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      Ecuador está en crisis, pero hay maneras de salir

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      Pedro Briones, candidato al Congreso y líder político en Ecuador, fue asesinado el lunes. El ataque se produjo a unos días de que Fernando Villavicencio, candidato presidencial y firme crítico de la corrupción, fuera asesinado al salir de un mitin de campaña en Quito, la capital del país. Las muertes, tan cercanas a las elecciones generales de Ecuador previstas para el domingo, han conmocionado a los ecuatorianos y han suscitado la condena mundial. La ola de violencia demuestra que nadie, ni siquiera un candidato presidencial, está a salvo en Ecuador.Christian Zurita, periodista de investigación, excolega y amigo cercano de Villavicencio, será su reemplazo en la contienda. Y aunque lo que sucederá el domingo es incierto, algo está claro: la intensa polarización política de Ecuador no ayudará a resolver esta crisis.El homicidio de Briones está siendo investigado y seis ciudadanos colombianos fueron detenidos en conexión con el homicidio de Villavicencio. La manera en que el sistema de justicia penal ecuatoriano gestione las investigaciones en curso será una prueba de fuego para el país.Los políticos ecuatorianos y sus aliados internacionales deberán reunir la voluntad política y los recursos necesarios para llevar a cabo una investigación seria e independiente de los asesinatos. Si las autoridades se limitan a procesar a unos cuantos sicarios y dejan las cosas como están, las organizaciones criminales se atreverán a más. Pero si toman el camino más largo y difícil —descubrir y llevar ante la justicia a los autores intelectuales de los homicidios y sacar a la luz los vínculos del crimen organizado con partes del Estado—, puede que el país tenga una vía para no caer en el abismo.Como politólogo especializado en América Latina, he vivido y trabajado en países como Colombia y Guatemala, donde hace décadas las pandillas y los grupos de delincuencia organizada empezaron a sembrar el caos a medida que se hacían más poderosos. Aunque Ecuador había logrado eludir la violencia impulsada por el narcotráfico y los conflictos armados internos que asolaron a sus vecinos sudamericanos durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX, tiene todas las características para convertirse en un paraíso para los narcotraficantes. El país se encuentra ubicado entre Perú y Colombia, los dos mayores productores de hoja de coca en el mundo. Además, desde el año 2000, la economía ecuatoriana usa dólares como moneda legal, lo que la hace atractiva para el lavado de dinero.La desmovilización en 2017 de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), que durante mucho tiempo controlaron las rutas de narcotráfico ecuatorianas, creó un vacío que los nuevos cárteles y pandillas intentan llenar. A principios de este año, fui testigo de cómo la violencia está reescribiendo las reglas de la vida cotidiana ecuatoriana. La tasa de homicidios de Ecuador es ahora la cuarta más alta de América Latina y la extorsión ha aumentado a un ritmo alarmante. Como consecuencia, las calles, antes llenas de vida, lucen inquietantemente vacías y los comercios han empezado a cerrar más temprano. Un día, vi cómo un comerciante y sus clientes se agolpaban alrededor de un teléfono para ver y aplaudir videos de justicia por mano propia contra presuntos pandilleros. Muchas personas con las que hablé me contaron que planeaban migrar. Desde octubre, más de 77.000 ecuatorianos han llegado a la frontera entre México y Estados Unidos, un aumento de casi ocho veces desde 2020.Los desatinos políticos han dejado a Ecuador mal equipado para hacer frente a la espiral de violencia. Rafael Correa, presidente entre 2007 y 2017, cometió los primeros errores importantes. Es cierto que algunas medidas implementadas por su gobierno ayudaron a reducir los homicidios a niveles bajos. Pero Correa también eliminó la unidad policial de investigaciones especiales, cerró una base militar estadounidense que suministraba equipo para vigilar su espacio aéreo y sus vastas aguas territoriales y duplicó la población carcelaria, lo que creó un caldo de cultivo para las pandillas. Sus sucesores también cometieron errores garrafales.Durante el gobierno del expresidente Lenín Moreno funcionarios en los poderes ejecutivo y judicial que habían sido nombrados por Correa fueron destituidos, y un referendo reinstauró los límites a los mandatos presidenciales eliminados por su predecesor. El poder judicial abrió investigaciones por corrupción durante los años de Correa y la polarización estalló entre los correístas, que afirmaban ser víctimas de una justicia politizada, y sus opositores, como Moreno, que sostenían que estaban reconstruyendo los pesos y contrapesos democráticos erosionados durante la presidencia de su antecesor. Mientras se gestaba esta lucha política, las pandillas convirtieron las cárceles sobrepobladas en sus centros de mando y empezaron a infiltrarse en las instituciones gubernamentales y las fuerzas armadas.Guillermo Lasso, el actual presidente, libra una batalla con los seguidores de Correa en la Asamblea Nacional, que Lasso disolvió por decreto en mayo. También ha decretado diversos estados de emergencia e incluso desplegó soldados en las calles para combatir a las pandillas y los carteles. Sin embargo, el control de los grupos criminales sobre el país solo ha aumentado. Resulta inquietante que el cuñado de Lasso, quien fue uno de sus asesores cercanos, esté siendo investigado por presuntos vínculos con la mafia albanesa. En marzo, un empresario implicado en el caso fue encontrado muerto.Un simpatizante mostrando un volante de Villavicencio durante una protesta un día después del asesinato del candidato.Carlos Noriega/Associated PressEl auge de la delincuencia en Ecuador es transnacional, pues los cárteles mexicanos, grupos colombianos y venezolanos, así como la mafia albanesa compiten por controlar el narcotráfico en el país y debilitar al Estado. Para frenar el poder de la delincuencia organizada y la violencia, las autoridades deben erradicar la corrupción, investigar los vínculos con los políticos locales y nacionales y perseguir a sus lavadores de dinero y contactos en el Estado.Esto es mucho pedir para un país cuyas instituciones están cada vez más cooptadas por la delincuencia. Requerirá la cooperación permanente y el valor de la policía, los fiscales, los jueces y los políticos del país. Pero ya se ha hecho antes. Colombia podría ser un ejemplo a seguir. A partir de 2006, el gobierno de ese país empezó a tomar medidas para investigar, procesar y condenar a más de 60 miembros del Congreso que ayudaron e instigaron a los paramilitares narcotraficantes.El presidente Lasso invitó al FBI y a la policía colombiana a colaborar en la investigación del asesinato de Villavicencio. Es un buen primer paso, pero para que la iniciativa de verdad sea eficaz, la cooperación en este caso y en otros debe continuar durante el próximo gobierno y más allá, independientemente de quién gane este domingo.Los líderes ecuatorianos deben resistir la tentación de dejar la lucha contra la delincuencia solo en manos del ejército o de solo usar las armas para derrotar a los cárteles y las pandillas. Este enfoque ha demostrado ser ineficaz en países como México y muchas veces ha empeorado la violencia. En cambio, los dirigentes ecuatorianos deben apoyar a fiscales, jueces y policías independientes.Las fuerzas armadas de Ecuador, una de las instituciones de mayor confianza en el país, no están diseñadas para dirigir investigaciones penales, seguir el rastro del lavado de dinero ni denunciar a los funcionarios corruptos. Esas tareas corresponden a las instituciones civiles, como la policía y el poder judicial. Aunque estas instituciones no son inmunes a la corrupción y la politización entre sus filas, todavía pueden reencauzarse.La polarización ha abierto profundas brechas entre los partidarios de Correa y sus opositores, incluido Villavicencio. En la última semana, los políticos de ambos bandos se han culpado unos a otros del deterioro de la seguridad. Para avanzar, deben unirse en torno a un objetivo común: investigar los vínculos de los grupos criminales con los servidores públicos sin tratar de proteger a los miembros de su propio bando. Quienquiera que gane las elecciones presidenciales debe mirar más allá de las divisiones políticas y poner al país por encima del partido.El asesinato de Villavicencio marca un punto de inflexión. Pero aún hay tiempo para actuar antes de que el país siga avanzando por el camino que han recorrido Colombia y México. Es lo que Villavicencio habría querido.Freeman es investigador de Estudios Latinoamericanos en el Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores. More

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      Ecuador’s Crime Surge Is Devastating, but There Is a Way Forward

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      On Aug. 14, Pedro Briones, a congressional candidate and local political leader in Ecuador, was shot down. The assassination came less than a week after Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate and vocal critic of corruption, was shot dead as he left a campaign rally in the country’s capital, Quito. The killings so close to Ecuador’s general election, scheduled for Sunday, have shocked Ecuadoreans and drawn global condemnation. The slayings show that no one — not even a presidential candidate — is safe in Ecuador.Christian Zurita, an investigative journalist and a former colleague and close friend of Mr. Villavicencio, was chosen by their political party to run in his place.What will happen next is uncertain, but it is clear that the nation’s intense political polarization will not help solve its crisis of violence.The shooting of Mr. Briones is under investigation, and six Colombian nationals are being held in connection with Mr. Villavicencio’s killing. How the country’s criminal justice system handles the ongoing inquiries will be a litmus test for the nation. Ecuadorean politicians and their international partners will need to summon the political will and resources to complete an independent and thorough investigation into the killings. If the authorities prosecute just a few hit men and leave it at that, criminal groups will only grow more brazen. But if they take the longer, tougher road — rooting out and bringing to justice the masterminds behind the killings and exposing organized crime’s ties to parts of the state — the country may have a path back from the brink.As a political scientist focused on Latin America, I have lived and worked in countries like Colombia and Guatemala, where decades ago gangs and organized criminal groups began sowing chaos as they grew more powerful. Although Ecuador historically dodged the narco-trafficking-fueled violence and internal armed conflicts that bedeviled its South American neighbors during the latter half of the 20th century, it has all the trappings of a drug traffickers’ paradise. It is sandwiched between Peru and Colombia, the world’s two largest producers of coca. And Ecuador’s economy has used dollars as the legal tender since 2000, making it attractive for money launderers.The demobilization in 2017 of Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces, which had long controlled Ecuadorean trafficking routes, created a vacuum that new cartels and gangs are now battling to fill. Earlier this year, I witnessed how the violence is rewriting the rules of daily life. Ecuador’s homicide rate is now the fourth highest in Latin America and extortion has risen to a startling rate. As a result, once-lively streets are now eerily empty and businesses have begun to close at nightfall. One day, I watched as a storekeeper and his patrons crowded around a smartphone to view — and applaud — clips of vigilante justice against suspected gang members. Many people I spoke to told me they planned to migrate. Since October, more than 77,000 have reached the U.S.-Mexico border: a nearly eightfold increase from 2020.Policy blunders have left Ecuador ill-equipped to face the spiral of violence. Rafael Correa, a populist who served as the country’s president from 2007 to 2017, made the first serious missteps. It’s true that some measures put in place by his administration helped cut homicides to new lows. But Mr. Correa also eliminated the police unit for special investigations, closed a U.S. military base that supplied equipment to monitor its airspace and vast territorial waters and doubled the prison population, creating a breeding ground for gangs. His successors also made blunders.President Lenín Moreno purged many of Mr. Correa’s appointees to the executive and judiciary, and won a referendum that reinstated presidential term limits scrapped by his predecessor. The judiciary opened investigations into corruption during the Correa years. Polarization flared between Mr. Correa’s supporters, who claimed they were victims of politicized justice, while critics like Mr. Moreno argued that they were rebuilding democratic checks and balances eroded under Mr. Correa. As that political melee played out, gangs turned Ecuador’s crowded prisons into their own command centers and began to infiltrate government institutions and armed forces.Guillermo Lasso, Ecuador’s current president, has been locked in battle with Mr. Correa’s followers in the National Assembly, which Mr. Lasso dissolved by decree in May. Mr. Lasso has rolled out state emergencies and even put troops on the streets to fight the gangs and cartels. But criminal groups’ hold over the country has only grown. Alarmingly, Mr. Lasso’s brother-in-law — formerly one of his closest advisers — is under investigation for alleged ties to the Albanian mafia. In March, a businessman implicated in the case was found dead.A supporter showing a flyer of Mr. Villavicencio during a protest a day after the candidate was assassinated.Carlos Noriega/Associated PressEcuador’s crime surge is transnational, with Mexican cartels, Colombian and Venezuelan groups and the Albanian mafia all vying to control the nation’s drug trade and weaken the state. While charting a path forward may seem daunting, it’s not impossible. To curb the power of organized crime and violence, the authorities need to root out corruption, investigate ties to local and national politicians and pursue their money launderers and contacts in the state.This is a tall order for a country whose institutions are increasingly co-opted by crime. It will require ongoing cooperation and courage on the part of the country’s police, prosecutors, judges and politicians. But it has been done before. Colombia could be a model. Beginning in 2006, that nation’s government began taking steps to investigate, prosecute and sentence over 60 members of Congress who aided and abetted drug-trafficking paramilitaries.President Lasso has invited the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Colombian police to assist in the investigation of Mr. Villavicencio’s killing. But for the effort to be truly effective, the cooperation on this case and others must continue into the next administration and beyond, regardless of who wins this Sunday.Ecuador’s leaders must resist the temptation to delegate the anti-crime fight entirely to the military, or to use firepower alone to beat back the cartels and gangs. That approach has proved ineffective in countries like Mexico, and has often made the violence worse. Instead, Ecuador’s leaders must support independent prosecutors, judges and the police.Ecuador’s armed forces, one of the nation’s most trusted institutions, is not designed to lead criminal investigations, track down money launderers or expose corrupt public servants. Those are jobs for civil institutions, like the police and judiciary. While these institutions are not immune to corruption and politicization among its ranks, they are not beyond saving.Polarization has carved deep rifts between Mr. Correa’s supporters and his opponents, including Mr. Villavicencio. In the last week, politicians on both sides have resorted to blaming one another for the deteriorating security situation. To move forward, they must unite behind a shared purpose — to investigate criminal groups’ ties to public officeholders without seeking to shield members of their own camp. Whoever wins the upcoming presidential election must look beyond political divisions and put country over party.Mr. Villavicencio’s killing marks an inflection point. But there is still time to act before the country progresses farther down the path Colombia and Mexico have traveled. It is what Mr. Villavicencio would have wanted.Will Freeman is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He focuses on understanding why developing democracies succeed or fail to end impunity for grand corruption.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      in World Politics

      The New Shift from Pink to Green in Latin America

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      As Venezuelan Antagonists Talk, the U.S. Softens Its Stance

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      Negotiations between the Venezuelan government and opposition could lead to an easing of the country’s protracted crisis.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — A rare meeting between leaders of Venezuela’s bitterly divided government and opposition is expected to result in two major agreements meant to ease the country’s complex political and humanitarian crisis.The meeting partly reflects the economic ripple effects of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which has reduced global oil supplies and pushed the United States to reconsider its restrictions on energy companies operating in Venezuela.If all goes as planned, the talks, scheduled for Saturday, will lead to an agreement to transfer up to $3 billion in Venezuelan government funds frozen overseas into a humanitarian program administered by the United Nations — a concession by President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, who has long denied the scope of the suffering that has unfolded under his tenure. At the same time, the United States is expected to approve a license request by Chevron Corp. to expand operations in Venezuela, according to three people familiar with the deal. The agreement could represent an important step toward allowing Venezuela to re-enter the international oil market, something Mr. Maduro desperately needs to improve the economy.U.S. State Department officials have publicly applauded the return to negotiations between the two parties, after an earlier effort was cut off by the Maduro government last year. But a Biden administration official familiar with the talks said that any action related to Chevron in Venezuela “is contingent on if the parties actually announce specific commitments to support the people of Venezuela.”The official requested anonymity to be able to speak freely about the matter.For years, Chevron and other oil companies have been prevented from large-scale operations in Venezuela by U.S. sanctions designed to starve Mr. Maduro’s government.President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela speaking in Caracas earlier this month.Federico Parra/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFollowing the expected accord, other companies are likely to press the United States to further lift Venezuela-related restrictions, including sanctions that ban entities in India and elsewhere from importing Venezuelan oil, said Francisco Monaldi, director of Rice University’s Latin America Energy Program.The United States is likely to tie such actions to further concessions by Mr. Maduro. But if it does lift the sanctions, that would be an economic “game changer” for Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Mr. Monaldi added.“My concern,” he said of the expected Chevron license, “is that the U.S. seems to be giving a lot for very little.”A Chevron spokesman would not comment on the expected agreement.The meeting between the Venezuelan government and opposition leaders, held in Mexico, is the outcome of more than a year of conversations between the two sides about how to address the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crisis, which dates to at least 2014.But the talks also are part of a larger softening of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, which many analysts say is related to a growing global need for non-Russian oil sources. Venezuela is believed to hold the largest oil reserves of any country.The United States is a supporter of the Venezuela dialogue, not a participant.The Biden administration official said that any action related to Chevron in Venezuela was not a response to energy prices. “This is about the regime taking the steps needed to support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” the person said.Any new license would be time-limited and would prevent Venezuela from receiving profits from the oil sales by Chevron, the official added, explaining that the Biden administration “would retain the authority to amend or revoke authorizations should the Maduro regime fail to negotiate in good faith.”For years, the Trump administration tried to weaken Mr. Maduro through sanctions and isolation, recognizing the opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president and pulling Washington’s top diplomats out of Caracas.The Biden administration has opted for more engagement.In June, the American ambassador to Venezuela, James Story, who is now based in neighboring Colombia, flew to Caracas to meet with government and opposition leaders. In October, the United States granted clemency to two nephews of Mr. Maduro’s wife in exchange for seven Americans held captive in Venezuela. The nephews had been sentenced to 18 years in prison for conspiring to smuggle cocaine.The Venezuelan opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, speaking in Caracas on Monday.Miguel Gutierrez/EPA, via ShutterstockIt would take years for Venezuela’s neglected oil infrastructure to have an impact on the global market. But with no sign that tensions between Russia and the West could ease soon, some leaders believe the wait could be worth it.“I think energy was one of the things that made it possible, perhaps politically, for Biden to take the rather bold step of communicating directly” with Mr. Maduro’s government, said Phil Gunson, an analyst with the International Crisis Group who has lived in Venezuela for more than two decades.But he cautioned that the American softening on Venezuela predated the war in Ukraine.“Energy is a factor” in the strategy shift, he said, but “it’s not the only factor.”Venezuela was once among the most affluent countries in Latin America, its economy buoyed by oil. But mismanagement and corruption by leaders claiming socialist ideals plunged the economy into disarray, while Mr. Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, gutted its democratic institutions.The situation has prompted the largest cross-border migration crisis in the Western Hemisphere, with more than 7 million Venezuelans — a quarter of the population — fleeing, according to the United Nations. Recently, a record number of Venezuelans have arrived at the U.S. border, most of them trekking through a harrowing jungle called the Darién Gap to get there.The talks in Mexico are supposed to be part of a series of meetings between the Venezuelan government and opposition. Much of the opposition hopes that political concessions will be next on the agenda.Mr. Maduro is focused on getting American sanctions lifted, which would help him improve the economy — and perhaps win a presidential election already slated for 2024.The Venezuelan opposition has long said its goal is to push Mr. Maduro to set free and fair conditions that would give them the opportunity to oust in him in that election.Mr. Guaidó recently called that vote “the door to democracy, freedom and the reunion of the family.”Lining up to vote during regional elections in Caracas last November.Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York TimesIn the past, Mr. Maduro has controlled the vote by banning many opposition figures from political participation, jailing others and co-opting many political parties. He holds elections to project a veneer of legitimacy.Speaking on state television about the Mexico talks this week, Mr. Maduro said he wanted to make it clear: “Nobody is going to impose anything on us, not today, not tomorrow, not ever.”The United States still recognizes Mr. Guaidó as the country’s president, though his global influence has fallen significantly after a bid to support him failed to oust Mr. Maduro.Mr. Monaldi, the energy expert, said the Chevron deal was not merely symbolic — within two years, the company could be pumping more than 200,000 barrels a day in Venezuela, adding to the approximately 765,000 barrels pumped daily today, according to Argus, an industry monitor.For the United States and for the opposition, the talks are a gamble.On the one hand, simply getting Mr. Maduro to negotiate is a victory, and the $3 billion humanitarian deal could be a major step toward alleviating suffering.On the other hand, said Mr. Gunson, the aid and the Chevron deal could improve economic conditions, lifting Mr. Maduro’s popularity.Still, he hasn’t given an inch on the political front.“That’s why there’s so much nail biting for the people in the administration who are pushing this policy,” said Mr. Gunson. “Because if Maduro essentially says, ‘Thank you very much,’ and doesn’t offer any concessions, then they’re going to look pretty foolish.”Isayen Herrera contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela, and Clifford Krauss from Houston. 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      Segunda vuelta en Brasil: lo que hay que saber

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      La votación se realizará tras una larga y dura campaña política que enfrenta a dos figuras políticas importantes en una contienda que ha puesto a prueba la democracia del país.Los brasileños acudirán a las urnas el domingo para elegir a un nuevo presidente en una disputada segunda vuelta entre dos candidatos que ofrecen visiones marcadamente distintas para el futuro de la democracia más grande de América Latina.El presidente de derecha, Jair Bolsonaro, ha movilizado a sus simpatizantes en torno a lo que califica como un ataque de la izquierda a los valores familiares y las libertades individuales. Ha caracterizado como enemigos a los académicos, los medios de comunicación e incluso a instituciones democráticas como el Congreso brasileño y el Supremo Tribunal Federal.El candidato de izquierda Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien es expresidente de la nación, ha prometido que gobernará para todos los brasileños y que devolverá el país a un pasado más próspero, aunque su propia historia de escándalos por corrupción ha dividido a los votantes.Durante la primera vuelta realizada el 2 de octubre, Da Silva obtuvo alrededor de seis millones de votos más que Bolsonaro —quien quedó en segundo lugar—, pero no alcanzó el umbral del 50 por ciento necesario para evitar una segunda vuelta. A Bolsonaro le fue mucho mejor de lo que habían pronosticado las encuestas, lo que sugiere que la contienda del domingo podría estar reñida.El domingo, la autoridad electoral comenzará a publicar los resultados después del cierre de las urnas, a las 4:00 p. m. hora del Este. El nuevo presidente prestará juramento el 1 de enero.El Times cubrirá las elecciones en vivo durante todo el día.Una parte de la selva amazónica es incendiada para extender las áreas de pastoreo de ganado en 2019, cerca de la ciudad de Porto Velho, en el estado de Rondônia.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Cuáles son los temas políticos más importantes?La elección sucede en un momento crucial para Brasil, en el que el aumento de los precios de los alimentos y el combustible, junto con una dolorosa desaceleración económica, han hecho que la vida sea más difícil para muchos brasileños. Alrededor de 33 millones de los 217 millones de habitantes del país padecen hambre. La pobreza se ha incrementado, lo que ha revertido décadas de progreso social y económico.Las preocupaciones ambientales y climáticas también ocupan un lugar preponderante. Bajo el gobierno de Bolsonaro —quien ha debilitado las protecciones ambientales y ha defendido la idea de que la selva tropical debería estar abierta a la minería, la ganadería y la agricultura— la deforestación en la Amazonía ha alcanzado niveles históricos en 15 años. La destrucción de la Amazonía y sus efectos en los esfuerzos para evitar una crisis climática ha convertido a Brasil en un paria global.También hay cuestionamientos persistentes sobre la salud de la democracia de Brasil. Bolsonaro ha sembrado dudas sobre la integridad del sistema electoral: ha afirmado, sin pruebas, que las máquinas electrónicas de votación del país pueden ser manipuladas. Bolsonaro ha dicho que, si pierde el domingo, solo será porque hubo fraude.Esto ha alimentado las preocupaciones —tanto en el país como en el extranjero— de que una potencial derrota de Bolsonaro pueda impulsarlo a atizar a sus millones de seguidores y pedirles que salgan a las calles a exigir que permanezca en el poder.Un desfile militar a favor del presidente Jair Bolsonaro en agostoVictor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Qué propone Bolsonaro?Bolsonaro ha prometido pagos en efectivo de alrededor de 113 dólares mensuales a las familias necesitadas, en lo que sería una extensión de una política temporal creada para aliviar las dificultades generadas por la pandemia.Continuar con ese programa, el cual remplazó una iniciativa similar pero menos generosa presentada por Da Silva, tiene como objetivo “reducir la pobreza y contribuir al crecimiento económico sostenible”, según el plan político oficial de Bolsonaro.En vísperas de las elecciones, Bolsonaro ha realizado un gran gasto en asistencia social y subsidios de combustible.También se comprometió a crear empleos a través de la eliminación de trámites burocráticos, recorte de impuestos e inversión en tecnología. En otro guiño a los líderes empresariales, quienes le brindaron un apoyo vital durante su primera contienda a la presidencia, Bolsonaro afirmó que mantendrá una estrategia de libre mercado y que mantendrá bajo control la deuda pública.Repitiendo la retórica que hace cuatro años le ganó el apoyo de los votantes ultraconservadores y evangélicos, Bolsonaro también ha prometido defender a “la familia”: se opondrá al aborto legal y a la educación trans en las escuelas.Bolsonaro también ha prometido expandir las políticas de mano dura contra el crimen y se comprometió a ampliar aún más el acceso a las armas de fuego, una política a la que le atribuye una reducción de los delitos violentos en todo Brasil.A retrato del expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un político de izquierda que contiende por la presidencia contra Bolsonaro, en São PauloVictor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Qué propone Da Silva?Da Silva lideró una era dorada de crecimiento durante sus dos periodos en la presidencia, cuando un auge impulsado por las materias primas convirtió a Brasil en una historia de éxito mundial. Da Silva ha prometido devolver el país a esos días de gloria.El candidato de izquierda ha prometido aumentarles los impuestos a los ricos e incrementar el gasto público, “metiendo a la gente en el presupuesto”. Sus planes incluyen una gran cantidad de programas sociales, como un vale mensual de 113 dólares para competir con el propuesto por Bolsonaro. Las familias pobres con niños recibirán adicionalmente otros 28 dólares mensuales por cada niño menor de 6 años.También ha prometido ajustar el salario mínimo de Brasil de acuerdo con la inflación y reactivar un plan de vivienda para los pobres, además de garantizar la seguridad alimentaria para las personas que padecen hambre.Da Silva, quien fue sindicalista, planea impulsar el crecimiento y “crear oportunidades de empleo” a través de la inversión en infraestructura. Sin embargo, también tiene planeado invertir en una “economía ecológica” y ha advertido que Brasil debe hacer la transición a sistemas energéticos y alimentarios más sostenibles.En cuanto a la Amazonía, ha afirmado que tomará medidas enérgicas contra los delitos ambientales cometidos por milicias, acaparadores de tierras, madereros y otros.Electores hacían fila para votar en la primera vuelta este mes en Brasilia, BrasilDado Galdieri para The New York Times¿Qué ha sucedido desde la primera vuelta?En la primera vuelta, Da Silva obtuvo el 48 por ciento de los votos, mientras que Bolsonaro recibió el 43 por ciento, superando significativamente las proyecciones de las encuestas preelectorales y planteando dudas sobre la credibilidad de las encuestadoras.Ese desacierto de los sondeos también le dio credibilidad a las afirmaciones de Bolsonaro de que las encuestas no reflejan con precisión su popularidad.Los sondeos previos a la votación del domingo muestran a Da Silva con una ventaja estrecha sobre Bolsonaro. Ambos candidatos están intensificando sus esfuerzos para apuntalar el apoyo de los votantes.Da Silva se ha centrado en proyectar un tono más moderado y forjar alianzas con candidatos presidenciales de centro que no pasaron la primera vuelta, como una forma de obtener parte de los 10 millones de votantes que los apoyaron.Bolsonaro se ha acercado a los gobernadores de derecha en los tres estados más poblados de Brasil, con la intención de convertir respaldos políticos en votos. También ha reclutado a líderes religiosos en su búsqueda por ampliar su ventaja entre los votantes evangélicos.Sin embargo, gran parte de la campaña —la cual ya está marcada por la desinformación y los feroces ataques en línea— se ha convertido en un festival de insultos y difamaciones en el que se debate poco sobre los desafíos que enfrentará el próximo líder del país.Bolsonaro ha intentado vincular a su rival con el satanismo, lo que impulsó a Da Silva a emitir un comunicado en el que confirmó que “no tiene un pacto” con el diablo. Por su parte, Da Silva ha aprovechado la difusión de videos poco halagadores de Bolsonaro que lo vinculan con la masonería, el canibalismo y la pedofilia.Inspectores del Tribunal Electoral realizan pruebas finales en máquinas de votación electrónica en São Paulo.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times¿Cómo funciona el proceso de votación?Los brasileños emitirán sus votos en máquinas electrónicas de votación, un sistema que ha estado vigente durante más de dos décadas y que ha sido el foco de las denuncias de Bolsonaro sobre el riesgo de fraude electoral.Unos 156 millones de brasileños cumplen con los requisitos para votar en las elecciones. Votar en Brasil es obligatorio, aunque la multa por no hacerlo es menor a un dólar y es mayormente simbólica. En la primera vuelta, la participación rondó el 79 por ciento.La participación por lo general suele ser menor en la segunda vuelta porque la eliminación de candidatos tras la primera vuelta mitiga el entusiasmo de algunos votantes. Algunos votantes más pobres que se inclinarían a favorecer a Da Silva también podrían quedarse en casa porque el costo de trasladarse hacia un centro electoral en un país tan grande puede llegar a ser un desincentivo. More

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      Bolsonaro vs. Lula: What to Know About Brazil’s Runoff Election

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      The vote comes after a long and ugly campaign that pits two major political figures against each other in race that has tested the country’s democracy.Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president in a bruising runoff between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the future of Latin America’s biggest democracy.The right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, has rallied supporters around what he calls a leftist attack on family values and individual liberties. He has cast academics, the media and even democratic institutions, including Brazil’s Congress and Supreme Court, as enemies.The leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president, has vowed to govern for all Brazilians, while returning the country to a more prosperous past, though his own history of corruption scandals has divided voters.During the first round of voting on Oct. 2, Mr. da Silva drew about six million more votes than Mr. Bolsonaro, who came in second, but he fell short of the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff. Mr. Bolsonaro did far better than pollsters had predicted, suggesting that Sunday’s race could be close.On Sunday, the electoral authority will start releasing results after polls close at 4 p.m. E.S.T. The new president will be sworn in on Jan. 1. The Times will be covering the election live all day.A section of the Amazon rainforest being burned to expand areas for cattle grazing in 2019, near the city of Porto Velho, in the state of Rondônia.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat are the issues?The election comes at a crucial moment for Brazil, where surging food and fuel prices, coupled with a painful economic slowdown, have made life harder for many Brazilians. About 33 million of the country’s 217 million people are experiencing hunger, while poverty has surged, reversing decades of social and economic progress.Environmental and climate worries also loom large. Deforestation in the Amazon has hit 15-year highs under Mr. Bolsonaro, who has weakened environmental protections and argued that the rainforest should be opened to mining, ranching and agriculture. The Amazon’s destruction — and its effects on the efforts to avert a climate crisis — has turned Brazil into a global outcast.There are also lingering questions about the health of Brazil’s democracy. Mr. Bolsonaro has sowed doubts about the integrity of the electoral system, claiming without evidence that the country’s electronic voting machines can be rigged. If he loses on Sunday, he has said, it would only be because of fraud.This has fueled worries — at home and abroad — that a potential loss for Mr. Bolsonaro may prompt him to rally his millions of supporters, calling on them to take to the streets and demand that he remain in power.A military parade for President Jair Bolsonaro in August.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat does Mr. Bolsonaro propose?Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to hand out cash payments of about $113 a month to needy families, extending a temporary policy originally created to ease the pandemic’s blow.Continuing the program, which replaced a similar but less generous initiative introduced under Mr. da Silva, is meant to “reduce poverty and contribute to sustainable economic growth,” according to Mr. Bolsonaro’s official policy plan.Ahead of the election, Mr. Bolsonaro has spent heavily on welfare and fuel subsidies.He has also pledged to create jobs by eliminating bureaucratic red tape, slashing taxes and investing in technology. In a further nod to business leaders, who provided him vital support during his first run for president, Mr. Bolsonaro said he would maintain a free market approach and keep public debt in check.Echoing the rhetoric that won him support from ultraconservative and evangelical voters four years ago, Mr. Bolsonaro also promises to defend “the family,” opposing legal abortion and transgender education in schools. Mr. Bolsonaro also promises to expand tough-on-crime policies, pledging to further expand access to firearms, a policy he credits for a drop in violent crime across Brazil.A banner in São Paulo in support of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist who is challenging Mr. Bolsonaro. Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesWhat does Mr. da Silva propose?Mr. da Silva oversaw a golden era of growth during his two terms in office, when a commodity-fueled boom turned Brazil into a global success story. He promises to return the country to those glory days.The leftist candidate vows to raise taxes on the rich and boost public spending, “putting the people in the budget.” His plans include a slew of social programs, such as a $113 monthly cash voucher rivaling the one proposed by Mr. Bolsonaro. Poor families with children will also receive another $28 per month for each child under 6.Mr. da Silva has also promised to adjust Brazil’s minimum wage in step with inflation and revive a housing plan for the poor, while guaranteeing food security for people facing hunger.A former trade unionist, Mr. da Silva plans to kick start growth and “create work and employment opportunities” by spending on infrastructure. But he also plans to invest in a “green economy,” warning that Brazil must shift to more sustainable energy and food systems.On the Amazon, Mr. da Silva has signaled that he will crack down on environmental crimes by militias, land grabbers, loggers and others.Voters lining up during the first round of voting this month in Brasília, Brazil.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesWhat has happened since the first vote?In the first round of voting, Mr. da Silva won 48 percent of the vote, while Mr. Bolsonaro received 43 percent of the vote, significantly outperforming pre-election polls and raising questions about the credibility of polling firms.The flawed polls also gave credence to Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that the surveys did not accurately reflect his popularity.Polls heading into Sunday’s vote show Mr. da Silva with a narrowing lead over Mr. Bolsonaro with both candidates intensifying efforts to shore up voter support.Mr. da Silva has focused on striking a more moderate tone and forging alliances with centrist presidential candidates who did not make it out of the first round as a way to win over some of the 10 million voters who cast ballots for them.Mr. Bolsonaro has cozied up to right-wing governors in Brazil’s three most populous states, seeking to turn political endorsements into votes. He has also enlisted religious leaders in his quest to widen his advantage among evangelical voters.Still, much of the campaign — already marked by misinformation and vicious online attacks — has devolved into mudslinging with little discussion of the challenges the country’s next leader will face.Mr. Bolsonaro’s has tried to tie his rival to Satanism, prompting Mr. da Silva to issue a statement confirming that he “does not have a pact” with the devil. Mr. da Silva, for his part, has seized on unflattering videos of Mr. Bolsonaro that link him to freemasonry, cannibalism and pedophilia.Electoral Court inspectors carry out final tests on electronic voting machines in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesHow does the vote work?Brazilians will cast ballots on electronic voting machines, a system that has been in place for more than two decades and that has been the focus of Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims about the risk of election fraud.Some 156 million Brazilians are eligible to cast a ballot in the election. Voting in Brazil is compulsory, though the fine for not casting a ballot is less than a dollar and mostly symbolic. In the first round, turnout was roughly 79 percent.Turnout typically falls in the second round because the elimination of candidates after the first round dampens enthusiasm among some voters. Some poorer voters who would tend to favor Mr. da Silva might also sit out the runoff because the cost of getting to the polls in such a sprawling country can be a disincentive. More

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      Two Futures Face Off in Brazil

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      Rachelle Bonja and Liz O. Baylen and Chelsea Daniel, Dan Powell and Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | StitcherVoters in Brazil on Sunday will choose between two larger-than-life, populist candidates in a presidential race that is widely seen as the nation’s — and Latin America’s — most important election in decades.Who are the candidates, and why is the future of Brazilian democracy also on the ballot?On today’s episodeJack Nicas, the Brazil bureau chief for The New York Times.Voters in Brazil on Sunday will choose between two candidates who have very different visions for the country.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesBackground readingThe contest — a matchup between Brazil’s two biggest political heavyweights — could swing either way and promises to prolong what has already been a bruising battle that has polarized the nation and tested the strength of its democracy.For the past decade, Brazil has lurched from one crisis to the next. Brazilians will decide between two men who are deeply tied to its tumultuous past.There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Jack Nicas contributed reporting.The Daily is made by Lisa Tobin, Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, Brad Fisher, Chris Wood, Jessica Cheung, Stella Tan, Alexandra Leigh Young, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Marc Georges, Luke Vander Ploeg, M.J. Davis Lin, Dan Powell, Dave Shaw, Sydney Harper, Robert Jimison, Mike Benoist, Liz O. Baylen, Asthaa Chaturvedi, Rachelle Bonja, Diana Nguyen, Marion Lozano, Corey Schreppel, Anita Badejo, Rob Szypko, Elisheba Ittoop, Chelsea Daniel, Mooj Zadie, Patricia Willens, Rowan Niemisto, Jody Becker, Rikki Novetsky, John Ketchum, Nina Feldman, Will Reid, Carlos Prieto, Sofia Milan, Ben Calhoun and Susan Lee.Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Paula Szuchman, Lisa Tobin, Larissa Anderson, Cliff Levy, Lauren Jackson, Julia Simon, Mahima Chablani, Desiree Ibekwe, Wendy Dorr, Elizabeth Davis-Moorer, Jeffrey Miranda, Renan Borelli, Maddy Masiello and Nell Gallogly. More