaders because of his handling of the pandemic. Representing the Colorado Party at the polls will be Paraguay’s former finance minister.In January, the U.S. government placed financial sanctions on the Colorado Party’s leader, the former president Horacio Cartes, accusing him of bribing his way to power. The sanctions have complicated the party’s financing.Some recent polls have shown that the leading opposition candidate — a conservative who is still to the left of the Colorado Party’s contender — holds a narrow lead.The election, which also covers congressional, regional and local seats, has featured debate over diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan, promises of a prison built specifically for corrupt politicians and late momentum for a far-right candidate who has pledged to dissolve Congress and enact military rule.Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, with results expected within hours of polls closing. Candidates need a simple majority to be elected.Here’s what you need to know.Who are the candidates?The Colorado candidate, Santiago Peña, 44, is Paraguay’s former finance minister, a former International Monetary Fund economist in Washington and the protégé of Mr. Cartes, the sanctioned ex-president.While the Colorado Party has often built its support on socially conservative policies, Mr. Peña has pitched himself as the party’s new generation, one more focused on the economy. He has promised to create 500,000 jobs, offer free kindergarten, decrease fuel and energy prices, and get more police officers on the street.Santiago Peña, the presidential candidate for the conservative Colorado Party, has pitched himself as the party’s new generation, one more focused on the economy.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesIn an interview, he has said he would pay for those promises by expanding the economy, and thus tax revenue, by eliminating red tape.The leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, 60, is a conservative lawyer and former congressman who leads a broad coalition of dozens of political parties, from the far left to the religious right, that have joined together to oust the Colorados. Sunday is his third try for the nation’s highest office. In 2018, he came within just 96,000 votes — or 4 percent of the total — from the presidency.The son of a bus driver and a preacher from rural Paraguay, Mr. Alegre has sought to present himself as an Everyman, promising to eschew the presidential residence if elected.He has built his campaign on a pledge to root out the “mafia” that he said controlled Paraguay. He also has promised to banish corrupt politicians to a new prison in an arid, remote region in the north and to pay for free medication by recouping what he said was $2 billion embezzled by the Colorados each year.The leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, has built his campaign on a pledge to root out corruption in the country.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York Times“It’s not only about bringing change, it’s about recovering what was stolen and returning it to the people,” he said in an interview on Friday.While Mr. Peña and Mr. Alegre have led the polls, Paraguayo Cubas, 61, an eccentric anti-corruption firebrand, has gained momentum in recent surveys.Mr. Cubas is a far-right former senator who was expelled from Congress after physically grappling with other lawmakers and kicking a police car. He had previously attracted headlines for whipping a judge with his belt and then defecating in the judge’s office. He has run his campaign mainly on social media, branding Congress as a “cave of bandits” and suggesting he would rule as a dictator.Analysts are skeptical that Mr. Cubas has a path to the presidency. Instead, they said, he could take votes from Mr. Alegre and hand the Colorado Party victory.Why is a former president such an important figure?Mr. Cartes, 66, left the presidency in 2018 but is still perhaps Paraguay’s most powerful man. In addition to running the Colorado Party, he has financial interests in cigarette factories, banks, pharmacies, TV channels, newspapers and a soccer club.In January, the U.S. Treasury Department barred him and his companies from the U.S. financial system, claiming he had ties to the Lebanese Islamist militant group Hezbollah and had doled out millions of dollars to cement his control over government. Mr. Cartes has denied the allegations.Horacio Cartes, the former president of Paraguay and leader of the Colorado party, with Mr. Peña at a campaign event in Asunción.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesThe financial sanctions made it more difficult for the Colorado Party to raise money and posed a political dilemma for Mr. Peña.In an interview, Mr. Peña said the allegations were Mr. Cartes’s “personal responsibility” and not reflective of the party or him. “I’m my own person,” he said. The two men still appeared onstage together this week.Mr. Alegre has seized on the allegations against Mr. Cartes, calling him the “Paraguayan Pablo Escobar.”What are the other issues?Crime: Paraguay, which has long been a haven for drug traffickers, has been shaken by a string of high-profile murders. In one case, a federal prosecutor investigating drug cartels was shot dead by jet-ski-riding assassins while on his honeymoon, next to his pregnant wife on a Colombian beach.The economy: Paraguay was one of the Latin American nations most devastated by the pandemic, and its economy shrank last year. A quarter of the population lives in poverty, many roads are still unpaved, and hospitals are short on basic medicines. Tax rates are among the lowest in the region.Families along the Paraguay River in Asunción. A quarter of the population lives in poverty.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesTaiwan: Paraguay is part of a fast-shrinking club of 13 countries, mostly small island nations, that maintain relations with Taiwan rather than China. The Paraguay-Taiwan friendship — inked by their dictators in 1957 — remains strong. Taiwan paid for Paraguay’s modernist congressional building and provided its presidential jet. But Paraguay’s farmers face obstacles in exporting soybeans and beef to China as a result. Mr. Alegre has said he will re-examine the relationship, which would upset U.S. officials. Mr. Peña has pledged to keep the status quo.The dam: Whoever dons the presidential sash on Aug. 15 will also have to handle a pivotal negotiation over Itaipú, a colossal hydroelectric dam shared with Brazil. Per a 1973 treaty, Paraguay sells its spare energy from the dam to Brazil at rock-bottom prices. But the treaty elapses in August, opening the door to a transformational deal for the poorer country.What is the state of the race?Polls show a neck-and-neck race between Mr. Peña and Mr. Alegre, with each candidate leading some surveys. (Paraguayan pollsters have historically been inaccurate. In 2018, polls wildly overestimated the support for the Colorado candidate.)AtlasIntel, a Brazilian pollster, said that according to a recent online poll of 2,320 Paraguayans, Mr. Alegre led with 34 percent, Mr. Peña had 33 percent and Mr. Cubas had 23 percent. The margin of error was 2 percentage points. The poll’s biggest surprise was the level of support for Mr. Cubas.Supporters of Mr. Alegre at a campaign event in Capiatá. According to a recent online poll, Mr. Alegre has a slim lead.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesIn interviews in the capital, Asunción, on Friday, Paraguayans said they were frustrated with corruption and the direction of the country, but they differed about who was the right person to change it.Juana Salinas, 74, was waiting for the bus outside a market, with a black cane and a trash bag full of food containers for sale. She said she supported Mr. Peña because she had always voted Colorado, like her deceased parents. “Always, because I’m not going to dishonor my father and mother,” she said. “My father is Colorado, my mother is Colorado.”Inside the market, Cynthia Acosta, 29, was bagging dried corn kernels that customers typically use to make chipa guasú, or Paraguayan cornbread. She said she planned to vote for Mr. Alegre once again, because she liked his plans to create jobs for young people.“There are a lot of things that need to change,” she said. “It’s not an easy job for anyone.”Cynthia Acosta said she planned to vote for Mr. Alegre once again, because she liked his plans to create jobs for young people.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York Times More